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Who is this season's MVP? (1 Viewer)
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Colin Dowling
Footballguy
Kind of tough to not give it to Alexander, although I think Manning, Palmer, Brady, and Tiki all have made strong cases.
I vote other.
SSOG
Moderator
Tie: Tom Nalen, Willie Roaf. Nalen's spearheading a line that could potentially block for TWO thousand yard rushers, as well as having given up the third fewest sacks in the NFL. Roaf has CLEARLY stated his case- just look at how much different the KC team was with him in and with him out. Night and day. I'd give it to Nalen, just because he plays for a better team, and because he hasn't missed any time.Honorable mention: Walter Jones, Levi Jones, Brian Urlacher, Jeff Saturday, Tom Brady... in that order.What, you think Mike Anderson, Tatum Bell, Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Rudi Johnson, Carson Palmer, and Peyton Manning block for themselves? Urlacher and Brady make it because they are the most important pieces of one of the NFL's best units, and on teams where they absolutely have to CARRY the other unit.If you're talking fantasy football, Antonio Gates, no question.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Poor Olinemen, no recognition, yet the most important part of any football team.I voted for Brady myself. I still don't know how that team managed to hang in early in the year, yet here they are heading into the playoffs and possibly as hot/playing as well as any team in the league. I think he single handedly willed that team to win on several occasions. Possibly his best season ever and his team doesn't sniff the playoffs without him. I think he's beyond the rest in this regard, and to me that's what an MVP is al about.
Tiki's a good choice as well, followed by Peyton.
I don't understand the Alexander votes - yeah he's had a nice year statistically but there's a lot more going on in Seattle than just Alexander. Tiki's a good choice as well, followed by Peyton.
jurb26
Footballguy
Are you kidding? Just a nice year statistically! The guy leads the league in rushing, is averaging 5.2 a carry and set the NFL ALL TIME TD record in just 15 games. All the while being on a 13-2 team with hoome field throughout the playoffs. He isn't just having a nice season. He is having a historic one and doing it on one of the most dominating teams in the NFL right now. If there were a guide created somewhere to explain what you had to do to get the MVP award it would list all of the following and possibly less. Alexander is an easy choice. The Oline sentiment is nice and feel good but completly unrealistic.
SSOG
Moderator
Agreed. You'll notice that Seattle has already re-upped with Hasselback, who was the consensus #1 QB in the entire NFC this season, but has yet to show Alexander the money? Word around Seattle is that they think Alexander is soft, doesn't fight for extra yardage, and has largely been successful as the result of dominant blocking by the line.I agree that Barber's another good choice, in terms of being the ENTIRE offense. I think Tiki Barber and Tom Brady are the two players who would cost their teams the most wins if they missed the season (and Peyton, too, of course). If that's how you measure MVP, then those are your guys.
Winston Smith
Footballguy
But is he the most valuable player? If you replace Alexander with, say, Maurice Morris, how much worse is Seattle? My money is on Carson Palmer. He's been an absolute stud. Steve Smith is a strong second place finish.
Winston Smith
Footballguy
I would vote for Palmer, Steve Smith, Tiki, Brady, and Manning over Alexander.
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Doug Drinen
Moderator
OK, I'll bite. Why Gates over Alexander for fantasy purposes?Sorry for the hijack.
SSOG
Moderator
Not fishing at all. Obviously they think that Shaun Alexander is a lot more easily replaced than Walter Jones. I've never heard of a good characteristic of a league MVP being "easily replaceable".What were we saying when Emmitt was doing the same thing? Nothing, because Dallas showed Emmitt the money LONG before he ever got a WHIFF of the free agent market. Dallas knew that Emmitt was indespensible and did what it had to in order to keep him around.
Besides, as I've said, word out of Seattle is that the coaching staff thinks Alexander is soft, and in large part a product of the offensive line.
Like I said, Seattle had a bunch of free agents this last off-season. They gave Matt Hasselback and Walter Jones BOTH huge long-term contracts, and basically said to Shaun Alexander "you aren't nearly as important to our team as either of those guys". And they haven't backed off of that stance yet. Usually the MVP of the league should be the MVP of his own team, as well.
I've added Steve Smith and other.
SSOG
Moderator
Because I forgot to include week 16 numbers. You're correct, after last week, Alexander passes Gates for the fantasy MVP. Before that, though, Antonio Gates was worth far more compared to the #2 guy at his position than Alexander was. Antonio Gates simply provided the most scoring differential.
Winston Smith
Footballguy
I have no hate whatsoever for Alexander. He's a very good back, playing behind a powerhouse offensive line. I just don't think Alexander is the most valuable player in the league. I think he could be replaced by at least 6-8 other NFL running backs who could put up comparable, and in a few cases, better numbers. I don't think you can say that with Carson Palmer, which is why he gets my vote.
I'm not saying Gates was more valuable than Alexander, but I can offer a reason why somebody would say it: Alexander was a top two pick, while Gates was generally a third or fourth round pick. So Gates may have produced more surplus value above his cost. (Not that that's the proper way to determine fantasy MVP status, but there's an argument to be made for it.)
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If it's that close, Gates may still get the nod. You should add a point or two for Gates in week one. He got a zero while he sat out, but his owners knew he was going to sit out, so they would have started a replacement TE and gotten some points. (In fact, week 1 was weird for TE scoring. They could have started a replacement TE and gotten a lot of points.)
Doug Drinen
Moderator
If that's the argument, then it'd be tough for Gates to make a case over Larry Johnson.But back to Alexander vs. Gates, it's not even close. Give Gates 10 points for his predictable absence in week one (and don't penalize him for the roster spot that it cost), and here's what you've got:
Margin over #2: Alexander - 49, Gates - 47
Margin over #5: Alexander - 83, Gates - 62
Margin over #10: Alexander - 154, Gates - 99
Margin over #20: Alexander - 197, Gates - 120
The difference between Gates and a scrap heap TE is maybe 120 points. The difference between Alexander and a scrap heap RB is about 250 points.
The difference between Gates and a zero is the difference between Alexander and Warrick Dunn, who was the #12 RB. So if you've got Gates and I've got Alexander, you need to use your fourth-round pick on an RB to catch up. And that's with me taking a flat out zero at TE.
Larry Johnson was the fantasy MVP this year, IMO.I bet he's on more fantasy championship teams than any other player. (Can we look that up at myfantasyleague.com somehow?)
If I've got Gates and you've got Alexander, I don't have a fourth round pick anymore. I probably spent it on Gates.But I still have a first-rounder. You don't.
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Here's how I'd measure surplus value over cost, if that's what we're doing.I'd take FBG's preseason projections and use them to come up with an expected value (in terms of VBD X-value) for each draft slot. (E.g., the top pick would be Tomlinson's projected x-value; the second pick would be Alexander's projected x-value; and so on -- assuming that the remaining player with the highest projected x-value will always be selected next.)Then I'd use ADP to see where Alexander and Gates were typically taken.Then I'd subtract Alexander's draft slot's expected x-value from Alexander's actual x-value, and do the same for Gates.That's not actually exactly what I'd do, but it's close enough. (I'd actually use auction values instead of expected x-values -- but for purposes of comparing two obvious every-week starters, using x-values is close enough.) I may also throw in a couple points for Gates in week one, although I would also subtract something for the extra fractional roster spot his replacement would take up. (Fractional because most FF teams carry two TEs anyway. A replacement TE costs an extra roster spot only on teams that otherwise wouldn't have carried a second TE.)
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Brock Middlebrook
Footballguy
Walter JonesSAlex has really struggled when he hasn't been in the lineup
Brock Middlebrook
Footballguy
HTF does Walter Jones not get on this list but Will Sheilds does?That's just not right
Tau837
Footballguy
Interesting to think about this.First off, when we use the valuable criteria as you are applying it, there are still different approaches. Do we judge based on what another top n player at the same position would do in the player's place? For example, what 6-8 other RBs would do on Seattle this year.
Or do we judge based on the player's team's current roster? Meaning that if we take away Alexander, Morris is his replacement? And Kitna is Palmer's replacement? And Sorgi is Manning's replacement?
Big difference, obviously.
rockbottom895
Footballguy
Id have to go with Carson Palmer, although Shaun Alexander was my next pick. Although Shaun is the best back in the league, he hasnt played against tuff rush defenses. Carson Palmer has transformed into one of the best QB's in the league in just one season. He has also completly turned around the Bengals. Because of his domanance, they are finally going to the playoffs, and in my opinion, they have a pretty good chance of going pretty far.
jurb26
Footballguy
The fact that SD had no other players worth signing long term and to big contracts at the time they did LT does not mean anything in the scheme of what is going on in Sea. The situations are and have been vastly different the entire time. The fact is, SD used to suck and had no other players worth signing other than LT. Their supply of worthy candidates to sign long term was MINIMAL at best. Sea has no such problems and that doesn't even consider the severl lack of availablity of stud Tackles in FA or QBs you know play well within your system. Let me ask you this: Do you think Sea gives LT the contract in Sea that they have been holding out on giving SA? I say no. Again this boils down to SUPPLY and DEMAND. FA has changed things and RBs are seeing that more than any other position.
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SSOG
Moderator
Actually that wouldn't guarantee him the MVP at all. I seem to recall Priest Holmes setting the current TD record in 2003. I also seem to recall Priest Holmes not winning the league MVP.
I actually DID give Brady props... but in the end, I don't think it matters what string the offensive linemen are, I think it matters how much time the O-linemen buy the QB to throw, and in Brady's case, it's been A LOT. He's been one of the best-protected QBs in the NFL this season, regardless of who is on his line.
simey
Footballguy
I think Thomas Jones should be added to that list. He has carried his team offensively this year. He only missed one game due to injury, and he has run very well, even while opposing defenses have repeatedly stacked the box against the run. He has been very valuable to the Bears this year. I know he won't win MVP, but I think he deserves to be mentioned among MVP candidates.
SSOG
Moderator
The best offensive player on a team with a brutal offense and a record-setting defense does not qualify as an MVP candidate.
Manning, Plummer, and Favre all have him beat, cold. Especially Plummer and Favre. They're routinely among the least-sacked QBs despite having an offensive line that is below average in pass protection.That said, I wasn't looking at sack totals when I claimed that Brady's line was buying him all kinds of time. I was watching New England games and saying to myself "Wow, Brady's line is buying him all kinds of time".
valhallan
Footballguy
I'm not talking about scrambling away from the pass rush to make plays, I'm talking about maintaining and moving within the pocket. And I don't know what games you're watching, but Manning's pocket presence is horrible. His feet jiggle like a tap dancer's and as soon as the pressure is on he panics. As for Brady, he has a flawless dropback motion and an incredible ability make slight scoots left/right/forward/backward depending on how the pocket in collapsing. His ability to dropback the correct distance and scoot when needed almost always leaves his lineman in position to take care of the pass rushers.All of that may sound simple, but it's not. So many quarterbacks dropback way too far and speed rushers like Freeney and Rice just blow past the tackles. Many quarterbacks also freak out when they sense pressure, rather than adjusting as Brady does. IMO, it's not arm strength, vision, or moxy that makes Brady successful, it's his mechanics.
That said, I agree that his line is solid, even with 3rd stringers. I just happen to think his pocket presence contributes to their protection much more than most realize.
And back to the topic, Palmer deserves it.
