Who is this year's Santana Moss? (1 Viewer)

[*****]

Last year, I read a post on this board which convinced me that Santana Moss was going to be a great value pick and perform way above his average draft position.

The logic of the posting was this: Santana Moss was a person who had demonstrated talent in the past but was leaving a struggling offense with QB problems. He was going to the Redskins who likewise had problems of their own. However, Moss was going to replace Laverneous Coles who had nearly the highest number of targets in the league (in 2004) but had a pretty low reception percentage and flukey 2 touchdown season.

I found the poster's argument convincing: if Moss got only 80% of the targets Coles got in Washington and didn't bomb out his reception percentage and had even a modest number of TDs, he was going to beat his 2005 ADP by a mile.

I drafted Moss late and enjoyed exceptional value.

Anyone got their eye on this year's Moss? Anyone know who that is? I'd love to hear similarly compelling arguments as to why a particular player is going to rebound or excell this year where maybe they did not last year?

 

[wannabee]

I have COles

 

[*****]

BTW, my nominee for now is Muhsin Muhammed...he had only 64 receptions on 136 targets (and it wasn't because he stinks). That seems like it can only go up from here and he's available in the early part of the 8th round. Plus, some will feel the sting of having selected him early last year. He does have a ceiling in Chicago but he can still represent good value if his target numbers are similar.

 

[ImTheScientist]

 

[redman]

Ironically, I think one candiate is on Moss's team, and that's Brandon Lloyd. I figure Lloyd to outperform his draft position because I think people will overestimate both Moss's production and also Randle El's role in the offense.

 

[aposulli]

BTW, my nominee for now is Muhsin Muhammed...he had only 64 receptions on 136 targets (and it wasn't because he stinks). That seems like it can only go up from here and he's available in the early part of 8th round. Plus, some will feel the sting of having selected him last year. He does have ceiling in Chicago but he can still represent good value if his target numbers are similar.

 

[redman]

What about NE's WR's? Who are they, you ask? Exactly . . .

 

[matuski]

Koren Robinson

 

[ImTheScientist]

Ironically, I think one candiate is on Moss's team, and that's Brandon Lloyd. I figure Lloyd to outperform his draft position because I think people will overestimate both Moss's production and also Randle El's role in the offense.

I agree 100%, shhhhhhhh ...... Check his YPC in san fran .... if he gets 100-120 targets watch out!! He ranked as WR#31 overall in San Fran ..... will be much better in Wash.Current FBG's ranking WR#49 Staff Member with the highest ranking WR#36 John Norton Should outperform his ranking

 

[oswizzle]

A.Bryant

 

[Bobcat10]

Key Johnson

 

[Z-Dog]

My top candidate is Matt Jones - the guy is stepping into the X position that Jimmy Smith started in, and like Smith, will garner an outsize proportion of the targets.

 

[Goooals]

Marty Booker could be a steal late in the draft. Chambers will draw all the attention with Cullpeper throwing the ball. Don't forget Booker was a number 1 receiver and put up great back to back season in Chicago.

 

[CA_7]

What about NE's WR's? Who are they, you ask? Exactly . . .

Ben Watson

 

[brakeyawself]

I like M. Jones there too. A few others, Givens, M booker, Lelie if there's a trade and in the later rounds, VJax, or D. Gabriel.

 

[Angry Beavers]

Ironically, I think one candiate is on Moss's team, and that's Brandon Lloyd. I figure Lloyd to outperform his draft position because I think people will overestimate both Moss's production and also Randle El's role in the offense.

I agree 100%, shhhhhhhh ...... Check his YPC in san fran .... if he gets 100-120 targets watch out!! He ranked as WR#31 overall in San Fran ..... will be much better in Wash.Current FBG's ranking WR#49 Staff Member with the highest ranking WR#36 John Norton Should outperform his ranking

Now quit talking about him already as my competition lurks here

 

[Monse]

I like the Antonio Bryant call. Reports are saying that he is working hard and is trying to build a chemistry with Smith.

 

[Team Legacy]

I think the definition of this year's Santana Moss needs to be cleared up.

The facts about Santana Moss in 2005.

1. Went to a new team in 2005.

2. Undisputed # 1 on his team.

3. Down year in 2004.

4. Previous top 10 season in 2003.

Now, that's going to be hard to find.

However, one name FITS THE BILL, provided there's an injury to Rod Smith. >>> Javon Walker.

 

[fsufan]

My top candidate is Matt Jones - the guy is stepping into the X position that Jimmy Smith started in, and like Smith, will garner an outsize proportion of the targets.

 

[AB in DC]

Koren Robinson comes pretty close.

1. Went to a new team in 2005, not 2006, but it was in September so he didn't have time to practice or learn the playbook -- basically a lost year for him (in more ways than one)

2. Childress is treating him as the #1.

3. Down years in 2003-4

4. Was WR#14 in 2002.

Drew Bennett isn't going to a new team, but has a new OC and may be getting back the QB that threw to him a ton a few years ago. Not sure if he's a clear #1 over Givens, though.

 

[Hue G]

I like Nate Burleson, I don't think he'll put up S. Moss 05' numbers but I think he'll outperform his ADP by quite a bit.

 

[Isotopes]

Javon Walker. Won't be around late, but has potential to be top 5. Prior to injury he was projected to be a top 5 fantasy wr.....Plummer is no Favre, but he is serviceable enough to make Walker an elite fantasy wr.

 

[aposulli]

I think the definition of this year's Santana Moss needs to be cleared up.The facts about Santana Moss in 2005. 1. Went to a new team in 2005. 2. Undisputed # 1 on his team.3. Down year in 2004. 4. Previous top 10 season in 2003. Now, that's going to be hard to find. However, one name FITS THE BILL, provided there's an injury to Rod Smith. >>> Javon Walker.

Just because someone fits those particular details doesn't mean he's teh next Santana Moss and it especially doesn't mean they may or may not perform like Moss circa 2005.What the guy is looking for is just someone that will significantly outperform his ADP.Muhammad.And funny if you were to describe Moose:1. Has a new QB in 2006. 2. Undisputed # 1 on his team.3. Down year in 2005. 4. Previous top 10 season in 2004.

 

[wraith5]

I think the definition of this year's Santana Moss needs to be cleared up.The facts about Santana Moss in 2005. 1. Went to a new team in 2005. 2. Undisputed # 1 on his team.3. Down year in 2004. 4. Previous top 10 season in 2003. Now, that's going to be hard to find. However, one name FITS THE BILL, provided there's an injury to Rod Smith. >>> Javon Walker.

I like Walker a lot in his situation. Roy Williams in a Martz offense - and a defense that will have the Lions playing from behind. What about Terry Glenn? Owens taking most of the heat, Witten having to stay in for protection more often to support the O-line...

 

[Z-Dog]

Koren Robinson comes pretty close.1. Went to a new team in 2005, not 2006, but it was in September so he didn't have time to practice or learn the playbook -- basically a lost year for him (in more ways than one)2. Childress is treating him as the #1.3. Down years in 2003-44. Was WR#14 in 2002.Drew Bennett isn't going to a new team, but has a new OC and may be getting back the QB that threw to him a ton a few years ago. Not sure if he's a clear #1 over Givens, though.

Yeah, his ADP is really low, all things considered. And the uncertainty at QB reminds me of the 'skins also.Another guy worth talking about in this conversation is Derrick Mason. Last year was a small dip for him, but an overaccentuated one in FF circles b/c he only had 3 TDs. With McNair aboard, he should rebound. And I suppose wherever Jerry Porter lands, he's someone worth keeping an eye out for.

 

[redman]

How about Eric Moulds? He's not being treated as a #1 in Houston, but everthing else seems to apply.

 

[SammyJankis]

I think the definition of this year's Santana Moss needs to be cleared up.The facts about Santana Moss in 2005. 1. Went to a new team in 2005. 2. Undisputed # 1 on his team.3. Down year in 2004. 4. Previous top 10 season in 2003. Now, that's going to be hard to find. However, one name FITS THE BILL, provided there's an injury to Rod Smith. >>> Javon Walker.

Just because someone fits those particular details doesn't mean he's teh next Santana Moss and it especially doesn't mean they may or may not perform like Moss circa 2005.What the guy is looking for is just someone that will significantly outperform his ADP.Muhammad.And funny if you were to describe Moose:1. Has a new QB in 2006. 2. Undisputed # 1 on his team.3. Down year in 2005. 4. Previous top 10 season in 2004.

Muhammad is my candidate as well. Traded for him in my dynasty league for a reasonable price.I keep hearing that "anyone expecting him to repeat his 2004 numbers will be disappointed". I think that goes without saying. But I also think that all things being equal, going from a late round rookie QB throwing the ball to a decent vet throwing you the ball, you can expect a jump in numbers.Plus, the blogger had an article about Muhammad being in great shape, and he's been getting good reviews in Bears camp.

 

[wraith5]

But I also think that all things being equal, going from a late round rookie QB throwing the ball to a decent vet throwing you the ball, you can expect a jump in numbers.Plus, the blogger had an article about Muhammad being in great shape, and he's been getting good reviews in Bears camp.

I assume you're talking about Griese?!? 'Cause last I checked Muhammad will have Rex (sort of) throwing the ball...

 

[SammyJankis]

But I also think that all things being equal, going from a late round rookie QB throwing the ball to a decent vet throwing you the ball, you can expect a jump in numbers.Plus, the blogger had an article about Muhammad being in great shape, and he's been getting good reviews in Bears camp.

I assume you're talking about Griese?!? 'Cause last I checked Muhammad will have Rex (sort of) throwing the ball...

I've read that Grossman has actually looked quite good in camp so far. Regardless, I would hold both Griese and Grossman as major upgrades as opposed to a 4th round rookie QB chucking the rock all season long.

 

[wraith5]

But I also think that all things being equal, going from a late round rookie QB throwing the ball to a decent vet throwing you the ball, you can expect a jump in numbers.

Plus, the blogger had an article about Muhammad being in great shape, and he's been getting good reviews in Bears camp.

I assume you're talking about Griese?!? 'Cause last I checked Muhammad will have Rex (sort of) throwing the ball...

I've read that Grossman has actually looked quite good in camp so far. Regardless, I would hold both Griese and Grossman as major upgrades as opposed to a 4th round rookie QB chucking the rock all season long.

I'm an upgrade over Neck-Beard - Grossman looking "quite good" is encouraging, but there isn't enough history to really make a sound judgement here. Rex also seems to spread the ball around (not just to the opposing DEF, I mean). I'm not sure Mushu will have any more receptions than Berrian when it's all over...

 

[Beaumont]

A.Bryant

 

[LHUCKS]

You will have the answer after I'm done drafting in my FBG related leagues...one of my two that fit the S. Moss criteria has not been mentioned yet.

 

[djb916420]

excellent critiques LHUCKS

 

[[icon]]

If steve smith continues to have issues with his leg, Keychain should do quite well

 

[J-Rock]

You will have the answer after I'm done drafting in my FBG related leagues...one of my two that fit the S. Moss criteria has not been mentioned yet.

You can't be talking about T.O. because he'll be off the board in the 2nd or 3rd round. 2 guys who come to mind (neither changed teams like Moss) are DJax and Michael Clayton. In a recent draft I took DJax in the 5th and Clayton in the 9th. If healthy I think DJax could challenge for a top 5 spot and if Clayton can return to his 2004 form he'll represent great value.

 

[Sabertooth]

I like Keyshawn and Moose. I like Keyshawn because if Steve Smith were to get hurt, he'll get a ton of accurate targets from Jake Delhomme. Jake has been a "lock-on" type QB and it would seem reasonable that his target would be Keyshawn if something happened to Smith.

I like Moose to have a nice rebound this season as well. He's obviously got the talent and with the QB depth in Chicago, he won't be doomed if Rex goes down again. Also Rex is much much better than the rest of the schlubs they trotted out last season and the year before.

 

[LHUCKS]

I think the definition of this year's Santana Moss needs to be cleared up.The facts about Santana Moss in 2005. 1. Went to a new team in 2005. 2. Undisputed # 1 on his team.3. Down year in 2004. 4. Previous top 10 season in 2003. Now, that's going to be hard to find.

this is the correct way to break it down, although I think Legacy is missing a key factor.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

You will have the answer after I'm done drafting in my FBG related leagues...one of my two that fit the S. Moss criteria has not been mentioned yet.

Derrick Mason?

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

List of #1 WRs that

a) Going to a new team or new QB

b) Had a down year last year

Some fit the profile better than others.

Laveranues Coles

Derrick Mason

Eric Moulds?

Javon Walker?

Randy Moss

Terrell Owens

Muhsin Muhammad

Joe Horn

 

[Fodasme69]

You will have the answer after I'm done drafting in my FBG related leagues...one of my two that fit the S. Moss criteria has not been mentioned yet.

Derrick Mason?

 

[PACKER 7]

I guess he really doesn't fit the S. Moss mold, but if you're looking for value at the WR position.... look no further than J. Horn.

He's got a new QB, Bush, Deuce, New Coach.

I like Horn, and you can get him cheap this year. Just my 2 cents.

+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Rushing | Receiving |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 1996 kan | 10 | 1 8 8.0 0 | 2 30 15.0 0 |

| 1997 kan | 8 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 2 65 32.5 0 |

| 1998 kan | 16 | 1 0 0.0 0 | 14 198 14.1 1 |

| 1999 kan | 16 | 2 15 7.5 0 | 35 586 16.7 6 |

| 2000 nor | 16 | 6 18 3.0 0 | 94 1340 14.3 8 |

| 2001 nor | 16 | 1 4 4.0 0 | 83 1265 15.2 9 |

| 2002 nor | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 88 1312 14.9 7 |

| 2003 nor | 15 | 2 15 7.5 0 | 78 973 12.5 10 |

| 2004 nor | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 94 1399 14.9 11 |

| 2005 nor | 13 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 49 654 13.3 1 |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| TOTAL | 142 | 13 60 4.6 0 | 539 7822 14.5 53 |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

 

[PACKER 7]

Also a guy that keeps improving every year, TJ Housh. Chad Johnson hides this guy really well, but don't sleep on him. I think he'll break the 1000yd mark this season too.

He can be had way later and will provide good value.

+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Rushing | Receiving |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 2001 cin | 14 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 21 228 10.9 0 |

| 2002 cin | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 41 492 12.0 1 |

| 2004 cin | 16 | 6 51 8.5 0 | 73 978 13.4 4 |

| 2005 cin | 14 | 8 62 7.8 1 | 78 956 12.3 7 |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| TOTAL | 60 | 14 113 8.1 1 | 213 2654 12.5 12 |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

 

[jurb26]

Lee Evens

Troy Williamson

BTW, you stole my Moss arguement from last year.

 

[massraider]

I just wound up taking Muhammad as my 3rd receiver, and Burleson as my 4th. If Darrell Jackson's injury woes linger, you could be looking at a big payoff for Burleson. I still think he's a good WR4, but could easily put up WR2 numbers.

I think Givens is a guy who will outperform his ADP, as well. If I can score him as my 5th WR, I'll feel great about my WR's.

Michael Clayton is a good call, but I think a lot of guys are keeping an eye on him, he hasn't fallen far in the drafts I've seen. Just my personal experience.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

the correct answer is: Drew Bennett (WR, Tenn)

watch and see!

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

What about NE's WR's? Who are they, you ask? Exactly . . .

Reche Caldwell.With Branch being out, it's allowing he & Brady to get on the same page. I keep bumping him up.He wont have a S.Moss type season. But nice value none-the-less.

 

[FTRWRTR]

I like the Antonio Bryant call. Reports are saying that he is working hard and is trying to build a chemistry with Smith.

Ppl need to stop fixating on davis and look at bryant. His career average is 14.8 ypr, he had a 1,000 yard season with trent dilfer as his main qb and alex smith can't be worse(and guess who is their backup qb is if smith can't get it done), and bryant's the #1 wr on a team with a poor defense in a pass happy division

 

[jurb26]

I like the Antonio Bryant call. Reports are saying that he is working hard and is trying to build a chemistry with Smith.

Ppl need to stop fixating on davis and look at bryant. His career average is 14.8 ypr, he had a 1,000 yard season with trent dilfer as his main qb and alex smith can't be worse(and guess who is their backup qb is if smith can't get it done), and bryant's the #1 wr on a team with a poor defense in a pass happy division

Bryant should not be coming out of nowhere this year. Not so sure he mathces up well with the S.Moss comparison.

 

[FTRWRTR]

I like the Antonio Bryant call. Reports are saying that he is working hard and is trying to build a chemistry with Smith.

Ppl need to stop fixating on davis and look at bryant. His career average is 14.8 ypr, he had a 1,000 yard season with trent dilfer as his main qb and alex smith can't be worse(and guess who is their backup qb is if smith can't get it done), and bryant's the #1 wr on a team with a poor defense in a pass happy division

Bryant should not be coming out of nowhere this year. Not so sure he mathces up well with the S.Moss comparison.

I believe the first poster was asking for wrs who would out perform their adp much as s. moss did. According to www.antsports.com in a 12 team league bryant is the 42nd wr being taken and his adp is 10:10 so despite the fact that some of us in the ff community are fully aware of him apparently there are a lot of ppl who aren't

 

[jurb26]

I like the Antonio Bryant call. Reports are saying that he is working hard and is trying to build a chemistry with Smith.

Ppl need to stop fixating on davis and look at bryant. His career average is 14.8 ypr, he had a 1,000 yard season with trent dilfer as his main qb and alex smith can't be worse(and guess who is their backup qb is if smith can't get it done), and bryant's the #1 wr on a team with a poor defense in a pass happy division

Bryant should not be coming out of nowhere this year. Not so sure he mathces up well with the S.Moss comparison.

I believe the first poster was asking for wrs who would out perform their adp much as s. moss did. According to www.antsports.com in a 12 team league bryant is the 42nd wr being taken and his adp is 10:10 so despite the fact that some of us in the ff community are fully aware of him apparently there are a lot of ppl who aren't

Wow, that ADP is way too low. Didn't realize it was so low. This guy really is just a whipping boy of FFers.