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Who is your pick as 2013 rookie dynasty sleeper (ADP>20, lets say) (1 Viewer)

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traderallenpoe

Footballguy
I hope title is specific enough to make my point clear, but Im looking to open up a discussion about potential home runs, or "high-risk/high-reward" that folks may want to take a swing at in the later rounds of their draft? With such an especially weak year this year, I am in full on shot taking mode when it comes to any of my picks after the first round (I have 12 and 14, next pick isnt until 30)

I guess I'll take a shot- Love the upside of Travis Klece (going in 20s) whose fantasy potential I consider to be equal to or even greater than that of Eifert, who has been pretty much a consensus Top-10 pick with much hype of his own. I was watching some college footage of TK, this kid is an absolute man-child.

 
There's a couple 3rd round rookie WRs I like: Josh Boyce, Chris Harper, Charles Johnson, and Aaron Mellette. Boyce and Mellette both have opportunity to make some noise in their rookie season. Harper is probably a year or two away. Johnson is more of a longer-term stash in GB, but I like him.

 
I think the only skill position group that was above average was the TE group. A lot of the guys landed on teams that already have established TEs ahead of them. But I think in the long run a couple of these guys that were taken in the first 3 rounds (Eifert, Ertz, McDonald, Kelce, Escobar and Reed) are going to hit pretty big. i think all of them are guys who were taken with the idea they would be offensive weapons and not to be used primarily as blockers like you see in some TE classes.

Kind of depends on how deep your rosters are though as I think you may have to hold for a few years before seeing any real return. Especially with guys like Escobar and McDonald. I have a couple leagues with 30 man rosters and feel better about grabbing and holding one or two of these guys there than in my leagues that have 22 or 23 man rosters where it is much tougher to be patient with long term, later round rookie investments.

 
I think the guy in the best situation that is going towards the latter end of round 1 and early 2 is Stacy.

I don't see either of the TE's being in good situations.

 
If you're in a deep league, Marquess Wilson is the guy for me. The kid can play, looked great at the combine in positional drills but got into trouble due to the Wash St. scandal or whatever the hell that was. He's basically a WW player or last round of your rookie draft type pick. IMO, he's got potential to be a starter in the NFL at some point and with that, potential for fantasy numbers.

I also like Escobar a lot. I felt he was probably the best pure receiving TE in the draft. He's raw and needs work though.

 
How about Mycheal Rivera TE Oakland

Oakland TE's have put up good numbers the last few years including an average talent like Myers. and he will be in the mix. Receiving type TE with only Ausberry and Gordon to beat as Kasa in not playing right now and is very raw

 
bengalbuck said:
I think the only skill position group that was above average was the TE group. A lot of the guys landed on teams that already have established TEs ahead of them. But I think in the long run a couple of these guys that were taken in the first 3 rounds (Eifert, Ertz, McDonald, Kelce, Escobar and Reed) are going to hit pretty big. i think all of them are guys who were taken with the idea they would be offensive weapons and not to be used primarily as blockers like you see in some TE classes.

Kind of depends on how deep your rosters are though as I think you may have to hold for a few years before seeing any real return. Especially with guys like Escobar and McDonald. I have a couple leagues with 30 man rosters and feel better about grabbing and holding one or two of these guys there than in my leagues that have 22 or 23 man rosters where it is much tougher to be patient with long term, later round rookie investments.
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That first paragraph is bang-on with the reasoning why I'm the highest on the rookie TEs of anyone on staff. Lots of TEs went early, and to teams with a history of using their TEs. In addition, the veteran TE market is very weak right now. I think the highly-drafted TEs make great investments late this year. The best value of the bunch, in my opinion, is probably Reed... but really, I like them all more than the consensus.

Another name that I like late are Knile Davis, who is being unfairly downgraded way more than his draft position would suggest. Regardless of what we think of him, obviously Kansas thought enough of him to spend a second day pick on him, and that Kansas City job is plum. I also like Denard Robinson a lot as a late flier, especially in leagues that reward return yardage.

 
I've heard a lot of good buzz about Ryan Swope's potential. I know he's still dealing with some injury issues, but he's someone to watch during training camp and might qualify as a good late round dynasty sleeper.

 
If by >20 you mean 21 and up, Then Chris Thompson. I think it is very legitimate that he could be the next RB with a Darren Sproles type of impact in ppr leagues.

If by >20 you mean higher than 20 (inside the top 20), Then the guy I think is really going to do more than what people were discussing is Aaron Dobson. I think he will be that guy that comes out of this draft that everybody looks back on and says "All the signs were right there and I got too cute in overthinking it."

But the one guy that I think could absolutely obliterate the expectations is Da'Rick Rogers. This guy is as risky as they come but he is also the one guy in this draft who could EASILY (can't bold or understate that enough to emphasize the point) be looked back on in three years and could be Julio, could be Marshall, could be Dez. This kid ate up the best the SEC could throw at him, on a so-so team with a so-so QB that wasn't exactly trying to make the gameplan run through him. He flattened them all and could be "the one" that people get a ton of value out of.

 
Da'Rick Rodgers was just taken at 2.04 of the rookie draft in my league...before Robert Woods. I'm on board with him being an excellent sleeper if you get him in the 3rd or 4th, but the secret is out at this point and spending a 2nd on him makes me uneasy.

 
Yeah, I don't see how D. Rogers qualifies. He's in the top 20 of all my drafts.

So is Stacy.

 
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Terrance Williams is my top-ranked player outside the top 20 ADP; great college production, good size, nice opportunity, and drafted just before Keenan Allen & Markus Wheaton.

Other guys who I like around then:

WR

Stedman BaileyJosh Boyce

TETravis KelceJordan Reed

RB

Knile DavisDenard RobinsonLatavius Murray

 
flat_earth said:
Da'Rick Rodgers was just taken at 2.04 of the rookie draft in my league...before Robert Woods. I'm on board with him being an excellent sleeper if you get him in the 3rd or 4th, but the secret is out at this point and spending a 2nd on him makes me uneasy.
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jurb26 said:
Yeah, I don't see how D. Rogers qualifies. He's in the top 20 of all my drafts.So is Stacy.
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Damn. Rodgers was on here for me too. I guess not.

I would have to say that all of those Buffalo rookie WR's have to be in the mix though just because they all bring a slightly different skill set and will get to compete for WR2 in Buffalo. So, I guess I will throw Goodwin in as a sleeper.

If Rodgers is getting that much love then I assume Stedman Bailey is on his way up too but for now, I'd have him in there as well. He already knows how to play with Austin and I think WR's knowing how to work off of each other under estimated.

 
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Da'Rick Rogers (not sure if he counts or not)

Tyler Wilson

I also really like Gillislee who will probably start as RB2 behind Miller with some good opportunities to show his skills.

 
I am sure hoping a lot of these predictions are right, I have Tyler Wilson and Zac Stacy on my dynasty squad :)

 
bump... got my draft tonight lets keep the discussion going!

I'll add one here: Marquise Goodwin- hearing chatter of a poor man's welker/amendola and the 4.27 speed is no joke

 
traderallenpoe said:
bump... got my draft tonight lets keep the discussion going! I'll add one here: Marquise Goodwin- hearing chatter of a poor man's welker/amendola and the 4.27 speed is no joke
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Do you have a link ? Thought he hadn't participated in team workouts. Had been curious about him, but hadn't heard any buzz on him at all since draft.
 
jmo87usc said:
Stepfan Taylor
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I like Taylor or Ellington in AZ to get a chance sometime this season to start, and once you start a game anything can happen. They both have upside for low picks.

I like Taylor better because he is built better to be an all around back, but Ellington may get on the field first as COP. Williams hasn't stayed healthy enough to do anything in two seasons and Mendenhall is a good, but not great back, whom I expect to get hurt sometime this season. Mendenhall is only on a one year contract too.

Taylor has great body control, can make people miss and break tackles, follows his blockers well, blocks well (important for a rookie to get on field), and catches well. His only flaw is top end speed, but as long as a back has enough quicks to hit the hole, 40 times are overrated because a back rarely is in a sprint/race with no one trying to tackle them. From the film I saw Taylor ran fast enough with pads on.

 
traderallenpoe said:
bump... got my draft tonight lets keep the discussion going!

I'll add one here: Marquise Goodwin- hearing chatter of a poor man's welker/amendola and the 4.27 speed is no joke
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OK, I'll bite. Who exactly is saying this?

Goodwin never had more than 60 targets in a year whereas Amendola had 145 his last year at TT. Add on the fact Amendola was able to post 8.59 YPT on 145 whereas Goodwin never got above 8 on much fewer targets, I am having a hard time seeing anything in his college production that would indicate that he could be a high volume guy. Maybe I am just not looking at the right things.

 
Andre Ellington RB/ARI: In my opinion has the most raw talent at RB on that staff, he's behind Mendenhall and Williams who have proven to be just as injury prone as Beanie used to be there. I wouldn't be shocked if he's starting mid season.

Chris Thompson RB/WAS: Darren Sproles is lethal with Drew Brees at QB, how lethal would he be with RG3 screwing with LB assignments? Could be a massive home run hitter on passing downs.

Dion Sims TE/MIA: Good talent and he'll see some playing time in his rookie year, if he shows off good skills he'll be the starter next season as Keller's on a 1 year contract.

Matt Scott QB/JAC: Everyone keeps saying Tyler Wilson, while he may be going further than ADP20 in rookie drafts he isn't really a sleeper. If Scott can get over this high ankle sprain and make the team I wouldn't be shocked to see him get a chance part way through the season. Gabbert will have one more shot, Henne already had his shot last year and proved he's still nothing more than a backup. If Gabbert is still awful (obviously he will be) in week 6-7 I could see Scott leap frogging Henne just for Jacksonville to see what they have in him. At the very least the kid can make plays.

IDP Side

DaMontre Moore DE/NYG: He easily had a Round 1 draft pedigree but fell to the third round do to his off field issues and work ethic problems. Could there have literally been a better team for him to land on then the Giants? Tuck, Pierre-Paul, Kiwi will all mentor this kid and he may end up seeing a lot of field time early in the first few weeks so long as he keeps his head screwed on straight. He'll be taking first team snaps throughout all of the mini-camps and training camps because of JPP's recent back surgery and could even end up seeing significant play time early on if JPP can't get back till week 2-3. He has the talent, if he can prove it on the field in preseason and the first few weeks of the season he'll make an immediate impact in replacing Osi. If he can get his head screwed on straight don't be surprised if he ends up being the best DE from this draft class.

Sylvester Williams DT/DEN: Will be an immediate starter and is going undrafted in most of my leagues. I've picked him up in almost all of my auctions post draft as people are scratching and clawing over Floyd. He has a good head on his shoulders, he'll be on a good team and he'll be on the field enough with the electric Broncos offense. If you need to start a DT in your league he's a good safe pickup.

 
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