Who should I take? (1 Viewer)

[PatriotJohn]

I play in a Diamond Mind current league, and own the #'s 6,8, and 9 pick in this year's rookie draft. It's a 28 team league.

Here is my team so far (mainstays):

C: Torealba

1b: Loney / Casey

2b: Miles

3b: Wright

SS: H.Ramirez

OF: M.Cabrera, Eithier, Hermida

SP: Fogg, Redding, Hirsh, Garza, Kim, Petit

RP: Moylan, Turnbow, Street

My pressing need is pitching, although I will probably not be good enough for a wildcard, even with picking up a Matsuzaka in the first round. 2b will be a future issue, as will SP and OF depth. Here are the grade A rookies as I see it (those who will or may go in round 1): This is how I have them ranked:

Hunter Pence

Tim Lincecum

Jacoby Ellsbury*

Yovani Gallardo

Cameron Maybin

Phil Hughes

Joba Chamberlain

Justin Upton

Clay Buchholz

Micah Owings

Ryan Braun

Asdrubal Cabrera#

Ian Kennedy

Mark Reynolds

Joey Votto*

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Homer Bailey

Billy Butler

Alex Gordon*

Joakim Soria

Manny Delcarmen

Hideki Okajima*

J.C. Romero*

As of right now I will probably take 2 pitchers and 1 hitter with my 3 picks. I am hoping that Ellsbury and Gallardo fall to me, and should also see Hughes there for me to take at 9. I'm set at 3b with Wright, so taking Braun or Gordon wont matter to me, even though Braun may go to the OF in 08. The real wild card in this is where Justin Upton will go. I do not have a good handle on his ceiling, but a lot of folks think he is gonna be huge. Another dillema is if Joba vs Hughes if both are available to me. Joba hasn't pitched more than 118 innings in any pro or college year.

So who would you take if the choices were?

Joba vs Hughes?

Upton vs Ellsbury?

Based on those picks, who do you think will be the first 5 taken?

I will reveal the draft after it is complete on the 12th of Jan.

PJ

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Even in a league of that size pitching can be had in waiver wire moves or just on luck alone. I'd go two position players and one pitcher if I were you.

Also I'm guessing Troy Tulowitzki and Pedroia are gone.

Position players:

Upton

Ellsbury

Braun

Pence

Bruce (Not listed)

Maybin (2009 help)

Votto

Butler

Pitchers:

Lincecum

Gallardo

Bailey

Hughes

Dice K

Bucholtz

Andrew Miller (not listed)

Chamberlain

Adam Miller (not listed)

I'd take two of those position players and then a pitcher. Bailey may be underrated a bit but he needed time to settle in and he should be as good or better than Hughes or Bucholtz. Lincecum plays in the right park and he is going to be a K pitcher. He has a ton of upside. But pitchers can be had either via vet draft, via the wire, or in a trade for a good position player. If you took all position players and no pitchers you probably would be able to trade a Votto later for two pretty good pitchers who could help you immediately.

Top 5 in the draft? Upton, Ellsbury, Braun or Pence, Dice K, and probably one of the Yankee pitchers and maybe Lincecum. Fantasy-wise the Yankee pitchers and Bucholtz will be overvalued and hopefully that benefits you. Don't fall for it (yankee and Red Sox prospects are the most talked about because they have the biggest following. It doesn't mean their prospects are always the best). Take the better posiiton players and hope a lot of pitchers go before you pick because the posiiton players will give you a better short-term and likely longer term return. Bruce (not sure if he's eligible for this draft) would be a pick while another guy you could later (I'm guessing there is more than one round) would be Daric Barton. If one of Upton, Braun, Pence, or Ellisbury drops to you at six you should be extremely happy. If you could get two of them then wow.

 

[PatriotJohn]

Even in a league of that size pitching can be had in waiver wire moves or just on luck alone. I'd go two position players and one pitcher if I were you. Also I'm guessing Troy Tulowitzki and Pedroia are gone. Position players:UptonEllsburyBraunPenceBruce (Not listed)Maybin (2009 help)VottoButlerPitchers:LincecumGallardoBaileyHughesDice KBucholtzAndrew Miller (not listed)ChamberlainAdam Miller (not listed)I'd take two of those position players and then a pitcher. Bailey may be underrated a bit but he needed time to settle in and he should be as good or better than Hughes or Bucholtz. Lincecum plays in the right park and he is going to be a K pitcher. He has a ton of upside. But pitchers can be had either via vet draft, via the wire, or in a trade for a good position player. If you took all position players and no pitchers you probably would be able to trade a Votto later for two pretty good pitchers who could help you immediately. Top 5 in the draft? Upton, Ellsbury, Braun or Pence, Dice K, and probably one of the Yankee pitchers and maybe Lincecum. Fantasy-wise the Yankee pitchers and Bucholtz will be overvalued and hopefully that benefits you. Don't fall for it (yankee and Red Sox prospects are the most talked about because they have the biggest following. It doesn't mean their prospects are always the best). Take the better posiiton players and hope a lot of pitchers go before you pick because the posiiton players will give you a better short-term and likely longer term return. Bruce (not sure if he's eligible for this draft) would be a pick while another guy you could later (I'm guessing there is more than one round) would be Daric Barton. If one of Upton, Braun, Pence, or Ellisbury drops to you at six you should be extremely happy. If you could get two of them then wow.

Thanks for taking the time to reply. Taking 2 position players is usually a better proposition only because pitchers are so unpredictable, and one of the young studs can be traded for a pitcher later on. We have a Phase 2 draft where we take 3 players in a 1-round draft from the unprotected rosters (cut to 19-21 players). I can find a serviceable pitcher there, but I will need 40 more starts before the season.Bruce and the Millers did not get cards since they didnt make the majors, and Pedroia and Tulo went last year. I would be tickled pink with a trio of Gallardo, Ellsbury and Upton. I truly expect Pence anc Braun to go in the top 5, along with Dice-K. I take it you are not high on Owings? A great hitter and only24, but not in a great pitchers park. I had 3 picks last year in round 1 (#'s 8,13,26) and ended up with Garza, Eithier and Loney. I will put my Grade B ones up later as I have 2 picks in round 2. Gonna be a bumper crop for me this year!

 

[guru_007]

Initially I was going to say that I like Votto and Butler a lot and you should target them. Both should be every day players and both played a bit at the major league level last year so I don't expect them to be overwhelmed.

But, then I took a look at your pitching staff and threw up all over the place. Even in a 28 team league, your pitching staff needs a lot of help. That is Josh Fogg, Tim Redding and Jason Hirsch, correct?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Micah Owings is just fine but you'll probably be able to get Bailey there and I'd take him. Also Andrew Miller pitched in the majors last year and should be in the Marlins rotation this year. He has a lot of upside plus he'll get you innings (and K's) this year.

 

[PatriotJohn]

Initially I was going to say that I like Votto and Butler a lot and you should target them. Both should be every day players and both played a bit at the major league level last year so I don't expect them to be overwhelmed.But, then I took a look at your pitching staff and threw up all over the place. Even in a 28 team league, your pitching staff needs a lot of help. That is Josh Fogg, Tim Redding and Jason Hirsch, correct?

Yes, you are correct. I like Hirsch....he had average numbers last year before his injury, but aside from Garza the rest of my staff is scrubs. If I can get 1 really good pitcher and a serviceable one, I will be ok. I may get mroe value trading a young hitter for a proven pitcher than taking a chance on a rookie. A lot depends on who is there with my picks.

 

[RedRaiders]

Wow, what is this - a 28 team league? /sharkpool response

 

[jtnt1096]

Where is Josh Hamilton? Does someone already have him?

 

[PatriotJohn]

Yes....28 team league. Hamilton is on the draft list, but I didn't rank him as high.....mainly because of his age and health issues.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Yes....28 team league. Hamilton is on the draft list, but I didn't rank him as high.....mainly because of his age and health issues.

I'd add Hamilton to the list then. Texas is a friendly environment for hitters. Also how many owners returned to that league? 28 seems excessive but a dedicated 24 team dynasty league would be interesting depending on initial draft format.

 

[PatriotJohn]

Yes....28 team league. Hamilton is on the draft list, but I didn't rank him as high.....mainly because of his age and health issues.

I'd add Hamilton to the list then. Texas is a friendly environment for hitters. Also how many owners returned to that league? 28 seems excessive but a dedicated 24 team dynasty league would be interesting depending on initial draft format.

Seasons Past BaseballClick on the SPB-Now link for the league in question. All of our leagues use actual teams -2, so 28 for our league. We do have some turnover, but we have a great core of managers, and a think enough pool so that there are no "All-Star" teams. If I had a pick later in the first round I would be targeting Hamilton, but the guys listed above are what I am looking at.

The #2 overall is available so I may put a package of one of the picks together for it, but if not I am happy with the picks I have.

 

[Balco]

I look at your nucleus and don't see a very solid team, so I would definitely focus on youth if I were you (as I think you said you plan on doing):

For hitters:

I like Upton and Braun. Braun will likely lose 3B eligibility after this year, but he is going to be a monster offensively. Upton is 20, I am assuming this is a keeper, so you can ride his struggles this year. It will pay off big time in the future.

- Outside of the 1st round, see if you can get Alex Gordon on the cheap. I think he is really going to explode this season, he is still very young, and is a top flight hitting prospect. Do not let last years stats fool you. Don't nab him too early, but I think alot of owners will be scared away due to his .244 average in 2007, and the fact his manager says he will bat 7th.

As for pitching:

As far as the rookies I think it goes:

1. Lincecum - Like Dr. Detroit said, he is a K pitcher in a pitchers park. Although his offensive support will be lacking, he should have a very solid defense behind him.

2. Gallardo - I still love this guy, and will be targeting him in my drafts. He had a couple rough outings that hurt his ERA, but like Lincecum, he is a high K pitcher with # 1 upside.

Everyone else on the list (save for Dice K, who I just don't think fits with your long term vision) has a ton of question marks. I am definitely in the minority, but if I had to pick a # 3 it would be Andrew Miller. Moves to a pitchers park, he should do well. Won't show in the W column, but he is going to be a good pitcher.

 

[PatriotJohn]

I look at your nucleus and don't see a very solid team, so I would definitely focus on youth if I were you (as I think you said you plan on doing):For hitters:I like Upton and Braun. Braun will likely lose 3B eligibility after this year, but he is going to be a monster offensively. Upton is 20, I am assuming this is a keeper, so you can ride his struggles this year. It will pay off big time in the future.- Outside of the 1st round, see if you can get Alex Gordon on the cheap. I think he is really going to explode this season, he is still very young, and is a top flight hitting prospect. Do not let last years stats fool you. Don't nab him too early, but I think alot of owners will be scared away due to his .244 average in 2007, and the fact his manager says he will bat 7th.As for pitching:As far as the rookies I think it goes:1. Lincecum - Like Dr. Detroit said, he is a K pitcher in a pitchers park. Although his offensive support will be lacking, he should have a very solid defense behind him.2. Gallardo - I still love this guy, and will be targeting him in my drafts. He had a couple rough outings that hurt his ERA, but like Lincecum, he is a high K pitcher with # 1 upside.Everyone else on the list (save for Dice K, who I just don't think fits with your long term vision) has a ton of question marks. I am definitely in the minority, but if I had to pick a # 3 it would be Andrew Miller. Moves to a pitchers park, he should do well. Won't show in the W column, but he is going to be a good pitcher.

I beg to differ about not having a solid nucleus. Most of it is hitting with Wright, Ramirez, Loney, Hermida, Cabrera, with Street closing. As much as I hate it I may go 2 pitchers just to replenish my weakness. Braun would be no good for me this year because he is only rated at 3b, and I have Wright and cant use both.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I look at your nucleus and don't see a very solid team, so I would definitely focus on youth if I were you (as I think you said you plan on doing):For hitters:I like Upton and Braun. Braun will likely lose 3B eligibility after this year, but he is going to be a monster offensively. Upton is 20, I am assuming this is a keeper, so you can ride his struggles this year. It will pay off big time in the future.- Outside of the 1st round, see if you can get Alex Gordon on the cheap. I think he is really going to explode this season, he is still very young, and is a top flight hitting prospect. Do not let last years stats fool you. Don't nab him too early, but I think alot of owners will be scared away due to his .244 average in 2007, and the fact his manager says he will bat 7th.As for pitching:As far as the rookies I think it goes:1. Lincecum - Like Dr. Detroit said, he is a K pitcher in a pitchers park. Although his offensive support will be lacking, he should have a very solid defense behind him.2. Gallardo - I still love this guy, and will be targeting him in my drafts. He had a couple rough outings that hurt his ERA, but like Lincecum, he is a high K pitcher with # 1 upside.Everyone else on the list (save for Dice K, who I just don't think fits with your long term vision) has a ton of question marks. I am definitely in the minority, but if I had to pick a # 3 it would be Andrew Miller. Moves to a pitchers park, he should do well. Won't show in the W column, but he is going to be a good pitcher.

I beg to differ about not having a solid nucleus. Most of it is hitting with Wright, Ramirez, Loney, Hermida, Cabrera, with Street closing. As much as I hate it I may go 2 pitchers just to replenish my weakness. Braun would be no good for me this year because he is only rated at 3b, and I have Wright and cant use both.

Yeah but can you move Braun to someone drafting behind you? I bet you could and add some nice vets to help you out this year. I'd take him if he was there at six and worry about everything else after.

 

[dparker713]

Cant really comment on the Al guys, as I only really study the NL, but I would focus on position players. Even in a 28 team league, I dont think you're in a position to compete for the playoffs this year. Given the up and down nature of pitching (especially pitching prospects), I'd stick to positional prospects. And Braun and Pence are the real deal and the only sure things that I saw on your list. Those would be 1 and 1A for me. Outside of them, Elsbury is going to be over hyped as a Red Sox player. I'd try to package a deal to make sure you get either Pence or Braun, position be damned.

I'd be most focused on acquiring more talent, even if you have lineup conflicts. Those guys on your bench can then become keys to trades. If Braun starts strong, then you have the option of trading him or the probably better possibility of trading Wright. As much as I love Wright (Mets fan), he may just be worth more as trade bait unless he can make another leap in production. Plus, the move would make you younger.

Since you're drafting young players/prospects, I'd put alot more stock in players that have shown an ability to produce in the bigs, hence why I'd target Braun or Pence. But whatever you do, go for talent and not positional needs.

 

[PatriotJohn]

I doubt Braun will be there at 6 based upon a few draft results from other leagues.

If you wish to chime in, chose 5 players from the following group. These are my grade "B" players who will be most likely available in round 2. I have 2 picks in round 2.

Carlos Gomez lf 21

Daric Barton* 1b 21

Franklin Morales* sp 21

Jair Jurrjens sp 21

Troy Patton* sp 21

Jarrod Saltalamacchia# c 22

Felix Pie* cf 22

Tony Abreu# 3b 22

Ian Stewart* 3b 22

Brandon Wood 3b 22

Wladimir Balentien rf 22

Rick VandenHurk sp 22

Jesse Litsch sp 22

Jo-Jo Reyes* sp 22

Tyler Clippard sp 22

Aaron Laffey* sp 22

John Lannan* sp 22

Travis Buck* rf 23

Miguel Montero* c 23

Kurt Suzuki c 23

Elijah Dukes cf 23

Nate Schierholtz* rf 23

Andy LaRoche 3b 23

Chase Headley# 3b 23

Dallas Braden* sp 23

Garrett Olson* sp 23

Kevin Slowey sp 23

Joe Smith rp 23

Luke Hochevar rp 23

Yunel Escobar ss 24

Steve Pearce rf 24

Seth Smith* rf 24

Andy Sonnanstine sp 24

Ben Francisco lf 25

Delwyn Young# lf 25

Reggie Willits# lf 26

Chris Duncan* lf 26

Josh Hamilton* cf 26

Jared Burton rp 26

Rick Ankiel* rf 27

 

[Knightro]

Josh Hamilton

Carlos Gomez

Daric Barton

Ian Stewart

Franklin Morales

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Jarrod Saltalamacchia# c 22Ian Stewart* 3b 22Brandon Wood 3b 22Travis Buck* rf 23Andy LaRoche 3b 23Chase Headley# 3b 23Josh Hamilton* cf 26

Of the players you have listed these guys would be good targets and I'm not sure Saltalamacchia, Wood, or Stewart are "B" players at all. There are a few others on that list I like also but these guys jumped out at me.

 

[Your Mother]

Jarrod Saltalamacchia# c 22Ian Stewart* 3b 22Brandon Wood 3b 22Travis Buck* rf 23Andy LaRoche 3b 23Chase Headley# 3b 23Josh Hamilton* cf 26

Of the players you have listed these guys would be good targets and I'm not sure Saltalamacchia, Wood, or Stewart are "B" players at all. There are a few others on that list I like also but these guys jumped out at me.

Buck hit 288/377/474 last year. Pretty solid.

 

[PatriotJohn]

Here are the results of the first two rounds of the draft. My team is the Dayton Dynamo. Looking for pitching first I had to jump on Lincecum, but the real surprise comes in the second round

ROUND 1

1 Worcester Grays Justin Upton

2 Jersey Jukes Yovanni Gallardo

3 Bay Area Barking Seals Ryan Braun

4 Frankfort Frogs Alex Gordon

5 Waldo Peppers Daisuke Matsuzaka

6 Dayton Dynamo Tim Lincecum

7 Virginia Terriers Hunter Pence

8 Dayton Dynamo Jacoby Ellsbury

9 Dayton Dynamo Phillip Hughes

10 Midnight Rambler Micah Owings

11 Kansas City T-Bones Akinori Iwamura

12 Kentucky Batkats Yunel Escobar

13 Midnight Rambler Jesse Litsch

14 Pacific Powerhouses Travis Buck

15 Virginia Terriers Clay Buchholz

16 Richmond Rebels Matt Chico

17 Dodge City Marshalls Jarrod Saltalamacchia

18 Pocono Pumas Mark Reynolds

19 South Fork Survivors Josh Hamilton

20 Scio Farmers Homer Bailey

21 Houston Oil Barons Joba Chamberlain

22 Jersey Jukes Ian Kennedy

23 Colgate Creek Cannons Kyle Kendrick

24 Jersey Jukes Joey Votto

25 Lafayette River Pilots Billy Butler

26 Troy Haymakers Rick Ankiel

27 Bowling Green Buskers Hideki Okajima

28 Pocono Pumas Chris Duncan

ROUND 2

1 Rip City Highlanders Ronnie Belliard

2 Kansas City T-Bones Reggie Willits

3 Carolina Sandlappers Asdrubal Cabrera

4 Troy Haymakers Ian Stewart

5 Dayton Dynamo Cameron Maybin

6 Jersey Jukes Franklin Morales

7 Needham Rockets Luke Hochevar

8 Waldo Peppers John Danks

9 Midnight Rambler Joakim Soria

10 Virginia Terriers Daric Barton

11 Dayton Dynamo Manny Delcarmen

12 Carolina Sandlappers Miguel Montero

13 Midnight Rambler Kevin Slowey

14 Kansas City T-Bones Kurt Suzuki

15 Worcester Grays Brandon Morrow

16 Virginia Terriers Andy Laroche

17 Pacific Powerhouses Dallas Braden

18 Midnight Rambler JR Towels

19 Richmond Rebels Tony Abreu

20 Dodge City Marshalls Brandon Wood

21 Lafayette River Pilots Brendan Ryan

22 Niskayuna Warriors Carlos Gomez

23 Scio Farmers Felix Pie

24 Houston Oil Barons Chase Headley

25 Michigan Tigers Andy Sonnanstine

26 Frankfort Frogs Danny Richar

27 Frankfort Frogs Rick VandenHurk

28 Bowling Green Buskers Aaron Laffey

Just wanted to let you know whats up.

 

[Bobcat10]

Ronnie Belliard?

 

[PatriotJohn]

Ronnie Belliard?

I think some managers were drafting based strictly on need rather than future. All the better for me I say!

 

[Bobcat10]

Ronnie Belliard?

I think some managers were drafting based strictly on need rather than future. All the better for me I say!

That guy must be real desperate then.