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Who to draft? (1 Viewer)

Chimp Magnet

Footballguy
I know this may be a bit premature but I need to start wrapping my head around who to draft this year. My league is a 10 team, dynasty, PPR, super flex league.

1.5 years ago I traded Dameon Pierce for the pick that wound up being the 1.01 in the 2024 draft. I went ahead and earned the 1.05 spot via injuries to Chubb, Richardson, Jefferson, and Achane.

My QB roster includes Anthony Richardson, Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray, and Russell Wilson. My WR roster includes Justin Jefferson, Jaylen Waddle, DK Metcalf, Jameson Williams, and Khalil Shakir.

Do I take Caleb at 1.01 and best WR available at 1.05 or MH2 at 1.01 and hope that one of the QBs is there at 1.05 but be okay if Nabers is there and just double up on excellent WRs?

Yes I know it's early. Just trying to create some dialogue and get my head around having to pick 1 of 2 generational talents.
 
Don't worry about who to take and spend your time evaluating the prospects and their chances to succeed and be a FF starter for the next few years. Put the research and effort into creating a combined draft board based on your evaluations and process for the players. Then just take the guy at the top of your list when it's your turn to pick.

I know this seems simplistic but too many people get caught up on names, positions, roster strength/weakness and try and force picks. Just do your best to figure out the best players that will contribute for FF and then take them.

Its too early to put names to picks. It's time to start evaluating the players.
 
Don't worry about who to take and spend your time evaluating the prospects and their chances to succeed and be a FF starter for the next few years. Put the research and effort into creating a combined draft board based on your evaluations and process for the players. Then just take the guy at the top of your list when it's your turn to pick.

I know this seems simplistic but too many people get caught up on names, positions, roster strength/weakness and try and force picks. Just do your best to figure out the best players that will contribute for FF and then take them.

Its too early to put names to picks. It's time to start evaluating the players.
That was the conclusion I’d come to. I just couldn’t figure out how to delete a thread.
 
Don't worry about who to take and spend your time evaluating the prospects and their chances to succeed and be a FF starter for the next few years. Put the research and effort into creating a combined draft board based on your evaluations and process for the players. Then just take the guy at the top of your list when it's your turn to pick.

I know this seems simplistic but too many people get caught up on names, positions, roster strength/weakness and try and force picks. Just do your best to figure out the best players that will contribute for FF and then take them.

Its too early to put names to picks. It's time to start evaluating the players.
That was the conclusion I’d come to. I just couldn’t figure out how to delete a thread.
I don't think you need to delete the thread, this is a good discussion and something to think about. Your 1.05 is take the BPA weighing in that it is Super Flex and QBs if they hit have much greater value.

Now the question is who to take at 1.01 and I don't think it is an easy answer. Both Caleb and MHJ could turn out great and be awesome for fantasy. Wait until the scouting and NFL draft process play out and see who lands where. I think for a QB to be successful they need to land in a system with a coach that understands how to maximize their potential. Same thing for WRs but maybe less so unless your name is Drake London and the coach is Arthur Smith. Lots of time to decide 1.01.... BUT

What is going to help your decision making process is looking at it this way - how many starting spots do you have in your 10-man league? With only 10-man you want studs. You NEED studs. Is it start 9 or 10 or is more depth needed if you start say 11 or 12. Even if it is start 11, depth is important but hitting on those studs is going to carry your team.

How many QBs are generally kept on a roster? Are QBs horded or can you pick up them off waivers if someone gets hurt? What is the QB market like in your league? Most leagues QBs will be worth more in a trade which is why going QB with 1.01 makes the most sense. You can always flip a QB later for a first round pick + something. The cheapest Caleb will be right now is a single first round pick (either 1.01 or 1.02).

The other option is if you like both Caleb and MHJ - see about trading back to 1.02 and what they will give you if they really want one of those guys - say they really need a QB.
 
What is going to help your decision making process is looking at it this way - how many starting spots do you have in your 10-man league? With only 10-man you want studs. You NEED studs. Is it start 9 or 10 or is more depth needed if you start say 11 or 12. Even if it is start 11, depth is important but hitting on those studs is going to carry your team.
This is true regardless of league size. The rookie draft is a crap shoot. It always is. Recency bias has skewed things a bit where everyone is starting to assume every top pick is going to put up record breaking stats (Stroud, JJ, Chase to name a few) however these guys are exceptions. Will MJH or Caleb continue that? Maybe, maybe not. Those are exceptions more than standards.

How many times are the late first or 2nd or 3rd round FF rookie picks actually the guys that hit? More often than you think. Look at Laporta and JJ. They weren't top picks. Putting in the effort in the evaluation process to get something you are comfortable with and believe is the key. The goal is to hit on FF starters for multiple years. You can't have too many of those. That's why drafting for position of need is such a detriment. Unless you think that guy is the top guy it's better to take BPA.

SF causes a shift because typically those leagues hoard QB's so that raises the relative value of the position somewhat trumping the actual chances those players hit. Let's face it, NFL can't get the QB choice right so how are a bunch of FF GM's going to get it right. It's more luck than skill but because it's the only way to get a QB at a reasonable price sometimes you just have to do it. But it doesn't take away the value of putting together the combined draft board. It just raises QB's on that board because of the QB cost basis.

I do agree if you have a couple guys at the top of your draft board that you have essentially equal it is a good idea to shop 1.01 to maximize that asset. However, if you have one guy head and shoulders above all else, might as well take him. If you do decide to sell the 1.01 wait until the week before your draft. It will maximize the return as other owners get the bug for the shiny new toy.
 
Would love to hear more strategies on balancing immediate impact vs. long-term success in such leagues.
For me, I look at 2 yr windows so I am mostly looking at immediate impact. Too many factors change to look any further down the road. For Rookie drafts my only goal is to draft a starting caliber FF player. Position doesn't matter. My roster make up doesn't matter. It's foolish to take a lesser player because of need. Reason being, the rookie draft is an absolute crap shoot. It's hard enough to find starting caliber players so I don't want to hinder that further by taking a lesser player because I need that position.

I can deal from strength but only if the player hits. Because of that, finding starting FF players is my only goal in the rookie draft.
 

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