Bob Magaw
Footballguy
due to the short week i will post here informally & add to over next few days...
the list is meant to be representative & suggestive, not necessarily comprehensive & exhaustive... feel free to add your own thoughts (in fact wanting input partly informed & prompted this thread)...
thanx to everybody for reading this season & for all the comments & suggestions... i received more feedback this year (ETTGs 5th) than in any previous season...
i've said it before, but the SP & IDP boards are a like a 1,000 eyed monster that sees everything... i really appreciate how as a community we are able to instill a kind of aggregated and collaborative intelligence, where the whole is truly more intelligent & wise than any individual could be... a high level debate could already be in place, that could spark off a thoughtful question in another incoming poster who has brought a new perspective, which could lead to fertile new directions for thought previously unexplored... when done in the right way, this just makes everybody smarter, and can take individuals to levels it would be hard to get to separately... feeding that enhanced individual football IQ growth writ large back into the collective, makes the whole progressively smarter... & so on...
i haven't posted here as much lately (one reason for THIS post, but not the only one)... partly that is due to the fact that it has grown exponentially since i began here (in 2004 i think?)... it is great to see that it has grown to the point where it is self-sustaining, with so many learned & helpful contibutors willing & able to share their knowledge... i can remember when i was new, staffer dave baker taught me much & steeped me in some very useful fundamentals which i continue to employ to this day... with a solid foundation, i was able to come up with some stuff on my own, & i personally enjoy giving back some of what i got... many others here seem to have a similar attitude...
one thing i personally find fascinating is how the IDP offshoot has grown... FF is a coherent body of knowledge with many interconnected principles... IDP is a separate body or domain of knowledge unto itself... sometimes things learned on offense can be generalized (consistent scoring is good, why MLB better than FS, in general), at other times not... (great cover CBs like asomugha make bad IDPs, as they are avoided... this is a twisted, upside down alice in wonderland kind of verity that would never apply on offense... there, good is always good & bad always bad!
)...
the scouting side (which i am more inclined to) will always have a degree of art, if only because some of the most important things about a player are their hearts & minds, which we don't currently have good tests for extracting this type of info, & have to rely on anecdotal observations & reports...
but we also have some gifted historical/statistical number crunchers here (people like dr. drinen, his protege chase & jene & aaron on the IDP side come immediately to mind) who are doing great work at making FF more precise, rigorous & exacting, more like a science...
i agree that the IDP board sets a great tone... another reason i haven't been as active here recently is knowing it is in such great hands with the likes of jene, aaron & anthony... ever since i can remember, & they & other current regulars have continued this legacy from the earlier example set... responding to the community in a genuine spirit of of helpfulness... it helps newcomers to learn better & faster, & they are soon in a position to in turn help others... this willingness to put the process first & check egos at the door is why i think this is the best board at FBG, and alway will be as long as this spirit continues...
on to the informal week 17 column... happy holidays to the board...
_______________________________________________________________
2008 Season Wrap
Who went up and who went down in 2008?
Arizona
Up - Karlos Dansby has enjoyed a breakout season, and stands to make a lot of money soon.
Down - Eric Green has already lost his job to good looking rookie DRC and should be shown the door in the offseason.
Atlanta
Up - While it is hard to call an aging talent like John Abraham ascendant, he is indisputably in the midst of a career renaissance and playing the best ball of his career.
Down - Michael Boley was the Falcons most promising defensive player as recently as last season, but his fortunes have fallen to virtually the same degree and proportion as the franchise's as a whole have risen. He isn't even a full time starter any longer and is being deployed in a situational role (splitting time with ex-Bill SS Coy Wire), and it wouldn't be a surprise if he is allowed to move on in free agency. His fall from grace has been remarkable for its rapididty.
Baltimore
Up - Haloti Ngata is an emerging force as a young interior DL, and looks like a future Pro Bowler. Shocking feet, quickness and athleticism for a big man, with the movement skills of a much smaller human. We could have just as easily made the case for a few other Ravens defenders to be plugged in here, with Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed all making the Pro Bowl.
Down -
Buffalo
Up - Marcus Stroud elevated the defense and entire team early, though he hasn't been as conspicuous with the Bills incinerating upon re-entry and crashing back to Earth after a now distant memory red-hot start.
Down - Aaron Schobel was hurt but wasn't setting the league on fire even before.
Carolina
Up - Jon Beason and Julius Peppers made the Pro Bowl and would be logical choices here. Less obvious but equally tenable inclusions here would be Chris Gamble and Thomas Davis, who also enjoyed career seasons. Charles Johnson is also a name to follow in the future.
Down - The athletically gifted and multi-talented Richard Marshall disappointingly failed to crack the starting lineup once again, only this season he uncharacteristically failed to be productive within the constaints of his typically restricted nickle CB role.
Chicago
Up - Lance Briggs has of course had a huge season and bounced back in a big way from a disappointing 2007 campaign.
Down - Brian Urlacher, whether due to an inferred deteriorating back condition or the mundane, pedestrian body blows and ravages of Father Time, didn't look as explosive or come close to making as big an impact in 2007.
Cincinnati
Up - Straining for positives in such a brutal season is tantamount to the onerous task of trying to highlight the biggest chick magnet in a Dungeons and Dragons convention. Practically by default, Dhani Jones and Leon Hall have had the best numbers for IDP purposes.
Down - Prized rookie Keith Rivers was playing about as well as could be expected given the fact that he was saddled with an appalling lack of surrounding talent, but his injury and landing on IR was a setback and disappointment.
Cleveland
Up - Shaun Rogers has been a revelation for the Browns, and one of the few positives in a nightmarish season for the club. D'Qwell Jackson enjoyed a breakout season and appears to have a bright future.
Down - Kamerion Wimbley hasn't developed as expected, and is approaching bustdom with a meager and paltry 4 sacks in a disappointing third season.
Dallas
Up - DeMarcus Ware is a legit Defensive Player of the Year candidate.
Down - Roy Williams (the SS) had become an IDP afterthought even before going on IR. His best hope is that he lands with another team that can put his LB-like tackling skills to better use while scheming around his increasingly all too apparent coverage deficiencies.
Denver
Up - Nate Webster was greatly outproducing his IDP expectations before getting hurt, and looked like one of the few players on the "D" that was more part of the solution than the problem.
Down - The proverbial "cast of thousands". The biggest problems holding back the defense continues to be a lack of talent and playmakers on the DL and in the deep secondary.
Detroit
Up - The number of losses, which barring unforseen circumstances, is expected to "rise" to a league record 16 losses during a 2008 season that has conjured up descriptions such as abominable and abysmal.
Down - After the stunning reports that the Lions "interim" front office and coaching staff may be retained in 2009 by ownership, the Detroit fanbase expectations for next season must be as beaten down as... stock in Ford Motor Company (not to suggest there are any corporate mismanagement parallels).
Green Bay
Up - Charles Woodson and Nick Collins are the no-brainer picks here, with both making the Pro Bowl (a combined 11 INTs and 5 TDs), though they haven't played as well in the past month. Woodson may have more of an excuse as he was shifted in-season to an unaccustomed safety spot. A.J. Hawk has flashed moments of brilliance, but partly due to multiple injuries, he has been inconsistent and had an up and down season.
Down - The loss of Cullen Jenkins almost immediately and Nick Barnett relatively early were devastating losses to the defense and not so hidden factors in the Packers mid-season collapse and the withering away of once promising playoff aspirations. It could also be counted as a disappointment that Aaron Rouse was unable to lock down a job when Atari Bigby was hurt, to the point where the defensive coaching staff found it necessary to disrupt already shaky defensive continuity and stability by shunting Woodson to the deep secondary (after playing at a Pro Bowl level at CB).
Houston
Up - Mario Williams played up to the large expectations that come from being a former #1 overall pick, making the first of what should be many Pro Bowls. With his devastating combo of size, athleticism and talent, he has a chance to be a historically good DL, barring injury. He seems to possess the requisite work ethic and desire for greatness to max out his formidable, awesome array of skills, which is bad news for opposing AFC South offenses and the rest of the NFL. The rare ability to be as good as he wants to. Dunta Robinson gets honorable mention. His on field accomplishments didn't compare to the prodigy Williams, but it took a near miraculous recovery to even be on the field after a catastrophic knee injury. As Robinson quickly rounded into playing shape and form, he began to play at a high level (without need of a... for a guy returning from from a devastating knee injury qualifier).
Down - DeMeco Ryans fell way off the blistering pace he set in his first two seasons in the league, but this could in large part be chalked up and attributed to his playing through injury for a good chunk of the season. This could become more of a pronounced trend if he is surrounded by a more talented and better defensive supporting cast. A harsher indictment could be levelled at Amobi Okoye, who has showed very little since about the first month or two of his rookie season. The Manchild is just a few years removed from being a teenager, and could blossom as he physically matures and becomes more technically sound, but most IDP owners have lost patience.
Indianapolis
Up - Robert Mathis is enjoying maybe his best season (and that is saying a lot). The CB tandem of Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden was looking like an ascendant duo before being beset by injuries. They have big upside (both individually and together).
Down - Bob Sanders could be an all time great based purely on talent and heart, but his checkered medical record and the prodigious number of missed games on his resume takes some of the luster off and could tarnish his NFL legacy.
Jacksonville
Up - Daryl Smith is already on IR (typical in a lost season), but he is now safely ensconced at MLB pointing towards 2009 and flashed signs that he might be more productive with the opportunity than he has been in the past.
Down - Mike Peterson has lost a half step but can still play, but this became a moot point after landing in Del Rio's dog house. The situation deteriorated to the point where he wasn't even allowed to suit up at one point. He is filling in on an emergency basis with Smith done for the year, but as far as his long term Jacksonville career is concerned, he is a "dead man walking" tenure-wise.
Kansas City
Up - Their draft position in the 2009 draft, which could be #2/#3 based on a titanic battle for worst record after the Lions (who paradoxically refused to be beat at losing), with the toothless (hornless?) Rams. Brandon Flowers and less heralded fellow CB Brandon Carr were among the best rookie DBs and should have a bright future despite the pall on the season given the defense and team as a whole's overall futility.
Down - Lots to choose from here. Expectations should always be modest and tempered when it comes to rookie DL, yet more was expected from top 5 pick Glenn Dorsey. Demorrio Williams became marginalized early when Derrick Johnson was unexpectedly shifted to WLB (not that it was a bad moving, just the timing was a surprise, in the third year of his career... he has been moved since to MLB, though that is in part due to ineffectiveness of existing talent... it is unclear if this is a permanent move... OTOH, i don't think we know conclusively it ISN'T)...
Miami
Up - what a difference a year can make... last year Joey Porter was thought to be on his last legs and the acquisition was ridiculed... in 2008 he has had a Defensive Player of the Year type season...
Down - Channing Crowder's future is murky... he is a gifted athlete, so it makes you wonder if it is an intanglible flaw... Jason Allen was a trendous talent at Tennessee before a potential career-ending hip injury... By all accounts he made a complete phyical recovery, but he has been unable to translate his two-way (run support & pass coverage) playmaking skills flashed in college to the next level... it is looking doubtful he ever will, at least in Miami...
Minnesota
Up - A few players could go here... Kevin Williams had maybe his best year ever (and he was a previous Pro Bowler)... Antoine Winfield had a great comeback from an injury-marred previous season... E.J. Henderson pick right up where he left off after a breakout 2007... but Chad Greenway was the most surprising and impressive breakout, coming somewhat out of nowhere... he flashed signes of being good in the past (missed first season with knee injury & may have been regaining his range of mation and confidence in the knee lasy season), but played at times this year like one of the best up 'n coming young LBs in the league...
Down - Tyrell Johnson was just a rookie, & not necessarily counted on with darren sharper & free agent Madieu Williams... but when Williams went down and he was pressed into action, he played tentatively...
New England
Up - Jerrod Mayo showed why Bill Belichick the talent evaluator allowed Bill Belichick the roster architect to disregard his heuristic of generally avoiding young LBs (his system is complex and by the time they learn it they could be moving on... why train them for somebody else on his own dime & time?)... despite the scheme complexity, he was able to not only carve out a niche from which to contribute, but quickly emerge as probably the pats best defender... looks like he could be a future Pro Bowler (merited consideration as a rookie and a lock for Rookie DPOY)... makes plays all over the field, great instincts, takes good angles to the ball, sheds tackles, flashes an innate knack in coverage and playmaking skills...
Down - Rodney Harrison has been getting hurt with greater frequency in the twilight of his career, and & it wouldn't be a surprise if he has played his last down for the Pats...
New Orleans
Up - Jonathan Vilma bounced back from a knee injury and looked more like the 2005 MLB that led the NFL in tackles and all IDPs in scoring, than the 2006-2007 iteration that was miscast as a 3-4 ILB... the Saints secondary has been an Achilles heel pre-dating even when Jim Haslett was the HC, but the rookie CB Porter was playing at a high level for a rookie and looks like a definite keeper...
Down - Will Smith is supposed to be in the 2nd tier of better young DEs in the league, but he had a very non-descript & uneventful season. Far more was expected after signing a contract extension...
New York (Giants)
Up - Justin Tuck went from being great to maybe the top DE in the league... and he did it without the help of the retired Michael Strahan or IRed Osi Umenyiura.
Down - Matthias Kiwanuka flashes the potential to be great at times, but for some reason hasn't always been capable of sustaining it in a consistent manner... its unclear if it is a motor issue, or one of technical development... he has been shuttled back and forth from DL to LB and back again, which can't have helped in the technique department...
New York (Jets)
Up - Darrelle Revis got a we deserved hawaii invite and looks like he will be a fixture i the future... Though not of great IDP import, in terms of his actual impact and on those around him, Kris Jenkins has been a revelation in the middle.
Down - David Harris looked like he could put up Patrick Willis numbers based on about half a season's worth of work his rookie season in 2007. He came no where close before getting hurt and missing substantial time with a groin injury. Since returning (and improbably while being listed questionable past few weeks), he has redeemed himself and looked much more like the 2007 version. Kerry Rhodes isn't being used the same way he was in 2007, and his stats have suffered accordingly... he is being used in more of a center fielder capacity, and not able to attack the line of scrimmage as much... he also seems to be deployed in more of a structured and disciplined manner, and not allowed to range around and make plays like before...
Oakland
Up - Nnamdi Asomugha is as bad an IDP as he is great an actual cover CB, but he gets props here for a Pro Bowl season... Kirk Morrison had his best season but labors in anomynity and is overshadowed by a dysfunctional front office that is one of the league's laughing stocks...
Down - DeAngelo Hall was an ill-advised free agent signing (as was Javon Walker on offense), and is no longer with the team... Derrick Burgess and Thomas Howard fell off in 2008... the biggest downer could be safety Michael Huff losing his starting job, though the point could be made that not much was expected from him in the first place given his disappointing and underwhelming first few seasons in the league...
Philadelphia
Up - Trent Cole was one of the most productive IDPs... Quentin Mikell exceeded expectations at SS... Stewart Bradley went from being a relatively unknown commodity to looking like he could have top 15-20 upside... Akeem Jordan (sounds like a dream hoops player) has sent Omar Gaither to the bench...
Down - Omar Gaither (see above)...
Pittsburgh
Up - Few to choose from, with Harrison having a DPOY and even league MVP type of season, Troy Polamalu rebounding from a sub-par 2007 season with a vengeance and making the Pro Bowl, James Farrior looked rejuvenated and was also voted in... LaMarr Woodley gets honorable mention for a breakout, borderline Pro Bowl caliber season...
Down - Casey Hampton's season was clouded by conditioning issues... Still, they couldn't have had too many players with down years given their dominant team defense over the course of the season...
San Diego
Up - Eric Weddle took a big step up in his first year as a starting safety... He is very active in run support and has been athletic and big a playmaker as he was advertised coming out of college playing everything but the halftime band instruments...
Down - Matt Wilhelm failed to build on his 2007 season... Antonio Cromartie made some big plays but gave up too many and appeared to regress from his brilliant previous campaign...
San Francisco
Up - Justin Smith was a solid player but never lived up to his former 4th pick overall status. He had by far the best season of his career, which raises the question of whether his previous inability to take his game to the next level had more to do with his supporting cast with the bengals, or, more likely, how he was schemed?
Down - Nate Clements was one of the top IDPs last season and came nowhere close to that level of production in 2008... for a CB that is one of the highest paid defensive players in league history, he wasn't a big difference maker and he failed to generate a number of big plays commensurate with his pay grade...
Seattle
Up - Maybe nobody in a horrific sendoff season for HC Mike Holmgren... Julian Peterson was one of the few players on the stop unit that didn't regress relative to last season.
Down - Pro Bowlers Patrick Kerney and Lofa Tatupu had down seasons that were injury related (and thereby ending Tatupu's incredibly consistent string of productive IDP seasons)... the secondary had a precipitous drop compared to last season... Marcus Trufant was one of the top DBs in IDP leagues in 2007 but fell off a cliff... the safety tandem of Deon Grant and Brian Russell were an integral part of the Seahawks success last season, and their decline played a corresponding negative role this year...
St. Louis
Up - Incoming GM Bill Devaney... If the Rams were a building, they would be condemned, but since they are an NFL franchise, the edifice remains standing, despite chronic, systemic front office and organizational insults that has allowed the internal structure to decay and rot down to the foundation. Devaney will be allowed to rebuild from the ground up. If the Rams are in fact sold to an interest outside St. Louis, even the ground they build on may be new (unless of course they end up back in Los Angeles, which would be old ground).
Down - Outgoing President John Shaw and GM Jay Zygmunt... I once asked a termite inspector how he knew when a building had termites? When you casually rest your hand on a wall and nonchalantly lean and put weight on it, and your whole body falls through the crumbling structure like a scene from a cartoon... you have termites.
Tampa Bay
Up -
Down -
Tennessee
Up -
Down -
Washington
Up -
Down -
the list is meant to be representative & suggestive, not necessarily comprehensive & exhaustive... feel free to add your own thoughts (in fact wanting input partly informed & prompted this thread)...
thanx to everybody for reading this season & for all the comments & suggestions... i received more feedback this year (ETTGs 5th) than in any previous season...
i've said it before, but the SP & IDP boards are a like a 1,000 eyed monster that sees everything... i really appreciate how as a community we are able to instill a kind of aggregated and collaborative intelligence, where the whole is truly more intelligent & wise than any individual could be... a high level debate could already be in place, that could spark off a thoughtful question in another incoming poster who has brought a new perspective, which could lead to fertile new directions for thought previously unexplored... when done in the right way, this just makes everybody smarter, and can take individuals to levels it would be hard to get to separately... feeding that enhanced individual football IQ growth writ large back into the collective, makes the whole progressively smarter... & so on...
i haven't posted here as much lately (one reason for THIS post, but not the only one)... partly that is due to the fact that it has grown exponentially since i began here (in 2004 i think?)... it is great to see that it has grown to the point where it is self-sustaining, with so many learned & helpful contibutors willing & able to share their knowledge... i can remember when i was new, staffer dave baker taught me much & steeped me in some very useful fundamentals which i continue to employ to this day... with a solid foundation, i was able to come up with some stuff on my own, & i personally enjoy giving back some of what i got... many others here seem to have a similar attitude...
one thing i personally find fascinating is how the IDP offshoot has grown... FF is a coherent body of knowledge with many interconnected principles... IDP is a separate body or domain of knowledge unto itself... sometimes things learned on offense can be generalized (consistent scoring is good, why MLB better than FS, in general), at other times not... (great cover CBs like asomugha make bad IDPs, as they are avoided... this is a twisted, upside down alice in wonderland kind of verity that would never apply on offense... there, good is always good & bad always bad!
)...the scouting side (which i am more inclined to) will always have a degree of art, if only because some of the most important things about a player are their hearts & minds, which we don't currently have good tests for extracting this type of info, & have to rely on anecdotal observations & reports...
but we also have some gifted historical/statistical number crunchers here (people like dr. drinen, his protege chase & jene & aaron on the IDP side come immediately to mind) who are doing great work at making FF more precise, rigorous & exacting, more like a science...
i agree that the IDP board sets a great tone... another reason i haven't been as active here recently is knowing it is in such great hands with the likes of jene, aaron & anthony... ever since i can remember, & they & other current regulars have continued this legacy from the earlier example set... responding to the community in a genuine spirit of of helpfulness... it helps newcomers to learn better & faster, & they are soon in a position to in turn help others... this willingness to put the process first & check egos at the door is why i think this is the best board at FBG, and alway will be as long as this spirit continues...
on to the informal week 17 column... happy holidays to the board...
_______________________________________________________________
2008 Season Wrap
Who went up and who went down in 2008?
Arizona
Up - Karlos Dansby has enjoyed a breakout season, and stands to make a lot of money soon.
Down - Eric Green has already lost his job to good looking rookie DRC and should be shown the door in the offseason.
Atlanta
Up - While it is hard to call an aging talent like John Abraham ascendant, he is indisputably in the midst of a career renaissance and playing the best ball of his career.
Down - Michael Boley was the Falcons most promising defensive player as recently as last season, but his fortunes have fallen to virtually the same degree and proportion as the franchise's as a whole have risen. He isn't even a full time starter any longer and is being deployed in a situational role (splitting time with ex-Bill SS Coy Wire), and it wouldn't be a surprise if he is allowed to move on in free agency. His fall from grace has been remarkable for its rapididty.
Baltimore
Up - Haloti Ngata is an emerging force as a young interior DL, and looks like a future Pro Bowler. Shocking feet, quickness and athleticism for a big man, with the movement skills of a much smaller human. We could have just as easily made the case for a few other Ravens defenders to be plugged in here, with Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed all making the Pro Bowl.
Down -
Buffalo
Up - Marcus Stroud elevated the defense and entire team early, though he hasn't been as conspicuous with the Bills incinerating upon re-entry and crashing back to Earth after a now distant memory red-hot start.
Down - Aaron Schobel was hurt but wasn't setting the league on fire even before.
Carolina
Up - Jon Beason and Julius Peppers made the Pro Bowl and would be logical choices here. Less obvious but equally tenable inclusions here would be Chris Gamble and Thomas Davis, who also enjoyed career seasons. Charles Johnson is also a name to follow in the future.
Down - The athletically gifted and multi-talented Richard Marshall disappointingly failed to crack the starting lineup once again, only this season he uncharacteristically failed to be productive within the constaints of his typically restricted nickle CB role.
Chicago
Up - Lance Briggs has of course had a huge season and bounced back in a big way from a disappointing 2007 campaign.
Down - Brian Urlacher, whether due to an inferred deteriorating back condition or the mundane, pedestrian body blows and ravages of Father Time, didn't look as explosive or come close to making as big an impact in 2007.
Cincinnati
Up - Straining for positives in such a brutal season is tantamount to the onerous task of trying to highlight the biggest chick magnet in a Dungeons and Dragons convention. Practically by default, Dhani Jones and Leon Hall have had the best numbers for IDP purposes.
Down - Prized rookie Keith Rivers was playing about as well as could be expected given the fact that he was saddled with an appalling lack of surrounding talent, but his injury and landing on IR was a setback and disappointment.
Cleveland
Up - Shaun Rogers has been a revelation for the Browns, and one of the few positives in a nightmarish season for the club. D'Qwell Jackson enjoyed a breakout season and appears to have a bright future.
Down - Kamerion Wimbley hasn't developed as expected, and is approaching bustdom with a meager and paltry 4 sacks in a disappointing third season.
Dallas
Up - DeMarcus Ware is a legit Defensive Player of the Year candidate.
Down - Roy Williams (the SS) had become an IDP afterthought even before going on IR. His best hope is that he lands with another team that can put his LB-like tackling skills to better use while scheming around his increasingly all too apparent coverage deficiencies.
Denver
Up - Nate Webster was greatly outproducing his IDP expectations before getting hurt, and looked like one of the few players on the "D" that was more part of the solution than the problem.
Down - The proverbial "cast of thousands". The biggest problems holding back the defense continues to be a lack of talent and playmakers on the DL and in the deep secondary.
Detroit
Up - The number of losses, which barring unforseen circumstances, is expected to "rise" to a league record 16 losses during a 2008 season that has conjured up descriptions such as abominable and abysmal.
Down - After the stunning reports that the Lions "interim" front office and coaching staff may be retained in 2009 by ownership, the Detroit fanbase expectations for next season must be as beaten down as... stock in Ford Motor Company (not to suggest there are any corporate mismanagement parallels).
Green Bay
Up - Charles Woodson and Nick Collins are the no-brainer picks here, with both making the Pro Bowl (a combined 11 INTs and 5 TDs), though they haven't played as well in the past month. Woodson may have more of an excuse as he was shifted in-season to an unaccustomed safety spot. A.J. Hawk has flashed moments of brilliance, but partly due to multiple injuries, he has been inconsistent and had an up and down season.
Down - The loss of Cullen Jenkins almost immediately and Nick Barnett relatively early were devastating losses to the defense and not so hidden factors in the Packers mid-season collapse and the withering away of once promising playoff aspirations. It could also be counted as a disappointment that Aaron Rouse was unable to lock down a job when Atari Bigby was hurt, to the point where the defensive coaching staff found it necessary to disrupt already shaky defensive continuity and stability by shunting Woodson to the deep secondary (after playing at a Pro Bowl level at CB).
Houston
Up - Mario Williams played up to the large expectations that come from being a former #1 overall pick, making the first of what should be many Pro Bowls. With his devastating combo of size, athleticism and talent, he has a chance to be a historically good DL, barring injury. He seems to possess the requisite work ethic and desire for greatness to max out his formidable, awesome array of skills, which is bad news for opposing AFC South offenses and the rest of the NFL. The rare ability to be as good as he wants to. Dunta Robinson gets honorable mention. His on field accomplishments didn't compare to the prodigy Williams, but it took a near miraculous recovery to even be on the field after a catastrophic knee injury. As Robinson quickly rounded into playing shape and form, he began to play at a high level (without need of a... for a guy returning from from a devastating knee injury qualifier).
Down - DeMeco Ryans fell way off the blistering pace he set in his first two seasons in the league, but this could in large part be chalked up and attributed to his playing through injury for a good chunk of the season. This could become more of a pronounced trend if he is surrounded by a more talented and better defensive supporting cast. A harsher indictment could be levelled at Amobi Okoye, who has showed very little since about the first month or two of his rookie season. The Manchild is just a few years removed from being a teenager, and could blossom as he physically matures and becomes more technically sound, but most IDP owners have lost patience.
Indianapolis
Up - Robert Mathis is enjoying maybe his best season (and that is saying a lot). The CB tandem of Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden was looking like an ascendant duo before being beset by injuries. They have big upside (both individually and together).
Down - Bob Sanders could be an all time great based purely on talent and heart, but his checkered medical record and the prodigious number of missed games on his resume takes some of the luster off and could tarnish his NFL legacy.
Jacksonville
Up - Daryl Smith is already on IR (typical in a lost season), but he is now safely ensconced at MLB pointing towards 2009 and flashed signs that he might be more productive with the opportunity than he has been in the past.
Down - Mike Peterson has lost a half step but can still play, but this became a moot point after landing in Del Rio's dog house. The situation deteriorated to the point where he wasn't even allowed to suit up at one point. He is filling in on an emergency basis with Smith done for the year, but as far as his long term Jacksonville career is concerned, he is a "dead man walking" tenure-wise.
Kansas City
Up - Their draft position in the 2009 draft, which could be #2/#3 based on a titanic battle for worst record after the Lions (who paradoxically refused to be beat at losing), with the toothless (hornless?) Rams. Brandon Flowers and less heralded fellow CB Brandon Carr were among the best rookie DBs and should have a bright future despite the pall on the season given the defense and team as a whole's overall futility.
Down - Lots to choose from here. Expectations should always be modest and tempered when it comes to rookie DL, yet more was expected from top 5 pick Glenn Dorsey. Demorrio Williams became marginalized early when Derrick Johnson was unexpectedly shifted to WLB (not that it was a bad moving, just the timing was a surprise, in the third year of his career... he has been moved since to MLB, though that is in part due to ineffectiveness of existing talent... it is unclear if this is a permanent move... OTOH, i don't think we know conclusively it ISN'T)...
Miami
Up - what a difference a year can make... last year Joey Porter was thought to be on his last legs and the acquisition was ridiculed... in 2008 he has had a Defensive Player of the Year type season...
Down - Channing Crowder's future is murky... he is a gifted athlete, so it makes you wonder if it is an intanglible flaw... Jason Allen was a trendous talent at Tennessee before a potential career-ending hip injury... By all accounts he made a complete phyical recovery, but he has been unable to translate his two-way (run support & pass coverage) playmaking skills flashed in college to the next level... it is looking doubtful he ever will, at least in Miami...
Minnesota
Up - A few players could go here... Kevin Williams had maybe his best year ever (and he was a previous Pro Bowler)... Antoine Winfield had a great comeback from an injury-marred previous season... E.J. Henderson pick right up where he left off after a breakout 2007... but Chad Greenway was the most surprising and impressive breakout, coming somewhat out of nowhere... he flashed signes of being good in the past (missed first season with knee injury & may have been regaining his range of mation and confidence in the knee lasy season), but played at times this year like one of the best up 'n coming young LBs in the league...
Down - Tyrell Johnson was just a rookie, & not necessarily counted on with darren sharper & free agent Madieu Williams... but when Williams went down and he was pressed into action, he played tentatively...
New England
Up - Jerrod Mayo showed why Bill Belichick the talent evaluator allowed Bill Belichick the roster architect to disregard his heuristic of generally avoiding young LBs (his system is complex and by the time they learn it they could be moving on... why train them for somebody else on his own dime & time?)... despite the scheme complexity, he was able to not only carve out a niche from which to contribute, but quickly emerge as probably the pats best defender... looks like he could be a future Pro Bowler (merited consideration as a rookie and a lock for Rookie DPOY)... makes plays all over the field, great instincts, takes good angles to the ball, sheds tackles, flashes an innate knack in coverage and playmaking skills...
Down - Rodney Harrison has been getting hurt with greater frequency in the twilight of his career, and & it wouldn't be a surprise if he has played his last down for the Pats...
New Orleans
Up - Jonathan Vilma bounced back from a knee injury and looked more like the 2005 MLB that led the NFL in tackles and all IDPs in scoring, than the 2006-2007 iteration that was miscast as a 3-4 ILB... the Saints secondary has been an Achilles heel pre-dating even when Jim Haslett was the HC, but the rookie CB Porter was playing at a high level for a rookie and looks like a definite keeper...
Down - Will Smith is supposed to be in the 2nd tier of better young DEs in the league, but he had a very non-descript & uneventful season. Far more was expected after signing a contract extension...
New York (Giants)
Up - Justin Tuck went from being great to maybe the top DE in the league... and he did it without the help of the retired Michael Strahan or IRed Osi Umenyiura.
Down - Matthias Kiwanuka flashes the potential to be great at times, but for some reason hasn't always been capable of sustaining it in a consistent manner... its unclear if it is a motor issue, or one of technical development... he has been shuttled back and forth from DL to LB and back again, which can't have helped in the technique department...
New York (Jets)
Up - Darrelle Revis got a we deserved hawaii invite and looks like he will be a fixture i the future... Though not of great IDP import, in terms of his actual impact and on those around him, Kris Jenkins has been a revelation in the middle.
Down - David Harris looked like he could put up Patrick Willis numbers based on about half a season's worth of work his rookie season in 2007. He came no where close before getting hurt and missing substantial time with a groin injury. Since returning (and improbably while being listed questionable past few weeks), he has redeemed himself and looked much more like the 2007 version. Kerry Rhodes isn't being used the same way he was in 2007, and his stats have suffered accordingly... he is being used in more of a center fielder capacity, and not able to attack the line of scrimmage as much... he also seems to be deployed in more of a structured and disciplined manner, and not allowed to range around and make plays like before...
Oakland
Up - Nnamdi Asomugha is as bad an IDP as he is great an actual cover CB, but he gets props here for a Pro Bowl season... Kirk Morrison had his best season but labors in anomynity and is overshadowed by a dysfunctional front office that is one of the league's laughing stocks...
Down - DeAngelo Hall was an ill-advised free agent signing (as was Javon Walker on offense), and is no longer with the team... Derrick Burgess and Thomas Howard fell off in 2008... the biggest downer could be safety Michael Huff losing his starting job, though the point could be made that not much was expected from him in the first place given his disappointing and underwhelming first few seasons in the league...
Philadelphia
Up - Trent Cole was one of the most productive IDPs... Quentin Mikell exceeded expectations at SS... Stewart Bradley went from being a relatively unknown commodity to looking like he could have top 15-20 upside... Akeem Jordan (sounds like a dream hoops player) has sent Omar Gaither to the bench...
Down - Omar Gaither (see above)...
Pittsburgh
Up - Few to choose from, with Harrison having a DPOY and even league MVP type of season, Troy Polamalu rebounding from a sub-par 2007 season with a vengeance and making the Pro Bowl, James Farrior looked rejuvenated and was also voted in... LaMarr Woodley gets honorable mention for a breakout, borderline Pro Bowl caliber season...
Down - Casey Hampton's season was clouded by conditioning issues... Still, they couldn't have had too many players with down years given their dominant team defense over the course of the season...
San Diego
Up - Eric Weddle took a big step up in his first year as a starting safety... He is very active in run support and has been athletic and big a playmaker as he was advertised coming out of college playing everything but the halftime band instruments...
Down - Matt Wilhelm failed to build on his 2007 season... Antonio Cromartie made some big plays but gave up too many and appeared to regress from his brilliant previous campaign...
San Francisco
Up - Justin Smith was a solid player but never lived up to his former 4th pick overall status. He had by far the best season of his career, which raises the question of whether his previous inability to take his game to the next level had more to do with his supporting cast with the bengals, or, more likely, how he was schemed?
Down - Nate Clements was one of the top IDPs last season and came nowhere close to that level of production in 2008... for a CB that is one of the highest paid defensive players in league history, he wasn't a big difference maker and he failed to generate a number of big plays commensurate with his pay grade...
Seattle
Up - Maybe nobody in a horrific sendoff season for HC Mike Holmgren... Julian Peterson was one of the few players on the stop unit that didn't regress relative to last season.
Down - Pro Bowlers Patrick Kerney and Lofa Tatupu had down seasons that were injury related (and thereby ending Tatupu's incredibly consistent string of productive IDP seasons)... the secondary had a precipitous drop compared to last season... Marcus Trufant was one of the top DBs in IDP leagues in 2007 but fell off a cliff... the safety tandem of Deon Grant and Brian Russell were an integral part of the Seahawks success last season, and their decline played a corresponding negative role this year...
St. Louis
Up - Incoming GM Bill Devaney... If the Rams were a building, they would be condemned, but since they are an NFL franchise, the edifice remains standing, despite chronic, systemic front office and organizational insults that has allowed the internal structure to decay and rot down to the foundation. Devaney will be allowed to rebuild from the ground up. If the Rams are in fact sold to an interest outside St. Louis, even the ground they build on may be new (unless of course they end up back in Los Angeles, which would be old ground).
Down - Outgoing President John Shaw and GM Jay Zygmunt... I once asked a termite inspector how he knew when a building had termites? When you casually rest your hand on a wall and nonchalantly lean and put weight on it, and your whole body falls through the crumbling structure like a scene from a cartoon... you have termites.
Tampa Bay
Up -
Down -
Tennessee
Up -
Down -
Washington
Up -
Down -
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I meant to say that earlier.
)... it just reflects some uncertainty about his ILB/OLB mix entering the 2007 season...
great stuff, Bob......
), but people like willis, beason & vilma (& many others) have proven that 230-240 is plenty big... BTW, not sure where this development leaves tinoisamoa? he did begin his career at SLB, & would probably be OK in coverage & blitzing, but he doesn't have ideal makeup to hold up at SLB... its been awhile, but i'm guessing he dealt with the bigger blockers by running around them, which would compromise the integrity of the defensive gap control... so he might be looking at a situational, reserve role?
