Who will be the biggest ADP movers by August? (1 Viewer)

[Truebluey]

If you do drafts in June and July, you can often get players at remarkable ADPs compared to their later positions. Last year Kareem Hunt would be the best example (8th round in June, 2nd/3rd in August). But there were plenty of other movers - even Kamara moved up from 14/15 to 9/10.

So who are this year's candidates to make a nice return on an early investment?

I'd like to hear others opinions. Some early players I'm keeping an eye on.

a. Derrius Guice.  Currently 6.08.  I think after a few preseason games it's very likely he moves up to the third round on an offense well-positioned to take advantage of the run.

b. Julian Edleman (7.12). All depends on his recovery, of course, but if he steps back into his old role, he'll move up a lot by the end of pre-season.

c. Ronald Jones (9.09).  Doesn't seem to have much competition in the backfield in TB. If he emerges as the clear #1, no way he stays drafted in the 9th round.

Will be interesting to watch, as always.

 

[Dan Hindery]

I think most of the rookie backs are going to rise, so agree on Guice and Jones. My pick for most undervalued right now is Rashaad Penny. Looks like he's going 6.02 in PPR and I think he ends up in the 3rd round by August:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/adp-ppr.php

I think Sammy Watkins works his way higher than his current 7th-round ADP. Could see him landing in 5th/6th range. 

Marshawn Lynch has some upward mobility from his current 8th round ADP if Doug Martin doesn't seriously challenge. Seems like Gruden might want to see if he can turn back the clock and make him a workhorse.

Aaron Jones is the other RB in that range (ADP in 9th round, 105 overall) who could really shoot up. The whispers seem to be that he'll eventually emerge as the guy in GB. If that happens in training camp, he could end up going 2-3 rounds higher. 

At TE, David Njoku (13th round ADP) has the potential to move up quite a bit if he looks good and generates some buzz in camp. He has the athletic profile and I think if Mayfield looks good, people will justifiably also get excited about Njoku.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Not sure where that ADP is pulled from, but it doesn't really jive with what I'm seeing in drafts or other ADP sources.  I see Penny as currenly mid-4th and Guice as mid-3rd, though I agree they will probably rise even from there.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Jerrick McKinnon - seems positioned to be a workhorse in an up and coming offense.

Marlon Mack - makings of a road grader OL with a QB they’ll be looking to handle with care

Robert Woods - pretty solid first year with LA.

 

[Biabreakable]

Just looking at this ADP there are some players where a change has occurred but the ADP does not yet reflect that.

Mike Williams is going with pick 151 or 13.03 which is likely undervalued to begin with, but especially now that Hunter Henry is out for the season. Henry is still listed as the 7th TE at pick 69 when he should not be drafted at all from now on (redraft).

The adjustment for Kamara seems to have already happened and Mark Ingram going at 5.06 or 55th overall seems to have factored in the games missed for suspension already.

I think one of the main things that should cause a player to move up a lot in ADP is an injury to another player that causes drafters to rethink how much they would invest into them. This can happen with a lot of different backfields if this leaves the other RB as the last guy standing. 

For example if Dion Lewis were to be injured at some point (given his history could easily happen) then Derrick Henry likely sees a surge in his ADP. Or say Blount gets cut for some reason then Kerryon Johnsons ADP goes up, or the reverse of these if its Henry or Johnson getting hurt/suspended or what have you.

Other ways this will change is if certain players are named the starters for their teams that haven't been already and/or certain players looking good in preseason games This would be a lot of the rookie RB who haven't been named the starters yet, like Nick Chubb,

I see some value plays but because these players are not really sexy, I don't really expect their ADP to rise that much. Cameron Merridith seems like a nice value to me at pick 119,

Martavius Bryant at pcik 124 might rise if he looks good in preseason. People have been irrationally high on him before, he has appeal I think that could cause him to rise.

Tyler Locket looks like a nice value at pick 170.

I am mostly seeing values at the WR position because the RB as a whole are likely being overdrafted.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

If we are using the adp in the link that the poster used above--

I think that people will start noticing the value at the qb position.  Drew Brees is currently at 75?  I wouldn't be surprised to see him shoot up to closer to the 40-50 range.  Also--Andrew luck at 120 seems like a risk/reward that seems to make sense.  Top 5 qb potential going that late?  Yes please.  Lastly--i do like Derek carr as a sleeper late pick.  ADP at 133 on a team that has jordy and amari. I personally think Amari was playing dinged up last year--and he also looked like he bulked up too much.   I'm hoping amari has sacrificed some muscle to get some more quickness and separation back.  

For wr--I think devante parker is pretty criminally low according to that adp. No more target monster in Landry to compete with should open up lots of targets for him.   He's currently sitting at 101--and I think he could easily go closer to the 50-60 range in drafts that are closer to the start of the season. 

The same list has cameron Meredith at 109--but still lists him as a chicago bear. He's a Saint now and I think he can be a solid ppr wr this season.  I don't think his adp stays at 109--but if that is where he is now--I'd get him.  I think he'll easily be guy that is off the board in the top 60-70 as we get closer to the season. 

For Rb--the name that stands out to me most is spencer ware.  If he's due to be healthy by the start of the season--I think he's being drafted criminally low--and I do think that people might be reaching a bit for Kareem hunt.  It's easy to forget that the starting rb for the chiefs was supposed to be ware last season--and he got hurt.  Hunt then effectively became a bell cow by default and started off very strong.  He actually tailed off a bit as the season progressed.  He may have gotten over-used and my guess is that Reid will not want to risk doing that again.   If ware is healthy--I do think that he will be used and can cut into hunts workload. I also think that ware makes for a great handcuff and instantly becomes a weekly rb2 if hunt goes down.  At the price he is at currently--he makes a lot of sense.  He's one of those guys that can shoot up the adp list if he looks halfway decent in the preseason. 

I also love ronald jones. Living in so-cal allowed me to see him a lot in the usc games.   I really like his style and he's pretty versatile.  I think his adp rises as well

for TE--the name that sticks out to me is mike gesicki at 183.  Solid skill set, solid athlete, and should be in a system that has targets available for him.  I could see his adp rising if he  has moderate success in the preseason.  

 

[BoltBacker]

My all August riser team:

QB: JACOBEY BRISSETT(IND), Jackson(BAL), Allen(BUF)

RB: Cohen(CHI), Jones(GB), Clement(PHI), Roc Thomas(MIN)

WR: B.Butler(ARZ), Pryor(NYJ), Washington(PIT), Godwin(TB), Ross(CIN)

TE: Shaheen(CHI), Smith(TEN), Nick Vannett(SEA)

I'm defining my list a little differently. These are all candidates for August risers but that's often because they will play well before everything goes "live" and are the most likely to have a handful of pre-season highlights vs 2nd/3rd stringers that will make the FF community think they have so much potential that they can't be kept off the field. Some of them have an older or more boring player in front of them on the depth chart and in my experience the FF community doesn't like those type of players nearly as much as NFL coaches. So imo August risers and ROI players are two different lists. Brissett is just a bonus pick.... and we all know why.

 

[BoltBacker]

for TE--the name that sticks out to me is mike gesicki at 183.  Solid skill set, solid athlete, and should be in a system that has targets available for him.  I could see his adp rising if he  has moderate success in the preseason.  

This is a good one, and I'm not even sure it would take moderate success.

Tannehill might play a total of 2 quarters in the preseason? If Gesicki were to get a slightly higher than expected target share over those two quarters the buzz could easily start that he's the new security blanket now that Landry is gone. Add in a single play where Gesicki shows off his athleticism(even if it's vs 2nd/3rd stringers) and runs through the secondary and he will shoot up draft boards. He also has the added benefit that there aren't many exciting "sleepers" in the TE field this year. 

So really the buzz could happen if he just gets a high number of targets for two quarters(whether he creates separation, or runs great routes, or actually catches the ball, or not) and one big athletic highlight play to make people imagine what he could do after the catch on all those (projected) targets.

 

[zamboni]

Robert Woods - pretty solid first year with LA.

Interesting - not sure where his ADP is, but I think he might be overvalued given the addition of Cooks.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Interesting - not sure where his ADP is, but I think he might be overvalued given the addition of Cooks.

FFC has Cooks @ 42; Woods @ 87.

Per game yardage averages including playoffs; Woods 71; Cooks 65.  And Goff will be the worst QB Cooks has played with.  Also, look at downfield splits of Goff v Brady/Brees.

 

[JohnnyU]

Anthony Miller will turn heads.

 

[-OZ-]

for TE--the name that sticks out to me is mike gesicki at 183.  Solid skill set, solid athlete, and should be in a system that has targets available for him.  I could see his adp rising if he  has moderate success in the preseason.  

Gesicki, Deon Yelder and Jake butt should all move up the TE ranking (imo) with decent showing in August.

 

[Ratbone]

Rb- Lamar Miller- He is overlooked too much. Foreman is coming off a bad injury and there is no other competition. With Watson at QB he looked good. By August people will see his top 15 rb potential.

TE- Clay- Not a lot of options there. Will get a lot of training camp work

Dickson- Will be the starter by preseason and he is so low now that he can only really go up. 

 

[zamboni]

Rb- Lamar Miller- He is overlooked too much. Foreman is coming off a bad injury and there is no other competition. With Watson at QB he looked good. By August people will see his top 15 rb potential.

Not sure I agree there. He's not the same guy we saw in Miami - never rushed for over 75 yards last year, and only topped 70 twice. If he exceeds its ADP, it's only due to volume if Foreman doesn't fully recover. Possible I guess, but I wouldn't bank on Miller anymore.

 

[bostonfred]

Jared Goff

Cj Anderson

Kenneth Dixon

Corey Clement

John Ross

Tyler lockett

Marquise Goodwin

Julian Edelman

Hayden hurst 

Greg the leg

Rams d

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Rb- Lamar Miller- He is overlooked too much. Foreman is coming off a bad injury and there is no other competition. With Watson at QB he looked good. By August people will see his top 15 rb potential.

TE- Clay- Not a lot of options there. Will get a lot of training camp work

Dickson- Will be the starter by preseason and he is so low now that he can only really go up. 

Miller is interesting because if you asked me what I thought of him, I would have said he was just a JAG.  But he produced 1200+ YFS and 6 TD's the last 2 seasons (both in a new locale; HOU).  And in 2016, in 14 games.

But I also get the sense that HOU isn't impressed with the production they are getting from him.  A lot of us evaluate players based on ability/situation...and that's a good model.  But one that gets overlooked is commitment - and I think the commitment is low here.

 

[Stealthycat]

target veterans who have not signed with anyone

RB DMurray  would be top of the list IMO - he's still a solid RB and could prove to be a great add now vs later

 

[cloppbeast]

Either Jordan Wilkins or Nyheim Hines. One or both of them will get significant touches for the Colts. This has to be one the most open competitions at running back. Somehow Mack has a high ADP while the other two have really low ones, not sure why this is happening. No rookie fever? Anyway, it will likely change by my estimation with pre-season games and camp reports. Mack isn't that good.

 

[Chaka]

Guys we do this every year.

ADP by Round & Pick (e.g. Guice 4.3) is completely useless information because it speaks nothing to the parameters of our individual leagues. Drew Brees never gets out of the second round in my league because it's a super-flex league so if I say Drew Brees 2.2, does that help inform anyone's opinion relative to their league?

It is far, far more relevant to say how many players at that position were taken before the player in question (e.g. Guice RB18 or Drew Brees QB4).

 

[Biabreakable]

target veterans who have not signed with anyone

RB DMurray  would be top of the list IMO - he's still a solid RB and could prove to be a great add now vs later

The talk about MIller and Foreman had me thinking about Adrian Petersons interest in playing for them.

It would make sense for the Texans if Foreman isn't able to recover to the same ability after his injury. Guys like Murray and Peterson being out there is some extra insurance for them.

 

[Chaka]

The talk about MIller and Foreman had me thinking about Adrian Petersons interest in playing for them.

It would make sense for the Texans if Foreman isn't able to recover to the same ability after his injury. Guys like Murray and Peterson being out there is some extra insurance for them.

It didn't seem like AP had much left to give and I would be particularly wary of him running behind what I have pegged as the worst offensive line in the league in Houston.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

David Njoko TE Cleveland Browns.

Current ADP at 179 to 180.

• Recently named starter
  
• QB has improved
  
•  WRs improved, i.e. he'll get benefit from coverage matchups especially in the red zone
  
• Second year TE bump
  
• Improved as a blocker so he's not coming off the field
  

I don't think ADP has caught up to him to where he will be after people get a peek at what he does in camp. 

Right now, at this point, he's a bargain.

 

[ericttspikes]

not a sexy pick, but I like the chances that undrafted K Eddy Pineiro beats out Giorgio Tavecchio for the Raiders job. Easy to get him in the 28th round in early drafts if you sluff kickers.

 

[BoltBacker]

The talk about MIller and Foreman had me thinking about Adrian Petersons interest in playing for them.

It would make sense for the Texans if Foreman isn't able to recover to the same ability after his injury. Guys like Murray and Peterson being out there is some extra insurance for them.

I think if HOU signed Peterson, my ranking for Miller would go up. It means HOU doesn't think Foreman is as close to returning as the FF world thinks he is. Peterson could vulture TD's and would would be smart to finish his career as a strictly GL back but I'm not sure his ego will allow him to play that role. He looked very, very unhappy in N.O. and it was pretty obvious he was the back that fit that offense the worst. From what I've seen Peterson is simply getting what is blocked for him these days. I'm not even sure he's a better GL back than Miller but saving that short yardage punishment would save him for the playoffs.

Murray on the other hand and his potential to cut into the Miller work load all over the field would worry me more.

 

[Jacksonke1]

Probably not significant enough for this thread but I could see George Kittle picking up some spots based on some Jimmy G highlight chunk plays, at least in his current tier. Hard to leap frog him too far up over others though.

 

[zamboni]

Royce Freeman is an interesting one considering he has to beat out only Booker and Henderson for the top job.

 

[Jello_Biafra]

Goodwin. Eventually people will realize he's the number 1 on what is supposed to be high powered offense.

 

[Biabreakable]

Probably not significant enough for this thread but I could see George Kittle picking up some spots based on some Jimmy G highlight chunk plays, at least in his current tier. Hard to leap frog him too far up over others though.

Good call. I was eyeing Kittles low price point as well.

 

[Mister CIA]

Rico!

 

[Football Jones]

Rico!

If Rico looks good in camp/preseason, he could potentially be THE biggest ADP gainer of the offseason.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think if HOU signed Peterson, my ranking for Miller would go up. It means HOU doesn't think Foreman is as close to returning as the FF world thinks he is. Peterson could vulture TD's and would would be smart to finish his career as a strictly GL back but I'm not sure his ego will allow him to play that role. He looked very, very unhappy in N.O. and it was pretty obvious he was the back that fit that offense the worst. From what I've seen Peterson is simply getting what is blocked for him these days. I'm not even sure he's a better GL back than Miller but saving that short yardage punishment would save him for the playoffs.

Murray on the other hand and his potential to cut into the Miller work load all over the field would worry me more.

Murray is a better receiver than Peterson for sure.

I just can't bet against Peterson. Was happy when the Vikings let him go but as long as he is breathing I can't totally write him off. Even with the evidence of his decline before he left Minnesota.

Murray was rather pedestrian last year as well, but the Titans were playing him hurt.

 

[Dan Hindery]

Not sure where that ADP is pulled from, but it doesn't really jive with what I'm seeing in drafts or other ADP sources.  I see Penny as currenly mid-4th and Guice as mid-3rd, though I agree they will probably rise even from there.

Always tough to talk about ADP since it depends so much on what source you are using. Some guys are underrated in some ADP and just right in others.

On Penny, I've been doing a lot of Best Ball drafts on Draft.com. His ADP is currently listed #73 there. He's mostly going 4th round or early 5th in the lower-dollar drafts though, so I'd guess his actual ADP is ~45. In the bigger money drafts, he's pretty consistently in the mid-late 3rd. 

Draft has Guice with and ADP of 39 overall. Think that will hold steady or maybe fall a bit. I'm more worried about Chris Thompson still having a big role than a lot of other people seem to be. 

 

[Dan Hindery]

If we are using the adp in the link that the poster used above--

I think that people will start noticing the value at the qb position.  Drew Brees is currently at 75?  I wouldn't be surprised to see him shoot up to closer to the 40-50 range.  Also--Andrew luck at 120 seems like a risk/reward that seems to make sense.  Top 5 qb potential going that late?  Yes please.  Lastly--i do like Derek carr as a sleeper late pick.  ADP at 133 on a team that has jordy and amari. I personally think Amari was playing dinged up last year--and he also looked like he bulked up too much.   I'm hoping amari has sacrificed some muscle to get some more quickness and separation back.  

For wr--I think devante parker is pretty criminally low according to that adp. No more target monster in Landry to compete with should open up lots of targets for him.   He's currently sitting at 101--and I think he could easily go closer to the 50-60 range in drafts that are closer to the start of the season. 

The same list has cameron Meredith at 109--but still lists him as a chicago bear. He's a Saint now and I think he can be a solid ppr wr this season.  I don't think his adp stays at 109--but if that is where he is now--I'd get him.  I think he'll easily be guy that is off the board in the top 60-70 as we get closer to the season. 

For Rb--the name that stands out to me most is spencer ware.  If he's due to be healthy by the start of the season--I think he's being drafted criminally low--and I do think that people might be reaching a bit for Kareem hunt.  It's easy to forget that the starting rb for the chiefs was supposed to be ware last season--and he got hurt.  Hunt then effectively became a bell cow by default and started off very strong.  He actually tailed off a bit as the season progressed.  He may have gotten over-used and my guess is that Reid will not want to risk doing that again.   If ware is healthy--I do think that he will be used and can cut into hunts workload. I also think that ware makes for a great handcuff and instantly becomes a weekly rb2 if hunt goes down.  At the price he is at currently--he makes a lot of sense.  He's one of those guys that can shoot up the adp list if he looks halfway decent in the preseason. 

I also love ronald jones. Living in so-cal allowed me to see him a lot in the usc games.   I really like his style and he's pretty versatile.  I think his adp rises as well

for TE--the name that sticks out to me is mike gesicki at 183.  Solid skill set, solid athlete, and should be in a system that has targets available for him.  I could see his adp rising if he  has moderate success in the preseason.  

I think we might actually see the QB ADP start to fall a little bit. It's almost impossible not to be attracted to the late-round QB strategy this season because the position is crazy deep. Especially if Luck gets healthy. We're doing an over/undervalued article series here and I mentioned Aaron Rodgers. Not that I think he'll have a bad season or anything, but it seems crazy to take any QB in the 3rd round this year when there are guys like Rivers, Roethlisberger, Luck, Mahomes, etc. available so much later.

At TE, I think we could see Vance McDonald as the biggest riser between now and the season. He's starting to generate some hype in OTAs and is a pretty good athlete. That 10 catch game his last outing (playoffs vs. Jacksonville) is going to get mentioned a lot between now and September if he locks that starting job down in Pitt.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Mahomes

 

[pbandy1]

Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, Kerryon Johnson, Jonathan Williams, Mike Williams, Chris Godwin, Ricky  Seals-Jones, 

 

[pbandy1]

I think most of the rookie backs are going to rise, so agree on Guice and Jones. My pick for most undervalued right now is Rashaad Penny. Looks like he's going 6.02 in PPR and I think he ends up in the 3rd round by August:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/adp-ppr.php

I think Sammy Watkins works his way higher than his current 7th-round ADP. Could see him landing in 5th/6th range. 

Marshawn Lynch has some upward mobility from his current 8th round ADP if Doug Martin doesn't seriously challenge. Seems like Gruden might want to see if he can turn back the clock and make him a workhorse.

Aaron Jones is the other RB in that range (ADP in 9th round, 105 overall) who could really shoot up. The whispers seem to be that he'll eventually emerge as the guy in GB. If that happens in training camp, he could end up going 2-3 rounds higher. 

At TE, David Njoku (13th round ADP) has the potential to move up quite a bit if he looks good and generates some buzz in camp. He has the athletic profile and I think if Mayfield looks good, people will justifiably also get excited about Njoku.

I like the Sammy Watkins call. I do love Jones as well but I wonder how the touches will divvy up in preseason

 

[pbandy1]

Goodwin. Eventually people will realize he's the number 1 on what is supposed to be high powered offense.

actually I think he'll be overdrafted - I think Pettis and Garcon will show well and you have Kittle, and McKinnon out of the backfield. But hey, that's just me.

 

[pbandy1]

Always tough to talk about ADP since it depends so much on what source you are using. Some guys are underrated in some ADP and just right in others.

On Penny, I've been doing a lot of Best Ball drafts on Draft.com. His ADP is currently listed #73 there. He's mostly going 4th round or early 5th in the lower-dollar drafts though, so I'd guess his actual ADP is ~45. In the bigger money drafts, he's pretty consistently in the mid-late 3rd. 

Draft has Guice with and ADP of 39 overall. Think that will hold steady or maybe fall a bit. I'm more worried about Chris Thompson still having a big role than a lot of other people seem to be. 

I worry about Thompson too - think Guice will be a workhorse and is a solid pass catcher. I'd rather take Tarik Cohen.

 

[Borden]

I feel this is a cheat, cop out, etc. But... 

Brandon Marshall. He’s so low and Wilson is an elite QB that he will get drafted. So, from undrafted to drafted technically will make him a riser. Plus, a bit of residual name value.

In the same vein, Dez Bryant. Eventually. Maybe. 

 

[Chaka]

Would someone please explain to me how saying WR X has an 7th round ADP, or is being drafted 75 helps inform my decision for my league(s)?

From my perspective I have no idea what kind of league that ADP represents. Is it RB heavy? Super-flex? WR/TE combo? 6 points for all TDs? Yardage league? PPR? 1/2 PPR? etc.

Why doesn't it make more sense to say that WR X is being drafted as the 28 WR off the board? Sure that format doesn't cover every scenario as some guys move up or down a bit in PPR leagues vs non-PPR leagues but, from my perspective, it covers a lot more ground than saying a guy has a 7th round ADP.

Please help me understand what I am missing.

 

[massraider]

Lamar Jackson.

First preseason game he plays. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Yet they didn't draft an rb in an rb rich draft.  You could say that is due to Foreman, but I think it is very dangerous to put your rb eggs in a torn Achilles rb basket.

I can see the less than exciting stats from Miller like anyone else, but from week 2-8 (When Watson was playing), Miller averaged 15.4 in ppr which was the 12th highest rb ppg.  

Miller isn't a difference maker but I think he is solid rb2 this year.  I understand if someone thinks Foreman will come back and play a significant role.  That changes everything. I just don't see that happening.

They could still sign Murray or Peterson or wait out some roster casualties - but obviously that's likely less of a threat than an early round rookie pick.

 

[Borden]

Would someone please explain to me how saying WR X has an 7th round ADP, or is being drafted 75 helps inform my decision for my league(s)?

From my perspective I have no idea what kind of league that ADP represents. Is it RB heavy? Super-flex? WR/TE combo? 6 points for all TDs? Yardage league? PPR? 1/2 PPR? etc.

Why doesn't it make more sense to say that WR X is being drafted as the 28 WR off the board? Sure that format doesn't cover every scenario as some guys move up or down a bit in PPR leagues vs non-PPR leagues but, from my perspective, it covers a lot more ground than saying a guy has a 7th round ADP.

Please help me understand what I am missing.

I think you’re missing the point of thread. Any players that are only going to be adjusted based on individual league intricacies probably shouldn’t be on the list. These are supposed to be the “biggest” movers. If a players is only going to be moving a round or only moving in certain leagues than they probably aren’t going to be the biggest movers.

Biabreakable also posted a link to the Draft Calculator ADP as a reference.

 

[tangfoot]

Lamar Jackson.

First preseason game he plays. 

Not even in Dynasty.  His future is already priced into his cost, and unless you are predicting an injury to Flacco, he'll be holding a clipboard for the entire season.

 

[massraider]

Not even in Dynasty.  His future is already priced into his cost, and unless you are predicting an injury to Flacco, he'll be holding a clipboard for the entire season.

I'm predicting Flacco  to be Flacco, so I think assuming Jackson sits all year without question is brave. 

 

[Chaka]

I think you’re missing the point of thread. Any players that are only going to be adjusted based on individual league intricacies probably shouldn’t be on the list. These are supposed to be the “biggest” movers. If a players is only going to be moving a round or only moving in certain leagues than they probably aren’t going to be the biggest movers.

Biabreakable also posted a link to the Draft Calculator ADP as a reference.

Apologies, my question was not intended to be specific to this thread it's more of a comment on my general observation over the years.  It is far more common in any thread for people to talk about Round.Pick or overall pick number than where an individual player was drafted among others at his position.  I have commented on it every year for...ever.

I feel like it is a relic from the days when all leagues were standard scoring leagues.

At any rate, thanks for the response.

I should probably start a thread on it.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

I'm predicting Flacco  to be Flacco, so I think assuming Jackson sits all year without question is brave. 

Personally think there's little to no chance Flacco starts all year there. Whether it's RG3 or Jackson (I'd guess the latter) I don't think Flacco's leash is long whatsoever. Really wouldn't shock me if Flacco weren't starting Week 1. W/o his contract this year guaranteed, he'd have been long gone already..

 

[tangfoot]

Personally think there's little to no chance Flacco starts all year there. Whether it's RG3 or Jackson (I'd guess the latter) I don't think Flacco's leash is long whatsoever. Really wouldn't shock me if Flacco weren't starting Week 1. W/o his contract this year guaranteed, he'd have been long gone already..

I'll take you up on that bet.  Barring injury, Joe starts every game.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I'll take you up on that bet.  Barring injury, Joe starts every game.

IMO a huge factor will be their record....Flacco looked really bad at times last year....BAL moved up to get the kid....most fan bases will want to see the new first round toy if the season is toast...a bad record means a a higher draft pick and at some point they will want to see what they have in the kid to help prepare for the next draft, and the one after that, etc....personally I think he gets a shot at some point injury to Flacco or no injury...

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Yet they didn't draft an rb in an rb rich draft.  You could say that is due to Foreman, but I think it is very dangerous to put your rb eggs in a torn Achilles rb basket.

I can see the less than exciting stats from Miller like anyone else, but from week 2-8 (When Watson was playing), Miller averaged 15.4 in ppr which was the 12th highest rb ppg.  

Miller isn't a difference maker but I think he is solid rb2 this year.  I understand if someone thinks Foreman will come back and play a significant role.  That changes everything. I just don't see that happening.

It's a fair point...who would eat up the carries/touches?

During that stretch though you discuss, a big part of Miller's production came via 1) TD (4 in 6 games) and 2) volume - 118 touches in that 6 game stretch.  I believe Foreman averaged 10 touches during that same stretch for the 5 games he played (he missed SEA or didn't log any production).

So I think Miller's production during that time was based on metrics that are more variable than you would like.  Did he just get TD hot while Watson was there?  His TD/game rate w/HOU with no Watson is half of what it was with him.  And then from a volume perspective, Miller's degradation over the course of a season with high workloads is well-chronicled.  Couple that with the fact that he's in the 3rd year of a 4 year deal, and I think there are enough question marks on Miller without the requisite upside for my liking.

The last point I'd make is that while you are right that the Texans didn't draft an RB, they also didn't pick until Round 3 - by the time they made their first selection, 7 RB's were off the board.  The first RB drafted after the Texans selected was Royce Freeman - a very close comparison of D'Onta Foreman.  So I don't know if I would classify the Texans not drafting an RB as faith in Miller/Foreman or recognizing the value wasn't there.