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who will be the biggest fantasy dissapointment in 2011 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter zilladog
- Start date
The Dynasty
Footballguy
MJD. Knee worries me and lack of offense outside of him.
sihaokills
Footballguy
I believe most will do great as expected but I think AP and Greg Jennings could go a little worse than expected. I just feel like AP will be stacked on and will have no space to run. Jennings has Finley back but I don't think it will be a big impact.
adrenaline
Footballguy
It pained me to vote Finley, I think he's the most likely to get injured.
zilladog
Footballguy
Its cool. I'm not worried about it. I watched a kung-fu movie once, so I could prolly take him.
Largent
Footballguy
zilladog
Footballguy
Does A.P. ever have space to run? Isn't the box always stacked against him? Doesn't he usually make them all look silly in the end anyway?As far as Jennings, I totally agree Finley is a legit concern, but Jennings could still eat into Driver's targets to at least stay on par with his usual amount of targets/receptions
Largent
Footballguy
AP looks good on paper, but Minnesota as a team this year - dicey at best. I'd way rather have Foster with the same offense + healthy complimentary weapons + better D (you'd think anyways). AP will not be top 3....more like 4-8. Therefore, a dissapointment. Just my 2 cents.
bengalbuck
Footballguy
I voted Finley, though it may be unfair he's even included with this groups as he's being drafted later.
I just think that he is the only guy on this list who has never put together a good NFL season. He looked good the 2nd half of his 2nd year and finally started to make an impact, but overall his numbers were just okay. Then last year with big things expected he had 4 good, but not spectacular games (1 TD).
In the 4 games he played last year, the Packers offense was okay. They scored about 25 ppg and Rodgers threw for about 240 yards per game. Immediately after his injury, Rodgers put 3 straight games together of 290+ yards passing. And the offense seemed pretty unstoppable down the stretch with the guys they had.
I think Finley is a great talent and he has arguably the best QB in the game getting him the ball. I think the hype is completely warranted. However, he is pretty risky anywhere near the 1st round as he could put up career stats far better than any of his first 3 years and still not be worth the pick. I think it is possible too as other guys have emerged in his absence and proven on the biggest stage that they can do it. I see something like 60-880-7. Very nice TE numbers, but not quite what you are hoping for if you're talking about him 1st round.
I just think that he is the only guy on this list who has never put together a good NFL season. He looked good the 2nd half of his 2nd year and finally started to make an impact, but overall his numbers were just okay. Then last year with big things expected he had 4 good, but not spectacular games (1 TD).
In the 4 games he played last year, the Packers offense was okay. They scored about 25 ppg and Rodgers threw for about 240 yards per game. Immediately after his injury, Rodgers put 3 straight games together of 290+ yards passing. And the offense seemed pretty unstoppable down the stretch with the guys they had.
I think Finley is a great talent and he has arguably the best QB in the game getting him the ball. I think the hype is completely warranted. However, he is pretty risky anywhere near the 1st round as he could put up career stats far better than any of his first 3 years and still not be worth the pick. I think it is possible too as other guys have emerged in his absence and proven on the biggest stage that they can do it. I see something like 60-880-7. Very nice TE numbers, but not quite what you are hoping for if you're talking about him 1st round.
Invictus~Bronte
Footballguy
Chris Johnson
Rookie or Lame duck QB
New Coach staff after 17 years that hasn't had a camp yet
2 years of top end touches and wore down the end of last year.
Not much help to keep heat off especially if Britt continues his antics. Plenty loaded boxes again
May even hold out or be distracted about money. If he misses any camp time will really underperform
Rookie or Lame duck QB
New Coach staff after 17 years that hasn't had a camp yet
2 years of top end touches and wore down the end of last year.
Not much help to keep heat off especially if Britt continues his antics. Plenty loaded boxes again
May even hold out or be distracted about money. If he misses any camp time will really underperform
werdnoynek
Footballguy
jennings is a potential first round pick? you've got to be kidding me. take him in the first round and you're guaranteed to be disappointed imo.
FUBAR
Footballguy
I'm a huge fan of course, but I agree with this. I don't see him outside of the RB1 caliber, but not top 3-5 either unless Munchak is better than I suspect in his first year.
Detroit Revival
Footballguy
My vote was for Foster. I owned him last year in two leagues. I was hoping for good things but got a lot more. The question is who will be the biggest disappointment and I believe Foster will have a solid year, but not top 3. CJ will bounce back, AP will do what AP does, and J. Charles will benefit from more carries. Not being top 3 will be a disappointment to those that drafted him #1.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Foster.
CJ2k if he holds out, and I bet he does.
CJ2k if he holds out, and I bet he does.
dmac37
Footballguy
footballsavvy
Footballguy
McCoy
His game is predicated on receptions. In his breakout year he barely cracked 1000 yards. I don't believe he has the same talent as a young Westbrook but the Philly system is unbelievable.
The reason I fear him being a bust is I believe the Eagles will sign a complimentary piece like Reggie Bush or Darren Sproles.
Of all elite backs, McCoy seems to be the most dependent on his system. He absolutely fears contact! I believe he is more Reggie Bush than Ray Rice and his unwillingness to fight for yards will catch up with him.
He is also considered injury prone so there is also that.
Finally, the eagles as a whole caught the league off guard last year. DC's will have a plan ready for Vick and Desean is already starting to flake out!
McCoy is not the type player to carry an offense.
Bad things for he and the Eagles this season IMO.
His game is predicated on receptions. In his breakout year he barely cracked 1000 yards. I don't believe he has the same talent as a young Westbrook but the Philly system is unbelievable.
The reason I fear him being a bust is I believe the Eagles will sign a complimentary piece like Reggie Bush or Darren Sproles.
Of all elite backs, McCoy seems to be the most dependent on his system. He absolutely fears contact! I believe he is more Reggie Bush than Ray Rice and his unwillingness to fight for yards will catch up with him.
He is also considered injury prone so there is also that.
Finally, the eagles as a whole caught the league off guard last year. DC's will have a plan ready for Vick and Desean is already starting to flake out!
McCoy is not the type player to carry an offense.
Bad things for he and the Eagles this season IMO.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I think both Peterson and CJ are going to be disappointing due to their top 3 drafting positions. I don't see them finishing in the top 5 to be honest.
fightingillini
Footballguy
McCoy isn't a great runner, and Vick vultures way too many TDs. Can't see McCoy getting over 240-250 carries. McCoy is a big risk in round 1.
zilladog
Footballguy
I was just trying to account for really deep leaguees and unconventional scoring systems. Its a broad window. Better just to think of them as 'players drfated to be an owners #1 at that position'.
Biggest disappointment has to be judged by reference to ADP. With that in mind, I think the answer is Foster. He will be drafted as a top-3 RB, and there's a good change he only performs at RB10-RB15 range. MJD may have a higher risk of encountering major problems, but people are already are taking that into account by discounting his draft position.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
Foster is solid, McCoy is solid. IF those guys are busts it'll be because they get hurt, but they both have ability and both should produce. If you're picking those guys as a bust for round 1 compared to Finley, something is wrong.
Finley's done nothing to deserve being a round 1 pick, saying he's a safer round 1 pick than Foster or McCoy is crazy talk. Gates isn't a safe round 1 pick either, but I'd take him over Finley.
I can see why MJD has people worried. I'm not in love with Peterson's situation in Minnesota but he's the guy and he'll have some very good games and some bad ones and ultimately be good but not fantastic.
Chris Johnson is hard to figure out, I expect we see more of what we saw last year compared to what we saw 2 years ago.
I like Foster as the top choice, if I don't get him then I wouldn't mind drafting down around 7 to 10.
Finley's done nothing to deserve being a round 1 pick, saying he's a safer round 1 pick than Foster or McCoy is crazy talk. Gates isn't a safe round 1 pick either, but I'd take him over Finley.
I can see why MJD has people worried. I'm not in love with Peterson's situation in Minnesota but he's the guy and he'll have some very good games and some bad ones and ultimately be good but not fantastic.
Chris Johnson is hard to figure out, I expect we see more of what we saw last year compared to what we saw 2 years ago.
I like Foster as the top choice, if I don't get him then I wouldn't mind drafting down around 7 to 10.
gethugefast1
Footballguy
Voted ADP.
Because of his high rank (#2 here) and concern that his O-line is not as good as it once was and obviously the quarterback situation in Minnesota leaves a lot to be desired.
Because of his high rank (#2 here) and concern that his O-line is not as good as it once was and obviously the quarterback situation in Minnesota leaves a lot to be desired.
zilladog
Footballguy
For the record, the list is arbitrary. They are listed in no particular order. Just as they came into my head.Try not to get too hung up on the round 1 thing either. I probably shouldn't have put it in those words. I was just listing players who most expect to be anchors for their teams, and as a result would get drafted high. I would never consider many of these guys first round picks in standard leagues, but in certain types of leagues with unconventional scoring etc. They may be first rounders.
Phantom Knight
Footballguy
I voted Johnson for the same reason as well. I FINALLY got him in a trade last year only to see him disappoint with injuries. I still count him as a WR1 but I think his injuries/age will start to take their toll this year. But I think many folks will still draft him as one of the 2 or 3 super elite wrs and as such will be disappointed in his production.I also voted MoJo due to his knee. I think that the Jags will cut his touches this year to try to help him hold up.I did not vote on Jennings/Finley and while I don't have an idea which of the two will disappoint, I think one of them will. I say that assuming that there are no significant injuries to either.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Based on where you'll have to grab him in redraft, I gotta go Vick.
FavreAndAwayAnIdiot
Footballguy
Finley. No way they focus on him like the did prior to his injury last year. He'll have a few really big games, but he'll disappear, thus making him a damn frustrating guy to start. He'll be top-10, barring injury, but not top 3, and won't live up to his ADP.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
I don't necessarily disagree with your choice, but considering he put up numbers that almost no one has EVER reached, let alone twice, your second statement isn't saying much.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Can`t see Finley going in the first rd.
How are we measuring "dissapointment" here? Obviously Finley has a decent chance to get hurt and not live up to the hype, but is it really going to hurt your FF team all that much? It's much easier to replace a TE, even a hyped up one drafted in the 4th-6th rounds, than your #1 RB taken in the 1st.
So while I think Finley has one of the better chances at missing his expectations out of this list, I think any of the RBs dissapointing would be a much "bigger" issue for FF teams, if that makes sense.
So while I think Finley has one of the better chances at missing his expectations out of this list, I think any of the RBs dissapointing would be a much "bigger" issue for FF teams, if that makes sense.
snellman
Footballguy
I also think it is going to be Foster. I have seen him go #1 in way too many drafts. I think the is the "latest flavor" craze that we see way too often in this game. AD and CJ have both been very good performers for multiple seasons and have already done it without the best QB play at times. IMO you want your first round pick to be your safest pick and if you go by ADP Foster has the best chance to disappoint.
ItsOnlytheRiver
Footballguy
He finished as the #2 WR in PPG. 7th in overall points. Disappointed? That's harsh.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
Then it is really a flawed pollWouldn't it be easy to take top twelve from ADP and use that or restate the poll?I think the one player being drafted in the first round that I would have voted for is Michael Vick
zilladog
Footballguy
Admittedly, I left Vick off of the poll by mistake, he should clearly be on here. But it really doesn't matter, because you can just cast your vote on the players that ARE there. This isn't a poll asking "who the number 1 dissapointment" is, but rather who, of the players listed, is most likely to let owners down. I don't think its confusing or flawed. I didn't use the top 12 ADP because I wanted more than 12 players and I wanted all of the skill positions represented (which is why you see 2 TE's tagged on to the end). I tried to list players that I felt would be drafted to be the #1 at their position. In other words, to be relied upon to be an anchor and stud for your team.Sorry if I confused anyone as to the purpose of the poll. I thought it was self explanatory but I guess it wasn't. Anyway, vote on!
Tanner9919
Footballguy
not sure what you mean, 'system guys' always hang around for a long time..Terrell Davis was a system guy,lasted a few years at the top of the NFL , in the same exact system with the same coach as Foster has now in Houston..only a blown knee stopped him.Norv Turner has a system too ( Don Coryell), guys like Emmitt Smith, LT2, Terry Allen did very well and for a number of years under Norv Turner..Cam Cameron runs the same offense in Balt., and that's largely why Ray Rice is already at or near the top in his brief NFL career in terms of RB stats ( he's considered a top 5 fantasy back this season).. Marshall Faulk played in that same system in St Louis..Steven Jackson is a system guy..some of the systems out there prefer RBBC , such as Sean Payton's system in N.O., Garrett in Dallas, Shottenheimer with NYJ..you see more of a personnel turnover in those systems than some of the other ones. with 'system' guys, you only see a turnover if/when they get injured. otherwise they're around for a while..my vote was for Antonio Gates - a 31 yr old TE...he was the SD offense last season, catching 50 balls and 10 TDS in just 10 games played.but those numbers will fall off sharply if Vjax plays a full 16 game shedule with SD this season, he already has been 'franchised' by the Chargers. if he doesn't play thats another thing,but a 31-yr old TE coming off plantar fasciitis injury, playing for a team that discovered it had other options without him, and with the possibility of VJax coming back, all signs point to a down year for Gates, IMO...
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HellToupee
Footballguy
On the list I voted Chris Johnson. I think if he holds out it will be an ugly year for him
off the list I'll say Wes Welker
off the list I'll say Wes Welker
Phantom Knight
Footballguy
I could have worded that better. But yes *I* was disappointed. I traded for Andre mid-season. He was was injured much of the 2nd half of the season. He was a GTD a few times and having to decide early, I sat him only to see him play - he is definitely a warrior. But he did miss 3 games last season included the last 2 (playoffs). In the time I had him, he was outscored by the receiver I traded away in exchange (and it was a 2-for-1 exchange with a rb thrown in). There are many scoring formats, it is impossible to say definitely that so-and-so was THE #2 WR or THE #7 overall top-score. In our league scoring format, he was neither of the above. So yes, again, I was disappointed. It happens, it is part of the game.Back on point, (again in our league scoring format), Andre's scoring has declined in each of the last 3 years:2008: 2722009: 2522010: 207 (to be fair 3 games missed)It is very possible that AJ bounces back this year. But my gut feeling and why I posted as I did is that given his age and the toll being a warrior takes on the body, I see enough of a trend to believe that the days of Andre being a garanteed top-3 wr are coming to an end...this season.'ItsOnlytheRiver said:
az_prof
Footballguy
Your comment is why I voted for him. I expect him to be good, but the expectations for him are hyper inflated. My feeling is that the team is going to try to get the ball to more of its young players this season and I have heard the coaching staff say that. I look for proven consistency in my top players because there is so much turnover in the top 10, especially for RBs.
az_prof
Footballguy
I agree with this. I expect him to regress to the norm somewhat, while still being good.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
He's probably not getting votes because I don't think anyone really sees him as true round 1 pick. I haven't looked at any ADP numbers but I'd be surprised if he goes before Round 4 in many re-draft leagues. At that point how big of a disappointment could he be?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Which player in the league doesn't have a decent chance to get hurt? Are people really predicting Finley will get hurt, just because he did last year?
It's not just last year- he was hurt the year before and has had multiple knee surgeries including staph infection in the knee. I own him, and I'm not predicting he gets hurt, but yes, I think he has a higher probability than a lot of players because of this history.
