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Who will be this year's "Get a Piece" offense? (1 Viewer)

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
Many years, there's an offense that takes the league by storm, scores a ton of points, and makes just about everyone associated with it fantasy-relevant. Elite guys stay elite, really good guys make the leap, and a couple rando guys have career years where they're suddenly startable. In 2018, it was the Chiefs, in 2019, the Ravens. Last year there was no obvious example, but closest was probably the Packers. Adams was Adams, Jones jumped from a 2nd rounder to a 1st, Rodgers reminded us he was still elite, and Tonyan was the beneficiary of Rodgers' ridiculous TD rate.

Historical examples include the 2015 Panthers, 2013 Broncos, 2004 Colts (Brandon Stokely, anyone?) and of course, the '07 Pats.

A common thread among most of these teams is that a) they didn't have a ton of hype entering the season, and b) they announced their presence with a statement game in Week 1. Think of Moss torturing the Jets in '07, Peyton throwing for 7 TDs in '13, Ravens bum-rushing the Dolphins in '19.

So who, if anyone, will it be this year? Obvious candidate is the Rams. I could easily see us looking back a few weeks in and realizing of course McVay + Stafford was going to set the league on fire. Woods or (more likely) Kupp elevates to a WR1, Henderson gets into low-end RB1 territory, and there are enough TDs to go around that Higbee and maybe even Michel become weekly starters. Hell, maybe there are some weeks where Van Jefferson is the hot WW add.

Any other candidates? And more importantly, once we ID the breakout offense, is there anything actionable? With the Rams, probably not, since just about all of those guys are already on a roster. On the other hand, let's say hypothetically that you thought the Dolphins could be this year's breakout. Waddle and Fuller were probably drafted, but Parker is sitting out there on a lot of WWs (40% owned in Yahoo), and it's certainly within the realm of possibility that he could end up as their WR1.

 

Grahamburn

Footballguy
I'm hopeful for a Parker bounceback, but I just I don't see it with Tua. 

The Bengals with a healthy Burrow seem to be overlooked right now.

Carolina had 3 top 25 WRs last year.  I'm not sure if Darnold is better than Teddy, but a healthy CMC on that team makes them very dangerous.

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
I'm hopeful for a Parker bounceback, but I just I don't see it with Tua. 

The Bengals with a healthy Burrow seem to be overlooked right now.

Carolina had 3 top 25 WRs last year.  I'm not sure if Darnold is better than Teddy, but a healthy CMC on that team makes them very dangerous.
IMO, I think people do not account for the "big picture" of teams having more weapons. For example, with CMC out most of the season last year, CAR produced 3 Top 25 WR. The season before that, when CMC went nuts, they produced one. IMO, if CMC comes back healthy and gets anywhere near 400 touches again, that will ultimately hurt the receiving corps more than it will help it. The Top 3 receivers on the team had 300 targets in 2019 vs. close to 360 last year. In general, people should be subtracting production when that happens, not adding production. If I were a Panthers fan, I would definitely be concerned about Darnold being the QB.

A team not yet mentioned in this thread yet is TB. They have so many weapons that some people are projecting big years for 3 WR, 3 RB, and 2 TE. But there is only one football, and IMO the sum of the parts in Tampa will be over projected compared to what the actual end totals will be. Last year, the Bucs had about 150 touches from fantasy irrelevant depth players. People generally don't account for those types of players . . . that was about 20% of the total touches for the team in 2020. NFL teams will always have players like that as depth pieces or run plays for non-stars to surprise the other team. Those are also the type of receivers that will get open because they will draw the least defensive coverage.

This phenomena used to happen all the time when Brady played for NE. People started making crazy projections for anyone that played on the Patriots offense, and they seemingly would have needed to produce 8,000 yards and 80 TD to meet the combined projected totals for all their offensive players combined. Bottom line, a 16 ounce pizza can't be cut into eight 4 ounce slices.

As far as the Bengals go, Chase looks like he hasn't played in almost 2 years, has gotten little separation, and has been dropping a lot of passes. I don't know if he's just out of shape for now or what his issue is. Maybe he will pick things up as the season progresses, but right now I'd be hesitant to start him fantasy wise.

I also think the Rams offense is getting too much love. I don't think Goff was that bad and I don't see Stafford as being a huge upgrade. They have a dozen games on their schedule against teams that should have teams in the top third to top half of the league. Maybe things will play out differently than I think, but I personally don't see the Rams going back to the Greatest Show of Turf days from either the Warner era or the modern version from the 2018 season.

 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
I'm hopeful for a Parker bounceback, but I just I don't see it with Tua. 

The Bengals with a healthy Burrow seem to be overlooked right now.

Carolina had 3 top 25 WRs last year.  I'm not sure if Darnold is better than Teddy, but a healthy CMC on that team makes them very dangerous.
If anything, I think Bengals are overrated. All three WRs were basically drafted as starters or close to it. No way all of them pan out.

Meanwhile, I'm going to go on record and say there is zero chance Sam Darnold lays waste to NFL defenses a la Mahomes or Lamar. 

 

Teezee

Footballguy
If you believe in the coach/system, then the Arizona Cardinals can be that team
This is the key. I'm not a believer in Kingsbury. The element of surprise is gone. I think the NFL figured out his basic college spread offense in the latter part of last season. When watching this offense last year, I kept shaking my head about how easily they telegraphed what they wanted to do. If he can evolve and adjust to the NFL's adjustments to him, he has a chance. I'm just a little skeptical. The OL continues to be a worrying aspect to me as well. I still love Kyler Murray's potential, but he might not jump to the next level in the NFL if a change in scheme isn't implemented for him. 

 

matuski

Footballguy
This is the key. I'm not a believer in Kingsbury. The element of surprise is gone. I think the NFL figured out his basic college spread offense in the latter part of last season. When watching this offense last year, I kept shaking my head about how easily they telegraphed what they wanted to do. If he can evolve and adjust to the NFL's adjustments to him, he has a chance. I'm just a little skeptical. The OL continues to be a worrying aspect to me as well. I still love Kyler Murray's potential, but he might not jump to the next level in the NFL if a change in scheme isn't implemented for him. 


Murray's potential will always be limited by the next hit.

 

Wise Old Owl

Footballguy
This is the key. I'm not a believer in Kingsbury. The element of surprise is gone. I think the NFL figured out his basic college spread offense in the latter part of last season. When watching this offense last year, I kept shaking my head about how easily they telegraphed what they wanted to do. If he can evolve and adjust to the NFL's adjustments to him, he has a chance. I'm just a little skeptical. The OL continues to be a worrying aspect to me as well. I still love Kyler Murray's potential, but he might not jump to the next level in the NFL if a change in scheme isn't implemented for him. 
I'm of the opinion that the scheme was terrible all of last year and Murray was able to produce despite it until he got injured. After he hurt his shoulder in week 8, his rush yards per game dropped from 68 in the first half to 34 in the 2nd half. He just didn't look the same. 

 

travdogg

Footballguy
I think Dallas could be a perfect storm of elite offense, poor defense, and big plays on both sides, to be a really great offense to have heavy investment in.

I could see Dak as QB1, Zeke as a top-5 RB, Lamb and Cooper as top-15 WR's with top-5 upside, Gallup as a top-25 WR, and either Jarwin or Schultz being a streamable TE.

ETA: We saw it happen for the 1st month of last season, what if that pace isn't unsustainable?

 
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Zow

Footballguy
I actually like Cinci as this team. Burrow will be a mid-range QB1; Mixon a low-end RB1; and all three WRs (Boyd, Chase, and Higgins) could be startable and beat their ADP. 

 

Zow

Footballguy
I think Dallas could be a perfect storm of elite offense, poor defense, and big plays on both sides, to be a really great offense to have heavy investment in.

I could see Dak as QB1, Zeke as a top-5 RB, Lamb and Cooper as top-15 WR's with top-5 upside, Gallup as a top-25 WR, and either Jarwin or Schultz being a streamable TE.

ETA: We saw it happen for the 1st month of last season, what if that pace isn't unsustainable?
Yeah I could see this too. Similar analysis to the Bengals. 

 

Zow

Footballguy
If anything, I think Bengals are overrated. All three WRs were basically drafted as starters or close to it. No way all of them pan out.

Meanwhile, I'm going to go on record and say there is zero chance Sam Darnold lays waste to NFL defenses a la Mahomes or Lamar. 
Trying to think of prior examples of trio-WRs that exceeded their ADP due to the offense. Obvious examples that could likely be deemed anomalies are the '98 Vikings (Moss, Carter, Reed), '99 Rams (Bruce, Holt, speedy guy with a hyphen in his name), etc.

Did the TB WRs all exceed their ADP last year? That would probably be the most recent example - and, of course, they half a HOF QB throwing to them. 

I don't think Cinci is overrated nonetheless. If anything, my two worries are the o-line and Chase. 

 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
Trying to think of prior examples of trio-WRs that exceeded their ADP due to the offense. Obvious examples that could likely be deemed anomalies are the '98 Vikings (Moss, Carter, Reed), '99 Rams (Bruce, Holt, speedy guy with a hyphen in his name), etc.

Did the TB WRs all exceed their ADP last year? That would probably be the most recent example - and, of course, they half a HOF QB throwing to them. 

I don't think Cinci is overrated nonetheless. If anything, my two worries are the o-line and Chase. 
Well, AB wasn't on a roster Week 1, so he didn't have an ADP. Without bothering to look it up, Godwin was injured, so probably not. Evans probably came in close?

Fantasy Footballers podcast had a stat a couple weeks ago that, when three WRs are drafted highly it's rare that even two of them return good value. All three almost never happens.

 

DocHolliday

Footballguy
A potential surprise team that could create a few players above their ADP is Denver.   The offense should be effective under Teddy and be able to move the ball.   Gordon and Williams are in a committee at least for now but Williams could grab control of the backfield during the season.   Jeudy, Sutton, and Fant should be targeted often since teams in the AFC W are going to score points.  

 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
A potential surprise team that could create a few players above their ADP is Denver.   The offense should be effective under Teddy and be able to move the ball.   Gordon and Williams are in a committee at least for now but Williams could grab control of the backfield during the season.   Jeudy, Sutton, and Fant should be targeted often since teams in the AFC W are going to score points.  
See, I view teams like Denver as the opposite of what I was getting at with this thread. There is zero chance that Teddy busts out, which probably means we overdrafted the Denver weapons. I doubt he can play well enough to sustain all of them.

I view Cinci the same way, but there is at least the outside possibility that Burrow is fully recovered and plays like he did at LSU.

Now that I think of it, another candidate is the Chargers. Herbert elevates from low-end QB1 to high-end, Allen and Ekeler remain elite, and some of the complementary pieces (Williams? Parham?) benefit from all the increased scoring.

The other criterion I should have mentioned is that it seems so obvious in retrospect. Of course Mahomes turned out to be a generational prospect. Of course Lamar redefined our notion of a running QB. That's why I could see it being the Rams. If they bust out, we'll all be saying of course the combo of an offensive genius and a true franchise QB was going to produce fireworks.

 

LawFitz

Footballguy
See, I view teams like Denver as the opposite of what I was getting at with this thread. There is zero chance that Teddy busts out, which probably means we overdrafted the Denver weapons. I doubt he can play well enough to sustain all of them.

I view Cinci the same way, but there is at least the outside possibility that Burrow is fully recovered and plays like he did at LSU.

Now that I think of it, another candidate is the Chargers. Herbert elevates from low-end QB1 to high-end, Allen and Ekeler remain elite, and some of the complementary pieces (Williams? Parham?) benefit from all the increased scoring.

The other criterion I should have mentioned is that it seems so obvious in retrospect. Of course Mahomes turned out to be a generational prospect. Of course Lamar redefined our notion of a running QB. That's why I could see it being the Rams. If they bust out, we'll all be saying of course the combo of an offensive genius and a true franchise QB was going to produce fireworks.


Here's my list: https://forums.footballguys.com/topic/799691-2021-undervalued-offenses/

It's based on the premise that breakout offenses must have the holy triumverate of Coach/QB/OL performing at good to elite levels. These five teams are the ones I've identified this preseason as potentially hitting big on all three categories.

 

Tanner9919

Footballguy
Jags, Jets, Broncos, Dolphins, Cowboys ( after a slow start they'll heat up),  Niners.

T. Lawrence is going to light it up this season, good WRs, great RB, good coaching system. Bad defense will make them pass like crazy. Meyer's offense will do the rest.

Wilson looks the part, and they have a talented roster, a ra-ra head coach who'll mimic the Niners offense. Please note, this is not Adam Gase's offense. Quality WRs, E. Moore will produce, along with M. Carter by the middle of the season if not sooner. They're going to surprise this season. 8-9 is possible. there IS hope, Jets fans!

J. Williams will be a household name by week 3. Capt check-down will still check it down , but to an elite-level pass catching RB in Williams. he'll also provide elite level blocking for Teddy B. top notch WRs and a high level defense. 

Tua looks to have turned the corner, he looks like a new QB this preseason. Waddle is going to help solidify the passing game. reports are he was un-coverable in training camp. Gaskin takes a step up to be a RB1, and the Dolphins defense becomes a must start unit. high fantasy value is in that defense. `

Cowboys will start slow IMO probably a blowout loss tonight. but they'll turn it around next 10 days. too many talented players on this roster to fail. Dak is going to be a top 5 QB by the end of the season. possibly 2 , if not 3, 1000 yard WRs. and Zeke of course.

Niners - but not like you think. IMO it's doubtful that Lance is anything more than a prop or a benchwarmer ala Mohomes his 1st NFL season. he's going to be T. Hill Saints gadget type guy. This is Jimmy G's offense unless/until he gets hurt. but Aiyuk is going to feast this year. Deebo will get his, Kittle is going to be a beast again as always until he gets hurt. the running game is in good hands and the defense is a big time fantasy relevant unit. Please check Brett Kollmann youtube fantasy football guy. his story on Aiyuk is eye popping.basically ,Aiyuk has a wingspan that just a skosh smaller than Megatron, like 1/4 inch or so. amazing catch radius.dude's gonna pop-off this season which will open things up for the entire Niners offense. 

 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
Interesting to re-read this thread five weeks in. Kudos to those who said Arizona, Tampa and the Chargers, and raspberries to @Tanner9919 for thinking Jax would be elite because of .. wait for it .. their "good coaching system".  :lmao:  (Just kidding, GB. But I literally LOLd when I saw that.) 

Unfortunately, Arizona has been kind of frustrating for fantasy. Kyler and Hopkins are the only truly reliable starters so far, and even D-Hop has underperformed. The other three WRs have alternated fantasy value to the point where it's really hard to start any of them with confidence, although Moore may emerge by the end of the season. 

Tampa, meanwhile, has been a fantasy gold mine. Brady has a ridiculous (but probably unsustainable?) TD rate, the three WRs have all produced (Evans/Brown = higher ceilings, Godwin = rock-solid floor), Fournette has become a weekly starter and Gronk looked like he had turned the clock back to 2012 (before he got hurt).

With the Chargers, Herbert and Ekeler have level-jumped relative to where they were drafted and Williams has made the leap. (Allen has been a slight disappointment, but I'm pretty confident that by the end of the year his numbers will still be good. Could be a little like Roddy White during Julio's first bust-out season; overshadowed but still a major fantasy contributor.)

Honorable mention to the Rams. Kupp has level-jumped, Henderson has outperformed his draft value, Stafford has been solid but not spectacular and Woods may have finally turned things around. If only we could combine Jefferson and DJax into one player; DeVan JefferJack would totally be a startable fantasy asset.

 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
Don't forget the Bills. They are swimming in fantasy goodness right now.
Yes, good point. Allen has sustained his level of play from last year (which is in itself kind of a surprise, since many had him pegged for regression). Diggs has been slightly disappointing, but again, I'm not too worried. Moss had a slow start but I could see him emerging as a reliable starter over the next 12 weeks. But the biggest surprises have been Sanders and Knox. Both could end up being WW pickups of the year if they keep this up.

 
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Craig_MiamiFL

Footballguy
Obviously Tampa.

All 3 WR around top 20 in PPG at the position, Gronk #1, Brady #1 in our qb scoring and Lombardi Lenny is coming on strong.

 
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zamboni

Footballguy
Honorable mention to the Rams. Kupp has level-jumped, Henderson has outperformed his draft value, Stafford has been solid but not spectacular and Woods may have finally turned things around. If only we could combine Jefferson and DJax into one player; DeVan JefferJack would totally be a startable fantasy asset.
Love that - would be a great fantasy team name.

 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
Honorable mention to the Rams. Kupp has level-jumped, Henderson has outperformed his draft value, Stafford has been solid but not spectacular and Woods may have finally turned things around. If only we could combine Jefferson and DJax into one player; DeVan JefferJack would totally be a startable fantasy asset.
Love that - would be a great fantasy team name.
Just checked: DeVan JefferJack has 84.7 PPR fantasy points this season, which would rank him (them?) as the WR13, ahead of Lockett, Godwin, Cooper, D-Hop and Keenan Allen.

We need to make this happen! Along with Chrisdale Moork (or maybe Chrisdale J. Moorkeen?) and Teeler Higginboyd

 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
Jags, Jets, Broncos, Dolphins, Cowboys ( after a slow start they'll heat up),  Niners.

T. Lawrence is going to light it up this season, good WRs, great RB, good coaching system. Bad defense will make them pass like crazy. Meyer's offense will do the rest.

Wilson looks the part, and they have a talented roster, a ra-ra head coach who'll mimic the Niners offense. Please note, this is not Adam Gase's offense. Quality WRs, E. Moore will produce, along with M. Carter by the middle of the season if not sooner. They're going to surprise this season. 8-9 is possible. there IS hope, Jets fans!

J. Williams will be a household name by week 3. Capt check-down will still check it down , but to an elite-level pass catching RB in Williams. he'll also provide elite level blocking for Teddy B. top notch WRs and a high level defense. 

Tua looks to have turned the corner, he looks like a new QB this preseason. Waddle is going to help solidify the passing game. reports are he was un-coverable in training camp. Gaskin takes a step up to be a RB1, and the Dolphins defense becomes a must start unit. high fantasy value is in that defense. `

Cowboys will start slow IMO probably a blowout loss tonight. but they'll turn it around next 10 days. too many talented players on this roster to fail. Dak is going to be a top 5 QB by the end of the season. possibly 2 , if not 3, 1000 yard WRs. and Zeke of course.

Niners - but not like you think. IMO it's doubtful that Lance is anything more than a prop or a benchwarmer ala Mohomes his 1st NFL season. he's going to be T. Hill Saints gadget type guy. This is Jimmy G's offense unless/until he gets hurt. but Aiyuk is going to feast this year. Deebo will get his, Kittle is going to be a beast again as always until he gets hurt. the running game is in good hands and the defense is a big time fantasy relevant unit. Please check Brett Kollmann youtube fantasy football guy. his story on Aiyuk is eye popping.basically ,Aiyuk has a wingspan that just a skosh smaller than Megatron, like 1/4 inch or so. amazing catch radius.dude's gonna pop-off this season which will open things up for the entire Niners offense. 


This was an interesting read.

 

wlwiles

Footballguy
Just checked: DeVan JefferJack has 84.7 PPR fantasy points this season, which would rank him (them?) as the WR13, ahead of Lockett, Godwin, Cooper, D-Hop and Keenan Allen.

We need to make this happen! Along with Chrisdale Moork (or maybe Chrisdale J. Moorkeen?) and Teeler Higginboyd
The guy in the office next to me came over to make sure I was ok after I loudly choked/laughed at Teeler Higginboyd.....lol well done there

 

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