AnonymousBob
Footballguy
I think some of you are missing the point of the OP...unless some here really think neckbeard, Edwards, and a few others are top five options with monstrous upside.
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Who Will Have Big Breakouts in '09? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter kremenull
- Start date
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
DeSean really crashed in the second half of last year once McNabb had other options to throw to. Why do you expect DeSean to get a full season of love if Curtis and company aren't hurt to start the year?
-baller
Footballguy
this has probably been beat to death, so not to nitpick, but that's a pretty strong statement about new england rotating more than any team in the league.any evidence for this?like I mentioned in another post, out of 32 teams in the league, you might get about 16 rb's who manage to log roughly 15x15 carries in a season.if that's the median, how do you figure new england and maroney on the lowest end of that spectrum?what do you project the new england running backs at in terms of carries this year?inzanitee said:
FUBAR
Footballguy
Not to mention, Maclin will get involved. I don't see DeSean as more than a Wr3.
Mesmashu
Footballguy
Brad Cottam TE KC
6'7"
250-270lbs (ESPN has him at 270)
4.63 40
Played in all 16 games (as a rookie) last year but was mainly used in 2TE sets. Only caught 7 passes, but that's because TonyG was in the house. Now that Tony's gone he'll be the primary TE target and at 6'7" he should see his fair share of Red Zone targets. Probably won't make the spectacular catches like Gonzales did but he has decent hands. You can get him for basically nothing and I think he'll put up numbers in the 10-15 range with the potential for more if he becomes a primary Red Zone target.
Downside is he doesn't have a history of being a stud... 4 year starter at Tennessee with a surprisingly low number of receptions although he did miss most of his senior year due to injury.
Worth a roster spot in deep leagues IMO. Better to get him now before preseason starts. Not much downside if he flops (which I admit is very possible.)
I don't think 30-40 rec and 450-550 yards is out of the question for the starting TE in KC. The key will be the redzone looks and I'm guessing 3-5 TD's seems pretty reasonable. Matt Cassels 18-20TD's have to go somewhere right? Why not a 6'7" TE?
6'7"
250-270lbs (ESPN has him at 270)
4.63 40
Played in all 16 games (as a rookie) last year but was mainly used in 2TE sets. Only caught 7 passes, but that's because TonyG was in the house. Now that Tony's gone he'll be the primary TE target and at 6'7" he should see his fair share of Red Zone targets. Probably won't make the spectacular catches like Gonzales did but he has decent hands. You can get him for basically nothing and I think he'll put up numbers in the 10-15 range with the potential for more if he becomes a primary Red Zone target.
Downside is he doesn't have a history of being a stud... 4 year starter at Tennessee with a surprisingly low number of receptions although he did miss most of his senior year due to injury.
Worth a roster spot in deep leagues IMO. Better to get him now before preseason starts. Not much downside if he flops (which I admit is very possible.)
I don't think 30-40 rec and 450-550 yards is out of the question for the starting TE in KC. The key will be the redzone looks and I'm guessing 3-5 TD's seems pretty reasonable. Matt Cassels 18-20TD's have to go somewhere right? Why not a 6'7" TE?
David Yudkin
Footballguy
In the Maroney era (3 years), NE had a back with 15 carries in a game 26 times in 48 regular season games. That was broken down to:Maroney 11 timesMorris 6 timesDillon 5 timesJordan 2 timesBJGE 2 timesI'm not sure how that compares to other teams . . .
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
This is a nice value pick but again not what the OP was looking for...maybe I just misread or misunderstood what the point of this thread was but I didn't think it was uncovering late round gems who might become borderline starters.
kremenull
Footballguy
No, I really don't care too much about historical data when it comes to superb talents. I believe the Cards ability to pass the ball should have been beneficial to their running game all along, it's just that now they have a true stud in Wells and not an over-the-hill Edge nor a pedestrian Hightower. So I truly believe its Lights Out! I guess if Moreno went to AZ everyone would be gung-ho about him and acting like he was/is the best thing since sliced bread. IMO, Wells is better than Moreno, always have believed that and I don't see anything that has happened to change the ranking. Just 'cause he (Moreno) got drafted earlier and to a traditional running power?
kremenull
Footballguy
Uhhhh.....this is not a deep-sleeper thread, the post was started with STUDS in mind.......hence the Big Breakout in the title and the elite numbers criteria in the original post
Mesmashu
Footballguy
Oh I guess coming from nowhere to top 15 isn't a big enough breakout to qualify. Sorry. You want guys that everyone already knows about.
Ronnie Brown? Dwayne Bowe? Greg Olson? These guys are already studs... why do we need a thread for them?
Who here doesn't already know that Brown is in for a big year? Or that Olson got a huge upgrade when Cutler came to town?
maybe we could list all the rookies? we're bound to hit on one of them right?
Ronnie Brown? Dwayne Bowe? Greg Olson? These guys are already studs... why do we need a thread for them?
Who here doesn't already know that Brown is in for a big year? Or that Olson got a huge upgrade when Cutler came to town?
maybe we could list all the rookies? we're bound to hit on one of them right?
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kremenull
Footballguy
I want to refer back to this thread at season's end and see which players made it and which missed. It's easy to casually throw out a bunch of names of players who you believe will breakout to some degree, but put it in writing well ahead of the games....and training camps....I don't recall anyone mentioning Rogers, Phillips, or Jennings last year as making a leap into the elite. How many are saying Ronnie Brown this year will be Top 5?
kremenull
Footballguy
Yeah, guys who've yet to do it.....BreakoutAlthough LT is an interesting player.....I just have a feeling that he might be really slipping, Shaun Alexanderish, but maybe not quite so steep of a decline.....Kind of like Edge, Emmitt their last few decent seasons.....
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
What's your issue? You didn't have to come into this thread - I'm really sick of people going into threads to complain about them. I know it's the off season so we don't get 100 new threads a day but c'mon. Don't be a turd. First, Bowe, Ronnie, and Olsen are not studs. Not unless you have an extremely loose sense of the word.
Value picks are vital to any team's championship run. Feel free to start another thread about late round picks that will become serviceable players.
How often do no-names truly explode from nowhere to become super studs?
Taking a player that is currently ranked in the teens but will explode into the top five this year is a tremendous boon to any owner. That's all we're trying to determine.
I don't have any names that pop to mind so I won't toss a name out there just to throw one out there but this is a thread that I think has some promise.
I do have a question for Ronnie Brown backers - WHY will his situation change? Will they run Ricky less? Will Brown start racking up touchdowns? I'm not doubting the kid's talent but EVERYBODY has talent if you're a starter in the NFL. Imo situation plays a much, much bigger factor than talent levels. And I don't see what's so mind blowing about his situation. It's clearly not a bad spot to be in but I don't see anything special.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Where do you think Maroney could finish? I fall into the Yudkin camp on this kid but this is a very interesting pick.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Does anybody know what's going on with McGahee? Is he going to be cut/traded?
EBF
Footballguy
Ronnie will be 2 years removed from his knee surgery. He should be back to 100%. I think that's why people might see some sneaky upside there. Remember, he was the hottest back in the game prior to ripping up his knee.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
I didn't realize he finished the year relatively strong. I had to look it up...with the improvements this could be a sneaky call.
inzanitee
Footballguy
I'm actually on board with Maroney this year - don't think he'll be top 5 so he won't qualify for this thread per se, but I think top 15 is possible. All he needs to do is stay healthy...(!).
inzanitee
Footballguy
McGahee isn't going anywhere this year.
inzanitee
Footballguy
I love Maclin long term, but Jackson is going to be good this year. He put up solid #s in the playoffs so it's not like he was forgotten. With a year under his belt I think Jackson is a solid #2 WR at worst. Don't know about 1300 yds/10 TDs, but I think 1100 yds and 7 TDs will be easily attainable. The guy is GOOD.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I don't see it, but to each his own . . .Even if he were to stay healthy somehow, he doesn't play on passing downs and gets almost no receptions. He also gets taken out on short yardage/goal line plays many times, and rarely gets much more than 15 carries a game.Playing that out over a full season, if you give him 15 carries a game (which he hasn't averaged at any point to date) and 15 games played, that's 225 carries. At a 4.0 ypc, that's 900 rushing yards, limited receiving yards, and a handful of TD.
inzanitee
Footballguy
Good points, though his career average is 4.3, which isn't bad. Also, his first season splitting time with Dillon he caught 20+ passes, so it's not like he can't catch, just that the don't really involve him much. I don't know about this year, I just think the guy has talent and will get his chance to shine at some point in the next year or two.
This is an outstanding post and you have no idea why.We have all seen studies based on hitters in the Rockies home park, as well as passing games in December. I have never seen a study based on hos QBs play at altitude (obviously they can throw further) and how this impacts on fantasy stats.I wouldn't be all that surprised if Cutler struggled to reach the same production that he's enjoyed in Denver. We all know the effects of climate in baseball - why is it such a stretch to think they could be present to some degree in football?Using that flawed theory, Jay Cutler will turn into Rex Grossman.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
If this were true, wouldn't the Broncos have consistently been at or near the top of the league in passing for years?I don't think Cutler will do as well based on offensive philosophy and lesser talent among the CHI receivers . . . but I don't see the altitude playing into it at all.This is an outstanding post and you have no idea why.We have all seen studies based on hitters in the Rockies home park, as well as passing games in December. I have never seen a study based on hos QBs play at altitude (obviously they can throw further) and how this impacts on fantasy stats.I wouldn't be all that surprised if Cutler struggled to reach the same production that he's enjoyed in Denver. We all know the effects of climate in baseball - why is it such a stretch to think they could be present to some degree in football?Using that flawed theory, Jay Cutler will turn into Rex Grossman.
Banger
Footballguy
against some of the worst teams in the league, with a different coaching staff, QB and offense that force fed him the ball through the air (had more catches in those 7 games than he did all last year) and Ricky wasn't there...it's totally an apples and oranges comparison...ETA...LOL, didn't see gianmarco's response...
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dmac37
Footballguy
Here are the reasons I like R Brown for 2009+:He and Ricky look to be going in two different directions from last year. Ricky is on the wrong side of 30 and the split was leaning in favor of Ronnie as the year went on.
Ronnie is the better RB than Ricky at this stage, combine that with the fact that he will be fully recovered from the knee injury should = a higher % of touches for Ronnie.
Year 2 of the Parcells system has been known to show improvement from year 1, this should mean longer drives and more TD opportunities = more FF value. Also the o line should be improved with a year more experience and playing together.
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Hey RichardHe is merely asking for guys you think are ranked say 10-20 now that will be ranked 1-4 next year.Would you draft Brown, Bowe or Olsen as #1 at their position, yea i know not even really close.But next year those guys could be mentioned with ADP, Fitz, and WhittenMesmashu said:
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
To jump up to the top five last year, Ronnie Brown would have needed 400 more rushing yards. Or 25 more yards per game. So he'll need an additional 5-6 carries per game to be in the mix for this year's top five AND he'll have to repeat his 10 touchdowns.
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gonzobill5
Footballguy
I think 90 catches is a stretch for any Eagles receiver playing with McNabb (TO only reached 77 in 2004 - albeit in only 14 games) but certainly not impossible. When the passing offense is really clicking, they are spreading the ball around a ton. They also don't get blown out a lot, and when they do, they don't seem to rack up garbage time stats like other teams. I don't think that Curtis or Maclin are a threat to his playing time - but I suspect that in 2009 he will be a boom or bust type based on when he manages to come up with the deep passes and the Eagles tendency to spread the ball around. I also don't think DeSean "crashed" in the second half of the year. He dropped two potential TDs in Washington and the offense didn't have to do much in Dallas in week 17. Take a look at his playoff stats if you want a better idea. I would also keep in mind how much he was incorporated into the offense (end arounds and the occasional wildcat) in such a short time - you'd have to think Andy Reid has an even bigger role planned for him in 2009.
Mesmashu
Footballguy
Thanks, I think I get it. I was off base putting a guy I think is going to come out of nowhere and be in the top 15 this year... and maybe next year we could be looking at top 5. Sorry for posting what I thought was a Big Breakout. Anyone else want to take a shot at me for putting this guy in the wrong thread?
gonzobill5
Footballguy
I'm in agreement with all but the first point - I don't see a dropoff in Ricky's carries down the stretch nor do I see an increase in Ronnie's. (i'm assuming you meant "more in favor of Ronnie...")The thing I really like about both Ronnie and Ricky is their receptions, about 30 a piece. Both had a solid YPC despite the fact that he didn't have a bunch of long runs.dmac37 said:
Only thing that concerns me about Brown is the huge discrepancy between the first NE game and the second.
I need to spend some time and look at their first half/second half splits and when they were in the lead vs. when they were behind. I think Miami had a relatively easy schedule down the stretch and I would tend to believe that Ronnie would get a larger share of the carries and the receptions if they had a tougher road in 09.
All in all, I think he's an excellent gamble at his ADP and could very likely be a top 5 rb again.
Other guys I like to be potential top 5:
Gore (not sure he qualifies as a surprise)
Jacobs
Addai (i can't forget his 4 TD performance against the Eagles, but maybe I should try to)
Rice
What about LJ? New coach, improvements on OL, and the talent is there. I'm not banking on it by any means, but I think if it happened we'll all be saying we should have seen it coming.
doowain
Footballguy
Kevin Smith, RB, DET
Was in and out as the starter for the Lions through the first part of the year in 2008. He was given the full reigns at RB somewhere around midseason (although, he was still pulled during some third downs for Rudi Johnson). He finished with 238 carries for 976 yards (4.1 ypc) and 8 TDs. For PPR leagues, he also added 39 catches for 286 yards. Over the final 8 games he had 168 / 671 / 4 TD. It's hard not to project what he could do with full time duty over the course of a full season. He showed in college that he can be a workhorse RB as he logged 450 carries his senior year (2567 yards/29 TDs). EBF questioned his pedigree in another thread. I can only assume that he's referring to the fact that Kevin Smith played for UCF (whom Brandon Marshall and Daunte Culpepper both played for) and that UCF is in Conference USA. So, if that's the case, he must also question the pedigree of DeAngelo Williams (Memphis), Chris Johnson (East Carolina), and Matt Forte (Tulane). The latter two obviously played at the same time and Kevin Smith outperformed both of them.
Kevin Smith - 2007
2567 yards / 29 TDs -- 5.7 ypc
Matt Forte - 2007
2127 yards / 23 TDs -- 5.9 ypc
Chris Johnson - 2007
1423 yards / 17 TDs -- 6.0 ypc
There are two very good things going for Smith in the equation for him to succeed. The first is that he has Calvin Johnson on his team. You can pretty much forget 8 in the box when you have CJ2 lined up out wide (BJohnson and Curry are respectable complementary WRs as well). The second is that they didn't draft any competition. They signed Maurice Morris who is a perfect complement to Smith. He can spell him on a series and can handle 3rd down work, but will not cut into his carries too much. Smith is a 3-down back IMO and we all know that is a dying (and FF valuable) breed. Also important to me is his desire to be great. Every time I see him run (even as the Lions are busy going 0-16), I'm impressed. He takes every handoff like it's the final drive to win the Super Bowl. I've seen interviews where he throws back to the greats of the game and expresses how he wants to one day be mentioned among those guys. I know he's not on ADP's level as far as physical talent, but give me a team full of those guys who will do everything they can to be great.
Smith's price tag is already relatively high. I've seen him go in the 3rd round in nearly every startup this year. I think he has the talent and the opportunity to finish in the Top 12 (he was RB17 last year). I think he'll be a borderline RB1 at the very least and could be a 2nd round pick in all startups next year.
Take a look:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3N1z1-ASRiE
1:42
3:17
7:13
Was in and out as the starter for the Lions through the first part of the year in 2008. He was given the full reigns at RB somewhere around midseason (although, he was still pulled during some third downs for Rudi Johnson). He finished with 238 carries for 976 yards (4.1 ypc) and 8 TDs. For PPR leagues, he also added 39 catches for 286 yards. Over the final 8 games he had 168 / 671 / 4 TD. It's hard not to project what he could do with full time duty over the course of a full season. He showed in college that he can be a workhorse RB as he logged 450 carries his senior year (2567 yards/29 TDs). EBF questioned his pedigree in another thread. I can only assume that he's referring to the fact that Kevin Smith played for UCF (whom Brandon Marshall and Daunte Culpepper both played for) and that UCF is in Conference USA. So, if that's the case, he must also question the pedigree of DeAngelo Williams (Memphis), Chris Johnson (East Carolina), and Matt Forte (Tulane). The latter two obviously played at the same time and Kevin Smith outperformed both of them.
Kevin Smith - 2007
2567 yards / 29 TDs -- 5.7 ypc
Matt Forte - 2007
2127 yards / 23 TDs -- 5.9 ypc
Chris Johnson - 2007
1423 yards / 17 TDs -- 6.0 ypc
There are two very good things going for Smith in the equation for him to succeed. The first is that he has Calvin Johnson on his team. You can pretty much forget 8 in the box when you have CJ2 lined up out wide (BJohnson and Curry are respectable complementary WRs as well). The second is that they didn't draft any competition. They signed Maurice Morris who is a perfect complement to Smith. He can spell him on a series and can handle 3rd down work, but will not cut into his carries too much. Smith is a 3-down back IMO and we all know that is a dying (and FF valuable) breed. Also important to me is his desire to be great. Every time I see him run (even as the Lions are busy going 0-16), I'm impressed. He takes every handoff like it's the final drive to win the Super Bowl. I've seen interviews where he throws back to the greats of the game and expresses how he wants to one day be mentioned among those guys. I know he's not on ADP's level as far as physical talent, but give me a team full of those guys who will do everything they can to be great.
Smith's price tag is already relatively high. I've seen him go in the 3rd round in nearly every startup this year. I think he has the talent and the opportunity to finish in the Top 12 (he was RB17 last year). I think he'll be a borderline RB1 at the very least and could be a 2nd round pick in all startups next year.
Take a look:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3N1z1-ASRiE
1:42
3:17
7:13
jwinston2
Footballguy
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/8841AnonymousBob said:
Last 4 games
355 yds rushing, 3 tds, 11 rec. 65 yds, 2 fumbles
if he repeats last 4 game average during a 16 game fantasy season
1420 yrds, 12 tds, 44 rec. 260 yds, 8 fumbles?
I would take those numbers.
gonzobill5
Footballguy
Thanks for posting - I came away impressed not only with Smith's quickness but also Detroit's run blocking which I just assumed was awful. On several of the short TD runs there were blockers 5 yards into the end zone.
A few names off the top of my head:
Felix Jones - If Barber goes down, and even if he doesn't, Jones is just a big play waiting to happen.
Leon Washington - His deal will get done, Thomas Jones won't be sticking around, and Washington will be the cog that makes the Jets offense run.
Aaron Rodgers - Will vault himself into the upper echelon of QBs.
Steve Smith (NYG) - Eli's safety valve will see a more prominent role in the offense.
Ray Rice - A sneaky guy I'm keeping my eye on in fantasy football, Rice could get the majority of the carries if McClain moves full time to FB and McGahee stays as injury prone as he is. Sure, Baltimore is RBBC to the max, but Rice played well down the stretch in '08, so I have faith.
Anthony Gonzalez - No more Marvin, Peyton Manning as his QB... need I say more?
Mike Walker - It was a pity he went down to injury last season, but he's another player who could benefit from that extra year's experience and really come on strong in '09 if Holt can occupy double coverage on the other side.
Felix Jones - If Barber goes down, and even if he doesn't, Jones is just a big play waiting to happen.
Leon Washington - His deal will get done, Thomas Jones won't be sticking around, and Washington will be the cog that makes the Jets offense run.
Aaron Rodgers - Will vault himself into the upper echelon of QBs.
Steve Smith (NYG) - Eli's safety valve will see a more prominent role in the offense.
Ray Rice - A sneaky guy I'm keeping my eye on in fantasy football, Rice could get the majority of the carries if McClain moves full time to FB and McGahee stays as injury prone as he is. Sure, Baltimore is RBBC to the max, but Rice played well down the stretch in '08, so I have faith.
Anthony Gonzalez - No more Marvin, Peyton Manning as his QB... need I say more?
Mike Walker - It was a pity he went down to injury last season, but he's another player who could benefit from that extra year's experience and really come on strong in '09 if Holt can occupy double coverage on the other side.
identikit
Footballguy
Nice list, though I consider Rodgers already vaulted...
I think the drafting of Maclin actaully had more to do with how far he fell than anything.....and what picking up Maclin tells me is that I see Philly going more to the NE/Tom Brady offense and passing it even more than they do....which is difficult to begin with.....with DJ, Maclin, and Curtis you have some weapons to run that spead offense and then you throw Westbrook in the mix and they could be very, very, explosive......I also believe that they will try to keep Westy healthy by throwing more, Buck is gone, etc.....I will be targeting McNabb this year
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Gonzalez should do better than he has, but he's already played 10 games without Harrison. In those games, he's averaged 3.5 receptions, 50.7 yards, and 0.3 TD. I realize he should improve as he has more experience, but that's what he's done to date in the scenario you laid out.
3rd year WR isnt he? Hes got that goin for him.
switz
Footballguy
Guys who have been high round picks, in the league for a few years, and barely rush for 1,000 yards once in their career rarely jump into the upper echelon. Sure Ronnie is a decent back, but he will still be in a time share, and quite frankly, he's just not durable enough.
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EBF
Footballguy
When I talk about pedigree, I'm generally talking about draft position. Smith was a record setting RB in college and he still fell to the third round. That doesn't mean he can't be successful, but he wasn't billed as an elite prospect entering the NFL. Williams, Culpepper, and Johnson were first round picks. Forte was a second round pick, and I do question his pedigree.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
What lower level RBs will get an opportunity this year?
Fred Jackson - Will start a few games in Buffalo. At times looked like a better back than Lynch last year. Will stay integrated in an improving pass game.
Jamaal Charles - Avg'ed 5.3 YPC and 10.1 YPR last year. Larry Johnson could leave town or get hurt.
Ahmad Bradshaw - Stud when Jacobs inevitably gets hurt? Ward-like numbers until then?
Leonard Weaver - What happens if Westbrook gets hurt before McCoy learns to block for the passing game?
TJ Duckett/Justin Forsett - Julius Jones is terrible right?
Fred Jackson - Will start a few games in Buffalo. At times looked like a better back than Lynch last year. Will stay integrated in an improving pass game.
Jamaal Charles - Avg'ed 5.3 YPC and 10.1 YPR last year. Larry Johnson could leave town or get hurt.
Ahmad Bradshaw - Stud when Jacobs inevitably gets hurt? Ward-like numbers until then?
Leonard Weaver - What happens if Westbrook gets hurt before McCoy learns to block for the passing game?
TJ Duckett/Justin Forsett - Julius Jones is terrible right?
-baller
Footballguy
yudkin has been posting some very misleading misinformation.I won't go so far as to say he finishes top 5, although it's not impossible, but IF he manages to stay healthy, he could easily be a 1st rounder in 2010 redraft.
I mostly just popped him in here because he were talking about him in another thread at the time, so I'll link it rather than repeat all that.
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...467602&st=0
bottom line is that he was a hot prospect heading into 2007, but injuries have taken him off the radar, and that's what you're gambling on --- health.
'06 he was a solid complementary back to dillon.
at some point, I believe he suffered a shoulder subluxation and had surgery after the '06 season --- I don't think he was 100% early '07 because of this.
he missed a couple games w/some torn rib cartilage, I believe, and was held mostly out of a couple games due to circumstance.
the big thing, though, was very early '08 (maybe second game?) he broke a bone in that same shoulder he had the problem with earlier, and tried to play anyway for a couple weeks until they IR'd him.
you have to decide if these injuries doom him to further injury, or if they're just a couple bad breaks.
as you can see in that thread I linked (maybe page 3...?) he held up pretty well in college, and I could make a long list of backs who have suffered injury but gone on to great fantasy seasons.
IF he stays helthy, he's the lead dog on that rb team, and should get a pretty good chunk of carries for a team that runs more than people think, and runs the ball a lot better than people think, while dominating time of possession.
another thing going for him on that team is they have a killer passing game and they like to mix up the play calling, so you don't get larry johnson ramming into 10 guys on 3 consecutive downs.
that's great for larry's end season carry #'s, but not so great for fantasy production.
for fantasy, it's all about td's, and the pats stand a good chance to score more of those than any team in the league, which translates directly into opps.
at the end of the year, I'd rather have a 225-250 carry guy on the pats, than a 300+ carry back who manages to punch it in 4 times.
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