Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Underperform: Josh Hamilton 20, Craig Kimbrel 29, Ian Desmond 92Outperform: Chris Sale 91, Nelson Cruz 101, Martin Prado 147
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Who will outperform/underperform their ADP? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Doctor Detroit
- Start date
MAC_32
Footballguy
Agreed on Desmond. I don't draft closers in the first 12 rounds, so no opinion on Kimbrel. I don't know what to think about Hamilton. I traded for him in a dyno, but didn't give up much meaningful...but I am not seeing me getting him in any yearly leagues. I'm never comfortable taking him inside the top 40.I don't see how Prado is an outperform given his low ceiling, Sale and Cruz are interesting calls but I can't get past Cruz's injury history (I did just draft him in round 11 though) and I hated the way the Sux used Sale last year - injury waiting to happen. I'm throwing my darts at Gio, Zimmermann, Wainwright, Max, and Matt Moore instead.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Always good value within starting pitching IMO. Moore I love, Wainwright should be elite again and Zimmerman is a guy that should also outperform his ADP. Max and Gio are a little wild and unpredictable for my taste but they have very, very high ceilings.
RaveOriole
Footballguy
Not sure about Nelson Cruz. Since he's linked to the PED thing he might not be getting his juice. I think 101 is right where he should be, maybe a touch lower
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Outperform: Adrian Gonzalez (42). Underperform: Giancarlo Stanton (15).
MAC_32
Footballguy
What about Stanton makes you think under? He played on a bum knee last year and missed time yet still made gains.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Lack of protection in the lineup. Fewer opportunities to drive in runs. His own disdain for the organization. The pitching in the division. Bum knee.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Also under-performing the 15th spot is not that difficult. If he ends up 30-40 it wouldn't surprise me, but he could also end up 5-10.
Eephus
Footballguy
To outperform #15 in 5x5, Stanton will have to lead MLB in HRs by a good amount. The lack of supporting cast in Miami will hurt him in R and RBI. He's no SB threat and won't be a huge assist in AVG unless he cuts down on the strikeouts. He'll be better in OBP leagues.
Hoos First
Footballguy
Mike Minor will outperform
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
Outperform:Shin Soo-Choo (77)M. Moore (135) 
E Aybar (242)
E Aybar (242)
MAC_32
Footballguy
Choo 77? Where did you get that from?Outperform:Shin Soo-Choo (77)M. Moore (135)
East Coast Bias
Footballguy
His NFBC ADP is 76.43.Choo 77? Where did you get that from?Outperform:Shin Soo-Choo (77)M. Moore (135)
RaveOriole
Footballguy
I have a good feeling about Wade Davis getting to start in pitcher friendly KC. God knows where he's ranked.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Kimbrel is $ and my anchor at the position last season, but I mean seriously a closer near the end of round 3 in a 10 team league, mid-3rd round in a 12 teamer is insane. You really need to build your core at that point in the draft, a core middle IF or stud OF. I might not take a SP at that point unless someone like Verlander or Kershaw was around, which is a virtual impossibility. Hitting at scarce positions is alot harder to come by than pitching if you miss the mark. Prado is someone I'm heavily targeting as a utility guy with a lot of upside. If I have the rules on ESPN right, he could be 2B, SS, 3B, and LF eligible this year. Sign me up just based on that alone @ 147. I took a flyer on Encarnacion last season just based on that when it gets thin later in the draft. Not projecting anywhere near a season like that, but he could be a nice piece in the roster.
East Coast Bias
Footballguy
Not sure wher he got that number for Kimbrel. He is going in the 4th in the NFBC which are 15 team leagues.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
East Coast Bias
Footballguy
That data is odd to say the least. Granderson a first rounder. Here's a link to the first 6 rounds of some NFBC slow drafts if anyone wants another data point. My link
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
How is it odd? It's based on 98 drafts.
You can get ADP from CBS, ESPN, wherever. None of them are right, all they are is a combination of drafts from thousands of different people.
East Coast Bias
Footballguy
It's odd that they found 98 drafts in which Granderson consistently went in the first round.How is it odd? It's based on 98 drafts.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
HR heavy leagues? Who knows. Thanks for the link to the pros though, that is always good stuff to look at.It's odd that they found 98 drafts in which Granderson consistently went in the first round.How is it odd? It's based on 98 drafts.
Eephus
Footballguy
The good thing about the NFBC lists is they avoid the autodraft groupthink of early mocks from the other services.HR heavy leagues? Who knows. Thanks for the link to the pros though, that is always good stuff to look at.It's odd that they found 98 drafts in which Granderson consistently went in the first round.How is it odd? It's based on 98 drafts.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Don't know what that stands for but I expect that to change to top 40, maybe 50 over the next few weeks. It's what I am seeing elsewhere.His NFBC ADP is 76.43.Choo 77? Where did you get that from?Outperform:Shin Soo-Choo (77)M. Moore (135)
East Coast Bias
Footballguy
NFBC = National Fantasy Baseball Championship My linkDon't know what that stands for but I expect that to change to top 40, maybe 50 over the next few weeks. It's what I am seeing elsewhere.His NFBC ADP is 76.43.Choo 77? Where did you get that from?Outperform:Shin Soo-Choo (77)M. Moore (135)
Wrigley
Footballguy
Give me one good reason any team pitches to Stanton this year. I'm guessing he spends a ton of time jogging to first, and walking back to the dugout shortly after. He'll be an OBP monster, but he'll fall short in every other category.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Howie Kendrick is hammering the ball this spring. Best shape of his life?
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