Who would you rather have in a dynasty league? (1 Viewer)

[travdogg]

MJD, 23 Jaguars

or

Marshawn Lynch, 22 Bills

Who would you prefer in a dynasty league?

 

[awesomeness]

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showforum=12

 

[big country]

Should be a poll. This is why I love the FBGS....Just today someone offered me MJD for Lynch

 

[Burning Sensation]

I am from Buffalo, and a huge Lynch fan, but i would take MJD in a dynasty.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I am from Buffalo, and a huge Lynch fan, but i would take MJD in a dynasty.

As a guy thats owned Deuce, Kevin Jones and Ronnie Brown, I am a bit concerned about the prospects for Marshawn. Marshawn looks to me to have the same running style as those three, yet he's 15lbs lighter. Ungood. i'd take MJD in a heartbeat over Lynch. Fred Taylor be damned.

 

[travdogg]

I'm still kinda new otherwise I would have set up a poll.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

I'm still kinda new otherwise I would have set up a poll.

 

[travdogg]

Thanks!

 

[Jedimaster21]

Like I have said before, my guess is that Lynch wins this despite being less valuable. MJD is in a much better offense, is more talented, a better receiver, and a much better short yardage runner. This poll proves that his perceived value is much lower than his actual value, and I would tell anyone to go buy him quickly before a 32 year old Fred Taylor falls off and his value explodes.

 

[geoff8695]

From the MJD thread:

He's finished 8th and 13th (in 15 games- 11th if you pro-rate) in his two seasons, despite never getting more than 167 carries. If a guy can finish as a borderline RB1 TWICE on 167 carries, then he's worth owning even if his carries never increase. Heck, even if his carries only go up to 220-250 a year, that's still all he needs in order to be a fantasy S-T-U-D. And if your league rewards return yardage? Fuhgeddaboudit.

I'd take MJD over any of this year's rookies, including McFadden. I'd also take him over Marshawn Lynch.

Really? I'm trying to trade LT2 for an elite young RB and a draft pick in my Keep 4 league. Lynch is one that I'm targeting. Would you really rather build your team around MJD than Lynch?

In 2007 Lynch played in 13 games and had 298 total touches and scored 5 more points than MJD with 176.3 (FBG scoring)Lynch is just as young as MJD and appears to be a bellcow RB who does everything well. Also, Buffalo is a good situation for a fantasy RB. I would characterize Lynch as a 'safe' play.In 2007 MJD had a 'disappointing' performance, played in 15 games and had 207 total touches and scored 171.5 points (FBG scoring)However, unlike Lynch MJD is in a RBBC - IMO that's only because Fred Taylor is a great RB in his own right, and the Jags have no reason not to utilize both of them. If you want to swing for the fences then MJD has 'elite' abilities.

The real question I keep coming back to is whether or not you think MJD will ever approach primary RB status and get another 100-150 touches? If he does then I can't imagine him being anything other than a perennial top 5 fantasy RB...

I found a press conference in which Del Rio discusses the situation at RB and how they will utilize MJD in the future. It sounds promising to me. Check out about 1:30 into it...

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d806ced92

Del Rio says the Jags are taking advantage of the fact that they have two very explosive backs, and acknowledges that Taylor can't continue to maintain his skills indefinitely. He then goes on to say, "...at some point Fred will get less and Maurice will get more..."

It's about as close as you're going to get to a definitive statement that MJD will eventually be taking over as the 'primary' RB.

As for Fred Taylor, clearly history teaches us that 32 year old RBs are far more likely to be destined for the scrap heap rather than fantasy greatness. IMO now is the time to acquire MJD in dynasty leagues. This may be the last opportunity to grab MJD while he is still somewhat affordable.

Barring unforeseen injury, by this time next year MJD will be valued as a top 5 dynasty RB.

 

[JPeso]

Lynch, and it isn't close.

 

[geoff8695]

Lynch, and it isn't close.

Also from the other MJD (will he be a feature back?) thread:

Yes. I drafted both Lynch and MJD in an initial dynasty draft this past offseason. I "reached" for Jones-Drew with the 13th overall selection while there were much "better" choices left on the board. During the course of the season, I had to trade him straight up for Randy Moss in order to gear up for my championship run, and despite seeing drastic and immediate dividends from the trade and becoming clearly the best team in the league, I still regret it. The MJD owner wound up with the first and third rookie picks (which will probably become McFadden and Mendenhall) and he owns a couple of other young RBs, so I've been trying to pry MJD back away, but he won't let him go. I already offered Lynch for MJD straight up, but was turned down.

Here's what it comes down to for me- in the end, talent wins out, and outside of Peterson, I don't think there's a single RB under the age of 27 in the entire NFL who is more talented than Maurice Jones-Drew. That includes Steven Jackson and Frank Gore, as well as all of the incoming rookies. I think both Jackson and Gore are special talents, and I think that both are probably more ideally suited for a massive workload than MJD, but outside of Brian Westbrook, nobody in the league brings such a wide array of fully developed tools to the table as Jones-Drew. He excels in all three facets of the game- running, receiving, and blocking. He even excels in all of the facets of those facets. He can run with vision through traffic, he can run with speed in the open field, he can run with power and initiate contact, he can run with creativity and avoid contact. He runs great routes, has great hands, is very smart, has great field awareness, and is a devastating blocker. He has patience to wait for his blocks to develop, confidence to make something out of nothing, and wisdom to just get what he can when there's nothing else he can do. And his body type, which was seen as a disadvantage coming out, proves to be a big advantage- it makes him harder to locate in traffic (as evidenced by his ridiculous "fall down and then run untouched to the end zone" play against the Patriots his rookie year), and he always has a leverage advantage because it's impossible for a tackler to get below his pads. MJD is quite simply one of the most obscene talents in the entire NFL, and I have confidence that over the long run, that talent is going to shine through.

As for Marshawn Lynch, I haven't seen anything from him to suggest that he's anything more than just another very good back, another Joseph Addai, Chris Perry, Kevin Jones, LaMont Jordan, Willie Parker, etc. He might continue developing and one day become a stud nonpareil, but in the meantime, he's just another very good back in a long line of very good back. Traditionally, very good backs don't have elite value unless they're paired with a very good system (see: Addai, Joseph), and I'm not convinced that Buffalo is going to be a long-term rushing hotspot. I'm glad that I own Lynch because he should be a reliable RB2 for the next 3+ years for me, but if given the chance to trade a very good RB for one of the most talented RBs the NFL has to offer, you have to believe that I'm going to make that trade every time.

If you're still on the fence, let's put it this way- if Reggie Bush had done exactly what Jones-Drew had done in his first two seasons while splitting time with McAllister, where do you think Bush would be going in initial dynasty drafts right now? Personally, I think he'd be a top-5 pick. Jones-Drew didn't have the hype coming in that Bush did, but in reality, he was a pretty similar prospect, and he has performed like Bush was expected to perform. Think of how excited you were about Reggie Bush in the NFL two years ago. Now apply that to Maurice Jones-Drew.

If nothing else, if Jones-Drew continues sharing the load like this and finishing as a low-end RB1 / high-end RB2, it should prolong his career well beyond what you'd ordinarily expect from a young fantasy-relevant RB, if only because it dramatically decreases his chances of getting a serious injury.

 

[Gottabesweet]

Thinking of offering 1.3 for MJD

 

[jurb26]

MJD pretty easily for me. I see him as a better talent and in a better situation, both long and short term.