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Who would you rather own ROS? Kamara or David Johnson? (1 Viewer)

Who would you rather own ROS? Kamara or David Johnson?

  • A. Kamara

    Votes: 64 91.4%

  • D. Johnson

    Votes: 6 8.6%

  • Tossup

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    70
P

PhantomJB

Footballguy
This was a tough choice many people had in the 1st round...those who took a chance with Kamara are obviously ecstatic...DJ owners not so much regardless of who was available.

But which RB would you rather own going forward the next 11 games in Weeks 5-16 (assume PPR)?

D. Johnson: Needle point up. Coming off a 25-touch game...three of first four games against Top 7 rushing defenses (WAS/LAR/CHI)...he finally has a semi-competent QB...McCoy apparently figuring out he's got some talent...schedule lightening up substantially after their Week 9 bye...two of three games in FF playoffs against bottom-dwelling rushing defenses (DET/ATL/LAR).

A. Kamara: Needle pointing...down? No need to recount performance to date....Ingram coming back will eat into touches...but by how much? 5 of next 6 games against Top 10 rushing defenses (WAS/BAL/MIN/LAR/PHI)...weeks 14-16 feature two more (TB/CAR/PIT).

Full Disclosure: This is not an AC question...although I do own both DJ and M. Ingram...I'm more interested in learning how smart people think.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Would you rather have the RB from the NFL team that has scored 137 points after 4 games . . . or the one that has scored 37 points after 4 games?
Yes, the Saints have outscored the Cardinals by 100 points in 4 games.
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On the surface of course it's obvious. But do concepts like recency effect, strength of schedule, regression to the mean, market share of team's touches mean nothing? All of those point in Johnson's favor.

I guess I like to skate to where the puck is going to be and not to where it's been...a little surprised at the simplistic types of responses.

Also wondering how people can be so sure about predicting the future now...when at the beginning of the season 99.5% of the world was predicting completely the opposite by virtue of ADP's.

 
PhantomJB said:
On the surface of course it's obvious. But do concepts like recency effect, strength of schedule, regression to the mean, market share of team's touches mean nothing? All of those point in Johnson's favor.

I guess I like to skate to where the puck is going to be and not to where it's been...a little surprised at the simplistic types of responses.

Also wondering how people can be so sure about predicting the future now...when at the beginning of the season 99.5% of the world was predicting completely the opposite by virtue of ADP's.
Click to expand...
 I am a huge David Johnson fan. That said, I don’t think the Cardinals have any clue about how to use them appropriately. This is the lowest efficiency I’ve seen from him, and the offense as a whole is not running smoothly. The offensive line is not great, and that’s a big part of the problem. Additionally, they don’t seem very interested in throwing to him, which seems ridiculous considering he’s one of the best receiving backs in the NFL. 

 What made David Johnson so valuable, is that even with a negative game script, he would be heavily involved in the passing game. I’m not seeing that this year, and from what I understand,  that is unlikely to change. 

 I guess it also depends on the format, because in PPR David Johnson is far less valuable right now (which is a strange thing to say). 

 I also look at the division in which he plays, and where Kamara  gets to play Atlanta and Tampa Bay, David Johnson is looking at San Francisco, Seattle, and a really really tough Rams defense. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
 I am a huge David Johnson fan. That said, I don’t think the Cardinals have any clue about how to use them appropriately. This is the lowest efficiency I’ve seen from him, and the offense as a whole is not running smoothly. The offensive line is not great, and that’s a big part of the problem. Additionally, they don’t seem very interested in throwing to him, which seems ridiculous considering he’s one of the best receiving backs in the NFL. 

 What made David Johnson so valuable, is that even with a negative game script, he would be heavily involved in the passing game. I’m not seeing that this year, and from what I understand,  that is unlikely to change. 

 I guess it also depends on the format, because in PPR David Johnson is far less valuable right now (which is a strange thing to say). 

 I also look at the division in which he plays, and where Kamara  gets to play Atlanta and Tampa Bay, David Johnson is looking at San Francisco, Seattle, and a really really tough Rams defense. 
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I just think in a few weeks it's gonna be a lot closer comparison than people think...

 
PhantomJB said:
I just think in a few weeks it's gonna be a lot closer comparison than people think...
Click to expand...
Well, I’m just one person, but ok.

also, what do you mean,”you people”? 

/Tropic Thunder

It is what it is - the cards are in a tough division with a rookie QB and what seems to be a below average OL. 

I think they’re better than they’ve played, but not a lot better. 

DJ isn’t going to live up to his top 5 draft position this year regardless. He’s a high end RB2, who will have 1-2 monster games (probably when I face him this year in my 2 leagues, respectively) 

Good luck. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Well, I’m just one person, but ok.

also, what do you mean,”you people”? 

/Tropic Thunder

It is what it is - the cards are in a tough division with a rookie QB and what seems to be a below average OL. 

I think they’re better than they’ve played, but not a lot better. 

DJ isn’t going to live up to his top 5 draft position this year regardless. He’s a high end RB2, who will have 1-2 monster games (probably when I face him this year in my 2 leagues, respectively) 

Good luck. 
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People overall in the poll. All good.

Like I said I'm also interested in seeing how people on this board think.

Even though I think it's more of a tossup I can see much more how ADP's work....Kamara would become overvalued IMO based on recent performance and DJ massively undervalued.

 
PhantomJB said:
People overall in the poll. All good.

Like I said I'm also interested in seeing how people on this board think.

Even though I think it's more of a tossup I can see much more how ADP's work....Kamara would become overvalued IMO based on recent performance and DJ massively undervalued.
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Hard to "overvalue" the #6 pick in fantasy this year - he just doesn't have much room to move.

 
PhantomJB said:
People overall in the poll. All good.

Like I said I'm also interested in seeing how people on this board think.

Even though I think it's more of a tossup I can see much more how ADP's work....Kamara would become overvalued IMO based on recent performance and DJ massively undervalued.
Click to expand...
Kamara was a monster last year, too. He doesn't need to maintain his current pace to outscore DJ by a lot. 

 
SameSongNDance said:
I can't wait until OP bumps this with a "told you so" post in a month because that's how these threads, fantasy and football works. 
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Won't happen.

If it turns out I'm wrong and Kamara>>>D. Johnson ROS then I'll need to reflect on how I evaluate players <insert smart comment> and concepts like strength of schedule.

If I'm right and they actually come out closer than the poll indicates I'll realize this board really has nothing to offer so won't waste my time.

 
Ilov80s said:
I’m not sure there’s anyone I’d rather have than Kamara ROS
Click to expand...
Gurley is the only one.  And as a Gurley owner, I'm thinking of trying to trade him for Kamara after his bye because I'm a Saint's fan and would love just to own him.  Gurley should be getting more touches from what I've seen, but McVay is set on passing, passing, passing even deep into the 4th quarter.

 
PhantomJB said:
On the surface of course it's obvious. But do concepts like recency effect, strength of schedule, regression to the mean, market share of team's touches mean nothing? All of those point in Johnson's favor.

I guess I like to skate to where the puck is going to be and not to where it's been...a little surprised at the simplistic types of responses.

Also wondering how people can be so sure about predicting the future now...when at the beginning of the season 99.5% of the world was predicting completely the opposite by virtue of ADP's.
Click to expand...
My point was that the Saints offense scores way more points than the Cardinals do. I don't expect that to change. Kamara catches a ton of passes. I don't expect that to change either.
Johnson might be able to match Kamara in yardage (and that's not a slam dunk to happen), but I doubt he sees anywhere near the scoring opportunities or the number of receptions that Kamara will.

Maybe the Saints offense cools off some and maybe the Cardinals start producing more (it would be hard for them to do worse). But I don't think they will level off as equals. Saints offense will still be >>>>>>> the Cardinals offense.

As far as the concept goes, I am always in the market for guys that have underperformed and expect them to do better and get close to their established baseline. But the way Kamara has played last year and this year, I still think his level of production will be a notch above Johnson's. If Kamara ends up 1-2 the rest of the way and Johnson is 3-5, that's still better then he's been producing to date.

 
PhantomJB said:
Won't happen.

If it turns out I'm wrong and Kamara>>>D. Johnson ROS then I'll need to reflect on how I evaluate players <insert smart comment> and concepts like strength of schedule.

If I'm right and they actually come out closer than the poll indicates I'll realize this board really has nothing to offer so won't waste my time.
Click to expand...
For what it's worth, at this exact moment, I think it's closer than perceived. 

Like I said in Kamara's thread, Kamara pretty much topped out at ~60% of the snaps towards the end of the year last year, he's been averaging ~82% so far this year without Ingram. He was also utilized at most ~20 times a game last year, over the past two weeks he's been utilized 64 times. He's been utilized a whopping 37 times in the RZ, the next closest player is Gurley with 26. Ingram has to bring his ceiling down, even though Kamara's ceiling so far has essentially been infinite. 

And Rosen played really well in his first start, he showed a lot of promise. If Fitz, RSJ and Kirk could've helped him out by securing ~5 very catchable balls I think they win that game and the narrative about ARI is little more optimistic. Edmunds' usage has also been trending down weekly, DJ has had less and less competition for touches.

NO's playcalling, offense and run blocking are still leagues better than ARI's. I'm still choosing Kamara is PPR regardless, but yeah I can see the gap between them shrinking.

But the real reason you're getting so much #### for this thread is because I'm pretty sure Kamara is on pace to put up the most points by a RB ever. 

 
Shawnky said:
Gurley is the only one.  And as a Gurley owner, I'm thinking of trying to trade him for Kamara after his bye because I'm a Saint's fan and would love just to own him.  Gurley should be getting more touches from what I've seen, but McVay is set on passing, passing, passing even deep into the 4th quarter.
Click to expand...
He’s the only player worth comparing to Kamara right now

 
I think the answer is less cut-and-dried than people are making it, actually. Regardless of whether or not you agree with the premise of the OP, it's still a good thread. Let's give some praise for a well thought out, if possibly flawed, premise.  

 
SameSongNDance said:
For what it's worth, at this exact moment, I think it's closer than perceived. 

Like I said in Kamara's thread, Kamara pretty much topped out at ~60% of the snaps towards the end of the year last year, he's been averaging ~82% so far this year without Ingram. He was also utilized at most ~20 times a game last year, over the past two weeks he's been utilized 64 times. He's been utilized a whopping 37 times in the RZ, the next closest player is Gurley with 26. Ingram has to bring his ceiling down, even though Kamara's ceiling so far has essentially been infinite. 

And Rosen played really well in his first start, he showed a lot of promise. If Fitz, RSJ and Kirk could've helped him out by securing ~5 very catchable balls I think they win that game and the narrative about ARI is little more optimistic. Edmunds' usage has also been trending down weekly, DJ has had less and less competition for touches.

NO's playcalling, offense and run blocking are still leagues better than ARI's. I'm still choosing Kamara is PPR regardless, but yeah I can see the gap between them shrinking.

But the real reason you're getting so much #### for this thread is because I'm pretty sure Kamara is on pace to put up the most points by a RB ever. 
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Great comments.

But I'm also looking at the upcoming schedule for the Saints and see a lot tougher sledding than YTD...5 of next 6 games against WAS/PHI/LAR/@BAL/@MIN (sucked to date but still). The whole Saints offense struggled against CLE, which is the only defense comparable to those Kamara is about to face. But this is clearly not a concern to most.

OTOH Johnson gets KC/OAK/DET/GB/ATL after his bye.

I guess the thing that baffles me most is how early trends, changes, future conditions, etc. are not factored into most predictions. Just take most recent 4 games and multiply by 4.

 
rockaction said:
I think the answer is less cut-and-dried than people are making it, actually. Regardless of whether or not you agree with the premise of the OP, it's still a good thread. Let's give some praise for a well thought out, if possibly flawed, premise.  
Click to expand...
LOL. Thanks for the bone.

 
PhantomJB said:
On the surface of course it's obvious. But do concepts like recency effect, strength of schedule, regression to the mean, market share of team's touches mean nothing? All of those point in Johnson's favor.

I guess I like to skate to where the puck is going to be and not to where it's been...a little surprised at the simplistic types of responses.

Also wondering how people can be so sure about predicting the future now...when at the beginning of the season 99.5% of the world was predicting completely the opposite by virtue of ADP's.
Click to expand...
Because we have seen how completely inept the Cardinals offense and their coaching staff is? No one could have predicted that. 

 
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