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Who's the next great Fantasy QB? (1 Viewer)
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Tannehill has little shot because he will never be able to make all of the NFL throws.
One staff member (Waldman?) is pretty high on Wilson developing into more of a passer post-Lynch. Agree they need more weapons, but Luke Wilson and Paul Richardson have a lot of potential.
Cam would have been my pick over the summer, but this year has shown the dark side. He doesn't have any weapons, a terrible offensive line and is injured... so it is hard to say his talent has really degraded.
Still think Bortles has the highest ceiling in the recent draft, but never a fan of a QB developing by being thrown to the wolves.
One staff member (Waldman?) is pretty high on Wilson developing into more of a passer post-Lynch. Agree they need more weapons, but Luke Wilson and Paul Richardson have a lot of potential.
Cam would have been my pick over the summer, but this year has shown the dark side. He doesn't have any weapons, a terrible offensive line and is injured... so it is hard to say his talent has really degraded.
Still think Bortles has the highest ceiling in the recent draft, but never a fan of a QB developing by being thrown to the wolves.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I don't want to draft a rookie QB. It's expensive and time consuming to buy QB prospects. I want a young QB who is about to blow up. Luck has already blown up and is arguably the most expensive player in QB heavy dynasty leagues right now. Just impossible to get him. But there are some other options who may be available. Wilson might still be available at a reasonable price - not cheap, but as cheap as he'll probably ever be again. The Foles/Sanchez combo might be available cheap because both owners may be worried about their guy. If one owner already has both, you're not getting them.
But the guy I like right now as a buy low is Dalton. I think he's ready to blow up (in a good way) once that offense is back on the field and in one piece. I admit that I'm not enamored with his talent, so much as his situation, but I think it's a hell of a situation. They've got a ton of talent on that offense. Once they get AJ, Sanu, Green and Eifert on the field at the same time, and a healthy Gio, and a little more experience for Hill, that offense is going to be solid. Sanu got a bunch of playing time this year, and looked good when he was needed. Green got a bunch last year, and looked good when he was needed. AJ has always looked good. Now that Dalton has real NFL game experience using all three of them heavily, he'll be a better quarterback.
And yes, I know he's looked really bad in a couple games recently. That's what makes him a good buy low right now. Rremember that Gio was hurt, Hill isn't a very good pass blocker yet, their tight ends are a bit of a mess, AJ wasn't playing for one of those games, and Jones and Eifert haven't been there. And while some fans might be getting sick of Dalton, the Bengals would be crazy to let him go. The Bengals have a game and a half lead in arguably the toughest division in football, despite injuries all around the offense. He's had some good games as well as a couple really bad ones, but that happens with young QBs. Peyton Manning had 28 interceptions as a rookie. Tom Brady had multiple 4 INT games early in his career (mostly in Miami). He's a maturing pocket passer, and it takes time to get there. I'll also add something that might not seem like a big deal - the fact that he's getting nationally televised commercials now means something to me. It means that advertisers are starting to believe he's the face of a successful franchise, and there's a real business value to a small market organization to have a nationally recognizable player like that. There are a lot of factors that lead me to believe that they will continue to invest in him, and obviously if he can get a playoff win, that would go a long way towards solidifying his role. I don't expect much from him in redraft, but I have high dynasty hopes for him.
Another guy who's a little younger than the Manning/Brady contingent - Philip Rivers, who turns 33 next week. That's not young, but it's five or six years younger than his supposed contemporaries and only two years older than Rodgers. He's got a lot of football left in him, and the team has some good passing weapons for him - Allen is starting to flash again, Royal has some hot streaks each year, Gates is apparently never going to retire, Mathews is a solid receiving option when healthy, their pass catching back role fell off when Woodhead got hurt, but they seem committed to having good receiving backs, and there's been plenty of talk about them bringing in some wide receiver help in the offseason.
If you can get five to seven more good years out of Rivers - which seems reasonable these days for a healthy, relatively young QB who doesn't rely on his legs - then you'll probably get more than you would developing the Next Big Thing at QB, watching him bust, then developing the next Next Big Thing, and the next next Next Big Thing, until one of them finally becomes a Big Thing. I think people undervalue the bird in the hand, and after a coolish stretch in the middle of the season, he may be available despite the early season MVP talk.
But the guy I like right now as a buy low is Dalton. I think he's ready to blow up (in a good way) once that offense is back on the field and in one piece. I admit that I'm not enamored with his talent, so much as his situation, but I think it's a hell of a situation. They've got a ton of talent on that offense. Once they get AJ, Sanu, Green and Eifert on the field at the same time, and a healthy Gio, and a little more experience for Hill, that offense is going to be solid. Sanu got a bunch of playing time this year, and looked good when he was needed. Green got a bunch last year, and looked good when he was needed. AJ has always looked good. Now that Dalton has real NFL game experience using all three of them heavily, he'll be a better quarterback.
And yes, I know he's looked really bad in a couple games recently. That's what makes him a good buy low right now. Rremember that Gio was hurt, Hill isn't a very good pass blocker yet, their tight ends are a bit of a mess, AJ wasn't playing for one of those games, and Jones and Eifert haven't been there. And while some fans might be getting sick of Dalton, the Bengals would be crazy to let him go. The Bengals have a game and a half lead in arguably the toughest division in football, despite injuries all around the offense. He's had some good games as well as a couple really bad ones, but that happens with young QBs. Peyton Manning had 28 interceptions as a rookie. Tom Brady had multiple 4 INT games early in his career (mostly in Miami). He's a maturing pocket passer, and it takes time to get there. I'll also add something that might not seem like a big deal - the fact that he's getting nationally televised commercials now means something to me. It means that advertisers are starting to believe he's the face of a successful franchise, and there's a real business value to a small market organization to have a nationally recognizable player like that. There are a lot of factors that lead me to believe that they will continue to invest in him, and obviously if he can get a playoff win, that would go a long way towards solidifying his role. I don't expect much from him in redraft, but I have high dynasty hopes for him.
Another guy who's a little younger than the Manning/Brady contingent - Philip Rivers, who turns 33 next week. That's not young, but it's five or six years younger than his supposed contemporaries and only two years older than Rodgers. He's got a lot of football left in him, and the team has some good passing weapons for him - Allen is starting to flash again, Royal has some hot streaks each year, Gates is apparently never going to retire, Mathews is a solid receiving option when healthy, their pass catching back role fell off when Woodhead got hurt, but they seem committed to having good receiving backs, and there's been plenty of talk about them bringing in some wide receiver help in the offseason.
If you can get five to seven more good years out of Rivers - which seems reasonable these days for a healthy, relatively young QB who doesn't rely on his legs - then you'll probably get more than you would developing the Next Big Thing at QB, watching him bust, then developing the next Next Big Thing, and the next next Next Big Thing, until one of them finally becomes a Big Thing. I think people undervalue the bird in the hand, and after a coolish stretch in the middle of the season, he may be available despite the early season MVP talk.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
If you are going to buy low on a qb, I think Cam is the guy you want to target. Hopefully you get an impatient owner. who is scared of injuries.
East Coast Bias
Footballguy
Shane Carden
bostonfred
Footballguy
Not a bad choice if you can get him cheap but I feel like his price is still too high in dynasty to be a true buy low, and if you're going to pay upper echelon prices for a quarterback, I don't think I want to pay for one who makes a big part of his living with his legs. Cam might be the best mobile fantasy QB we've ever seen, but a lot of things seem to go wrong for mobile QBs in huge and unexpected ways. Kordell was a mega stud for a year and was a top 5 redraft pick the following year, then he just disappeared. Vick didn't just have the dog thing, he had some injuries and after reappearing on the map for the Eagles, he dropped back off just as quickly and lost his job. We all saw what happened with RG3. Cam's body type is closer to Roethlisberger, but he's had a ton of injuries, too, and has played hurt a lot. And while Cam was hardly set up for success this year, he really looked bad playing hurt. It's hard to say how much of that was the receiving corps and how much was Cam being hurt, but this seems like something that could rear its head again at any time, which makes him a reasonably risky QB.Maybe I should have Russell Wilson a little lower, too, and I'm only keeping him up higher because he hasn't been hurt yet. I feel like Wilson is a better passer, but a big part of that is his mobility and his ability to get out of the pocket to mitigate the height issue, so even if he weren't trying to run, he would still need his mobility. It might be the recency effect of Cam's injury that's making me nervous with him and not Wilson, but I still feel a little safer with Wilson.
EBF
Footballguy
Really? I'd say he has been exposed as a mediocre Alex Smith type. Not worth a top 120 pick in most formats to me. He's just totally ordinary and incapable of elevating the players around him. I can't remember him ever playing well in a game of any importance. He's the type of guy who can get his team to 9-7, but never over the hump.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Nice post Boston, though I think 7 years is stretching it. But both Rivers and Roethlisberger could give you 4-5 solid years pretty cheap.
As for the young guys, the only one I'm really interested in right now is Garoppolo. Sitting on him in all but one dynasty and will continue to do so until he flops or retires.
As for the young guys, the only one I'm really interested in right now is Garoppolo. Sitting on him in all but one dynasty and will continue to do so until he flops or retires.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Actually he's already led them to records of 9-7, 10-6 and 11-5, and they're 8-3-1 with four to play this season. He was the number five qb laat year and his down year this year coincides with injuries to his top two receivers, his best receiving back and best tight end.
I get that he's not an elite talent and he's had some horrid performances in nationally televised games but I think he's a great buy low because people are way too down on him right now. Like you saying he's not worth a top 120 pick. Maybe you're right, but that certainly means he's cheap enough considering his age and the weapons around him. At that prove, even if you don't believe in him, you can afford to buy him and wait for a couple big games then sell him to someone like me.
spodog
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
They'll never get anywhere in the playoffs with Dalton as their QB. He's the limiting reagent in that equation. They've given him all the weapons he could ask for and he still hasn't delivered a great season. I get that they've had some significant injuries this year, but we're not talking about one season. He has been in the league for four years. He has started 60 games. During that time he has never shown signs of significant progress or improvement.
You said he was the number five QB last year, but that's based on FF stats, not on his NFL performance. Once you get beyond the obvious elite guys like Peyton and Rodgers who have elite FF stats and elite NFL performance metrics, my philosophy with QBs has been to draft good NFL QBs and hope that they become good FF QBs rather than drafting mediocre or poor NFL QBs who fluked their way to a solid FF season. Dalton isn't atrocious, but he's much closer to "meh" than to elite in terms of his NFL ability.
Look at his stats. He has never topped 7.33 yards per attempt in a season. His career average is 6.99. On top of that, he throws far too many INTs. 93 passing TDs in his career. 62 INTs. For the sake of comparison, Rodgers has thrown 220 TDs against 55 INTs. Luck already has 80 TDs against just 38 INTs. I'm not going to go through every player's history and dig up the stats, but I'll venture to guess that virtually no QBs in the past 10-15 years who were as mediocre as Dalton after the first 60 games of their NFL career went on to become elite QBs. He's a very bizarre choice for the list because there's almost no mystery about him. We've seen enough of him to know what he is, and what he is isn't an elite QB. It's like saying Torrey Smith is the next great WR. If that were his destiny, we'd know it by now.
Dalton only finished high in FF last season because he had a lot of pass attempts. Part of what forced Cincy's hand in that regard was the putrid rushing efficiency of BJGE. With Hill providing more value in that role and Bernard still around, I expect the Bengals to maintain a run-first identity moving forward. Dalton will be the caretaker who they rely on to not lose games, not the guy they lean on when they need a play. He has already shown that he can't do that.
If anything, he might still be OVER-rated. He only ranks 26th in the NFL in QB rating. He's 21st among qualifying players in yards per attempt. Last year he ranked 15th and 12th in those categories. He's an average starting QB who occasionally flirts with being slightly above average. Nothing more.
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Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Huh? The guy has a rocket for an arm. He's been inaccurate on the deep ball so far in his career and it's hurting his YPA. I don't think that means he will be inaccurate on the deep ball throughout his career. IMO Tannehill has OK talent around him now. Wallace is miscast as a WR1 though. Put a guy that can high point the ball out there in lieu of Wallace, and I bet Tannehill's deep ball numbers go up. Give him Demaryius, AJ Green, Julio, Jordy, or an Evans type of player, and I think it makes a world of difference.
If you statistically compare what Tannehill (26) is doing right now to Drew Brees at 26 years old, it matches up pretty well. That's the full season to date. Drop out the first three games this year with the new offense getting installed? Tannehill has a passer rating of nearly 100, his YPA is 7.4, and he's completing over 70% of his passes.
I'll be the first to admit it's not always pretty with Tannehill. He still makes mental mistakes, head scratcher throws, and is definitely lacking in all around consistency. I just think of him as a great athlete learning to play QB. IMO in another year or two, with better pass catchers to throw to, Tannehill could very well be one of the top 5 replacements to Manning/Brady/Brees.
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zamboni
Footballguy
Nice info.
That's the thing I'm wondering about Tannehill - I'm not familiar with his arm strength since we never see it.
Does he really have a rocket arm but just doesn't use it because he's too inaccurate right now? I don't buy the lack of talent because Wallace has seemed to be open on several occasions but Tannehill missed him. Of course, it helps if Wallace attacks the ball unlike his bad drop on MNF against the Jets.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
This may be the case. We are possibkly living in a golden age of QBs.
Manning - 1st round, 1st overall, can't miss
Luck - 1st round, 1st overall, can't miss
Rodgers - 1st round but late, overlooked a la Marino, landed with right team and right coach/coordinator in McCarthy
Brady - 6th round pick, landed with right team and coach/coordinator
Brees - 2nd round, landed with right team and coach/coordinator
When they were rookies or in college, people may have likely answered Luck and Manning to this question, and maybe Rodgers too.
But in 2003 no one would have said Brees, in 2000 no one would have said Brady
Manning will retire, then Brady and Brees, then Rodgers, then Luck, most likely in that order.
Does Mariota really, truly belong in that "can't miss" category?
Of heirs apparent with the great coach/coordinators, who is waiting in the wings?
NE - Jimmy Garoppolo (this could change)
GB - no one, too early?
NO - Ryan Griffin (this could change)
Philly - Foles, Sanchez, but I don't get the feeling anyone is going to say either of them will rise to "Great".
Sea - Wilson - question, can a QB who runs that much, as opposed to a scrambler like Tarkenton (who lasted forever), last very long?
With the colleges increasingly relying on the hybrid QB we may see a decrease in the quality of pure passers. We maye see the FF QB position degrade and become more volatile like we have with RBs.
bostonfred
Footballguy
First four years
Peyton Manning 111 TDs, 80 INTs, YPA 7.4, 32-32 record, 0-2 postseason
Andy Dalton 93 TDs, 62 INTs, YPA 7.0, 37-27-1 record, 0-3 postseason
This is actually a surprisingly fair comparison, since Dalton had AJ Green, and Manning had Marvin Harrison. Dalton had Gio Bernard in there, I guess, but that doesn't compare favorably to Manning, who either had Marshall Faulk or Edgerrin James every year. Dalton had Gresham and then Eifert, Manning had Pollard. Manning's YPA was a little better, and it was a tougher passing era, but in the year that Marvin Harrison missed time, his YPA was only 6.5.
Tom Brady 97 TDs, 52 INTs, YPA 6.7, 48-14 record, 9-0 postseason
Andy Dalton 93 TDs, 62 INTs, YPA 7.0, 37-27-1 record, 0-3 postseason
Brady had a better TD:INT ratio, and obviously won a lot more games in the regular and postseason, but his YPA wasn't great, and people were still calling him a low ceiling, caretaker quarterback. One obvious difference is that Brady didn't have the quality at receiver that Dalton and Manning had, but there was no real indication of the elite fantasy numbers he'd go on to put up later in his career.
Drew Brees 99 TDs, 53 INTs, YPA 6.8, 30-28 record, 0-1 postseason
Andy Dalton 93 TDs, 62 INTs, YPA 7.0, 37-27-1 record, 0-3 postseason
Again, Brees had a slightly better TD:INT ratio, but his YPA wasn't as good as Dalton's, and he wasn't just considered a weak QB, they drafted a quarterback and outright released him, and QB-needy Miami even passed on him for Daunte Culpepper. He played all of his first four years with Tomlinson, and two of them with Antonio Gates, including Gates' breakout pro bowl season.
It's easy to say that his numbers should be better, but when you compare him to three of the top QBs in NFL history - currently first, fourth and fifth in all time touchdowns - he doesn't look that far off. So let's compare him to Tannehill, who is a year younger:
Ryan Tannehill 56 TDs, 39 INTs, YPA 6.7, 22-22 record, 0 postseason games
Andy Dalton 93 TDs, 62 INTs, YPA 7.0, 37-27-1 record, 0-3 postseason
So yeah, Dalton's numbers aren't on the same gaudy path as Luck and Russell Wilson and Cam Newton, but those guys have already emerged as elite and you're not going to be able to buy them cheaply. Dalton's flashed one great fantasy season (which was also an 11-5 regular season that had people buzzing until their first round playoff exit). But it was also the first season where he had legitimate alternatives to AJ Green, and while his numbers have regressed somewhat this year, I think his ability to get the ball to secondary receivers has improved because he's been forced to do it more often instead of forcing it to AJ whenever he got in trouble. And that will make him a better QB in the long run, imo.
If the conversation is around guys who HAVEN'T emerged yet, who can be acquired cheaply, and have the potential to emerge as high end QBs down the road, then I strongly believe Dalton belongs in the conversation, and based on your comments, I absolutely stand by my statement that he's underrated.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Don't think I'd call this a fair comparison. While Marvin was a 1st round pick, he didn't show a propensity to be elite with Harbaugh. M&M clicked during Peyton's 2nd year, Marvin's 4th. Hard to say what Green would do without Dalton but just watching the games shows us that Green makes Dalton more than the other way.
You should be able to get Dalton cheap, but that's because he's at a slightly greater risk of losing his job.
Dalton is basically Romo, maybe worse.
ETA: if Tannehill had a receiver like Green, that would be exciting.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
You're box score scouting, fubar. Harrison got hurt and missed the last four games of Manning's rookie season, but he was on pace for 79 catches, over 1000 yards and over 9 tds... and if anything, his numbers stood to improve the last four games of his rookie qb's season, when he had been heating up.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I do agree that green makes Dalton and not the other way around, and i do think the romo comparison is reasonable, even if they're totally different kinds of players with totally different paths to where they ended up. I would be very happy to get a young romo at Dalton's current price. Can't imagine why you wouldn't.
I'm not projecting Dalton to have luck's ceiling, or to become manning brees or Brady, if that's what you're thinking.
I'm not projecting Dalton to have luck's ceiling, or to become manning brees or Brady, if that's what you're thinking.
FUBAR
Footballguy
just looking back at the stats as it's been a while.
But your point emphasizes my original point - Peyton was instrumental to making Marvin the player he became.
FUBAR
Footballguy
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Don't forget to mention Dalton took one of the cheapest franchises in the league to the playoffs 4 consecutive times(his whole career) as well. What were the Bengals before he was drafted and made the probowl his rookie season? Guys that get praised like Cutler can't even do that in the most advantageous circumstances. Did you guys not see Tannehill vs the Jets? They have the worst pass defense in the history of the league. He barely topped 200 yards and should have throw like 3 INTs. He's not emerging into anything.
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msudaisy26
Footballguy
I disagree with the take on Harrison. I am on my phone so I can't look up the stats and post easily, but I believe Harrison was putting up around 900 yards and 8 touchdowns a year his first 2 years with Harbaugh. This was a different era too, I don't think Harbaugh even hit 3000 yards. Receivers didn't break out until year 3. Harrison was going to be a pro bowler for years to come with any good quarterback. With a great quarterback, like Manning, made him an all pro.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
and tannehills vision is awful, tons of replays showing landry & wallace wide open and tanny just flat out dont see em
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Different era. Comparing those stats isn't apples to apples.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Doesn't sound like you're disagreeing with me except maybe the semantics. Peyton helped make Marvin an all pro / HOF worthy WR. Dalton is not doing that for Green.
Cheesedawg
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The Bengals offense over the last 3 seasons (using 12 game pro rated numbers for this season)
2012 391 points (12th) 1016 plays 39TD 5323 yards 57.7% pass 42.3% run
2013 430 points (6th) 1097 plays 47TD 5891 yards 56.2% pass 43.8% run
2014 347 points (18th) 1008 plays 37TD 5497 yards 52.4% pass 47.6% run
The offense has declined from the previous two seasons in points scored and is running the ball significantly more than they were before.
Andy Dalton
2011 516 passing attempts 300 completions 3398 yards 20 TD 13 interceptions
2012 528 passing attempts 329 completions 3669 yards 27 TD 16 interceptions
2013 586 passing attempts 363 completions 4293 yards 33 TD 20 interceptions
Andy Dalton after 12 games is on pace for
486 passing attempts 307 completions 3452 yards 17.52 TD 17.52 interceptions
This does not seem like a good situation to me with a history of Hue Jackson favoring the running game thus limiting Daltons opportunity compared to what he had previously in Grudens offense.
What is worse is this is putting more pressure on the defense because the offense is not scoring as many points. The Bengals defense is currently second to the Titans in plays run against at 837 (paces to 1116 plays against). So defensive improvement could see that flip back somewhat in the Bengals favor as could a healthier roster. But as long as Jackson is the OC I would not be counting on Dalton returning to pre 2014 form in this offense.
2012 391 points (12th) 1016 plays 39TD 5323 yards 57.7% pass 42.3% run
2013 430 points (6th) 1097 plays 47TD 5891 yards 56.2% pass 43.8% run
2014 347 points (18th) 1008 plays 37TD 5497 yards 52.4% pass 47.6% run
The offense has declined from the previous two seasons in points scored and is running the ball significantly more than they were before.
Andy Dalton
2011 516 passing attempts 300 completions 3398 yards 20 TD 13 interceptions
2012 528 passing attempts 329 completions 3669 yards 27 TD 16 interceptions
2013 586 passing attempts 363 completions 4293 yards 33 TD 20 interceptions
Andy Dalton after 12 games is on pace for
486 passing attempts 307 completions 3452 yards 17.52 TD 17.52 interceptions
This does not seem like a good situation to me with a history of Hue Jackson favoring the running game thus limiting Daltons opportunity compared to what he had previously in Grudens offense.
What is worse is this is putting more pressure on the defense because the offense is not scoring as many points. The Bengals defense is currently second to the Titans in plays run against at 837 (paces to 1116 plays against). So defensive improvement could see that flip back somewhat in the Bengals favor as could a healthier roster. But as long as Jackson is the OC I would not be counting on Dalton returning to pre 2014 form in this offense.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
That's not how quarterbacking works in the NFL. It's progressions.
Happens all the time even to the great ones. Remember the shot of Favre in the championship game vs the Giants? Crucial end of game play, and he threw it to the only guy that was covered on the play.
Now as they get more and more experience, they tend to miss fewer of those opportunities because they do a better job of reading the defense.
Tannehill can be very efficient when his first read is open and not beyond 20 yards downfield. He is just not good at hitting recievers deep. That isn't a Wallace problem, it is Tannehill problem. Having a receiver to high-point a ball that is already off target is not going help. Having another guy getting wide open that that isn't Tannehill's first read won't help. Just very skeptical he will develop into an elite NFL QB. I do think he can become good enough to have success. However, he pretty much #### the bed with the playoffs on the line last year.
Timmay
Footballguy
Dalton is very average at best. Green makes Dalton the player he is today. I do think Dalton is and will continue to be a better QB than Kaepernick, who many compare each other to due to them coming out in the same draft class with back to back picks and recently signing similar incentive based deals. Dalton isn't very accurate with his throws and he can't throw a deep ball. If I had to pick one player that I would guess as Dalton having a similar career and somewhat similar abilities with, it would be Romo. Makes throws that often times are questioned, don't have huge arms, can run when they need to (more early Romo than now), weapons around them make them look better than what they are, checks down a lot.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Maybe Dalton is passing less because green and jones and eifert were hurt. Maybe his efficiency with hill at running back is down because hill can't pass block, which hue just publicly called him out for. Those seem just as plausible to me as "he regressed" or "hue doesn't like passing". And yes, I know hue is a run heavy coach, but we have no idea how he would run the offense with all the receivers healthy. I would usually expect a successful running game with strong receivers to mean more play action, more efficient passing, and fewer turnovers.
I'm not trying to convince anyone that Dalton will be top five every year, but I feel like he can be top ten with top five upside once manning brees and Brady retire. And I think a lot of the reasons people are giving for his down year ignore the injuries to his receivers and top running back (and his best pass blocking running back and tight end). That makes me think he's a great buy low, because people are so down on him that it costs next to nothing even if im wrong.
I'm not trying to convince anyone that Dalton will be top five every year, but I feel like he can be top ten with top five upside once manning brees and Brady retire. And I think a lot of the reasons people are giving for his down year ignore the injuries to his receivers and top running back (and his best pass blocking running back and tight end). That makes me think he's a great buy low, because people are so down on him that it costs next to nothing even if im wrong.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Most QBs don't come into the league and understand all the nuances of playing the position. Listening to Aaron Rodgers talk about the volume of things that go through his brain presnap is amazing in its own right. Now process what happens in the 2-3 seconds that you have post snap and make the right decision every time. That's the process that Tannehill is going through right now. Rodgers has full command of it all, and is like another OC on the field. It's a huge advantage for him. Obviously he's hugely talented as well, but don't underestimate his ability to get the team into the right play, and having a good understanding of what the DC is trying to do to him. It takes years of experience to get to that level. It's why a lot of QBs don't hit their prime until 27+ years old.
I wasn't trying to suggest Tannehill doesn't have a problem throwing the deep ball. There's no question he does. I just think that's a correctable problem in time, and that a different style of WR1 would help him too.
I understand people don't have patience for QBs to develop. Rodgers, Favre, Brees etc all had plenty of critics and holes in their game as younger players. They worked on them, got better and became elite. I think Tannehill has similar upside. He just needs another year or two of seasoning.
Your points are well taken, I just see the clock on him learning these things as running out more quickly than you do. Dynasty owners probably have more patience than NFL teams. It is interesting that you put forth three examples of players that were allowed to sit and learn through at least their first year. I think that really matters. It would have mattered a lot for Tannehill.Kitrick Taylor said:
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mphtrilogy
Footballguy
wilson for sure
once they add two more wr weapons and lynch leaves
they will need his sizzle
once they add two more wr weapons and lynch leaves
they will need his sizzle
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Teddy Bridgewater T-7th Most Accurate QB Under Pressure
Vikings: Too early, or too late, to call Teddy Bridgewater franchise QB?
There have been times where Bridgewater has missed some wide open receivers. Particularly on deep throws as was a concern about him at his pro day as well. In the most recent game Bridgewater connected on some of these throws and the passes were right on target. So I have seen some improvement. Bridgewaters short and mid range accuracy has been fine. He does check down too much. His completion percentage is currently 61%
3nOut
Footballguy
The 'Elite' QBs start off their careers in one of two ways. Either they start as rookies (Manning, Luck) or develop for a year or two under another established Elite QB (Rodgers, Brady). This is obvious, but what they have in common is that they showed they would be Elite immediately after they became the starter. They didn't need to 'develop'. The only other QB I can think of that doesn't fit this mold is Brees. Is there anyone else that became Elite only after a couple of years of starting? I think you can become a very good Quartberback after a free years, but I'm not sure you can become Elite. Can it simply be that what you see is what you get?
slackjawedyokel
Footballguy
I still like Bridgewater as a longterm prospect. He does have a good arm and is athletic enough to get around. He could be highly coveted in 2 years.
FUBAR
Footballguy
That might be true in recent years.
Steve young is the first exception I can think of but that was a while ago and his career is a bit different than the norm.
Niles Standish
Footballguy
I'd throw another in for Cam. 2 top 5 years, and having a bad year he's 16th so not horrible. Plus he's only 25. Sure there is an injury risk, but he's a big guy so maybe not like Vick/RG3.
Gvindy
Footballguy
G O A T according to Jaworski, what a joke...
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