Who's the next great Fantasy QB? (1 Viewer)

[Gvindy]

Am I alone in the Mettenbeger love? Elite might be a stretch, but I could see him attaining some Big Ben type seasons if he stays in.

 

[bostonfred]

The 'Elite' QBs start off their careers in one of two ways. Either they start as rookies (Manning, Luck) or develop for a year or two under another established Elite QB (Rodgers, Brady). This is obvious, but what they have in common is that they showed they would be Elite immediately after they became the starter. They didn't need to 'develop'. The only other QB I can think of that doesn't fit this mold is Brees. Is there anyone else that became Elite only after a couple of years of starting? I think you can become a very good Quartberback after a free years, but I'm not sure you can become Elite. Can it simply be that what you see is what you get?

That sounds great but it's not really measurable in any predictive way. We've seen guys like Kaepernick and RG3 apparently crap out recently, while Tom Brady gave no indication of elite fantasy numbers early in his career, never surpassing 28 TDs until he broke the NFL TD record with 50. If you look at some of the all time great quarterbacks, their first couple years were usually fairly pedestrian compared to what they would eventually do while they master the fundamentals and nuances of the craft - and the guys who do great early usually are getting by on some kind of smoke and mirrors that seems to inevitably get figured out. It's hard to believe now, but Peyton Manning was a pretty mediocre fantasy QB his first few years in the league. He had one of the all time great rookie seasons, but he had a ton of interceptions. He was drafted early every year, but ended up middle of the road, somewhere around 5th or so in my leagues back then - until the season that Polian complained about the Patriots mugging him, the league changing the pass interference rules around, and he set an NFL record for touchdowns.

I guess I agree that guys who started out sucking are likely to stay sucky, but look at Andy Dalton, who has SIX games with three or more interceptions in his first four seasons. Now compare that to Peyton Manning, who had SEVEN, Tom Brady who had five, and think about whether those guys ended up "elite".

There's so much that goes in to being an NFL quarterback that I don't think you can just look at a guy and say he's going to be great or he's going to suck. It's like before the NFL draft, we all think we know who's going to be good, but we're wrong at a 50% or worse clip. The same thing seems to be true once they're in the NFL - fans and analysts and even NFL teams are really terribly inaccurate at figuring out who's going to be elite and who isn't.

I think I could give you just about any set of stats and you wouldn't be able to figure out whether the guy ended up elite or not. We can use YPA, TD:INT, yards, pretty much any metric in a blind test and you won't know who is going to be great and who isn't. I can even tell you how things end up - like who's the best QB of this group, the guy who was 12th in career passing yards, or 13th? (Spoiler: that's Kerry Collins and Joe Montana). If our goal is to figure out who's going to be valuable in dynasty leagues, I think the answer is to constantly look for ways to add value to your team, and right now I think a guy like Dalton presents insane value for what he could end up doing for the rest of his career, which is only further evidenced by everyone telling me I'm wrong for thinking that.

 

[mr roboto]

QBs are not judged in conjunction with their situation and coaching nearly as much as other players. I've often wondered if guys that have flamed out would have turned out differently under better coaches or in better situations. But I guess if you get drafted in the first or second round and are asked to start in one of the first two years you don't really have much time to set a reputation for yourself as a passer.

Look at the conversation regarding Geno Smith and EJ Manuel. Neither quarterback was drafted by a great offensive team with a great offensive coach and neither quarterback was given even a full two years as the undisputed started to try to establish themselves. Then you have guys like Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco who have been given several years despite mediocre statistics because they were on good teams and had success in the beginning. Same thing with Mark Sanchez.

I'm not claiming that there are a bunch of quarterbacks who would have turned into elite players had they been given a greater chance, but one does wonder if there have been serviceable two very good quarterbacks whose careers have not glass and because the organization or weapons or coaching staff were not conducive to that developing.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I think the reason this isn't discussed more often here is how difficult it really is to predict QBs. Kurt Warner is probably going to the HOF and he was undrafted, cut by the Packers, played in the arena league for three years, and in Europe for another year. On top of that he needed an injury to Trent Green to win a starting job. Rich Gannon? He was 34 years old before he put up his first pro bowl season, and he had never had passed for 2500 yards in a season before that. Four pro bowls later, he's a HOF candidate.

So much of the position is mental. Peyton Manning is throwing wobbly duck passes in Denver, and is playing at a remarkably high level. You've got a lot of younger QBs throwing laser passes, and not being nearly as successful with them. I think the odds obviously are higher to hit with a first rounder like Tannehill or Bortles. But it could just as easily be Scott Tolzein.

Along the same lines as Dalton, I think you could look at Eli too. The Giants are a mess right now, but give them one more offseason with McAdoo's system, a revamped oline and a healthy Cruz, and he could put up career numbers in 2015. McAdoo's system seems to be really helping him quite a bit.

 

[FUBAR]

I'd throw another in for Cam. 2 top 5 years, and having a bad year he's 16th so not horrible. Plus he's only 25. Sure there is an injury risk, but he's a big guy so maybe not like Vick/RG3.

considering the lack of talent around him other than the rookie, this year is his floor.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

I think I could give you just about any set of stats and you wouldn't be able to figure out whether the guy ended up elite or not. We can use YPA, TD:INT, yards, pretty much any metric in a blind test and you won't know who is going to be great and who isn't. I can even tell you how things end up - like who's the best QB of this group, the guy who was 12th in career passing yards, or 13th? (Spoiler: that's Kerry Collins and Joe Montana). If our goal is to figure out who's going to be valuable in dynasty leagues, I think the answer is to constantly look for ways to add value to your team, and right now I think a guy like Dalton presents insane value for what he could end up doing for the rest of his career, which is only further evidenced by everyone telling me I'm wrong for thinking that.

As a one-size-fits-all number for QBs, it's tough to beat PFR's ANY/A+. Basically, it combines the key measures that correlate with passing success (completion %, yards, TDs, INTs, sacks) into a single figure, then weights each season's number against the league average for each season - thus taking into account the general grade inflation in passing numbers over the years.

The career leaders in ANY/A+ among active QBs are exactly who you'd expect: Manning and Rodgers (both at 126), then a big drop-off to Brady, Brees, Rivers, Romo, and Roeth in that order. Bringing up the rear (min. 1,500 attempts) are again who you'd expect: Sanchez, McCown, Bradford, Fitzpatrick, A. Smith. In general, there are no "elite" guys who aren't near the top of this list, and very few "non-elite" guys who are.

But, hey, this is supposed to be a predictive exercise. So: what if we restrict the query to the first 4 years of each QB's career? Well, among active QBs, here's how those top guys shook out (less Rodgers, who sat for 3 years so didn't have enough attempts to qualify):

* Romo - 121 (1st)
* Manning - 113 (2nd)
* Big Ben - 110 (5th)
* Rivers - 108 (6th)
* Brady - 105 (10th)

What this tells me is Brees (whose first four years were barely above league average) was somewhat of an outlier. Elite fantasy QBs are well-above average in ANY/A rating, almost by definition. More importantly, if you're going to be well-above average, it shows up in your stats relatively early - not always on Day 1, but certainly before Year 4.

So I'm selling the concept of Andy Dalton as the "next great QB". His first 4 years have yielded an ANY/A+ of 99 - basically league average. He's mirroring the career arc of Flacco and Cutler - good enough to always have an NFL starting gig, occasional flashes of greatness, but never the type who you'll be able to "set and forget" on your fantasy squad. Tannehill's numbers to date are even worse than Dalton's, though, as a converted WR playing behind a makeshift OL with far fewer weapons, he probably deserves a little more slack.

You know who I'm buying? The guys who are 3rd and 4th on this list - Nick Foles and Russell Wilson. And if I want an "insane value" option, I'd take Matt Ryan (who's tied with Rivers for 6th above, has a career figure of 107 and, by the way, is still in his 20s) well before Dalton.


P.S. Want to know who else is tied for 6th with Rivers and Matty Ice on that "first four years ANY/A+" table? Some guy named Kaepernick. So, hey, if you wanna swing for the fences ...

 

[bostonfred]

OK, challenge accepted. Let's use ANY/A+.

Dalton's rookie season he had an ANY/A+ of 97. His top receiver was AJ Green, and as every detractor in this thread has mentioned, he was force feeding the ball to AJ. He rated as a slightly below average QB.

His sophomore season he had an ANY/A+ of 97. See also: Dalton's rookie season.

Last year, Dalton had a second receiver emerge, who caught 10 TDs. He also had a new young tight end and a legitimate running back begin to emerge, as well. Dalton's ANY/A+ of 104 last year showed that he was above average - when he had a second weapon in the passing game. This year, that second weapon was hurt, and so was Eifert, and so was Gio. All kinds of bad injuries.

Yet during his first twelve games of this year, Dalton's ANY/A is actually HIGHER than it was in his first two seasons (5.76 vs. 5.65 and 5.68). Meaning that, while Dalton will probably finish the year at or below 100 ANY/A+, he's actually improved as a passer because he's putting up better numbers despite not having AJ Green for most of the season. And while it might sound laughable to say this is him playing "better", considering his two recent clunkers are so fresh in our memories, the reality is that an improved Dalton with a full complement of weapons has the potential to improve on his 2013 numbers, when he was a top 5 QB in the league.

And I think that's a surprisingly overlooked predictor of QB stats: who they're throwing to. Dalton's rookie year, he sucked, but he was close to the league average because he was throwing to an elite stud. Dalton's third year, he had improved his own skill, and the weapons around him had improved. This year, the weapons around him appears to be trending upwards, but in fact his top 5 targets (AJ, Marvin, Sanu, Eifert, Gio) have missed well over 30 of 60 possible games so far this season.

Let's see what happened to Matt Ryan's ANY/A+ when Julio and Roddy got hurt. Guess which year was last year: 105, 113, 114, 96. He went from well above average to below average overnight.

Let's see what happened to Tom Brady's ANY/A+ when Gronk got hurt, Hernandez got arrested, and Welker, Lloyd and Woodhead all left town: 128, 132, 120, 102. That's a massive drop - especially because we're talking about a stat based on standard deviations.

If you put Dalton on the 2013 Patriots, his ANY/A+ would be catastrophically bad. I'm not arguing otherwise. But as a fantasy GM, I don't care about that, because I don't have to start Dalton on the 2013 Patriots, and I do get to start him on a 2015 Bengals team that should feature a healthy AJ Green, but also Marvin Jones, Sanu, Eifert, Gio and Hill. Sanu starting slow sucked for the Bengals but it was great for Jones. Jones getting hurt sucked for the Benglas but it was great for Sanu. And Hill will likely have improved in pass blocking after his rookie season. This is an outstanding young nucleus of players that are all going to be around for a while. That's not something that shows up in previous years' ANY/A+, but it's a huge part of the reason I'm interested in him going forward.

But I said that I'd give you stats to tinker with, because I don't think we can predict his future success strictly using ANY/A+, so let's try. Here's Dalton's first four years: 97,97,104, TBD

Now let's compare them to these five QBs:

QB1 - Sat out,102, 105, and 107

QB2 - 79, 104, 96, 110

QB3 - 95, 81, 129, 106

QB4 - 103, 133, 97, 127

QB5 - 135, 98, 112, 85

Those are the first four years of some well known QBs. Some of them ended up good, others ended up bad. If ANY/A+ in the first four years is a good predictor of future success, which of those QBs do you think went on to have the most success? Which had the worst? I'll give you the first one - it's Tom Brady. Can you figure out which of the others would go on to be studs? Is there a pattern, like the year over year improvement shown by Brady? Is QB4's early high of 133 and low of 97 more or less predictive than the high of 129 and low of 81 put up by QB3?

 

[Tool]

OK, challenge accepted. Let's use ANY/A+.

Dalton's rookie season he had an ANY/A+ of 97. His top receiver was AJ Green, and as every detractor in this thread has mentioned, he was force feeding the ball to AJ. He rated as a slightly below average QB.

His sophomore season he had an ANY/A+ of 97. See also: Dalton's rookie season.

Last year, Dalton had a second receiver emerge, who caught 10 TDs. He also had a new young tight end and a legitimate running back begin to emerge, as well. Dalton's ANY/A+ of 104 last year showed that he was above average - when he had a second weapon in the passing game. This year, that second weapon was hurt, and so was Eifert, and so was Gio. All kinds of bad injuries.

Yet during his first twelve games of this year, Dalton's ANY/A is actually HIGHER than it was in his first two seasons (5.76 vs. 5.65 and 5.68). Meaning that, while Dalton will probably finish the year at or below 100 ANY/A+, he's actually improved as a passer because he's putting up better numbers despite not having AJ Green for most of the season. And while it might sound laughable to say this is him playing "better", considering his two recent clunkers are so fresh in our memories, the reality is that an improved Dalton with a full complement of weapons has the potential to improve on his 2013 numbers, when he was a top 5 QB in the league.

And I think that's a surprisingly overlooked predictor of QB stats: who they're throwing to. Dalton's rookie year, he sucked, but he was close to the league average because he was throwing to an elite stud. Dalton's third year, he had improved his own skill, and the weapons around him had improved. This year, the weapons around him appears to be trending upwards, but in fact his top 5 targets (AJ, Marvin, Sanu, Eifert, Gio) have missed well over 30 of 60 possible games so far this season.

Let's see what happened to Matt Ryan's ANY/A+ when Julio and Roddy got hurt. Guess which year was last year: 105, 113, 114, 96. He went from well above average to below average overnight.

Let's see what happened to Tom Brady's ANY/A+ when Gronk got hurt, Hernandez got arrested, and Welker, Lloyd and Woodhead all left town: 128, 132, 120, 102. That's a massive drop - especially because we're talking about a stat based on standard deviations.

If you put Dalton on the 2013 Patriots, his ANY/A+ would be catastrophically bad. I'm not arguing otherwise. But as a fantasy GM, I don't care about that, because I don't have to start Dalton on the 2013 Patriots, and I do get to start him on a 2015 Bengals team that should feature a healthy AJ Green, but also Marvin Jones, Sanu, Eifert, Gio and Hill. Sanu starting slow sucked for the Bengals but it was great for Jones. Jones getting hurt sucked for the Benglas but it was great for Sanu. And Hill will likely have improved in pass blocking after his rookie season. This is an outstanding young nucleus of players that are all going to be around for a while. That's not something that shows up in previous years' ANY/A+, but it's a huge part of the reason I'm interested in him going forward.

But I said that I'd give you stats to tinker with, because I don't think we can predict his future success strictly using ANY/A+, so let's try. Here's Dalton's first four years: 97,97,104, TBD

Now let's compare them to these five QBs:

QB1 - Sat out,102, 105, and 107

QB2 - 79, 104, 96, 110

QB3 - 95, 81, 129, 106

QB4 - 103, 133, 97, 127

QB5 - 135, 98, 112, 85

Those are the first four years of some well known QBs. Some of them ended up good, others ended up bad. If ANY/A+ in the first four years is a good predictor of future success, which of those QBs do you think went on to have the most success? Which had the worst? I'll give you the first one - it's Tom Brady. Can you figure out which of the others would go on to be studs? Is there a pattern, like the year over year improvement shown by Brady? Is QB4's early high of 133 and low of 97 more or less predictive than the high of 129 and low of 81 put up by QB3?

QB analysis is more than stats.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

I like 1:00 kickoff Andy Dalton. Not a fan of prime-time/playoffs Andy Dalton.

 

[djmich]

Liking Osweiler a lot as a cheap add with huge upside. Manning not looking good maybe he retires earlier than expected. Osweiler was a 2nd round pick despite needing time to develop...he's had time to develop. Would step into a great offense. Only thing is...I haven't seen him play.

 

[Bri]

Mettenberger

If we're talking FF, as OP stated, then he's similar to Jeff George (in a way) in that you can bank on significant yardage each week.

In NFL talk, sure we'd like this or that to happen with his development and we'd like him to actually have a line and running game but for just FF he's similar to George if you played FF back then

If they take Amari and if Justin Hunter finally produces like he's capable of....look out

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Mettenberger

If we're talking FF, as OP stated, then he's similar to Jeff George (in a way) in that you can bank on significant yardage each week.

In NFL talk, sure we'd like this or that to happen with his development and we'd like him to actually have a line and running game but for just FF he's similar to George if you played FF back then

If they take Amari and if Justin Hunter finally produces like he's capable of....look out

Isn't there a pretty decent chance they take Mariota or Winston? I think Mettenberger is under-rated since his injury caused him to drop in the draft, but I don't think Tenn is ready to hand the reins over to a sixth round pick. I'll defer to you on that though, as a fan of them team.

 

[Tau837]

The answer to the question in the thread title is Russell Wilson. I don't believe he is generally viewed as being a "great" fantasy QB today, though the word "great" is subject to interpretation. This seems to be supported by the fact that his ADP in 2014 was QB14.

Scoring systems vary, but using the FBG scoring system, Wilson finished as QB11 in 2012, QB9 in 2013, and is currently QB5 in 2014. He has outperformed his draft position each season so far.

Wilson has put up those fantasy finishes despite having a below average OL and set of receiving targets throughout his career to date. Seattle's WR corps currently consists of 4 UDFAs and 2 rookies, and he has played most of the season without #1 TE Miller and sometimes without #2 TE Willson. Last season, he expected to have Rice and Harvin all season and instead had Harvin for 1 game and Rice for 7 games. The point here is that it seems likely that the OL and receiving targets should improve going forward, which will boost his fantasy prospects.

There is also reason to believe Lynch will be gone after this season, or at most after one more season. Turbin and Michael are good prospects, but there is little reason to believe they will be able to produce like Lynch. That should inevitably lead to more reliance on Wilson, and thus more opportunity for him to put up more numbers.

Wilson already has great efficiency statistics:

- He has a career passer rating of 98.9, which is higher than Peyton Manning, Brady, and Brees. Brees has a 99.0 passer rating in New Orleans (excluding his seasons in San Diego). So Wilson's career passer rating is essentially equivalent to the elite stretch of Brees's career, most of which was with offensive mastermind Sean Payton.

- He has a career YPA of 7.9, again higher than Peyton Manning, Brady, and Brees.

- He has a career TD percentage of 5.9, same as Peyton and higher than Brady and Brees.

- He has a career interception percentage of 2.0, same as Brady and much better than Peyton and Brees.

- ANY/A+ was mentioned in the thread. Wilson's career ANY/A+ is 118, which is higher than Brees and Brady and behind Peyton's 122.

I mention those comparisons because Peyton, Brady, and Brees have been viewed to be in the tier of elite QBs for many years now. He has also frequently been compared to Brees since they are similar in size. Obviously, Wilson does not yet have the volume or years in his body of work of these other guys, but this illustrates the potential of Wilson as a passer.

Now consider some impressive facts about his performance thus far as an NFL QB:

1. Wilson is 39-13 (.750) in his NFL career (regular and postseason). In the 2 seasons under Carroll before he was drafted, Seattle was 14-18. The turnaround has not been just Wilson, but he obviously deserves a lot of credit for it. Tom Brady is the only QB in NFL history with a better winning percentage (min. 2 starts).

2. Seattle has only lost one game by more than 7 points with Wilson at QB -- they lost 21-30 @SD earlier this season, with SD kicking a FG with 20 seconds remaining to get to that final margin. So the Seahawks have won 75% of their games with Wilson at QB, and they have been in every single game.

3. Wilson has already led 13 game winning drives in his career. So he has led a game winning drive as often as the team has lost with him at QB.

Now consider what is known about his character and work ethic. Not only does he not have any off field issues, he is off the charts in intangibles.

Now consider he just turned 26 a few weeks ago. He hasn't even started his prime yet.

If you don't have him in your dynasty league, you should try hard to get him.

 

[Bri]

Mettenberger

If we're talking FF, as OP stated, then he's similar to Jeff George (in a way) in that you can bank on significant yardage each week.

In NFL talk, sure we'd like this or that to happen with his development and we'd like him to actually have a line and running game but for just FF he's similar to George if you played FF back then

If they take Amari and if Justin Hunter finally produces like he's capable of....look out

Isn't there a pretty decent chance they take Mariota or Winston? I think Mettenberger is under-rated since his injury caused him to drop in the draft, but I don't think Tenn is ready to hand the reins over to a sixth round pick. I'll defer to you on that though, as a fan of them team.

I would imagine fans are uncertain who the QB is and if the GM and Coach return as well.

Whisenhunt ripped the team apart and there's few players left so I like to envision a trade down for more players.

A rookie Qb almost always equals many losses while a 2nd year doesn't necessarily but...usually does too. I feel there's a very high probability Whisenhunt and Webster are not there in 2016 if they draft Mariotta. 2014 was starting over, 2015 is supposed to be headed toward something and not being the lions browns bengals of years ago.

I also think it's possible Wright, Hunter, and Sankey's development are dramatically impacted by another bad losing season in 2015. If they're in games, it could be different.

Munchak is gone a year and their lines stink. This was a source of pride for many many years. I can't imagine any scenario where their line coaches are retained. Whisenhunt probably needs to "take it" and not get worked up over that. As I see it, he's on super thin ice.

I think the fans will appreciate a name hire at OL moreso than you might imagine. A case could be made that much of their problems stem from their OL and either Mariotta or Mett would be helped by this.

They angered their fans and need to do something. We saw an O move the ball well and then switch to a running offense that stunk. We saw Hunter make a play or two and Wright light things up and...they gotta build on hope. Last year they had the luxury of new coach hype. I think a name hire at OL coach and Amari is exactly what the franchise needs. A top defensive player that makes plays (IE not a DT but excitement for fans) would work too.

I don't feel the love for either of these two QBs like so many other drafts, in fact I'm beginning to read more and more "they'll drop as the draft approaches" articles. Sankey was the top RB but he wasn't great so he went later than traditional studs. They can't repeat that at QB. We'll see, maybe one of them will be the talk of the town when the draft approaches and they'll bring their own hope.

 

[zftcg]

The answer to the question in the thread title is Russell Wilson. I don't believe he is generally viewed as being a "great" fantasy QB today, though the word "great" is subject to interpretation. This seems to be supported by the fact that his ADP in 2014 was QB14.

Was just thinking about this today. I'm hoping to target him in redraft next year. He's not as glamorous as the big names, but the running ensures a very high floor, and I could definitely see his passing stats get better and better. Only question is if everyone picks up on that and it becomes impossible to get him at a discount. I usually like to go after QBs in the 4th round, which means I miss out on the Rodgers/Mannings but get guys like Romo or Stafford (in previous years) or Brady (this year). If I get Wilson in the 3rd or 4th next year, I'd be very happy.

Also, I don't know if I feel confident enough to bet my team on him (I tend to be a one-QB kind of guy), but I could see Bridgewater making the leap next year. He's really come on strong at the end of this year, and you have to assume his weapons will be better (both McKinnon and Johnson look promising).

 

[mr roboto]

I'll second Teddy. I like where the Vikings organization is going and Norv really speaks highly of the kid. He's mobile enough to get a few rushing scores every year.

 

[FUBAR]

Am I alone in the Mettenbeger love? Elite might be a stretch, but I could see him attaining some Big Ben type seasons if he stays in.

The last part is the biggest question.

It wouldn't be a shock to see metz behind a rookie or cutler.

 

[Freelove]

A raft full of Wilson's various passing efficiency stats are completely irrelevant to his fantasy value. As a passer, he possesses way below average fantasy value. He's Alex Smith with maybe a little more of a conservative mindset.

He has value only because he's a running QB. If you believe this year's historically great rushing stats are sustainable, then he has elite dynasty value. I'm selling on that premise.

I do think he'll continue to be "startable," since he'll always run well enough. But below average passing production plus good-but-not-great rushing would continue to make him the borderline starter he always had been till this year. More production like this nearly 1000 yard rushing pace would make him a dynasty steal (just as he was a redraft steal this year), but I see no way he can continue that over the long haul.

I think his long-term projection ought to be seen in the lower half of QB1 range, which is nothing to sneeze at, but isn't worth moving mountains to acquire, either.

 

[Tau837]

A raft full of Wilson's various passing efficiency stats are completely irrelevant to his fantasy value. As a passer, he possesses way below average fantasy value. He's Alex Smith with maybe a little more of a conservative mindset.

He has value only because he's a running QB. If you believe this year's historically great rushing stats are sustainable, then he has elite dynasty value. I'm selling on that premise.

I do think he'll continue to be "startable," since he'll always run well enough. But below average passing production plus good-but-not-great rushing would continue to make him the borderline starter he always had been till this year. More production like this nearly 1000 yard rushing pace would make him a dynasty steal (just as he was a redraft steal this year), but I see no way he can continue that over the long haul.

I think his long-term projection ought to be seen in the lower half of QB1 range, which is nothing to sneeze at, but isn't worth moving mountains to acquire, either.

The bolded statement is way off base IMO, not just for Wilson, but in general for identifying potential before it breaks out.

As for Wilson, you seem to be saying he is and will always be a below average passer who will be propped up by whatever rushing numbers he can produce. Can you confirm that? Because IMO that statement is going to seem pretty laughable inside of two seasons.

 

[Sabertooth]

I still have faith in Cam Newton. Had played with a weak recieving corps and pretty mediocre rushing attack and still ended up as QB9 in PPG.

I think he had the weakest support staff of any TOP 12 QB.

 

[thatguy]

A raft full of Wilson's various passing efficiency stats are completely irrelevant to his fantasy value. As a passer, he possesses way below average fantasy value. He's Alex Smith with maybe a little more of a conservative mindset.

He has value only because he's a running QB. If you believe this year's historically great rushing stats are sustainable, then he has elite dynasty value. I'm selling on that premise.

I do think he'll continue to be "startable," since he'll always run well enough. But below average passing production plus good-but-not-great rushing would continue to make him the borderline starter he always had been till this year. More production like this nearly 1000 yard rushing pace would make him a dynasty steal (just as he was a redraft steal this year), but I see no way he can continue that over the long haul.

I think his long-term projection ought to be seen in the lower half of QB1 range, which is nothing to sneeze at, but isn't worth moving mountains to acquire, either.

Sell on Wilson at your own Peril. Just don't be surprised when he goes all Drew Brees on everyone's ###. It will happen.

 

[Bayhawks]

A raft full of Wilson's various passing efficiency stats are completely irrelevant to his fantasy value. As a passer, he possesses way below average fantasy value. He's Alex Smith with maybe a little more of a conservative mindset.

He has value only because he's a running QB. If you believe this year's historically great rushing stats are sustainable, then he has elite dynasty value. I'm selling on that premise.

I do think he'll continue to be "startable," since he'll always run well enough. But below average passing production plus good-but-not-great rushing would continue to make him the borderline starter he always had been till this year. More production like this nearly 1000 yard rushing pace would make him a dynasty steal (just as he was a redraft steal this year), but I see no way he can continue that over the long haul.

I think his long-term projection ought to be seen in the lower half of QB1 range, which is nothing to sneeze at, but isn't worth moving mountains to acquire, either.

Sell on Wilson at your own Peril. Just don't be surprised when he goes all Drew Brees on everyone's ###. It will happen.

By "goes all Drew Brees," you mean he's going to average like 125 more attempts in a season? Because a large part of Brees' FF value has been that he throws the ball, A LOT.

I understand that Lynch is getting older, might be exiting Seattle, but do you really think the Seahawks are going to abandon their run-based offense to the extreme that would let Wilson "go all Drew Brees?"

 

[mr roboto]

A raft full of Wilson's various passing efficiency stats are completely irrelevant to his fantasy value. As a passer, he possesses way below average fantasy value. He's Alex Smith with maybe a little more of a conservative mindset.

He has value only because he's a running QB. If you believe this year's historically great rushing stats are sustainable, then he has elite dynasty value. I'm selling on that premise.

I do think he'll continue to be "startable," since he'll always run well enough. But below average passing production plus good-but-not-great rushing would continue to make him the borderline starter he always had been till this year. More production like this nearly 1000 yard rushing pace would make him a dynasty steal (just as he was a redraft steal this year), but I see no way he can continue that over the long haul.

I think his long-term projection ought to be seen in the lower half of QB1 range, which is nothing to sneeze at, but isn't worth moving mountains to acquire, either.

Sell on Wilson at your own Peril. Just don't be surprised when he goes all Drew Brees on everyone's ###. It will happen.

By "goes all Drew Brees," you mean he's going to average like 125 more attempts in a season? Because a large part of Brees' FF value has been that he throws the ball, A LOT. I understand that Lynch is getting older, might be exiting Seattle, but do you really think the Seahawks are going to abandon their run-based offense to the extreme that would let Wilson "go all Drew Brees?"

This is a good counterpoint but I personally believe that as he progresses he will command an offense like Brees, Manning, Rodgers. Maybe not the same attempts but they will increase as he develops. He's smart enough to be the o-coordinator on the field.

 

[Bri]

Am I alone in the Mettenbeger love? Elite might be a stretch, but I could see him attaining some Big Ben type seasons if he stays in.

The last part is the biggest question.

It wouldn't be a shock to see metz behind a rookie or cutler.

Since he's been practicing this week, if he doesn't play, I think that means (as long as Whisenhunt stays) he will be behind someone next year. Whisenhunt even said he practiced well and...maybe it's just using the teenie bit of smoke n mirrors a bad team decimated by injuries can possibly use leading up to a game and he starts, but if he doesn't play I think that's sending a big giant message

ETA now it's been changed to they don't want to risk him so I guess the message isn't there anymore

 

[Slapdash]

Concern on Wilson is that his rushing stats stay at such a high level. He has the 15th highest rushing yardage in the league with almost 270 yards more than the nearest QB. That is much higher than previous years, and the 6 TDs is pretty high too. There is likely some regression at play in the coming years. Also, if they throw more, we will probably see less rushing attempts.

 

[Biabreakable]

Honestly I am not sure if Russell Wilson qualifies for the topic of this thread. In PFR for fantasy he has finished 9th, 8th and is currently 3rd for all QBs. Wilson has already arrived as a top 12 QB.

Teddy Bridgewater has over 70% completion percentage over the past 4 games. He keeps showing improvement with every game. I think he is a good bet to join the Qb1 group (top 12) in years ahead.

 

[lod01]

Conner Shaw.......and Chase Daniel. At least the NFL hopes they are. Getting pretty thin at the position.

 

[Tau837]

A raft full of Wilson's various passing efficiency stats are completely irrelevant to his fantasy value. As a passer, he possesses way below average fantasy value. He's Alex Smith with maybe a little more of a conservative mindset.

He has value only because he's a running QB. If you believe this year's historically great rushing stats are sustainable, then he has elite dynasty value. I'm selling on that premise.

I do think he'll continue to be "startable," since he'll always run well enough. But below average passing production plus good-but-not-great rushing would continue to make him the borderline starter he always had been till this year. More production like this nearly 1000 yard rushing pace would make him a dynasty steal (just as he was a redraft steal this year), but I see no way he can continue that over the long haul.

I think his long-term projection ought to be seen in the lower half of QB1 range, which is nothing to sneeze at, but isn't worth moving mountains to acquire, either.

Sell on Wilson at your own Peril. Just don't be surprised when he goes all Drew Brees on everyone's ###. It will happen.

By "goes all Drew Brees," you mean he's going to average like 125 more attempts in a season? Because a large part of Brees' FF value has been that he throws the ball, A LOT. I understand that Lynch is getting older, might be exiting Seattle, but do you really think the Seahawks are going to abandon their run-based offense to the extreme that would let Wilson "go all Drew Brees?"

Limiting discussion to the next three years only, since it is too difficult to project beyond that:

1. Many key players will have to get paid or move on. 41 players are currently set to become free agents by the end of the 2016 season, including Wilson, Lynch, Unger, Okung, Baldwin, Wagner, and Irvin. Wilson, Wagner, and Unger will get big contracts, and I also expect Okung and Baldwin to stay, though for more moderate prices (hard to let the two of them go from units that are already subpar). Not as sure about Irvin. I expect Lynch to be gone after at most 1-2 more seasons. The biggest possible impact here is likely not losing key players but rather losing depth, particularly at RB and on defense (e.g., DL).

2. It seems very likely the team will continue to try to upgrade its receiving targets. To some degree this will happen with more experience for young players like Richardson, Norwood, and Willson. But the team tried to address it with Harvin and then later tried to trade for Cameron or Julius Thomas, so it seems they are unlikely to be content to continue forward with just the core targets they currently have. Wilson has played with subpar targets for his entire career to date.

3. It seems very likely the team will try to upgrade its OL. Wilson has played with a subpar OL for his entire career to date.

4. It seems very likely that Lynch will go away, whether due to free agency, retirement, or simply getting benched as his performance inevitably drops off. It seems pretty unlikely that his production will be matched by Michael and/or Turbin. It's possible but odds are against it. Of course, the team could potentially try to add a RB, too, so there is some uncertainty in this area.

With all of that, IMO it is very likely the Seahawks will increase their passing attempts, and sooner or later by a lot. And better targets could offset a drop in efficiency with increased volume.

How do you see it? Are you suggesting that the Seahawks offense will be the same 3+ years from now as it is now?

 

[FUBAR]

I still have faith in Cam Newton. Had played with a weak recieving corps and pretty mediocre rushing attack and still ended up as QB9 in PPG.

I think he had the weakest support staff of any TOP 12 QB.

Yep.

I'll buy from anyone selling. (Unless I have luck or Wilson)

 

[cjv123]

Honestly I am not sure if Russell Wilson qualifies for the topic of this thread. In PFR for fantasy he has finished 9th, 8th and is currently 3rd for all QBs. Wilson has already arrived as a top 12 QB.

Teddy Bridgewater has over 70% completion percentage over the past 4 games. He keeps showing improvement with every game. I think he is a good bet to join the Qb1 group (top 12) in years ahead.

Wilson has arrived in the real world of fantasy scoring. But to some, who either never watch him play or choose to be blind, he remains somehow only his legs. He's a thrower first and second, a runner third, and the Brees comparison is apropo.

I believe the Titans tanked this year, Whisenhunt deliberately keeping them from inadvertently winning games later in the year. You don't do this to draft a non-QB. Either they take Mariota or they trade the pick (probably the smarter thing to do). I believe Winston has a better skill set but I believe Mariota goes first due to this off-the-charts intangibles. All of this is my reason I doubt Mariota makes it to TB. But IF Mariota somehow makes it to TB at #2, or TB trades up to #1, then having Evans and VJax and ASJ to throw to, I put him a QB1 right out of the gate.

I'm also a huge fan of Connor Cook at the next level, and hope my Texans are able to draft him.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

In terms of college guys, I think Goff has a shot and I still really like Hackenberg, although I understand most have cooled on him. I think he can end up somewhere between Cutler and Stafford. Not sure if that's "Elite" though.

 

[Bayhawks]

A raft full of Wilson's various passing efficiency stats are completely irrelevant to his fantasy value. As a passer, he possesses way below average fantasy value. He's Alex Smith with maybe a little more of a conservative mindset.

He has value only because he's a running QB. If you believe this year's historically great rushing stats are sustainable, then he has elite dynasty value. I'm selling on that premise.

I do think he'll continue to be "startable," since he'll always run well enough. But below average passing production plus good-but-not-great rushing would continue to make him the borderline starter he always had been till this year. More production like this nearly 1000 yard rushing pace would make him a dynasty steal (just as he was a redraft steal this year), but I see no way he can continue that over the long haul.

I think his long-term projection ought to be seen in the lower half of QB1 range, which is nothing to sneeze at, but isn't worth moving mountains to acquire, either.

Sell on Wilson at your own Peril. Just don't be surprised when he goes all Drew Brees on everyone's ###. It will happen.

By "goes all Drew Brees," you mean he's going to average like 125 more attempts in a season? Because a large part of Brees' FF value has been that he throws the ball, A LOT. I understand that Lynch is getting older, might be exiting Seattle, but do you really think the Seahawks are going to abandon their run-based offense to the extreme that would let Wilson "go all Drew Brees?"

Limiting discussion to the next three years only, since it is too difficult to project beyond that:

1. Many key players will have to get paid or move on. 41 players are currently set to become free agents by the end of the 2016 season, including Wilson, Lynch, Unger, Okung, Baldwin, Wagner, and Irvin. Wilson, Wagner, and Unger will get big contracts, and I also expect Okung and Baldwin to stay, though for more moderate prices (hard to let the two of them go from units that are already subpar). Not as sure about Irvin. I expect Lynch to be gone after at most 1-2 more seasons. The biggest possible impact here is likely not losing key players but rather losing depth, particularly at RB and on defense (e.g., DL).

2. It seems very likely the team will continue to try to upgrade its receiving targets. To some degree this will happen with more experience for young players like Richardson, Norwood, and Willson. But the team tried to address it with Harvin and then later tried to trade for Cameron or Julius Thomas, so it seems they are unlikely to be content to continue forward with just the core targets they currently have. Wilson has played with subpar targets for his entire career to date.

3. It seems very likely the team will try to upgrade its OL. Wilson has played with a subpar OL for his entire career to date.

4. It seems very likely that Lynch will go away, whether due to free agency, retirement, or simply getting benched as his performance inevitably drops off. It seems pretty unlikely that his production will be matched by Michael and/or Turbin. It's possible but odds are against it. Of course, the team could potentially try to add a RB, too, so there is some uncertainty in this area.

With all of that, IMO it is very likely the Seahawks will increase their passing attempts, and sooner or later by a lot. And better targets could offset a drop in efficiency with increased volume.

How do you see it? Are you suggesting that the Seahawks offense will be the same 3+ years from now as it is now?

For Wilson to become "like Brees," some significant changes had to happen. Brees left SD, went to NO where the offense was much different, with a coach who was much more pass-oriented. It's easier to change teams, become surrounded with different players, and get a new offense than to change personell, AND have a coach change his "style."

Bevell has never thrown the ball more than 555 times as on OC. Seattle's line is better at run-blocking than pass blocking. Seattle doesn't have the receiving threats. Adding to their O-line, AND adding receiving threats via the draft (since they are going to be strapped for cash, thus the reason they could lose FA's) will take time, and doing both will take even more time.

So, you've got 3 things to do, none of which are easy:

1-Have your OC change his offensive style, or change OCs

2-Get better at O-line

3-Get better receiving threats

I don't see this being a quick process, thus in the 3-year window you've laid out, I see it as being very difficult for Wilson to become "like Brees."

Brees didn't have to go through that process. He switched teams. He went to a team with some receiving threats, and OC who favored the passing game, and his production changed much more quickly.

You suggest limiting discussion to the next 3 years, I think that if the Seahawks do what you suggest (improve their O-line, receiving threats, change their offense to more pass-focused), they will NEED about 3 years.

 

[Bayhawks]

Wilson has arrived in the real world of fantasy scoring. But to some, who either never watch him play or choose to be blind, he remains somehow only his legs. He's a thrower first and second, a runner third, and the Brees comparison is apropo.

No, it's really not. Other than their height, what do Wilson and Brees have in common? Pass-friendly offense? Not at this time. Pass-minded OC/HC? Nope. Great receiving threats? Nope? O-line adept at pass-blocking (prior to this year in NO)? Nope.

Brees is a valuable FF QB because of the volume of his pass attempts (as well as his success with those attempts). Wilson is a valuable FF QB because of his rushing numbers. They are both top FF QBs right now, but for completely different reasons. The comparison between the two seems to be baseless, as far as I can tell. Anyone who has suggested they should be compared has not supported that comparison, or points to how Seattle MIGHT/COULD/SHOULD change, offensively speaking. While that might turn out to be true, it isn't right now, and there's no more reason to think an attempt to change will be successful.

 

[lod01]

In terms of college guys, I think Goff has a shot and I still really like Hackenberg, although I understand most have cooled on him. I think he can end up somewhere between Cutler and Stafford. Not sure if that's "Elite" though.

Goff looks the part. Needs to stay all 4 years though.

 

[zftcg]

How much longer do you think Bevell will be there? I could see him getting a HC job either this year or next. Yes, the Seahawks' deep playoff runs make it harder for teams to wait, but you have to assume his track record pays off eventually.

Regardless of how it happens, put me in the camp that believes Wilson's pass attempts will go up, if not to Brees levels than at least enough to make him an elite passer.

 

[Tau837]

A raft full of Wilson's various passing efficiency stats are completely irrelevant to his fantasy value. As a passer, he possesses way below average fantasy value. He's Alex Smith with maybe a little more of a conservative mindset.

He has value only because he's a running QB. If you believe this year's historically great rushing stats are sustainable, then he has elite dynasty value. I'm selling on that premise.

I do think he'll continue to be "startable," since he'll always run well enough. But below average passing production plus good-but-not-great rushing would continue to make him the borderline starter he always had been till this year. More production like this nearly 1000 yard rushing pace would make him a dynasty steal (just as he was a redraft steal this year), but I see no way he can continue that over the long haul.

I think his long-term projection ought to be seen in the lower half of QB1 range, which is nothing to sneeze at, but isn't worth moving mountains to acquire, either.

Sell on Wilson at your own Peril. Just don't be surprised when he goes all Drew Brees on everyone's ###. It will happen.

By "goes all Drew Brees," you mean he's going to average like 125 more attempts in a season? Because a large part of Brees' FF value has been that he throws the ball, A LOT. I understand that Lynch is getting older, might be exiting Seattle, but do you really think the Seahawks are going to abandon their run-based offense to the extreme that would let Wilson "go all Drew Brees?"

Limiting discussion to the next three years only, since it is too difficult to project beyond that:

1. Many key players will have to get paid or move on. 41 players are currently set to become free agents by the end of the 2016 season, including Wilson, Lynch, Unger, Okung, Baldwin, Wagner, and Irvin. Wilson, Wagner, and Unger will get big contracts, and I also expect Okung and Baldwin to stay, though for more moderate prices (hard to let the two of them go from units that are already subpar). Not as sure about Irvin. I expect Lynch to be gone after at most 1-2 more seasons. The biggest possible impact here is likely not losing key players but rather losing depth, particularly at RB and on defense (e.g., DL).

2. It seems very likely the team will continue to try to upgrade its receiving targets. To some degree this will happen with more experience for young players like Richardson, Norwood, and Willson. But the team tried to address it with Harvin and then later tried to trade for Cameron or Julius Thomas, so it seems they are unlikely to be content to continue forward with just the core targets they currently have. Wilson has played with subpar targets for his entire career to date.

3. It seems very likely the team will try to upgrade its OL. Wilson has played with a subpar OL for his entire career to date.

4. It seems very likely that Lynch will go away, whether due to free agency, retirement, or simply getting benched as his performance inevitably drops off. It seems pretty unlikely that his production will be matched by Michael and/or Turbin. It's possible but odds are against it. Of course, the team could potentially try to add a RB, too, so there is some uncertainty in this area.

With all of that, IMO it is very likely the Seahawks will increase their passing attempts, and sooner or later by a lot. And better targets could offset a drop in efficiency with increased volume.

How do you see it? Are you suggesting that the Seahawks offense will be the same 3+ years from now as it is now?

For Wilson to become "like Brees," some significant changes had to happen. Brees left SD, went to NO where the offense was much different, with a coach who was much more pass-oriented. It's easier to change teams, become surrounded with different players, and get a new offense than to change personell, AND have a coach change his "style." Bevell has never thrown the ball more than 555 times as on OC. Seattle's line is better at run-blocking than pass blocking. Seattle doesn't have the receiving threats. Adding to their O-line, AND adding receiving threats via the draft (since they are going to be strapped for cash, thus the reason they could lose FA's) will take time, and doing both will take even more time.

So, you've got 3 things to do, none of which are easy:

1-Have your OC change his offensive style, or change OCs

2-Get better at O-line

3-Get better receiving threats

I don't see this being a quick process, thus in the 3-year window you've laid out, I see it as being very difficult for Wilson to become "like Brees."

Brees didn't have to go through that process. He switched teams. He went to a team with some receiving threats, and OC who favored the passing game, and his production changed much more quickly.

You suggest limiting discussion to the next 3 years, I think that if the Seahawks do what you suggest (improve their O-line, receiving threats, change their offense to more pass-focused), they will NEED about 3 years.

You didn't answer my question. Do you think the Seahawks offense will change over the next 3 years? If so, change how? More or less passing attempts? More or less passing success? I think the answers are obvious.

So it becomes a matter of the degree of improvement. Given that improvement will be centered around a QB with great skills and intangibles, I think you are likely underselling that degree.

It is probably unlikely that Wilson will match Brees's recent season pass attempts in 2017. But his rushing isn't likely to drop to zero either. IMO it is likely that Wilson will be a top 5 QB most of the next several seasons.

 

[cstu]

Don't forget to mention Dalton took one of the cheapest franchises in the league to the playoffs 4 consecutive times(his whole career) as well. What were the Bengals before he was drafted and made the probowl his rookie season? Guys that get praised like Cutler can't even do that in the most advantageous circumstances.Did you guys not see Tannehill vs the Jets? They have the worst pass defense in the history of the league. He barely topped 200 yards and should have throw like 3 INTs. He's not emerging into anything.

and tannehills vision is awful, tons of replays showing landry & wallace wide open and tanny just flat out dont see em

Poor vision or afraid to make the throw?

 

[Gandalf]

I think the reason this isn't discussed more often here is how difficult it really is to predict QBs. Kurt Warner is probably going to the HOF and he was undrafted, cut by the Packers, played in the arena league for three years, and in Europe for another year. On top of that he needed an injury to Trent Green to win a starting job. Rich Gannon? He was 34 years old before he put up his first pro bowl season, and he had never had passed for 2500 yards in a season before that. Four pro bowls later, he's a HOF candidate.

So much of the position is mental. Peyton Manning is throwing wobbly duck passes in Denver, and is playing at a remarkably high level. You've got a lot of younger QBs throwing laser passes, and not being nearly as successful with them. I think the odds obviously are higher to hit with a first rounder like Tannehill or Bortles. But it could just as easily be Scott Tolzein.

Along the same lines as Dalton, I think you could look at Eli too. The Giants are a mess right now, but give them one more offseason with McAdoo's system, a revamped oline and a healthy Cruz, and he could put up career numbers in 2015. McAdoo's system seems to be really helping him quite a bit.

You are right. Most important part of a QBs success is what is between their helmet and their work ethic. It's why I think Mariota could be great despite playing in a gimmick offense.

 

[Donnybrook]

Mettenberger

If we're talking FF, as OP stated, then he's similar to Jeff George (in a way) in that you can bank on significant yardage each week.

In NFL talk, sure we'd like this or that to happen with his development and we'd like him to actually have a line and running game but for just FF he's similar to George if you played FF back then

If they take Amari and if Justin Hunter finally produces like he's capable of....look out

Good play if your team has numerous injured reserve spots open.

 

[Bri]

Honestly I am not sure if Russell Wilson qualifies for the topic of this thread. In PFR for fantasy he has finished 9th, 8th and is currently 3rd for all QBs. Wilson has already arrived as a top 12 QB.

Teddy Bridgewater has over 70% completion percentage over the past 4 games. He keeps showing improvement with every game. I think he is a good bet to join the Qb1 group (top 12) in years ahead.

This is what I was thinking.

I don't think the Seahawks care that they have a super 1500 yard 15 TD WR or not. There's been plenty of championship teams that just wanted good reliable types and that's all they seem to want.

It feels like Wilson never throws for 300 yards and beats anyone with an aerial assault game but they're not asking him to be Dan Fouts, but more Phil Simms.

Teddy...I think the Vikes have not done well with WRs. Simpson was probably fine IF IF he was just depth. Nothing wrong with veteran depth at 3rd or 4th WR. Coradelle is a bust and I (always do) totally blame them for not developing him. With that talent, you pay Jerry Rice 10 mil to follow him around and teach him if you need to. Jennings I never liked and seemed limited and he's the same in Minny. They need to get Teddy a couple WRs and either have a definitive plan with Patterson and his own WR coach or trade him.

They need a TE because Rudolph may or may not be awesome and they can be had late in drafts so we're talking a minimal investment backup plan.

 

[Biabreakable]

As far as the question of if/when Wilson will get more passing attempts needed to become a elite level passing Qb, I think that has already been discussed last season, but I see some still do not believe.

This position that Wilson will never become a elite passer due to the situation around him, is the same argument made about Big Ben many years ago. Ben played for the Steelers who ran an even more run oriented offense than the Seahawks do. People said he would never be more than a game manager type of QB. Ben did not perform at as high of a level as Wilson did in his early years with the Steelers. Ben didn't have over 300 passing attempts until his 3rd season. He had Bill Cowhler as his HC and the Steelers do not make HC changes as often as most teams. Yet sure enough as time went on they built their team around their QB and Ben started to have much more passing attempts later on in his career than what he was asked to do early on.

I believe the same transition will happen with Wilson over time. He is doing extremely well as a dual threat QB right now because he can. As he gets older he will run the ball less and become more prolific as a passer.

 

[Tau837]

As far as the question of if/when Wilson will get more passing attempts needed to become a elite level passing Qb, I think that has already been discussed last season, but I see some still do not believe.

This position that Wilson will never become a elite passer due to the situation around him, is the same argument made about Big Ben many years ago. Ben played for the Steelers who ran an even more run oriented offense than the Seahawks do. People said he would never be more than a game manager type of QB. Ben did not perform at as high of a level as Wilson did in his early years with the Steelers. Ben didn't have over 300 passing attempts until his 3rd season. He had Bill Cowhler as his HC and the Steelers do not make HC changes as often as most teams. Yet sure enough as time went on they built their team around their QB and Ben started to have much more passing attempts later on in his career than what he was asked to do early on.

I believe the same transition will happen with Wilson over time. He is doing extremely well as a dual threat QB right now because he can. As he gets older he will run the ball less and become more prolific as a passer.

 

[East Coast Bias]

Eli Manning if Beckham has a say in it.

 

[az_prof]

I honestly don't see any of the young QBs challenging Luck for the best fantasy QB. I do think Teddy Bridgewater has a good chance to become a top 10 QB and possibly top 3 some day if the Vikings give him some help. I think Wilson is what he is at this point--a great game manager and a very good fantasy QB, but not elite.

Not much talk about Tannenhill but he has quietly worked his way into top 10 of fantasy this year. Could he take another step next year?

 

[Freelove]

As far as the question of if/when Wilson will get more passing attempts needed to become a elite level passing Qb, I think that has already been discussed last season, but I see some still do not believe.

This position that Wilson will never become a elite passer due to the situation around him, is the same argument made about Big Ben many years ago. Ben played for the Steelers who ran an even more run oriented offense than the Seahawks do. People said he would never be more than a game manager type of QB. Ben did not perform at as high of a level as Wilson did in his early years with the Steelers. Ben didn't have over 300 passing attempts until his 3rd season. He had Bill Cowhler as his HC and the Steelers do not make HC changes as often as most teams. Yet sure enough as time went on they built their team around their QB and Ben started to have much more passing attempts later on in his career than what he was asked to do early on.

I believe the same transition will happen with Wilson over time. He is doing extremely well as a dual threat QB right now because he can. As he gets older he will run the ball less and become more prolific as a passer.

Ben has ten times the arm Wilson will ever possess. Uness Russ finds his way into a modern incarnstion of the WCO, he simply doesn't possess the physical tools to make that same kind of radical career transition.Ben's longballs are straight out of the 1970's. Russ's, when he's forced to throw them, are jump balls. That's one of the big reasons SEA is 0-and-whatever when the opposition puts more than 24 point on the board -- he lacks big play ability with his arm.

Nothing wrong with that, as you'd be nuts to pair that D and running game with a gunslinger.

He's perfect for SEA because he knows his limitations and plays safely within them. He's legitimately great at what he is. We don't need to keep pretending he's something else.

If he continues like this, he's Cam Newton with a better hesd on his shoulders. You could do a lot worse.

 

[Biabreakable]

Darrell Bevel does run a modern version of the WCO. It is an offense that emphasizes the running game more than other versions have. They have incorperated more read option elements to the offense as well, but for the most part it is the same WCO he was running with the Vikings.

I don't think Wilson lacks arm strength needed to be a top NFL passer. Furthermore I do not think that is a necessary trait for a QB to have and certainly not a priority compared to field awareness, accuracy, ball placement, instincts, pocket presence, the ability to avoid the pass rush as well as timing. These are things Wilson and Bridgewater have.

There are some throws that require a lot of arm strength such as the deep out, but arm strength is pretty low on the list of things that make a great QB. That said I haven't really seen Wilson struggle due to a lack of arm strength.

 

[Tau837]

Ben has ten times the arm Wilson will ever possess...

Ben's longballs are straight out of the 1970's. Russ's, when he's forced to throw them, are jump balls... he lacks big play ability with his arm.

I'd be interested to see objective evidence that supports your viewpoint. Because the only objective evidence I am aware of shows the opposite.

PFF considers deep passes to be all passes targeted 20+ yards downfield (i.e., thrown in the air 20+ yards beyond the LOS). Per PFF, here are their deep passing numbers over the past 3 seasons, since Wilson entered the league:

Roethlisberger:

66 completions in 199 deep attempts (33.2%) for 2229 yards (11.2 YPA), 21 TDs (10.6%), 12 interceptions (6.0%), 9 drops

199 deep attempts in 1602 total attempts = 12.4% deep attempts

PFF deep passing accuracy = (66+9)/199 = 37.7% (giving credit for drops)

Wilson:

74 completions in 174 deep attempts (42.5%) for 2544 yards (14.6 YPA), 23 TDs (13.2%), 13 interceptions (7.4%), 8 drops

174 deep attempts in 1227 total attempts = 14.2% deep attempts

PFF deep passing accuracy = (74+8)/174 = 47.1% (giving credit for drops)

So Wilson has:

- Attempted a higher percentage of deep passes

- Completed more passes on fewer attempts, and thus higher completion and accuracy percentages

- Thrown for more yards on fewer attempts, and thus higher YPA

- Thrown for more TDs on fewer attempts, and thus higher TD percentage

And he has done that with a less talented set of deep targets.

The only statistic that favors Roethlisberger is interception percentage, but it isn't a significant gap there, and it certainly doesn't offset everything else noted above.

But -- wait -- Wilson just throws jump balls, right?

 

[Donnybrook]

Honestly I am not sure if Russell Wilson qualifies for the topic of this thread. In PFR for fantasy he has finished 9th, 8th and is currently 3rd for all QBs. Wilson has already arrived as a top 12 QB.

Teddy Bridgewater has over 70% completion percentage over the past 4 games. He keeps showing improvement with every game. I think he is a good bet to join the Qb1 group (top 12) in years ahead.

This is what I was thinking.

I don't think the Seahawks care that they have a super 1500 yard 15 TD WR or not. There's been plenty of championship teams that just wanted good reliable types and that's all they seem to want.

It feels like Wilson never throws for 300 yards and beats anyone with an aerial assault game but they're not asking him to be Dan Fouts, but more Phil Simms.

Teddy...I think the Vikes have not done well with WRs. Simpson was probably fine IF IF he was just depth. Nothing wrong with veteran depth at 3rd or 4th WR. Coradelle is a bust and I (always do) totally blame them for not developing him. With that talent, you pay Jerry Rice 10 mil to follow him around and teach him if you need to. Jennings I never liked and seemed limited and he's the same in Minny. They need to get Teddy a couple WRs and either have a definitive plan with Patterson and his own WR coach or trade him.

They need a TE because Rudolph may or may not be awesome and they can be had late in drafts so we're talking a minimal investment backup plan.

Hard to take anything you say seriously when you don't even know that Simpson didn't even make the Vikings 53 man roster.

 

[zftcg]

As far as the question of if/when Wilson will get more passing attempts needed to become a elite level passing Qb, I think that has already been discussed last season, but I see some still do not believe.

This position that Wilson will never become a elite passer due to the situation around him, is the same argument made about Big Ben many years ago. Ben played for the Steelers who ran an even more run oriented offense than the Seahawks do. People said he would never be more than a game manager type of QB. Ben did not perform at as high of a level as Wilson did in his early years with the Steelers. Ben didn't have over 300 passing attempts until his 3rd season. He had Bill Cowhler as his HC and the Steelers do not make HC changes as often as most teams. Yet sure enough as time went on they built their team around their QB and Ben started to have much more passing attempts later on in his career than what he was asked to do early on.

I believe the same transition will happen with Wilson over time. He is doing extremely well as a dual threat QB right now because he can. As he gets older he will run the ball less and become more prolific as a passer.

What about Brady? I won't pretend I can analyze the similarities at any depth, but he certainly started out his career as a game manager who made the best of so-so weapons and rode a great defense to Super Bowls, before morphing into something very different later in his career.

My general sense is that just about anyone who starts at QB in the NFL is capable of putting up a 300/3/0 game (look at Lindley today, or Alex Smith in last year's wildcard). Obviously, the great ones will do it more consistently. Still, I'm inherently skeptical of claims that certain guys will never be more than a game manager, especially when they're operating in a system that very deliberately constrains them.

 

[Bri]

Honestly I am not sure if Russell Wilson qualifies for the topic of this thread. In PFR for fantasy he has finished 9th, 8th and is currently 3rd for all QBs. Wilson has already arrived as a top 12 QB.

Teddy Bridgewater has over 70% completion percentage over the past 4 games. He keeps showing improvement with every game. I think he is a good bet to join the Qb1 group (top 12) in years ahead.

This is what I was thinking.

I don't think the Seahawks care that they have a super 1500 yard 15 TD WR or not. There's been plenty of championship teams that just wanted good reliable types and that's all they seem to want.

It feels like Wilson never throws for 300 yards and beats anyone with an aerial assault game but they're not asking him to be Dan Fouts, but more Phil Simms.

Teddy...I think the Vikes have not done well with WRs. Simpson was probably fine IF IF he was just depth. Nothing wrong with veteran depth at 3rd or 4th WR. Coradelle is a bust and I (always do) totally blame them for not developing him. With that talent, you pay Jerry Rice 10 mil to follow him around and teach him if you need to. Jennings I never liked and seemed limited and he's the same in Minny. They need to get Teddy a couple WRs and either have a definitive plan with Patterson and his own WR coach or trade him.

They need a TE because Rudolph may or may not be awesome and they can be had late in drafts so we're talking a minimal investment backup plan.

Hard to take anything you say seriously when you don't even know that Simpson didn't even make the Vikings 53 man roster.

that might be why that sentence had was (past tense) twice in there and not the word is