Why all the Vincent Brown Love? (1 Viewer)

[Lavachebeadsman]

I don't really get it. How is this guy worth hardly anything in a fantasy context, redraft or dynasty? I'm not posting this piece for clicks, I really want someone to tell me why I'm wrong about this dude who just doesn't seem to be very good.

Per FF Calculator ADP, he is being drafted as WR43 and over the last week, his overall draft position has crept into the 10th round. This madness has to stop. Coming out of San Diego State, Brown simply didn’t have the physical measurables that would suggest he was ever going to be anything special.

Height 5'11 Weight 181 40 4.68 Vertical 33.5 Inches Explosion Score 10.89 Broad Jump 121 inches Bench 12 reps

He is a short speed receiver with no speed. Honestly, it’s hard to even see how the Chargers are justified in giving Brown a starting role to start the season, given his relatively poor college production. He certainly fails Jon Moore’s “Eric Decker Test”. Look at the Rotoviz Heat Map of Brown’s college production, and just for comparison’s sake, lets include Chargers rookie Keenan Allen:

Heat Map Link

Brown had one solid season of production where beat Allen down on yards per target, and 12.88 on 105 targets certainly isn’t awful, but Brown never had even a B Dominator Rating (check Shawn Siegele’s excellent moneyinthebananastand.com for more info on Dominator Rating). Generally, Brown is a pretty meh prospect. He played against weaker competition in college, has already been injured for an entire NFL season and is not playing in an offense that I expect to be wildly production. Phillip Rivers Adjusted Yards Per Attempt when throwing to Brown in 2011 was 8.1 yards on 40 attempts, which is not a positive, considering that Rivers’ numbers were better Malcom Floyd (who is still on the roster) and a breaking down Antonio Gates.

I know that he runs really good routes and he has some solid hands. There are certainly things that scouts are going to love about his game, but I have grave doubts about his ability to produce for fantasy owners. Instead of selecting Brown, take a shot on Sidney Rice, Reuben Randle, Josh Gordon, or Mike Williams; all of those guys are going in a similar range to Brown and have much, much, much higher upsides.

Link

 

[Wyld Stallyns]

Carry over from 2012 training camp hype before the injury.

That said, at WR43 in a 12 team league, that makes him somebody's WR4 bench project... I don't think that qualifies as "love" or too high of an adp.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

People who are high on Vincent Brown probably aren't basing their view on his college production as much as they're basing it on his performance in last year's training camp and preseason. He appeared to be the best receiver on the team last year before he got hurt. In hindsight, outperforming the newly acquired Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal doesn't seem as impressive now as it did then; and Danario Alexander and Keenan Allen weren't on the team yet at the time. That said, he did look really good in last year's training camp and preseason.

The whole Chargers' WR situation this year is really hard to predict, IMO. But optimism about Brown isn't completely baseless.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

People who are high on Vincent Brown probably aren't basing their view on his college production as much as they're basing it on his performance in last year's training camp and preseason. He appeared to be the best receiver on the team last year before he got hurt. In hindsight, outperforming the newly acquired Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal doesn't seem as impressive now as it did then; and Danario Alexander and Keenan Allen weren't on the team yet at the time. That said, he did look really good in last year's training camp and preseason.

The whole Chargers' WR situation this year is really hard to predict, IMO. But optimism about Brown isn't completely baseless.

I mean, you are probably right. But I just don't see him ever producing a Top-30 WR season. Do you project him for that, ever, in his career?

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

Carry over from 2012 training camp hype before the injury.

That said, at WR43 in a 12 team league, that makes him somebody's WR4 bench project... I don't think that qualifies as "love" or too high of an adp.

When he is going ahead of Mike Williams or Sidney Rice, yeah, that's too high of an ADP

 

[domvin]

http://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2011/7/28/2302220/chargers-reach-agreement-with-wr-vincent-brown

A lot of his hype came from his Senior Bowl-he had a great Senior Bowl week, and Charlie Joiner effused praise on him after the draft.

Outside of injuries, his play has done nothing to deviate from his upside/potential. He had a nice Pre-season going before breaking his ankle....

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

http://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2011/7/28/2302220/chargers-reach-agreement-with-wr-vincent-brown

A lot of his hype came from his Senior Bowl-he had a great Senior Bowl week, and Charlie Joiner effused praise on him after the draft.

Outside of injuries, his play has done nothing to deviate from his upside/potential. He had a nice Pre-season going before breaking his ankle....

Crazy to me that last seasons training camp hype would carry over. Some fantasy players never learn, eh?

 

[FantasyTrader]

http://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2011/7/28/2302220/chargers-reach-agreement-with-wr-vincent-brown

A lot of his hype came from his Senior Bowl-he had a great Senior Bowl week, and Charlie Joiner effused praise on him after the draft.

Outside of injuries, his play has done nothing to deviate from his upside/potential. He had a nice Pre-season going before breaking his ankle....

Crazy to me that last seasons training camp hype would carry over. Some fantasy players never learn, eh?

Count me among the fantasy players who never learn. What I still like about Brown is that, as has already been stated, he was clearly the best WR on the team in 2012 pre-injury. And it wasn't a knee injury, lis franc, etc which would concern me more long-term. It's yet to be determined whether he's prone to injury or just had a run of bad luck.

Setting all of that aside, I'm simply trusting what my eyes have seen for the brief periods of time he's been healthy. He just seems to have a knack for making plays I'd rather roster that as my WR4 than Lance Moore, Sid Rice, etc.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

http://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2011/7/28/2302220/chargers-reach-agreement-with-wr-vincent-brown

A lot of his hype came from his Senior Bowl-he had a great Senior Bowl week, and Charlie Joiner effused praise on him after the draft.

Outside of injuries, his play has done nothing to deviate from his upside/potential. He had a nice Pre-season going before breaking his ankle....

Crazy to me that last seasons training camp hype would carry over. Some fantasy players never learn, eh?

Count me among the fantasy players who never learn. What I still like about Brown is that, as has already been stated, he was clearly the best WR on the team in 2012 pre-injury. And it wasn't a knee injury, lis franc, etc which would concern me more long-term. It's yet to be determined whether he's prone to injury or just had a run of bad luck.

Setting all of that aside, I'm simply trusting what my eyes have seen for the brief periods of time he's been healthy. He just seems to have a knack for making plays I'd rather roster that as my WR4 than Lance Moore, Sid Rice, etc.

He is literally one of the least explosive, least athletic WR's in my database. Playing with a QB with an elongated throwing motion and shaky O-line. I don't know how you can justify taking him over someone who is a WR3 EVERY YEAR (Lance Moore) or an arbitrage play on Harvin (if the 'Hawks pass more, more targets for Rice, who has a great YPC than Harvin, and higher RZ TD rate).

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

http://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2011/7/28/2302220/chargers-reach-agreement-with-wr-vincent-brown

A lot of his hype came from his Senior Bowl-he had a great Senior Bowl week, and Charlie Joiner effused praise on him after the draft.

Outside of injuries, his play has done nothing to deviate from his upside/potential. He had a nice Pre-season going before breaking his ankle....

Crazy to me that last seasons training camp hype would carry over. Some fantasy players never learn, eh?

I'm not sure what we should have learned from Vincent Brown's 2012 season. "Don't draft players who are going to get injured" seems like good advice, but it's not particularly easy to follow.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Playing with a QB with an elongated throwing motion and shaky O-line.

I would describe Rivers's throwing motion as "abbreviated" rather than "elongated."

 

[Go Blue]

People who are high on Vincent Brown probably aren't basing their view on his college production as much as they're basing it on his performance in last year's training camp and preseason. He appeared to be the best receiver on the team last year before he got hurt. In hindsight, outperforming the newly acquired Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal doesn't seem as impressive now as it did then; and Danario Alexander and Keenan Allen weren't on the team yet at the time. That said, he did look really good in last year's training camp and preseason.

The whole Chargers' WR situation this year is really hard to predict, IMO. But optimism about Brown isn't completely baseless.

I mean, you are probably right. But I just don't see him ever producing a Top-30 WR season. Do you project him for that, ever, in his career?

People who are high on Vincent Brown probably aren't basing their view on his college production as much as they're basing it on his performance in last year's training camp and preseason. He appeared to be the best receiver on the team last year before he got hurt. In hindsight, outperforming the newly acquired Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal doesn't seem as impressive now as it did then; and Danario Alexander and Keenan Allen weren't on the team yet at the time. That said, he did look really good in last year's training camp and preseason.

The whole Chargers' WR situation this year is really hard to predict, IMO. But optimism about Brown isn't completely baseless.

I mean, you are probably right. But I just don't see him ever producing a Top-30 WR season. Do you project him for that, ever, in his career?

I'm predicting a top 30 finish THIS year. San Diego is going away from the deep ball this year (Sorry Danario Alexander). Much more short and intermediate routes this year. This will really help out the mediocre O-line. Brown is a very good route runner and I fully expect him to be the top San Diego WR this year. While I'm not saying he's a top 10 WR, he's going to outperform his ADP.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

People who are high on Vincent Brown probably aren't basing their view on his college production as much as they're basing it on his performance in last year's training camp and preseason. He appeared to be the best receiver on the team last year before he got hurt. In hindsight, outperforming the newly acquired Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal doesn't seem as impressive now as it did then; and Danario Alexander and Keenan Allen weren't on the team yet at the time. That said, he did look really good in last year's training camp and preseason.

The whole Chargers' WR situation this year is really hard to predict, IMO. But optimism about Brown isn't completely baseless.

I mean, you are probably right. But I just don't see him ever producing a Top-30 WR season. Do you project him for that, ever, in his career?

People who are high on Vincent Brown probably aren't basing their view on his college production as much as they're basing it on his performance in last year's training camp and preseason. He appeared to be the best receiver on the team last year before he got hurt. In hindsight, outperforming the newly acquired Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal doesn't seem as impressive now as it did then; and Danario Alexander and Keenan Allen weren't on the team yet at the time. That said, he did look really good in last year's training camp and preseason.

The whole Chargers' WR situation this year is really hard to predict, IMO. But optimism about Brown isn't completely baseless.

I mean, you are probably right. But I just don't see him ever producing a Top-30 WR season. Do you project him for that, ever, in his career?

I'm predicting a top 30 finish THIS year. San Diego is going away from the deep ball this year (Sorry Danario Alexander). Much more short and intermediate routes this year. This will really help out the mediocre O-line. Brown is a very good route runner and I fully expect him to be the top San Diego WR this year. While I'm not saying he's a top 10 WR, he's going to outperform his ADP.

A top 30 finish this year, huh? I'm not really familiar with how the FBG boards do wagers or what not, but I see Brown finishing in the top 30 as one of the most unlikely scenarios for the Chargers passing game.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

http://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2011/7/28/2302220/chargers-reach-agreement-with-wr-vincent-brown

A lot of his hype came from his Senior Bowl-he had a great Senior Bowl week, and Charlie Joiner effused praise on him after the draft.

Outside of injuries, his play has done nothing to deviate from his upside/potential. He had a nice Pre-season going before breaking his ankle....

Crazy to me that last seasons training camp hype would carry over. Some fantasy players never learn, eh?

I'm not sure what we should have learned from Vincent Brown's 2012 season. "Don't draft players who are going to get injured" seems like good advice, but it's not particularly easy to follow.

Hah, fair point! But I'd say given his pedigree, physical talent and situation, the lesson would be "Don't over-value guys based on year old preseason hype"

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

Playing with a QB with an elongated throwing motion and shaky O-line.

I would describe Rivers's throwing motion as "abbreviated" rather than "elongated."

And for what it's worth, exactly middle of the road in delivery time. https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/07/signature-stat-snapshot-time-to-throw/ 2.72 seconds, tied with Brandon Weeden.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Playing with a QB with an elongated throwing motion and shaky O-line.

I would describe Rivers's throwing motion as "abbreviated" rather than "elongated."

when i think of the adjective elongated in the context of breaking down QB passing mechanics, leftwich comes immediately to mind...

agreed, maurile, rivers dissimilar from leftwich...

coming out of college, he had an unorthodox, three quarter delivery and release point (not textbook over the top like russell wilson, though conversely, far from catastrophically bad tebow)... there was some talk that his new team might try and change it, but that can be risky, and don't think i heard anything more about it since the draft process... it could conceivably lead to a few more passes being batted down, but it obviously hasn't greatly impeded whatever level of success he has enjoyed (more earlier in his career, his level of play hasn't seemed as high lately?)...

while on the subject, do people think rivers has a bounce back year, or slides further downward?

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

Playing with a QB with an elongated throwing motion and shaky O-line.

I would describe Rivers's throwing motion as "abbreviated" rather than "elongated."

when i think of the adjective elongated in the context of breaking down QB passing mechanics, leftwich comes immediately top mind...

agreed, maurile, rivers dissimilar from leftwich...

coming out of college, he had an unorthodox, three quarter delivery and release point (not textbook over the top like russell wilson, though conversely, far from catastrophically bad tebow)... there was some talk that his new team might try and change it, but that can be risky, and to my knowledge, don't think i heard anything more about it since the draft process... it could conceivably lead to a few more passes being batted down, but it obviously hasn't greatly impeded whatever level of success he has enjoyed (more earlier in his career, his level of play hasn't seemed as high lately?)...

while on the subject, do people think rivers has a bounce back year, or slides further downward?

He is 100% on the downward slope of his bell curve.

From this piece:

"60% (12 of 20) of QBs with seasons comparable to Rivers’ 2012 produced fewer fantasy points the next year. Further, only 30% of QBs in a similar career position (our “Winners” cohort) rebounded to have fantasy significance – and Rivers has worse pre-decline numbers than they do. Like Vick, the QB App “low” and “median” projections raise alarm. I’m not seeing much to suggest optimism for Rivers’ future fantasy relevance."

 

[BlackMamba24]

People who are high on Vincent Brown probably aren't basing their view on his college production as much as they're basing it on his performance in last year's training camp and preseason. He appeared to be the best receiver on the team last year before he got hurt. In hindsight, outperforming the newly acquired Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal doesn't seem as impressive now as it did then; and Danario Alexander and Keenan Allen weren't on the team yet at the time. That said, he did look really good in last year's training camp and preseason.

The whole Chargers' WR situation this year is really hard to predict, IMO. But optimism about Brown isn't completely baseless.

I kinda agree with this, he looked good during last year's training camp and preseason. I'm not super high on V. Brown, but he has as good of a chance as anyone on that roster IMO. He's a good guy to roster and see what happens.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

People who are high on Vincent Brown probably aren't basing their view on his college production as much as they're basing it on his performance in last year's training camp and preseason. He appeared to be the best receiver on the team last year before he got hurt. In hindsight, outperforming the newly acquired Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal doesn't seem as impressive now as it did then; and Danario Alexander and Keenan Allen weren't on the team yet at the time. That said, he did look really good in last year's training camp and preseason.

The whole Chargers' WR situation this year is really hard to predict, IMO. But optimism about Brown isn't completely baseless.

I kinda agree with this, he looked good during last year's training camp and preseason. I'm not super high on V. Brown, but he has as good of a chance as anyone on that roster IMO. He's a good guy to roster and see what happens.

I mean, Alexander is the clear top dog there until he gets hurt, and I like Ladarius Green's chances of becoming a startable pass catcher more than I like Brown's, honestly.

 

[BlackMamba24]

People who are high on Vincent Brown probably aren't basing their view on his college production as much as they're basing it on his performance in last year's training camp and preseason. He appeared to be the best receiver on the team last year before he got hurt. In hindsight, outperforming the newly acquired Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal doesn't seem as impressive now as it did then; and Danario Alexander and Keenan Allen weren't on the team yet at the time. That said, he did look really good in last year's training camp and preseason.

The whole Chargers' WR situation this year is really hard to predict, IMO. But optimism about Brown isn't completely baseless.

I kinda agree with this, he looked good during last year's training camp and preseason. I'm not super high on V. Brown, but he has as good of a chance as anyone on that roster IMO. He's a good guy to roster and see what happens.

I mean, Alexander is the clear top dog there until he gets hurt, and I like Ladarius Green's chances of becoming a startable pass catcher more than I like Brown's, honestly.

As a Mizzou fan, I like Alexander and I'm rooting for him. But everyone knows his injury history, and I'm not betting on him, which is why I like V. Brown and Allen better in San Diego. Personally, I wouldn't touch Alexander.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Rivers has an extraordinarily quick release. It's not an orthodox throwing motion: he has kind of a low release point, and he throws without a full windup, almost like he's shotputting the ball instead of really throwing it.

The link Lavachebeadsman provided concerns how long the QB holds onto the ball in the pocket before throwing it; it's not about how quick the release is once the QB decides to throw. By the latter measure, Rivers is among the quickest in the NFL. (Obviously, a quick release isn't everything. But whatever a quick release is worth, Rivers has one.)

I don't know whether Rivers will bounce back this year. His offensive line was historically bad last season, and Rivers absolutely needs to be able to step up into the pocket in order to be effective. He lacks mobility, and he becomes very inaccurate when he has to throw on the run. He also lacks zip and the ball can sail on him when he throws off his back foot. So the first thing he needs for a bounce-back season is improved OL play, and the jury is out on whether he'll get it. The Chargers will start four new offensive linemen this season, and they're not a proven bunch.

The offense will change in other ways as well, and it's hard to anticipate what the results will be. Reportedly, the team will generally use shorter drops and quicker-developing routes this season. They'll also simplify the reads. Rivers pressed too hard last year and often ended up making bad decisions. It's too soon to tell whether that will be fixed, but it's hard to imagine things getting much worse in that regard.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

Rivers has an extraordinarily quick release. It's not an orthodox throwing motion: he has kind of a low release point, and he throws without a full windup, almost like he's shotputting the ball instead of really throwing it.

The link Lavachebeadsman provided concerns how long the QB holds onto the ball in the pocket before throwing it; it's not about how quick the release is once the QB decides to throw. By the latter measure, Rivers is among the quickest in the NFL. (Obviously, a quick release isn't everything. But whatever a quick release is worth, Rivers has one.)

I don't know whether Rivers will bounce back this year. His offensive line was historically bad last season, and Rivers absolutely needs to be able to step up into the pocket in order to be effective. He lacks mobility, and he becomes very inaccurate when he has to throw on the run. He also lacks zip and the ball can sail on him when he throws off his back foot. So the first thing he needs for a bounce-back season is improved OL play, and the jury is out on whether he'll get it. The Chargers will start four new offensive linemen this season, and they're not a proven bunch.

The offense will change in other ways as well, and it's hard to anticipate what the results will be. Reportedly, the team will generally use shorter drops and quicker-developing routes this season. They'll also simplify the reads. Rivers pressed too hard last year and often ended up making bad decisions. It's too soon to tell whether that will be fixed, but it's hard to imagine things getting much worse in that regard.

All very good analysis and I thank you for your time writing it up. I still do have a question though: do you ever project Brown to have a top 30-WR season?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Rivers has an extraordinarily quick release. It's not an orthodox throwing motion: he has kind of a low release point, and he throws without a full windup, almost like he's shotputting the ball instead of really throwing it.

The link Lavachebeadsman provided concerns how long the QB holds onto the ball in the pocket before throwing it; it's not about how quick the release is once the QB decides to throw. By the latter measure, Rivers is among the quickest in the NFL. (Obviously, a quick release isn't everything. But whatever a quick release is worth, Rivers has one.)

I don't know whether Rivers will bounce back this year. His offensive line was historically bad last season, and Rivers absolutely needs to be able to step up into the pocket in order to be effective. He lacks mobility, and he becomes very inaccurate when he has to throw on the run. He also lacks zip and the ball can sail on him when he throws off his back foot. So the first thing he needs for a bounce-back season is improved OL play, and the jury is out on whether he'll get it. The Chargers will start four new offensive linemen this season, and they're not a proven bunch.

The offense will change in other ways as well, and it's hard to anticipate what the results will be. Reportedly, the team will generally use shorter drops and quicker-developing routes this season. They'll also simplify the reads. Rivers pressed too hard last year and often ended up making bad decisions. It's too soon to tell whether that will be fixed, but it's hard to imagine things getting much worse in that regard.

All very good analysis and I thank you for your time writing it up. I still do have a question though: do you ever project Brown to have a top 30-WR season?

That's a hard question to answer. I think he's probably got about a 30% chance of being a top-30 WR this year. (A top-30 WR is basically an NFL WR1 on an average passing offense, or a strong NFL WR2 on a very good passing offense.) I think Danario Alexander has a better chance than Vincent Brown of being the Chargers' WR1 this season, but I don't think the distance between them is huge. I'd make Alexander something like a 60-40 favorite over Brown, and then when you factor in Keenan Allen and Malcom Floyd, that brings Brown down to around 30%.

Alexander is playing on a one-year contract, and who knows if he'll even make it through the entire year? So in 2014, Brown may not have Alexander to contend with, but Keenan Allen will be a year older, and there may be other draft picks or free-agent signings by then as well. But if I had to pick a number, I'd give Brown around a 40%-45% chance of being a top-30 WR in 2014.

If I were guessing whether Brown will ever have a top-30 season, I do think there's a better than 50% chance. But I don't know how much better. It's something I'm not accustomed to quantifying in those terms.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

Rivers has an extraordinarily quick release. It's not an orthodox throwing motion: he has kind of a low release point, and he throws without a full windup, almost like he's shotputting the ball instead of really throwing it.

The link Lavachebeadsman provided concerns how long the QB holds onto the ball in the pocket before throwing it; it's not about how quick the release is once the QB decides to throw. By the latter measure, Rivers is among the quickest in the NFL. (Obviously, a quick release isn't everything. But whatever a quick release is worth, Rivers has one.)

I don't know whether Rivers will bounce back this year. His offensive line was historically bad last season, and Rivers absolutely needs to be able to step up into the pocket in order to be effective. He lacks mobility, and he becomes very inaccurate when he has to throw on the run. He also lacks zip and the ball can sail on him when he throws off his back foot. So the first thing he needs for a bounce-back season is improved OL play, and the jury is out on whether he'll get it. The Chargers will start four new offensive linemen this season, and they're not a proven bunch.

The offense will change in other ways as well, and it's hard to anticipate what the results will be. Reportedly, the team will generally use shorter drops and quicker-developing routes this season. They'll also simplify the reads. Rivers pressed too hard last year and often ended up making bad decisions. It's too soon to tell whether that will be fixed, but it's hard to imagine things getting much worse in that regard.

All very good analysis and I thank you for your time writing it up. I still do have a question though: do you ever project Brown to have a top 30-WR season?

That's a hard question to answer. I think he's probably got about a 30% chance of being a top-30 WR this year. (A top-30 WR is basically an NFL WR1 on an average passing offense, or a strong NFL WR2 on a very good passing offense.) I think Danario Alexander has a better chance than Vincent Brown of being the Chargers' WR1 this season, but I don't think the distance between them is huge. I'd make Alexander something like a 60-40 favorite over Brown, and then when you factor in Keenan Allen and Malcom Floyd, that brings Brown down to around 30%.

Alexander is playing on a one-year contract, and who knows if he'll even make it through the entire year? So in 2014, Brown may not have Alexander to contend with, but Keenan Allen will be a year older, and there may be other draft picks or free-agent signings by then as well. But if I had to pick a number, I'd give Brown around a 40%-45% chance of being a top-30 WR in 2014.

If I were guessing whether Brown will ever have a top-30 season, I do think there's a better than 50% chance. But I don't know how much better. It's something I'm not accustomed to quantifying in those terms.

That's a fair quibble. Just how I look at things in a dynasty context. If they aren't going to ever post a top-30 season, then they probably aren't rosterable. I think your post is probably valid, because if Alexander goes down and Brown is force fed targets, he'll be a top 30 guy, clearly. I like Alexander more than you though. Health is my only concern there (and it's a big one).

 

[domvin]

Rivers has an extraordinarily quick release. It's not an orthodox throwing motion: he has kind of a low release point, and he throws without a full windup, almost like he's shotputting the ball instead of really throwing it.

The link Lavachebeadsman provided concerns how long the QB holds onto the ball in the pocket before throwing it; it's not about how quick the release is once the QB decides to throw. By the latter measure, Rivers is among the quickest in the NFL. (Obviously, a quick release isn't everything. But whatever a quick release is worth, Rivers has one.)

I don't know whether Rivers will bounce back this year. His offensive line was historically bad last season, and Rivers absolutely needs to be able to step up into the pocket in order to be effective. He lacks mobility, and he becomes very inaccurate when he has to throw on the run. He also lacks zip and the ball can sail on him when he throws off his back foot. So the first thing he needs for a bounce-back season is improved OL play, and the jury is out on whether he'll get it. The Chargers will start four new offensive linemen this season, and they're not a proven bunch.

The offense will change in other ways as well, and it's hard to anticipate what the results will be. Reportedly, the team will generally use shorter drops and quicker-developing routes this season. They'll also simplify the reads. Rivers pressed too hard last year and often ended up making bad decisions. It's too soon to tell whether that will be fixed, but it's hard to imagine things getting much worse in that regard.

All very good analysis and I thank you for your time writing it up. I still do have a question though: do you ever project Brown to have a top 30-WR season?

That's a hard question to answer. I think he's probably got about a 30% chance of being a top-30 WR this year. (A top-30 WR is basically an NFL WR1 on an average passing offense, or a strong NFL WR2 on a very good passing offense.) I think Danario Alexander has a better chance than Vincent Brown of being the Chargers' WR1 this season, but I don't think the distance between them is huge. I'd make Alexander something like a 60-40 favorite over Brown, and then when you factor in Keenan Allen and Malcom Floyd, that brings Brown down to around 30%.

Alexander is playing on a one-year contract, and who knows if he'll even make it through the entire year? So in 2014, Brown may not have Alexander to contend with, but Keenan Allen will be a year older, and there may be other draft picks or free-agent signings by then as well. But if I had to pick a number, I'd give Brown around a 40%-45% chance of being a top-30 WR in 2014.

If I were guessing whether Brown will ever have a top-30 season, I do think there's a better than 50% chance. But I don't know how much better. It's something I'm not accustomed to quantifying in those terms.

That's a fair quibble. Just how I look at things in a dynasty context. If they aren't going to ever post a top-30 season, then they probably aren't rosterable. I think your post is probably valid, because if Alexander goes down and Brown is force fed targets, he'll be a top 30 guy, clearly. I like Alexander more than you though. Health is my only concern there (and it's a big one).

The thing is, how do you know they or any player will never post a top 30 season? You eliminate quite a few guys in rookie drafts, eh? Vincent Brown has had a short, injury marred career thus far. To give up on him now, would be foolish.

Theres a slew of guys who have taken a little bit of time to break out. His adp makes him a nice upside gamble at this point..... And the aspect of rivers declining arm strength, if true, caters to a good route runner on short to intermediate routes, and not the long ball on D Alexander.

 

[plastik]

I haven't seen him go ahead of Mike Williams or Josh Gordon anywhere. Definitely ahead of Sydney Rice and Reuben Randle though, and with consistency.

I'm not super high on Brown, but he seems like an ideal posession guy for the chargers... a technician with great hands. With their talk of quicker shorter passes Brown could be a high volume guy in 2013. As for other reasons for hype, this catch from Thursday Night Football in his rookie year stands out in my memory. I'll gladly take him as a WR4 in ppr.

 

[kutta]

http://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2011/7/28/2302220/chargers-reach-agreement-with-wr-vincent-brown

A lot of his hype came from his Senior Bowl-he had a great Senior Bowl week, and Charlie Joiner effused praise on him after the draft.

Outside of injuries, his play has done nothing to deviate from his upside/potential. He had a nice Pre-season going before breaking his ankle....

Crazy to me that last seasons training camp hype would carry over. Some fantasy players never learn, eh?

Count me among the fantasy players who never learn. What I still like about Brown is that, as has already been stated, he was clearly the best WR on the team in 2012 pre-injury. And it wasn't a knee injury, lis franc, etc which would concern me more long-term. It's yet to be determined whether he's prone to injury or just had a run of bad luck.

Setting all of that aside, I'm simply trusting what my eyes have seen for the brief periods of time he's been healthy. He just seems to have a knack for making plays I'd rather roster that as my WR4 than Lance Moore, Sid Rice, etc.

He is literally one of the least explosive, least athletic WR's in my database. Playing with a QB with an elongated throwing motion and shaky O-line. I don't know how you can justify taking him over someone who is a WR3 EVERY YEAR (Lance Moore) or an arbitrage play on Harvin (if the 'Hawks pass more, more targets for Rice, who has a great YPC than Harvin, and higher RZ TD rate).

Because usually when we draft our WR3 we are not looking for a guy we know is pretty much guaranteed to put up WR3 numbers. We want guys who might put up WR3 numbers, he might even put up WR4 numbers. But he also has a chance, if things break right, to put up WR2 numbers and maybe is a long shot to put up WR 1 numbers.

Lance Moore will put up WR 3 numbers. Agreed. And Brown could put up WR 4 numbers. But Brown has a chance to have a very good year, especially since DA is most likely not going to make it through the year healthy. When I'm drafting at that point in the draft, I'll take the guy with some upside rather than the guy who is going to be pretty mediocre all year.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

Rivers has an extraordinarily quick release. It's not an orthodox throwing motion: he has kind of a low release point, and he throws without a full windup, almost like he's shotputting the ball instead of really throwing it.

The link Lavachebeadsman provided concerns how long the QB holds onto the ball in the pocket before throwing it; it's not about how quick the release is once the QB decides to throw. By the latter measure, Rivers is among the quickest in the NFL. (Obviously, a quick release isn't everything. But whatever a quick release is worth, Rivers has one.)

I don't know whether Rivers will bounce back this year. His offensive line was historically bad last season, and Rivers absolutely needs to be able to step up into the pocket in order to be effective. He lacks mobility, and he becomes very inaccurate when he has to throw on the run. He also lacks zip and the ball can sail on him when he throws off his back foot. So the first thing he needs for a bounce-back season is improved OL play, and the jury is out on whether he'll get it. The Chargers will start four new offensive linemen this season, and they're not a proven bunch.

The offense will change in other ways as well, and it's hard to anticipate what the results will be. Reportedly, the team will generally use shorter drops and quicker-developing routes this season. They'll also simplify the reads. Rivers pressed too hard last year and often ended up making bad decisions. It's too soon to tell whether that will be fixed, but it's hard to imagine things getting much worse in that regard.

All very good analysis and I thank you for your time writing it up. I still do have a question though: do you ever project Brown to have a top 30-WR season?

That's a hard question to answer. I think he's probably got about a 30% chance of being a top-30 WR this year. (A top-30 WR is basically an NFL WR1 on an average passing offense, or a strong NFL WR2 on a very good passing offense.) I think Danario Alexander has a better chance than Vincent Brown of being the Chargers' WR1 this season, but I don't think the distance between them is huge. I'd make Alexander something like a 60-40 favorite over Brown, and then when you factor in Keenan Allen and Malcom Floyd, that brings Brown down to around 30%.

Alexander is playing on a one-year contract, and who knows if he'll even make it through the entire year? So in 2014, Brown may not have Alexander to contend with, but Keenan Allen will be a year older, and there may be other draft picks or free-agent signings by then as well. But if I had to pick a number, I'd give Brown around a 40%-45% chance of being a top-30 WR in 2014.

If I were guessing whether Brown will ever have a top-30 season, I do think there's a better than 50% chance. But I don't know how much better. It's something I'm not accustomed to quantifying in those terms.

That's a fair quibble. Just how I look at things in a dynasty context. If they aren't going to ever post a top-30 season, then they probably aren't rosterable. I think your post is probably valid, because if Alexander goes down and Brown is force fed targets, he'll be a top 30 guy, clearly. I like Alexander more than you though. Health is my only concern there (and it's a big one).

The thing is, how do you know they or any player will never post a top 30 season? You eliminate quite a few guys in rookie drafts, eh? Vincent Brown has had a short, injury marred career thus far. To give up on him now, would be foolish.

Theres a slew of guys who have taken a little bit of time to break out. His adp makes him a nice upside gamble at this point..... And the aspect of rivers declining arm strength, if true, caters to a good route runner on short to intermediate routes, and not the long ball on D Alexander.

Since 1999, there are exactly 2 receivers who ran slower than 4.65 40 times and posted a top 30 fantasy WR season: Anquan Boldin and Mike Clayton. Do you think Brown is Anquan Boldin?

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

http://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2011/7/28/2302220/chargers-reach-agreement-with-wr-vincent-brown

A lot of his hype came from his Senior Bowl-he had a great Senior Bowl week, and Charlie Joiner effused praise on him after the draft.

Outside of injuries, his play has done nothing to deviate from his upside/potential. He had a nice Pre-season going before breaking his ankle....

Crazy to me that last seasons training camp hype would carry over. Some fantasy players never learn, eh?

Count me among the fantasy players who never learn. What I still like about Brown is that, as has already been stated, he was clearly the best WR on the team in 2012 pre-injury. And it wasn't a knee injury, lis franc, etc which would concern me more long-term. It's yet to be determined whether he's prone to injury or just had a run of bad luck.

Setting all of that aside, I'm simply trusting what my eyes have seen for the brief periods of time he's been healthy. He just seems to have a knack for making plays I'd rather roster that as my WR4 than Lance Moore, Sid Rice, etc.

He is literally one of the least explosive, least athletic WR's in my database. Playing with a QB with an elongated throwing motion and shaky O-line. I don't know how you can justify taking him over someone who is a WR3 EVERY YEAR (Lance Moore) or an arbitrage play on Harvin (if the 'Hawks pass more, more targets for Rice, who has a great YPC than Harvin, and higher RZ TD rate).

Because usually when we draft our WR3 we are not looking for a guy we know is pretty much guaranteed to put up WR3 numbers. We want guys who might put up WR3 numbers, he might even put up WR4 numbers. But he also has a chance, if things break right, to put up WR2 numbers and maybe is a long shot to put up WR 1 numbers.

Lance Moore will put up WR 3 numbers. Agreed. And Brown could put up WR 4 numbers. But Brown has a chance to have a very good year, especially since DA is most likely not going to make it through the year healthy. When I'm drafting at that point in the draft, I'll take the guy with some upside rather than the guy who is going to be pretty mediocre all year.

I don't see anything that suggests Brown is going to get fed the ball in a way that would indicate he is going to put a up WR1 or WR2 season.

 

[Sabertooth]

I am more intrigued by Keenan Allen.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

I am more intrigued by Keenan Allen.

I think I probably am too, as Allen had the greater Dominator Ratings and his poor 40 time was created by an injury.

 

[kutta]

http://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2011/7/28/2302220/chargers-reach-agreement-with-wr-vincent-brown

A lot of his hype came from his Senior Bowl-he had a great Senior Bowl week, and Charlie Joiner effused praise on him after the draft.

Outside of injuries, his play has done nothing to deviate from his upside/potential. He had a nice Pre-season going before breaking his ankle....

Crazy to me that last seasons training camp hype would carry over. Some fantasy players never learn, eh?

Count me among the fantasy players who never learn. What I still like about Brown is that, as has already been stated, he was clearly the best WR on the team in 2012 pre-injury. And it wasn't a knee injury, lis franc, etc which would concern me more long-term. It's yet to be determined whether he's prone to injury or just had a run of bad luck.

Setting all of that aside, I'm simply trusting what my eyes have seen for the brief periods of time he's been healthy. He just seems to have a knack for making plays I'd rather roster that as my WR4 than Lance Moore, Sid Rice, etc.

He is literally one of the least explosive, least athletic WR's in my database. Playing with a QB with an elongated throwing motion and shaky O-line. I don't know how you can justify taking him over someone who is a WR3 EVERY YEAR (Lance Moore) or an arbitrage play on Harvin (if the 'Hawks pass more, more targets for Rice, who has a great YPC than Harvin, and higher RZ TD rate).

Because usually when we draft our WR3 we are not looking for a guy we know is pretty much guaranteed to put up WR3 numbers. We want guys who might put up WR3 numbers, he might even put up WR4 numbers. But he also has a chance, if things break right, to put up WR2 numbers and maybe is a long shot to put up WR 1 numbers.

Lance Moore will put up WR 3 numbers. Agreed. And Brown could put up WR 4 numbers. But Brown has a chance to have a very good year, especially since DA is most likely not going to make it through the year healthy. When I'm drafting at that point in the draft, I'll take the guy with some upside rather than the guy who is going to be pretty mediocre all year.

I don't see anything that suggests Brown is going to get fed the ball in a way that would indicate he is going to put a up WR1 or WR2 season.

I understand you don't. But others think it's possible. It may not be likely, but it's possible. I mean, heck, is ADP is in the 10th round. It's not like people are taking him in the third or fourth round.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

http://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2011/7/28/2302220/chargers-reach-agreement-with-wr-vincent-brown

A lot of his hype came from his Senior Bowl-he had a great Senior Bowl week, and Charlie Joiner effused praise on him after the draft.

Outside of injuries, his play has done nothing to deviate from his upside/potential. He had a nice Pre-season going before breaking his ankle....

Crazy to me that last seasons training camp hype would carry over. Some fantasy players never learn, eh?

Count me among the fantasy players who never learn. What I still like about Brown is that, as has already been stated, he was clearly the best WR on the team in 2012 pre-injury. And it wasn't a knee injury, lis franc, etc which would concern me more long-term. It's yet to be determined whether he's prone to injury or just had a run of bad luck.

Setting all of that aside, I'm simply trusting what my eyes have seen for the brief periods of time he's been healthy. He just seems to have a knack for making plays I'd rather roster that as my WR4 than Lance Moore, Sid Rice, etc.

He is literally one of the least explosive, least athletic WR's in my database. Playing with a QB with an elongated throwing motion and shaky O-line. I don't know how you can justify taking him over someone who is a WR3 EVERY YEAR (Lance Moore) or an arbitrage play on Harvin (if the 'Hawks pass more, more targets for Rice, who has a great YPC than Harvin, and higher RZ TD rate).

Because usually when we draft our WR3 we are not looking for a guy we know is pretty much guaranteed to put up WR3 numbers. We want guys who might put up WR3 numbers, he might even put up WR4 numbers. But he also has a chance, if things break right, to put up WR2 numbers and maybe is a long shot to put up WR 1 numbers.

Lance Moore will put up WR 3 numbers. Agreed. And Brown could put up WR 4 numbers. But Brown has a chance to have a very good year, especially since DA is most likely not going to make it through the year healthy. When I'm drafting at that point in the draft, I'll take the guy with some upside rather than the guy who is going to be pretty mediocre all year.

I don't see anything that suggests Brown is going to get fed the ball in a way that would indicate he is going to put a up WR1 or WR2 season.

I understand you don't. But others think it's possible. It may not be likely, but it's possible. I mean, heck, is ADP is in the 10th round. It's not like people are taking him in the third or fourth round.

Every pick you make has an opportunity cost. None of your selections should be made carelessly. Just my opinion, I suppose.

 

[Touchdown There]

Brown will never be fantasy relevant.

 

[Saint]

Seems there was similar feedback last year when SD extended Floyd's contract, signed Meachem, and then signed Royal. Not that any of them lit it up, but Brown was the star in training camp prior to injury. I say the jury is out for him this year to see how Training Camp goes, but this is something that bears watching.

Last year, Rivers had several comments stating "Brown was in for a big year" and that Rivers believes in him. In addition, here is some of the news articles that have been published over the last several months:

New Chargers coach Mike McCoy has "high hopes" for third-year WR Vincent Brown, and has identified Brown as a "great route runner."
McCoy also praised Brown's discipline. A promising third-round pick in 2011, Brown's 2012 season was lost due to a broken left ankle last preseason. Players typically receive clean slates under new coaching staffs, and Brown could wind up pushing Malcom Floyd for a starting job opposite Danario Alexander.

Brown fractured his ankle last August. The Chargers are taking it easy on him during OTAs, but Brown expects to be full-go for training camp. Malcom Floyd and Danario Alexander are running with the first team, but both Brown and rookie Keenan Allen could jump ahead of Floyd in due time. San Diego was planning to "feature" Brown last season, although there's now a new regime in town.

Vincent Brown is running with the Chargers' starters at OTAs this week.
Coach Mike McCoy says Brown will "without a doubt" be a big part of the 2013 offense. Brown has been rotating with Malcom Floyd opposite Danario Alexander, and he could even overtake the soon-to-be 32-year-old Floyd shortly. Brown is finally 100 percent recovered from his broken ankle. If he locks down the Z receiver spot opposite X wideout Danario Alexander, Brown could be quite the fantasy sleeper. He's got great hands and has always run great routes.

The Union-Tribune says Vincent Brown was "just plain spectacular" during OTAs and minicamp.
We can now safely say that the broken ankle that ruined Brown's 2012 season is water under the bridge. And since the Chargers are installing a more precise offense that de-emphasizes the deep ball, Brown has a realistic shot to beat out Malcom Floyd for the starting Z receiver spot. He's a far superior route-runner. Brown has plenty of sleeper appeal in upcoming fantasy drafts.

If the coach is scheming quicker pass plays and shifting the offense to be more west coast offense driven, then I have to think Brown in the Z slot is relevant. For a 10th round price tag, and if you are in PPR, he's going to outperform his ADP, especially if he supplants Floyd, which he was doing last year before the injury. Barring another freakish injury, I only see this guy's ADP rising once training camp starts. That's my opinion.

 

[ldizzle]

I remember week 10 in his rookie year (then he got hurt iirc) his stat line was 5-97-1, but should have been 2tds because of a bs call where the Raiders CB had his toe out of bounds and was touching the ball while Brown caught the TD. they reversed the call but whatever. He had the catch of the week, and from that game on locals believe he has this "my ball" mentality.

Here is one of the catches:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-cant-miss-plays/09000d5d823fde03/WK-10-Can-t-Miss-Play-Brown-comes-down-with-big-TD

Others have already pointed out his preseason last year that helped build some hype.

 

[Shanahanigans]

I recently traded Brown in order to move from 2.24 to 2.14 in the draft. Although I do like Brown when I watch him play (he has great hands, runs good routes, and plays bigger than he is) I kept reminding myself he is a 5' 11" WR with 4.7 speed. I decided I'd much rather put myself in a better position to draft a future stud than to roster a guy who I view as a low end WR3 in a best case scenario.

I just hope I don't kick myself for not trusting my eyes, and going with the odds based on measurables.

 

[ShaHBucks]

I recently traded Brown in order to move from 2.24 to 2.14 in the draft. Although I do like Brown when I watch him play (he has great hands, runs good routes, and plays bigger than he is) I kept reminding myself he is a 5' 11" WR with 4.7 speed. I decided I'd much rather put myself in a better position to draft a future stud than to roster a guy who I view as a low end WR3 in a best case scenario.

I just hope I don't kick myself for not trusting my eyes, and going with the odds based on measurables.

This is exactly what I'd say. He's better than his numbers but I'm still skeptical. Keenan Allen is a better version of Brown. That also hurts his stock.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I think Vincent Brown will take over as the Bolts #1 WR and since I think that is going to happen, and that their are 32 teams, that the odds are that he will be in the top-30 WRs this year.

I felt last year the plan was to have V-Brown as the #1 WR for San Deigo but the injury side-tracked his path for a year.

My observation is he has the best speed of the legit candidates of that group, he runs the best routes, and is the most atheletic or the WRs vying to be the #1 WR.

A broken bone doesn't concern me like a ligament injury would.

The Bolts O-Line did add a couple of OTs, Max Starks via FA and Fluker from the draft, and the offensive scheme switches from Norv Turner's five/seven stop drop vertical-stretch offense to getting the ball out quicker so a WR like Brown who runs precise routes and makes consistent catches is in prime position to become the go-to guy.

Add, Phil Rivers is highly productive even when he has what is considered an 'off' year which bodes well for his WRs.

I like Vincent Brown a lot this year and I do see him as a top-30 WR.

 

[kutta]

http://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2011/7/28/2302220/chargers-reach-agreement-with-wr-vincent-brown

A lot of his hype came from his Senior Bowl-he had a great Senior Bowl week, and Charlie Joiner effused praise on him after the draft.

Outside of injuries, his play has done nothing to deviate from his upside/potential. He had a nice Pre-season going before breaking his ankle....

Crazy to me that last seasons training camp hype would carry over. Some fantasy players never learn, eh?

Count me among the fantasy players who never learn. What I still like about Brown is that, as has already been stated, he was clearly the best WR on the team in 2012 pre-injury. And it wasn't a knee injury, lis franc, etc which would concern me more long-term. It's yet to be determined whether he's prone to injury or just had a run of bad luck.

Setting all of that aside, I'm simply trusting what my eyes have seen for the brief periods of time he's been healthy. He just seems to have a knack for making plays I'd rather roster that as my WR4 than Lance Moore, Sid Rice, etc.

He is literally one of the least explosive, least athletic WR's in my database. Playing with a QB with an elongated throwing motion and shaky O-line. I don't know how you can justify taking him over someone who is a WR3 EVERY YEAR (Lance Moore) or an arbitrage play on Harvin (if the 'Hawks pass more, more targets for Rice, who has a great YPC than Harvin, and higher RZ TD rate).

Because usually when we draft our WR3 we are not looking for a guy we know is pretty much guaranteed to put up WR3 numbers. We want guys who might put up WR3 numbers, he might even put up WR4 numbers. But he also has a chance, if things break right, to put up WR2 numbers and maybe is a long shot to put up WR 1 numbers.

Lance Moore will put up WR 3 numbers. Agreed. And Brown could put up WR 4 numbers. But Brown has a chance to have a very good year, especially since DA is most likely not going to make it through the year healthy. When I'm drafting at that point in the draft, I'll take the guy with some upside rather than the guy who is going to be pretty mediocre all year.

I don't see anything that suggests Brown is going to get fed the ball in a way that would indicate he is going to put a up WR1 or WR2 season.

I understand you don't. But others think it's possible. It may not be likely, but it's possible. I mean, heck, is ADP is in the 10th round. It's not like people are taking him in the third or fourth round.

Every pick you make has an opportunity cost. None of your selections should be made carelessly. Just my opinion, I suppose.

Who said anything about making picks carelessly?

 

[ShaHBucks]

I think Vincent Brown will take over as the Bolts #1 WR and since I think that is going to happen, and that their are 32 teams, that the odds are that he will be in the top-30 WRs this year.

I felt last year the plan was to have V-Brown as the #1 WR for San Deigo but the injury side-tracked his path for a year.

My observation is he has the best speed of the legit candidates of that group, he runs the best routes, and is the most atheletic or the WRs vying to be the #1 WR.

A broken bone doesn't concern me like a ligament injury would.

The Bolts O-Line did add a couple of OTs, Max Starks via FA and Fluker from the draft, and the offensive scheme switches from Norv Turner's five/seven stop drop vertical-stretch offense to getting the ball out quicker so a WR like Brown who runs precise routes and makes consistent catches is in prime position to become the go-to guy.

Add, Phil Rivers is highly productive even when he has what is considered an 'off' year which bodes well for his WRs.

I like Vincent Brown a lot this year and I do see him as a top-30 WR.

It what way, shape or form is he the athlete that Denario Alexander is?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Every pick you make has an opportunity cost. None of your selections should be made carelessly. Just my opinion, I suppose.

Sometimes I'm reaching for the peanuts but I grab the Eddie Royal draft sticker by accident.

 

[domvin]

Rivers has an extraordinarily quick release. It's not an orthodox throwing motion: he has kind of a low release point, and he throws without a full windup, almost like he's shotputting the ball instead of really throwing it.

The link Lavachebeadsman provided concerns how long the QB holds onto the ball in the pocket before throwing it; it's not about how quick the release is once the QB decides to throw. By the latter measure, Rivers is among the quickest in the NFL. (Obviously, a quick release isn't everything. But whatever a quick release is worth, Rivers has one.)

I don't know whether Rivers will bounce back this year. His offensive line was historically bad last season, and Rivers absolutely needs to be able to step up into the pocket in order to be effective. He lacks mobility, and he becomes very inaccurate when he has to throw on the run. He also lacks zip and the ball can sail on him when he throws off his back foot. So the first thing he needs for a bounce-back season is improved OL play, and the jury is out on whether he'll get it. The Chargers will start four new offensive linemen this season, and they're not a proven bunch.

The offense will change in other ways as well, and it's hard to anticipate what the results will be. Reportedly, the team will generally use shorter drops and quicker-developing routes this season. They'll also simplify the reads. Rivers pressed too hard last year and often ended up making bad decisions. It's too soon to tell whether that will be fixed, but it's hard to imagine things getting much worse in that regard.

All very good analysis and I thank you for your time writing it up. I still do have a question though: do you ever project Brown to have a top 30-WR season?

That's a hard question to answer. I think he's probably got about a 30% chance of being a top-30 WR this year. (A top-30 WR is basically an NFL WR1 on an average passing offense, or a strong NFL WR2 on a very good passing offense.) I think Danario Alexander has a better chance than Vincent Brown of being the Chargers' WR1 this season, but I don't think the distance between them is huge. I'd make Alexander something like a 60-40 favorite over Brown, and then when you factor in Keenan Allen and Malcom Floyd, that brings Brown down to around 30%.

Alexander is playing on a one-year contract, and who knows if he'll even make it through the entire year? So in 2014, Brown may not have Alexander to contend with, but Keenan Allen will be a year older, and there may be other draft picks or free-agent signings by then as well. But if I had to pick a number, I'd give Brown around a 40%-45% chance of being a top-30 WR in 2014.

If I were guessing whether Brown will ever have a top-30 season, I do think there's a better than 50% chance. But I don't know how much better. It's something I'm not accustomed to quantifying in those terms.

That's a fair quibble. Just how I look at things in a dynasty context. If they aren't going to ever post a top-30 season, then they probably aren't rosterable. I think your post is probably valid, because if Alexander goes down and Brown is force fed targets, he'll be a top 30 guy, clearly. I like Alexander more than you though. Health is my only concern there (and it's a big one).

The thing is, how do you know they or any player will never post a top 30 season? You eliminate quite a few guys in rookie drafts, eh? Vincent Brown has had a short, injury marred career thus far. To give up on him now, would be foolish.

Theres a slew of guys who have taken a little bit of time to break out. His adp makes him a nice upside gamble at this point..... And the aspect of rivers declining arm strength, if true, caters to a good route runner on short to intermediate routes, and not the long ball on D Alexander.

Since 1999, there are exactly 2 receivers who ran slower than 4.65 40 times and posted a top 30 fantasy WR season: Anquan Boldin and Mike Clayton. Do you think Brown is Anquan Boldin?

Do you think two years (one of which he missed the entire year) is enough to tell if a guy has a chance at being good?

 

[domvin]

Brown will never be fantasy relevant.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

Rivers has an extraordinarily quick release. It's not an orthodox throwing motion: he has kind of a low release point, and he throws without a full windup, almost like he's shotputting the ball instead of really throwing it.

The link Lavachebeadsman provided concerns how long the QB holds onto the ball in the pocket before throwing it; it's not about how quick the release is once the QB decides to throw. By the latter measure, Rivers is among the quickest in the NFL. (Obviously, a quick release isn't everything. But whatever a quick release is worth, Rivers has one.)

I don't know whether Rivers will bounce back this year. His offensive line was historically bad last season, and Rivers absolutely needs to be able to step up into the pocket in order to be effective. He lacks mobility, and he becomes very inaccurate when he has to throw on the run. He also lacks zip and the ball can sail on him when he throws off his back foot. So the first thing he needs for a bounce-back season is improved OL play, and the jury is out on whether he'll get it. The Chargers will start four new offensive linemen this season, and they're not a proven bunch.

The offense will change in other ways as well, and it's hard to anticipate what the results will be. Reportedly, the team will generally use shorter drops and quicker-developing routes this season. They'll also simplify the reads. Rivers pressed too hard last year and often ended up making bad decisions. It's too soon to tell whether that will be fixed, but it's hard to imagine things getting much worse in that regard.

All very good analysis and I thank you for your time writing it up. I still do have a question though: do you ever project Brown to have a top 30-WR season?

That's a hard question to answer. I think he's probably got about a 30% chance of being a top-30 WR this year. (A top-30 WR is basically an NFL WR1 on an average passing offense, or a strong NFL WR2 on a very good passing offense.) I think Danario Alexander has a better chance than Vincent Brown of being the Chargers' WR1 this season, but I don't think the distance between them is huge. I'd make Alexander something like a 60-40 favorite over Brown, and then when you factor in Keenan Allen and Malcom Floyd, that brings Brown down to around 30%.

Alexander is playing on a one-year contract, and who knows if he'll even make it through the entire year? So in 2014, Brown may not have Alexander to contend with, but Keenan Allen will be a year older, and there may be other draft picks or free-agent signings by then as well. But if I had to pick a number, I'd give Brown around a 40%-45% chance of being a top-30 WR in 2014.

If I were guessing whether Brown will ever have a top-30 season, I do think there's a better than 50% chance. But I don't know how much better. It's something I'm not accustomed to quantifying in those terms.

That's a fair quibble. Just how I look at things in a dynasty context. If they aren't going to ever post a top-30 season, then they probably aren't rosterable. I think your post is probably valid, because if Alexander goes down and Brown is force fed targets, he'll be a top 30 guy, clearly. I like Alexander more than you though. Health is my only concern there (and it's a big one).

The thing is, how do you know they or any player will never post a top 30 season? You eliminate quite a few guys in rookie drafts, eh? Vincent Brown has had a short, injury marred career thus far. To give up on him now, would be foolish.

Theres a slew of guys who have taken a little bit of time to break out. His adp makes him a nice upside gamble at this point..... And the aspect of rivers declining arm strength, if true, caters to a good route runner on short to intermediate routes, and not the long ball on D Alexander.

Since 1999, there are exactly 2 receivers who ran slower than 4.65 40 times and posted a top 30 fantasy WR season: Anquan Boldin and Mike Clayton. Do you think Brown is Anquan Boldin?

Do you think two years (one of which he missed the entire year) is enough to tell if a guy has a chance at being good?

No. But I can say that he would be the first wide receiver ever, in the history of the national football league, to weigh under 200 pounds and run slower than a 4.65 40 and post a top 30 WR season. Maybe you guys believe in him, but do you believe in him enough to make history?

 

[Tackling Dummies]

You do know that you don't have to have him on your roster?

 

[ldizzle]

His pro day says he ran a 4.57?

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

http://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2011/7/28/2302220/chargers-reach-agreement-with-wr-vincent-brown

A lot of his hype came from his Senior Bowl-he had a great Senior Bowl week, and Charlie Joiner effused praise on him after the draft.

Outside of injuries, his play has done nothing to deviate from his upside/potential. He had a nice Pre-season going before breaking his ankle....

Crazy to me that last seasons training camp hype would carry over. Some fantasy players never learn, eh?

Count me among the fantasy players who never learn. What I still like about Brown is that, as has already been stated, he was clearly the best WR on the team in 2012 pre-injury. And it wasn't a knee injury, lis franc, etc which would concern me more long-term. It's yet to be determined whether he's prone to injury or just had a run of bad luck.

Setting all of that aside, I'm simply trusting what my eyes have seen for the brief periods of time he's been healthy. He just seems to have a knack for making plays I'd rather roster that as my WR4 than Lance Moore, Sid Rice, etc.

Clearly the best on the team? Based on what? A few reports in training camp? He's done squat IMO to carry such hype. They liked him so much they brought DX back and drafted yet another WR...

 

[FantasyTrader]

His pro day says he ran a 4.57?

Which is a big part of why I said I'm just trusting my eyes. When Brown has been healthy AND had opportunity (rare to this point) he's gotten behind CB's often enough and displays good hands and body control. In a limited sample size he looks like a guy that plays much faster than 4.7.

Measurables matter all the way up to the point that they don't matter. Time will tell.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

I've never really seen the hype justification for Brown, but aside from that - I find this comparison one of the most amusing in the NFL:

Guy A:

6'5", 34 3/4" arms, 10" hands
4.4/4.5 speed
41.5" vert
4.1 short shuttle
best college season, 1781 yards (SEC)
lead the NFL in yards per target last year

Guy B:
5'11", 33" arms, 10.25" hands
4.7 speed
33.5" vert
4.25 short shuttle
best college season, 1352 yards (Mountain West Conference)

All knee injury jokes and realities aside, that's one heck of a competition. If he wants to win, Brown better be good with a sling and stone, cuz this is a David/Goliath from for anything except injury history standpoint (where he's not squeaky clean either BTW).