Why does bad weather favour the Bears? (1 Viewer)

[Zigg]

I keep reading how the Saints better hope it dosn't snow, why? The Saints have a very effective running game and a solid medium range passing game. The loss of the deep ball will hurt a bit, as Devery deep is a nice threat to have, but I figure wind and cold hurts the Bears worse. The passing games most effective weapon is the deep ball to Berrian, and Grossman was an abomination against the worst pass D in the NFL in his only bad weather experience.

So aside from where the home teams reside, why is bad weather an advantage for the Bears?

 

[Hamstring]

Because the Saints play indoors for most of the schedule. They aren't even used to some summer rain.

 

[culdeus]

Weather is the most overrated "advantage" to have. Teams don't practice in bad weather and play at most one or perhaps two bad weather games a year. It's not like they get "used" to it just by existing in the city driving their H2's around from valet stand to valet stand.

It's just something that the talking heads can talk about because they need a little stuff to fillibuster with.

 

[Hamstring]

The Bears do. They tore down the indoor facility because its for sissies.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Weather is the most overrated "advantage" to have. Teams don't practice in bad weather and play at most one or perhaps two bad weather games a year. It's not like they get "used" to it just by existing in the city driving their H2's around from valet stand to valet stand. It's just something that the talking heads can talk about because they need a little stuff to fillibuster with.

To a large degree, I agree. However, there is definitely something to seeing the Dolphins go to another AFC East team in the cold/snow, or seeing a team go into Denver, etc.There is definitely something to a team being out of their element that plays into it.

 

[saintsfan]

If it snows, I like Drew Brees over Rex Grossman even more than I do without snow.

Brees is a top 5 NFL QB. Who knows what Grossman is.

Do Bears fans really want to add snow to the list of things Grossman has to worry about?

 

[djcolts]

It depends on the way the teams are configured. In this case, I don't think the bad weather helps the Bears because the Saints have a good inside runner in McAllister, and bad weather may help out the Saints' biggest weakness - which is speed in the secondary.

 

[boubucarow]

It depends on the way the teams are configured. In this case, I don't think the bad weather helps the Bears because the Saints have a good inside runner in McAllister, and bad weather may help out the Saints' biggest weakness - which is speed in the secondary.

Snow will actually hurt each teams secondary unless that snow comes with strong winds.

 

[Pygmy Marmoset]

Temperatures being equal, the Saints would be better off if it snowed in my opinion.

That hush that falls over an area when it snows is because the snow dampens sound. Advantage: road team.

It interferes more with mediocre QBs than elite QBs. Advantage: Saints

But it being cold enough to snow means those hits from Urlacher and Briggs are going to hurt even more. Which means Reggie's going to put a couple on the ground, probably. It's the temperature that should concern the Saints, not the snow.

 

[djcolts]

It depends on the way the teams are configured. In this case, I don't think the bad weather helps the Bears because the Saints have a good inside runner in McAllister, and bad weather may help out the Saints' biggest weakness - which is speed in the secondary.

Snow will actually hurt each teams secondary unless that snow comes with strong winds.

But, I said NO's secondary speed, not the secondary itself. I would think that in bad weather, smarts may help more than speed.

 

[comfortably numb]

I heard Alex Brown on the Michael K show on ESPN yesterday afternoon.

Good interview.

He asked Brown if he felt bad weather would give them an advantage.

He said NO.

MK was suprised that felt Alex it would not be to their advantage to have bad weather.

Alex said it doesn't matter, we both have to play in that weather.

He said I spent 23 years of my life in Florida. I get cold too, Brees grew up around here and went to Purdue.

He basicaly said he thought it was a non issue, and that they both still have to play well no matter what.

 

[Pygmy Marmoset]

It depends on the way the teams are configured. In this case, I don't think the bad weather helps the Bears because the Saints have a good inside runner in McAllister, and bad weather may help out the Saints' biggest weakness - which is speed in the secondary.

Snow will actually hurt each teams secondary unless that snow comes with strong winds.

But, I said NO's secondary speed, not the secondary itself. I would think that in bad weather, smarts may help more than speed.

I actually agree with this. Sluggishness from the snow will play right into Fred Thomas's hands, so to speak. I think with the snow, Grossman will toss a few ducks up in the air and Thomas is pretty good at actual coverage, just not at recovery speed.McKenzie's pretty used to playing in the snow, so he should be fine.

 

[PahtyTom]

Peyton Manning sucks in the snow.

 

[valhallan]

Bears fans are just grasping for reasons to think they'll win.

The better team and better QB won those games between the Colts and Pats. The same will happen this Sunday in the NFC Championship.

 

[Rogi]

I think the biggest disadvantage for New Orleans is being a dome team that will be playing on a natural surface (snow or no snow). I think the surface could slow down Bush and their speedy receivers. Doesn't mean the Saints will lose necessarily, just means they're at a slight disadvantage from this aspect.

 

[David Yudkin]

IMO, it helps teams that are built on rushing and hard hitting defense and hurts teams that are high octane offenses that pass a lot, play indoors, and play on carpet. Overall, I believe that in bad weather and a slick or sloppy field, the game slows down, so intricate offenses have a much harder time on delicate timing routes and plays designed for speedy receivers.

Yes, I am aware that the defense can slip and that only receivers know where they are going, but with most plays built on timing, cuts, and a standard rhythm with the QB, all that gets off kilter.

If it were so easy to pass and rack up big yardage, wouldn't there be a lot of winter playoff games with great offensive totals? But in practice, aren't most winter, snowy, wet games marked by LOW offensive totals and fewer points scored?

So overall, if those items are indeed the case (and I certainly cannot prove them), it would seem that those all play into Chicago's hand more than New Orlean's.

For example, Brees has averaged only 87 yards passing and had just 1 TD in 4 games in games with precipitation over his career. While certainly a small sample size, those numbers pale in comparison to the numbers he posted this year in N.O.

 

[Slum Lord]

If you've ever worn cleats and ran on turf, you'd see how much of a difference that can make on guys like Bush, who can stop, start and cut on a dime. Bad weather will slow players like him, but for the majority of the team, it will make little difference.

 

[Pygmy Marmoset]

Peyton Manning sucks in the snow.

That's only because it doesn't snow until late in the season. Manning sucks after about week 10-12 whether it's snowing or not.

 

[3nOut]

I don't think it is the weather itself as much as it is the conditions. perhaps what they are saying is that Deuce may not be accustomed to having to control his body and footwork in these kind of conditions as much as he would have to indoors on terf. Reggie's cutbacks would not be as effective as well. WRs would have more difficulty following the ball if it is pushed by the wind, etc.

The closest comparison I could think of is taking a person from Hawaii who has never sen snow and letting him drive for the first time during a blizzard in Buffalo. The driving conditions not the driving itself would make it more difficult to control the car.

just my 2 cents.

 

[DPRugby]

Interesting stat...

Dome teams are 0-9 in Conference Championship games that are played outside in January.

That is all..

PS: I think the Saint's make it 1-9.

 

[David Yudkin]

Interesting stat...Dome teams are 0-9 in Conference Championship games that are played outside in January.That is all..PS: I think the Saint's make it 1-9.

Related to this, I think cold weather teams have a greater chance to play better INSIDE, than indoor teams have a chance to play better OUTSIDE IN LOUSY WEATHER.Tom Brady is 10-0 in games played inside.

 

[Doug B]

Interesting stat...Dome teams are 0-9 in Conference Championship games that are played outside in January.That is all..PS: I think the Saint's make it 1-9.

Is that like the stat about the Packers never losing a home playoff game? How did that one ever get beaten?

 

[Hamstring]

Everyone talks about the Saints O. They only have 1/3 of a good team. Slow that down (not even stop it) and the game is an L for the Saints.

Grossman will torch that secondary, after watching the Philly game again they are slower than most even on the rug.

 

[Doug B]

Everyone talks about the Saints O. They only have 1/3 of a good team. Slow that down (not even stop it) and the game is an L for the Saints.

Our special teams and defense have done what's needed, stats schmats. I'll take Michael Lewis as either my return man or my gunner on kick returns any time.I wouldn't over-rely on picking on Fred Thomas. That disadvantage was already fixed by scheme in the second half against the Eagles. If the field conditions are slick, neither team will get much going downfield anyway.

 

[DPRugby]

Interesting stat...Dome teams are 0-9 in Conference Championship games that are played outside in January.That is all..PS: I think the Saint's make it 1-9.

Is that like the stat about the Packers never losing a home playoff game? How did that one ever get beaten?

I'm not saying it dooms Dome teams, I'm just saying it's an interesting stat. I also think the Saint's will win regardless so...

 

[Doug B]

I'm not saying it dooms Dome teams, I'm just saying it's an interesting stat. I also think the Saint's will win regardless so...

Even though I quoted your post, didn't mean to come off as attacking you....The "dome teams" issue is kind of interesting. A lot of people will think that a dome team can't go downfield and spread out the offense outdoors in the weather, and that's why they lose. But that's not always been the case. For instance, the 1978-89 Oilers were built on the running-&-defense model. If any dome team was made to play in the elements, it Bum Phillips' charges behind Earl Campbell. They lost two AFC title games in Pittsburgh -- but can you really say that the fact that Houston played in a dome was a bigger factor than just the Steelers being a dam tough opponent?

 

[Liquid Tension]

Weather is the most overrated "advantage" to have. Teams don't practice in bad weather and play at most one or perhaps two bad weather games a year. It's not like they get "used" to it just by existing in the city driving their H2's around from valet stand to valet stand. It's just something that the talking heads can talk about because they need a little stuff to fillibuster with.

First, living in Chicago will make your blood thicker than living in NO. You are naturally more prepared to withstand the cold. Second, playing some and practicing some in the cold makes a big difference as you don't have to adjust. Also, the hits can really sting inthe cold and having experience playing in the cold helps. Do you think Manning going to cold weather spots doesn't impact his offense? The defense can break as well.Brees has a weak arm and Grossman has a strong arm (the opposite is true of accuracy), so Grossman is better suited to throw with some wind. I look at the defense when it is cold and that favors the Bears.The weather will not be frigid though so it will not be a large factor 30 degrees with 10 MPH winds

 

[valhallan]

Brees has a weak arm

What makes you think that?

 

[Hamstring]

Everyone talks about the Saints O. They only have 1/3 of a good team. Slow that down (not even stop it) and the game is an L for the Saints.

Our special teams and defense have done what's needed, stats schmats. I'll take Michael Lewis as either my return man or my gunner on kick returns any time.I wouldn't over-rely on picking on Fred Thomas. That disadvantage was already fixed by scheme in the second half against the Eagles. If the field conditions are slick, neither team will get much going downfield anyway.

I think the whole secondary can be had. They are all old.

 

[JohnnyU]

Peyton Manning sucks in the snow.

Just like in that Monday night game against Denver?

 

[shakeybarn]

I think the biggest disadvantage for New Orleans is being a dome team that will be playing on a natural surface (snow or no snow). I think the surface could slow down Bush and their speedy receivers. Doesn't mean the Saints will lose necessarily, just means they're at a slight disadvantage from this aspect.

Agree... don't think it's the weather, so much as the field/conditions... domes/turf vs sludgy grass... your offense depends on certain cuts and timing... and if everything is slow/adjusted... it can make for some defensive opportunities. Just look at the kicking stats between Gould/Carney in home vs road/dome vs outdoors, and turf/grass... VERY night and day.Nonetheless.. to me, this is a small tangible in the grand scheme of things. For Bears fans (like Colt fans), it's good thing that most/many doubt them, as opposed to being the upset special of the year.

 

[shakeybarn]

Interesting stat...Dome teams are 0-9 in Conference Championship games that are played outside in January.That is all..PS: I think the Saint's make it 1-9.

Is that like the stat about the Packers never losing a home playoff game? How did that one ever get beaten?

don't mean to pick on you Doug B... but I've yet to see a Saint fan on this board this week give in on one doubt/obstacle/etc... It seems EVERY aspect of this game is in New Orleans favor. I envy your dedication, but you need to be real about some aspects of this game and the team your facing. You all seem convinced your en route to three straight Super Bowl wins, and the birth of a dynasty.

 

[Doug B]

Agree... don't think it's the weather, so much as the field/conditions... domes/turf vs sludgy grass... your offense depends on certain cuts and timing...

... c'mon, now. We ain't the Mike Martz Rams teams. Deuce will be involved heavily if the field conditions are poor. And the Bears passing game is affected, too....

Liquid Tension ... "the blood thickens"? How exactly does that occur physiologically? Could a phlebotomist tell? A certain mind-over-matter thing taking place to cope with the cold, sure. But it's not more than that, unless you're an Eskimo.

 

[Doug B]

don't mean to pick on you Doug B... but I've yet to see a Saint fan on this board this week give in on one doubt/obstacle/etc... It seems EVERY aspect of this game is in New Orleans favor. I envy your dedication, but you need to be real about some aspects of this game and the team your facing. You all seem convinced your en route to three straight Super Bowl wins, and the birth of a dynasty.

I do think the Saints are going to have a 3-5 year window of contention. Otherwise, no.Many points I just don't think are logically legitimate. The "dome team on the road in January" argument is an example. If the 2006 Saints had themselves gone 0-9 in cold-weather games, that would be one thing. But why does the farings of the late 70s Oiler teams, for example, mean anything to the current Saints? Some dome teams lost in the past on the road in January ... for lots of different reasons. That might be a trend, but it's a non-predictive trend -- it tells us nothing about what will happen in the future in superficially similar situations.You know what I really think? The game will be a tightly-contested dogfight, with neither team having a clear advantage going in. Furthermore, I don't believe you can crunch stats and derive an advantage for either team. I posted as much already, but it may have gone unnoticed.What I'm mostly doing is countering poor understandings of the Saints personnel, strategies, tendencies, etc. If Bears fans don't come correct with that info, I'm not going to pretend to see their point -- I'll disagree and point out why. From your point of view, it only looks like I won't concede anything.

 

[Zigg]

Everyone talks about the Saints O. They only have 1/3 of a good team. Slow that down (not even stop it) and the game is an L for the Saints. Grossman will torch that secondary, after watching the Philly game again they are slower than most even on the rug.

Saints D ranked 11 in NFLBears O ranked 15 in NFLSaints gave up 3rd least points in the NFC. The D is not as bad as you think, especially against teams who struggle throwing the ball.

 

[bullitt]

Saints D ranked 11 in NFLBears O ranked 15 in NFLSaints gave up 3rd least points in the NFC. The D is not as bad as you think, especially against teams who struggle throwing the ball.

Grossman sure did not struggle to throw the ball last week.The Saints give up 4 points a game more than the Bears do, and the Bears score about 1 point more a game than the Saints. That's +5 points in the Bears favor.The Saints D is ranked 9th of 12 in the playoffsThe Bears D is ranked 3rd of 12 in the playoffs.Advantage Bears.The Saints Offense is ranked 1st in the playoffs.The Bears offense is ranked 2nd in the playoffs.Slight advantage Saints.For the regular season the Bears had the #1 ranked special teams.For the regular season the Saints had the #14 ranked special teams.Advantage Bears ( as long as Hester stops muffing those punts, then advantage Saints )The offenses are closely matched and the Bears have the advantage in Defense and Special teams.It would seem the Bears have a slight edge over the Saints in the playoffs.The Bears will come to play, and they will win.

 

[bullitt]

I almost forgot, the Weather does not favor any team, they both have to play in it, and allot of players on both teams come from warm weather.

Advantage none.

 

[jurb26]

The reality is this. The reason the team who has to travel and play in unusual weather is at a disadvantage is because they are the team with the worse record and typically the worse team when it comes to the playoffs. On top of that HF means something no matter what the weather does (that is why the home team is spotted 3 points). This game is no different.

Bad weather hurts defensive players more than anything else because they have to react to offensive players. I would say the minor edge goes to Chi in that NO is more dependent on speed than they are. Though I'm not sure this really matters a whole hell of a lot in the grand scheme of things.

 

[Moldy Potato]

Interesting stat...Dome teams are 0-9 in Conference Championship games that are played outside in January.

People keep mentioning this statistic, and it really cracks me up, because I don't think it has very much to do with weather.Think about the statistic. If a dome team is playing outside, that means two things:1. The dome team is playing a road game. Regardless of weather conditions, this means the dome team faces all the disadvantages of playing away from home that always apply.2. The dome team is playing against a higher-seeded team. There's probably a reason the home team won more games during the regular season.I think those two things are a much bigger factor than the weather itself.

 

[AB in DC]

The numbers that I saw the other day is that road teams have won about 1/3 of all conference championship games going back about two decades. So you're looking at 0-9 instead of 3-6 or so, which is still significant.

(edit: Actually, I think those were numbers since the merger in 1970.)

 

[FunkyPlutos]

I think there used to be an advantage to the "outdoor" team, but so many players change via free agency that it does not matter.

 

[David Yudkin]

The numbers that I saw the other day is that road teams have won about 1/3 of all conference championship games going back about two decades. So you're looking at 0-9 instead of 3-6 or so, which is still significant.(edit: Actually, I think those were numbers since the merger in 1970.)

I justed posted a brief review of championship game results in its own thread and in the 40 previous seasons (since the start of the Super Bowl era) road teams have gone 29-51 (.363). However, in the past 9 years the road teams have gone (10-8), so the the homefield advantage has been a lot less over the past few years.

 

[guderian]

Interesting stat...Dome teams are 0-9 in Conference Championship games that are played outside in January.That is all..PS: I think the Saint's make it 1-9.

Is that like the stat about the Packers never losing a home playoff game? How did that one ever get beaten?

don't mean to pick on you Doug B... but I've yet to see a Saint fan on this board this week give in on one doubt/obstacle/etc... It seems EVERY aspect of this game is in New Orleans favor. I envy your dedication, but you need to be real about some aspects of this game and the team your facing. You all seem convinced your en route to three straight Super Bowl wins, and the birth of a dynasty.

Bunk. We are realistic about our shot and if the Saints lose there will be 10,000 people to greet them when they get to the airport. I haven't seen one Saints fan argue that we'll win the Superbowl--let alone multiple Superbowls. I've given the Bears props for things and think they are the clear favorites to win. However, if you post something about the Bears and you don't bow down and admit that they are the greatest team ever and they are going to crush the Saints in every aspect of the game, then the pro-Bears crowd will jump on anything that you happen to think breaks the Saints way. The pro-Bears crowd likes to cite season-long stats and rankings. Well, the Bears were a much different team in the first half of the season versus the latter half of the season. The Saints had 28 new players and many new starters and have been gelling over the course of the season. They are a much different, better team then they were in week 1. If it's week 1, the Bears win, no doubt; but it isn't.

 

[guderian]

The Saints D is ranked 9th of 12 in the playoffsThe Bears D is ranked 3rd of 12 in the playoffs.Advantage Bears.The Saints Offense is ranked 1st in the playoffs.The Bears offense is ranked 2nd in the playoffs.Slight advantage Saints.

They've each played one playoff game and they each won 27-24.

 

[psychobillies]

The Bears will have the home field advantage, no doubt, but it won't be b/c of the weather. It's only going to be 30 degrees, not 30 below. All this stuff about thick blood and what not really isn't relevant to this level of cold.

Here in SE Louisiana, we would have HS playoff games in colder weather than this. We loved it. Once the games start, you don't even remember that it is cold out. We didn't need sleeves, or jackets and we would be sweating like usual after kickoff.

 

[boubucarow]

Interesting stat...Dome teams are 0-9 in Conference Championship games that are played outside in January.That is all..PS: I think the Saint's make it 1-9.

Is that like the stat about the Packers never losing a home playoff game? How did that one ever get beaten?

don't mean to pick on you Doug B... but I've yet to see a Saint fan on this board this week give in on one doubt/obstacle/etc... It seems EVERY aspect of this game is in New Orleans favor. I envy your dedication, but you need to be real about some aspects of this game and the team your facing. You all seem convinced your en route to three straight Super Bowl wins, and the birth of a dynasty.

Bunk. We are realistic about our shot and if the Saints lose there will be 10,000 people to greet them when they get to the airport. I haven't seen one Saints fan argue that we'll win the Superbowl--let alone multiple Superbowls. I've given the Bears props for things and think they are the clear favorites to win. However, if you post something about the Bears and you don't bow down and admit that they are the greatest team ever and they are going to crush the Saints in every aspect of the game, then the pro-Bears crowd will jump on anything that you happen to think breaks the Saints way. The pro-Bears crowd likes to cite season-long stats and rankings. Well, the Bears were a much different team in the first half of the season versus the latter half of the season. The Saints had 28 new players and many new starters and have been gelling over the course of the season. They are a much different, better team then they were in week 1. If it's week 1, the Bears win, no doubt; but it isn't.

Please go back to the game discussion thread and read through what Bears fans like myself and Snowman have posted about what we think of the game. Most Bears fans know that their team is wounded and know that Saints are a tough match up. The question about the defense is how much of the crappy play the last month is a result of the lack of Harris and Brown or was a strong facor the resting of most of the secondary and missing Tank Johnson, OGun, Alex Brown for portions of those games. The Seattle game was the first game Tank, Tillman, Vasher, and Todd Johnson all played in a while. We Bears fans are hoping that the Seattle game was a dress rehearsal of sorts and all the kinks are worked out by Sunday.I see a pretty good game and expect this game to be at least as interesting as the average Bears game this year. If it is, Saints fans are in for a treat, win or lose.And no, the weather doesn't favor the Bears in any sort of tangible way.

 

[culdeus]

Weather is the most overrated "advantage" to have. Teams don't practice in bad weather and play at most one or perhaps two bad weather games a year. It's not like they get "used" to it just by existing in the city driving their H2's around from valet stand to valet stand.

It's just something that the talking heads can talk about because they need a little stuff to fillibuster with.

First, living in Chicago will make your blood thicker than living in NO. You are naturally more prepared to withstand the cold. Second, playing some and practicing some in the cold makes a big difference as you don't have to adjust. Also, the hits can really sting inthe cold and having experience playing in the cold helps. Do you think Manning going to cold weather spots doesn't impact his offense? The defense can break as well.

Brees has a weak arm and Grossman has a strong arm (the opposite is true of accuracy), so Grossman is better suited to throw with some wind. I look at the defense when it is cold and that favors the Bears.

The weather will not be frigid though so it will not be a large factor 30 degrees with 10 MPH winds

If that's the case it's from the diet of brats vs. creole cooking, not the weather.

 

[saintsfan]

Saints D ranked 11 in NFLBears O ranked 15 in NFLSaints gave up 3rd least points in the NFC. The D is not as bad as you think, especially against teams who struggle throwing the ball.

Grossman sure did not struggle to throw the ball last week.The Saints give up 4 points a game more than the Bears do, and the Bears score about 1 point more a game than the Saints. That's +5 points in the Bears favor.The Saints D is ranked 9th of 12 in the playoffsThe Bears D is ranked 3rd of 12 in the playoffs.Advantage Bears.The Saints Offense is ranked 1st in the playoffs.The Bears offense is ranked 2nd in the playoffs.Slight advantage Saints.For the regular season the Bears had the #1 ranked special teams.For the regular season the Saints had the #14 ranked special teams.Advantage Bears ( as long as Hester stops muffing those punts, then advantage Saints )The offenses are closely matched and the Bears have the advantage in Defense and Special teams.It would seem the Bears have a slight edge over the Saints in the playoffs.The Bears will come to play, and they will win.

The Bears have the worst offense still left in the playoffs. Period. I don't care what your stats say.BTW, the Saints have the worst defense still left in the playoffs, so it works both ways. But please save me the stories of the explosive Bears. If the Bears had an offense as good as you think they do, they'd be undefeated. Grossman is a huge question mark and the primary reason why I think the Saints can win this game. I know what I'm going to get out of Brees. Do you have any idea what you're getting out of Grossman? The team with the better QB usually wins these games, unless the Bears defense is in the same league as the '85 Bears or the '00 Ravens. At this point in the season, I don't think they are.

 

[Hamstring]

No home teams usually win these games. Bears O is fine/good.

 

[bullitt]

The Bears have the worst offense still left in the playoffs. Period. I don't care what your stats say.

Reality sucks huh?? The Bears offense played better than the Colts , better than the Patriots, and they were equal with the Saints. Period, that is a fact, no matter what your homer blinders say.To answer your other Question, Yes, Brees is a more accomplished QB than Grossman, they are both at different stages in their careers, but at this point in time, Brees is the better QB. Grossman is no different than any other QB when they started their career, inconsistent. Almost all of the good QB's had that in the early part of their career's, the really good ones settle down and become great. Time will only tell if that is the path that Grossman takes. The Bears nemesis, Farve started out the same way, with the right coaching, he was able to become great, but he was one coaches meeting away from being a failure. I am not saying Grossman is now, or will ever be as good as Farve, but the potential is there. There seems to be a fine line between greatness and mediocrity, and only time will tell, which side Grossman falls on. So far, this year, he has played good/great more than he has sucked.