Why does Fitz get so much more love than Calvin? (1 Viewer)

[fantasyplayer]

Both are great players and I'd be happy to have either on my roster, but every dyansty ranking has Fitz #1 and Calvin somewhere between #2 and #4. Given the choice, I'd rather have Calvin.

In my (non PPR) league last season, Fitz scored only 9 more points, playing for a Super Bowl bound team with a potential HOF QB who likely won't be throwing him the ball much longer.

Calvin scored only 9 fewer points somewhat nicked up, on an 0-16 team with garbage at QB.

Last season seems relatively close to Fitz's ceiling and Calvin's floor.

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[the 'boys]

one of the best qbs in nfl history vs a 21 yr old rookie who has never played a snap is one reason...

 

[Instinctive]

Both are great players and I'd be happy to have either on my roster, but every dyansty ranking has Fitz #1 and Calvin somewhere between #2 and #4. Given the choice, I'd rather have Calvin.In my (non PPR) league last season, Fitz scored only 9 more points, playing for a Super Bowl bound team with a potential HOF QB who likely won't be throwing him the ball much longer. Calvin scored only 9 fewer points somewhat nicked up, on an 0-16 team with garbage at QB. Last season seems relatively close to Fitz's ceiling and Calvin's floor.Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Fitz gets 100+ catches.Calvin doesn't.And if you look at Calvin's yards per rec, its extraordinarily high. Its not something that is likely to be repeated. Even with a good QB his ceiling is 2-3 more TDs and 100-200 more yards. He just doesn't catch enough passes to lock in as a consistent scorer.Fitz OTOH catches over 6 balls per game. He makes lots of plays and is in a better situation. I think that in a couple years Calvin could be pulling in the passes like Fitz, but right now I want the guy who has 30+ more opportunities to take one to the house.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Fitz and Calvin put up roughly the same numbers last year, only Fitz played with a great QB in a prolific offense while Calvin played with a barrage of lousy QBs in a struggling offense.

What happens if Fitz has to play with a bad QB or if the Zona offense struggles? What happens if one of the Detroit QBs plays well or Detroit starts being able to actually pick up some first downs and get in the redzone more often?

Let's not mention that Fitz's QB is 100 years old and has a history of missing time, so there is very little guarantee that Fitz will continue to play with a great QB.

You figure, worst case scenario for Detroit already happened last year and Calvin already put up as good of numbers (in his second year no less) as Fitz has at any point in his career. So what happens when we get out of worst case scenario, or when Fitz gets out of best case scenario? And even if neither of these change, and the Detroit QBs continue sucking and Warner plays all 16 games, so what...they put up equal numbers in those situations already. The chance that those situations change is just a bonus.

 

[Knobs]

In redrafts, I think Calvin won't come close to Fitzgeralds' numbers. Calvin had an obscene % of team passing yards last year (don't recall the exact #). Roy was traded a few weeks into the season and the other options weren't anything remotely special. I also don't think he'll match his td total and will in fact be surprised if he gets more than 12.

I think Fitzgerald is a much, much safer pick in redrafts.

 

[kncks12]

Fitz is a great receiver who really played great in regular season last year and playoffs. He is coming into his own in one of best passing offenses in NFL.

Calvin was in the worst offense I have ever seen. He could not develop with a QB in the off season let alone during the season. He still put up solid numbers.

I really think Calvin in this 3rd year will be more consistent catching around 6 balls a game at minimum and have the threat of scoring on any play. The gap should close more this year and I believe Calvin will be the guy to have come next year.

I would love to have either of them on my team though, and I am fortunate to have Calvin on one of 3 big ones.

 

[rjv]

I have the 9th pick this year and was thinking on drafting fitz for my 1st rounder untill I saw he is on Madden 10. That alone will put calvin ahead of him for me this year. So I'll be passing on him and grabbing Moss or AJ.

So from the above posts, fitz does have a better QB but again this year Fitz has a a few negatives , Madden cover, the year after loosing a super bowl and having Warner as a QB who has a history of having injury problems.

Calvin I feel can produce with or without a Warner type QB.

 

[Dragon1952]

Fitz and Calvin put up roughly the same numbers last year, only Fitz played with a great QB in a prolific offense while Calvin played with a barrage of lousy QBs in a struggling offense.

whaa? Fitz - 119 receptions on 188 targets, 1853 yds, 17 TDs, 279 fantasy pts (standard scoring)CJ - 78 receptions on 151 targets, 1331 yds, 12 TD's, 196 fantasy pts (standard scoring)

 

[Ilov80s]

Both are great players and I'd be happy to have either on my roster, but every dyansty ranking has Fitz #1 and Calvin somewhere between #2 and #4. Given the choice, I'd rather have Calvin.

In my (non PPR) league last season, Fitz scored only 9 more points, playing for a Super Bowl bound team with a potential HOF QB who likely won't be throwing him the ball much longer.

Calvin scored only 9 fewer points somewhat nicked up, on an 0-16 team with garbage at QB.

Last season seems relatively close to Fitz's ceiling and Calvin's floor.

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Fitz gets 100+ catches.Calvin doesn't.

And if you look at Calvin's yards per rec, its extraordinarily high. Its not something that is likely to be repeated. Even with a good QB his ceiling is 2-3 more TDs and 100-200 more yards. He just doesn't catch enough passes to lock in as a consistent scorer.

Fitz OTOH catches over 6 balls per game. He makes lots of plays and is in a better situation. I think that in a couple years Calvin could be pulling in the passes like Fitz, but right now I want the guy who has 30+ more opportunities to take one to the house.

As a Lions homer, I dont think his ypc is going to change. Every time he touches the ball he is a threat to score. He has the longest legs I can ever remember seeing in football and his strides are crazy long. He looks like he isn't running that fast but he is just flying past people. Then add in the deep balls. Throw it up and Calvin can out jump any player in the league for it. I believe he is a special talent with plenty of room for improvement. If Stafford develops into a good QB and the offense improves, their will be more receptions for Calvin. Secondaries have no answer for Megatron.

 

[fatboyj711]

Fitz and Calvin put up roughly the same numbers last year, only Fitz played with a great QB in a prolific offense while Calvin played with a barrage of lousy QBs in a struggling offense.

whaa? Fitz - 119 receptions on 188 targets, 1853 yds, 17 TDs, 279 fantasy pts (standard scoring)

CJ - 78 receptions on 151 targets, 1331 yds, 12 TD's, 196 fantasy pts (standard scoring)

did not know there were any fantasy leagues that played through the nfl playoffs

 

[fatboyj711]

one of the best qbs in nfl history vs a 21 yr old rookie who has never played a snap is one reason...

while he didn't specify so in the thread title, i think the OP was referring to dynasty...

 

[David Yudkin]

Except for Roddy White last year, rookie QBs have historically been lead weights to elite receivers.

 

[Instinctive]

Fitz and Calvin put up roughly the same numbers last year, only Fitz played with a great QB in a prolific offense while Calvin played with a barrage of lousy QBs in a struggling offense.What happens if Fitz has to play with a bad QB or if the Zona offense struggles? What happens if one of the Detroit QBs plays well or Detroit starts being able to actually pick up some first downs and get in the redzone more often?Let's not mention that Fitz's QB is 100 years old and has a history of missing time, so there is very little guarantee that Fitz will continue to play with a great QB.You figure, worst case scenario for Detroit already happened last year and Calvin already put up as good of numbers (in his second year no less) as Fitz has at any point in his career. So what happens when we get out of worst case scenario, or when Fitz gets out of best case scenario? And even if neither of these change, and the Detroit QBs continue sucking and Warner plays all 16 games, so what...they put up equal numbers in those situations already. The chance that those situations change is just a bonus.

Fitz has had to play with a bad Qb (Leinart) and he still put up 100 rec that season. Also, when Leinart came in last year the first play was a 79 yard TD pass to Fitz. Thats more a fun fact than a prediction but the season of a lot of Leinart still led to a massive amount of catches.Worst case for Detroit happened last year, not worst case for Calvin. It is every Fantasy player's dream to have a receiver on a team consistently behind by 2+ TDs so they have to air it out to the only viable option every other play. Detroit's situation will improve, but that doesn't necessarily mean better numbers for Calvin.

Fitz is a great receiver who really played great in regular season last year and playoffs. He is coming into his own in one of best passing offenses in NFL. Calvin was in the worst offense I have ever seen. He could not develop with a QB in the off season let alone during the season. He still put up solid numbers. I really think Calvin in this 3rd year will be more consistent catching around 6 balls a game at minimum and have the threat of scoring on any play. The gap should close more this year and I believe Calvin will be the guy to have come next year. I would love to have either of them on my team though, and I am fortunate to have Calvin on one of 3 big ones.

See my situation distinction above...And Warner doesn't have a history of injury. With the Rams he missed time with a broken hand. Nobody is extra prone to breaking their hand lol. Then he didn't play full seasons because the Rams wanted to work in Bulger, then he went to the NYG in free agency and didn't play a full season because partway through they decided to get their QB of the future (Eli) into the games.Then he went to Zona, where his only time not spent as a starter has not been due to injury, but due to them trying to work in the QB of the future until they decided to just win now.But don't let facts get in your way. I'll take guys like Warner and Schaub who are labeled "injury prone" on the cover. When you read the book you find the facts that they are in fact not. (I mention Schaub b/c his missed games are due to concussions from illegal late hits that were penalized and then fined)Again, give me the guy who will have 30 more chances to go yard. Especially in a PPR, but also in a nonPPR.

 

[Maven]

Fitz more catches, in prime of career, better qb, better offense, better team, better hands, more accurate QB, still young, coming off better year, pass first offense, consistent, not injury prone...uhhhhhhhh what else?????

 

[Banger]

because he's a better wr on a better team.

 

[EBF]

I like Calvin a lot in dynasty leagues, but I think he's overvalued in redraft leagues. I had him on a couple of my teams last year and I noticed that he was very dependent on big plays. He would have 2 catches for 24 yards and you'd expect the worst, then he'd pull a rabbit out of his hat with a 60 yard TD catch. I would much rather have someone like Fitz who is going to catch 100 balls every season than take a chance that Calvin is going to hit enough home runs to be a top flight WR1 again.

Calvin is talented enough to be WR1 in the entire league, but I think the situation needs to improve before we'll see that.

 

[Dragon1952]

Fitz and Calvin put up roughly the same numbers last year, only Fitz played with a great QB in a prolific offense while Calvin played with a barrage of lousy QBs in a struggling offense.

whaa? Fitz - 119 receptions on 188 targets, 1853 yds, 17 TDs, 279 fantasy pts (standard scoring)

CJ - 78 receptions on 151 targets, 1331 yds, 12 TD's, 196 fantasy pts (standard scoring)

did not know there were any fantasy leagues that played through the nfl playoffs

oops.....my bad.....sorry.

 

[lod01]

QB. Plain and simple. Switch teams and everyone is talking about the completely unstoppable Calvin Johnson with Warner throwing to him.

 

[brutha]

Last season seems relatively close to Fitz's ceiling and Calvin's floor.Please correct me if I'm wrong.

1300/12 is Calvin's floor? you couldn't be more wrong. NO receiver has that as a floor and most will decline at least a little, even the best of them don't put that up every year - although he could (should) be in that neighborhood barring injury.

Fitz more catches, in prime of career, better qb, better offense, better team, better hands, more accurate QB, still young, coming off better year, pass first offense, consistent, not injury prone...uhhhhhhhh what else?????

um how about the question wasn't "why is Fitz a great WR or FF prospect" but "why is Fitz considered a healthy notch above calvin"PS to those saying "on a better team" - better NFL does NOT = better FF stats. it seems logical but it just doesn't work that way.all of that said I still like Fitz more, but only by a very little bit and would probably take whichever is cheaper in a draft.

 

[AllVolUT]

because he's a better wr on a better team.

Fitz on a better team? I agree, that's a no-brainer. Fitz the better WR? I'm not so sure. From a talent perspective, I'd put the two nearly neck-and-neck. JMO.

 

[Maven]

Last season seems relatively close to Fitz's ceiling and Calvin's floor.Please correct me if I'm wrong.

1300/12 is Calvin's floor? you couldn't be more wrong. NO receiver has that as a floor and most will decline at least a little, even the best of them don't put that up every year - although he could (should) be in that neighborhood barring injury.

Fitz more catches, in prime of career, better qb, better offense, better team, better hands, more accurate QB, still young, coming off better year, pass first offense, consistent, not injury prone...uhhhhhhhh what else?????

um how about the question wasn't "why is Fitz a great WR or FF prospect" but "why is Fitz considered a healthy notch above calvin"PS to those saying "on a better team" - better NFL does NOT = better FF stats. it seems logical but it just doesn't work that way.all of that said I still like Fitz more, but only by a very little bit and would probably take whichever is cheaper in a draft.

hahah actually the threads question was "Why does Fitz get so much more love than Calvin?"...read the thread title. I gave reasons why Fitz gets more love than Calvin. Also better teams = more quality opportunities to score than a bad team. Thats a fact.??????????????? You're way off base.

 

[brutha]

so are you on a variety of your alleged reasons. for ex "still young" and "not injury prone" apply to both (unless you consider one injury "injury prone"), they are/were both consistent, both are in their prime, etc.

and again: being on a better team doesn't equate to a better FF prospect.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Fitzgerald is higher because he's had fantastic fantasy seasons for four straight years, and while last year he was playing for a great team with a great QB, that certainly hasn't been the case for ALL of those years.

Year to year consistency is the reason for the difference. It's that simple. In fact, Fitz is really the ONLY receiver out there right now who has that qualification. You pay a premium for that warm feeling you get knowing that outside of some really ugly scenarios, Fitz is going to put up numbers for you.

That said, I do cringe every time someone mentions QB and team as reasons to downgrade CJ. Particularly for the QB, because rookie or no rookie, it would be VERY difficult for Calvin's QB situation to get worse than it was last year, and it obviously didn't slow him down then. I have a similar reaction when folks complain about his impressive YPC. There's a REASON his YPC numbers look like they do. No one can stop him. It's kinda like looking at Randy Moss' rookie numbers and saying "His YPC are too high - give me the guy with more catches!". Problem is, Randy's YPC STAYED high AND he got more catches, making him the best WR in the game. Wouldn't shock me to see the same with Calvin.

All in all, relative to what you have to pay in a redraft, I'd take Calvin. But quite honestly, I think they are BOTH usually bargains because a lot of folks are still hung up on golden age stud-rb theory.

 

[Instinctive]

so are you on a variety of your alleged reasons. for ex "still young" and "not injury prone" apply to both (unless you consider one injury "injury prone"), they are/were both consistent, both are in their prime, etc.

and again: being on a better team doesn't equate to a better FF prospect.

Bolded portion I agree with 100%. Which is why Calvin's last year was probably close to his ceiling. Every fantasy player's dream is a WR that gets the ball thrown deep to him every other play because his team is behind by 2+ TDs the entire game. The Lions have to improve, which probably means less targets for Calvin, or at least less long ones, and he already has a catch percentage that isn't the greatest. His YPR was around 18 iirc, and there is a tiny chance of that occurring again.Calvin was NOT consistent. Don't just say something without backing it up. Go look at per game stats...Fitz was incredibly more consistent than Calvin was.

 

[Instinctive]

Fitzgerald is higher because he's had fantastic fantasy seasons for four straight years, and while last year he was playing for a great team with a great QB, that certainly hasn't been the case for ALL of those years.Year to year consistency is the reason for the difference. It's that simple. In fact, Fitz is really the ONLY receiver out there right now who has that qualification. You pay a premium for that warm feeling you get knowing that outside of some really ugly scenarios, Fitz is going to put up numbers for you.That said, I do cringe every time someone mentions QB and team as reasons to downgrade CJ. Particularly for the QB, because rookie or no rookie, it would be VERY difficult for Calvin's QB situation to get worse than it was last year, and it obviously didn't slow him down then. I have a similar reaction when folks complain about his impressive YPC. There's a REASON his YPC numbers look like they do. No one can stop him. It's kinda like looking at Randy Moss' rookie numbers and saying "His YPC are too high - give me the guy with more catches!". Problem is, Randy's YPC STAYED high AND he got more catches, making him the best WR in the game. Wouldn't shock me to see the same with Calvin.All in all, relative to what you have to pay in a redraft, I'd take Calvin. But quite honestly, I think they are BOTH usually bargains because a lot of folks are still hung up on golden age stud-rb theory.

You are simply wrong about the yards per reception statement.If I ran a 50 yard go route every play even i would catch some and have a high yards per rec. It just isn't likely that he can achieve that again if the team improves. Now if you think they will be behind by 2+ TDs all the time and throwing it deep to Calvin every other play in the second half, then its a different story. But I think his situation to produce fantasy numbers was almost perfect last season and while the team improves this season, his situation does not.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

one of the best qbs in nfl history vs a 21 yr old rookie who has never played a snap is one reason...

/thread

 

[Grahamburn]

so are you on a variety of your alleged reasons. for ex "still young" and "not injury prone" apply to both (unless you consider one injury "injury prone"), they are/were both consistent, both are in their prime, etc.

and again: being on a better team doesn't equate to a better FF prospect.

Bolded portion I agree with 100%. Which is why Calvin's last year was probably close to his ceiling. Every fantasy player's dream is a WR that gets the ball thrown deep to him every other play because his team is behind by 2+ TDs the entire game. The Lions have to improve, which probably means less targets for Calvin, or at least less long ones, and he already has a catch percentage that isn't the greatest. His YPR was around 18 iirc, and there is a tiny chance of that occurring again.Calvin was NOT consistent. Don't just say something without backing it up. Go look at per game stats...Fitz was incredibly more consistent than Calvin was.

How can you say that 2008 was "close" to Calvin's ceiling yet point out that his numbers were extremely inconsistent? If he becomes consistent, wouldn't he potentially improve on those numbers? I'm ecstatic about his opportunity to actually develop some chemistry in training camp with his QBs instead of breaking a couple guys in off the street. He had that chemistry with Kitna, as evidenced by the two 100 yard games and 2 TDs to start the season, but Kitna was hurt in game 3 and didn't return to the team. I doubt a full training camp with Culpepper/Stafford will hurt Calvin.I can't find the stat, but I remember seeing something about the Lions being last in the league in red zone trips as well as time of possession, yet having one of the best percentages at converting those red zone chances. Half of Calvin's 12 TDs were on those possessions. I expect the Lions to improve basically everywhere causing those chances to increase, which would give Calvin more potential for TDs.

1331 and 12 isn't close to Calvin's ceiling. I don't see his targets decreasing from the 151 he had in 2008(why throw it to him less?), but with more QB consistency his catch percentage should definitely improve. Scary. He's my WR1 for this season and beyond.

 

[jurb26]

one of the best qbs in nfl history vs a 21 yr old rookie who has never played a snap is one reason...

/thread

If we're talking about dynasty here then this is an advantage to Calvin IMO. Warner is what, 37 now? For redraft I see this a a huge advantage but I don't suspect that advantage will be around much longer.

 

[Lash]

0-16 ... rookie QB ... no other WR on the team ... stingy defenses in division ... running team (new coach)

super bowl runner-up ... HOF QB ... superstar WR on other side of field ... sieve defenses in division ... passing team

other than that i have no idea why Fitz is above CJ2

 

[gonzobill5]

Surprised that no one has mentioned that Fitz will continue to split his production with 'quan. On one hand, this is a good thing, and keeps him productive even against very good defenses. He'll be more consistent than CJ in 09. But on the other hand, this prevents him from having a "season for the ages" type of year.

I can't see Fitz doing significantly more than 100/1400/11 which is great - BUT i think CJ has the talent and opportunity to score something ridiculous like 20 TDs. This is why CJ will be on more of my teams (plus, I can have him in the 2nd and still feel ok about getting Anquan in the 3rd).

 

[lyon812]

one of the best qbs in nfl history vs a 21 yr old rookie who has never played a snap is one reason...

/thread

If we're talking about dynasty here then this is an advantage to Calvin IMO. Warner is what, 37 now? For redraft I see this a a huge advantage but I don't suspect that advantage will be around much longer.

Warner is irrelevant. Fitzgerald and Boldin both put up excellent numbers before him, with incompetent QBs similar to Detroit's. Regardless, in terms of dynasty, people are hoping that Johnson does what Fitz has already done (and will continue to do for several years). I'd say that many would feel a proven commodity is superior to a potential one. Johnson's definitely someone you'd absolutely love to have, but I can't see any reason to choose him before Fitz except for CJ being 2 years younger. And that isn't a reason at all.

 

[Maven]

Fitz also being in a "prime breakout year for WRs" might also be one reason to consider him over Calvin.

 

[Instinctive]

Fitz also being in a "prime breakout year for WRs" might also be one reason to consider him over Calvin.

That was a really interesting read.It may be worth it to do some other statistical tests, if I have free time I may do some chi square or hypotheses tests and see if any are effective for determining "breakouts"

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Fitzgerald is higher because he's had fantastic fantasy seasons for four straight years, and while last year he was playing for a great team with a great QB, that certainly hasn't been the case for ALL of those years.Year to year consistency is the reason for the difference. It's that simple. In fact, Fitz is really the ONLY receiver out there right now who has that qualification. You pay a premium for that warm feeling you get knowing that outside of some really ugly scenarios, Fitz is going to put up numbers for you.That said, I do cringe every time someone mentions QB and team as reasons to downgrade CJ. Particularly for the QB, because rookie or no rookie, it would be VERY difficult for Calvin's QB situation to get worse than it was last year, and it obviously didn't slow him down then. I have a similar reaction when folks complain about his impressive YPC. There's a REASON his YPC numbers look like they do. No one can stop him. It's kinda like looking at Randy Moss' rookie numbers and saying "His YPC are too high - give me the guy with more catches!". Problem is, Randy's YPC STAYED high AND he got more catches, making him the best WR in the game. Wouldn't shock me to see the same with Calvin.All in all, relative to what you have to pay in a redraft, I'd take Calvin. But quite honestly, I think they are BOTH usually bargains because a lot of folks are still hung up on golden age stud-rb theory.

You are simply wrong about the yards per reception statement.If I ran a 50 yard go route every play even i would catch some and have a high yards per rec. It just isn't likely that he can achieve that again if the team improves. Now if you think they will be behind by 2+ TDs all the time and throwing it deep to Calvin every other play in the second half, then its a different story. But I think his situation to produce fantasy numbers was almost perfect last season and while the team improves this season, his situation does not.

Wrong in what way? You don't think teams having trouble containing Johnson has a lot to do with his YPC? You don't think Randy Moss' YPC was good in part because he's a damn good receiver and very difficult to stop over the top?If your basic point is that the type of passes a guy gets thrown to him has an influence on his YPC, I agree 100%. I think Calvin's YPC might drop a BIT because he'll have additional short passes thrown his way. However, Calvin is the best deep threat in the game, and Randy Moss is the only guy even close (you could make an argument for him). I don't see Calvin's high YPC as a cause for alarm any more than I see Steve Smith's high YPC or Randy Moss' high YPC or Greg Jennings' high YPC as cause for alarm. They are excellent receivers who are very good at catching deep balls. Are the packers going to stop throwing bombs to Jennings? Are the Pats going to stop throwing bombs to Moss? Don't think so. And Detroit isn't going to stop throwing bombs to Johnson. Why would they? He's the best thing they have going for them.An no, if you ran go routes all day, NFL DBs would eat you up and your YPC would be an undefined 0/0. That doesn't happen to Calvin. I also can't agree that Calvin's situation last year was "almost perfect". In fact, I'd call it average at best. Calvin is a red zone MONSTER and Detroit was barely IN the red zone last year. Not exactly ideal. He was in a lot of situations that call for the big bomb last year, I grant you that. But this year, if the team is better, they will be in the red zone more often (and will have the ball more often in general) which should more than balance out the fewer desperation attempts. In addition, as previously mentioned, CJ was catching balls thrown by utter rejects last year. He won't have an all-pro throwing to him THIS year, but whoever it is, he won't be any worse than last year. He may still have a reject throwing to him, but at least the reject will be in better shape and will have more experience in the system. And if he DOESN'T have a reject throwing to him, he'll have the guy that BEAT the slightly improved reject throwing to him. Either way, tough to go backwards.Where was Randy Moss' worst year? In Oakland, playing for a crappy team that was always behind and liked to throw deep. That situation didn't really seem to be "almost perfect" for him.Again, I LOVE Fitzgerald and would take him high in a heart-beat. There isn't a guy LESS likely to bust in the entire game IMO. I just happen to like Calvin a whole bunch too. And if you asked me which guy was most likely to catch 20+ TDs next year, it would be Calvin. I don't necessarily think he will, but he has as good a chance as anybody.

 

[Zow]

2 reasons:

Fitz has done it for years, Calvin for one.

Fitz has one of the best QBs ever throwing him the ball, Calvin a rookie.

Fantasty drafts thrive on consistency. Fitz gives you that. While Calvin is an absolute monster, is it really that difficult to see why more have Fitz ranked top overall? It really isn't rocket science.

 

[Instinctive]

Fitzgerald is higher because he's had fantastic fantasy seasons for four straight years, and while last year he was playing for a great team with a great QB, that certainly hasn't been the case for ALL of those years.Year to year consistency is the reason for the difference. It's that simple. In fact, Fitz is really the ONLY receiver out there right now who has that qualification. You pay a premium for that warm feeling you get knowing that outside of some really ugly scenarios, Fitz is going to put up numbers for you.That said, I do cringe every time someone mentions QB and team as reasons to downgrade CJ. Particularly for the QB, because rookie or no rookie, it would be VERY difficult for Calvin's QB situation to get worse than it was last year, and it obviously didn't slow him down then. I have a similar reaction when folks complain about his impressive YPC. There's a REASON his YPC numbers look like they do. No one can stop him. It's kinda like looking at Randy Moss' rookie numbers and saying "His YPC are too high - give me the guy with more catches!". Problem is, Randy's YPC STAYED high AND he got more catches, making him the best WR in the game. Wouldn't shock me to see the same with Calvin.All in all, relative to what you have to pay in a redraft, I'd take Calvin. But quite honestly, I think they are BOTH usually bargains because a lot of folks are still hung up on golden age stud-rb theory.

You are simply wrong about the yards per reception statement.If I ran a 50 yard go route every play even i would catch some and have a high yards per rec. It just isn't likely that he can achieve that again if the team improves. Now if you think they will be behind by 2+ TDs all the time and throwing it deep to Calvin every other play in the second half, then its a different story. But I think his situation to produce fantasy numbers was almost perfect last season and while the team improves this season, his situation does not.

Wrong in what way? You don't think teams having trouble containing Johnson has a lot to do with his YPC? You don't think Randy Moss' YPC was good in part because he's a damn good receiver and very difficult to stop over the top?If your basic point is that the type of passes a guy gets thrown to him has an influence on his YPC, I agree 100%. I think Calvin's YPC might drop a BIT because he'll have additional short passes thrown his way. However, Calvin is the best deep threat in the game, and Randy Moss is the only guy even close (you could make an argument for him). I don't see Calvin's high YPC as a cause for alarm any more than I see Steve Smith's high YPC or Randy Moss' high YPC or Greg Jennings' high YPC as cause for alarm. They are excellent receivers who are very good at catching deep balls. Are the packers going to stop throwing bombs to Jennings? Are the Pats going to stop throwing bombs to Moss? Don't think so. And Detroit isn't going to stop throwing bombs to Johnson. Why would they? He's the best thing they have going for them.An no, if you ran go routes all day, NFL DBs would eat you up and your YPC would be an undefined 0/0. That doesn't happen to Calvin. I also can't agree that Calvin's situation last year was "almost perfect". In fact, I'd call it average at best. Calvin is a red zone MONSTER and Detroit was barely IN the red zone last year. Not exactly ideal. He was in a lot of situations that call for the big bomb last year, I grant you that. But this year, if the team is better, they will be in the red zone more often (and will have the ball more often in general) which should more than balance out the fewer desperation attempts. In addition, as previously mentioned, CJ was catching balls thrown by utter rejects last year. He won't have an all-pro throwing to him THIS year, but whoever it is, he won't be any worse than last year. He may still have a reject throwing to him, but at least the reject will be in better shape and will have more experience in the system. And if he DOESN'T have a reject throwing to him, he'll have the guy that BEAT the slightly improved reject throwing to him. Either way, tough to go backwards.Where was Randy Moss' worst year? In Oakland, playing for a crappy team that was always behind and liked to throw deep. That situation didn't really seem to be "almost perfect" for him.Again, I LOVE Fitzgerald and would take him high in a heart-beat. There isn't a guy LESS likely to bust in the entire game IMO. I just happen to like Calvin a whole bunch too. And if you asked me which guy was most likely to catch 20+ TDs next year, it would be Calvin. I don't necessarily think he will, but he has as good a chance as anybody.

1. Randy Moss didn't run the routes on Oakland, he played with neither effort nor heart.2. Calvin's ypr is exhorbitantly high, not just high. VJax is another guy overvalued becaus eof a fluke YPR.3. I kind of understand your "red zone threat" statement, but that is an overrated statement already. Name the best red zone threat guy you think (after calvin you obviously love him) and how many red zone TDs he got. Its less than you would think.4. I woudl say that his fantasy situation may be stable then. A wash. Neither better nor worse.5. Fitz is still much mroe consistent. If you think Calvin is suddenyl going to become that consistent then it means nothing, but I just don't see him catching 30+ more passes.Look, I agree tht he's great. But Fitz has better hands, better consistency, and less attention from the defense because of Boldin. He's absolutely a better pick than Calvin.

 

[AllVolUT]

Look, I agree tht he's great. But Fitz has better hands, better consistency, and less attention from the defense because of Boldin. He's absolutely a better pick than Calvin.

I could agree with the first sentence. However, Johnson backers could argue that Calvin is bigger, stronger, and faster than Fitz. Personally, I'd probably roll with Calvin because with his ADP, you're more likely to be able to pair him with a better RB than you would if you drafted Fitzgerald.

 

[Instinctive]

Look, I agree tht he's great. But Fitz has better hands, better consistency, and less attention from the defense because of Boldin. He's absolutely a better pick than Calvin.

I could agree with the first sentence. However, Johnson backers could argue that Calvin is bigger, stronger, and faster than Fitz. Personally, I'd probably roll with Calvin because with his ADP, you're more likely to be able to pair him with a better RB than you would if you drafted Fitzgerald.

I don't think this has anything to do with ADP or value in a draft. Its about who will be better. And Calvin isn't bigger...maybe heavier, but Fitz is a pretty big dude.I won't have either because I have pick 1 in a 12 team. But if I had the choice, no othe rplayers involved, I would take Fitz. Wouldn't you?

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Fitzgerald is higher because he's had fantastic fantasy seasons for four straight years, and while last year he was playing for a great team with a great QB, that certainly hasn't been the case for ALL of those years.Year to year consistency is the reason for the difference. It's that simple. In fact, Fitz is really the ONLY receiver out there right now who has that qualification. You pay a premium for that warm feeling you get knowing that outside of some really ugly scenarios, Fitz is going to put up numbers for you.That said, I do cringe every time someone mentions QB and team as reasons to downgrade CJ. Particularly for the QB, because rookie or no rookie, it would be VERY difficult for Calvin's QB situation to get worse than it was last year, and it obviously didn't slow him down then. I have a similar reaction when folks complain about his impressive YPC. There's a REASON his YPC numbers look like they do. No one can stop him. It's kinda like looking at Randy Moss' rookie numbers and saying "His YPC are too high - give me the guy with more catches!". Problem is, Randy's YPC STAYED high AND he got more catches, making him the best WR in the game. Wouldn't shock me to see the same with Calvin.All in all, relative to what you have to pay in a redraft, I'd take Calvin. But quite honestly, I think they are BOTH usually bargains because a lot of folks are still hung up on golden age stud-rb theory.

You are simply wrong about the yards per reception statement.If I ran a 50 yard go route every play even i would catch some and have a high yards per rec. It just isn't likely that he can achieve that again if the team improves. Now if you think they will be behind by 2+ TDs all the time and throwing it deep to Calvin every other play in the second half, then its a different story. But I think his situation to produce fantasy numbers was almost perfect last season and while the team improves this season, his situation does not.

Wrong in what way? You don't think teams having trouble containing Johnson has a lot to do with his YPC? You don't think Randy Moss' YPC was good in part because he's a damn good receiver and very difficult to stop over the top?If your basic point is that the type of passes a guy gets thrown to him has an influence on his YPC, I agree 100%. I think Calvin's YPC might drop a BIT because he'll have additional short passes thrown his way. However, Calvin is the best deep threat in the game, and Randy Moss is the only guy even close (you could make an argument for him). I don't see Calvin's high YPC as a cause for alarm any more than I see Steve Smith's high YPC or Randy Moss' high YPC or Greg Jennings' high YPC as cause for alarm. They are excellent receivers who are very good at catching deep balls. Are the packers going to stop throwing bombs to Jennings? Are the Pats going to stop throwing bombs to Moss? Don't think so. And Detroit isn't going to stop throwing bombs to Johnson. Why would they? He's the best thing they have going for them.An no, if you ran go routes all day, NFL DBs would eat you up and your YPC would be an undefined 0/0. That doesn't happen to Calvin. I also can't agree that Calvin's situation last year was "almost perfect". In fact, I'd call it average at best. Calvin is a red zone MONSTER and Detroit was barely IN the red zone last year. Not exactly ideal. He was in a lot of situations that call for the big bomb last year, I grant you that. But this year, if the team is better, they will be in the red zone more often (and will have the ball more often in general) which should more than balance out the fewer desperation attempts. In addition, as previously mentioned, CJ was catching balls thrown by utter rejects last year. He won't have an all-pro throwing to him THIS year, but whoever it is, he won't be any worse than last year. He may still have a reject throwing to him, but at least the reject will be in better shape and will have more experience in the system. And if he DOESN'T have a reject throwing to him, he'll have the guy that BEAT the slightly improved reject throwing to him. Either way, tough to go backwards.Where was Randy Moss' worst year? In Oakland, playing for a crappy team that was always behind and liked to throw deep. That situation didn't really seem to be "almost perfect" for him.Again, I LOVE Fitzgerald and would take him high in a heart-beat. There isn't a guy LESS likely to bust in the entire game IMO. I just happen to like Calvin a whole bunch too. And if you asked me which guy was most likely to catch 20+ TDs next year, it would be Calvin. I don't necessarily think he will, but he has as good a chance as anybody.

1. Randy Moss didn't run the routes on Oakland, he played with neither effort nor heart.2. Calvin's ypr is exhorbitantly high, not just high. VJax is another guy overvalued becaus eof a fluke YPR.3. I kind of understand your "red zone threat" statement, but that is an overrated statement already. Name the best red zone threat guy you think (after calvin you obviously love him) and how many red zone TDs he got. Its less than you would think.4. I woudl say that his fantasy situation may be stable then. A wash. Neither better nor worse.5. Fitz is still much mroe consistent. If you think Calvin is suddenyl going to become that consistent then it means nothing, but I just don't see him catching 30+ more passes.Look, I agree tht he's great. But Fitz has better hands, better consistency, and less attention from the defense because of Boldin. He's absolutely a better pick than Calvin.

1. Agreed. That was a big part of the failure. But my point is, being on a bad team isn't necessarily the ideal scenario for a receiver, which is the category you put Calvin in last year. We can just disagree on that one.2. His YPR was more than a yard lower than Steve Smith's, way lower than Randy Moss' first year, and within a yard of Jennings. Don't see anyone knocking those guys for having a YPR too high. Having a high YPR is a GOOD thing, spinning it as a bad thing just doesn't fly with me, UNLESS you are talking about a guy who is completely one-dimensional and NOT the focus of his team's offense (you might put Jackson and Burleson in this category). Randy Moss' rookie and 2nd years are just the perfect counter-example for this concern and there is not a guy who's game is closer to Moss' than Jackson. Both are basically unstoppable deep threats and ridiculous red-zone options.3/4. Fair enough, but red zone or not, having the ball more is a good thing. There are always arguments back and forth about whether it is better to be on a bad team or good one as a receiver. A good case can be made in either direction. But I don't think the real ideal scenario is when both the offense and the defense are really bad (which is where Detroit was last year). When Randy Moss was breaking records, he was on a great team. When Jerry Rice was breaking records, he was playing for a great team. When Marvin Harrison was dominating the league, he was on a team with a great offense (with a suspect defense). When Larry Fitzgerald had his BEST season, he was on a very good offensive team (with a suspect defense). We very rarely see outstanding individual performances from wideouts on bad teams. We see a lot of talk about it, and we often see SOLID performances from bad teams (like Calvin's last year), but the real barnburning seasons come from good to great teams. Now a lot of folks will point to all of these examples as a reason to AVOID CJ, and I get that. I'm just saying we have NOT seen the best of Calvin Johnson yet, IMO. He's a nearly unique talent who had a very very good season in circumstances that I think were far less than ideal. There isn't any reason to think that Detroit couldn't be heading closer to that ideal scenario than getting further away from it, and IMO there isn't anything stopping CJ from catching more balls next year (like Moss' catches did pretty consistently for his first 6 years).5. For the most part, I agree. Fitz is the model of consistency for a wideout, they just don't get much more consistent outside of Jerry Rice in his prime. We don't really know for sure if Calvin can get there. He's only had two seasons. One was mediocre (but pretty darn good for a rookie historically speaking) and one was fantastic.But as for the overall comparison, I think a lot of folks point to Fitz as the "obvious pick" for reasons that can really be argued either way. Fitz has better hands. OK, maybe, don't see a ton of drops from Calvin, but OK. But if you talk hands, you need to talk speed and height as well to be fair and we know which way that would go. Better consistency. So far - sure- as mentioned Fitz is really unparalleled there. Then we have the common "less attention from the defense because of Boldin". You can totally take the complete opposite read from that statement depending on which side you fall on. Less attention yes, but then there could be fewer opportunities as well. Then the QB and the team, which we've discussed. I say Calvin's situation is only going to get better, and Fitz's was pretty darn good last year and isn't likely to get much better.JMO.

 

[FantasyTrader]

They are both so incredibly talented. Fitz is just an amazing specimen - can absolutely take over a game. And Calvin, good Lord - I've never witnessed an NFL WR do more with less supporting cast than 2009.

Frankly, I think being able to argue vehemently one way or the other is a biased POV.

 

[Knobs]

Fitz also being in a "prime breakout year for WRs" might also be one reason to consider him over Calvin.

This may be worthy of a thread of its own.

 

[AllVolUT]

Look, I agree tht he's great. But Fitz has better hands, better consistency, and less attention from the defense because of Boldin. He's absolutely a better pick than Calvin.

I could agree with the first sentence. However, Johnson backers could argue that Calvin is bigger, stronger, and faster than Fitz. Personally, I'd probably roll with Calvin because with his ADP, you're more likely to be able to pair him with a better RB than you would if you drafted Fitzgerald.

I don't think this has anything to do with ADP or value in a draft. Its about who will be better. And Calvin isn't bigger...maybe heavier, but Fitz is a pretty big dude.I won't have either because I have pick 1 in a 12 team. But if I had the choice, no othe rplayers involved, I would take Fitz. Wouldn't you?

I don't mean to nitpick, but Calvin is bigger. About 2" taller and 20lbs heavier. But you're right, if ADP weren't involved I would be more inclined to take Fitzgerald. Barely though.

 

[dickey moe]

Good thread; much better than most in here

 

[Instinctive]

Look, I agree tht he's great. But Fitz has better hands, better consistency, and less attention from the defense because of Boldin. He's absolutely a better pick than Calvin.

I could agree with the first sentence. However, Johnson backers could argue that Calvin is bigger, stronger, and faster than Fitz. Personally, I'd probably roll with Calvin because with his ADP, you're more likely to be able to pair him with a better RB than you would if you drafted Fitzgerald.

I don't think this has anything to do with ADP or value in a draft. Its about who will be better. And Calvin isn't bigger...maybe heavier, but Fitz is a pretty big dude.I won't have either because I have pick 1 in a 12 team. But if I had the choice, no othe rplayers involved, I would take Fitz. Wouldn't you?

I don't mean to nitpick, but Calvin is bigger. About 2" taller and 20lbs heavier. But you're right, if ADP weren't involved I would be more inclined to take Fitzgerald. Barely though.

My bad there then. They are both really big. I incorrectly recalled Fitz beign taller than he must be. They both jump like freaks too.I think somebody raised a point of catch percentage: Yes, Calvin doesn't have many drops, but Fitz still catches a lot of passes that Calvin doesn't. Any ball within 3-5 yards of Fitz he could very well grab, whereas Calvin may not get it...and it wouldn't affect his catch percentage or dropped balls I believe. And I agree on the barely. It's definitely not a massive gap we're talking about. Maybe it's a bit wider than barely for me: Like Fitz is 1a and Calvin is 1c and Andre is 2. (the "c" isn't a typo)

 

[Grahamburn]

Calvin's catch percentage in 2008 was likely related to his QB situation and not his propensity to drop passes.

I'm inclined to think that catch percentage will go up this season, and if Calvin's targets stay the same he's going to approach 1,500 yards and mid double digit TDs.

 

[David Yudkin]

Calvin's catch percentage in 2008 was likely related to his QB situation and not his propensity to drop passes.I'm inclined to think that catch percentage will go up this season, and if Calvin's targets stay the same he's going to approach 1,500 yards and mid double digit TDs.

It depends who his QB is. Look up the numbers of top WR paired with rookie QBs and you will find that the WRs will suffer because the rookie QB's numbers are generally not very good. Roddy White and Matt Ryan were a notable exception last year, but generally speaking rookie QB don't put up good numbers. If Stafford is the guy for most of the year this year, I think Megatron will be in for a long season production wise. He won't be terrible, but I would think he'd be a Top 10 guy instead of a Top 3 guy, similar to Randy MOss with Matt Cassel last year (who I know was not a rookie but had the same effect as one).

 

[fantasyplayer]

0-16 ... rookie QB ... no other WR on the team ... stingy defenses in division ... running team (new coach)super bowl runner-up ... HOF QB ... superstar WR on other side of field ... sieve defenses in division ... passing teamother than that i have no idea why Fitz is above CJ2

These facts (other than the new coach), plus the fact that they produced almost identical totals last season, are reasons I tend to favor Calvin long-term. I believe that Calvin is the more likely of the two to improve on last season's results.

 

[Maven]

Calvin's catch percentage in 2008 was likely related to his QB situation and not his propensity to drop passes.I'm inclined to think that catch percentage will go up this season, and if Calvin's targets stay the same he's going to approach 1,500 yards and mid double digit TDs.

Calvin has a history of drops. His career rate is like 51%. He doesn't have very good hands. This is well documented.

 

[Addai's Adidas]

Calvin's catch percentage in 2008 was likely related to his QB situation and not his propensity to drop passes.I'm inclined to think that catch percentage will go up this season, and if Calvin's targets stay the same he's going to approach 1,500 yards and mid double digit TDs.

Calvin has a history of drops. His career rate is like 51%. He doesn't have very good hands. This is well documented.

When you are constantly jumping up and reaching over your head backward to catch a ball that was underthrown, you are going to miss some.

 

[Maven]

Calvin's catch percentage in 2008 was likely related to his QB situation and not his propensity to drop passes.I'm inclined to think that catch percentage will go up this season, and if Calvin's targets stay the same he's going to approach 1,500 yards and mid double digit TDs.

Calvin has a history of drops. His career rate is like 51%. He doesn't have very good hands. This is well documented.

When you are constantly jumping up and reaching over your head backward to catch a ball that was underthrown, you are going to miss some.

Do you want to see coaches quotes and articles supporting this fact?