Why I Like Ryan Moats This Year (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

Moats' first year stats:

                +--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2005 phi |   7 |    55    278    5.1    3 |     4      7   1.8    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   |   7 |    55    278    5.1    3 |     4      7   1.8    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+Note the 5.1 Y/AHere's his gamelog:

+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  7  sdg  |    0     0  |     0  |  0 || 12  gnb  |    6    24  |     0  |  0 || 13  sea  |   10    26  |     3  |  0 || 14  nyg  |   11   114  |     0  |  2 || 15  ram  |   12    78  |     0  |  1 || 16  ari  |    9    13  |     0  |  0 || 17  was  |    7    23  |     4  |  0 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  TOTAL   |   55   278  |     7  |  3 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+A couple of big games in his rookie season...sometimes an indicator of a "breakout" player.Now let's look at Brittlebrook's last two seasons:

               +--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2004 phi |  13 |   177    812    4.6    3 |    73    703   9.6    6 || 2005 phi |  12 |   156    617    4.0    3 |    61    616  10.1    4 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+Looks like he's averaging only about 12.5 games played over the last couple of seasons.Let's see what the OC recently had to say about Moats:

Marty Mornhinweg said second-year running back Ryan Moats looks "much more comfortable" in the Eagles' offense

A LINK to an article with Reid stating they plan on running the ball more.

"Last year, I will be honest with you, the numbers got a little skewed toward the pass," Reid said. "And we need to get back to what we have done here before and that is balance it up a bit more and give the running game an opportunity to work in there with the pass game."

And lastly his ADP according to FBG data:#147

Moats = Value

 

[CalBear]

Sorry, the mere mention of Marty Mornhiweg in association with any player merits a downgrade.

 

[SDJohnny]

Anyone who gets Westbrook has to get Moats as well. At some point Westbrook will breakdown.

 

[LHUCKS]

Anyone who gets Westbrook has to get Moats as well. At some point Westbrook will breakdown.

, although your post implies Moats will not get touches until Westbrook gets injured. I'm not sure that will be the case if Moats continues to impress and if Reid runs the ball more as promised...both of which I find likely.

 

[SDJohnny]

Anyone who gets Westbrook has to get Moats as well. At some point Westbrook will breakdown.

, although your post implies Moats will not get touches until Westbrook gets injured. I'm not sure that will be the case if Moats continues to impress and if Reid runs the ball more as promised.

Since I am in a PPR league Westbrook and Moats are of particular interest. What are you predicting if both are healthy, 50-50 split 60/40?Moats wasn't a factor in the passing game last year, but McNabb was out before Moats saw most of his playin time. Do you think that will change?

 

[m_sell31]

Anyone who gets Westbrook has to get Moats as well. At some point Westbrook will breakdown.

, although your post implies Moats will not get touches until Westbrook gets injured. I'm not sure that will be the case if Moats continues to impress and if Reid runs the ball more as promised.

Since I am in a PPR league Westbrook and Moats are of particular interest. What are you predicting if both are healthy, 50-50 split 60/40?Moats wasn't a factor in the passing game last year, but McNabb was out before Moats saw most of his playin time. Do you think that will change?

I was just comming here to start a thread on moats. I too see him as good value. He is a FA right now in my ppr keeper league that keeps 15 players. Am i making this up or did i read somewhere awile back that they might both be on the field at the same time?

I have good RB's for my top 3 spots but i see him as being a great valuer for my RB 4 or 5 spot.

 

[LHUCKS]

Since I am in a PPR league Westbrook and Moats are of particular interest. What are you predicting if both are healthy, 50-50 split 60/40?

I wouldn't be surprised to see it like this in terms of RB touches:Westbrook: 55

Moats: 30

Other: 15

Moats wasn't a factor in the passing game last year, but McNabb was out before Moats saw most of his playin time. Do you think that will change?

I think Moats will definitely become more of a factor this year because of the previously mentioned reasons. If Reid does increase Westbrook's role there is a good chance Moats will be replacing Westbrook earlier than expected because Westbrook hasn't been able to stay healthy with lesser carries. It's not logical to assume he will miss less games with more touches.

 

[On The Rocks]

Moats' first year stats:

                +--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2005 phi |   7 |    55    278    5.1    3 |     4      7   1.8    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   |   7 |    55    278    5.1    3 |     4      7   1.8    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+Note the 5.1 Y/AHere's his gamelog:

+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  7  sdg  |    0     0  |     0  |  0 || 12  gnb  |    6    24  |     0  |  0 || 13  sea  |   10    26  |     3  |  0 || 14  nyg  |   11   114  |     0  |  2 || 15  ram  |   12    78  |     0  |  1 || 16  ari  |    9    13  |     0  |  0 || 17  was  |    7    23  |     4  |  0 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  TOTAL   |   55   278  |     7  |  3 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+A couple of big games in his rookie season...sometimes an indicator of a "breakout" player.Now let's look at Brittlebrook's last two seasons:

               +--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2004 phi |  13 |   177    812    4.6    3 |    73    703   9.6    6 || 2005 phi |  12 |   156    617    4.0    3 |    61    616  10.1    4 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+Looks like he's averaging only about 12.5 games played over the last couple of seasons.Let's see what the OC recently had to say about Moats:

Marty Mornhinweg said second-year running back Ryan Moats looks "much more comfortable" in the Eagles' offense

And lastly a LINK to an article with Reid stating they plan on running the ball more.

"Last year, I will be honest with you, the numbers got a little skewed toward the pass," Reid said. "And we need to get back to what we have done here before and that is balance it up a bit more and give the running game an opportunity to work in there with the pass game."

And lastly his ADP according to FBG data:#147

Moats = Value

i think the ADP is going to change significantly as the summer rolls along.and i don't believe he will be available as quite so deep a pick as he is today.

 

[LHUCKS]

i think the ADP is going to change significantly as the summer rolls along.

and i don't believe he will be available as quite so deep a pick as he is today.

Agreed, which is why I'm posting this now. Moats will get camp buzz for certain. He can be an electrifying player.

 

[trader jake]

:honda:

edit to add: link

 

[jerseyh8r]

I agree to target Moats to handcuff Westy, but I just don't see how he gets 30% of RB touches if Westbrook is healthy. Reid needs to make the playoffs this year in a very competitive NFC East without a dominant WR option. I don't expect him to move away from using a guy who avgs 4.5 per carry and 9 yds per reception for his career....yep, Westbrook is that good.

I like Moats, but I also think he is being artificially pumped up on the board by people looking for the diamond in the rough. He may actually go too high in a few drafts as guys who need to protect against a Westbrook injury assure themselves of his certain backup a bit earlier than where he would have true value. I also would expect him to be one of the "sleeper" candidates in some of the major publications, thus also artificially inflating his real value. Could be wrong, though.

 

[Capt Hook]

Anyone who gets Westbrook has to get Moats as well. At some point Westbrook will breakdown.

, although your post implies Moats will not get touches until Westbrook gets injured. I'm not sure that will be the case if Moats continues to impress and if Reid runs the ball more as promised.

Since I am in a PPR league Westbrook and Moats are of particular interest. What are you predicting if both are healthy, 50-50 split 60/40?Moats wasn't a factor in the passing game last year, but McNabb was out before Moats saw most of his playin time. Do you think that will change?

I was just comming here to start a thread on moats. I too see him as good value. He is a FA right now in my ppr keeper league that keeps 15 players. Am i making this up or did i read somewhere awile back that they might both be on the field at the same time?I have good RB's for my top 3 spots but i see him as being a great valuer for my RB 4 or 5 spot.

No, you did not make this up. There have been quotes from the Eagles staff about using them both at the same time - whether Westy goes in motion or is split out as a WR which they worked on in mini camp. Just another reason why I agree with LHUCKS about Moats and have already drafted him - both with and without Westbrook - in several drafts this year.

 

[joffer]

Moats' first year stats:

                +--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2005 phi |   7 |    55    278    5.1    3 |     4      7   1.8    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   |   7 |    55    278    5.1    3 |     4      7   1.8    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+Note the 5.1 Y/AHere's his gamelog:

+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  7  sdg  |    0     0  |     0  |  0 || 12  gnb  |    6    24  |     0  |  0 || 13  sea  |   10    26  |     3  |  0 || 14  nyg  |   11   114  |     0  |  2 || 15  ram  |   12    78  |     0  |  1 || 16  ari  |    9    13  |     0  |  0 || 17  was  |    7    23  |     4  |  0 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  TOTAL   |   55   278  |     7  |  3 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+

A couple of big games in his rookie season...sometimes an indicator of a "breakout" player.

i'd say a couple of big "runs", rather than "games", but i agree he could be a nice late round value.

 

[LHUCKS]

I agree to target Moats to handcuff Westy, but I just don't see how he gets 30% of RB touches if Westbrook is healthy.

Do you think Westbrook can play more games(than the past two years) with more touches?

 

[suchislife]

Moats is absolutely a necessary handcuff to Westbrook. However the Westbrook's games played over the last 2 years is deceiving. 2004 he (and most starters) sat out the last 3 games to rest up, hence the 13 games played.

Also, what Reid says and what Reid does are 2 totally different things. Its easy for him to say they have to run more. But when the real bullets are flying, AR will rely on what he knows - and that's passing the ball. Sure, they can run more, but that's a relative term. This is a team that really doesn't have a fullback on the roster and every one who pays attention knows the Eagles needed to add a big back, but they didn't.

Not saying Moats may not represent value, just don't be so quick to buy into Reid's coach-speak.

 

[LHUCKS]

i'd say a couple of big "runs", rather than "games", but i agree he could be a nice late round value.

I never really agreed with discounting a players performance due to big runs.

 

[LHUCKS]

Not saying Moats may not represent value, just don't be so quick to buy into Reid's coach-speak.

Reid is usually a straight shooter, no?

 

[On The Rocks]

I agree to target Moats to handcuff Westy, but I just don't see how he gets 30% of RB touches if Westbrook is healthy.

i do.i can see them both being on the field a lot this year with Westbrook split out.

the Eagles are weak at WR and they will need to have Westbrook lined up as a WR just to keep defenses honest.

 

[joffer]

i'd say a couple of big "runs", rather than "games", but i agree he could be a nice late round value.

I never really agreed with discounting a players performance due to big runs.

me neither, i'm just saying that the two games that were good looked that way because of two big TD runs.edit: actually week 14 he had multiple solid runs, that was a very good game

 

[suchislife]

Not saying Moats may not represent value, just don't be so quick to buy into Reid's coach-speak.

Reid is usually a straight shooter, no?

Reid doesn't give much to the media, period. When he says they need to run more, he's responding to reporters critisim. I imagine it went something like this:Reporter: Andy, the team has become very predictable in its playing calling. You ran the least number of running plays in the league.

AR: Yeah, that's my fault. I've gotta call more running plays there.

Media: REID SAYS EAGLES TO RUN MORE

 

[Snotbubbles]

LHUCKS,

You are aware that in 2004 while the official GP shows Westbrook as only playing 13 games, he missed two of those games (week 16 and 17) because of coaches decision and not injury. The Eagles had home-field wrapped up already, so Reid pretty much sat most of his key players. I would like to see that happen again in 2006 but it is probably unlikely.

So really when you look at it Westbrooks games missed due to injury were:

2003: 1

2004: 1

2005: 4

 

[LHUCKS]

LHUCKS,

You are aware that in 2004 while the official GP shows Westbrook as only playing 13 games, he missed two of those games (week 16 and 17) because of coaches decision and not injury. The Eagles had home-field wrapped up already, so Reid pretty much sat most of his key players. I would like to see that happen again in 2006 but it is probably unlikely.

So really when you look at it Westbrooks games missed due to injury were:

2003: 1

2004: 1

2005: 4

I just researched his '04 games played and your assertions are correct.

I think it's the general consensus around the NFL that Westbrook isn't a 25 touch per game player...I believe they stated such on NFL Live last night or the night before. Not that NFL Live is the authority, but it seems to be the consensus around the league.

 

[On The Rocks]

Westbrook isn't a 25 touch per game player.

he also isn't a redzone runner. (in this case, RedZone = inside the 5). he is terrible running the ball inside the 5. in fact i think they cut back his carries last year at the goal line because he had so little success in years past.

i will be curious to see how Moats handles those situations.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I think it's the general consensus around the NFL that Westbrook isn't a 25 touch per game player...I believe they stated such on NFL Live last night or the night before. Not that NFL Live is the authority, but it seems to be the consensus around the league.

Agree with this. Westbrook is best utilized by touching the ball about 18 times per game. Maybe 11 or 12 rushes and 5 or 6 receptions.

 

[LHUCKS]

I think it's the general consensus around the NFL that Westbrook isn't a 25 touch per game player...I believe they stated such on NFL Live last night or the night before. Not that NFL Live is the authority, but it seems to be the consensus around the league.

Agree with this. Westbrook is best utilized by touching the ball about 18 times per game. Maybe 11 or 12 rushes and 5 or 6 receptions.

especially considering the Eagles are often in contention for the playoffs...they need to keep Westy healthy. Another reason why a big chunk of touches may go to Moats this year.

 

[Otis]

Excellent value, particularly in dynasty leagues.

 

[rascal]

In 2005 he had 177 rushes and 73 receptions for a total of 250 touches over 13 games, for an average of 19 touches per game.

In 2006 before he was injured he had 156 rushes and 61 touches for a total of 217, for an average of 18 touches per game.

Westy won't go over 20 touches per game IMO, but to expect 17-19 is reasonable.

IMO 2005 was such a horrible year with TO, McNabb, and everything else that to use it for projections is misleading. IMO you need to look at 2002-2004 to get an idea what the Eagles RB's will produce:

2002: 1624 Rushing, 6 Rushing TD's, 877 Receiving, 4 Receiving TD's

2003: 1605 Rushing, 20 Rushing TD's, 1033 Receiving, 10 Receiving TD's

2004: 1405 Rushing, 7 Rushing TD's, 1059 Receiving, 6 receiving TD's

I think 2002 is the key year to look at it (no TO), but you have to also consider that McNabb has improved since then. If Moats gets 30% of the touches, which I think is reasonable, that still leaves Westy with 1750 total yards and 7 TD's (ranked #9 last year with those stats). That might be high for Westbrook IMO, but I don't think he falls below top 15 RB barring significant time lost (even last year he ended up ranking 18th missing 4 games).

If Moats gets 30% of those numbers BTW he ends up with 750 yards and 3 TD's...which should give him a rank of 37 last year.

Basically, yes Moats is underrated but so is Westbrook.

 

[LHUCKS]

FYI, there's about four articles on the FBG blogger speaking to an increased role for Moats. LINK

So if nobody wants to play devil's adocate here, why is Moats' ADP so low and why is hig FBG consensus ranking in the 50's?

 

[Snotbubbles]

especially considering the Eagles are often in contention for the playoffs...they need to keep Westy healthy. Another reason why a big chunk of touches may go to Moats this year.

Well Eagles RBs only average about 25 touches/per game (the most was 2002 at 29) under Andy Reid so there really isn't alot of touches to go around it you think Westbrook will get 18 that doesn't leave much for the rest of the backs.I think Moats will finish somewhere in the 35-45 RB range this year.

There was actually another thread on Moats just recently:

Another Moats Thread

 

[joffer]

I think it's the general consensus around the NFL that Westbrook isn't a 25 touch per game player...I believe they stated such on NFL Live last night or the night before. Not that NFL Live is the authority, but it seems to be the consensus around the league.

Agree with this. Westbrook is best utilized by touching the ball about 18 times per game. Maybe 11 or 12 rushes and 5 or 6 receptions.

especially considering the Eagles are often in contention for the playoffs...they need to keep Westy healthy. Another reason why a big chunk of touches may go to Moats this year.

but they have to make the playoffs first, in the toughest division in football. This isn't 2002 when they coast to 12-4. Westbrook is going to get the ball a lot in weeks 14-17, probably more than he should.

 

[LHUCKS]

I think Moats will finish somewhere in the 35-45 RB range this year.

[showtopic=247596&hl=Moats]Another Moats Thread

I currently have him at #36...mostly because I believe what Reid and the OC are saying and also because I was impressed with what I saw from Moats last year...kid is very quick and elusive.

 

[LHUCKS]

I think it's the general consensus around the NFL that Westbrook isn't a 25 touch per game player...I believe they stated such on NFL Live last night or the night before. Not that NFL Live is the authority, but it seems to be the consensus around the league.

Agree with this. Westbrook is best utilized by touching the ball about 18 times per game. Maybe 11 or 12 rushes and 5 or 6 receptions.

especially considering the Eagles are often in contention for the playoffs...they need to keep Westy healthy. Another reason why a big chunk of touches may go to Moats this year.

but they have to make the playoffs first, in the toughest division in football. This isn't 2002 when they coast to 12-4. Westbrook is going to get the ball a lot in weeks 14-17, probably more than he should.

Well, in games where they are up big I think Westbrook could get pulled sooner than later.

 

[jerseyh8r]

Excellent value, particularly in dynasty leagues.

Agreed, I think he is value now, I just wonder what is ADP is going to be at the end of August, when my drafts take place.That being said, I got an opportunity to look into the carries that Westbrook saw in the time that he was healthy....Westy received about 60% of the carries. Gordon saw 18% and Moats only saw about 3%. Based on the collection of posts here, I am moving my touches up on Moats from 15 to 20%.

FWIW:

BWest: 241-1,013-4 and 61-486-5

Moats: 80-370-3 and 26-210-1

 

[rascal]

I think Moats will finish somewhere in the 35-45 RB range this year.

[showtopic=247596&hl=Moats]Another Moats Thread

I currently have him at #36...mostly because I believe what Reid and the OC are saying and also because I was impressed with what I saw from Moats last year...kid is very quick and elusive.

I have him ranked #42 (about 110 overall) simply because you can't take everything Reid says verbatum as I've been screwed before.But then I also have Westbrook ranked #13 instead of his ADP of #16.

 

[joffer]

slight hijack, but look at the Eagles' last 6 games:

^IND, CAR, ^WAS, ^NYG, ^DAL, ATL

 

[rascal]

slight hijack, but look at the Eagles' last 6 games:

^IND, CAR, ^WAS, ^NYG, ^DAL, ATL

Yeap...IMO they will pass more which will not affect Westbrook except for week 16 against Dallas (and 17 against Atlanta if your league goes that far).

 

[Pimpin Ain't Easy]

Moats' first year stats:

                +--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2005 phi |   7 |    55    278    5.1    3 |     4      7   1.8    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   |   7 |    55    278    5.1    3 |     4      7   1.8    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+Note the 5.1 Y/AHere's his gamelog:

+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  7  sdg  |    0     0  |     0  |  0 || 12  gnb  |    6    24  |     0  |  0 || 13  sea  |   10    26  |     3  |  0 || 14  nyg  |   11   114  |     0  |  2 || 15  ram  |   12    78  |     0  |  1 || 16  ari  |    9    13  |     0  |  0 || 17  was  |    7    23  |     4  |  0 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  TOTAL   |   55   278  |     7  |  3 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+A couple of big games in his rookie season...sometimes an indicator of a "breakout" player.Now let's look at Brittlebrook's last two seasons:

               +--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2004 phi |  13 |   177    812    4.6    3 |    73    703   9.6    6 || 2005 phi |  12 |   156    617    4.0    3 |    61    616  10.1    4 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+Looks like he's averaging only about 12.5 games played over the last couple of seasons.Let's see what the OC recently had to say about Moats:

Marty Mornhinweg said second-year running back Ryan Moats looks "much more comfortable" in the Eagles' offense

A LINK to an article with Reid stating they plan on running the ball more.

"Last year, I will be honest with you, the numbers got a little skewed toward the pass," Reid said. "And we need to get back to what we have done here before and that is balance it up a bit more and give the running game an opportunity to work in there with the pass game."

And lastly his ADP according to FBG data:#147

Moats = Value

I'm not saying that I disagree with the fact that Moats is a value play, but Troy Hambrick avgd 5.1 a carry one year too.I think sometimes the ypc can really be deceiving, like when it's 3rd and long and they break long runs on the draw. Kinda skews it some IMO.

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm not saying that I disagree with the fact that Moats is a value play, but Troy Hambrick avgd 5.1 a carry one year too.

I think sometimes the ypc can really be deceiving, like when it's 3rd and long and they break long runs on the draw. Kinda skews it some IMO.

Agreed, which is why I'm using YPC as one of several factors, not the only factor.

 

[CalBear]

Westbrook isn't a 25 touch per game player.

he also isn't a redzone runner. (in this case, RedZone = inside the 5). he is terrible running the ball inside the 5. in fact i think they cut back his carries last year at the goal line because he had so little success in years past.

i will be curious to see how Moats handles those situations.

Since 2002, Wesbrook has a total of 9 carries from inside the 5. He scored 4 TDs on those 9 carries, which is above the league average for success. He also has 6 receiving targets, with 5 receptions and 4 TDs.So it's true that Philly doesn't use him much inside the 5, but it's not because he hasn't been effective there.