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Ouch. This is the point I was making. Whether or not it made sense to bench Brees and/or Colston has to do with your other options. Looks like it was the wrong call for [scooter], and based on flawed/faulty logic, yet everyone is praising him. Whatever. (And I don't have either Brees or Colston, so I'm not bitter or happy over the result.)
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
It really doesn't matter who I started over Brees. It could have been Alex Smith or J.P. Losman or Kyle Boller and the principle would have been the same: I suspected that Brees was due for a bad game, and I was right.Besides, in TD leagues McNair/Cotchery outscored Brees/Colston.
I went against Brees and this week. His 6 points was by far his lowest score all year. phew. dodged a bullet this week.' date='Dec 17 2006, 04:06 PM' post='6075566']
Well well well. It may not have unfolded exactly as I predicted, but I'll take the credit nonetheless.
This was unequivocally Drew Brees' worst game of the year.
Like I said: Brees couldn't keep up the pace, and he was due. Colston did have a decent game, although his 8 points was 33% less than his average.
Don't have those players..but remind me next year to listen to you more! Happy Holidays All
Thanks for a thought provoking and researched post. No "Flame Away" here. appreciated,
Weak post
He was saying about not starting Brees he was not saying that McNair was a great start.As was previously stated Boller did good in place of McNair so maybe McNair could have approached the same type of stats that the stud Boller put up.K. Boller 13/21 238 2 1 How about listing the total number of QB's that outscored Brees this week? Nice job with having an idea and posting it with some reasons for you thoughts. I much prefer this kind of a post to one started now that claims the poster knew that Brees was a weak start this week.
Marc - your avatar seems fishy.Great call - good reasoning.Hey - it worked so you must be a genious!Agreed - nice insight and novel thought, [scooter]It's worth more reasearch before you can call it a "theory"Right now, I'd cal it a "phenomenon that strikes some QBs."edit to add - itf it hits both Manning abd Palmer tomorrow night - or even one of them - I'll give you the
I call heads.....just like the last 4-5+ flips when I was CONVINCED that I would be due for one after a prior run of tails.
This time of year is wrought with people over-analyzing and making gigantic mountains out of mole hills...because none of us want to waste an entire season of good, competitive football only to watch our FFL teams go up in smoke because our studs mis-fired with some serious $$$ on the line. I think the moral to this story though is who the alternative to Brees was. Yes, McNair's injury was a freak kind of thing. However, FFL is FULL of "freak" kind of things....also see anyone who was stuck starting something named "Mike Karney" in Week 14 after your entire roster of RBs was on IR or inactive, everybody else on the waiver wire in a DEEP league was completely gone and it was either that or starting a guy on IR, LOL.With FFL, you look at:- health of player- health of player's key supporting cast (who gets him the ball and/or if defenses will be able to artificially key on him due to deficiencies at other positions)- state/health of the team's O-Line- quality and health of opponent- what both teams (his and the opposing team) have left to play for- weatherYou ALWAYS, ALWAYS start your studs this time of year....only using the above as "tie-breakers" or if the above list gives you overwhelming "evidence" that your back-up will outperform your stud, giving you that "gut feeling", you roll with your gut. To bench Brees because "he's due for a bad game" is the kind of stuff that has you kicking yourself until August/September more often than not. Even in this case, where Brees had an off-game, dude STILL would have gotten more FPs by starting him.I don't know....I see a LOT of guys falling on their swords this time of year, EVERY YEAR, in over-thinking their line-ups, waiver wire, etc. to DEATH! If you got to the playoffs and your guys are healthy, I say dance with the girls you brought to the dance unless their is an overwhelming amount of "evidence" to the contrary. 
yes and yes
I'd assume its a two-tailed coin and would go with tails.
Agreed. The announcers made an interesting point: Sean Taylor is one of the few DBs in the league big enough to not get bumped off or outjumped by Colston. So he was covered better than he is in most games. He'll be fine.tonystrong said:
Exactly who were you supposed to start over Drew Brees?Garrard, V. Young? Hasslebeck? Mcnair? Trent Green? J. Kitna? J. Harrington? D. Carr? M. Leinart? E. Manning? A. Walter or A. Brooks ? B. Johnson? C. Weinke?' date='Dec 17 2006, 04:35 PM' post='6075733']
Hey, I admit that my logic wasn't necessarily sound, and I totally agree with your mathmatical calculations. But I didn't just pull this hunch out of mid-air -- it was based on past experiences with stud QBs that flopped in the playoffs.Even the best QBs have bad games. But Brees hadn't had one all year. What goes up MUST come down.Dude, congrats on the call. But I really wish you would've defended your argument more. You obviously took a lot of time to write all of that and I saw your name in the thread numerous times that I looked throughout the day. You were critisized a lot for your logic, yet you had no rebuttals?' date='Dec 17 2006, 04:06 PM' post='6075566']
Well well well. It may not have unfolded exactly as I predicted, but I'll take the credit nonetheless.
This was unequivocally Drew Brees' worst game of the year.
Like I said: Brees couldn't keep up the pace, and he was due. Colston did have a decent game, although his 8 points was 33% less than his average.
I'm sorry that more of you didn't listen to me. And hopefully the ones who did had better options than Steve McNair.
Whatever you usually call.......for me it's tails, cuz it never fails.But to think it would be heads because tails came up is an error human gamblers make all the time. I can't tell you how many people who play Roulette at the casino see black or red come in say 6 or 7 times and then bet the other one heavily because they "feel" it's due to go the other way. Sure, eventually it will happen, but as far as the next flip is concerned, it's always 50/50, it's not 51/49 etc..... just because of any previous flips.
I'm guessing that Joe was not stating that it was a 50/50 chance that Brees would have a good/bad game... but rather that games are independent events and that you can't simply state that Brees was "due" for a bad game because he had a streak of good ones prior to yesterday... Obvisouly, a head will eventually come up on the coin flip... but having had 9 tails in a row or 453 for that matter won't influence the next flip...If not... why not starting Chambers? He had 9 bad games... he was certainly due for a good one yesterday... ooops...GreatScott said:
Below are the stats of each quarterback in the other two playoff weeks in each season. They average out to be 289 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT per game. There is clearly no "trend" of top quarterbacks fizzling out in the last three games. What you see below is normal inconsistency that happens to ALL players.The main flaw is the fact that he is hand-picking a few quarterbacks per season and not showing stats for, say, the top 5 QB's every season, means that he went through each season of each top quarterback and only picked single situations, mostly about 1 game per QB (and only used 2-3 QB's per year) while completely ignoring the rest of the performances of the other top QBs. Generally, it's not a good idea to handpick data that supports your claim, and then use it to justify your claim. For every playoff week that a each QB mentioned bombed, there are, in most of the cases below, 2 other weeks in which he had a very good to great game...not to MENTION, what I already said above, that this does not include the other top tier quarterbacks that he doesn't mention, presumably because they did not have a playoff week in which they crapped the bed. So, in order for this advice to be of any use to you, you basically have to guess:a) If your top tier QB is going to be the one that has a crappy weekb) If it's going to be this week, or the next week, or maybe the final weekAdditionally, you have to have a suitable back up worth starting; there is no more relevant an example of how this advice fails than the OP's original situation, in which he started Steve McNair and, despite luckily guessing which week would be the letdown, STILL ended up with a lower scoring QB.
2000:Culpepper (the #1 fantasy QB) has worst game of season in Week 14; Moss (the #1 WR) has 3 catches for 26 yards.Week 15: 21/33 for 221 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTsWeek 16: 23/38 for 335 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INTManning (#3) has his ONLY 0-TD game of the season and his lowest yardage output (132) in Week 15; Harrison (#2 WR) has 27 yards.Week 14: 26/51 for 339 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTsWeek 16: 21/28, 201 yards 1 TD, 0 INTGannon (#4) has 3 INTs and only 136 yards in Week 16.Week 14: 21/40, for 273 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTWeek 15: 11/23, for 161 yards, 2 TD, 1 INTGrbac (#6) has worst game of year (0 TDs, 160 yards) in Week 16.Week 14: 25/46 for 350 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INTWeek 15: 31/44, for 315 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT2001:Favre (#4) has his ONLY 0-TD game of the season and his 2nd-lowest yardage output (169) in Week 16.Week 14: 20/38 for 199 yards, 2 TD, 1 INTWeek 15: 18/28 for 138 yards, 3 TD, 0 INTManning (#3) has 2nd-worst game of year (0 TDs, 1 INT) in Week 16.Week 14: 23/35 for 325 yards, 3 TD, 1 INTWeek 15: 25/35 for 228, 1 TD, 0 INTBrooks (#6) has worst game of career (up to that point) in Week 16.Week 14: 23/40 for 269 yards, 3 TD, 2 INTWeek 15: 21/38 for 248 3 TD, 4 INT2002:Vick (#3) - on heels of his record-setting 173-yard game, he manages just 9 rushing yards and 125 passing yards in Week 14.Week 15: 21/38, for 250 yards, 2 TD, 2 INTWeek 16: 20/38, for 337 yards, 2 TD, 1 INTBledsoe (#5) has 2 worst games of year in Weeks 15-16 (0 TDs and 2 INTs).Week 14: 32/51 for 328 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT2003:Manning (#2) has 2 worst games of year in Weeks 14 & 16 (0 TDs in either game).Week 15: 25/30 for 290 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTGreen (#3) has worst game of year (0 TDs, 2 INTs) in Week 16.Week 14: 34/47 for 397 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTWeek 15: 20/25 for 341 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT Hasselbeck (#4) has worst game of year (0 TDs/2 INTs) in Week 14.Week 15: 21/37 for 246 yards, 1 TD, 1 INTWeek 16: 17/24 for 179, 1 TD, 1 INT2004lummer (#5) has worst game of season (0 TDs/2 INTs) in Week 14.Week 15: 23/41 for 292 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTWeek 16: 21/26 for 303 yards, 2 TD, 1 INTVolek follows his 492, 5-TD game in Week 15 with a 111 yard/2-INT stinker in Week 16.Week 14: 29/43 for 426 yards, 4 TD, 0 INTWeek 15: 40/60 for 492 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT*Volek was not a top 5 QB for the season.2005
Ok...here is who he stated for stats and proof in his theory.
The important thing about this, is that every year, he looked at the top 6 QB's, and at most each year except for '00, he could only find 3 that flopped in the playoffs. I'm assuming if they're not on there, they're didn't flop in the playoffs, or he would have put them in there. So '01, the 1, 2 & 5 qb's did not flop. In '02, 1, 2, 4, & 6 did not flop. In '03..1, 5, & 6...In '04 1-4 & 6...in '05, 2, 4, & 6. All of these guys did not flop in the playoffs or again, they would be in there as examples to back up his theory. So of the 36 QB's he looked at (top 6 in last 6 years) 17 had a flop game, 19 did not.I propose you could pick any 3 week span, look at the top 6 QB's, and you would find 3-5 flop games in there. For sake of this argument, I'll look at the top 6 in one of my leagues in Weeks 12-14 of this season. Picked those weeks because it makes no byes, and those are weeks the big QB's would have gotten teams into the playoffs.1) Brees - Week 13: 186/1/0. Not a complete bust, but well below average. 2) Vick - Week 14 threw for 155/0/1. Rushed for 5.3) Manning - Week 12 183/1/1. Again no complete bust, but not what Manning owners expect.4) Palmer - Week 13: 234/1/0. Not a complete bust, but well below average.5) Bulger - Week 12: 201/1/1. 6) McNabb - DNP...so we'll even check out #77) Brady - Week 14: 78/0/0.So just picking the top 6 qb's in any random weeks, you can find at least 2 complete busts, and 4 games well below their averages. I call it my "stud QB's will randomly bust or massively underperform 1 out of every 3 weeks" theory.ETA: Nice fastpost, jetswillwin. More good info there.Let me illustrate some of the examples over the past 6 years. For this exercise, I only looked at the top-6 fantasy QBs for each season:2000:Culpepper (the #1 fantasy QB) has worst game of season in Week 14; Moss (the #1 WR) has 3 catches for 26 yards.Manning (#3) has his ONLY 0-TD game of the season and his lowest yardage output (132) in Week 15; Harrison (#2 WR) has 27 yards.Gannon (#4) has 3 INTs and only 136 yards in Week 16.Grbac (#6) has worst game of year (0 TDs, 160 yards) in Week 16.2001:Favre (#4) has his ONLY 0-TD game of the season and his 2nd-lowest yardage output (169) in Week 16.Manning (#3) has 2nd-worst game of year (0 TDs, 1 INT) in Week 16.Brooks (#6) has worst game of career (up to that point) in Week 16.2002:Vick (#3) - on heels of his record-setting 173-yard game, he manages just 9 rushing yards and 125 passing yards in Week 14.Bledsoe (#5) has 2 worst games of year in Weeks 15-16 (0 TDs and 2 INTs).2003:Manning (#2) has 2 worst games of year in Weeks 14 & 16 (0 TDs in either game).Green (#3) has worst game of year (0 TDs, 2 INTs) in Week 16.Hasselbeck (#4) has worst game of year (0 TDs/2 INTs) in Week 14.2004
Excellent post.The thing is, regarding this:
You forgot:
So in this case, it wasn't as much of a guess as usual.
It could come up tails 99 times out of 100 flip.... and you know what the odds are that a tails could up the 100th time? 50%the odds of getting 10 straight tails is .000095%The probability of Brees having an awful game on any given sunday is low enough to begin with, much less vs the Skins secondary, much less in the midst of a playoff hunt, much less at HOME...Makes this call ballsy, but money in hindsight.
After all logic is analyzed, you can still think.... "does he have it coming to him?"I benched Favre last week vs a good matchup.... DET at home... just looked at his game-by-game log... and figured he was due for a big meltdown. Course Leinhart didn't fair better but 0/1 vs 0/3.The recipe for fantasy is gut instinct, randomness, feel, vision, and premonition... wrapped by a wafer thin layer of analytical knowledge sitting in a giant bowl of luck soup.
I couldn't disagree with you more. It has everything to do with who you have to plug in. If I'm going to bench the #1 QB then I had damn well better have another top 10 guy with a great matchup to have me consider staring him.' date='Dec 17 2006, 06:13 PM' post='6076106']
It really doesn't matter who I started over Brees. It could have been Alex Smith or J.P. Losman or Kyle Boller and the principle would have been the same: I suspected that Brees was due for a bad game, and I was right.Besides, in TD leagues McNair/Cotchery outscored Brees/Colston.
