Why in the world would anyone draft CJ or AJ ahead of Wayne? (1 Viewer)

[Frank Black]

Several years ago, I wrote a thread called why in the world would anyone draft Moss ahead of TO or Harrison? Moss was a super stud at that time, but I didn't understand why he was so heavily touted on this board over TO and Harrison before that season. Harrison ended up prevailing that season.

This season, I have a similar feeling about Wayne taking a back seat on these boards to the Johnson brothers, Andre and Calvin. AJ and CJ are the sexy picks around here, with seeminly great potential. All 3 WRs will cost an early pick in redraft leagues. Here is what bothers me about AJ and CJ, without going into detailed ##s during my limited time this morning.

Andre Johnson has not put together stud back to back seasons for a variety of reasons. It seems like around here, for certain players, we accept excuses when we want to tout certain players and yet use some of those same reasons to bash other players who are also talented. The no back to back stud season factor is relevant to me, as well as question marks about whether his QB can stay healthy. With the departure of Rosenfels, AJ looks too risky compared to Wayne.

Calvin Johnson is a stud, but the QB situation scares me. Can a WR be such a superstud that a washed up QB or a rookie QB thowing to him on a beaten down team such as DET can still enable the WR to statistically blow away the likes of Wayne?

I realize that there are question marks in Indy as well, but historically, the question marks in previous years have worked out pretty well with Indy's #1 WR, minus the years when Harrison was unhealthy. Wayne's history has not suggested siginificant health problems.

BOTTOM LINE: When spending such a draft pick on one of these 3 WRs, my question would be whether you really believe that AJ or CJ would outshine Wayne so much that the risk is worth it? Despite a subpar year, Wayne has shown enough that his floor should be acceptable for a highly picked #1 WR, whereas AJ and CJ seem like a crapshoot to me. Total season numbers, not PPG numbers matter more for your #1 WR.

 

[ScottNorwood]

I like to draft the most talented player available and that puts CJ and AJ above Wayne.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Frank

I agree more with your point about CJ, he scares me(his QB's), badly. Even though with relatively the same garbage at QB last season he put up phenominal numbers. Something tells me a regress in numbers are coming for him

But I wouldnt even hesitate to grab AJ over Reggie Wayne.

 

[Buffaloes]

Calvin Johnson is a stud, but the QB situation scares me. Can a WR be such a superstud that a washed up QB or a rookie QB thowing to him on a beaten down team such as DET can still enable the WR to statistically blow away the likes of Wayne?

Why not? He outproduced/outscored Wayne by a good bit in just his second year in the league last year when he had the likes of Kitna, Orlovsky and Culpepper throwing the ball to him. The offense around him got better and I have little doubt that the QB situation will be improved over last year's so I see very little reason (barring injury of course) not to draft CJ above Wayne.And I agree w/ the above poster who said that AJ and CJ are more talented that Wayne.

 

[nordstrom24]

As I read in the overvalued WR article (and experienced first hand last year) - after week six - Reggie had a whopping two TDs.

Not exactly sure that Gonzo will take a lot of the pressure off Wayne either looking into this season as based on watching the Colts games he appears to be more of a slot receiver as opposed to the clear #2.

As the #1 WR on the team Reggie's stats have clearly suffered as it looks that Peyton goes to Dallas Clark or Gonzo quite a bit more.

CJ and AJ have posted great numbers as #1 WR without having solid quarterbacks or clear cut #2 or slot receivers to take the pressue off. I have a feeling that the Lions will also be playing a lot of catchup this year and throwing again late in games which helps out CJ's stats quite a bit.

 

[Grahamburn]

Ceilings and potential for a huge year.

I don't think Calvin's situation could possibly get worse than it was last year and he still managed 1,331 yards and 12 TDs.

Think about that.

The Lions were 0-16. An AWFUL team. Worst ever, arguably.

This guy was in his second NFL season and EVERYONE knew who the ball was going to and he still put up those numbers.

One has to think he'll only get better in his third year. The potential is scary.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

I think instead of worrying a great deal about these top notch guys who barring injury are all going to be valuable you should really not sweat to much about which ever one of these guys you can get (if you can get them). I mean you can argue until you are blue in the face for anyone of these guys and really every person can make a REALLY good argument for each player.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Maybe I'm just missing something here, but it seems like you're dismissing AJ/CJ for reasons that they've showed they can already be studs in.

Schaub might not stay healthy? Uh, you mean like last year where Schaub didn't stay healthy and AJ had 1600/8?

Calvin will have bad quarterbacks throwing him the ball? Uh, you mean like last year where he had bad quarterbacks throwing him the ball and he went for 1330/12?

Really, I would take the flipside to your question. Why in the world would anyone draft Reggie Wayne over CJ/AJ when those guys outperformed him with backup QBs while he was playing with Peyton Manning? Wayne's success is tied to many other factors. If Peyton gets hurt or struggles, Wayne likely will fall off miserably. If the Colts offense struggles, so will Wayne. If Schaub or Culpepper get hurt or struggle, AJ and CJ keep right on ticking.

And that's completely discounting that each of AJ/CJ have a ceiling that Wayne can only dream of.

 

[unckeyherb]

Ceilings and potential for a huge year.I don't think Calvin's situation could possibly get worse than it was last year and he still managed 1,331 yards and 12 TDs.Think about that. The Lions were 0-16. An AWFUL team. Worst ever, arguably. This guy was in his second NFL season and EVERYONE knew who the ball was going to and he still put up those numbers.One has to think he'll only get better in his third year. The potential is scary.

exactly. Same can sort of be said for Andre. His QB's were flip flopping starters all year and he still put up 115-1575-8 and was #1 in my league. If schaub remains healthy I could see Andre pull a Marvin Harrison circa 2002. 120+ receptions, 1700 yards 12 TDs. All-World Stud that Wayne cannot compete with. Wayne is great, and is certainly a WR1, but compared to these two guys there is no way I could justify taking him. I'd also take Fitz and Moss over him in a heartbeat.

 

[Captain Hook]

......because they want to score MORE points?

 

[andrew11]

i agree about CJ - he is slightly scary with that QB, but AJ over Wayne is a no-brainer in my eyes....especially in a PPR

 

[ookook]

i agree about CJ - he is slightly scary with that QB, but AJ over Wayne is a no-brainer in my eyes....especially in a PPR

Because they underestimate how many TDs Peyton Manning will throw this year?

 

[Avery]

Several years ago, I wrote a thread called why in the world would anyone draft Moss ahead of TO or Harrison? Moss was a super stud at that time, but I didn't understand why he was so heavily touted on this board over TO and Harrison before that season. Harrison ended up prevailing that season.

Not to discount your entire argument, but being right on a WR call previously before has nothing to do with this.

 

[iSnitch]

You can't really go wrong drafting any of them. They should all end the year with great numbers and they all have a solid chance to finish as the top guy.

It's simply a matter of which guy you're comfortable with...I prefer AJ/CJ, but there's nothing wrong with taking Wayne instead.

 

[moderated]

i don't really get this question.

AJ/CJ are better then Wayne, already are outproducing him, and are on the upside of their careers.

Taking Wayne over either of them is bizarre IMO.

 

[Sweet Love]

Wayne is fine, but realize he has a NEW HC, NEW OC and is w/o Harrison (sure, he was last year too, but teams seem to be able to adjust better in situations like that in Year 2). Hey, as much as we want to think "we know it", we are all guessing here, but I would take CJ/AJ just because their chances of success are better.

 

[supermark_28]

I can't do the research at work but it would be interesting to see red zone targets on all 3 of these WR's.

On the surface,my guess is that Indy targets Clark more in the red zone while AJ and CJ see more of their

teams RZ targets.

 

[Touchdown Syndrome]

Calvin put up fantastic numbers in only his second year, on an 0-16 team, with Jerry's Kids throwing him the ball, on an offense that was ranked almost dead last in time of possession. That is insane. The only posssible argument for Wayne ahead of CJ is that Wayne has Peyton....but that wasn't such a major factor last season, was it?

The only argument for Wayne over AJ is AJ's history of getting banged up and missing games. Not enough of a risk, IMO, to take Wayne ahead of him.

 

[Novice2]

The Texans suck

The Lions suck

Wayne has Peyton f'n Manning forget the new this or that.

But of course AJ and CJ and super stud freaks and should never be passed on so by all means draft them.

 

[Buffaloes]

The Texans suck

The Lions suck

Wayne has Peyton f'n Manning forget the new this or that.

But of course AJ and CJ and super stud freaks and should never be passed on so by all means draft them.

I guess I should have prefaced my previous post by saying I play in leagues don't withhold points from players on teams that suck and they also don't reward bonus players for playing with Peyton f'n Manning. Sorry about that. Please adjust your rankings accordingly.

 

[Eminence]

Reggie Wayne's Career Year:

1,510 Yards / 10 TDS

Quarterback: Peyton Manning

Team Record: 13-3

Calvin Johnson's Career Year:

1,332 Yards / 12 TDS

Quarterback: ...

Team Record: 0-16

Andre Johnson's Career Year:

1,575 Yards / 8 TDS

Quarterback: An injured Matt Schaub / Sage Rosenfels

Team Record: 8-8

-

End Thread.

 

[Balance]

Reggie Wayne's Career Year:1,210 Yards / 12 TDSQuarterback: Peyton ManningTeam Record: 12-4Calvin Johnson's Career Year:1,332 Yards / 12 TDSQuarterback: ...Team Record: 0-16Andre Johnson's Career Year:1,575 Yards / 8 TDSQuarterback: An injured Matt Schaub / Sage RosenfelsTeam Record: 8-8-End Thread.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Calvin put up fantastic numbers in only his second year, on an 0-16 team, with Jerry's Kids throwing him the ball, on an offense that was ranked almost dead last in time of possession. That is insane. The only posssible argument for Wayne ahead of CJ is that Wayne has Peyton....but that wasn't such a major factor last season, was it?

The only argument for Wayne over AJ is AJ's history of getting banged up and missing games. Not enough of a risk, IMO, to take Wayne ahead of him.

Detroit ranked 18th in pass attempts last season. That's not great, but it's a far cry from the situation you're painting.

 

[Northbound Train]

Ceilings and potential for a huge year.I don't think Calvin's situation could possibly get worse than it was last year and he still managed 1,331 yards and 12 TDs.Think about that. The Lions were 0-16. An AWFUL team. Worst ever, arguably. This guy was in his second NFL season and EVERYONE knew who the ball was going to and he still put up those numbers.One has to think he'll only get better in his third year. The potential is scary.

Enough said...CJ's head is sticking through Wayne's ceiling

 

[Grahamburn]

Ceilings and potential for a huge year.I don't think Calvin's situation could possibly get worse than it was last year and he still managed 1,331 yards and 12 TDs.Think about that. The Lions were 0-16. An AWFUL team. Worst ever, arguably. This guy was in his second NFL season and EVERYONE knew who the ball was going to and he still put up those numbers.One has to think he'll only get better in his third year. The potential is scary.

Enough said...CJ's head is sticking through Wayne's ceiling

Thanks. I'll be targeting Calvin again this season in the early second round. I'm not sure if that's a reach or not, but I don't want to miss out when he shows that world that he's the best player in the NFL.

 

[travdogg]

Reggie Wayne's Career Year:

1,210 Yards / 12 TDS

Quarterback: Peyton Manning

Team Record: 12-4

Calvin Johnson's Career Year:

1,332 Yards / 12 TDS

Quarterback: ...

Team Record: 0-16

Andre Johnson's Career Year:

1,575 Yards / 8 TDS

Quarterback: An injured Matt Schaub / Sage Rosenfels

Team Record: 8-8

-

End Thread.

2007 down?1,510 yards and 10 TD's ring a bell? Wayne's career year tops both Andre Johnson's career year and Calvin Johnson's career year. There is no reason Wayne can't do that again, just like there is no reason AJ and Calvin can't repeat 2008. Frankly all of them could top those career highs this year if they can get the end zone a little more.

I'm not saying I'd take Wayne over the Johnsons for sure, but it sounds like a lot of people are really selling Wayne short. I think all three of these guys are top-5 WR's and really have no gripe in what order they are taken. I think I'd take Moss over all of them, including Fitz.

 

[Fantaholic]

I think instead of worrying a great deal about these top notch guys who barring injury are all going to be valuable you should really not sweat to much about which ever one of these guys you can get (if you can get them). I mean you can argue until you are blue in the face for anyone of these guys and really every person can make a REALLY good argument for each player.

Furthermore, it seems like the perfect year to wait on the WR position. There aren't many sure things at WR this year. I am going to let other guys draft these so called "top tier" WR's and grab myself two RB's.

 

[Mark Wimer]

Several years ago, I wrote a thread called why in the world would anyone draft Moss ahead of TO or Harrison? Moss was a super stud at that time, but I didn't understand why he was so heavily touted on this board over TO and Harrison before that season. Harrison ended up prevailing that season.This season, I have a similar feeling about Wayne taking a back seat on these boards to the Johnson brothers, Andre and Calvin. AJ and CJ are the sexy picks around here, with seeminly great potential. All 3 WRs will cost an early pick in redraft leagues. Here is what bothers me about AJ and CJ, without going into detailed ##s during my limited time this morning.Andre Johnson has not put together stud back to back seasons for a variety of reasons. It seems like around here, for certain players, we accept excuses when we want to tout certain players and yet use some of those same reasons to bash other players who are also talented. The no back to back stud season factor is relevant to me, as well as question marks about whether his QB can stay healthy. With the departure of Rosenfels, AJ looks too risky compared to Wayne.Calvin Johnson is a stud, but the QB situation scares me. Can a WR be such a superstud that a washed up QB or a rookie QB thowing to him on a beaten down team such as DET can still enable the WR to statistically blow away the likes of Wayne?I realize that there are question marks in Indy as well, but historically, the question marks in previous years have worked out pretty well with Indy's #1 WR, minus the years when Harrison was unhealthy. Wayne's history has not suggested siginificant health problems.BOTTOM LINE: When spending such a draft pick on one of these 3 WRs, my question would be whether you really believe that AJ or CJ would outshine Wayne so much that the risk is worth it? Despite a subpar year, Wayne has shown enough that his floor should be acceptable for a highly picked #1 WR, whereas AJ and CJ seem like a crapshoot to me. Total season numbers, not PPG numbers matter more for your #1 WR.

In my eyes, Wayne is the clear #2 WR (PPR or no PPR) this year behind Fitzgerald. Of the other 2 you cite, Calvin Johnson seems like the best bet to land among the elite, top 5 WRs by year's end - he proved he could produce despite abysmal QB play last year, I see no reason to doubt his ability to do so with a more-settled lineup this year (Culpepper until the Lions are out of contention or until Stafford is ready, then Stafford). I agree that the departure of Rosenfels could negatively impact Andre Johnson, but then again it's within the realm of possibility that Schaub plays a full slate of 16 this year. In any case, Andre Johnson has the elite talent without question, it's the other pieces of the puzzle there that put him below Wayne and Calvin Johnson, IMO. And the fact that the AFC South is a brutal division with Tenn/Ind on the sched twice (Colts - 6th in the NFL in pass yards allowed last year; Titans 9th) and also the Raiders (week 4, 10th last year in pass yards allowed per game) - especially brutal in weeks 9-12 (Colts, bye, Titans, Colts) - ouch for Andre Johnson/the Texans' pass game in that 4-game stretch (no byes in fantasy schedules).

 

[Grahamburn]

Maybe I can speak for the other guys who owned Calvin last year.

We would be in the Shark Pool every week debating whether or not to start him with all of the negative variables working against him, at least I was with Wayne and Roddy White on my roster as well, and every single week he would produce in spite of those problems.

Jon Kitna throwing the ball to anyone who will catch it, Dan Orlovsky running out of the end zone, and Daunte Culpepper off of the scrap heap just chucking it.

The numbers Calvin was able to muster with the absolute turmoil surrounding the Lions and no other weapons on the field absolutely amazes me.

Maybe I'm alone? 78 catches for 1331 yards and 12 TDs. It's unreal when you think about it.

I can't possibly imagine his situation getting worse, and if the Lions are even a little better I just want to make sure he's on my team. Wayne isn't close.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

In my eyes, Wayne is the clear #2 WR (PPR or no PPR) this year behind Fitzgerald. Of the other 2 you cite, Calvin Johnson seems like the best bet to land among the elite, top 5 WRs by year's end - he proved he could produce despite abysmal QB play last year, I see no reason to doubt his ability to do so with a more-settled lineup this year (Culpepper until the Lions are out of contention or until Stafford is ready, then Stafford). I agree that the departure of Rosenfels could negatively impact Andre Johnson, but then again it's within the realm of possibility that Schaub plays a full slate of 16 this year. In any case, Andre Johnson has the elite talent without question, it's the other pieces of the puzzle there that put him below Wayne and Calvin Johnson, IMO. And the fact that the AFC South is a brutal division with Tenn/Ind on the sched twice (Colts - 6th in the NFL in pass yards allowed last year; Titans 9th) and also the Raiders (week 4, 10th last year in pass yards allowed per game) - especially brutal in weeks 9-12 (Colts, bye, Titans, Colts) - ouch for Andre Johnson/the Texans' pass game in that 4-game stretch (no byes in fantasy schedules).

Call me crazy, but I didn't see anything in there explaining why Wayne is the "clear" #2 WR this year.CJ and AJ produced numbers basically equivalent to Wayne's CAREER best this past year, and CJ and AJ did it in poor and mediocre situations whereas Wayne needed basically the absolute best situation imaginable for a WR to put up those numbers. That's not even to mention that they put up those great seasons more recently than Wayne did.If you're really worried that Schaub could miss a lot of time this year, I could maybe see someone grabbing Wayne over AJ. I have no earthly idea why anyone would even contemplate grabbing Wayne over CJ when CJ just put up numbers equivalent to Wayne's career best (with Peyton Manning as his quarterback) with a rotating barage of awful QBs in his second year in the league.

 

[Instinctive]

In my eyes, Wayne is the clear #2 WR (PPR or no PPR) this year behind Fitzgerald. Of the other 2 you cite, Calvin Johnson seems like the best bet to land among the elite, top 5 WRs by year's end - he proved he could produce despite abysmal QB play last year, I see no reason to doubt his ability to do so with a more-settled lineup this year (Culpepper until the Lions are out of contention or until Stafford is ready, then Stafford). I agree that the departure of Rosenfels could negatively impact Andre Johnson, but then again it's within the realm of possibility that Schaub plays a full slate of 16 this year. In any case, Andre Johnson has the elite talent without question, it's the other pieces of the puzzle there that put him below Wayne and Calvin Johnson, IMO. And the fact that the AFC South is a brutal division with Tenn/Ind on the sched twice (Colts - 6th in the NFL in pass yards allowed last year; Titans 9th) and also the Raiders (week 4, 10th last year in pass yards allowed per game) - especially brutal in weeks 9-12 (Colts, bye, Titans, Colts) - ouch for Andre Johnson/the Texans' pass game in that 4-game stretch (no byes in fantasy schedules).

Call me crazy, but I didn't see anything in there explaining why Wayne is the "clear" #2 WR this year.CJ and AJ produced numbers basically equivalent to Wayne's CAREER best this past year, and CJ and AJ did it in poor and mediocre situations whereas Wayne needed basically the absolute best situation imaginable for a WR to put up those numbers. That's not even to mention that they put up those great seasons more recently than Wayne did.If you're really worried that Schaub could miss a lot of time this year, I could maybe see someone grabbing Wayne over AJ. I have no earthly idea why anyone would even contemplate grabbing Wayne over CJ when CJ just put up numbers equivalent to Wayne's career best (with Peyton Manning as his quarterback) with a rotating barage of awful QBs in his second year in the league.

Please og to the thread recently made, I foget if it was spotlight or just a QB tiering thread, where Matt Schaub is discussed in detail. Want to know why he missed games last year?????1 game - had the flu, dehydrated and dysfuntional due to intense vomiting and diahreaStretch of what, 2 games? ----Jared Allen fined $50 grand for each of 2 cheapshots ot Schaub's knees. Schaub comes back 2 weeks early from diagnosis of minimally 4 weeks out1 more game - concussion from helmet-to-helmet hit, opposing safety fined $25000 and Scaub came back after missing one game.But if you want to call him fragile, go for it. I'll call him unlcuky and foruitous and take his value. Andre3000 is a beast with a very good QB.And this entire thread is a bit of a waste, because of the consensus top 5 it is almost factually guaranteed that no more than 2, and probably only 1 at best, of them willl repeat in the top 5. Here is why:TOP 5 WR, BY YEAR (1pt/10yd, 6 pts TD) 2000 - (Randy)Moss, Harrison, Owens, (Rod)Smith, Bruce2001 - Harrison, Owens, Boston, (Rod)Smith, (Jimmy)Smith2002 - Harrison, Owens, Ward, Moulds, Toomer2003 - (Randy)Moss, Holt, Ocho Cinco, Harrison, Boldin2004 - Muhammed, Walker, Horn, Owens, Harrison2005 - (Steve)Smith, (Santana)Moss, Fitzgerald, Ocho Cinco, Galloway2006 - Harrison, Owens, Wayne, Ocho Cinco, Holt2007 - Moss, Owens, Edwards, Wayne, Fitzgerald2008 - Fitzgerald, (Andre)Johnson, (Calvin)Johnson, Jennings, WhiteCOMMENTARYThere was carryover of 3 players only once during this span (00-01), 2 players twice (01-02, 06-07), 1 player four times (02-03, 03-04, 05-06, 07-08) and zero players once (04-05). Given this sample, about half the time there will be only one player to return to the top 5. Harrison had an impressive streak of 5 seasons from 00-04 with the second longest streak being TO at 3 seasons. Harrison was the only player to repeat as top FF WR. Harrison was the only player to make it back in the top 5 after being the top FF WR the year prior and did it twice.

 

[Johnny Ice]

I've drafted Wayne the last two years as my #1, and I would take AJ or CJ in a heartbeat over him this year. I just think their athleticism overcomes matchup issues whereas Wayne has a very smart QB that will go other places when Wayne draws the double teams. AJ and CJ are just pure studly.

 

[Bri]

new offense

 

[puckalicious]

I think instead of worrying a great deal about these top notch guys who barring injury are all going to be valuable you should really not sweat to much about which ever one of these guys you can get (if you can get them). I mean you can argue until you are blue in the face for anyone of these guys and really every person can make a REALLY good argument for each player.

Furthermore, it seems like the perfect year to wait on the WR position. There aren't many sure things at WR this year. I am going to let other guys draft these so called "top tier" WR's and grab myself two RB's.

There's also no sure thing at RB, especially towards the bottom of the first round where most people consider taking a WR instead.

 

[Addai's Adidas]

I just like the color of Cj's jersey better than the others.

 

[valence]

I'd take Steve Smith over Wayne, not to mention these three.

 

[Manster]

I think instead of worrying a great deal about these top notch guys who barring injury are all going to be valuable you should really not sweat to much about which ever one of these guys you can get (if you can get them). I mean you can argue until you are blue in the face for anyone of these guys and really every person can make a REALLY good argument for each player.

of these 3 i personally like AJ the most, but would be happy with any of them if thats how the cards fell.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Several years ago, I wrote a thread called why in the world would anyone draft Moss ahead of TO or Harrison? Moss was a super stud at that time, but I didn't understand why he was so heavily touted on this board over TO and Harrison before that season. Harrison ended up prevailing that season.

Couldn't you just bump that thread?

 

[iSnitch]

I just like the color of Cj's jersey better than the others.

That's a good a reason as any to draft one guy over the others. It's not like the OP is arguing to take Holt or Branch over these guys...and they all have an equal shot to finish as the top guy. No shame in whichever guy you prefer, nor should anyone be mocked for whatever order they have them in.

 

[teamroc]

Reggie Wayne's Career Year:1,210 Yards / 12 TDSQuarterback: Peyton ManningTeam Record: 12-4Calvin Johnson's Career Year:1,332 Yards / 12 TDSQuarterback: ...Team Record: 0-16Andre Johnson's Career Year:1,575 Yards / 8 TDSQuarterback: An injured Matt Schaub / Sage RosenfelsTeam Record: 8-8-End Thread.

Not really. Might want to re-check those numbers. Wayne actually has the best career year, so I assume both your heads are about to explode.

 

[bcr8f]

Why?

Because they think they'll score more points?

 

[Frank Black]

I have seen enough good points so far by several of you to make me re-think these 3 WRs. However, I still don't understand why AJ's subperb talent level should so greatly overshadow the fact that he has not produced as a stud for 2 consecutive years. Why are so many people comfortable that this year will be the first year where he will be a stud in back to back seasons? I actually find it more persuasive over the AJ arguments that CJ's floor is low.

For those promoting Fitz over Wayne, that is a no brainer and is irelevant to the discussion because Fitz will be long gone by the time that anyone reasonably considering picking Wayne would draft Wayne.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I have seen enough good points so far by several of you to make me re-think these 3 WRs. However, I still don't understand why AJ's subperb talent level should so greatly overshadow the fact that he has not produced as a stud for 2 consecutive years. Why are so many people comfortable that this year will be the first year where he will be a stud in back to back seasons? I actually find it more persuasive over the AJ arguments that CJ's floor is low. For those promoting Fitz over Wayne, that is a no brainer and is irelevant to the discussion because Fitz will be long gone by the time that anyone reasonably considering picking Wayne would draft Wayne.

He has, he just got hurt in 2007. Prior to that he was on pace for 1550 yards and 15 TDs.Look, I've brought this up many times over the years, but the reason so many people missed the boat on Andre Johnson is that he played with David Carr for years. We've seen it with two stud WRs now. AJ with David Carr was mediocre, AJ with every other quarterback was an absolute stud. Steve Smith with David Carr was horrible (40 yards and 0.2 TDs per game with Carr), Steve Smith with every other quarterback was an absolute stud (including Vinny Testeverde, Matt Moore, etc).Seriously, when you're evaluating a WR you need to just throw any games they played with David Carr out. No one would even remember Jerry Rice's name if he had played his entire career with David Carr as his quarterback. The fact that AJ was even mediocre with Carr in there is phenomenal.I don't have the time to dig up the actual numbers I ran last year on AJ and Steve Smith with David Carr as their QB vs. anyone else as their QB, but I think you get the picture. It's not even close. Not even close to close.

 

[Tau837]

I have seen enough good points so far by several of you to make me re-think these 3 WRs. However, I still don't understand why AJ's subperb talent level should so greatly overshadow the fact that he has not produced as a stud for 2 consecutive years. Why are so many people comfortable that this year will be the first year where he will be a stud in back to back seasons? I actually find it more persuasive over the AJ arguments that CJ's floor is low. For those promoting Fitz over Wayne, that is a no brainer and is irelevant to the discussion because Fitz will be long gone by the time that anyone reasonably considering picking Wayne would draft Wayne. :(

He has, he just got hurt in 2007. Prior to that he was on pace for 1550 yards and 15 TDs.Look, I've brought this up many times over the years, but the reason so many people missed the boat on Andre Johnson is that he played with David Carr for years. We've seen it with two stud WRs now. AJ with David Carr was mediocre, AJ with every other quarterback was an absolute stud. Steve Smith with David Carr was horrible (40 yards and 0.2 TDs per game with Carr), Steve Smith with every other quarterback was an absolute stud (including Vinny Testeverde, Matt Moore, etc).Seriously, when you're evaluating a WR you need to just throw any games they played with David Carr out. No one would even remember Jerry Rice's name if he had played his entire career with David Carr as his quarterback. The fact that AJ was even mediocre with Carr in there is phenomenal.I don't have the time to dig up the actual numbers I ran last year on AJ and Steve Smith with David Carr as their QB vs. anyone else as their QB, but I think you get the picture. It's not even close. Not even close to close.

Here's one of your previous posts on this:

In the 5 games that Carr played, Smith never had 50 yards receiving in a single one, and in three of them he had less than TWENTY yards receiving.In the 8 games with Testeverde, Moore, and Weinke he had 51 catches for 562 yards and 2 TDs. Over a 16 game season those prorate out to 102 catches for 1124 yards and 4 TDs. Not great, but not awful considering the QBs and really the only thing lacking is the TDs, which are difficult to predict from year to year anyhow.I'm willing to give people a pass when they play with David Carr. We've now seen two of the NFL's elite WRs (Andre Johnson and Steve Smith) be much worse with David Carr than they were with even mediocre to bad QBs like Schaub, Delhomme, Rosenfels, Moore, Testverde, and Weinke.In fact, I don't think there's a QB in the NFL (even counting backups) that can kill a stud WR's numbers as badly as David Carr can.

 

[Mark Wimer]

In my eyes, Wayne is the clear #2 WR (PPR or no PPR) this year behind Fitzgerald. Of the other 2 you cite, Calvin Johnson seems like the best bet to land among the elite, top 5 WRs by year's end - he proved he could produce despite abysmal QB play last year, I see no reason to doubt his ability to do so with a more-settled lineup this year (Culpepper until the Lions are out of contention or until Stafford is ready, then Stafford). I agree that the departure of Rosenfels could negatively impact Andre Johnson, but then again it's within the realm of possibility that Schaub plays a full slate of 16 this year. In any case, Andre Johnson has the elite talent without question, it's the other pieces of the puzzle there that put him below Wayne and Calvin Johnson, IMO. And the fact that the AFC South is a brutal division with Tenn/Ind on the sched twice (Colts - 6th in the NFL in pass yards allowed last year; Titans 9th) and also the Raiders (week 4, 10th last year in pass yards allowed per game) - especially brutal in weeks 9-12 (Colts, bye, Titans, Colts) - ouch for Andre Johnson/the Texans' pass game in that 4-game stretch (no byes in fantasy schedules).

Call me crazy, but I didn't see anything in there explaining why Wayne is the "clear" #2 WR this year.

I'll be glad to expand on that - my WR rankings for PPR and non-PPR are a matter of public record so I was just reiterating what has already been published on the site regarding my slotting of Wayne in this particular post. First of all, Peyton Manning and Wayne will have the benefit of a full slate of OTAs/Mini-camps/etc this year which wasn't true last year due to the bursal sack situation. Manning is legendary for his deliberate, methodical preparation each year which wasn't fully articulated last year due to the knee injury situation - he started the first 3 games with only 1 TD per game and threw more interceptions (4) than TDs (3) in the early going last year, largely due to being (for Peyton Manning), "rusty" in my opinion. Week 4 was the bye, then we see the usual, efficient Peyton Manning again starting week 5, with outliers vs. GB week 7 and Cle week 13. He had multiple TD games through week 16 excepting weeks 7, 13, and week 15 (vs. Detroit's awful rush D) - only 7 pass attempts week 17, of which he completed all 7. Basically, he wasn't in synch until October, thanks to the injury. This year, Manning will be fully back in his "groove" by the time training camp rolls around, something that wasn't the case last year. Factor #1 indicating to me that Wayne's numbers should improve during '09 is the above.Secondly, no Marvin Harrison on the team. Harrison accounted for a minimum of 107 targets in each of the last 5 seasons excepting injury-marred 2007 (when he had a mere 5 games played and 32 targets). Exhibit A - during 2007, with Harrison limited, Wayne enjoyed a career high of 156 targets and a career high of 104 receptions with a career high 1510 yards receiving (and the second-most TDs in his career, with 10). Exhibit B - who else besides Wayne, Gonzalez and Clark are likely to earn the majority of the 107+ targets per season that Harrison used to command on the Colts? IMO, those 3 still with the team will all see a minimum of 25 more passes each this season. Thanks for asking for clarification, hope that the above helps. MW

 

[Eminence]

Reggie Wayne's Career Year:

1,510 Yards / 10 TDS

Quarterback: Peyton Manning

Team Record: 13-3

Calvin Johnson's Career Year:

1,332 Yards / 12 TDS

Quarterback: ...

Team Record: 0-16

Andre Johnson's Career Year:

1,575 Yards / 8 TDS

Quarterback: An injured Matt Schaub / Sage Rosenfels

Team Record: 8-8

-

End Thread.

Not really. Might want to re-check those numbers. Wayne actually has the best career year, so I assume both your heads are about to explode.

I fixed my original post. But my statements still remain. Reggie Wayne pulled off a career year that was marginally better than CJ's and AJ's. While having a Hall of Fame Quarterback throwing to him, and a playoff 13-3 team.Andre Johnson:

2007 Season: Before injury he was projected to get 1,500 Yards 14 TDs.

2008 Season: This time he stays healthy, but his QB doesn't. He ends up with 1,575 8TDS.

2009 Season: Looking at the potential of his 2007 season... and what he actually did do in his 2008 season. We know he's a lock for 1,500 yards. But what if he and his QB both stay healthy? Skies the limit.

His floor is 1,400 Yards / 6TDs.

Calvin Johnson:

2007 Season: Greatest WR prospect in years. Side by side with Roy Williams, Jon Kitna throwing him the rock. Kid gets injured and puts up. 756 Yards / 4 TDS We all wonder what he can accomplish if healthy and when more familiar with the system.

2008 Season: Calvin posts an amazing Sophomore Season 1,331 Yards / 12 TDs. On the worst team in NFL history. With a carousel of QBs. It's astonishing. All with only 78 receptions.

2009 Season: Whether it's Culpepper or Stafford starting at QB, there will be stability at the QB position. The team will most likely be better than last year, providing more opportunity. BTW it's Johnson's 3rd year in the league.

RECIPE FOR AN AMAZING SEASON! OPEN YOUR EYES!

Reggie Wayne:

It's not the fact we don't value Reggie Wayne. We know he's capable of top numbers but when it comes to Fantasy Football most of the time people are going for the Home Run. I'll say he's the Clinton Portis of WR. Wayne posted an amazing 2007 season 1500+ 10 TDs. But that's when all the stars aligned for him:

1.) Harrison injured.

2.) Addai's running like a madman.

3.) The Colts are pretty much dancing to the Super Bowl.

If there's anything you want to read in this post, it's right here:

Reggie Wayne's current situation is far away from the situation he was in during his career year. Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson are both in better situations than they were from their previous career years. Years which rivaled Reggie Wayne's.

Year. Year. Year.

Reggie Wayne = Buy low. He'll produce.

Calvin Johnson = Buy High, hold.

Andre Johnson = Buy High, sell after this season.

 

[FavreCo]

Thread title needs changed to 'why in the world would anyone ever draft Wayne over Calvin or Andre Johnson'. Along with the obvious that both are superior talents, both of them produce regardless of who the QB is. If Manning were to go down, Wayne's value would drop like a rock. That team would change O philosophy immediately and become a running team.

 

[StackTheLine]

I can't do the research at work but it would be interesting to see red zone targets on all 3 of these WR's. On the surface,my guess is that Indy targets Clark more in the red zone while AJ and CJ see more of theirteams RZ targets.

Player		  Targets 	Rec 	Yrds 	ReTDAndre Johnson	  25 	16 	143 	5Calvin Johnson  11 	5 	70 	4Reggie Wayne	  7 	4 	21 	2Dallas Clark	  18	  15	  104	  6

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Andre Johnson:

2007 Season: Before injury he was projected to get 1,500 Yards 4 TDs.

Actually he was projected out to get 1500 yards and 15 TDs.He had 850 yards and 8 TDs through 9 games.

 

[Frank Black]

I'll say again that many of the comments have given me a new outlook on these 3 WRs. However, projections re: AJ's 2007 season don't mean squat to me. My primary point about AJ is that he is an up and down WR on a season to season basis. It's too easy to dismiss this due to injuries, Carr, etc. but the truth is we don't know whether he can be a stud in back to back seasons until we see him do it. At this point, I would be willing to draft CJ ahead of AJ.