Why is Big Ben SO underrated...? (1 Viewer)

[TheDirtyWord]

When you look at the ADP report this year, you see that on the consensus rankings as of 7/24, BB is the 63rd overall player being drafted and the 10th QB. Among the QB's being drafted ahead of him are Matt Ryan. In addition, the next QB11 is Josh Freeman being drafted in the consensus 69 slot.

My question is why is Big Ben grouped in with this category of QB's and not the elite ones? What's the mindset?

The last two seasons have seen BB put up the following per game numbers.

278.8 Yards Passing

1.6 TD's

0.6 INT's

9.6 Yards Rushing

.15 TD's.

If you were to look strictly at the numbers, these compare with any QB outside of Vick/Rodgers. While his per game TD numbers are low, so is his INT totals so that helps cancel out the low point totals he might get dinged for in that respect.

And I recognize his off-season troubles of a year ago but the FF Community really should see stats only. Certain individuals might exclude BB from their rankings on principle, but not as a whole. Certainly moral issues haven't hindered Vick's draft status.

Quite frankly, in terms of production, BB can put his numbers up against any QB. The only reason his not in the Vick/Rodgers category is because they offer significant rushing totals on top of prolific passing numbers.

But what's clear to me is that in the Brees/Manning/Rivers/Brady category, Big Ben's numbers are right there with them and in some cases better. Yet he seems to hold Ryan/Freeman type status. Why is that?

 

[Sabertooth]

He looked like crap in the Super Bowl against a good pass defense. Plus he's a goon.

 

[gethugefast1]

Try to keep it on the down low...

 

[beerbarron]

When you look at the ADP report this year, you see that on the consensus rankings as of 7/24, BB is the 63rd overall player being drafted and the 10th QB. Among the QB's being drafted ahead of him are Matt Ryan. In addition, the next QB11 is Josh Freeman being drafted in the consensus 69 slot.

My question is why is Big Ben grouped in with this category of QB's and not the elite ones? What's the mindset?

The last two seasons have seen BB put up the following per game numbers.

278.8 Yards Passing

1.6 TD's

0.6 INT's

9.6 Yards Rushing

.15 TD's.

If you were to look strictly at the numbers, these compare with any QB outside of Vick/Rodgers. While his per game TD numbers are low, so is his INT totals so that helps cancel out the low point totals he might get dinged for in that respect.

And I recognize his off-season troubles of a year ago but the FF Community really should see stats only. Certain individuals might exclude BB from their rankings on principle, but not as a whole. Certainly moral issues haven't hindered Vick's draft status.

Quite frankly, in terms of production, BB can put his numbers up against any QB. The only reason his not in the Vick/Rodgers category is because they offer significant rushing totals on top of prolific passing numbers.

But what's clear to me is that in the Brees/Manning/Rivers/Brady category, Big Ben's numbers are right there with them and in some cases better. Yet he seems to hold Ryan/Freeman type status. Why is that?

I own BB in one FF dynasty league.. got him below market value.. and feel the same way.. he puts up good numbers..A few things that I think of...

Pit is tradionaly viewed as a run first O.. This hurts BB's percieved FF value..

Hes not an elite pocket passer in a pass happy offense or franchise... His BSPN passing highlights arent as pretty as Brady, Manning etc.. Bens highlights are running around, avoiding the rush.. then throwing a pass down field.. Perhaps FFootball owners feel he gets lucky and instead would rather have the statuesque Manning hitting Wayne with a precision pass for a TD...

Depending on your league scoring.. he fumbles a lot and gets sacked a bit.. his fumbles cost FF points.. if you lose a game by 2 points due to Bens fumbles... your thinking.. just get rid of the ball.. well BB doesnt play that way..

He has also missed games for different reasons over that last few years....

 

[steelcityman]

He threw the football thru a pin hole in the last seconds of the Super Bowl to win his 2nd SB. Thats not good enough.

 

[Slider]

He's a little above average with an extraordinary defensive coordinator. When the DC retires you'll see.

 

[Chase Stuart]

It's a good question, and a good thread. I think, rightly or wrongly, people ding him because of Pittsburgh's perceieved run-first offense and the ups and downs in his career. In 2008, he was the 21st best fantasy player on a PPG basis (http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/game-log-dominator.php?group=1&minyr=2008&maxyr=2008&minwk=1&maxwk=17&player=all&tm=all&opp=all&pos=qb&minage=19&maxage=46&minexp=1&maxexp=25&home=all&win=all&stat1=fppg&stat1min=10&stat1max=&stat2=none&stat2min=&stat2max=&stat3=none&stat3min=&stat3max=&stat4=none&stat4min=&stat4max=&sortby1=s1&ad1=desc&sortby2=wk&ad2=asc&display=ps).

Because of his style of play and his OL, he's got some injury risk.

That said, he has ranked in the top three in yards per pass each of the past two seasons. That's impressive. OTOH, Pittsburgh still ranked just 27th in pass attempts last year. Brees/Manning/Rivers/Brady all play in more passer-friendly offenses and are all fantastic quarterbacks. So it's not hard to see why you'd have them a cut above Ben. I think it's hard to put him above them, or Vick/Rodgers/Romo, but the gap between those seven and Roethlisberger may be much smaller than the market indicates.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The last three seasons Big Ben has finished QB6, QB10, and QB22.Those are ppg numbers, which are generous for Big Ben since he's missed time. In terms of pure finish, he's been QB15, QB9, QB19.Tell me again how that's "right there" with Aaron Rodgers, who finished as QB2 and QB1 the last two seasons?Sure, he's closer to that Rivers/Peyton/Brady/Brees tier than most give him credit for, but why would you take him over any of them? He's had injury issues before and is another boneheaded move away from missing a lot of time. He's also a lot more inconsistent from year to year than those other guys. He's just as likely to finish QB25 as he is QB3, which isn't true for the other guys. So why would you take him over a guy like Peyton/Brady who's going to score a few more points, is a guaranteed top performer, and almost never miss any time?Why would you take him over a guy like Rivers who also rarely misses time and has outscored BB despite his receiving core being absolutely dessimated by injuries, holdouts, etc. Imagine what Rivers could do if his receivers actually stick around for a whole year. And if they don't, well he still outscored BB with Gates only playing half a year and his WR1, WR2, and WR3 all missing 75% of the year anyway.I get what you're saying, BB's fantasy stats are quietly better than people think. But who exactly do you want to move him up above? He's more risky, has a lower ceiling, and a lower floor than all the guys ranked around him while not really putting up any more points than them to justify the extra risk.

He's a little above average with an extraordinary defensive coordinator. When the DC retires you'll see.

This thread is about his fantasy numbers. I would think a worse defense would help those numbers, not hurt them.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

The last three seasons Big Ben has finished QB6, QB10, and QB22.Those are ppg numbers, which are generous for Big Ben since he's missed time. In terms of pure finish, he's been QB15, QB9, QB19.Tell me again how that's "right there" with Aaron Rodgers, who finished as QB2 and QB1 the last two seasons?Sure, he's closer to that Rivers/Peyton/Brady/Brees tier than most give him credit for, but why would you take him over any of them? He's had injury issues before and is another boneheaded move away from missing a lot of time. He's also a lot more inconsistent from year to year than those other guys. He's just as likely to finish QB25 as he is QB3, which isn't true for the other guys. So why would you take him over a guy like Peyton/Brady who's going to score a few more points, is a guaranteed top performer, and almost never miss any time?Why would you take him over a guy like Rivers who also rarely misses time and has outscored BB despite his receiving core being absolutely dessimated by injuries, holdouts, etc. Imagine what Rivers could do if his receivers actually stick around for a whole year. And if they don't, well he still outscored BB with Gates only playing half a year and his WR1, WR2, and WR3 all missing 75% of the year anyway.I get what you're saying, BB's fantasy stats are quietly better than people think. But who exactly do you want to move him up above? He's more risky, has a lower ceiling, and a lower floor than all the guys ranked around him while not really putting up any more points than them to justify the extra risk.

What I would argue is not that you should take BB over Manning or any of the guys listed. And I do stipulate that Vick/Rodgers occupy another tier.But in terms of PPG game production, I see a player who over the 2009-2010 seasons has performed at an close to equal stastical level to the 4 QB's I mentioned. I don't even include Romo and he appears to me to be a far greater injury risk. But BB is a guy I see being taken in Round 6 & 7 for the most part in mocks. The 4 QB's I mention above are Round 2-4 guys.As far as injury issues, all of the QB's mentioned have them. Manning = neck, Brady = ACL/foot, Brees = shoulder/knee, Rivers = knee. In fact, that last 2 seasons have seen BB miss one game due to injury. Do I move BB up above any of those names...I don't know if I would, you could probably make a case for it, but I do recognize that it seems that there is a obviously a bigger comfort level with Brees/Manning/Brady et al. However, what I don't get is why guys like Romo/Ryan/Freeman are ranked at or above.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

It's a good question, and a good thread. I think, rightly or wrongly, people ding him because of Pittsburgh's perceieved run-first offense and the ups and downs in his career. In 2008, he was the 21st best fantasy player on a PPG basis (http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/game-log-dominator.php?group=1&minyr=2008&maxyr=2008&minwk=1&maxwk=17&player=all&tm=all&opp=all&pos=qb&minage=19&maxage=46&minexp=1&maxexp=25&home=all&win=all&stat1=fppg&stat1min=10&stat1max=&stat2=none&stat2min=&stat2max=&stat3=none&stat3min=&stat3max=&stat4=none&stat4min=&stat4max=&sortby1=s1&ad1=desc&sortby2=wk&ad2=asc&display=ps).

Because of his style of play and his OL, he's got some injury risk.

That said, he has ranked in the top three in yards per pass each of the past two seasons. That's impressive. OTOH, Pittsburgh still ranked just 27th in pass attempts last year. Brees/Manning/Rivers/Brady all play in more passer-friendly offenses and are all fantastic quarterbacks. So it's not hard to see why you'd have them a cut above Ben. I think it's hard to put him above them, or Vick/Rodgers/Romo, but the gap between those seven and Roethlisberger may be much smaller than the market indicates.

But when you take into account PIT's passing offense when BB was QB, it would be closer to 20th. Not saying that this is a great area to be in when you are considering statistical production in terms of at-bats. But BB over his career has been one of the best in history when it comes to YPA. So this should not be viewed as a negative when evaluating BB since it's an area he's shown historical excellence in.My point of contention is that when we tier QB's, that Manning/Brees/Rivers/Romo/Brady category should be expanded. Perhaps BB finds himself at the bottom of that ranking when all is said and done. But he doesn't even appear in the conversation and the owners drafting BB are getting perhaps the best value in the draft.

 

[Grahamburn]

However, what I don't get is why guys like Romo/Ryan/Freeman are ranked at or above.

Upside.

 

[humpback]

The last three seasons Big Ben has finished QB6, QB10, and QB22.Those are ppg numbers, which are generous for Big Ben since he's missed time. In terms of pure finish, he's been QB15, QB9, QB19.Tell me again how that's "right there" with Aaron Rodgers, who finished as QB2 and QB1 the last two seasons?Sure, he's closer to that Rivers/Peyton/Brady/Brees tier than most give him credit for, but why would you take him over any of them? He's had injury issues before and is another boneheaded move away from missing a lot of time. He's also a lot more inconsistent from year to year than those other guys. He's just as likely to finish QB25 as he is QB3, which isn't true for the other guys. So why would you take him over a guy like Peyton/Brady who's going to score a few more points, is a guaranteed top performer, and almost never miss any time?Why would you take him over a guy like Rivers who also rarely misses time and has outscored BB despite his receiving core being absolutely dessimated by injuries, holdouts, etc. Imagine what Rivers could do if his receivers actually stick around for a whole year. And if they don't, well he still outscored BB with Gates only playing half a year and his WR1, WR2, and WR3 all missing 75% of the year anyway.I get what you're saying, BB's fantasy stats are quietly better than people think. But who exactly do you want to move him up above? He's more risky, has a lower ceiling, and a lower floor than all the guys ranked around him while not really putting up any more points than them to justify the extra risk.

He's a little above average with an extraordinary defensive coordinator. When the DC retires you'll see.

This thread is about his fantasy numbers. I would think a worse defense would help those numbers, not hurt them.

 

[Tau837]

IMO it is clear that Vick, Rodgers, Brady, Peyton, Rivers, Brees, and Romo (in no particular order) should be ranked higher.

I doubt there is much of a spread between the #8 ADP QB and Roethlisberger, and that small spread can likely be attributed to perception that Roethlisberger is more likely to miss games (for multiple reasons).

So what exactly is the issue?

Those who see Roethlisberger as a top 5 fantasy QB should take advantage of his ADP and draft him later with confidence.

 

[Sabertooth]

IMO it is clear that Vick, Rodgers, Brady, Peyton, Rivers, Brees, and Romo (in no particular order) should be ranked higher.I doubt there is much of a spread between the #8 ADP QB and Roethlisberger, and that small spread can likely be attributed to perception that Roethlisberger is more likely to miss games (for multiple reasons).So what exactly is the issue?Those who see Roethlisberger as a top 5 fantasy QB should take advantage of his ADP and draft him later with confidence.

Exactly. I can't see taking Ben before any of your list there. After that it comes down to preference. I prefer a proven guy like Ben over a lesser proven guy like Freeman or Flacco.

 

[FF Ninja]

The missed time last year is the only reason I can think of. The guy threw for 3200 yards last year in 12 games and the staff projection in the spotlight thread was less than 3600 for this year. Craziness. I'm not a fan of the guy, but I'm a fan of value QBs. I'll be trying to land two of Ben, Cutler, Fitzpatrick while everyone else is overspending on the likes of Ryan, Stafford, and Freeman.

There is some pretty good analysis in the Big Ben spotlight thread that points to him being great value this year. Why people let him slide is a mystery I can live w/o knowing the answer to. Why did people go bananas over Reggie Bush and Jahvid Best? Sometimes it's easier to just not ask these questions.