Why is DWill not in the mix for the #1 pick? (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

Some of you saw Joe's update in the daily email but Pat Yasinkas wrote that DeAngelo will get the majority of the carries as JStew seems to be worse off than many thought with his achilles problem. DWill isn't going to get 100% of the touches, but its clear that if he has to carry it 275-325 times no problem.

Everyone is taking ADP and MJD in some form of 1/2 if you draft with a lot of FBG...sidenote:MJD is not a top2 pick in most of the local draught beer leagues...but if DWill was pretty much assured to not have to split as much time even though last year he did great with split time, but if it is the DWill show, why can't DeAngelo be taken #1 overall? Certainly room in the top 3-5 for him. Williams as late as these past few days has been dropping into the 2nd round time and time again.

The guy has the goods, far better skill set at this point than a lot of RBs being taken in the 5-12 range which is where he has been sliding. What other back do you want over DWill?

 

[Knobs]

From the thread title, I thought there was actual information in this thread.

 

[JMJ]

Some of you saw Joe's update in the daily email but Pat Yasinkas wrote that DeAngelo will get the majority of the carries as JStew seems to be worse off than many thought with his achilles problem. DWill isn't going to get 100% of the touches, OK we can kill that idea not that it really needed to be said but its clear that if he has to carry it 275-325 times no problem. Everyone is taking ADP and MJD in some form of 1/2 if you draft with a lot of FBG...sidenote:MJD is not a top2 pick in most of the local draught beer leagues...but if DWill was pretty much assured to not have to split as much time even though last year he did great with split time, but if it is the DWill show, why can't DeAngelo be taken #1 overall? Certainly room in the top 3-5 for him. Williams as late as these past few days has been dropping into the 2nd round time and time again. The guy has the goods, far better skill set at this point than a lot of RBs being taken in the 5-12 range which is where he has been sliding. What other back do you want over DWill?

I already thought the same thing when I heard the news. I have #1 overall pick in my league and have been going back and forth over AP and MJD. I will certainly add DWill to the decision now. I just haven't checked his schedule yet. AP has a very good schedule and MJD has the best or 2nd best schedule of any RB this year (Slaton arguable).I think it would be hard for DeAngelo's schedule to be easier than MJD's.

 

[LHUCKS]

From the thread title, I thought there was actual information in this thread.

 

[JMJ]

From the thread title, I thought there was actual information in this thread.

I replied to the thread but agree with this. Was expecting a coach quote or something.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

From the thread title, I thought there was actual information in this thread.

We all had some suspicions that DWill was set for a larger increase in touches with JStew on the mend but it seems clear the DeAngelo is going to be "the guy" come week 1...whether JStew gets back into the mix as the season unfolds is yet to be determined.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

From the thread title, I thought there was actual information in this thread.

It was the 1st story on Joe's daily email... Source: Pat Yasinskas - ESPN.comPat Yasinskas, of ESPN.com, reports Carolina Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams will receive the bulk of the carries this season, even if RB Jonathan Stewart (Achilles') is healthy for the regular season.[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]The Panthers are certainly concerned about the durability of Jonathan Stewart, and that's why they drafted Mike Goodson to give them more depth at the RB position. Stewart has a nose for the endzone, and should still get some short yardage and goalline work this year, while the rookie Goodson could most effectively be used as a receiver out of the backfield. Fantasy owners are extremely excited about the possibility of an increased workload, and it's amazing to think that we may not have seen the best from DeAngelo Williams. Guys, not everyone knows every one of these stories before they hit Joe's daily email...I admit that many times I ahve already heard the info and story before I get it in an email...but yesterday I had a life and wasn't stuck to the keyboard all day so it was a little bit of news to me or at least reinforced what I suspected. If DWill is going to approach 300 carries, how can you not take a look at him very early in the draft?Also, even though he has a tougher schedule I would counter that with the fact the Panthers are not overmatched all that much. They aren't the Cincinnati Bengals for god's sake...teams fear the Panthers as much as the Panthers might fear them. Good team vs Good team doesn't always mean a bad match up.

 

[shredhead]

I think what others are implying is that there is already a thread about DeAngelo with a link to Yasinka's quote. Many people have already read it and opened this thinking there was new information. No Biggie with me and I'll say again what I said in that thread. I picked DeAngelo 7th overall las Saturday, and I did it happily before Yasinka's article came out. I'm thrilled to death to have Williams as my #1 RB this season. I'm sad in the fact that it's going to be harder to get him in my 2 upcoming drafts.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I think what others are implying is that there is already a thread about DeAngelo with a link to Yasinka's quote. Many people have already read it and opened this thinking there was new information. No Biggie with me and I'll say again what I said in that thread. I picked DeAngelo 7th overall las Saturday, and I did it happily before Yasinka's article came out. I'm thrilled to death to have Williams as my #1 RB this season. I'm sad in the fact that it's going to be harder to get him in my 2 upcoming drafts.

My apologies to the SP

 

[Ministry of Pain]

An idea for the staff...when you send these emails out and you already have banter/threads on the topic, why not link to the discussion board so people can jump right in and post? Link to a thread directly from emails that link to the story you are sending...I think that would be a great idea.

 

[wadegarrett]

As a MJD & DWill owner in PPR league all I can say is...

 

[Knobs]

An idea for the staff...when you send these emails out and you already have banter/threads on the topic, why not link to the discussion board so people can jump right in and post? Link to a thread directly from emails that link to the story you are sending...I think that would be a great idea.

That's not a bad idea at all. And it would bring more people to the forums.No worries about you starting a duplicate, it happens.I'll also repeat what I said in the other thread...this doesn't change his value in the least. This isn't a quote from the coach - it's speculation by a writer, and I think most of us had already assumed DeAngelo would get most of the carries.

 

[shredhead]

An idea for the staff...when you send these emails out and you already have banter/threads on the topic, why not link to the discussion board so people can jump right in and post? Link to a thread directly from emails that link to the story you are sending...I think that would be a great idea.

Here you go, it fell to page 3. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=483332

No worries about you starting a duplicate, it happens.

Ditto!

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Isn't this pretty obvious already? Of course he will get the "majority of the carries". He did last year and they were very successful. This doesn't change the way I view him at all. Anyone that thought JStew would cut ANYMORE than he did last year into D Will's production is foolish. If it ain't broke you don't fix it folks.

 

[JMJ]

Isn't this pretty obvious already? Of course he will get the "majority of the carries". He did last year and they were very successful. This doesn't change the way I view him at all. Anyone that thought JStew would cut ANYMORE than he did last year into D Will's production is foolish. If it ain't broke you don't fix it folks.

Yeah, but DeAngelo really BLEW UP when Stewart went down. Before Stewart went down DeAngelo was doing good, not great. I think most people figured Stewart being back would knock DeAngelo back from great to really good. This news now makes that less likely.Capeesh?

 

[Ripleys]

As a MJD & DWill owner in PPR league all I can say is...

As an AP, MJD, and D-Will owner in a PPR dynasty league, all i can say is

 

[shredhead]

Isn't this pretty obvious already? Of course he will get the "majority of the carries". He did last year and they were very successful. This doesn't change the way I view him at all. Anyone that thought JStew would cut ANYMORE than he did last year into D Will's production is foolish. If it ain't broke you don't fix it folks.

Yeah, but DeAngelo really BLEW UP when Stewart went down. Before Stewart went down DeAngelo was doing good, not great. I think most people figured Stewart being back would knock DeAngelo back from great to really good. This news now makes that less likely.Capeesh?

Well savvy owners like me (joke) have DeAngelo and Jonathan on their roster. I'm ready to pick up Goodson if the news on Stewart gets any worse. I just hope I'm not chasing last years stats.

 

[Papa Schnay]

As a MJD & DWill owner in PPR league all I can say is...

As an AP, MJD, and D-Will owner in a PPR dynasty league, all i can say is

that puts my Dwill, Turner, and Grant combo to shame! wow

 

[wadegarrett]

As a MJD & DWill owner in PPR league all I can say is...

As an AP, MJD, and D-Will owner in a PPR dynasty league, all i can say is

you win

 

[BassNBrew]

Hey MOP...water is wet.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Isn't this pretty obvious already? Of course he will get the "majority of the carries". He did last year and they were very successful. This doesn't change the way I view him at all. Anyone that thought JStew would cut ANYMORE than he did last year into D Will's production is foolish. If it ain't broke you don't fix it folks.

Good point DW, but I want to share something that happened in one of my leagues yesterday for some perspective. I have the #3 pick and this a 2-3 man keeper league and I already own Chris Johnson and Michael Turner so I wanted to slide down to the end of round 1 and grab some combo of Moss/AJ, Moss/Calvin, AJ/Calvin...and the owner doesn't want to move up from that spot. I asked him why he wouldn't want to put himself in position to grab DWill and he said "That guy only gets 50% of the touches...he's a RBBC guy." I'm telling you that there are a lot of folks out there still under the bizarre impression that DWill is some kind of fluke.

 

[Johnny Ice]

To me it's obvious DeAngelo now runs like he believes he is a special NFL RB and is confident in everything he does. He trust his vision, instinct, and everything in front of him. He was a tremendous RB in college and now he's proved to himself he's a superstar on this level as well. I feel he will finish as a Top 3 back.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Hey MOP...water is wet.

Summer's are hot.

 

[shredhead]

Hey MOP...water is wet.

Summer's are hot.

Not in Antarctica.

 

[a_troll00]

I think what others are implying is that there is already a thread about DeAngelo with a link to Yasinka's quote. Many people have already read it and opened this thinking there was new information. No Biggie with me and I'll say again what I said in that thread. I picked DeAngelo 7th overall las Saturday, and I did it happily before Yasinka's article came out. I'm thrilled to death to have Williams as my #1 RB this season. I'm sad in the fact that it's going to be harder to get him in my 2 upcoming drafts.

My apologies to the SP

No need to apologize, you're just being harassed by a bunch of bitter people who drafted LT or Gore ahead of DWill. DWill owners rejoice, for thy championship is nigh!!!!

 

[Gopher State]

Reasons why Dwill is not the number 1 pick

Schedule--brutal to say the least

Play calling: Jake D is a year+ removed from his injury, I see more passing as 1. Jake is healthy, 2. schedule will have cats behind in more games then last year

Back up RB's-- Stewart is good, but is he healthy? If so he will steal carries. The wild card is Goodson, the kid has been lights out in training camp, a L. Washington type RB, he be stealing carries from Dwill on a regular schedule.

I think anyone who is expecting numbers equal to or better then last year from Dwill will be disappointed.

 

[David Yudkin]

Just like in the other thread . . .

THERE IS NO NEWS HERE!!!! In fact, there is WORSE than no news here, there is misperception here. One writer provided speculation on what ***SHOULD*** happen IN HIS OPINION, and suddenly Williams will become Michael Turner workload wise.

Nothing has changed AT ALL in Carolina, the team has not offered up anything to suggest anything different than what we already knew, and yet the web gets plastered with D-Will having some uber workload.

IMO, people should have the same opinion of Williams as they did two days ago, as nothing has changed.

 

[Lehigh98]

Just like in the other thread . . .THERE IS NO NEWS HERE!!!! In fact, there is WORSE than no news here, there is misperception here. One writer provided speculation on what ***SHOULD*** happen IN HIS OPINION, and suddenly Williams will become Michael Turner workload wise.Nothing has changed AT ALL in Carolina, the team has not offered up anything to suggest anything different than what we already knew, and yet the web gets plastered with D-Will having some uber workload.IMO, people should have the same opinion of Williams as they did two days ago, as nothing has changed.

Wish you would have told me that before I went and traded ADP and MJD for him.

 

[karmarooster]

As a MJD & DWill owner in PPR league all I can say is...

As an AP, MJD, and D-Will owner in a PPR dynasty league, all i can say is

you win

oh yeah here's my dynasty team:brady, breesap, mjd, dwill, sjaxfitz, moss, AJ, calvinwitten, gatesmine's bigger than yours!

 

[JimmyD]

Hey MOP...water is wet.

Summer's are hot.

Not in Antarctica.

In that instance I'd venture to say that water wouldn't be wet either....

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Reasons why Dwill is not the number 1 pickSchedule--brutal to say the leastPlay calling: Jake D is a year+ removed from his injury, I see more passing as 1. Jake is healthy, 2. schedule will have cats behind in more games then last yearBack up RB's-- Stewart is good, but is he healthy? If so he will steal carries. The wild card is Goodson, the kid has been lights out in training camp, a L. Washington type RB, he be stealing carries from Dwill on a regular schedule.I think anyone who is expecting numbers equal to or better then last year from Dwill will be disappointed.

Schedule is brutal? See Miami if you want a brutal schedule. They have 4 games against NO and TB, it can't be that hard. And Carolina is much better equipped to play tough teams. It's not always a bad match up just because they have to play some tougher teams. More passing would only help DWill and not crowd the box with 8 guys all the time.Stewart had almost 200 carries last year and DWill still managed to be the #1 RB in FF so I am not as worried about JStew stealing carries as some are.

 

[steelcityman]

I hope he slides to me at 8 on Saturday. There are 2 guys ahead of me that love QBs, and Brady and Brees might get taken PDQ.

So IMO, that only leave one other RB to be taken(the top 4 + x + 2QB = I am up).

I could take LT, Slaton, DWill, S Jax, or any WR.

I cant make up my mind.

 

[simey]

Isn't this pretty obvious already? Of course he will get the "majority of the carries". He did last year and they were very successful. This doesn't change the way I view him at all. Anyone that thought JStew would cut ANYMORE than he did last year into D Will's production is foolish. If it ain't broke you don't fix it folks.

Yeah, but DeAngelo really BLEW UP when Stewart went down. Before Stewart went down DeAngelo was doing good, not great. I think most people figured Stewart being back would knock DeAngelo back from great to really good. This news now makes that less likely.Capeesh?

When did Stewart go down? He played in every game last season. People say DeAngelo was on fire or "blew up" during the last 8 weeks. Stewart played in all of those games as well. Here are Stewarts attempts and yards over the last 8 games...game 9 - 7 carries 21 yardsgame 10 - 15 carries 120 yards 1 TDgame 11 - 5 carries 15 yardsgame 12 - 4 carries 56 yardsgame 13 - 15 carries 115 yards 2 TDgame 14 - 16 carries 52 yards 1 TDgame 15 - 9 carries 29 yards 2 rec 28 yardsgame 16 - 17 carries 56 yards 1 TD

 

[Sweet Love]

Reasons why Dwill is not the number 1 pickSchedule--brutal to say the leastPlay calling: Jake D is a year+ removed from his injury, I see more passing as 1. Jake is healthy, 2. schedule will have cats behind in more games then last yearBack up RB's-- Stewart is good, but is he healthy? If so he will steal carries. The wild card is Goodson, the kid has been lights out in training camp, a L. Washington type RB, he be stealing carries from Dwill on a regular schedule.I think anyone who is expecting numbers equal to or better then last year from Dwill will be disappointed.

Schedule is brutal? See Miami if you want a brutal schedule. They have 4 games against NO and TB, it can't be that hard. And Carolina is much better equipped to play tough teams. It's not always a bad match up just because they have to play some tougher teams. More passing would only help DWill and not crowd the box with 8 guys all the time.Stewart had almost 200 carries last year and DWill still managed to be the #1 RB in FF so I am not as worried about JStew stealing carries as some are.

MOP, I am with you on this one. The tradionally hard NFC South has gotten a tad softer this year with Tampa AND Carolina not looking as stellar as usual. Tampa is in a transition and they will get exposed at times with the lack of leadership from Brooks and Kiffin. The Carolina D is having issues at DT, so teams will be able to run better on them (we saw that last year with the absence of Jenkins). A slightly (and I stress slightly) worse off D in Carolina would only mean Fox has to stick with DWill more as he will worry about winning the games versus keeping DWill fresh. If the Carolina D implodes, THEN I could see a move to more of a passing offense. But the reality is, we like Delhomme here, we just don't trust him to win games...games in Carolina are won on the ground.

 

[ebcpastor2004]

As a MJD & DWill owner in PPR league all I can say is...

amen

 

[ExtraPoint]

Even if Foster were still on the team instead of Stewart, DWill shouldnt be the number one back on your draft sheet. He's still playing for the same coaching staff. They dont care to throw much to the RBs. They dont depend on one RB. They like to use a large bruising back in many situations. I've been one of DWill's biggest supporters on these boards the past few years when he was being forgotten. I got ridiculed for continueing to say that DWill had superstud fantasy potential even after they drafted Stewart. Now I'll remind you that what held him back for most of his career is still there. So dont get carried away, he comes with a lot of risk.

 

[Gr00vus]

ESPN reporting he's sitting out practice with a sore knee today. He was riding a stationary bike on the side - seems to be no big deal.

 

[switz]

The guy has the goods, far better skill set at this point than a lot of RBs being taken in the 5-12 range which is where he has been sliding. What other back do you want over DWill?

I think some people fear that Stewart will cut into his touches, but I don't see Stewart taking many more carries than he did last year. Here's my thing.. 1) I'm always skeptical of guys who sat on the bench for years, then come along and have a great season... in many cases they flop the next. 2) Do you really expect DA to score 20 TDs again? If he scores 1 less TD, then Turner is the #1 RB from last season, not Williams.3) Williams YPC was 5.5, higher than ever before in his career, I doubt it stays that high.4) Steve Smith was injured all year long, and scored the fewest TDs since he missed the season in '04. That won't happen again IMO.All of those points make me think Williams slides quite a bit...I'd guess 275/1402/11TDs rushing 22/150/1TD receivingThat's 1552 yards, 13 TDs total... #5 or #6 RB

 

[switz]

As a MJD & DWill owner in PPR league all I can say is...

amen

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Isn't this pretty obvious already? Of course he will get the "majority of the carries". He did last year and they were very successful. This doesn't change the way I view him at all. Anyone that thought JStew would cut ANYMORE than he did last year into D Will's production is foolish. If it ain't broke you don't fix it folks.

they were working stewart into the mix. Then he got dinged a bit, and deangelo went off. But this was not an safe assumption to the degree that it is today.

 

[simey]

4) Steve Smith was injured all year long, and scored the fewest TDs since he missed the season in '04. That won't happen again IMO.

What was this injury you speak of?

 

[simey]

1) I'm always skeptical of guys who sat on the bench for years, then come along and have a great season... in many cases they flop the next.

Years? DeAngelo was a backup for his first two seasons, and then became the starter in his 3rd year. That's not a long period of time to learn and perfect your skills and mature, and then move into the lead role. It's best he didn't have more carries in his first two years behind what was a horrible OL. The offense was getting killed out there during those two years.

 

[switz]

4) Steve Smith was injured all year long, and scored the fewest TDs since he missed the season in '04. That won't happen again IMO.

What was this injury you speak of?

From what I understand he had an shoulder that bothered him all year long. It didn't cause him to miss any games, but I figure it affected his play. Maybe not, was that two years ago?

 

[rrhartjr]

4) Steve Smith was injured all year long, and scored the fewest TDs since he missed the season in \'04. That won\'t happen again IMO.

What was this injury you speak of?

Brain damage. But he\'s been affected all his career.imo, Stewarts injury doesn\'t really change the forecast for DeAngelo. He\'s not going to end up a 350 carry guy if Stewart goes down. He\'ll just cede to Goodson instead.However, another 275 carry year at 4.5 ypc is almost 1300 yards. (His season average last year was 5.5 ypc, but we\'re going conservative here)M Turner had 17 touchdowns on 376 carries, a rate of 0.045 per carry. Using this rate on DeAngelo\'s 275 carries, you get 12 TDs. (Again, the point here is to be conservative on the td/carry mark)1300yd/12tds as a conservative estimate is a pretty good place to be.

1) I\'m always skeptical of guys who sat on the bench for years, then come along and have a great season... in many cases they flop the next.

This seems like a ridiculous thing to say. This is pretty much the most common career path for RBs. Name a few who hit it out of the park in their first season and you\'ll have the exceptions, not the rule.Go through the list of top RBs. Turner had to sit on the bench in SD, MJD had to get Fred Taylor out of town, Brandon Jacobs had to make Tiki retire, etc.

 

[switz]

4) Steve Smith was injured all year long, and scored the fewest TDs since he missed the season in '04. That won't happen again IMO.

What was this injury you speak of?

Brain damage. But he's been affected all his career.imo, Stewarts injury doesn't really change the forecast for DeAngelo. He's not going to end up a 350 carry guy if Stewart goes down. He'll just cede to Goodson instead.

However, another 275 carry year at 4.5 ypc is almost 1300 yards. (His season average last year was 5.5 ypc, but we're going conservative here)

M Turner had 17 touchdowns on 376 carries, a rate of 0.045 per carry. Using this rate on DeAngelo's 275 carries, you get 12 TDs. (Again, the point here is to be conservative on the td/carry mark)

1300yd/12tds as a conservative estimate is a pretty good place to be.

Why would you do that? ATL and CAR aren't running the same offenses, don't have the same coaches, don't use the same plays in the RZ... that makes no sense. Seriously.

 

[Wildcat]

I take issue with these points:

1) I'm always skeptical of guys who sat on the bench for years, then come along and have a great season... in many cases they flop the next.

He was a rookie in 2006 and his yards, average per carry and carries have increased each year. He has hardly been "on the bench for years". Not to mention the fact that Turner was on the bench for years too.

2) Do you really expect DA to score 20 TDs again? If he scores 1 less TD, then Turner is the #1 RB from last season, not Williams.

Why is it so hard to imagine that he could score 20 TDs again, especially if Stewart is less of a factor? And the Turner thing is a pointless stat. Why does that matter? Fact is, he scored that TD. Had Turner scored one less TD, he would be further behind DWill. I don't see the point you are trying to make there.

3) Williams YPC was 5.5, higher than ever before in his career, I doubt it stays that high.

Again, his "career" has consisted of three whole years. In 2007, his average was 5 yards a carry which is just below his 2008 number of 5.5.

4) Steve Smith was injured all year long, and scored the fewest TDs since he missed the season in '04. That won't happen again IMO.

"all year long"?? I don't think this is accurate. I looked at several of the injury reports from last year and didn't see his name listed.

 

[jurb26]

I don't know why Williams is not in the conversation for the #1 overall player more. I have MJD ranked #1 anyway so It's not like I'm really arguing for it. However, I do find it odd that basically nobody is. Honestly I think this is one of the more wide open years for who is atop the RB rankings. I find it pretty laughable that almost all the world has convinced themselves that Peterson is the guy and it's no contest. I think good arguments can be made for any of: Peterson, MJD, Williams, Forte and Turner. Yet somehow Peterson is the unanimous pick?

With Stewart's injury still lingering around with no real closure I think Williams will begin to slide up drafts.

 

[switz]

He was a rookie in 2006 and his yards, average per carry and carries have increased each year. He has hardly been "on the bench for years". Not to mention the fact that Turner was on the bench for years too.

Turner was on the nench behind one of the best RBs to ever play the game, DeAngelo was not. I'm pretty sure you can see the difference.

Why is it so hard to imagine that he could score 20 TDs again, especially if Stewart is less of a factor? And the Turner thing is a pointless stat. Why does that matter? Fact is, he scored that TD. Had Turner scored one less TD, he would be further behind DWill. I don't see the point you are trying to make there.

My point was, one play could make the difference between him being #1 last year and not. And frankly, the likelihood of someone repeating a 20TD season is very small, regardless of who that player is.

Again, his "career" has consisted of three whole years. In 2007, his average was 5 yards a carry which is just below his 2008 number of 5.5.

And my projection for him had him at 5.1 YPC, and it still dropped his production significantly. There's nowhere to go but down for DA when it comes to YPC, which impacts his overall production negatively unless his attempts increase significantly, which they won't.

4) Steve Smith was injured all year long, and scored the fewest TDs since he missed the season in '04. That won't happen again IMO.

"all year long"?? I don't think this is accurate. I looked at several of the injury reports from last year and didn't see his name listed.

I may be wrong, as I posted earlier. Not being on the injury report though, doesn't mean a players not injured. IIRC Smith said he was going to need shoulder surgery this offseason, since it bothered him all year long. He didn't have it though. Regardless, do you really think Smith's TDs will stay at only 6? You don't see him improving, but you do think DA improves? It's just not reasonable.

 

[SSOG]

The guy has the goods, far better skill set at this point than a lot of RBs being taken in the 5-12 range which is where he has been sliding. What other back do you want over DWill?

I think some people fear that Stewart will cut into his touches, but I don't see Stewart taking many more carries than he did last year. Here's my thing.. 1) I'm always skeptical of guys who sat on the bench for years, then come along and have a great season... in many cases they flop the next. 2) Do you really expect DA to score 20 TDs again? If he scores 1 less TD, then Turner is the #1 RB from last season, not Williams.3) Williams YPC was 5.5, higher than ever before in his career, I doubt it stays that high.4) Steve Smith was injured all year long, and scored the fewest TDs since he missed the season in '04. That won't happen again IMO.All of those points make me think Williams slides quite a bit...I'd guess 275/1402/11TDs rushing 22/150/1TD receivingThat's 1552 yards, 13 TDs total... #5 or #6 RB

You forgot my favorite...5) DeAngelo's 284 points might have been #1 last year, but in a typical fantasy season for RBs, they only would have been good enough for a 5th place finish. DeAngelo could perfectly duplicate his stats from last year and still not finish this season as a top-3 fantasy RB if the rest of the league returns to form.In the interest of full disclosure, I think DeAngelo is a very safe pick and a very talented back, but I can understand ranking him anywhere from RB3 to RB10. SJax, Tomlinson, Westbrook, Portis, and Gore have all had better seasons in the past than DeAngelo had last year, Forte and Turner were essentially RB1b and 1c last year, Peterson and MJD have been discussed to death, and Chris Johnson is a very special talent- I don't think it's at all unreasonable to have any of those RBs ranked higher than Williams. I don't agree with this whole "DeAngelo was a stud the likes of which we've never seen before and is wildly underrated" crowd. FBGs has him tied with SJax as the consensus RB5, with rankings ranging from 3rd to 12th. That seems perfectly reasonable and accurate to me.

 

[rrhartjr]

4) Steve Smith was injured all year long, and scored the fewest TDs since he missed the season in '04. That won't happen again IMO.

What was this injury you speak of?

Brain damage. But he's been affected all his career.imo, Stewarts injury doesn't really change the forecast for DeAngelo. He's not going to end up a 350 carry guy if Stewart goes down. He'll just cede to Goodson instead.

However, another 275 carry year at 4.5 ypc is almost 1300 yards. (His season average last year was 5.5 ypc, but we're going conservative here)

M Turner had 17 touchdowns on 376 carries, a rate of 0.045 per carry. Using this rate on DeAngelo's 275 carries, you get 12 TDs. (Again, the point here is to be conservative on the td/carry mark)

1300yd/12tds as a conservative estimate is a pretty good place to be.

Why would you do that? ATL and CAR aren't running the same offenses, don't have the same coaches, don't use the same plays in the RZ... that makes no sense. Seriously.

Because DeAngelo had a very high TD/carry ratio, something that is sure to regress. Turner had a very average TD/carry ratio, so it's more useful for extrapolation than DeAngelo's.