Why is Rivers projected so low? (1 Viewer)

[Outnumbered]

Did I miss something? Rivers...rated that low?!

I guess they see LT and Sproles running all over Oakland? But even so . . . #19?!! I mean they have Flacco, Orton, even Quinn rated ahead of him!!! Yes, all favorable matchups (Quinn's notwithstanding), but I'm just not seeing it. Seems almost irresponsible of a "pay" site...???

 

[Cookiemonster]

I'm rolling Rivers over Palmer after watching Brees dismantle the Raiders a couple weeks ago. No pass rush, poor tackling and poor effort. Sure, LT is gonna brutalize 'em, but he could have a recieving TD, a rushing TD and another TD while Rivers also throws for 2 and 250.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Did I miss something? Rivers...rated that low?!

I guess they see LT and Sproles running all over Oakland? But even so . . . #19?!! I mean they have Flacco, Orton, even Quinn rated ahead of him!!! Yes, all favorable matchups (Quinn's notwithstanding), but I'm just not seeing it. Seems almost irresponsible of a "pay" site...???

Outnumbered,You should take a moment and look up Rivers' historical numbers against Oakland.

Rivers vs. Oak

I rememberl that 8 of 11 night against them where the Chargers dominated and he didn't need to do a thing.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Bump - any Rivers owners benching him this week based on his history against the Raiders?

 

[Sweetness_34]

I am starting Hasselbeck over Rivers...

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

FWIW, here are the total points each team is expected to score based on the lines at betonline.com.

Saints - 31.25

Patriots - 28.75

Colts - 26

Cardinals - 26

Chargers - 26

Packers - 25.5

Ravens - 24.5

Texans - 24.25

Seahawks - 24

Falcons - 23.75

Bengals - 23.5

Eagles - 23

Cowboys - 22.25

Vikings - 21.75

Giants - 21.75

Bears - 21

Panthers - 20.5

Jets - 20.25

49ers - 20

Dolphins - 19.75

Broncos - 19

Jaguars - 19

Browns - 18.25

Bills - 18.25

Lions - 17.75

Raiders - 17

Bucs - 16.75

Rams - 16.5

Redskins - 15.25

Chiefs - 11.5

I always like fantasy QBs on teams expected to score a lot of points in a given week. The danger with Rivers is that if the running game is working and the Chargers get a lead, they won't pass much. On the other hand, I do expect that the Chargers will have to pass effectively in order to get a lead. So I'm not benching Rivers in any leagues.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

This thread got me interested in the relationship between margin of win (or loss) and run-pass ratio.

I looked at the 16 regular season games played by the Panthers last season.

Below, in the left column, is the margin of victory. (Negative numbers are losses. The zero was the overtime loss against the Giants. I figured the tie at the end of regulation was more probative than the final score in this case.) In the right column is the percentage of offensive plays by the Panthers that were runs.

-24 = 0.338983051

-17 = 0.426229508

-10 = 0.408163265

0 = 0.648148148

2 = 0.414285714

2 = 0.677419355

3 = 0.596153846

4 = 0.50877193

4 = 0.613636364

9 = 0.62745098

11 = 0.509090909

15 = 0.532258065

15 = 0.649122807

20 = 0.535714286

23 = 0.627118644

34 = 0.685714286

There's a pretty clear relationship. On average, for each additional point that the Panthers won by, their run percentage went up by about a half a percent.

If you knew they were going to lose by 9, you'd expect them to run about 47.5% of the time. If you knew they were going to win by 9, you'd expect them to run about 56.7% of the time.

That's a pretty big difference.

So just based on the Panthers' 2008 season, it does look like you may want to downgrade the QB for fantasy purposes if his team is heavily favored.

(The Chargers are favored by 9 over the Raiders.)

I'm going to do the same for some other teams . . .

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

This thread got me interested in the relationship between margin of win (or loss) and run-pass ratio.I looked at the 16 regular season games played by the Panthers last season.Below, in the left column, is the margin of victory. (Negative numbers are losses. The zero was the overtime loss against the Giants. I figured the tie at the end of regulation was more probative than the final score in this case.) In the right column is the percentage of offensive plays by the Panthers that were runs.-24 = 0.338983051-17 = 0.426229508-10 = 0.4081632650 = 0.6481481482 = 0.4142857142 = 0.6774193553 = 0.5961538464 = 0.508771934 = 0.6136363649 = 0.6274509811 = 0.50909090915 = 0.53225806515 = 0.64912280720 = 0.53571428623 = 0.62711864434 = 0.685714286There's a pretty clear relationship. On average, for each additional point that the Panthers won by, their run percentage went up by about a half a percent.If you knew they were going to lose by 9, you'd expect them to run about 47.5% of the time. If you knew they were going to win by 9, you'd expect them to run about 56.7% of the time.That's a pretty big difference.So just based on the Panthers' 2008 season, it does look like you may want to downgrade the QB for fantasy purposes if his team is heavily favored.(The Chargers are favored by 9 over the Raiders.)I'm going to do the same for some other teams . . .

Cool analysis, but it would be hard to translate that to other teams. I think in the Panthers case last year, Williams/Stewart>>>>>Delhomme. I can't imagine this relationship applying to, say, the 2008 Patriots

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

If you can RUN the ball INTO the endzone, WHY PASS?

There's your answer.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Cool analysis, but it would be hard to translate that to other teams. I think in the Panthers case last year, Williams/Stewart>>>>>Delhomme. I can't imagine this relationship applying to, say, the 2008 Patriots

The Panthers ran the ball 55% of the time last year, among the highest in the NFL. (Interestingly, the analysis in my last post suggests that their base run percentage would be about 52% in neutral match-ups. They ran more than that because they were 12-4.)Each team, obviously, will have its own base run percentage. The Panthers' was much higher than the Saints', Cardinals', Colts', and so on -- but I suspect that those teams also ran more than their base rate when they were winning and less than their base rate when they were losing.I'm going to do the Chargers next . . .

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

The pattern is a bit more pronounced with the 2008 Chargers:

-9 = 0.369565217

-7 = 0.404255319

-6 = 0.387755102

-5 = 0.35483871

-3 = 0.446428571

-2 = 0.5

-1 = 0.352941176

-1 = 0.458333333

1 = 0.419354839

1 = 0.28358209

10 = 0.545454545

17 = 0.456140351

19 = 0.583333333

20 = 0.509090909

27 = 0.676470588

31 = 0.677419355

For every extra point that the Chargers won by, their run percentage went up by about three quarters of a percentage point.

If you knew they were going to lose by 9, you'd expect them to run about 35.2% of the time. If you knew they were going to win by 9, you'd expect them to run about 48.5% of the time.

(The Chargers ran the ball almost 47% of the time last season, but their base rate in a neutral match-up appears to be about 42%. They ran the ball more than that because, even though they were 8-8, they outscored their opponents 439 to 347.)

So again, it looks like the QB might get a fantasy downgrade if his team is heavily favored.

 

[deliverator]

Getting bogged down in stats is a mistake. Rivers is a gunslinger, he's got a bunch of great targets, and Asomugha is wearing a club on his hand. Trust your studs.

 

[spider321]

I don't know why this thread is so long or why people are posting numbers, but the answer to your question is....

Nnamdi Asomugha.

You're Welcome.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

That's not the only variable.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

I am starting Hasselbeck over Rivers...

I have th same QB's and I just can bring myself to bench Rivers. Last year they seemed to be more a team in transition from the run to the pass, this year I expect them to open it up and pass first more often. I can't see how Oakland generates any pass rush and how they can match up with all of SD's weapons. I think both QB's will have good/great games (250-275 & 2-3 tds) I'm not worried about either D they're facing.

 

[spider321]

That's not the only variable.

Sorry. I wasn't taking the theory of relativity, quantumphysics, Akum's Razor, and the Pythagorian theorem into account.

 

[Shaun]

Did I miss something? Rivers...rated that low?!I guess they see LT and Sproles running all over Oakland? But even so . . . #19?!! I mean they have Flacco, Orton, even Quinn rated ahead of him!!! Yes, all favorable matchups (Quinn's notwithstanding), but I'm just not seeing it. Seems almost irresponsible of a "pay" site...???

Would FBG be willing to move into the bookie business on the side? I'll take the over on that #19, in fact I expect last year's league leader in QB rating to be a top 10 QB in week 1...

 

[UnknownCoach]

Oakland has one of the best secondaries in the league. That being said, Gates usually creates a matchup problem for Oakland. Sometimes they have had to put a CB on Gates which of course means someone else is covering the WR. Regardless this is a division game in Oakland and its going to be a battle. The RBs and TEs for both teams are good options but I wont predict big games from anyone else.

 

[Sweet Love]

I don't know why this thread is so long or why people are posting numbers, but the answer to your question is....

Nnamdi Asomugha.

You're Welcome.

Is that the same Asomugha that Vince Jackson and Rivers smoked last year for 130+ yards, or a different one?

 

[spider321]

I don't know why this thread is so long or why people are posting numbers, but the answer to your question is....

Nnamdi Asomugha.

You're Welcome.

Is that the same Asomugha that Vince Jackson and Rivers smoked last year for 130+ yards, or a different one?

Wow! I did not realize that. It was 148 yards!

You won't find a bigger Rivers fan than me, but I still doubt that lightning will strike twice on Asomugha.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

I don't know why this thread is so long or why people are posting numbers, but the answer to your question is....

Nnamdi Asomugha.

You're Welcome.

Is that the same Asomugha that Vince Jackson and Rivers smoked last year for 130+ yards, or a different one?

Wow! I did not realize that. It was 148 yards!

You won't find a bigger Rivers fan than me, but I still doubt that lightning will strike twice on Asomugha.

He can't be everywhere. There will be alot of single coverage for Phillips to expose and he has a way of taking advantage in these situations.

 

[spider321]

^ There is one "L" and no "S" in Philip Rivers' first name.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I don't know why this thread is so long or why people are posting numbers, but the answer to your question is....

Nnamdi Asomugha.

You're Welcome.

Nnamdi Awesome One, correctedYou're Welcome

 

[medman]

So again, it looks like the QB might get a fantasy downgrade if his team is heavily favored.

Awesome look at the question with the statistics and trends! I hope you'll publish all the results in an article for reference. I'll take the statistics and trend anaylses over "I have a gut feeling" stuff. Thanks again!

 

[Novice2]

Bump - any Rivers owners benching him this week based on his history against the Raiders?

Not here

 

[bonesman]

Did I miss something? Rivers...rated that low?!

I guess they see LT and Sproles running all over Oakland? But even so . . . #19?!! I mean they have Flacco, Orton, even Quinn rated ahead of him!!! Yes, all favorable matchups (Quinn's notwithstanding), but I'm just not seeing it. Seems almost irresponsible of a "pay" site...???

Not really LT2 is barely in the top 20 for the PPR rankings and only 12th in standard.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

Did I miss something? Rivers...rated that low?!I guess they see LT and Sproles running all over Oakland? But even so . . . #19?!! I mean they have Flacco, Orton, even Quinn rated ahead of him!!! Yes, all favorable matchups (Quinn's notwithstanding), but I'm just not seeing it. Seems almost irresponsible of a "pay" site...???

I have all of those qb's except Quinn in my important league and and I am starting Rivers. I considered Flacco for about 10 seconds and then remembered my rule to never sit my stars.

 

[zoobird]

Since we don't know ahead of time what the margin of victory would be, what would be really useful is to know the how the pass/run splits are affected by the point spread.

 

[Billy1x]

Rankings are based on projected scores. Score differences may be only 1 pt between 10 different QBs. You need to look at the projection breakdown and then make a YOUR OWN gut call.

 

[cstu]

Bump - any Rivers owners benching him this week based on his history against the Raiders?

Benched him for Roethlisberger this week. Rivers should do alright but I thought Ben had a better matchup.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I am starting Hasselbeck over Rivers...

I have th same QB's and I just can bring myself to bench Rivers. Last year they seemed to be more a team in transition from the run to the pass, this year I expect them to open it up and pass first more often. I can't see how Oakland generates any pass rush and how they can match up with all of SD's weapons. I think both QB's will have good/great games (250-275 & 2-3 tds) I'm not worried about either D they're facing.

Gates and LT2 might make me wrong here, but I'd start Hass over Rivers in Week 1. Just my opinion.The Chargers can and should win the game on the ground. Seattle has no run game to speak of and the Rams are not solid at all on defense - so I'll take Nate Burleson, TJ Housh and John Carlson to move the ball and get Hass 200+ easy.I'd go further to say that I think the pure yardage for Hass will be higher than Rivers. TDs are a different variable and harder to predict, but I'm still leaning Hass this week.

 

[greenheads]

Several reasons.

Many people don't like River's attitude and his lack of class he has displayed in the past. Yelling at crowds and so forth. Some just want to believe he is an ave qb that got lucky b/c LT had a poor year and SD had to throw more. Face it guy's a stud whether you like him or not. This is partly the reason he is undervalued.

Many also over-evaluate a player's past success or lack of it against a particular team. Is it really relevant today what player A did against team B three years ago? Probably diff players, coaches, game plans than back then and all of the players if still there are older.

Rivers was the #2 qb in my league's scoring last year, he's tough, doesn't miss games, great completion % and qb rating, he's in his prime and has some of the best passing options in the NFL. Don't overthink this stuff. You can't always predict football success by some matematical formula.

For some players, football predictors just consistently undervalue or overvalue certain players. Many websites ranked Rivers 15th or so last year preseason. Ranked Garrard around 10th. I believe Rivers will continue to be undervalued and Garrard will continue to be overvalued. Until when and if Rivers wins a SB.

Rivers may have a down game vs. Oakland this week. But to believe its b/c the Raiders always have his number doesn't make much sense. Always play your studs.

 

[ufshowboat]

Bump - any Rivers owners benching him this week based on his history against the Raiders?

Benched him for Roethlisberger this week. Rivers should do alright but I thought Ben had a better matchup.

I did the same. The Oak matchup has a lack of upside for Rivers.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Since we don't know ahead of time what the margin of victory would be, what would be really useful is to know the how the pass/run splits are affected by the point spread.

On average, teams favored to win by 7 really do win by 7. Sometimes they lose by 7 or win by 14, etc., but on average the spreads accurately forecast the margin of victory -- i.e., when the spread is off, it is equally likely to be off in either direction. The spread is roughly the expected margin of victory.So if the spread is -9, it makes sense to project the game as if the margin of victory will be +9. So you look at what generally happens when the margin of victory is +9, and you see that the winning teams tend to run more than normal . . .

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Several reasons.Many people don't like River's attitude and his lack of class he has displayed in the past. Yelling at crowds and so forth. Some just want to believe he is an ave qb that got lucky b/c LT had a poor year and SD had to throw more. Face it guy's a stud whether you like him or not. This is partly the reason he is undervalued.

I can guarantee you that this factor did not enter into Dodds' thinking in the week one projections/cheatsheets.

 

[Gbagzz]

Several reasons.Many people don't like River's attitude and his lack of class he has displayed in the past. Yelling at crowds and so forth. Some just want to believe he is an ave qb that got lucky b/c LT had a poor year and SD had to throw more. Face it guy's a stud whether you like him or not. This is partly the reason he is undervalued.Many also over-evaluate a player's past success or lack of it against a particular team. Is it really relevant today what player A did against team B three years ago? Probably diff players, coaches, game plans than back then and all of the players if still there are older.Rivers was the #2 qb in my league's scoring last year, he's tough, doesn't miss games, great completion % and qb rating, he's in his prime and has some of the best passing options in the NFL. Don't overthink this stuff. You can't always predict football success by some matematical formula.For some players, football predictors just consistently undervalue or overvalue certain players. Many websites ranked Rivers 15th or so last year preseason. Ranked Garrard around 10th. I believe Rivers will continue to be undervalued and Garrard will continue to be overvalued. Until when and if Rivers wins a SB. Rivers may have a down game vs. Oakland this week. But to believe its b/c the Raiders always have his number doesn't make much sense. Always play your studs.

I completely agree. The amount of statistical analysis I see in this forum is mind numbing. To your points I'll add...Healthy GatesJackson emergingNew passing plays to incorporate SprolesChip on his shoulder for being the only QB out of the 3 top ones drafted w/him to not win a SB... Ben 2 / Eli 1One of the best statistical seasons last year and did not make the pro bowl