Why is Russell Wilson ranked so high in the Top 200 PPR at #5? (1 Viewer)

[Harvoolio]

Most Rest-Of-The-Season Rankings have him between #10 and #15 due to actual YTD (year-to-date) production (he is ranked #15 in QB total points in my league), conservative offense (with Wilson ranking towards the bottom in passes thrown per game) and medium difficulty strength of schedule (http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/strength-of-schedule.php).

It would be great to hear Dodd's analysis of why he is ranked so high.

Note: If this should be in another forum, please let me know as I do not post much. I also did a search prior to posting to see if this was asked and addressed elsewhere.

Thank you.

 

[Gottabesweet]

QBs 5 to 15 are bunched with my settings. Thought the same as well though. Ryan shows more points than whose ahead of him Stafford.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Dodds is correct.

I would imagine the return of Harvin has something to do with it as well along with the fact that they have a great schedule the rest of the way out.

 

[CariocaSean]

Dodds is correct.

I would imagine the return of Harvin has something to do with it as well along with the fact that they have a great schedule the rest of the way out.

And that Wilson has not been shy about taking off and running often.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Dodds is correct.

I would imagine the return of Harvin has something to do with it as well along with the fact that they have a great schedule the rest of the way out.

And that Wilson has not been shy about taking off and running often.

Maybe this could be unpacked little bit?

I'm a fan of Wilson's, loved what he did end of last year, that was predicted too in some quarters. But this year there's nothing to be said about freeing up the offense or allowing Wilson to do more, etc. It seems to me they are devoted to the run and the defense keeps teams down and Carroll let's the defense win it. Why or how does this change?

About Harvin, it's not really clear when he comes back or when he gets full snaps.

The main thing I could see is passing TDs maybe go up with Harvin in there.

That easy schedule cuts both ways. Poor teams are the kind the defense beats up on, they run on them, get a DST score, and then they shut it down. Wilson has 1 TD or less in like 4 of 6 games.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Dodds is correct.

I would imagine the return of Harvin has something to do with it as well along with the fact that they have a great schedule the rest of the way out.

And that Wilson has not been shy about taking off and running often.

Maybe this could be unpacked little bit?

I'm a fan of Wilson's, loved what he did end of last year, that was predicted too in some quarters. But this year there's nothing to be said about freeing up the offense or allowing Wilson to do more, etc. It seems to me they are devoted to the run and the defense keeps teams down and Carroll let's the defense win it. Why or how does this change?

About Harvin, it's not really clear when he comes back or when he gets full snaps.

The main thing I could see is passing TDs maybe go up with Harvin in there.

That easy schedule cuts both ways. Poor teams are the kind the defense beats up on, they run on them, get a DST score, and then they shut it down. Wilson has 1 TD or less in like 4 of 6 games.

You will learn not to doubt.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Don't get all the love for him. Finished ranked 16th last year and is sitting 16th again. Mid-tier guy that is no better than someone like Dalton or Cutler. His running ability doesn't offset his mediocre passing.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Dodds is correct.

I would imagine the return of Harvin has something to do with it as well along with the fact that they have a great schedule the rest of the way out.

And that Wilson has not been shy about taking off and running often.

Maybe this could be unpacked little bit?

I'm a fan of Wilson's, loved what he did end of last year, that was predicted too in some quarters. But this year there's nothing to be said about freeing up the offense or allowing Wilson to do more, etc. It seems to me they are devoted to the run and the defense keeps teams down and Carroll let's the defense win it. Why or how does this change?

About Harvin, it's not really clear when he comes back or when he gets full snaps.

The main thing I could see is passing TDs maybe go up with Harvin in there.

That easy schedule cuts both ways. Poor teams are the kind the defense beats up on, they run on them, get a DST score, and then they shut it down. Wilson has 1 TD or less in like 4 of 6 games.

You will learn not to doubt.

Ha, hey, I'm a believer in the QB, just trying to understand the basis why the FF numbers will go up because it's not always about the player. Pure faith? Ok, I respect that.

 

[ponchsox]

He's a boom or bust QB with more bust. You better have a solid team around him.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Don't get all the love for him. Finished ranked 16th last year and is sitting 16th again. Mid-tier guy that is no better than someone like Dalton or Cutler. His running ability doesn't offset his mediocre passing.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/WilsRu00-2.php

He finished 11th last year and was top 5 the second half of the season. Please see the link as factual backup.

 

[Gottabesweet]

Thinking about offering Ryan for him but have doubts.

 

[Rove!]

ranking swayed me to pick him up instead of Foles....my own stupid fault, but in retrospect this will be a big miss

 

[Matty2D]

A little off topic, but in the forward 200, does anyone sorely disagree with the rankings when comparing to other positions?

I can somewhat get the rankings at the individual positions, but when it's combined into an overall 200, I feel as if they are very very bad.

For example, Bilal Powell has a higher value rating than that of Jordy Nelson. I could go on and on with obvious examples.

Does anyone else really think these rankings are bad, or am I missing something?

 

[SproutDaddy]

Dodds is correct.

I would imagine the return of Harvin has something to do with it as well along with the fact that they have a great schedule the rest of the way out.

And that Wilson has not been shy about taking off and running often.

Maybe this could be unpacked little bit?

I'm a fan of Wilson's, loved what he did end of last year, that was predicted too in some quarters. But this year there's nothing to be said about freeing up the offense or allowing Wilson to do more, etc. It seems to me they are devoted to the run and the defense keeps teams down and Carroll let's the defense win it. Why or how does this change?

About Harvin, it's not really clear when he comes back or when he gets full snaps.

The main thing I could see is passing TDs maybe go up with Harvin in there.

That easy schedule cuts both ways. Poor teams are the kind the defense beats up on, they run on them, get a DST score, and then they shut it down. Wilson has 1 TD or less in like 4 of 6 games.

You will learn not to doubt.

One would think you'd know when to keep your mouth shut.

 

[FlapJacks]

I agree this ranking is crazy. Harvin or no Harvin, he doesn't get top 5 throwing it just 30 times a game.

It remoinds me of the hardon FBG had for Garrard.

He's just one of those guys, a few writers fall in love with and can't see reality with

 

[fridayfrenzy]

I agree this ranking is crazy. Harvin or no Harvin, he doesn't get top 5 throwing it just 30 times a game.

It isn't just his throwing. Russell Wilson is on pace for 785 yards rushing. lately, his rushing has been a by-product of his crappy OL, but when the OL is healthy and he doesn't run, then he passes. See Week 1 with 320 passing yards.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

better NFL QB than FF QB.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I agree this ranking is crazy. Harvin or no Harvin, he doesn't get top 5 throwing it just 30 times a game.

It remoinds me of the hardon FBG had for Garrard.

He's just one of those guys, a few writers fall in love with and can't see reality with

Games 9-16 last year he was top 5. Why is it crazy? He probably threw less than 30 times a game last year through that span.

 

[buck naked]

Dodds is correct.

I would imagine the return of Harvin has something to do with it as well along with the fact that they have a great schedule the rest of the way out.

And that Wilson has not been shy about taking off and running often.

Maybe this could be unpacked little bit?

I'm a fan of Wilson's, loved what he did end of last year, that was predicted too in some quarters. But this year there's nothing to be said about freeing up the offense or allowing Wilson to do more, etc. It seems to me they are devoted to the run and the defense keeps teams down and Carroll let's the defense win it. Why or how does this change?

About Harvin, it's not really clear when he comes back or when he gets full snaps.

The main thing I could see is passing TDs maybe go up with Harvin in there.

That easy schedule cuts both ways. Poor teams are the kind the defense beats up on, they run on them, get a DST score, and then they shut it down. Wilson has 1 TD or less in like 4 of 6 games.

You will learn not to doubt.

One would think you'd know when to keep your mouth shut.

He doesn't. He just talks and almost never backs it up with hardcore facts like some of the top quality discussion posters around here.

 

[biju]

better NFL QB than FF QB.

Bingo.

Not that I'm comparing Russell Wilson to Tom Brady, but I think most people would classify Tom Brady as being a game manager and a solid NFL QB during the early part of his career. I see Russell Wilson being much more of that guy at this point in time than the elite positioning he seems to get. He's currently on pace for a 3,300+ yards passing, 750+ yards rushing, 21+ TDs, 10+ INTs year which is effectively 271 points in standard scoring across 16 games, or 16.9 PPG. That's mid-QB2.

Now there are three things that I think people are pinning on him going forward that makes him and interesting "buy low":

1. The O-line is getting healthy again. The Seahawks are currently down their LT and RT, and for weeks 4 and 5 were down their C as well. Okung is due back in week 13 I believe and Giacomini will be ready around week 9 (however he might not win back his job if Bowie keeps improving).

2. Harvin returning to the lineup will make defenses softer. Right now there is a great case that the Seattle WRs aren't getting enough separation. Local radio is making the same assertion. Once Harvin returns to the lineup (and does it at full health) it will make a big difference.

3. The schedule is easier going forward than originally expected. There are some tough games to deal with--any 10am EST game sucks for us, the SF game, the NO game, and our return to Atlanta will be emotionally charged--but overall I think you won't be able to just extrapolate his numbers as I did above.

If I were a betting man I would put him down for closer to 3,600 yards, 28 TDs, 8 INTs and still around 750 rushing yards. That puts him over 21 PPG over the remainder of the season. This is, of course, a ceiling and a guess. His floor is the extrapolation IMO.

 

[ImTheScientist]

better NFL QB than FF QB.

Bingo.

Not that I'm comparing Russell Wilson to Tom Brady, but I think most people would classify Tom Brady as being a game manager and a solid NFL QB during the early part of his career. I see Russell Wilson being much more of that guy at this point in time than the elite positioning he seems to get. He's currently on pace for a 3,300+ yards passing, 750+ yards rushing, 21+ TDs, 10+ INTs year which is effectively 271 points in standard scoring across 16 games, or 16.9 PPG. That's mid-QB2.

Your numbers are off is what I would have to say. In the FPC he is currently at 20.2 ppg which puts him at #13 on an AVG ppg bassis. To move up to #5 he needs to be at 24ppg, the difference between #13 and #8 (currently Cam Newton) is 3ppg.

He is ahead of Tom Brady, Kaepernick, Big Ben, Eli, Vick, Dalton, and Flacco to name a few.

 

[CariocaSean]

Seattle has played top ten pass defenses in four of six games and bottom ten rush defenses in four of six games. Going forward, the pass defenses soften up and the run defenses toughen up. According to FBG SOS for rest of season, the Seahawks have the largest percentage shift to a friendlier fantasy football quarterback schedule.

His rush attempts are way up from last year. He has four games with more than 10 rushes. He didn't have one game last year with more than 10. It's only a matter of time before he finds the endzone.

Harvin returning is going to give him a legitimate stud WR to throw to.

Defenses will be keying on stopping the running game.

He just looks like a stud. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him go on a tear.

 

[Man of Zen]

He's a pure game manager without enough arm to make a difference, and the read option is a dead duck.

This is just the latest in what's rapidly becoming a lengthy list of projections that are completely unrooted from any kind of logic. Terrell Pryor will start all year and won't run at all. Jordy Nelson isn't a top twenty WR moving forward. Russell Wilson is an elite fantasy QB despite going on two years' worth of evidence.

 

[CariocaSean]

He's a pure game manager without enough arm to make a difference, and the read option is a dead duck.

This is just the latest in what's rapidly becoming a lengthy list of projections that are completely unrooted from any kind of logic. Terrell Pryor will start all year and won't run at all. Jordy Nelson isn't a top twenty WR moving forward. Russell Wilson is an elite fantasy QB despite going on two years' worth of evidence.

He was 4th in PPG during the 2nd half of last season.

Guess if the read option is a dead duck he must be on pace for over 700 rushing yards some other way.

 

[biju]

He's a pure game manager without enough arm to make a difference, and the read option is a dead duck.

This is just the latest in what's rapidly becoming a lengthy list of projections that are completely unrooted from any kind of logic. Terrell Pryor will start all year and won't run at all. Jordy Nelson isn't a top twenty WR moving forward. Russell Wilson is an elite fantasy QB despite going on two years' worth of evidence.

The bold portion tells me you're fishing or don't watch the games. Nice try chief.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Now you see why he has him ranked so high.

 

[ponchsox]

He looked pretty good last night. Schedule and Harvin should help.

 

[Second Sight]

Now you see why he has him ranked so high.

To be fair, playing agianst the Cardinals helped form that perception. Before the game last night, it was, and may still be, a good question to ask because WIlson hasn't been anywhere near the super lofty pre-season predictions.

At the end of the day, though, we see what he is capable of and it is impressive. It would be hard for me to rank him that high, not because of him, but because you have a good handful of players playing QB at a very high level right now.§

 

[ImTheScientist]

Now you see why he has him ranked so high.

To be fair, playing agianst the Cardinals helped form that perception. Before the game last night, it was, and may still be, a good question to ask because WIlson hasn't been anywhere near the super lofty pre-season predictions.

At the end of the day, though, we see what he is capable of and it is impressive. It would be hard for me to rank him that high, not because of him, but because you have a good handful of players playing QB at a very high level right now.§

He was 13th for QBs at a PPG basis. He was drafted QB 10-12. What exactly are you talking about?

 

[JamesTheScot]

He's a pure game manager without enough arm to make a difference, and the read option is a dead duck.

This is just the latest in what's rapidly becoming a lengthy list of projections that are completely unrooted from any kind of logic. Terrell Pryor will start all year and won't run at all. Jordy Nelson isn't a top twenty WR moving forward. Russell Wilson is an elite fantasy QB despite going on two years' worth of evidence.

The bold portion tells me you're fishing or don't watch the games. Nice try chief.

No kidding. I stopped reading after that.

 

[Mistabishi]

Now you see why he has him ranked so high.

To be fair, playing agianst the Cardinals helped form that perception. Before the game last night, it was, and may still be, a good question to ask because WIlson hasn't been anywhere near the super lofty pre-season predictions.

At the end of the day, though, we see what he is capable of and it is impressive. It would be hard for me to rank him that high, not because of him, but because you have a good handful of players playing QB at a very high level right now.§

I benched him wherever I had a streamable matchup that was better. The passing yards weren't anything special and the fumbles took away half of one of those TDs. He has some difficult and good matchups coming. One thing I could see emerging for his fantasy prospects is if they decided to soften Lynch's workload until they have the key matchups.

 

[Nick Nasty]

Now you see why he has him ranked so high.

To be fair, playing agianst the Cardinals helped form that perception. Before the game last night, it was, and may still be, a good question to ask because WIlson hasn't been anywhere near the super lofty pre-season predictions.At the end of the day, though, we see what he is capable of and it is impressive. It would be hard for me to rank him that high, not because of him, but because you have a good handful of players playing QB at a very high level right now.§

Seahawks homer here.

I don't think you could argue that playing the cardinals helped his score. Cardinals defense played tough last night - it was offense that let them down. I believe the touchdowns Wilson scored were not on turnovers either.

Will he be top 5 moving forward? I don't think so. Carroll prefers to run the ball, and IMO the rushing yards is just Wilson running for his life behind the injured offensive line. I'd expect rush yards to go down except in games that he needs to take over.

 

[Tau837]

He's a pure game manager without enough arm to make a difference, and the read option is a dead duck.

This is just the latest in what's rapidly becoming a lengthy list of projections that are completely unrooted from any kind of logic. Terrell Pryor will start all year and won't run at all. Jordy Nelson isn't a top twenty WR moving forward. Russell Wilson is an elite fantasy QB despite going on two years' worth of evidence.

The bold portion tells me you're fishing or don't watch the games. Nice try chief.

No kidding. I stopped reading after that.

 

[fightingillini]

Top 5 is a stretch but with Wilson getting 30+ rushing yards each week, I think he's a top 10 QB going forward, especially in 4 pts per TD pass leagues.