Why the Dems didn't win the Senate etc (1 Viewer)

[Mr.Pack]

No one can figure out why the Dems didn't fare well in the other elections other than President, I'll tell you why....

My theory is that you had millions of voters, especially the young ones and probably mostly mail in votes that had no clue about anything other than the get Trump out mantra, and that was their sole purpose for voting. All they did is vote Biden and that's it. Nothing else. So the more informed voter, voted across the ticket. Votes piled up for Biden, but the votes for the Senate etc. were left blank.

Anyway, just my theory.

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

Something like this doesn’t need to be a theory there’s an actual answer you can look up.

 

[Thunderlips]

Meh.  I think more Republicans/Independents split their ticket and voted Biden at the top and R downticket.  

 

[Roy L Fewks]

My theory is that the mainstream liberal media was so focused on protecting just a few Dems (Biden/AOC/Bernie/Pelosi/Schumer) that they forgot to prop up all the others.

 

[Capella]

Yea a lot of republicans just hated Trump and were comfortable with Biden and went down ballot everywhere else. 

 

[pollardsvision]

Meh.  I think more Republicans/Independents split their ticket and voted Biden at the top and R downticket.  

Yeah, seems pretty simple. Although, the next time the Dems run a nationwide conspiracy to steal an election, they should have the dead voters check a few down ballot D's too.

 

[BoltBacker]

Yeah, seems pretty simple. Although, the next time the Dems run a nationwide conspiracy to steal an election, they should have the dead voters check a few down ballot D's too.

Tucker, is that you?

 

[Godsbrother]

It was part of the Deep State's plan to take out Trump but let Republicans keep control of the senate and win a few seats in the house.  Or so I've been told...

 

[James Daulton]

People hate Trump at levels never seen before.

The R's are still a viable party without Trump. 

 

[FUBAR]

It was part of the Deep State's plan to take out Trump but let Republicans keep control of the senate and win a few seats in the house.  Or so I've been told...

Many people firmly believe the best possible result was a split government. Trump out, R Senate. The house could go either way but it wasn't flipping. 

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

I think Maine is the only state that voted for Biden and a GOP Senator. 

 

[The Commish]

I remember when we thought the Senate would be an incredibly heavy lift for the Dems.  I don't know where/when the narrative changed, but it seems rather obvious that the people the GOP alienated by placating/enabling Trump didn't lose much support rather those people just wanted Trump gone.  The only thing shocking about the Senate "flip" scenario is how close it is/was when it shouldn't have been.  This isn't news in a non-Trump presidency...it's SSDD.

 

[Da Guru]

People hate Trump at levels never seen before.

The R's are still a viable party without Trump. 

There is a love-hate factor in play here.  Trump got millions of more votes in losing than Obama did in winning.  The divide is deep.

 

[James Daulton]

There is a love-hate factor in play here.  Trump got millions of more votes in losing than Obama did in winning.  The divide is deep.

100%

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

I think Maine is the only state that voted for Biden and a GOP Senator. 

Georgia probably will too.

 

[wikkidpissah]

the same reason that the incumbent got more than 70million votes - the effect of the 20 years since the repeal of Glass-Steagal. People vote the stock market, just as finance wanted

 

[FUBAR]

It's interesting (to me anyway) that Biden and Trump both took 25 states. Biden also took DC, but more importantly he took California while in general Trump took smaller states. 

Which for the Senate, size doesn't matter.

 

[caustic]

Polarization, mostly. The correlation between how a state votes for President and how it votes for Senate is getting extremely high. Just 14 years ago, that correlation was pretty much zero -- in 2006, both New Jersey and Nebraska elected Democratic Senators, and Ben Nelson's margin of victory in Nebraska was 15 points larger than Bob Menendez's in New Jersey. That would be impossible today. In 2020, Dems' very well-funded Senate campaigns in red states like SC, MT, KS, IA, etc. went nowhere.

Overall, this is an extremely bad trend for Democrats. For quite a while, the Senate has overrepresented white, rural states that voted for Republican Presidents, but Democrats could count on those states to vote somewhat randomly in downballot races. Now they can't.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I actually bet a fair bit of coin on the R's holding the senate.

The country is more red than blue right now, at least as it breaks down with voting districts.  Trump is just so bad he couldn't even win in that environment.

 

[JAA]

No one can figure out why the Dems didn't fare well in the other elections other than President, I'll tell you why....

My theory is that you had millions of voters, especially the young ones and probably mostly mail in votes that had no clue about anything other than the get Trump out mantra, and that was their sole purpose for voting. All they did is vote Biden and that's it. Nothing else. So the more informed voter, voted across the ticket. Votes piled up for Biden, but the votes for the Senate etc. were left blank.

Anyway, just my theory.

This is provable by looking at counts.

Im guessing its not the case.  Im guessing a lot of previously red states voted to keep their Senate red, but was tired of the current POTUS

 

[JAA]

I actually bet a fair bit of coin on the R's holding the senate.

The country is more red than blue right now, at least as it breaks down with voting districts.  Trump is just so bad he couldn't even win in that environment.

I know you said voting districts (ie gerrymandering), but the country is blue

 

[MAC_32]

I remember when we thought the Senate would be an incredibly heavy lift for the Dems.  I don't know where/when the narrative changed

When North Carolina appeared to be in play. I figured Collins was toast (oops) and that NC would decide the senate. 

 

[FUBAR]

I know you said voting districts (ie gerrymandering), but the country is blue

How do you gerrymander the Senate?

 

[Ilov80s]

Just based on my observations in Michigan:  James for Senate outperformed Trump and in my neighborhood I saw more houses with signs for James and other local Republicans than signs for Trump, I have to think there were enough right leaning voters who voted Independent or plugged their noses and voted Biden out of personal dislike for Trump.

 

[matuski]

Meh.  I think more Republicans/Independents split their ticket and voted Biden at the top and R downticket.  

Bingo.

What I did. DRDRDRDRDR

Election could not have gone better.  Super majority prevented.  Winner winner chicken dinner.

 

[MAC_32]

Just based on my observations in Michigan:  James for Senate outperformed Trump and in my neighborhood I saw more houses with signs for James and other local Republicans than signs for Trump, I have to think there were enough right leaning voters who voted Independent or plugged their noses and voted Biden out of personal dislike for Trump.

I think it was more due to an increased rural turnout, but there was certainly a suburban anti trump/divided govt pool too. 

 

[Ilov80s]

I think it was more due to an increased rural turnout, but there was certainly a suburban anti trump/divided govt pool too. 

Yeah you might be right, looking at it once the votes finished up, Trump outperformed James by a slight margin. 

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

How do you gerrymander the Senate?

The Senate is constitutionally gerrymandered. 

 

[JAA]

I know you said voting districts (ie gerrymandering), but the country is blue

How do you gerrymander the Senate?

Good point.  What I was trying to say:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering_in_the_United_States#Other_factors_affecting_redistricting