Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Here's another in a long line of reasons our good Dr. Drinen is way underrated around here. Every time I go over to his site (pro-football-reference.com), I'm reminded that I don't make use of his blog or database nearly often enough.
Why is 3rd and 2 a passing down?
The entire blog entry is a good read for statheads and football fans alike, but here's the salient table for us:
This is 2003-2005 data. Rush (success rate) Pass (success rate)=================================================================(3rd-or-4th)-and-1 76.5% (71.5%) 23.5% (53.9%)(3rd-or-4th)-and-2 41.6% (57.1%) 58.4% (48.9%)(3rd-or-4th)-and-3 25.5% (55.9%) 74.5% (51.8%)(3rd-or-4th)-and-4 19.2% (50.2%) 80.8% (47.1%)(3rd-or-4th)-and-5 15.8% (38.1%) 84.2% (42.1%)To make sure we’re clear, the second line says that on 3rd-and-2 (or 4th-and-2) during the past three seasons, teams have passed the ball 58.4% of the time and run it only 41.6% of the time. When they’ve passed, they’ve picked up the first 48.9% of the time. When they’ve run, they’ve picked it up 57.1% of the time.It's clear to even the most casual football fan that teams are passing more and more often from any down and distance, but this table should really drive home how often a defense might align in a nickel defense on third down. Sure, some of the 58% on 3rd and 2 and 75-80% on 3rd and 3 and 4 occurs from a pro set against a base defense but it's still telling how often the offensive gameplan seeks to throw on third downs.I've asked Doug to help generate similar numbers for second down so we can see the tipping point distance there as well, but the third down data alone is proof that linebackers who don't play on passing downs are roster killers.
Why is 3rd and 2 a passing down?
The entire blog entry is a good read for statheads and football fans alike, but here's the salient table for us:
This is 2003-2005 data. Rush (success rate) Pass (success rate)=================================================================(3rd-or-4th)-and-1 76.5% (71.5%) 23.5% (53.9%)(3rd-or-4th)-and-2 41.6% (57.1%) 58.4% (48.9%)(3rd-or-4th)-and-3 25.5% (55.9%) 74.5% (51.8%)(3rd-or-4th)-and-4 19.2% (50.2%) 80.8% (47.1%)(3rd-or-4th)-and-5 15.8% (38.1%) 84.2% (42.1%)To make sure we’re clear, the second line says that on 3rd-and-2 (or 4th-and-2) during the past three seasons, teams have passed the ball 58.4% of the time and run it only 41.6% of the time. When they’ve passed, they’ve picked up the first 48.9% of the time. When they’ve run, they’ve picked it up 57.1% of the time.It's clear to even the most casual football fan that teams are passing more and more often from any down and distance, but this table should really drive home how often a defense might align in a nickel defense on third down. Sure, some of the 58% on 3rd and 2 and 75-80% on 3rd and 3 and 4 occurs from a pro set against a base defense but it's still telling how often the offensive gameplan seeks to throw on third downs.I've asked Doug to help generate similar numbers for second down so we can see the tipping point distance there as well, but the third down data alone is proof that linebackers who don't play on passing downs are roster killers.
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