Why the odds might be AGAINST Cam Newton (1 Viewer)

[madd futher]

Like many of you, I read and reflected on the article featured by Dave Hyde, beat writer for the Miami Sun-Sentinal who recently featured and edited an incredible piece of work by Chris Kouffman and Simon Clancy of UniversalDraft.com about Cam Newton's draft and pro prospects. That article and the subsequent attention on Newton at the Combine inspired me to write this piece:

All of the top 6 QBs in this year's draft class have considerable raw talent to play at the next level. Three of them - Locker, Mallet, and Ponder have come from systems that are basically “pro style” schemes with multiple sets. The other three, Newton (read-option spread offense), Gabbert (basically a multi-formation passing-spread offensive) and Kaepernick (“Pistol” offense) mostly played in different variations of the spread attack. So how much more difficult of a transition will these three QBs face?

Like any QB from a pro-style college offense, they must adjust to bigger and faster defensive players, new sophisticated blitz packages, and they will seldom see soft zone defenses where CBs sit 8-10 yards of the LOS. But in addition, they must rapidly make the significant adjustments required to run the pro-style multi-set NFL offensive schemes. These guys must quickly perfect the five and seven step drop; they must learn pocket presence including avoiding pressure - learning when to slide laterally or when to climb the ladder in the pocket; they must learn new throwing mechanics once they set their feet; and most of all they must learn to go through multiple read progressions on both sides of the field.

Part of the problem of understanding how translatable the QB is depends on the type of spread offense he came from. The more Rich Rodriquez based read-option spread is a running spread where the QB reads run/handoff/pass. These guys (insert Cam Newton's name here if you like) can obviously be expected to struggle more than QBs from a pro-style system, but they will also struggle more than QBs from teams that use a passing-spread attack. I don’t think there is any QB from a true read-option spread offense that has made a totally successful transition to the NFL (the jury is still out on Tim Tebow, but since he wasn‘t thrown into the ‘fire' right away, and he has a tremendous work ethic, I think he has a good chance).

On the other hand, QBs that played in an "Air Raid" passing-spread system have transitioned fairly quickly - Sam Bradford, just to mention one with significant early success. So QBs from the passing-spread have a much better chance of earlier NFL success.

Many NFL teams do in fact employ variants of the passing-spread offense, but it is in addition to their drop-back formations, and it is much more complex in terms of route progressions and coverage reads. It is just another weapon to keep opposing defenses off-balance. By comparison, most of the college spread offenses (including all of the read-option spreads) are really designed to simplify things for their most talented multi-skill athletes, and to allow offenses to basically isolate that talent against opponents.

Now here’s where we can have a problem of unrealistic expectations. On one hand, the teams that need QBs the most are likely to be the teams that draft early with the poorest records and usually they have the least surrounding talent. QBs selected in early in round 1 by these teams are usually forced to start too early. Not only that, but the expectations of these teams (and their fan base) are that these rookie QBs will essentially be ready to come in and play like veterans.

Is it any wonder, then, that the success rate is so low for QBs drafted in the top 10 of their draft class? And unfortunately that success is less likely to happen with a QB from the spread system - especially from a read-option spread system. Newton, Gabbert, and Kaepernick CAN make it in the NFL, but the higher they are selected in the draft and the greater the pressure exists for achieving instant success, the less likely actually achieving that success will be.

That's really the reason why, of the spread style QBs, I'd consider targeting Kaepernick in a rookie dynasty draft. He is likely to be available in the 3rd or even 4th round, and is much more likely to be given the time to warm the bench and absorb and learn for a year or two which might just increase his chances of NFL success.

Cam Newton (and Blaine Gabbert) on the other hand, have a high probablilty of being selected early in the 1st round. If so, in all probability they will be expected to start almost immediately. Newton, a product of the read-option spread, will likely be expected to play - and play well - way before he is ready. Newton is not even 22 years old yet. I wouldn't want to be his age and to face the pressure to succeed that he will have to face next year - regardless of how much money he makes!

 

[Touchdown There]

Good analysis and I agree that Cam Newton will find it hard to live up to the hype. My only thought is that true talent usually shines through. Kurt Warner should have been a starting NFL QB out of the gate. He was special and could handle the pressure. I am not convinced Aaron Rodgers needed the extra time behind Favre.

Yes, rookie QB's will have a lower chance of success if they are thrown into the fire right away. Every now and then coaches know they will find someone special.

 

[Da Guru]

The main problem is that making a mistake on a QB that high in the draft usually sets back your franchise for five years.

 

[Spiderman]

The only thing missing from this analysis is the fact that the other major issue to transitioning to the NFL is making accurate throws (accurate meaning your receiver has a couple steps on the DB, not 10 yards) with a rush in your face. QB's who are in pass heavy systems tend to make this adjustment better because they've simply thrown more footballs and have a better understanding of their strengths and limitations when trying to throw over a CB and under a Safety, provided they have the arm strength to make that throw with enough velocity. Accuracy is paramount in the NFL. Without it, you will simply not succeed as an NFL QB. This has been the case with storied Notre Dame QB's like Brady Quinn and now likely with Claussen. Both exciting high octane College QB's, but with fundamental issues delivering the football. Most notably, a lack of accuracy.

I see this lack of touch and accuracy combined with his career reliance on his legs as Newton's main issues. He is going to struggle in his first couple seasons in the NFL and any team selecting him better prepare for that. If there isn't a QB in place to lead the team for at least one season before you turn the ball over to him in Year 2 (expecting struggles that year too), then watch out. This guy will get slapped with a bust label sometime in his second season and that's when his ego issues will kick in. He may think so highly of himself that he turns into Ryan Leaf with all the negativity being thrown his way.

Dallas' interest is intriguing to me. Jerry Jones loves to draft high profile guys and with a roster that's pretty talented, I could see Jones selecting Newton, even with Romo on the roster. Why would he do that? A couple reasons. First, he would love the high profile nature of the selection in selling jerseys and putting people in the seats. Newton will do that to whatever team he's selected on due to his incredibly athletic ability and his high profile. Second, he wouldn't have to force him into a starting QB role. He could create an assortment of packages to get him on the field and give opposing Defenses something to deal with, while grooming him to take over for Romo in 2-3 years. Very interesting possibility as Jones has to make sure that stadium is sold out, regardless of what exorbitant price he charges for tickets.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Newton had accuracy problems at the combine, but I don't think that was ever really voiced as a concern before the combine. His accuracy was pretty good this past season.

Manning threw from the shotgun 70% of te time this past year. And the Colt's offense is actually fairly simple. They only have a few sets that they typically run and a few route trees. But they're just so good at reading defenses and being on the same page.

IMO, the two most important qualities for an NFL QB are accuracy and the ability to read defenses. There have been plenty of quarterbacks with unorthodox throwing motions and bad footwork, but you're not going to stick around for long if you're inaccurate and can't read a defense.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

... Is it any wonder, then, that the success rate is so low for QBs drafted in the top 10 of their draft class?

I understand the argument against spread/option or just non-PRO SET offense QB prospects having difficulty or more diffculty making it in the NFL but at this time of year many people loosely throw out statements about positions having a low success rate without any sort of context. A guy who hits a ball with a bat only one third of the time is lame unless he's an MLB player facing top pitching, then he's an All Star. A statement has to be properly framed especially when discussing first round picks and positions. CONTEXT is the key to interpreting success rates.Advaned NFL Stats did aseries on success rates by rounds of five different positions, QB, WR, RB, LB, DE, and broke it down by the number of Pro Bowls per round to give the 'success rate' argument CONTEXT. This series kicks butt and is very detailed with graphs and charts, pure NFL draft gold.

The series of articles not only gives position and round but also breaks down each individual position's 'success' rate.

LINK to Advanced NFL Stats artilces on QBs, WRs, DEs, LBs, RBs

table and graph below show the likelihood that a QB drafted in each round will pan-out and be selected to at least 1 Pro Bowl (1+ PB), at least 2 PBs (+2 PB), and at least 3 PBs (+3 PB). The data set is not large (only 193 QBs total), so the graph contains smoothed lines for a more realistic estimate of future expected performance from each round.

QUARTERBACKS

Rnd 1+ PB 2+ PB 3+ PB

1 0.38 0.28 0.23

2 0.32 0.21 0.16

3 0.13 0.04 0.00

4 0.06 0.03 0.03

5 0.10 0.10 0.10

6 0.14 0.11 0.06

7 0.03 0.00 0.00

The table and graph below list the same information as above--how often a drafted QB is selected to a PB. This time the QBs are broken out by which QB pick they were in their draft year. Again, smoothed lines are added.

QB Pick 1+ PB 2+ PB 3+ PB

1 0.38 0.38 0.33

2 0.29 0.14 0.05

3 0.14 0.10 0.10

4 0.19 0.10 0.10

5 0.19 0.10 0.00

6 0.11 0.06 0.06

7 0.17 0.17 0.17

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Percentage of WRs drafted in each round who made at least one Pro Bowl:

1st rd WR - 33% made a Pro Bowl

2nd rd WR - 15% made a Pro Bowl

3rd rd WR - 12% made a Pro Bowl

4th rd WR - 4% made a Pro Bowl

5th rd WR - 9% made a Pro Bowl

6th rd WR - 2% made a Pro Bowl

7th rd WR - 2% made a Pro Bowl

The graph also shows what percentage made at least 2 or 3 Pro Bowls, which has an even steeper dropoff from round 1 to rounds 2-3:

1st rd WR - 26% made 3+ Pro Bowls (27% made 2+)

2nd rd WR - 7% made 3+ Pro Bowls (12% made 2+)

3rd rd WR - 3% made 3+ Pro Bowls (4% made 2+)

4th rd WR - 2% made 3+ Pro Bowls (4% made 2+)

5th rd WR - 2% made 3+ Pro Bowls (5% made 2+)

6th rd WR - 0% made 3+ Pro Bowls (0% made 2+)

7th rd WR - 1% made 3+ Pro Bowls (1% made 2+)

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Here are links to the information for the rest of the positions to get better CONTEXT of 'success' rates of positions by round. Too much info to cut and paste and they also have graphs that can't be copied.

The first is of:

Defensive Ends stats to compare and contrast position*round drafted to put 'success' rates into proper CONTEXT. I did cut-and-paste the conclusion that they drew of defensive ends but go to the link for the full article.

LINK to DE information

Conclusion

It appears that, on average, each draft provides two DEs in the first round who have a high probability of being an above-average player. But compared to QBs and RBs, DEs taken in later rounds may have a better opportunity to excel.

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RBs

LINK to RB article

Conclusion

Top picks solidly outperform subsequent picks. The top two RBs taken tend to almost be in a class to themselves, then there is a steady decline in expected performance until the 8th RB taken, at which point there is very little to be expected from a pick....

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LBs

LINK LB article

The continuing theme in this series is that the best players really do come from the top of the draft. No surprise there. But the top players have more than just an incrementally higher chance of great success, but double or triple the chance. The scouts and GMs do have an ability to recognize the players with the most potential at every position we've looked at so far. It's interesting to see just how steep the drop off really is after the first few players.

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DBs

LINK DB article

... We should expect an inverse relationship between the ability of scouts to identify the superior prospects and how deep into the draft teams can expect to find solid starter-quality players.

And that's really the point of all this analysis. In order to eventually build a sound comprehensive model of draft strategy, we'd need to know all of the likelihoods of success for the various positions in each round and at each pick order. In the meantime, it's useful to know how deep into the draft a team can find viable contributors at the various positions.

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Going back to the original statement that QBs have a low success rate, without context that statement means nothing. Context is the key. Each position has a success/failure rate by round and no suprise the top players drafted have a higher success rate than lower drafted players by position.

The success rate of first round or highly drafted QBs is about the same as other positions and better than some. That is one layer of context however if you need a QB you need a QB and trust your scouting staff to get one knowing full-well that if you bypass taking a QB at the top of the draft your chances of success drop and we know that certain teams need QBs at the top of this draft so I think Cam Newton's chances of getting drafted high increasae significantly by the sheer number of teams needing a QB.

The raw numbers of first round QBs making it don't bode well for any QB prospect but if a team bypasses drafting a QB at the top of the draft their chances for success are lowered.

 

[JamesTheScot]

Dallas' interest is intriguing to me. Jerry Jones loves to draft high profile guys and with a roster that's pretty talented, I could see Jones selecting Newton, even with Romo on the roster. Why would he do that? A couple reasons. First, he would love the high profile nature of the selection in selling jerseys and putting people in the seats. Newton will do that to whatever team he's selected on due to his incredibly athletic ability and his high profile. Second, he wouldn't have to force him into a starting QB role. He could create an assortment of packages to get him on the field and give opposing Defenses something to deal with, while grooming him to take over for Romo in 2-3 years. Very interesting possibility as Jones has to make sure that stadium is sold out, regardless of what exorbitant price he charges for tickets.

I don't see the marketing angle, though. How is Jerry going to sell Newton? Posters of him holding a clipboard? Come see our latest gee-whiz rookie ride the pine. I think it only make sense if Jerry sees Romo being somewhere else two to three years from now and thinks Newton can be groomed by then. What's the status of Romo's contract?

 

[cobalt_27]

Dallas' interest is intriguing to me. Jerry Jones loves to draft high profile guys and with a roster that's pretty talented, I could see Jones selecting Newton, even with Romo on the roster. Why would he do that? A couple reasons. First, he would love the high profile nature of the selection in selling jerseys and putting people in the seats. Newton will do that to whatever team he's selected on due to his incredibly athletic ability and his high profile. Second, he wouldn't have to force him into a starting QB role. He could create an assortment of packages to get him on the field and give opposing Defenses something to deal with, while grooming him to take over for Romo in 2-3 years. Very interesting possibility as Jones has to make sure that stadium is sold out, regardless of what exorbitant price he charges for tickets.