Why there probably won't be a RB picked in the 1st round this year (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

I read a lot of chatter online about how the league is devaluing the RB position, but IMO that's misleading. The RB position has been devalued for the past decade and it has almost always required a special talent to justify such a high pick at this position.

I'd argue that the lack of a first round RB in 2013 and 2014 (I'm guessing) has a lot more to do with the players themselves rather than league-wide trends. Simply put, there hasn't been a good enough RB prospect in either of these two drafts to justify that high of a selection.

I just threw together a spreadsheet with workout information for all 27 RBs drafted in the first round from 2004-2012.

Here are the averages in a few key physical categories:

Weight - 216.7

BMI (body thickness) - 30.3

40 - 4.44

Vertical - 35.8"

Broad Jump - 10'3"

That's a pretty good description of the generic first round caliber RB from a workout numbers standpoint.

If you sort by weight, you find that 21 of 27 RBs were at least 210 pounds. Of the 6 "small" backs who weighed below 210 pounds, here are the averages:

40 - 4.34

Vertical - 36.3"

Broad Jump - 10'5.5"

If you sort by BMI, you find that 21 of 27 RBs were at least 29.6 or higher. Of the 6 "small" backs who were below that threshold, here are the averages:

40 - 4.33

Vertical - 35.9

Broad Jump - 10'5.3"

Here are the numbers for the 21 RBs whose weight puts them in the "not small" group:

40 - 4.47

Vertical - 35.6"

Broad Jump - 10'2"

Here are the numbers for the 21 RBs whose BMI puts them in the "not small" group:

40 - 4.47

Vertical - 35.75"

Broad Jump - 10'2"

The most significant difference between the two "small" groups and the two "not small" groups is the 40 time. The jumps are marginally better for the small backs, but the difference is minimal. However, the 40 times are over a full tenth faster on average. What this means is that "small" backs (either according to weight or body thickness) need to run REALLY fast to get picked in the 1st round.

For a "not small" RB (one with a 29+ BMI and/or a weight of 210+ pounds) to get picked in the first round, he probably needs to be within shouting distance of a 4.47 40, a 35.5" vertical, and a 10'2" broad jump. Anything that's more than .05 slower in the 40, 2" shorter in the vertical, and ~3-4" shorter in the broad jump starts to look like a dealbreaker unless he's absolutely exceptional in one of the other drills (i.e. Mendy and Ronnie bombing in the jumps, but running insanely fast for their size). If you're a "small" RB (sub 29 BMI and/or sub 210 pound), you want to be in the same ballpark in the jumps and you probably also need to clock at least a 4.3X to expect a first round draft slot.

Apply these restrictions to the 2014 and 2013 draft classes. You'll see pretty quickly why there isn't a first round talent in either. Bell, Lacy, and Ball were nowhere near hitting these marks. Gio Bernard was too light without elite speed. Knile Davis and Christine Michael basically fit the physical profile, but they had glaring production/injury issues. This year, Hyde and Hill are nowhere near hitting the right marks. The guys who tested well (Sankey, Seastrunk, and Mason) are all below 210 pounds without the requisite speed for that size.

Charles Sims, Terrance West, Jerick McKinnon, and Andre Williams kind of fit the mold from a measurables standpoint, but then nobody has ever argued that those players are first round talents. The workout numbers are very much a "necessary, but not sufficient thing." In other words, "you must be this athletic to be a first round back, but being this athletic doesn't guarantee that you'll be a first round back."

Add it all up and it doesn't look like there's a first round back in this draft. That's not because the league is moving away from drafting RBs in the first round (which will probably be the prevailing narrative that we hear for the next 12 months after the draft), but rather because for whatever reason there simply haven't been any RB prospects in the last two years who possessed the right combination of production, high subjective ratings by scouts, and excellent tangible measured athleticism.

 

[ghostguy123]

There shouldn't be...............but I bet there will be.

 

[ghostguy123]

But I definitely agree that the "value" of a RB is much lower than ever. Not the value on the field, but their draft value and trade value.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Econ 101 Supply > Demand

 

[cstu]

Econ 101 Supply > Demand

The NFL is not an efficient market.

 

[Bojang0301]

There shouldn't be...............but I bet there will be.

The demand isn't there. While not a lot of teams have bell cows no one is feeling they need a bell cow. The top side of the first round is littered with talent albeit underclass heavy. You'll see a drop off around pick 16 or 17 and the teams coming after that will already be two or three running backs deep looking at a class that EBF has rightfully graded as uninspiring for a 1st round worthy grade. Don't get me wrong I like a lot of the RB's in this class. I think Seastrunk looks like McCoy and Hyde can definitely be like Lacy but look where those guys went in the draft.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Tyler Gaffney 5'11", 220-pounds, 4.49 40yd, 36.5" vert, 9'8" BJ to go with 1,709 RY and 21 TDs in the PAC-12

You don't think the fact that you could sign that "generic 1st round RB" via FA plays a part in where these RBs are drafted this year?

Did any RB get invited to the draft btw?

 

[ShaHBucks]

Econ 101 Supply > Demand

The NFL is not an efficient market.

The more I learn about the NFL, the more I agree. Let Mike Mayock or another big name pundit tout a RB and he will go in the 1st. That reminds me of when Kiper said the Bucs should draft Trent Richardson right after L. Blount rushed for around 5ypc as a rookie.

 

[ghostguy123]

There shouldn't be...............but I bet there will be.

The demand isn't there. While not a lot of teams have bell cows no one is feeling they need a bell cow. The top side of the first round is littered with talent albeit underclass heavy. You'll see a drop off around pick 16 or 17 and the teams coming after that will already be two or three running backs deep looking at a class that EBF has rightfully graded as uninspiring for a 1st round worthy grade. Don't get me wrong I like a lot of the RB's in this class. I think Seastrunk looks like McCoy and Hyde can definitely be like Lacy but look where those guys went in the draft.

I think it will end up being through trade.

Like I said, none SHOULD but I think one will.

 

[cstu]

There shouldn't be...............but I bet there will be.

The demand isn't there. While not a lot of teams have bell cows no one is feeling they need a bell cow. The top side of the first round is littered with talent albeit underclass heavy. You'll see a drop off around pick 16 or 17 and the teams coming after that will already be two or three running backs deep looking at a class that EBF has rightfully graded as uninspiring for a 1st round worthy grade. Don't get me wrong I like a lot of the RB's in this class. I think Seastrunk looks like McCoy and Hyde can definitely be like Lacy but look where those guys went in the draft.

Broncos at 31 could surprise people.

 

[ShaHBucks]

This was the RB market before free agency.

30+ year old former pro-bowlers: Ronnie Brown, Willis McGahee or Leon Washington. Take your pick.

Under 30 former 1st round picks: Maurice Jones-Drew, Donald Brown, Darren McFadden and Knowshon Moreno. Will cost 2-4M at the most

Elite measurable, with low miles: Tate and Gerhart

More names: Andre Brown and L. Blount. Sproles for a 5th? Bryce Brown and CJ2K rumors?

I don't care if AP was in this draft. Your organization is nuts if you take a RB in the 1st or overpay for a starting back. Unless my team is a RB away from a superbowl I will weigh other options. Starter talent RB are widely availible. Maybe the NFL hasn't caught on to this, maybe they did. Based on my own research it's an oversupplied position.

** I take the AP comment back. Late 1st I'd be game

 

[Tackling Dummies]

Not giving up on BMI I see and the combine stats are worthless BTW.

 

[Brewtown]

NFL GMs have deemed that the RB position is not worth risking a high pick on a RB. It's not worth the risk or the investment.

Trent Richardson flopping and visions of Adrian Peterson's knee getting jacked (even though he made a super-human return) have not helped matters. I assume that the new concussion rules may also play an impact in this change of no first round backs.

I would not take a RB high in the NFL draft either.

In fantasy though it's a different story! Running backs are difference makers that are necessary to win a championship. They are the holy grail, and you do whatever you need to do to keep your shelf stocked with RBs.

Over-simplifying things and making broad-based judgements based on size or a specific speed is probably not a wise move for a scout. Talent comes in all shapes and sizes. Ray Rice and Gio Bernard types have shown they all don't have to look a certain way or have a specific time.

I think that scouts and GMs have taken notice. Just like they have taken notice that Johnny Manziel may succeed in the NFL despite his size (see - Wilson, Russell).

The NFL game is constantly evolving. As a scout or fantasy player I think it is important to understand and pay attention to changes in the game (offense evolution, supply/demand of positions, and what is working or has worked recently for other teams).

There is not a doubt in my mind that the RB position has been devalued in the eyes of NFL GMs. I think that it is foolish to think otherwise.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Mamas don't let your babies grow up to be running backs..

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Mamas don't let your babies grow up to be running backs..

This is a much more interesting thought. Do talented football recruits/prospects avoid the RB position in the future due to the toll it takes on the body, the short careers, and the lesser chance at a monster second contract? There will always be guys who can't be anything BUT RB's...but it's certainly not a glorified position anymore, and that perception will only continue to get worse. So we could see the available talent pool shrink, along with the natural devaluation of the position.

 

[jurb26]

RB has been slowly devalued over the years but it most certainly has been devalued more the past few years.

RB average salary is lower now than it's ever been, 2nd lowest in the NFL behind only TE. That has nothing to do with the draft or draft position. That is a reflection of the monetary value owners and GMs are placing on the position for guys on their rosters. Just 3 years ago RBs were paid on average higher than 2 positions they are now behind, K/P and S. This has also bled over to a remarkably soft FA market for RBs in recent years.

Also, while there may not have been ubber talents in the draft pool the past couple of years, the rate and frequency of which RBs are being drafted is alarming. They have the fewest amount of 1st and 2nd rounders selected of all positions the past 3 years and also have the worst ADP of all players drafted. That's a double whammy of bad. It's easy to say that these guys don't fit the perfect mold to what NFL teams want but tons of other positions have guys drafted highly and they don't fit the mold, either. With out breaking down what the molds are for every position this effort is pretty meaningless IMO.

For example we have had 5 QBs the past 3 years drafted in the top half of the 1st round that in no way, shape or form where top half talents. Gabbert, Ponder, Locker, Manuel and Weeden all got pushed up because the NFL demands that QBs are a vital position. We've seen a shrimp WR taken 8th overall last year, Austin. We've also seen incomplete workout warrior prospects like Jenkins and Baldwin forced into the 1st round. The amount of fringe T's that have been moved up based on demand is staggering. Guys like; L. Johnson, J. Pugh, T. Smith, G. Carimi and D. Sherrod.

I could go on and on. The simple fact is NFL teams aren't willing to make these same stretches with RBs because they don't see the position as valuable enough or in demand.

 

[Soulfly3]

Cycles. Everything goes in cycles.

In 5yrs, a coach will be hailed a genius for having 2 elite RBs on his squad and running the ball 80yds downfield for a TD every drive - draining the clock and winning games 14-6

 

[Bojang0301]

Cycles. Everything goes in cycles.

In 5yrs, a coach will be hailed a genius for having 2 elite RBs on his squad and running the ball 80yds downfield for a TD every drive - draining the clock and winning games 14-6

I already think it's going to trend back that way. Seattle won on defense and running the ball and did so dominantly. Anytime that happens the league takes notice. It's why CB's have been swiped off the market so quickly. Everyone already knows Bradley wants to imitate Seattle in Jacksonville and the Browns have a Shanahan running their offense now albeit one who needs to get out of his own way. Lacy and Bell look like the next big things at RB. Will be interesting to see what the future holds.

 

[Sweet Love]

I just look at the simple fact that out of the past four, upper-first round RBs to be selected (McFadden, Richardson, Moreno, Mathews), not one has lived up to expectations. One was signed for pennies on the dollar for what he should have garnered had he performed (McFadden), one was traded after 1.5 years (Richardson), one was allowed to walk (Moreno) and the last was hanging on by a thread prior to last season (Mathews). For example, Ray Rice has more rushing yardage than McFadden (taken same year) and Moreno (taken following year) combined.

If a couple of these guys "hit it", we may not be having this conversation. I certainly see the point about the BMI/speed/weight argument, and maybe the RBs of 2013/2014 do not meet that (or maybe are just not deserving to be taken early), but the recent track record of recent 1st round RBs does not help. I bet you if the majority of those four guys performed like Pro Bowl RBs you would see teams making excuses as to why Hyde (for example) should be taken in the first.

 

[MAC_32]

There is not a great prospect in this lot, that's why one won't go in the first round. Some good ones developing, so expect them to be drafted in the first as they come out. Not number three high, but second half round one? Oh yeah.

 

[JamesTheScot]

I think it is cyclical. As defenses become built around stopping the pass, particularly as LB's and safeties need to maximize coverage skills, they will start to become more of a liability in the running game, which OC's will try to exploit. At some point the pendulum will swing back.

But I think the BMI argument isn't that insightful. Follow the money. If RB's are earning less, it's because they aren't worth as much. Also, look at how high (or low) one-dimensional RB's get drafted.

I think there is probably a correlation (though maybe NOT causation) between BMI and draft grade with the causation agent actually being versatility. A light RB who is only seen as being an asset in the passing game, like a heavy two-down thumper, isn't going to get drafted as high as the guy who can run between the tackles, block, catch and be a mismatch in space for a LB or safety. I think there is probably a sweet spot in terms of versatility profile.

To further Jurb's point...

Look at the QB's that aren't first round talent that go in the first round. You can't say that QB's go higher than they should without acknowledging that the passing game is increasing the value of QB's. Since there are limited first round picks, that necessarily means that other positions are losing out. Now, I am open to the idea that it could be positions other than RB, but I'd like to see the trends to see what's born out.

 

[zamboni]

Probably has been said already, but no doubt the rash of injuries at the starting RB position gives GMs pause. And when, in many cases, you see their backups fill in just fine, it's a small wonder why teams won't pay up for a starting RB unless he's viewed as a supreme talent.

 

[Donnybrook]

Doesn't the devaluation of running backs kinda coincide with changes or better enforcement of the passing rules?

 

[duaneok66]

Great post EBF - love what you bring to the Pool.

 

[jurb26]

Doesn't the devaluation of running backs kinda coincide with changes or better enforcement of the passing rules?

I think the passing rules have certainly played a role in this. I also think that the passing rule changes have made an impact on why lesser talents can succeed at RB in the NFL today. More and more the focus of defenses is to get to the QB and stop the pass. Many times, that comes at the expense of stopping the run. Be it fielding DEs who are pass rushing specialist but weak in run support or smaller S with cover skills and range but who lack bulk and alley filling run support. The game has changed. Everything points to it being a passing league.

 

[babydemon90]

And yet, both teams in the Super Bowl had RB's drafted in the 1st round (granted one aquired via trade for much less).

10 out of 12 playoff teams rolled with a RB drafted in the 1st or 2nd (11 out of 12 if we throw in NE's Vereen, but they mostly used Blount so we'll leave them off).

 

[QuizGuy66]

Been years since we've had a good BMI running back like William Perry :(

-QG

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I disagree on the point about Peterson: assuming he was available young and healthy absolutely he would be worth a top 3 pick for any team, I'd say the same is true of a McCoy or Charles.

But:

If this is correct, about no RBs in the 1st round, it would be the second year in a row this has happened.

Question: are the best high school athletes still choosing to be RBs or are they more interested in other positions?

 

[JamesTheScot]

And yet, both teams in the Super Bowl had RB's drafted in the 1st round (granted one aquired via trade for much less).

10 out of 12 playoff teams rolled with a RB drafted in the 1st or 2nd (11 out of 12 if we throw in NE's Vereen, but they mostly used Blount so we'll leave them off).

Drafted how long ago?

Think of it this way. When we start talking about the most important positions in football, after QB, what do we have? Lockdown CB's? DE/OLB's? LT's?

These are the foundations for your team. What do they all have in common?

Can we imagine a draft where no QB is taken in the first? What about no CB, or no DE/OLB, no LT?

Teams reach for inferior talent at these positions in a weak draft class because the position itself is so key.

 

[duaneok66]

And yet, both teams in the Super Bowl had RB's drafted in the 1st round (granted one aquired via trade for much less).

10 out of 12 playoff teams rolled with a RB drafted in the 1st or 2nd (11 out of 12 if we throw in NE's Vereen, but they mostly used Blount so we'll leave them off).

Drafted how long ago?

Think of it this way. When we start talking about the most important positions in football, after QB, what do we have? Lockdown CB's? DE/OLB's? LT's?

These are the foundations for your team. What do they all have in common?

Can we imagine a draft where no QB is taken in the first? What about no CB, or no DE/OLB, no LT?

Teams reach for inferior talent at these positions in a weak draft class because the position itself is so key.

reaching just makes it worse.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

This would be more meaningful to me if the arbitrary cut off for big vs. small wasn't 210, when two of the upper tier prospects were measured at 207 and 209. So if Sankey was one pound heavier, he'd be a lock for the 1st round? He would certainly meet all the of the other criteria you mentioned.

I don't think there will be a 1st round back this year either, but I don't think it has much to do with historical measurables. The position is in a down phase, and there aren't any real no-brainers out there right now. I do also believe there is something to the fact that RB is probably the worst position to pick as an athlete if you have any choice. It is becoming more and more obvious to young players that RBs are paid less and hurt more with shorter careers than other positions. So the elite athlete is going to go another way if he has any choice. If you are a lightning fast elite athlete 6 footer, do you bulk up a bit and play RB, or do you shoot for WR/CB, etc.

Now what you end up with are the bigger guys not quite quick enough to play WR, and the short guys who don't have many other position options. That doesn't mean some of them cant be really good, but I think it does mean the pool of elite athletes is smaller.

 

[cstu]

And yet, both teams in the Super Bowl had RB's drafted in the 1st round (granted one aquired via trade for much less).

10 out of 12 playoff teams rolled with a RB drafted in the 1st or 2nd (11 out of 12 if we throw in NE's Vereen, but they mostly used Blount so we'll leave them off).

Drafted how long ago?

Think of it this way. When we start talking about the most important positions in football, after QB, what do we have? Lockdown CB's? DE/OLB's? LT's?

These are the foundations for your team. What do they all have in common?

Can we imagine a draft where no QB is taken in the first? What about no CB, or no DE/OLB, no LT?

Teams reach for inferior talent at these positions in a weak draft class because the position itself is so key.

Here's my view on RB's:

- they are still valuable to teams and you do need a good one to be successful

- RB's are playing well into their late 20's, early 30's (Fred Jackson)

- there are a lot of older RB's that teams can cheaply rent for a year or two

- there haven't been many elite talents without injury/character issues

- RB is a brutal position: why spend a high 1st when there's a good chance the player won't stay healthy for the length of their contract.

- 1st round rookie picks now give teams the option of a 5th year: better to use your 1st on a position with less injury concerns

- Teams are seeing that a lot of late drafted RB's (Morris, Stacy) and UDFA's (Foster, Ivory, Khiry Robinson) can be effective

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Cycles. Everything goes in cycles.

In 5yrs, a coach will be hailed a genius for having 2 elite RBs on his squad and running the ball 80yds downfield for a TD every drive - draining the clock and winning games 14-6

I'll e-mail gary kubiak.

to base all this on the evaluation of the rb position is a bit of an oversimplification, because in order to get drafted in the first 32 players picked the rb group is competing against all other positions, and there's greater scarcity and value at these positions.

each team starts 2 offensive tackles, and if you're in need, you'd rather get your tackle with the 5th pick and your rb later in the draft.

same is true at defensive tackle, cornerback, wr, and while you don't start multiple qb, clearly that position has more value.

so, if each team only gets to pick a single player in the first round, I think it's more of a relative devaluation of the position than an outright disregard.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Mamas don't let your babies grow up to be running backs..

The world needs long snappers too.

 

[cstu]

Can we imagine a draft where no QB is taken in the first? What about no CB, or no DE/OLB, no LT?

The last time a QB wasn't taken in the 1st was 1996. Before that, 1988, 1985, 1984, and 1974.

Prior to last year the last time a RB wasn't taken in the 1st was 1963.

 

[EBF]

This would be more meaningful to me if the arbitrary cut off for big vs. small wasn't 210, when two of the upper tier prospects were measured at 207 and 209. So if Sankey was one pound heavier, he'd be a lock for the 1st round? He would certainly meet all the of the other criteria you mentioned.

Here is the list of players by BMI along with their 40 times:

NAME BMI 40 Jonathan Stewart 33.5 4.46 Trent Richardson 33.5 4.48 Doug Martin 32.7 4.46 Rashard Mendenhall 32.2 4.41 Mark Ingram 31.7 4.62 DeAngelo Williams 31.6 4.45 Ronnie Brown 31.4 4.43 Cedric Benson 31.4 4.62 Beanie Wells 30.9 4.52 Kevin Jones 30.8 X Knowshon Moreno 30.7 4.5 Cadillac Williams 30.5 4.43 Steven Jackson 30.1 4.55 Chris Perry 30 4.56 Donald Brown 30 4.46 Ryan Mathews 30 4.37 David Wilson 30 4.38 Marshawn Lynch 29.9 4.46 Laurence Maroney 29.7 4.48 Joseph Addai 29.7 4.4 Felix Jones 29.6 4.44 Jahvid Best 28.5 4.34 Reggie Bush 28.3 4.37 Adrian Peterson 28.3 4.4 Darren McFadden 27.7 4.33 CJ Spiller 27.7 4.27 Chris Johnson 27.5 4.24

The average BMI is 30.3. Once you start to get around ~1.5 points off that mark, I think you start to get into the territory of "big" and "small" backs. It is a little bit arbitrary, but there is a pretty large gap between that bottom cluster and the rest of the group. It's also very interesting that all six of the 28.5 or lower BMI backs ran at least a 4.40 in the 40. It demonstrates how critical it is to be blazing fast if you're a RB with a lean frame.

If you sort by weight, you get something like this:

Joseph Addai 29.7 214 4.4 Darren McFadden 27.7 211 4.33 Donald Brown 30 210 4.46 Felix Jones 29.6 207 4.44 David Wilson 30 206 4.38 Reggie Bush 28.3 201 4.37 Jahvid Best 28.5 199 4.34 Chris Johnson 27.5 197 4.24 CJ Spiller 27.7 196 4.27

The same general pattern holds true. Ignoring BMI, it's accurate to just look at weight and conclude that lighter backs have to be faster to be drafted high.

You can argue about the specifics all you want, but the general pattern is obvious. Any RB lower on the weight/BMI scale will generally have to run a blazing 40 time to get picked in the 1st round. Look at the 40 times for guys like Gio Bernard (4.50), Tre Mason (4.50), Lache Seastrunk (4.51), and Bishop Sankey (4.49). Those guys all weigh between 200-209 pounds and none of them has even above average measured track speed. The combination of the low overall weight and the lack of 40 speed probably explains why you didn't/won't see those guys come off the board in the first 32 picks.

It's a very similar story for the big backs. Even if they're heavy, they still have to test well. Of the 27 first round RBs, only 6 ran 4.50 or slower (Beanie, SJax, Benson, Perry, Moreno, Ingram). Of that group, only two ran 4.60 or slower (Benson and Ingram). That's a bad sign for Eddie Lacy (4.64), Carlos Hyde (4.66), and Jeremy Hill (4.66). LeVeon Bell ran 4.56 in the 40 (slower than everyone besides Chris Perry, Mark Ingram, and Cedric Benson). He also did very poorly in the jumps with a 31.5" vertical and 9'10" broad jump. Both well off the average marks.

teams won't pay up for a starting RB unless he's viewed as a supreme talent.

That is the key idea. It's not enough to be serviceable to get picked this high. A RB prospect generally needs to be either insanely explosive (i.e. Spiller, McFadden, Bush) or be big with solid explosiveness for that size (i.e. Stewart, Martin, Mathews).

None of the highly-touted RB prospects from the 2013 class or 2014 class fit that mold, which has nothing to do with the league's valuation of RBs and everything to do with the player pool. You can't say that the NBA doesn't value franchise centers when all the centers in the draft are 6'9". That's essentially what's been going on the past two years. The argument that the league has moved away from coveting franchise backs would be a lot more compelling if there were somebody with awesome measurables, versatility and production who still somehow slipped out of the first round. I haven't seen that.

What we're seeing is probably just a temporary down cycle in the quality of the backs coming out of college. It doesn't help that a guy like Lattimore blew up his knee twice while a guy like Dyer who has freaky mass/speed/explosiveness went off the rails. If those things don't happen, maybe we're talking about how this 2014 class is a huge disappointment relative to the two first round RBs we had last year.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I think Seastrunk and Bishop tested really well outside the straight line 40 yard dash.

 

[EBF]

I think Seastrunk and Bishop tested really well outside the straight line 40 yard dash.

It sort of depends on what you're looking at. Sankey was a good weight for his height (30.8 BMI), but his overall weight was just 209 pounds which is still on the light side. The only backs lighter than that who went in the 1st round during this time period were Felix Jones, David Wilson, Reggie Bush, Jahvid Best, CJ Spiller, and Chris Johnson. Felix is the only guy there who didn't run a 4.3X or faster. At 4.44 he was still half a tenth faster than Sankey's 4.49. You can make a pretty good case that, despite his good jumps, he'd need to be a bit heavier and/or faster to have a good shout for going in the 1st.

Seastrunk's jumps were not just good, but insanely good. 11'2" is a better broad jump than any of the 27 RBs from the group. For a guy who's only 5'9" to jump like that shows a freaky level of athleticism. His 41.5" vertical was basically off the charts as well. Here's the problem when it comes to talking about him as a realistic 1st round candidate: He's not all that big and his 40 times weren't all that fast. He has a decent enough weight/height ratio with a 29.6 BMI, but he only weighs 201 pounds. That's lower than everybody besides Best, Bush, Johnson, and Spiller. All guys with ELITE track speed. In contrast, Seastrunk ran a 4.51 in the 40. His career best in the 100m is "just" 10.81 (as a high school senior) compared to 10.42 for Reggie (as a high school junior), 10.36 for Jahvid (as a high school senior), and 10.29 for Spiller (at Clemson). Basically, he's fast but he doesn't have that next level of unreal speed.

None of this means these guys can't become solid NFL contributors, but strictly in terms of their chances of getting into the first round of the draft, these are probably deal-breakers.

 

[JamesTheScot]

Can we imagine a draft where no QB is taken in the first? What about no CB, or no DE/OLB, no LT?

The last time a QB wasn't taken in the 1st was 1996. Before that, 1988, 1985, 1984, and 1974.

Prior to last year the last time a RB wasn't taken in the 1st was 1963.

That's interesting. Thanks for posting.

 

[Biabreakable]

2014 NFL Draft: Talent at the Running Back Position by Bryan Perez, Director of College Scouting • March 1, 2014 • 1 Comment

The 2014 NFL Draft is being discussed as one of the best and deepest classes of prospects to enter the League in the last ten years. Much of the focus has been on the wide receivers and quarterbacks, while the offensive tackles and a few pass rushers have also stolen some headlines.

But when it comes to the running backs, the consistent theme is similar to what it was last year: There’s no-one special in this class, and no prospect worthy of a first round selection.

Last year this time, players like Eddie Lacy, Gio Bernard and Andre Ellington were all considered good prospects, but none of them garnered first-round attention and seemed to have more questions about their game than answers.

Here we are a year later, and all three running backs have become critical pieces to their respective teams. Eddie Lacy turned out to be exactly what the Packers offense was missing, on his way to the NFL’s offensive rookie of the year. Gio Bernard and Andre Ellington added big plays and explosive ability to the Bengals and Cardinals. Bruce Arians recently came out and said that Arizona was going to build their offense around Ellington…not bad for a player that was part of a running back class that lacked first-round talent.

Sound familiar?

This year’s draft class is a lot like the 2013 group. In fact, it’s deeper than last year’s was and will provide clubs with a chance to not only add good depth to their running back group, but also a shot to land a potential starter.

I’ve broken down some of this year’s running backs in tiers below. And while there might not be a first rounder again in 2014, I wouldn’t be shocked if we end up with a cluster of backs that make significant contributions as rookies.

Tier One: Potential to Start in Rookie Season

Carlos Hyde, Ohio State

Hyde is the top back available in the 2014 NFL Draft, and he’s the player that has the best potential to become the “Eddie Lacy” of this class. Not only does Hyde bring the same physical style that Lacy did last year, he’s also quicker than you’d expect a man with his measurables to be. While he won’t be a player that rips off long touchdown runs, he is going to be a workhorse with the potential to pop off a 25 yard run from time to time. He’s likely to go at or near the top of the second round, and he’d make a good fit for a team like the Giants who are still searching for a feature back to take some pressure off of Eli Manning.

Bishop Sankey, Washington

Sankey enters the 2014 NFL Draft with varying opinions, as some draft analysts like him as the top back available, while others don’t have him in their top five. FRG considers Sankey to have just as much upside as Hyde, albeit with a different body type and overall running style. The best thing about Sankey is that he can do everything well; he as good vision, good burst through the hole, can make a man miss or lower his shoulder for extra yardage, and he’s capable of staying on the field on third downs both in pass pro and as a viable receiving target. He’s not a “pretty” runner, but he’s very effective. A team like the Cleveland Browns could gobble him up in round two and let him roll from day one.

Tier Two: Significant Part of RBBC

Lache Seastrunk, Baylor

Arguably the most explosive of all the running back prospects, Seastrunk has the look of a player that will add much needed juice to a running game that is lacking big plays in big moments. He’s not quite big enough to be considered a feature back, but he certainly has the potential to serve in that “Gio Bernard” role next year. Seastrunk would be a good fit for the Jets, who continue to search for a running back that can bring some excitement to their offense and their fanbase.

Marion Grice, ASU

Marion Grice is a prospect that is flying under the radar a bit within the NFL Draft community, but I have a hunch that he’s a little more highly regarded within NFL front offices. Grice is a jack of all trades; He’ll use his patience and vision to slash the defense in the running game while also showcasing soft hands and the ability to setup his blocks in the screen game. He’s not a “wow”‘guy, but a lot like Matt Forte, he’ll simply produce when given a chance. I’d like to see him in a situation like Jacksonville, where he’d likely earn a decent role early in his rookie season with a chance to become their running back of the future.

Charles Sims, West Virginia

Simms is a prospect that many draft analysts like, and for good reason. He’s a lot like Grice in that he does just about everything well. And whie I think he’s a little tight in the hips and has some limits to his long-term upside, he’s a guy who is ready to contribute early and often in 2014. Simms could be a fit for the Bears, as they should be looking to add more youth behind Forte that can come in and ease his load right away.

Tier Three: Late-round Upside

James Wilder, Florida State

If you’ve followed FRG on twitter, then you’re not surprised to see Wilder’s name here. Entering the 2013 college football season, Wilder was a guy that FRG projected to elevate his game to tier one status. Well, he didn’t, and his poor showing at the Scouting Combine has hurt his value even more. But as a football player and pure runner, he’s one of our favorites in this this class. He has a rare combination of balance and power, similar to the likes of a guy like Marshawn Lynch. His best football is ahead of him, and if he lands in the right situation (say, Houston or Baltimore), he’s the kind of guy that could end up being one of the bigger day three steals.

Rajion Neal, Tennessee

An extremely underrated prospect, Neal is a hard running slasher who has enough pop in his legs and behind his pads to be an effective back in the NFL. He has some qualities like a smaller Demarco Murray, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him be a late round option for the Titans and become guy that works his way into a surprising role in 2014.

Tre Mason, Auburn

Tre Mason’s value seemed to spike around the time of the National Championship, and he’s done nothing to hurt himself since. That said, he’s still a player with a day three skill set, as he’s more active than effective behind the line of scrimmage and is an unknown commodity in pass protection. Mason is a good back, though, who runs with a toughness level that exceeds his size. He’s a contagious player, as he seems to always make plays in spurts and generates momentum for himself and his teammates. I could see him being a nice later-round selection for the Lions, capable of serving as Reggie Bush’s immediate backup and serving in a role similar to Jacquizz Rodgers (Falcons.)

There are a bunch of other good runners in the 2014 NFL Draft that aren’t listed above. Players like Devonta Freeman (Florida State),Antonio Andrews (Western Kentucky) and Storm Johnson (UCF) are all going to get drafted and contribute early in their careers.

No matter what the draft pundits say about the running back position and its lack of overall value as it pertains to today’s NFL, the bottom line is that it’s the one position that can make the quickest, and in some cases, the most significant, impact to teams that are close to having a complete offense.

Don’t be fooled if none of these guys go in round one. A year from now, we’ll likely be valuing this year’s class of runners much like last year’s productive and exciting group. http://firstroundgrade.com/2014/03/01/2014-nfl-draft-talent-at-the-running-back-position/

I do think it is important to recognize that the draft position for RB has been declining for the past decade or so until finally last season the draft saw no 1st round RB. This may be the new normal, so making comparisons by draft position in the past may need adjustment to this new normal.

Parts of the evaluation for RBs should include some assessment of the players vision, pass catching ability, pass protection ability. Just looking at their raw numbers from one data point of time is not going to reveal much when your margins are so arbitrary as pointed out by HS.

Pass protection is usually key to early play for a rookie RB in todays NFL. There are exceptions to this of course, for example Ellington was reportedly poor at pass protection despite being a talented RB. I thought that would prevent him from getting early playing time, they still found a role for him and those reports I read may not have been as accurate as I thought they were at the time.

Being able to catch the ball makes a RB somewhat match up proof as they will be involved in the offense even if they are playing catch up.

I think the following RB could be useful starters in the NFL if they get the opportunity-

Bishop Sankey

Carlos Hyde

Charles Sims

Isaiah Crowell

Lache Seastrunk

Tre Mason

Devonta Freeman

Andre Williams

Terrance West

Other RB who might get the opportunity but I think have holes in their game that may lead to them only being part time players-

Kadeem Carey

DeAnthony Thomas

Storm Johnson

Marion Grice

Jeremy Hill

Antonio Andrews

James White

Jerick McKinnon

 

[jurb26]

I've said it for a while now but I'll say it again. R. Neal is criminally underrated in this RB class.

 

[tdmills]

I've said it for a while now but I'll say it again. R. Neal is criminally underrated in this RB class.

I'm with you on him.

 

[Brewtown]

I think Seastrunk and Bishop tested really well outside the straight line 40 yard dash.

It sort of depends on what you're looking at. Sankey was a good weight for his height (30.8 BMI), but his overall weight was just 209 pounds which is still on the light side. The only backs lighter than that who went in the 1st round during this time period were Felix Jones, David Wilson, Reggie Bush, Jahvid Best, CJ Spiller, and Chris Johnson. Felix is the only guy there who didn't run a 4.3X or faster. At 4.44 he was still half a tenth faster than Sankey's 4.49. You can make a pretty good case that, despite his good jumps, he'd need to be a bit heavier and/or faster to have a good shout for going in the 1st.

Seastrunk's jumps were not just good, but insanely good. 11'2" is a better broad jump than any of the 27 RBs from the group. For a guy who's only 5'9" to jump like that shows a freaky level of athleticism. His 41.5" vertical was basically off the charts as well. Here's the problem when it comes to talking about him as a realistic 1st round candidate: He's not all that big and his 40 times weren't all that fast. He has a decent enough weight/height ratio with a 29.6 BMI, but he only weighs 201 pounds. That's lower than everybody besides Best, Bush, Johnson, and Spiller. All guys with ELITE track speed. In contrast, Seastrunk ran a 4.51 in the 40. His career best in the 100m is "just" 10.81 (as a high school senior) compared to 10.42 for Reggie (as a high school junior), 10.36 for Jahvid (as a high school senior), and 10.29 for Spiller (at Clemson). Basically, he's fast but he doesn't have that next level of unreal speed.

None of this means these guys can't become solid NFL contributors, but strictly in terms of their chances of getting into the first round of the draft, these are probably deal-breakers.

Isn't having good weight for your height a good situation?

Lower center of gravity (tougher to bring down).

Hiding behind massive o-linemen.

Yet still powerful....

I thought that being short for a RB was not a disadvantage??

 

[Biabreakable]

Scouting the RBs: Rajion Neal, Tennessee by Bryan Perez, Director of College Scouting • December 11, 2013

Rajion Neal, the starting running back for the Tennessee Volunteers, enters the 2014 NFL Draft process with very little hype or exposure. His name is not one of the first ones mentioned with the top senior runners, and it likely won’t be until an all-star game or the NFL Scouting Combine before that changes (if at all.)

Neal has had a very nice 2013 season. With 1,124 yds rushing and 12 TDs, Neal surpassed 2,000 career yards for the Volunteers and had the best rushing season that the team has seen since 2009. He also managed to set a career high with 27 receptions this year.

While not a flashy runner, Neal is a name to keep an eye on as we inch toward the NFL Draft.

Below is FRG Scouting’s analysis of Rajion Neal.

NAME: Rajion Neal

Position: Running Back

Ht: 5’10″

Wt: 210

40: 4.55 (EST)

Strengths: Power, Feet, Vision

Weaknesses: Hips, Long Speed, Wiggle

Rajion Neal is a well-built prospect for the running back position…He carries his roughly 210lbs well, with a thick lower half that generates very good power when he runs…A one-cut runner, Neal is able to locate and hit the hole quickly, displaying good initial burst and quick enough feet to get to top speed in a hurry…Runs with good pad level, delivering a jolt on contact that sends a message to defenders…Has the feet, pad level, vision and leg drive to be an effective inside runner in the NFL…On outside running plays, Neal can push the edge, one-cut and go…Ideally suited for a ZBS on the next level…Average pass receiver out of the backfield, though he failed to make much happen after the catch…Willing pass protector who flashes toughness when taking on the blitz.

Neal is tight in the hips and won’t break off many big runs by cutting back against the grain… Lacks the kind of wiggle to make many defenders miss in the open field…Does not possess long speed and will be a guy that gains yards in 10 yard chunks…Will need a hole to be successful in NFL; Does not have the quickness or flexibility to make much happen on his own…Had a nagging ankle injury in 2012 and was reportedly banged up throughout 2013; potential durability issues.

On the next level, Neal projects as a tough, physical, between the tackles runner that will pop off the occasional 20 yard run. If in the right system (ZBS), Neal has the potential to be the kind of runner that gets rolling during a game and whose momentum will be tough to stop. His feet are quick and his running style is powerful, and when he gets moving north/south, he’s an impact player. That said, he is a really tight runner who won’t be able to take advantage of what’s not there. Rajion Neal reminds me of a smaller version of Demarco Murray (Dallas Cowboys) in how his lack of wiggle limits his maximum upside. I view Neal as a Day 3 selection who, if behind a solid offensive line, has a chance to develop into a relied-upon part of a team’s rushing attack.

GRADE: 6.4 (Low-4th, High-5th) http://firstroundgrade.com/2013/12/11/scouting-the-rbs-rajion-neal-tennessee/http://firstroundgrade.com/grading-scale/

The thing is however that it took awhile, including during his senior season to play well. He was inconsistent according to his coaches.

The 5'11", 212-pound tailback may seem like he's overachieving, but he's really just finally living up to expectations. Prior to this season, Neal has been too timid and has also struggled with his field vision.

He was criticized by Derek Dooley and his staff for inconsistency, and when Jones arrived, the new coach also wondered aloud through preseason drills why Neal's physical attributes weren't translating into prime production.

Enter new running backs coach Robert Gillespie. Once he arrived, his tough-love approach may not have been exactly what Neal wanted. But it certainly has worked.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1805238-tennessee-football-story-behind-rajion-neals-resurgence-under-butch-jones

Games http://www.utsports.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/2013-2014/plyr_20.html

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Scouting the RBs: Rajion Neal, Tennessee by Bryan Perez, Director of College Scouting • December 11, 2013

Rajion Neal, the starting running back for the Tennessee Volunteers, enters the 2014 NFL Draft process with very little hype or exposure. His name is not one of the first ones mentioned with the top senior runners, and it likely won’t be until an all-star game or the NFL Scouting Combine before that changes (if at all.)

Neal has had a very nice 2013 season. With 1,124 yds rushing and 12 TDs, Neal surpassed 2,000 career yards for the Volunteers and had the best rushing season that the team has seen since 2009. He also managed to set a career high with 27 receptions this year.

While not a flashy runner, Neal is a name to keep an eye on as we inch toward the NFL Draft.

Below is FRG Scouting’s analysis of Rajion Neal.

NAME: Rajion NealPosition: Running BackHt: 5’10″Wt: 21040: 4.55 (EST)

Strengths: Power, Feet, VisionWeaknesses: Hips, Long Speed, Wiggle

Rajion Neal is a well-built prospect for the running back position…He carries his roughly 210lbs well, with a thick lower half that generates very good power when he runs…A one-cut runner, Neal is able to locate and hit the hole quickly, displaying good initial burst and quick enough feet to get to top speed in a hurry…Runs with good pad level, delivering a jolt on contact that sends a message to defenders…Has the feet, pad level, vision and leg drive to be an effective inside runner in the NFL…On outside running plays, Neal can push the edge, one-cut and go…Ideally suited for a ZBS on the next level…Average pass receiver out of the backfield, though he failed to make much happen after the catch…Willing pass protector who flashes toughness when taking on the blitz.

Neal is tight in the hips and won’t break off many big runs by cutting back against the grain… Lacks the kind of wiggle to make many defenders miss in the open field…Does not possess long speed and will be a guy that gains yards in 10 yard chunks…Will need a hole to be successful in NFL; Does not have the quickness or flexibility to make much happen on his own…Had a nagging ankle injury in 2012 and was reportedly banged up throughout 2013; potential durability issues.

On the next level, Neal projects as a tough, physical, between the tackles runner that will pop off the occasional 20 yard run. If in the right system (ZBS), Neal has the potential to be the kind of runner that gets rolling during a game and whose momentum will be tough to stop. His feet are quick and his running style is powerful, and when he gets moving north/south, he’s an impact player. That said, he is a really tight runner who won’t be able to take advantage of what’s not there. Rajion Neal reminds me of a smaller version of Demarco Murray (Dallas Cowboys) in how his lack of wiggle limits his maximum upside. I view Neal as a Day 3 selection who, if behind a solid offensive line, has a chance to develop into a relied-upon part of a team’s rushing attack.

GRADE: 6.4 (Low-4th, High-5th) http://firstroundgrade.com/grading-scale/

The thing is however that it took awhile, including during his senior season to play well. He was inconsistent according to his coaches.

The 5'11", 212-pound tailback may seem like he's overachieving, but he's really just finally living up to expectations. Prior to this season, Neal has been too timid and has also struggled with his field vision.

He was criticized by Derek Dooley and his staff for inconsistency, and when Jones arrived, the new coach also wondered aloud through preseason drills why Neal's physical attributes weren't translating into prime production.

Enter new running backs coach Robert Gillespie. Once he arrived, his tough-love approach may not have been exactly what Neal wanted. But it certainly has worked.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1805238-tennessee-football-story-behind-rajion-neals-resurgence-under-butch-jones

Games http://www.utsports.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/2013-2014/plyr_20.html

Do non combine invites get drafted?

Seems like a practice squad guy at best

 

[Biabreakable]

Lots of players who did not attend the combine end up becoming starters in the NFL. I am not sure how frequently they are drafted however, I would expect most of the draft picks actually were invited to the combine. Sometimes players miss the invite for one reason or another though.

I do not have a strong opinion about Neal or very many of the rookie players as yet to eliminate any of them. But there are things about Neal I do not like that I would want to see confirmation of a draft pick before taking a longer look at him. I am mainly concerned about his work ethic, how he practices and things like that perhaps being a barrier to him at the next level.

I would love to hear Jurb tdmills or others who may think Neal or any other RB is starting caliber in the NFL? Which RB are those? Who isn't?

I am going to try to be open minded to any of them that make a roster. Especially if they are drafted.

 

[jurb26]

I would love to hear Jurb tdmills or others who may think Neal or any other RB is starting caliber in the NFL? Which RB are those? Who isn't?

I don't necessarily know if Neal, is going to translate into a starting RB or not. I think he's extremely underrated because I see list after list ranking rookie RBs and he's absent from nearly every one. That to me is insanity. What I like about him is his feet, vision, pad level, power and balance. To me, feet and vision are 2 of the most essential attributes of any RB. He hits the hole hard and always seems to fall forward because of his great playing leverage. He picks thru traffic very well because of his quick feet and ability to burst through cracks. He's not a burner and not a high wiggle guy who will look good in the open field. He's better in tight spaces IMO. He's a willing and able blocker but a body catcher in the receiving game. His Auburn tape is highly impressive if you ask me. If you want to get a glimpse of what he can do, start there. That game is what put him squarely on my radar actually. I don't really like the Murray comp above. Murray has more exaggerated cuts and lateral suddenness while Neal has much chopper and quicker feet. I liken Neal to a poor mans Portis, not as explosive but similar in running style.

 

[Biabreakable]

Ok thanks jurb I will try to watch the Auburn game.

I noted he did not do much against Oregon or Florida early on in the season (good defenses) but then improved against South Carolina and Alabama later on in the season.

Auburn ranked 97th in rushing defense last season. Not very good. Florida and Alabama were both ranked in the top 5 and closer to the level of competition he will be facing in the NFL I think than Auburn.

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/1040/p1

That is the thing about an inconsistent player. He put up some good runs for a short run of games. I would have liked to see him do more as a junior than he did and then he got less total carries as a senior than he did as a junior.

On some of the highlights I watched he gets very good blocking so does not have to do much except run full speed which he is good at getting to top speed on those runs, I just am not sure those blocks will be there as often or if he can make the sideline against NFL defenses like I saw him do on a few of those long runs.

I favor players who make defenders miss, so something not much in his favor for me. The information about his vision seems conflicting as well.

 

[Biabreakable]

This is a year old.

ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay took to Twitter on Friday to discuss a few draft prospects, among them happened to be Vols senior running back Rajion Neal.

Neal will enter his final season with the Vols as the teams lead running back, as he did in 2012.

Last season Neal rushed for 708 yards on 156 carries, for a 4.5 yards/carry average. He also caught 19 passes for 149 yards, including four receiving touchdowns.

Neal will be sharing carries with junior Marlin Lane, who was recently reinstated to the team, and redshirt freshman running back Alden Hill, who had a great spring with Lane out.

Here’s what McShay had to say about Neal and his outlook for this season and also as a potential NFL player.

Todd McShay ✔ @McShay13
FollowRB Rajion Neal (@Vol_Football) is an interesting prospect. Excited to see how he plays in 2013. Versatility in pass game is a BIG plus.

11:55 AM - 7 Jun 2013

Todd McShay ✔ @McShay13
FollowRB Neal shares some ON FIELD similarities with Isaiah Pead (Bucs). Pead is a bit quicker but Neal is a bit bigger/stronger.

11:57 AM - 7 Jun 2013
Todd McShay ✔ @McShay13
FollowIf Neal (@Vol_Football) protects the ball and holds up physically, he could be surprisingly productive(even w/ M. Lane back from suspension)

12:00 PM - 7 Jun 2013

It’s ironic that McShay compared Neal to Isaiah Pead (who actually plays for the Rams, a mistake McShay corrected), because Pead of course was Butch Jones’ running back at Cincinnati. I’m not sure if McShay had that in mind when he made the comparison, but regardless it bodes well for Neal and his outlook for 2013.

As McShay mentioned, even with Lane in the picture (and Alden Hill for that matter), Neal should still be in line for a big season. His game suits Butch Jones’ offense very well, and his receiving skills will take him even further.

The Vols running game is nothing to sleep on this year, and could surprise some folks.http://allfortennessee.com/2013/06/07/todd-mcshay-dishes-on-vols-rb-rajion-neal/

 

[jurb26]

Ok thanks jurb I will try to watch the Auburn game.

I noted he did not do much against Oregon or Florida early on in the season (good defenses) but then improved against South Carolina and Alabama later on in the season.

Auburn ranked 97th in rushing defense last season. Not very good. Florida and Alabama were both ranked in the top 5 and closer to the level of competition he will be facing in the NFL I think than Auburn.

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/1040/p1

That is the thing about an inconsistent player. He put up some good runs for a short run of games. I would have liked to see him do more as a junior than he did and then he got less total carries as a senior than he did as a junior.

On some of the highlights I watched he gets very good blocking so does not have to do much except run full speed which he is good at getting to top speed on those runs, I just am not sure those blocks will be there as often or if he can make the sideline against NFL defenses like I saw him do on a few of those long runs.

I favor players who make defenders miss, so something not much in his favor for me. The information about his vision seems conflicting as well.

I'm not sure what you didn't like in the Bama game. I saw that game and saw all things I like about him. He had few carriers is all because Bama blew that out. He had 13 carries, 70 yds and a TD vs Bama. I didn't watch the Oregon game. It's worth noting that Tenn was awful last year. So, it's not surprising he would have a tougher time vs. 2 of the best teams in the country. He isn't a guy who will create on his own a lot. He has good burst to the hole and great vision but will need a crease to be effective. His oline was severely overmatched in the Bama game. I'd assume it was much the same in the Oregon game. You need to be able to look beyond that. That is the reason college stats are pretty meaningless.