Why Wasn't Case Keenum Viewed As An NFL Prospect? (1 Viewer)

[Anarchy99]

Keenum has played on 6 teams in 9 seasons in the NFL and has made 62 starts (going 27-35). Since I have been researching numbers for some of the rookie prospects this year, I discovered the crazy college numbers Keenum put up at Houston . . .

- Most career passing yards: 19,217 (second is 17,072)
- Most career passing TD: 155 (second is 142)
- Most total offense in a career: 20,114 (second is 16,910)
- Most career completions: 1,546 (second most is 1,403)
- Three 5,000 yard passing seasons (three of the Top 16 seasons and 2 in the Top 5)
- Three seasons with 44 or more TD passes (3 of the Top 23 seasons)
- Responsible for 178 career TD (second most is 153)
- Top 10 in Career Passing Efficiency at the time he finished his college career (since passed by many others)
- Six games 500+ passing yards, 15 over 400, 39 over 300 (all FBS / D-I records)
- Single game high of 9 TD passes. 12 games with 5 or more TD passes.
- Nine games with a QB rating of 200+ with a high of 269.2

After putting up those insane numbers, Keenum didn't even get drafted and signed as an UDFA with the Texans.

I can't say that I remember much about him in college 10+ years ago other than seeing his name scroll across the ticker with some crazy game day numbers and Sports Center highlights. Did people just think his game wouldn't translate at the NFL level? Does anyone remember the knock on him and why no one really considered him a legit NFL prospect?
 

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Because Houston is kind of like Texas Tech* and Hawaii - they put up "video game on easy" numbers versus average competition with schemes intended to maximize passing game numbers. But their quarterbacks really aren't that skilled. 

*Of course, Mahomes changed THAT narrative. At least for one time.

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

*see Colt Brennan*

 

[Gatorman]

Because Houston is kind of like Texas Tech* and Hawaii - they put up "video game on easy" numbers versus average competition with schemes intended to maximize passing game numbers. But their quarterbacks really aren't that skilled. 

*Of course, Mahomes changed THAT narrative. At least for one time.

Exactly:  Same thing with Urban Meyer QBs getting dinged after Alex Smith didn't take over the world when He came in.  It's part of Fields Ohio State bias I think as well.

 

[rockaction]

Echoing what Andy said. Houston was notorious for video game stats from their QBs. To the best of my recollection, many years in December had an afternoon bowl game with Houston taking part and their quarterback who was on the cusp of statistical greatness. People then tended to overlook the QB from a pro perspective.

 

[Major]

I think I was the one who started the Case Keenum thread here way back when he was a distant Houston backup.  I urged folks to pick him up.  I got laughed at being a Houston homer, etc.  That was a fun ride early on and he really produced.  

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

I prefer to call him by the name John Elway gave him.  Case Keesum.  #5 in the playbook but forever #1 in our hearts. 

 

[Anarchy99]

Because Houston is kind of like Texas Tech* and Hawaii - they put up "video game on easy" numbers versus average competition with schemes intended to maximize passing game numbers. But their quarterbacks really aren't that skilled. 

*Of course, Mahomes changed THAT narrative. At least for one time.

I get that certain schools have reputations for putting up empty calorie passing totals against invisible defenses. But Houston had other QBs over the years that went to the NFL prior to Keenum . . . Kevin Kolb (Pick 36), Chuck Clements (Pick 191), David Klingler (Pick 6), and Andre Ware (Pick 7).

The Southwest/Big 12 Conference had multiple QB drafted in that general timeframe, who all played against the same lousy defenses:

- RGIII from Baylor
- Vince Young, Colt McCoy, and Chris Simms from Texas
- Seneca Wallace and Sage Rosenfels from Iowa State
- Josh Freeman from Kansas State
- Sam Bradford, Landry Jones, and Josh Heupel from Oklahoma
- Andy Dalton from TCU
- B.J. Symons and Kliff Kingsbury from Texas Tech
- Geno Smith, Pat White, and Marc Bulger from West Virginia
- Ryan Tannehill, Stephen McGee, Reggie McNeal from Texas A&M
- Blaine Gabbert from Missouri

That sort of gets to the point that I was asking . . . why wee all those considered pro prospects while Keenum wasn't even give a look see as even a late round pick?

 

[Major]

I get that certain schools have reputations for putting up empty calorie passing totals against invisible defenses. But Houston had other QBs over the years that went to the NFL prior to Keenum . . . Kevin Kolb (Pick 36), Chuck Clements (Pick 191), David Klingler (Pick 6), and Andre Ware (Pick 7).

The Southwest/Big 12 Conference had multiple QB drafted in that general timeframe, who all played against the same lousy defenses:

- RGIII from Baylor
- Vince Young, Colt McCoy, and Chris Simms from Texas
- Seneca Wallace and Sage Rosenfels from Iowa State
- Josh Freeman from Kansas State
- Sam Bradford, Landry Jones, and Josh Heupel from Oklahoma
- Andy Dalton from TCU
- B.J. Symons and Kliff Kingsbury from Texas Tech
- Geno Smith, Pat White, and Marc Bulger from West Virginia
- Ryan Tannehill, Stephen McGee, Reggie McNeal from Texas A&M
- Blaine Gabbert from Missouri

That sort of gets to the point that I was asking . . . why wee all those considered pro prospects while Keenum wasn't even give a look see as even a late round pick?

Combination of size and arm strength.  Think he was also coming back from injury.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Timmy Chang, Graham Harrell, and Colt Brennan all had gaudy numbers before him and did nothing. Philly (& Ari?) gave another Houston QB a shot and Kevin Kolb was awful. Size doesn’t seem an issue AFAIK but he didn’t have a big arm. A guy can have so so production but if he’s 6’3”+ with a cannon, even if inaccurate or lacking touch, they’ll sink years into development. Smaller guys or average arm better be good from Go, shorter leash.

 

[-OZ-]

I get that certain schools have reputations for putting up empty calorie passing totals against invisible defenses. But Houston had other QBs over the years that went to the NFL prior to Keenum . . . Kevin Kolb (Pick 36), Chuck Clements (Pick 191), David Klingler (Pick 6), and Andre Ware (Pick 7).

The Southwest/Big 12 Conference had multiple QB drafted in that general timeframe, who all played against the same lousy defenses:

- RGIII from Baylor
- Vince Young, Colt McCoy, and Chris Simms from Texas
- Seneca Wallace and Sage Rosenfels from Iowa State
- Josh Freeman from Kansas State
- Sam Bradford, Landry Jones, and Josh Heupel from Oklahoma
- Andy Dalton from TCU
- B.J. Symons and Kliff Kingsbury from Texas Tech
- Geno Smith, Pat White, and Marc Bulger from West Virginia
- Ryan Tannehill, Stephen McGee, Reggie McNeal from Texas A&M
- Blaine Gabbert from Missouri

That sort of gets to the point that I was asking . . . why wee all those considered pro prospects while Keenum wasn't even give a look see as even a late round pick?

Keenum played in conference USA.  You might not agree, but the big XII generally has a much better reputation for producing talent.

I do agree that some team probably should have taken him the in 7th or so, but he didn't have the physical makeup or look nearly as impressive as the other guys you mentioned. 

 

[need2know]

keenum was really good a few years ago with the vikings....   besides that pretty blah

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I get that certain schools have reputations for putting up empty calorie passing totals against invisible defenses. But Houston had other QBs over the years that went to the NFL prior to Keenum . . . Kevin Kolb (Pick 36), Chuck Clements (Pick 191), David Klingler (Pick 6), and Andre Ware (Pick 7).

The Southwest/Big 12 Conference had multiple QB drafted in that general timeframe, who all played against the same lousy defenses:

- RGIII from Baylor
- Vince Young, Colt McCoy, and Chris Simms from Texas
- Seneca Wallace and Sage Rosenfels from Iowa State
- Josh Freeman from Kansas State
- Sam Bradford, Landry Jones, and Josh Heupel from Oklahoma
- Andy Dalton from TCU
- B.J. Symons and Kliff Kingsbury from Texas Tech
- Geno Smith, Pat White, and Marc Bulger from West Virginia
- Ryan Tannehill, Stephen McGee, Reggie McNeal from Texas A&M
- Blaine Gabbert from Missouri

That sort of gets to the point that I was asking . . . why wee all those considered pro prospects while Keenum wasn't even give a look see as even a late round pick?

Looks like an entire list of QBs who ended up being either mediocre or outright bad.  Gee, I can’t imagine why this conference doesn’t get more respect for producing QBs.

 

[Anarchy99]

Keenum played in conference USA. 

I do agree that some team probably should have taken him the in 7th or so, but he didn't have the physical makeup or look nearly as impressive as the other guys you mentioned. 

Thanks for pointing out the Conference USA element. That was back in an era when conferences reorg'ed and realigned seemingly year to year. So scratch my list of drafted QBs from above and go with this one instead for other guys drafted within his conference +/- when he played in it.

Joe Webb from UAB
Byron Leftwich and Chad Pennington from Marshall
Jeff Kelly from Southern Mississippi
Jordan Palmer from UTEP
Blake Bortles from UCF
David Garrard from East Carolina
Chris Redman, Dave Ragone, Stefan Lefors from Louisville
B.J. Daniels from USF
Garrett Gilbert from SMU
J.P. Losman, Patrick Ramsey, and Shaun King from Tulane
James Kilian from Tulsa

Certainly not as distinguished names as my other list. But that's still 15 or 16 guys that played in the same conference from an 8-10 year period. Most of them weren't very notable and little more than footnotes, but one would think that Keenum deserved to be at least worthy of a flyer as a Day 3 draft pick.

 

[-OZ-]

Thanks for pointing out the Conference USA element. That was back in an era when conferences reorg'ed and realigned seemingly year to year. So scratch my list of drafted QBs from above and go with this one instead for other guys drafted within his conference +/- when he played in it.

Joe Webb from UAB
Byron Leftwich and Chad Pennington from Marshall
Jeff Kelly from Southern Mississippi
Jordan Palmer from UTEP
Blake Bortles from UCF
David Garrard from East Carolina
Chris Redman, Dave Ragone, Stefan Lefors from Louisville
B.J. Daniels from USF
Garrett Gilbert from SMU
J.P. Losman, Patrick Ramsey, and Shaun King from Tulane
James Kilian from Tulsa

Certainly not as distinguished names as my other list. But that's still 15 or 16 guys that played in the same conference from an 8-10 year period. Most of them weren't very notable and little more than footnotes, but one would think that Keenum deserved to at least worthy of a flyer as a Day 3 draft pick.

Agreed with the last part. 

But man, that list is horrendous.

 

[Anarchy99]

Looks like an entire list of QBs who ended up being either mediocre or outright bad.  Gee, I can’t imagine why this conference doesn’t get more respect for producing QBs.

I guess people don't really comprehend just ho many guys turn into absolute nobodies in the NFL. You can take a snap shot of any conference and most of the guys that were drafted will not have done much. That's because most guys that are drafted don't do much in the NFL. For example, here are all the QBs drafted from current configuration of 14 teams from the Big 10 since 2010:

Nate Sudfeld from Indiana
Jake Rudock from Michigan
Connor Cook and Kirk Cousins from Michigan State 
Dwayne Haskins, Cardale Jones, Terrelle Pryor from Ohio State
Trace McSorley and Christian Hackenberg from Penn State
Nate Stanley, C.J. Beathard, and Ricky Stanzi from Iowa
Tanner Lee from Nebraska
Clayton Thorson, Trevor Siemian, and Mike Kafka from Northwestern
Russell Wilson from Wisconsin

Basically, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, and a bunch of belly button lint. Does that mean teams shouldn't look at Big 10 QBs? Does that mean Justin Fields is a bust in waiting?
 

 

[Major]

keenum was really good a few years ago with the vikings....   besides that pretty blah

He was great when he replaced Schaub early on.  I remember him winning me a few games when no one expected anything from him.  

 

[Gally]

keenum was really good a few years ago with the vikings....   besides that pretty blah

If you watched the game he wasn't really that good.  He never hit his WR's in stride and since he had Thielen and Diggs they bailed him out a lot.  He was adequate but he left a lot on the table.  There were many times Diggs/Thielen were wide open and if he hits them in stride they gain 15-20 more yards but instead the pass is behind them or at their shoe tops so they have to sell out for the catch and got no YAC.  It was fine but not what it should have been.

 

[Anarchy99]

I looked up Keenum's PFF grades from year to year . . . (most recent to oldest):

44.7, 55.0, 70.0, 82.3, 58.9, 69.7, 54.7, 60.9

So other than 2017, he really hasn't been that productive. (PFF grades based on how each player performed when he played, so it's not a volume based evaluation.)

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I looked up Keenum's PFF grades from year to year . . . (most recent to oldest):

44.7, 55.0, 70.0, 82.3, 58.9, 69.7, 54.7, 60.9

So other than 2017, he really hasn't been that productive. (PFF grades based on how each player performed when he played, so it's not a volume based evaluation.)

Sounds like the NFL mostly had it right then.

 

[Foosball God]

*see Colt Brennan*

See Andre Ware

 

[Faust]

Bleacher Report was clearly not a fan of Case Keenum’s NFL prospects:

Case Keenum: Undrafted Quarterback Doesn't Have Talent to Compete in NFL (April 28, 2012)

Case Keenum: College Star Has Too Many Red Flags to Waste a Draft Pick on (April 25, 2012)

 

[dickey moe]

Because he's Case Keenum.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Exhibit "A" your honor. 

-This game was one of the true Miami fans all time favorites. The Houston Run n Shoot was being billed as the next big thing with David Klinger slinging it and he basically runs for his life all night long from just a base defense that doesn't blitz much at all majority of the night and the Canes run them out of Miami 40-10 on a Thursday night game with a HUGE walk up crowd and I mean a MOB showed up at the Orange Bowl as Vegas kept decreasing the odds to where Miami was only about a 7 point which at that time was unheard of when they were ranked #2 in the country and would go on to win their 4th National Championship in '91. 

The Cougars won like 10-11 games against nobody and the Canes of course thump 'em. But this plays on the bias you speak of with Case Keenum. 

 

[Ilov80s]

On top of what everyone else has said, he was small, had tiny hands, was unathletic and didn't have a great arm. I realize that also describes Baker Mayfield who went 1.01 but Baker played at a more respected school and system. I do think of Keenum was coming out now, he would get drafted in the late 2nd or early 3rd. The NFL is now more open to the idea that efficient QBs in spread college offenses can translate to the NFL and that not every NFL QB needs to be 6'4". 

 

[Soulfly3]

if this is a veiled shot at trey lance, i'm in. 

 

[Boston]

On top of what everyone else has said, he was small, had tiny hands, was unathletic and didn't have a great arm. I realize that also describes Baker Mayfield who went 1.01 but Baker played at a more respected school and system. I do think of Keenum was coming out now, he would get drafted in the late 2nd or early 3rd. The NFL is now more open to the idea that efficient QBs in spread college offenses can translate to the NFL and that not every NFL QB needs to be 6'4". 

Excellent point about timing...there was a time when many of these college QBs were square pegs in a round hole in the NFL but there is no doubt the college game and particularly offensive schemes have creeped into the NFL and they are figuring out how to successfully translate these QB skills to the pro game...that being said I still believe the most important thing for a young QB is playing for a high quality coach/organization, it is really tough to overcome being in a bad situation.

 

[Boston]

if this is a veiled shot at trey lance, i'm in. 

I hope it's not because it's not a good one...it's easy to see why Lance can make someone nervous but from a physical tools view they are not in the same ballpark.

 

[Iceman03]

Why wasn’t Anthony Gordon viewed as a good prospect last year? 
 

Honestly, if you’re not a top guy it seems pretty pointless to draft a QB. Sure, occasionally there is a Mark Brunell, Kurt Warner or Tom Brady but it’s such an infinitely small amount of QB’s that hit late. If they are Case Keenum they bounce all over the league before they even emerge as a capable backup. Most end up like Chase Daniel.

 

[Soulfly3]

I hope it's not because it's not a good one...it's easy to see why Lance can make someone nervous but from a physical tools view they are not in the same ballpark.

physically, of course not.