Musesboy
Footballguy
It seems that more players than ever have injury concerns this preseason. With less than two weeks to go, many of the positional battles are yet to be decided. RB handcuffs are commonly used by many owners, but is there a case for handcuffing certain WRs this year?
There are two strategies that I have considered.
The first is to draft both starting wide receivers on teams that have a strong passing game:
Harrison and Wayne are the obvious first choice pairing. I expect the Colts to increase their passing numbers this year. Partly due to the change at RB, and also due to the probability that they won't clinch home field advantage so early. I expect a shift towards the passing game and increased numbers for Manning, Harrison and Wayne. Winning at FF is largely about consistency. I would rather have steady production by owning those two, than have peaks and troughs from owning one and another top receiver.
Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh are also candidates for the same strategy, especially with Palmer looking like he will start the season.
It would be expensive to draft Fitzgerald and Boldin at the 2/3 turn. I am not going to do that in any league this year. Although it would have worked extremely well in 2005, I can't see the Cardinals throwing anywhere near as much this year. 670 passes was a freak occurrence. Even a fall to 550 passing attempts would see an 18% reduction, and both receivers could be in danger of falling out of the top 12. When Edge is factored in, the goal line threat should take away a few TDs from the passing game. That may be balanced out by Edge keeping the offense on the field longer of course. The real worry I have with the Cardinals' receivers is the QB situation. Warner has only started 27 of his last 64 games. Not many rookies are viable fantasy starters at QB, and Leinart missed all of training camp. The value of Fitzgerald and Boldin could plummet if Warner is hurt again and there is no way that I would want both on my team.
The other pairing that I would think about is Holt and Bruce. Now I am not suggesting that you base your season around starting these two. But Bruce is extremely good value and I like the idea of starting both if I am a Holt owner and my WR2 is on a bye or sidelined.
That leads me into my second strategy. Is there any value in looking at some of the productive receivers with injury issues, and targeting the WR2 late in the draft? Here are those that I would consider:
Terry Glenn - Ok, he's a viable starter in his own right, but his value would jump if TO's hammy injury lingered, or if he fell out of favor with the team again.
Michael Clayton - He is reportedly ready to contribute a lot more now that he is healthy again. Galloway stayed healthy last year and was a stud. Clayton has some value by himself and would be a possible top 12 receiver if Galloway went down.
Nate Burleson - Here is another receiver that disappointed last year. With Darrell Jackson's knee problems, Burleson could be a big contributor if Jackson were to miss time at any point in the season. Divisional games against the Rams, 49ers and Cardinals immediately provide six great matchups.
Kevin Curtis - I have already mentioned Bruce in the first section, but Curtis was a very good option when Bruce missed time last year. It could be worth grabbing both late in the draft.
Joe Jurevicius/Braylon Edwards - It could be worth grabbing both at WR4/5. One should see enough action to be a viable starter.
Mark Clayton - Not that Derrick Mason is much of an injury risk, but Clayton's value would be considerable if he were the main receiver with McNair throwing the football. I like what Clayton did at the end of 2005 and the Ravens should have a better passing threat this year. I like this as another possible handcuff.
Handcuffs should only see the field if the starting options are injured. So you are happy if they never see the field. But I feel that if you own one of the above WRs with injury issues, these guys could have more value than the WRs being drafted at a similar ADP.
Thoughts?
There are two strategies that I have considered.
The first is to draft both starting wide receivers on teams that have a strong passing game:
Harrison and Wayne are the obvious first choice pairing. I expect the Colts to increase their passing numbers this year. Partly due to the change at RB, and also due to the probability that they won't clinch home field advantage so early. I expect a shift towards the passing game and increased numbers for Manning, Harrison and Wayne. Winning at FF is largely about consistency. I would rather have steady production by owning those two, than have peaks and troughs from owning one and another top receiver.
Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh are also candidates for the same strategy, especially with Palmer looking like he will start the season.
It would be expensive to draft Fitzgerald and Boldin at the 2/3 turn. I am not going to do that in any league this year. Although it would have worked extremely well in 2005, I can't see the Cardinals throwing anywhere near as much this year. 670 passes was a freak occurrence. Even a fall to 550 passing attempts would see an 18% reduction, and both receivers could be in danger of falling out of the top 12. When Edge is factored in, the goal line threat should take away a few TDs from the passing game. That may be balanced out by Edge keeping the offense on the field longer of course. The real worry I have with the Cardinals' receivers is the QB situation. Warner has only started 27 of his last 64 games. Not many rookies are viable fantasy starters at QB, and Leinart missed all of training camp. The value of Fitzgerald and Boldin could plummet if Warner is hurt again and there is no way that I would want both on my team.
The other pairing that I would think about is Holt and Bruce. Now I am not suggesting that you base your season around starting these two. But Bruce is extremely good value and I like the idea of starting both if I am a Holt owner and my WR2 is on a bye or sidelined.
That leads me into my second strategy. Is there any value in looking at some of the productive receivers with injury issues, and targeting the WR2 late in the draft? Here are those that I would consider:
Terry Glenn - Ok, he's a viable starter in his own right, but his value would jump if TO's hammy injury lingered, or if he fell out of favor with the team again.
Michael Clayton - He is reportedly ready to contribute a lot more now that he is healthy again. Galloway stayed healthy last year and was a stud. Clayton has some value by himself and would be a possible top 12 receiver if Galloway went down.
Nate Burleson - Here is another receiver that disappointed last year. With Darrell Jackson's knee problems, Burleson could be a big contributor if Jackson were to miss time at any point in the season. Divisional games against the Rams, 49ers and Cardinals immediately provide six great matchups.
Kevin Curtis - I have already mentioned Bruce in the first section, but Curtis was a very good option when Bruce missed time last year. It could be worth grabbing both late in the draft.
Joe Jurevicius/Braylon Edwards - It could be worth grabbing both at WR4/5. One should see enough action to be a viable starter.
Mark Clayton - Not that Derrick Mason is much of an injury risk, but Clayton's value would be considerable if he were the main receiver with McNair throwing the football. I like what Clayton did at the end of 2005 and the Ravens should have a better passing threat this year. I like this as another possible handcuff.
Handcuffs should only see the field if the starting options are injured. So you are happy if they never see the field. But I feel that if you own one of the above WRs with injury issues, these guys could have more value than the WRs being drafted at a similar ADP.
Thoughts?
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Seriously, I love the Engram move. However, he's got value without D-Jax, and people are sleeping on it again this year. I got laughed at last year for taking him late "is he still playing?", and a few weeks in people realized he was.
