Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Week 17 was not so hot once again, as 2-3 isn't a strong finish. Still, 80-64-2 on the regular season (55.6%, or 5 out of every 9) is a decent average. That's all history though and it won't help you this week. So what do I think for the first four playoff games?
First of all, I will break a rule and PICK all of the games - but I won't STAR all of them. Several will want my opinion on all of the games, so I'll give them - but that doesn't mean that a friendly wager on the outcome is a great idea. So - each game will have two picks (spread and over/under) but some won't get rated for a play. Yep, a change in format...
Here we go:
SATURDAY - Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals
Current Lines: Atlanta +1, Over/Under 50.5
This game has "Shootout" written all over it. Arizona will WANT to run, believe it or not, but once Matt Ryan hits Roddy White for a TD and Michael Turner scores as well it will be a steep climb for Arizona to keep up and the track meet will be on. Boldin, Fitzgerald and Breaston will have five catches each and 75 or more yards as Kurt Warner throws for 300 yards, but it won't be enough. Atlanta will win in a shootout 34-27.
Picks: Atlanta +1 (2 stars)
Over 50.5 (2 stars)
SATURDAY - Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers
Current Lines: Indy -1, Over/Under 49.5 to 50.5
So many ways to look at this one, and that's what concerning to me. The Colts are red hot, but they took Week 17 off and it is questionable if they will be able to just step in and crank up the offense again. The defense is the bigger concern as Bob Sanders is far from 100% and the LBs are make-shift without Gary Brackett. That's not a good combo to stop the run. Colts fans may not have to fear Antonio Gates who may not be active, but Tomlinson may not be the scariest RB in gold and blue. Look out for Darren Sproles to continue his free agency audition for 2009 as he tries to push his team into the next round. As for the other side of the ball, Philip Rivers is pissed off about most everything - Denver, Jay Cutler, not making the Pro Bowl - but he's checked all of those boxes (except the Pro Bowl, but he'll go in Favre's absence). Regardless, he has to step up and use Vincent Jackson and Sproles effectively because his defense has struggled against the pass - not good news for a team staring at Peyton Manning. The good news for SD is that the Colts are patching their offensive line with several backups, so that may be enough for the Chargers to steal this game.
On the surface you can point to the Colts' victory over the Chargers 23-20 in Week 12. So much has happened in six weeks since then that it is hardly a fair comparison. I honestly see this game going to either side, but the Chargers may hold the slight advantage. I think the Colts can do it, but I'm not confident at all in this selection. No stars on either side. I'll say the Chargers 30-27, but I could see the game 21-20 or 23-21 either way - which is hardly a good play in either direction. Just sit back and watch this one.
Picks: Chargers +1 (0 stars)
Over 49.5 (0 stars)
SUNDAY - Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
Current Lines: Baltimore -3, Over/Under 37.5 to 38
This one is pretty sweet. Baltimore is consistently underrated this year (don't believe me? check their record against the spread this year - 12-4 - tied with the Giants and Steelers for first). That's a strong confirmation of what I've believed all year - that the Ravens are underrated and underappreciated for what they've done week after week this season. This week continues that trend as I cannot for the life of me find a matchup that favors Miami. Maybe you could say their placekicker, but he's unproven. He has a bigger leg than Stover, but no real playoff experience. Kick returner? Maybe. Ginn is explosive, but Baltimore is darn good on coverage. The only advantages I'd give them on the skill levels would be at tailback, TE and QB - which sounds like a landslide, until you factor in the Baltimore defense which should knock all three down several pegs. These two got together in Week 7, which is a lifetime ago yet you have to like Baltimore winning 27-13. In that game Chad Pennington nearly topped 300 yards but Miami couldn't run the ball. McGahee and Mason blasted them with 105 and 87 yards each and a TD - and remember that Ray Lewis and McGahee have strong Miami ties.
Now - forget all that. Tell me how Miami wins this game. Tell me how they get 17 points - I just don't see it. Devone Bess is the X factor here as the Dolphins really weren't using him back in October and Camarillo is now out. The Wildcat is not going to matter against an inspired Baltimore defense and Flacco won't be rattled. McGahee and McClain will get 35-40 combined touches and Ray Rice will also give it a go for 5-10 more. That'll be the difference as I see Baltimore dominating both sides of the ball. It may not be pretty as I expect Chad Pennington to make it competitive, but if the Ravens start to pressure him and force some turnovers this could get away from Miami in a hurry. I think it is a 10 point win for Baltimore, 20-10. You would think I'd like the under here, but I really don't. I could see Chad getting a TD or two and Flacco having to answer, which would put it as a 31-20 type game, but I really don't see the Ravens dropping this one.
Picks: Baltimore -3 (3 Stars)
Under 38 (0 stars)
SUNDAY - Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings
Current Lines: Philly -3, Over/Under 41 to 41.5
This one is certainly striking a chord with the Shark Pool this week as it is the biggest pre-game thread, and with good reason. This could be one of the most entertaining games and it features two marquee running backs in the NFL and in the fantasy football world. Adrian Peterson plays his first postseason game while Brian Westbrook returns to the playoffs once again. Both players will factor in heavily into the gameplan for both clubs, but they won't be the entire deciding factors. The Eagles run defense vs. Peterson will be the matchup that everyone wants to see, but the real story could be how they do against the short passes to TE Vishante Shiancoe and also Chester Taylor. The young Philly linebackers will be tested as Akeem Jordan and Stewart Bradley will be pushed to perform at a very high level.
For Minnesota, I expect that Williams Wall to be only at 50% at best as I don't think Pat will play. That's a blow to the Vikings despite how the Eagles look on paper for the full season. Guess what - over the course of the past four victories for Philadelphia, they've run almost as much as they have thrown the ball. If Pat is out expect the Eagles to return to that mixture and call at least 15 rushing plays in the first half as they work the ball to both Westbrook and Correll Buckhalter. That dedication to the ground game, regardless of the effectiveness in moving the ball on its own, should open up passing lanes for Kevin Curtis and Jason Avant. Avant and Hank Baskett (who had a cup of coffee with Childress' Vikings after the 2007 draft) could be sleeper plays along with TE Brent Celek. McNabb has played inspired football since being benched, and the defense has stepped up as well.
If Philadelphia plays like they have of late (aside from the abysmal Washington performance), this game should be Philadelphia's to lose - which they should not. If they played 10 times, I expect the Eagles to win six or seven of those - but the problem is that this is a best of one series. Anything could happen, so I'm going with the 60-70% odds of Philly winning. I believe that the Eagles will know Brad Childress more than he thinks and that the advantage lies with Andy Reid and Jim Johnson, not the other way around. Philadelphia 27, Minnesota 20. If the Eagles defense steps up even more, it could be 27-13, which hurts the Over / Under so I'm passing on that one.
And yes, I like the Eagles as my favorite team, wich as most Philadelphia fans know makes it painfully hard to pick them.
Picks: Eagles -3 (2 stars)
Over 41 (0 stars)
SUMMARY:
ZERO STAR GAMES (NO PICK)
Chargers +1 (0 stars)
Chargers / Colts - Over 49.5 (0 stars)
Baltimore / Miami - Under 38 (0 stars)
Eagles / Vikings - Over 41 (0 stars)
*ONE STAR GAMES*
NONE.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Atlanta +1 (2 stars)
Atlanta / Arizona - Over 50.5 (2 stars)
Eagles -3 (2 stars)
***THREE STAR GAMES***
Baltimore -3 (3 Stars)
Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
Lastly, the record:
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Week 17 was not so hot once again, as 2-3 isn't a strong finish. Still, 80-64-2 on the regular season (55.6%, or 5 out of every 9) is a decent average. That's all history though and it won't help you this week. So what do I think for the first four playoff games?
First of all, I will break a rule and PICK all of the games - but I won't STAR all of them. Several will want my opinion on all of the games, so I'll give them - but that doesn't mean that a friendly wager on the outcome is a great idea. So - each game will have two picks (spread and over/under) but some won't get rated for a play. Yep, a change in format...
Here we go:
SATURDAY - Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals
Current Lines: Atlanta +1, Over/Under 50.5
This game has "Shootout" written all over it. Arizona will WANT to run, believe it or not, but once Matt Ryan hits Roddy White for a TD and Michael Turner scores as well it will be a steep climb for Arizona to keep up and the track meet will be on. Boldin, Fitzgerald and Breaston will have five catches each and 75 or more yards as Kurt Warner throws for 300 yards, but it won't be enough. Atlanta will win in a shootout 34-27.
Picks: Atlanta +1 (2 stars)
Over 50.5 (2 stars)
SATURDAY - Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers
Current Lines: Indy -1, Over/Under 49.5 to 50.5
So many ways to look at this one, and that's what concerning to me. The Colts are red hot, but they took Week 17 off and it is questionable if they will be able to just step in and crank up the offense again. The defense is the bigger concern as Bob Sanders is far from 100% and the LBs are make-shift without Gary Brackett. That's not a good combo to stop the run. Colts fans may not have to fear Antonio Gates who may not be active, but Tomlinson may not be the scariest RB in gold and blue. Look out for Darren Sproles to continue his free agency audition for 2009 as he tries to push his team into the next round. As for the other side of the ball, Philip Rivers is pissed off about most everything - Denver, Jay Cutler, not making the Pro Bowl - but he's checked all of those boxes (except the Pro Bowl, but he'll go in Favre's absence). Regardless, he has to step up and use Vincent Jackson and Sproles effectively because his defense has struggled against the pass - not good news for a team staring at Peyton Manning. The good news for SD is that the Colts are patching their offensive line with several backups, so that may be enough for the Chargers to steal this game.
On the surface you can point to the Colts' victory over the Chargers 23-20 in Week 12. So much has happened in six weeks since then that it is hardly a fair comparison. I honestly see this game going to either side, but the Chargers may hold the slight advantage. I think the Colts can do it, but I'm not confident at all in this selection. No stars on either side. I'll say the Chargers 30-27, but I could see the game 21-20 or 23-21 either way - which is hardly a good play in either direction. Just sit back and watch this one.
Picks: Chargers +1 (0 stars)
Over 49.5 (0 stars)
SUNDAY - Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
Current Lines: Baltimore -3, Over/Under 37.5 to 38
This one is pretty sweet. Baltimore is consistently underrated this year (don't believe me? check their record against the spread this year - 12-4 - tied with the Giants and Steelers for first). That's a strong confirmation of what I've believed all year - that the Ravens are underrated and underappreciated for what they've done week after week this season. This week continues that trend as I cannot for the life of me find a matchup that favors Miami. Maybe you could say their placekicker, but he's unproven. He has a bigger leg than Stover, but no real playoff experience. Kick returner? Maybe. Ginn is explosive, but Baltimore is darn good on coverage. The only advantages I'd give them on the skill levels would be at tailback, TE and QB - which sounds like a landslide, until you factor in the Baltimore defense which should knock all three down several pegs. These two got together in Week 7, which is a lifetime ago yet you have to like Baltimore winning 27-13. In that game Chad Pennington nearly topped 300 yards but Miami couldn't run the ball. McGahee and Mason blasted them with 105 and 87 yards each and a TD - and remember that Ray Lewis and McGahee have strong Miami ties.
Now - forget all that. Tell me how Miami wins this game. Tell me how they get 17 points - I just don't see it. Devone Bess is the X factor here as the Dolphins really weren't using him back in October and Camarillo is now out. The Wildcat is not going to matter against an inspired Baltimore defense and Flacco won't be rattled. McGahee and McClain will get 35-40 combined touches and Ray Rice will also give it a go for 5-10 more. That'll be the difference as I see Baltimore dominating both sides of the ball. It may not be pretty as I expect Chad Pennington to make it competitive, but if the Ravens start to pressure him and force some turnovers this could get away from Miami in a hurry. I think it is a 10 point win for Baltimore, 20-10. You would think I'd like the under here, but I really don't. I could see Chad getting a TD or two and Flacco having to answer, which would put it as a 31-20 type game, but I really don't see the Ravens dropping this one.
Picks: Baltimore -3 (3 Stars)
Under 38 (0 stars)
SUNDAY - Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings
Current Lines: Philly -3, Over/Under 41 to 41.5
This one is certainly striking a chord with the Shark Pool this week as it is the biggest pre-game thread, and with good reason. This could be one of the most entertaining games and it features two marquee running backs in the NFL and in the fantasy football world. Adrian Peterson plays his first postseason game while Brian Westbrook returns to the playoffs once again. Both players will factor in heavily into the gameplan for both clubs, but they won't be the entire deciding factors. The Eagles run defense vs. Peterson will be the matchup that everyone wants to see, but the real story could be how they do against the short passes to TE Vishante Shiancoe and also Chester Taylor. The young Philly linebackers will be tested as Akeem Jordan and Stewart Bradley will be pushed to perform at a very high level.
For Minnesota, I expect that Williams Wall to be only at 50% at best as I don't think Pat will play. That's a blow to the Vikings despite how the Eagles look on paper for the full season. Guess what - over the course of the past four victories for Philadelphia, they've run almost as much as they have thrown the ball. If Pat is out expect the Eagles to return to that mixture and call at least 15 rushing plays in the first half as they work the ball to both Westbrook and Correll Buckhalter. That dedication to the ground game, regardless of the effectiveness in moving the ball on its own, should open up passing lanes for Kevin Curtis and Jason Avant. Avant and Hank Baskett (who had a cup of coffee with Childress' Vikings after the 2007 draft) could be sleeper plays along with TE Brent Celek. McNabb has played inspired football since being benched, and the defense has stepped up as well.
If Philadelphia plays like they have of late (aside from the abysmal Washington performance), this game should be Philadelphia's to lose - which they should not. If they played 10 times, I expect the Eagles to win six or seven of those - but the problem is that this is a best of one series. Anything could happen, so I'm going with the 60-70% odds of Philly winning. I believe that the Eagles will know Brad Childress more than he thinks and that the advantage lies with Andy Reid and Jim Johnson, not the other way around. Philadelphia 27, Minnesota 20. If the Eagles defense steps up even more, it could be 27-13, which hurts the Over / Under so I'm passing on that one.
And yes, I like the Eagles as my favorite team, wich as most Philadelphia fans know makes it painfully hard to pick them.
Picks: Eagles -3 (2 stars)
Over 41 (0 stars)
SUMMARY:
ZERO STAR GAMES (NO PICK)
Chargers +1 (0 stars)
Chargers / Colts - Over 49.5 (0 stars)
Baltimore / Miami - Under 38 (0 stars)
Eagles / Vikings - Over 41 (0 stars)
*ONE STAR GAMES*
NONE.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Atlanta +1 (2 stars)
Atlanta / Arizona - Over 50.5 (2 stars)
Eagles -3 (2 stars)
***THREE STAR GAMES***
Baltimore -3 (3 Stars)
Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
Lastly, the record:
Most people don't realize that the biggest difference is Miami getting Ferguson back at NT. Also, the crowd is going to be insane. The Miami fans are jacked up!
Minnesota's defense is underrated, and I don't see the Eagles doing much. Jeff's calls for the Eagles to run 15 times in the first half sounds like a surefire way to gain 45 yards and a seven point halftime deficit. Only one team has beaten the Vikings by running the ball, and that was the Packers all the way back in week one. You have to pass to beat the Vikings or get a bunch of turnovers; Minnesota's 10-3 in games where they've turned the ball over three times or less. In those three losses, one was the Indy game where Manning threw 42 pases, GB in week 1 where they had a 76 yard punt return and a good (but not dominant) rushing performance and Tampa Bay (one offensive touchdown and the leading rusher was 20/53). You beat Minnesota by scoring on defense or special teams and forcing turnovers, not by running roughshod over them. Pat is out, but the Eagles simply aren't a good enough running team to beat the Vikings that way. They need the short passing game to work and for Akers to hit his four FGs. I think this game is a toss-up.
Great job Raider Nation.
