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Will be in Vegas, help me pick a long shot SB winner (1 Viewer)

Righetti

Righetti

Footballguy
Usually throw a couple of bucks on a long shot in February. Came close the one year the Panthers lost in the Super Bowl, had a couple of other decent picks but obviously there aren't that many long shots that ever win

Will bet $100, kind of leaning Falcons at 50-1

NFL Future Odds

ODDS TO WIN 2015 SUPER BOWL L (2/7/16)

Team Odds

Seattle Seahawks 13/2

New England Patriots 8/1

Green Bay Packers 10/1

Denver Broncos 10/1

Dallas Cowboys 20/1

Philadelphia Eagles 20/1

Indianapolis Colts 20/1

San Francisco 49ers 25/1

Detroit Lions 30/1

New Orleans Saints 30/1

Cincinnati Bengals 30/1

Pittsburgh Steelers 35/1

Baltimore Ravens 35/1

St. Louis Rams 40/1

Arizona Cardinals 40/1

Houston Texans 45/1

San Diego Chargers 45/1

New York Giants 45/1

Miami Dolphins 45/1

Kansas City Chiefs 50/1

Carolina Panthers 50/1

Atlanta Falcons 50/1

Minnesota Vikings 60/1

Chicago Bears 75/1

Buffalo Bills 75/1

Cleveland Browns 75/1

Washington Redskins 150/1

New York Jets 150/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 200/1

Tennessee Titans 300/1

Jacksonville Jaguars 300/1

Oakland Raiders 300/1

Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag

Updated Sun, Jan. 18, 10:30 PM

 
I like to pick one from each conference and hope for a no-lose super bowl.

Miami Dolphins 45/1

Arizona Cardinals 40/1

:IBTL:

 
Righetti said:
Usually throw a couple of bucks on a long shot in February. Came close the one year the Panthers lost in the Super Bowl, had a couple of other decent picks but obviously there aren't that many long shots that ever win

Will bet $100, kind of leaning Falcons at 50-1

NFL Future Odds

ODDS TO WIN 2015 SUPER BOWL L (2/7/16)

Team Odds

Seattle Seahawks 13/2

New England Patriots 8/1

Green Bay Packers 10/1

Denver Broncos 10/1

Dallas Cowboys 20/1

Philadelphia Eagles 20/1

Indianapolis Colts 20/1

San Francisco 49ers 25/1

Detroit Lions 30/1

New Orleans Saints 30/1

Cincinnati Bengals 30/1

Pittsburgh Steelers 35/1

Baltimore Ravens 35/1

St. Louis Rams 40/1

Arizona Cardinals 40/1

Houston Texans 45/1

San Diego Chargers 45/1

New York Giants 45/1

Miami Dolphins 45/1

Kansas City Chiefs 50/1

Carolina Panthers 50/1

Atlanta Falcons 50/1

Minnesota Vikings 60/1

Chicago Bears 75/1

Buffalo Bills 75/1

Cleveland Browns 75/1

Washington Redskins 150/1

New York Jets 150/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 200/1

Tennessee Titans 300/1

Jacksonville Jaguars 300/1

Oakland Raiders 300/1

Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag

Updated Sun, Jan. 18, 10:30 PM
Click to expand...
1) as a Bengals fan I'm absolutely stunned that their odds are shorter than the Steelers or Ratbirds. Not sure if 35/1 is long enough but I think the Ratbirds aren't a bad buy there. The only thing is the AFC North out-of-division schedule is brutal.

2) Um, I noticed the odds say "updated 1/18" - are these really current prices?

3) The Vikings at 60/1 is intriguing to me - a 2nd year in the Zimmer system, a developing young QB - they should be able to find a decent enough RB to replace ADP and grab a young receiver. At that price I like.

4) Chargers at 45/1 seems like a value as I expect the Broncos to fall back.

-QG

 
Buffalo at 75-1 is mouth watering. One of the best young defenses in football. They shut down Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers in back to back weeks late in the season. Neither QB passed for more than 185 yards. Neither one had a TD pass. Both threw two picks each. And you add Rex Ryan to that and they are flat out dangerous. You won't get a better ROI than that.

I also love the Ravens at 35-1 and like the Giants at 45-1.

 
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Cards at 40-1 if Palmer is healthy.

at 300-1, i think the Jags should be slotted several spots higher, like in Browns territory.

 
My husband and I did this a couple of years ago when were in Vegas. We actually split the money and put down 5 20 dollar bets. We had the Steelers, Patriots, Eagles and Green Bay and the long shot was the Texans or something.

I would do Steelers, Baltimore, Pats, Rams and Green Bay.

 
Among the real longshots, I like the Bills at 75-1.

I certainly don't think they'll win, and their lack of a QB is totally crippling to their chances.

But a QB seems to be literally the ONLY thing between them and becoming an instant contender. And over the course of a whole off season, finding one player is at least a real possibility...even if it's not clear at the moment who that could be.

Ryan led a team with a young Mark Sanchez pretty deep, after all. And this team is built as well as that one, IMO.

 
Freelove said:
Among the real longshots, I like the Bills at 75-1.

I certainly don't think they'll win, and their lack of a QB is totally crippling to their chances.

But a QB seems to be literally the ONLY thing between them and becoming an instant contender. And over the course of a whole off season, finding one player is at least a real possibility...even if it's not clear at the moment who that could be.

Ryan led a team with a young Mark Sanchez pretty deep, after all. And this team is built as well as that one, IMO.
Click to expand...
I don't think BUF has the Oline / RB right now for the running game that the Jets had at the time. I love Fred, but he's getting pretty old as a primary RB. Spiller has been hurt since he's had the opportunity to take the lead back role, and appears to be best in a light usage change of pace. I don't think Dixon is the answer, either.

2009 Jets led the league in rushing. 2010 version was top 5. Their run/pass ratio was nearly 2:1. Ryan will be great with that defense, and that will keep them in games, but his biggest task will be to build that offense.

 
Vikings at 60-1 could be good. ADP back(?), Bridgewater/Johnson another year of development. Good defensive core too.

 
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Steelers 35-1

Ravens 35-1

Chargers 45-1

Panthers 50-1

Bills 75-1

Maybe split that 100 up on those 4 AFC teams. Best value there to me seems like the Steelers.

 
ghostguy123 said:
Steelers 35-1

Ravens 35-1

Chargers 45-1

Panthers 50-1

Bills 75-1

Maybe split that 100 up on those 4 AFC teams. Best value there to me seems like the Steelers.
Click to expand...
I like the Panthers at 50-1 as well. Amazing that they are worse odds than NO and same as Atlanta. After the Panthers OL gelled and Newton seemed healthier (lots due to the OL not letting him get killed as much), they beat NO 41-10 and Atlanta 34-3 and they looked far better than both teams. Not sure if Atlanta will improve a lot, but NO is getting worse and has salary cap issues. I think Carolina will be better next year and has a lot more potential than anyone else in the NFC South to make some noise in the playoffs.

I think the one thing I like about the Panthers over a lot of the other long shots is that I think they are definitely the top team in their division. Winning a division is one step towards getting byes/home field which help a lot. The Bills aren't better than the Pats yet, etc.

 
Ravens almost beat the Super Bowl champ with their 6th string CB. They and the Steelers, both with Super Bowl winning QBs, are attractive at 35-1

 
General Tso said:
Buffalo at 75-1 is mouth watering. One of the best young defenses in football. They shut down Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers in back to back weeks late in the season. Neither QB passed for more than 185 yards. Neither one had a TD pass. Both threw two picks each. And you add Rex Ryan to that and they are flat out dangerous. You won't get a better ROI than that.

I also love the Ravens at 35-1 and like the Giants at 45-1.
Click to expand...
who is their qb?

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
General Tso said:
Buffalo at 75-1 is mouth watering. One of the best young defenses in football. They shut down Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers in back to back weeks late in the season. Neither QB passed for more than 185 yards. Neither one had a TD pass. Both threw two picks each. And you add Rex Ryan to that and they are flat out dangerous. You won't get a better ROI than that.

I also love the Ravens at 35-1 and like the Giants at 45-1.
Click to expand...
who is their qb?
Click to expand...
At 75-1 who cares.

Dilfer had a ring. Never know, some dark horse qb could play average for them and then anything can happen.

 
Too lazy to research now, but the smartest longshot $ almost always involves teams that had a poor fumble recovery rate & a lousy record in 1score games the year before - those '04 Panthers fit that bill iirc.

Road Warriors said:
Freelove said:
Among the real longshots, I like the Bills at 75-1.

I certainly don't think they'll win, and their lack of a QB is totally crippling to their chances.

But a QB seems to be literally the ONLY thing between them and becoming an instant contender. And over the course of a whole off season, finding one player is at least a real possibility...even if it's not clear at the moment who that could be.

Ryan led a team with a young Mark Sanchez pretty deep, after all. And this team is built as well as that one, IMO.
Click to expand...
I don't think BUF has the Oline / RB right now for the running game that the Jets had at the time. I love Fred, but he's getting pretty old as a primary RB. Spiller has been hurt since he's had the opportunity to take the lead back role, and appears to be best in a light usage change of pace. I don't think Dixon is the answer, either.

2009 Jets led the league in rushing. 2010 version was top 5. Their run/pass ratio was nearly 2:1. Ryan will be great with that defense, and that will keep them in games, but his biggest task will be to build that offense.
Click to expand...
There is definitely a major gap in the two OLs. Bills Guards are abysmal, will probably be priority #1 in the draft assuming there's no QB they like. On the other hand, Glenn & Wood are good players coming off career worst years and not over the hill, so it's conceivable that one good player could make them worlds better as a unit next year.

I don't really buy the RBs point though. I know Thomas Jones was a fan favorite, but the 'replacement value' to use a sabermetric term, among non-elite RBs is pretty insignificant, even on rushing teams; a point by which the 2010 Jets are one of many examples.

 
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General Tso said:
Buffalo at 75-1 is mouth watering. One of the best young defenses in football. They shut down Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers in back to back weeks late in the season. Neither QB passed for more than 185 yards. Neither one had a TD pass. Both threw two picks each. And you add Rex Ryan to that and they are flat out dangerous. You won't get a better ROI than that.

I also love the Ravens at 35-1 and like the Giants at 45-1.
Click to expand...
Agree with Buffalo/Rex - See the Jets the same way tho at 150-1...

Bowles will fill the back end of the D with $$$$ and cut sloppy penalties/mistakes... If either coach gets above average QB play and stays healthy, who knows.

I know, pipe dream but, I'm in for 150-1 !!!

 
ATL - Get a couple OL and let Quinn work with the defense. With Ryan, they could easily win the division.

BUF is the best of the very longshots, but will need to win a lot of games 4-3.

 
I think Buffalo is a pretty good AFC choice. Good young D, good coach. Dangerous if they make the playoffs.

Panthers are my NFC choice. That division is a crapshoot, but they play good football sometimes.

 
:homer: pick here but I'm going to say the Colts @20/1.

They get the NFC South, their division is still weak, and they get the Broncos, Steelers, and Pats. Colts taking baby steps forward in the playoff success and next steps is the Super Bowl. They have cap space and with a good draft, anything is possible with Luck.

 
Panthers seem like the furthest playoff team so...them and Lions

Calvin was hurt in 2014. In 2015, he's gonna show Jones, Beckham, and Brown that he's the man

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
General Tso said:
Buffalo at 75-1 is mouth watering. One of the best young defenses in football. They shut down Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers in back to back weeks late in the season. Neither QB passed for more than 185 yards. Neither one had a TD pass. Both threw two picks each. And you add Rex Ryan to that and they are flat out dangerous. You won't get a better ROI than that.

I also love the Ravens at 35-1 and like the Giants at 45-1.
Click to expand...
who is their qb?
Click to expand...
Mark Sanchez.

 
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The more I look at it the more I like the Bills and Panthers. If it was me betting I would go with the Pats/ your favorite team, Ravens, Bills, Panthers and falcons.

 
stbugs said:
ghostguy123 said:
Steelers 35-1

Ravens 35-1

Chargers 45-1

Panthers 50-1

Bills 75-1

Maybe split that 100 up on those 4 AFC teams. Best value there to me seems like the Steelers.
Click to expand...
I like the Panthers at 50-1 as well. Amazing that they are worse odds than NO and same as Atlanta. After the Panthers OL gelled and Newton seemed healthier (lots due to the OL not letting him get killed as much), they beat NO 41-10 and Atlanta 34-3 and they looked far better than both teams. Not sure if Atlanta will improve a lot, but NO is getting worse and has salary cap issues. I think Carolina will be better next year and has a lot more potential than anyone else in the NFC South to make some noise in the playoffs.

I think the one thing I like about the Panthers over a lot of the other long shots is that I think they are definitely the top team in their division. Winning a division is one step towards getting byes/home field which help a lot. The Bills aren't better than the Pats yet, etc.
Click to expand...
Not so fast. I think this div is Atlanta's to lose next year. That terrible defense even improves to number 20 under their new coach, and they're going to be very dangerous.

 
There are a lot of good choices based on those payouts.

I can see spreading out some money on about 10 of them and just rising it out. I wouldn't take anything with less than a 20-1 payout though.

Colts 20-1

Lions 30-1

Steelers 35-1

Ravens 35-1

Cardinals 40-1

Chargers 45-1

Giants 45-1

Panthers 50-1

Bills 75-1

Spread the money around so that the payout on whatever you win ends up being about 5-1 of your total combined wagers. I would say I would be happy to take 5-1 odds on one team from that list winning it all, or at the very least for one of them to get to the super bowl where a hedge could be in play.

 
Righetti said:
Usually throw a couple of bucks on a long shot in February. Came close the one year the Panthers lost in the Super Bowl, had a couple of other decent picks but obviously there aren't that many long shots that ever win

Will bet $100, kind of leaning Falcons at 50-1

NFL Future Odds

ODDS TO WIN 2015 SUPER BOWL L (2/7/16)

Team Odds

Seattle Seahawks 13/2

New England Patriots 8/1

Green Bay Packers 10/1

Denver Broncos 10/1

Dallas Cowboys 20/1

Philadelphia Eagles 20/1

Indianapolis Colts 20/1

San Francisco 49ers 25/1

Detroit Lions 30/1

New Orleans Saints 30/1

Cincinnati Bengals 30/1

Pittsburgh Steelers 35/1

Baltimore Ravens 35/1

St. Louis Rams 40/1

Arizona Cardinals 40/1

Houston Texans 45/1

San Diego Chargers 45/1

New York Giants 45/1

Miami Dolphins 45/1

Kansas City Chiefs 50/1

Carolina Panthers 50/1

Atlanta Falcons 50/1

Minnesota Vikings 60/1

Chicago Bears 75/1

Buffalo Bills 75/1

Cleveland Browns 75/1

Washington Redskins 150/1

New York Jets 150/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 200/1

Tennessee Titans 300/1

Jacksonville Jaguars 300/1

Oakland Raiders 300/1

Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag

Updated Sun, Jan. 18, 10:30 PM
Click to expand...
At those odds, I'd go Saints / 49ers. Both those teams had disappointing season but have decent enough talent. I'd lean towards Saints over 49ers though.

 
At 10-1 I would be betting Packers all day. They are now a complete team and will be returning every core player (Bulaga/Cobb will be re-signed).

 
Righetti posts about long shots and to me that doesn't mean teams in the top-12. To me those are expected playoff teams, and any expected playoff team has a pretty decent shot at winning a Super Bowl. Teams at 35-1 and under are too easy to jump on. If I'm thinking long shot, it has to be someone significantly outside of that.

I agree with Righetti that ATL at 50-1 looks good as a long shot. A strong enough offense with a very good QB and stud WR, an expected upgrade at RB, an OC in K Shanahan who s/b an upgrade, a new HC in Dan Quinn who should markedly improve the defense. Maybe most importantly, a very winnable division. Once in the playoffs anything can happen. Do I think they will win the Super Bowl? No, they are a long shot. But long shot with a legit chance. Panthers at 50-1 also look good with a solid defense and a dynamic QB. Bills 75-1 and Vikings 60-1 would be my other choices. Bills have one of the best defenses in the league and that can carry a team a long way, and I think they upgrade at QB before the season begins rather than go with Manuel. With MIN, Bridgewater is the real deal and has some weapons. Those would be my four choices if I'm looking for a long shot, with the order being ATL, CAR, BUF, MIN.

 
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