Will Drew Brees make the HOF? (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

I'm not looking at the normative question of should Brees make the HOF, and obviously discussion of that is premature until his career ends. But I'm thinking the "will he" question -- is pretty interesting today. Taking into account any future possibility -- injury, a SB victory, his career following the typical path for a player of his ability -- do you think he's more likely than not to make the HOF?

In my view, I now think he's more likely than not.

 

[Ghost Rider]

It goes without saying that most will vote 'yes' in light of his 6 TD performance yesterday.

 

[Chaka]

If Warren Moon is in then, barring injury, it will be hard to keep Brees out.

 

[Sammy Traveller]

Brees needs to get to the Super Bowl first. How amazing would it be if his Saints played the Chargers for all the marbles?

 

[Ghost Rider]

Brees needs to get to the Super Bowl first. How amazing would it be if his Saints played the Chargers for all the marbles?

That would make for a fun two weeks for the media leading up to the game, but the Saints aren't going anywhere until they prove they can play well on the road. Yeah, they looked awesome yesterday, but it was against Detroit, and at home. Both the team and Brees struggled on the road last season, so how they do on the road this year will dictate how far they go this season.

 

[Chase Stuart]

It goes without saying that most will vote 'yes' in light of his 6 TD performance yesterday.

I guess so, but it just seems that when people talk about current QBs that will be in the HOF they say:FavreManningBradyMaybe Warner, maybe McNabb. I think Brees' name is rarely floated, I guess because he's still in the prime of his career. But I think he now has a great shot to make it one day.With a great year this season (certainly off to a fine start), he'll have 4 great seasons ('04, '06, '08, '09) to his name. That puts him close to a HOF lock.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Brees needs to get to the Super Bowl first. How amazing would it be if his Saints played the Chargers for all the marbles?

He certainly doesn't *need* to get to the SB first to make the HOF. It would help, though.

 

[MCguidance]

I dont think he needs to make or even win a SB.

He is in the prime of his career.

Has a great offensive scheme that will benefit him for years.

Has had a below average defense, leading to more throwing opportunities.

Underwhelming running attack, which feeds into the above reasons.

I think if he stays healthy he could be one of the league's most prolific passers when done. Not saying the best, or better than Manning/Brady, etc, but that he will be a prolific passer. This alone may be enough to lead him to Canton.

 

[jon_mx]

It goes without saying that most will vote 'yes' in light of his 6 TD performance yesterday.

I guess so, but it just seems that when people talk about current QBs that will be in the HOF they say:FavreManningBradyMaybe Warner, maybe McNabb. I think Brees' name is rarely floated, I guess because he's still in the prime of his career. But I think he now has a great shot to make it one day.With a great year this season (certainly off to a fine start), he'll have 4 great seasons ('04, '06, '08, '09) to his name. That puts him close to a HOF lock.

Brees should make it way before McNabb. Brees looks like the best QB in th game right now and that is saying alot considering Manning and Brady are still around......Farve, Brady and Manning are easy locks for HOF. Warner is about a 95% chance. Brees could use an MVP or two to really nail down a spot though. The MVP race is between Brees and ADP this year, not much doubt about it. Those two have everything lining up to post some incredible numbers.

 

[Jason Wood]

It's a question that is worth asking for sure. The pace he's on right now is beyond obscene.

 

[Zoomanji]

He's better than Namath

 

[Chaka]

Brees needs to get to the Super Bowl first. How amazing would it be if his Saints played the Chargers for all the marbles?

Warren Moon never made the Super Bowl. Through eight seasons Brees surpasses Moon in every significant measurable (yards, TDs, INTs & W-L%).If he keeps it up I see no reason why Brees can't make the HoF.

 

[schooner44]

I'm not quite sure how he wouldn't make the HOF considering his staggering stats.

 

[Chaka]

I'm not quite sure how he wouldn't make the HOF considering his staggering stats.

Injury.I think he needs 4-5 more seasons of solid production to cement his place in the HoF (although 2-3 more at this ridiculous pinball-like level of production might do the trick).

 

[Sinrman]

Just a shame that the first few years of his career were on a bad, bad team... he could have been setting some records.

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

To me, even if he doesn't lead his team all the way, he's the Dan Fouts of this era. Big numbers in a wide open offense, bad D, no titles. Dan was a no-brainer. Brees will be too, assuming a couple more years of production.

 

[Doug B]

I'm not looking at the normative question of should Brees make the HOF, and obviously discussion of that is premature until his career ends. But I'm thinking the "will he" question -- is pretty interesting today. Taking into account any future possibility -- injury, a SB victory, his career following the typical path for a player of his ability -- do you think he's more likely than not to make the HOF?

In my view, I now think he's more likely than not.

I predict that he will as things stand. Might be one of those guys who gets in on stats rather than titles, but Brees is on the right trajectory.If he retired today ... pretty sure he'd be conclusively left out, though.

 

[JuSt CuZ]

We all say how good Brady is....but he wasnt a standout statisticly until Moss showed up....So what would Brees do with a guy like Moss!!!!

Brees best QB in the game BAR NONE....yes BAR NONE!!!

 

[Doug B]

That would make for a fun two weeks for the media leading up to the game, but the Saints aren't going anywhere until they prove they can play well on the road.

Need to slice & dice numbers ... but for whatever reason, the Saints have been stronger on the road over the last decade of regular seasons or so. They seem to play down to weak opponents at home a lot (yesterday was even kind of an example of that).Now, to be more specific about it, the Saints may have to prove they can play effective cold-weather offense to have a shot of going deep in the playoffs (of course, gotta get there first!). I think they can do fine playing at Arizona or TB, say. But can they produce playing in Green Bay or New York? Very valid question.

 

[Tau837]

It goes without saying that most will vote 'yes' in light of his 6 TD performance yesterday.

I guess so, but it just seems that when people talk about current QBs that will be in the HOF they say:

Favre

Manning

Brady

Maybe Warner, maybe McNabb. I think Brees' name is rarely floated, I guess because he's still in the prime of his career. But I think he now has a great shot to make it one day.

With a great year this season (certainly off to a fine start), he'll have 4 great seasons ('04, '06, '08, '09) to his name. That puts him close to a HOF lock.

Well, there are reasons why those players are mentioned and Brees isn't:
Favre has all the records, 3 MVPs, a Super Bowl championship, and another Super Bowl appearance.
Warner has regular season statistics comparable to Brees, but blows Brees away in the postseason, including 3 Super Bowl appearances and 1 championship... plus 2 MVPs.
Manning at age 32 is already top 8 in numerous passing statistics and stands a good chance of surpassing Favre there... plus he has a Super Bowl championship and 3 MVPs.
Brady has one of the best single seasons ever and 3 Super Bowl championships.I think it is terribly premature to ask about Brees at this point. He's got one 1st team All Pro selection, 0 MVPs, and 0 Super Bowl appearances. His highest rank in compiled statistics is #37 in completions. But he's only 29 years old. If he keeps it up long enough, especially if he wins a Super Bowl and/or an MVP or two, he'll have a good chance.

Check back in 2-3 years.

 

[CalBear]

He's more likely to wind up in the Pro Bowl and with All-Pros now that he's established as one of the game's best. He'll need a few more Pro Bowls and probably an All-Pro or two. He'll need to either win a Super Bowl or two, or get into the top 10 or so in yardage (41K yards) and TDs (275).

Will Brees manage more than 15K yards in the rest of his career (he's at 26,258 coming into the year) and 107 TDs (he's at 168)? Seems extremely likely barring injury.

 

[CalBear]

Right now, the comparable on Brees is Drew Bledsoe. Bledsoe is #5 in yardage and #13 in TDs, with four Pro Bowls and no All-Pros. He led the league in passing yardage twice, and had a 98-95 record as a starter.

Brees will have to finish up his career better than Bledsoe did to make it--I don't think Bledsoe has a chance. I do expect that Brees will do better.

 

[Chase Stuart]

It goes without saying that most will vote 'yes' in light of his 6 TD performance yesterday.

I guess so, but it just seems that when people talk about current QBs that will be in the HOF they say:

Favre

Manning

Brady

Maybe Warner, maybe McNabb. I think Brees' name is rarely floated, I guess because he's still in the prime of his career. But I think he now has a great shot to make it one day.

With a great year this season (certainly off to a fine start), he'll have 4 great seasons ('04, '06, '08, '09) to his name. That puts him close to a HOF lock.

Well, there are reasons why those players are mentioned and Brees isn't:
Favre has all the records, 3 MVPs, a Super Bowl championship, and another Super Bowl appearance.
Warner has regular season statistics comparable to Brees, but blows Brees away in the postseason, including 3 Super Bowl appearances and 1 championship... plus 2 MVPs.
Manning at age 32 is already top 8 in numerous passing statistics and stands a good chance of surpassing Favre there... plus he has a Super Bowl championship and 3 MVPs.
Brady has one of the best single seasons ever and 3 Super Bowl championships.I think it is terribly premature to ask about Brees at this point. He's got one 1st team All Pro selection, 0 MVPs, and 0 Super Bowl appearances. His highest rank in compiled statistics is #37 in completions. But he's only 29 years old. If he keeps it up long enough, especially if he wins a Super Bowl and/or an MVP or two, he'll have a good chance.

Check back in 2-3 years.

The answer is 2-3 years should be obvious. That's why I want you to vote now.

 

[Chaka]

It goes without saying that most will vote 'yes' in light of his 6 TD performance yesterday.

I guess so, but it just seems that when people talk about current QBs that will be in the HOF they say:

Favre

Manning

Brady

Maybe Warner, maybe McNabb. I think Brees' name is rarely floated, I guess because he's still in the prime of his career. But I think he now has a great shot to make it one day.

With a great year this season (certainly off to a fine start), he'll have 4 great seasons ('04, '06, '08, '09) to his name. That puts him close to a HOF lock.

Well, there are reasons why those players are mentioned and Brees isn't:
Favre has all the records, 3 MVPs, a Super Bowl championship, and another Super Bowl appearance.
Warner has regular season statistics comparable to Brees, but blows Brees away in the postseason, including 3 Super Bowl appearances and 1 championship... plus 2 MVPs.
Manning at age 32 is already top 8 in numerous passing statistics and stands a good chance of surpassing Favre there... plus he has a Super Bowl championship and 3 MVPs.
Brady has one of the best single seasons ever and 3 Super Bowl championships.I think it is terribly premature to ask about Brees at this point. He's got one 1st team All Pro selection, 0 MVPs, and 0 Super Bowl appearances. His highest rank in compiled statistics is #37 in completions. But he's only 29 years old. If he keeps it up long enough, especially if he wins a Super Bowl and/or an MVP or two, he'll have a good chance.

Check back in 2-3 years.

QBs get too much credit for winning and shoulder too much blame for losses. I think it is unfair to compare Brees with any of those QBs (Warner comes closest). Right now Brees' career numbers most closely mirrors Warren Moon and Brees compares very favorably to Moon so he should have a very good chance.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Right now, the comparable on Brees is Drew Bledsoe. Bledsoe is #5 in yardage and #13 in TDs, with four Pro Bowls and no All-Pros. He led the league in passing yardage twice, and had a 98-95 record as a starter.Brees will have to finish up his career better than Bledsoe did to make it--I don't think Bledsoe has a chance. I do expect that Brees will do better.

Brees is so far ahead of Bledsoe that no comparison is necessary. Brees could play like Jake Delhomme every game the rest of the season and still have had a better career than Bledsoe. Bledsoe was an average QB who played for a very long time; Brees is a terrific QB who has played for seven years.

 

[az_prof]

He is well on his way. If he breaks Marino's record then he is in, no matter what else happens. If he can keep playing at this level for three more years he is in. If he can win a SB to go with what he has done and has three decent years, he is in.

 

[Tau837]

It goes without saying that most will vote 'yes' in light of his 6 TD performance yesterday.

I guess so, but it just seems that when people talk about current QBs that will be in the HOF they say:

Favre

Manning

Brady

Maybe Warner, maybe McNabb. I think Brees' name is rarely floated, I guess because he's still in the prime of his career. But I think he now has a great shot to make it one day.

With a great year this season (certainly off to a fine start), he'll have 4 great seasons ('04, '06, '08, '09) to his name. That puts him close to a HOF lock.

Well, there are reasons why those players are mentioned and Brees isn't:
Favre has all the records, 3 MVPs, a Super Bowl championship, and another Super Bowl appearance.
Warner has regular season statistics comparable to Brees, but blows Brees away in the postseason, including 3 Super Bowl appearances and 1 championship... plus 2 MVPs.
Manning at age 32 is already top 8 in numerous passing statistics and stands a good chance of surpassing Favre there... plus he has a Super Bowl championship and 3 MVPs.
Brady has one of the best single seasons ever and 3 Super Bowl championships.I think it is terribly premature to ask about Brees at this point. He's got one 1st team All Pro selection, 0 MVPs, and 0 Super Bowl appearances. His highest rank in compiled statistics is #37 in completions. But he's only 29 years old. If he keeps it up long enough, especially if he wins a Super Bowl and/or an MVP or two, he'll have a good chance.

Check back in 2-3 years.

QBs get too much credit for winning and shoulder too much blame for losses. I think it is unfair to compare Brees with any of those QBs (Warner comes closest). Right now Brees' career numbers most closely mirrors Warren Moon and Brees compares very favorably to Moon so he should have a very good chance.

Brees has quite a ways to go to compare favorably to Moon:
Moon is still #4 in passing yards and #6 in passing TDs all time. Brees is a long way from those numbers.
Moon ran for 1736 yards and 22 TDs in his career. Brees likely won't come close to that kind of added production.
Moon threw for 2870 yards and 17 TDs in 10 career playoff games. Brees has only played in 3 playoff games to date, so he needs to lead his team into the postseason a few more times to compare to Moon.
Moon made 9 Pro Bowls. Brees has made 3.And all of Moon's accomplishments came despite the fact that he didn't reach the NFL until age 28, arguably due to discrimination. Had the NFL drafted him to play QB out of college, Favre might very well still be chasing Moon's records.

 

[Tau837]

It goes without saying that most will vote 'yes' in light of his 6 TD performance yesterday.

I guess so, but it just seems that when people talk about current QBs that will be in the HOF they say:

Favre

Manning

Brady

Maybe Warner, maybe McNabb. I think Brees' name is rarely floated, I guess because he's still in the prime of his career. But I think he now has a great shot to make it one day.

With a great year this season (certainly off to a fine start), he'll have 4 great seasons ('04, '06, '08, '09) to his name. That puts him close to a HOF lock.

Well, there are reasons why those players are mentioned and Brees isn't:
Favre has all the records, 3 MVPs, a Super Bowl championship, and another Super Bowl appearance.
Warner has regular season statistics comparable to Brees, but blows Brees away in the postseason, including 3 Super Bowl appearances and 1 championship... plus 2 MVPs.
Manning at age 32 is already top 8 in numerous passing statistics and stands a good chance of surpassing Favre there... plus he has a Super Bowl championship and 3 MVPs.
Brady has one of the best single seasons ever and 3 Super Bowl championships.I think it is terribly premature to ask about Brees at this point. He's got one 1st team All Pro selection, 0 MVPs, and 0 Super Bowl appearances. His highest rank in compiled statistics is #37 in completions. But he's only 29 years old. If he keeps it up long enough, especially if he wins a Super Bowl and/or an MVP or two, he'll have a good chance.

Check back in 2-3 years.

The answer is 2-3 years should be obvious. That's why I want you to vote now.

I voted yes, because I agree with you that it is more likely than not. But it is by no means a given.

 

[David Yudkin]

I would say he is on pace to get in and would say he should get in if he keeps things up. But if he never played another down then no.

 

[Adebisi]

Of course he will. Everyone makes the HOF in the Shark Pool!

 

[Chaka]

It goes without saying that most will vote 'yes' in light of his 6 TD performance yesterday.

I guess so, but it just seems that when people talk about current QBs that will be in the HOF they say:

Favre

Manning

Brady

Maybe Warner, maybe McNabb. I think Brees' name is rarely floated, I guess because he's still in the prime of his career. But I think he now has a great shot to make it one day.

With a great year this season (certainly off to a fine start), he'll have 4 great seasons ('04, '06, '08, '09) to his name. That puts him close to a HOF lock.

Well, there are reasons why those players are mentioned and Brees isn't:
Favre has all the records, 3 MVPs, a Super Bowl championship, and another Super Bowl appearance.
Warner has regular season statistics comparable to Brees, but blows Brees away in the postseason, including 3 Super Bowl appearances and 1 championship... plus 2 MVPs.
Manning at age 32 is already top 8 in numerous passing statistics and stands a good chance of surpassing Favre there... plus he has a Super Bowl championship and 3 MVPs.
Brady has one of the best single seasons ever and 3 Super Bowl championships.I think it is terribly premature to ask about Brees at this point. He's got one 1st team All Pro selection, 0 MVPs, and 0 Super Bowl appearances. His highest rank in compiled statistics is #37 in completions. But he's only 29 years old. If he keeps it up long enough, especially if he wins a Super Bowl and/or an MVP or two, he'll have a good chance.

Check back in 2-3 years.

QBs get too much credit for winning and shoulder too much blame for losses. I think it is unfair to compare Brees with any of those QBs (Warner comes closest). Right now Brees' career numbers most closely mirrors Warren Moon and Brees compares very favorably to Moon so he should have a very good chance.

Brees has quite a ways to go to compare favorably to Moon:
Moon is still #4 in passing yards and #6 in passing TDs all time. Brees is a long way from those numbers.
Moon ran for 1736 yards and 22 TDs in his career. Brees likely won't come close to that kind of added production.
Moon threw for 2870 yards and 17 TDs in 10 career playoff games. Brees has only played in 3 playoff games to date, so he needs to lead his team into the postseason a few more times to compare to Moon.
Moon made 9 Pro Bowls. Brees has made 3.And all of Moon's accomplishments came despite the fact that he didn't reach the NFL until age 28, arguably due to discrimination. Had the NFL drafted him to play QB out of college, Favre might very well still be chasing Moon's records.

After 8 seasons in the NFL I wouldn't expect Brees to be anywhere near #4 in passing yards, but he has more yards, TDs, fewer INTs and a better W-L% then Moon did after 8 seasons. Actually it isn't quite a season for season comparison I am making, Brees has played 107 games in 8 seasons and Moon played 115.Moon was 3-7 in playoff games and was a part of the biggest single game collapse in NFL history (regular or post-season) so I doubt his post season accomplishments factored too heavily in his HoF voting.

I feel bad that Moon didn't get a shot earlier, he may very well have ended up at the top of all passing categories however that didn't happen so I really see no point in discussing it.

Pro bowls are popularity contests, All-Pro teams are a much better measuring stick and Brees has made one first team AP team and Moon made zero AP All Pro teams.

I AM NOT SAYING BREES>>>MOON. Moon was awesome, so is Brees and if Brees never makes the SB then Moon will be a very relevant point of comparison for Brees' HoF candidacy.

 

[abe froman]

Voted yes. Did anyone else catch Brees in the Sports Science episode where he competed against a PRO archer in a bullseye contest from 25yds out?? He went 10 for 10 on direct bullseyes it was nuts! We all know he's a very accurate passer but that performance was just rediculous.

 

[Pskov1420]

I remember doing some rudimentary analysis a few years ago that predicted there are approximately 35 or so future Hall of Famers playing in the league at any one time. Quarterbacks will be disproportionately represented amongst that number, both because there are more of them in the hall and that they have longer careers, so there are probably 6 QBs at most active today who will make the Hall of Fame. Keep in mind that means anyone active including first and second year players like Ryan, Flacco, Stafford etc. plus the current young backups we don't know much if anything about who will go on to have good careers.

So of those 6 potentials we have three locks who would be in if they retired tomorrow - Brady, Manning and Favre, plus Kurt Warner who is probably around a 70-80% at present. That doesn't exactly leave much scope for anyone else to get in. Brees is definitely one of the best QBs in the league at the moment, but there are lots of players who were one of the best at their position for a three year stretch who aren't in the hall.

 

[Chaka]

I remember doing some rudimentary analysis a few years ago that predicted there are approximately 35 or so future Hall of Famers playing in the league at any one time. Quarterbacks will be disproportionately represented amongst that number, both because there are more of them in the hall and that they have longer careers, so there are probably 6 QBs at most active today who will make the Hall of Fame. Keep in mind that means anyone active including first and second year players like Ryan, Flacco, Stafford Sanchez etc. plus the current young backups we don't know much if anything about who will go on to have good careers.

So of those 6 potentials we have three locks who would be in if they retired tomorrow - Brady, Manning and Favre, plus Kurt Warner who is probably around a 70-80% at present. That doesn't exactly leave much scope for anyone else to get in. Brees is definitely one of the best QBs in the league at the moment, but there are lots of players who were one of the best at their position for a three year stretch who aren't in the hall.

Fixed

 

[Chase Stuart]

Of course he will. Everyone makes the HOF in the Shark Pool!

I think it's usually the opposite. Almost no one should be in the HOF according to the SP in most threads.

 

[CalBear]

Right now, the comparable on Brees is Drew Bledsoe. Bledsoe is #5 in yardage and #13 in TDs, with four Pro Bowls and no All-Pros. He led the league in passing yardage twice, and had a 98-95 record as a starter.Brees will have to finish up his career better than Bledsoe did to make it--I don't think Bledsoe has a chance. I do expect that Brees will do better.

Brees is so far ahead of Bledsoe that no comparison is necessary. Brees could play like Jake Delhomme every game the rest of the season and still have had a better career than Bledsoe. Bledsoe was an average QB who played for a very long time; Brees is a terrific QB who has played for seven years.

Are you sure about that? Bledsoe did throw for over 4500 yards once (in the top 20 QB seasons of all time), and over 4000 yards three times. Like Brees, he never threw more than 28 TDs, and has a win/loss percentage just a smidge above .500. Like Brees, Bledsoe threw a lot of passes; Bledsoe led the league in pass attempts three times, Brees twice. Brees has a somewhat better Y/A (7.2 instead of 6.6), but 7.2 isn't particularly impressive. Bledsoe threw for 230 yards/game vs. 245, 1.30 TDs per game vs. 1.58. Compare that with Manning, who is 117-59 as a starter, throws for 7.7 Y/A, 259 yards/game, and 1.89 TDs/game. The difference between Manning and Brees is at least as large as the difference between Brees and Bledsoe. Probably more so, because Bledsoe went to a Super Bowl.

 

[Chase Stuart]

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BreeDr00.htm -- Career ANY/A index of 111 (11% better than average)

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BledDr00.htm -- Career ANY/A index of 99 (1% worse than average)

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00.htm -- Career ANY/A index of 122 (22% better than average)

Bledsoe was at a weather disadvantage relative to the other two guys, so that helps him somewhat. Manning's had a hard schedule most of his career; Brees a pretty neutral one. Bledsoe was awful in the playoffs most of his career, but I guess Brees and Manning haven't been lights out there, either.

I can get on board with the difference between Manning/Brees being equal to the difference between Bledsoe/Brees. But that's only because of consistency and longevity. Except for '04, I'd say Manning and Brees have been close to equivalent in their best three seasons (ignoring Manning's monster '04). And both are far ahead of Bledsoe's peak.

 

[Native]

I usually love participating in these discussions, Chase, and enjoy comparing old-time players with accomplishments of modern guys. But its way too early to have this discussion. If Brees breaks his leg tomorrow then he shouldnt get in. If he throws 6 TD's a game for the next 7 years then hes a lock. Anything in between? Well, it depends...

As for your question, will he get in? I suppose, but answering that questions is more about speculating his future than critiquing his past. If were already speculating about future performance, Id say that a more interesting question would be: which 1st or 2nd year player will get into the Hall of Fame?

Anyway, thanks for not starting a thread that asks: Is Brees the Best QB of all time?

 

[Chaka]

Right now, the comparable on Brees is Drew Bledsoe. Bledsoe is #5 in yardage and #13 in TDs, with four Pro Bowls and no All-Pros. He led the league in passing yardage twice, and had a 98-95 record as a starter.Brees will have to finish up his career better than Bledsoe did to make it--I don't think Bledsoe has a chance. I do expect that Brees will do better.

Brees is so far ahead of Bledsoe that no comparison is necessary. Brees could play like Jake Delhomme every game the rest of the season and still have had a better career than Bledsoe. Bledsoe was an average QB who played for a very long time; Brees is a terrific QB who has played for seven years.

Are you sure about that? Bledsoe did throw for over 4500 yards once (in the top 20 QB seasons of all time), and over 4000 yards three times. Like Brees, he never threw more than 28 TDs, and has a win/loss percentage just a smidge above .500. Like Brees, Bledsoe threw a lot of passes; Bledsoe led the league in pass attempts three times, Brees twice. Brees has a somewhat better Y/A (7.2 instead of 6.6), but 7.2 isn't particularly impressive. Bledsoe threw for 230 yards/game vs. 245, 1.30 TDs per game vs. 1.58. Compare that with Manning, who is 117-59 as a starter, throws for 7.7 Y/A, 259 yards/game, and 1.89 TDs/game. The difference between Manning and Brees is at least as large as the difference between Brees and Bledsoe. Probably more so, because Bledsoe went to a Super Bowl.

After 106 games (107 for Brees - not including yesterday) Brees has 292 more yards, 21 more TDs, 24 fewer interceptions, 73 fewer sacks, 1 more AP All Pro, (1 less Pro Bowl for those that care about the PB) and has a 7% advantage in career completion %. Brees also threw for 34 TDs last year (not 28) and has averaged 27.8 TD passes over the last 5 years.Right now Brees is on pace to surpass Bledsoe in every category, except perhaps yardage, and by a wide margin.If he continues to perform at a high level for another 4 seasons I cannot imagine him not making the HoF. In 4 years he will only be 33, considering how infrequently he gets hit and the fact that he relies far more on smarts then athletic ability (although he has tons of the latter too) he stands a good chance to continue to produce for a lot longer than 4 seasons.

 

[CalBear]

I can get on board with the difference between Manning/Brees being equal to the difference between Bledsoe/Brees. But that's only because of consistency and longevity. Except for '04, I'd say Manning and Brees have been close to equivalent in their best three seasons (ignoring Manning's monster '04). And both are far ahead of Bledsoe's peak.

Come now, you know better than to play the "except for" game. Except for the season where Brees almost broke Marino's record, he's actually been fairly pedestrian; 235 yards/game, 1.48 TD/game, 7.02 yards/attempt.

 

[Chaka]

I usually love participating in these discussions, Chase, and enjoy comparing old-time players with accomplishments of modern guys. But its way too early to have this discussion. If Brees breaks his leg tomorrow then he shouldnt get in. If he throws 6 TD's a game for the next 7 years then hes a lock. Anything in between? Well, it depends...

As for your question, will he get in? I suppose, but answering that questions is more about speculating his future than critiquing his past. If were already speculating about future performance, Id say that a more interesting question would be: which 1st or 2nd year player will get into the Hall of Fame?

Anyway, thanks for not starting a thread that asks: Is Brees the Best QB of all time?

Agreed, if Brees never plays another snap then he does not deserve to get in the HoF.But I like his prospects of not suffering a career ending injury relative to other QBs. He rarely gets hit.

 

[culdeus]

If people are talking about Issac Bruce as a sure fire HOF member then for damn sure Brees makes it in over that bar.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I usually love participating in these discussions, Chase, and enjoy comparing old-time players with accomplishments of modern guys. But its way too early to have this discussion. If Brees breaks his leg tomorrow then he shouldnt get in. If he throws 6 TD's a game for the next 7 years then hes a lock. Anything in between? Well, it depends...

As for your question, will he get in? I suppose, but answering that questions is more about speculating his future than critiquing his past. If were already speculating about future performance, Id say that a more interesting question would be: which 1st or 2nd year player will get into the Hall of Fame?

Anyway, thanks for not starting a thread that asks: Is Brees the Best QB of all time?

I don't think it's too early to guess whether or not Brees will get in. Feel free to start a thread on whoever you want -- maybe Matt Forte if you really want. You can always set a line. If Vegas asked "will Matt Forte make the HOF", the odds would be far worse than 1:1. My question was basically what those odds would be for Brees -- and, I think, it's slightly north of 1:1. That's why I started the thread.

For sure he won't make it if he never threw another TD pass.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I can get on board with the difference between Manning/Brees being equal to the difference between Bledsoe/Brees. But that's only because of consistency and longevity. Except for '04, I'd say Manning and Brees have been close to equivalent in their best three seasons (ignoring Manning's monster '04). And both are far ahead of Bledsoe's peak.

Come now, you know better than to play the "except for" game. Except for the season where Brees almost broke Marino's record, he's actually been fairly pedestrian; 235 yards/game, 1.48 TD/game, 7.02 yards/attempt.

Not really. Brees was a stud in '04 and '06.My only point about the "except for" business was that Manning hasn't been that much better, at his best, than Brees. He's had one monster season and a bunch of stellar ones. But Brees has had three stellar seasons, too. Over the course of his career, Manning has been way better. But to call Brees a one year wonder is not true.

 

[Chase Stuart]

If people are talking about Issac Bruce as a sure fire HOF member then for damn sure Brees makes it in over that bar.

I don't think people are talking about Bruce as a :lock:, despite his 15000+ yard status now. Good chance, but certainly not a lock.

 

[Chaka]

If people are talking about Issac Bruce as a sure fire HOF member then for damn sure Brees makes it in over that bar.

I don't think people are talking about Bruce as a :lock:, despite his 15000+ yard status now. Good chance, but certainly not a lock.

There is a log jam at WR for the HoF that will only get worse by the time Bruce is eligible. He could be one of many Art Monks waiting to get in the hall.

 

[valhallan]

Saints fan here and I love Brees, obviously, but I think he's going to suffer from lack of winning. He's on a franchise that will likely continue to be mediocre and I don't have the numbers here, but I believe he hasn't carved out too many fourth quarter wins.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Yes. I think he will play at a high level for at least another 4 or 5 years. Then he might have 1 to 2 fade away years. I expect him to finish with 50,000+ pass yards and 300+ pass TDs. He'll be in some rarified company.

 

[Breesisdaman]

I voted yes. It will be long overdue for a Saint to get into the Hall. I still don't know why Ricky Jackson isn't in.

 

[CalBear]

If people are talking about Issac Bruce as a sure fire HOF member then for damn sure Brees makes it in over that bar.

I don't think people are talking about Bruce as a :lock:, despite his 15000+ yard status now. Good chance, but certainly not a lock.

There is a log jam at WR for the HoF that will only get worse by the time Bruce is eligible. He could be one of many Art Monks waiting to get in the hall.

Isaac Bruce >> Art Monk.