Will Greg Jones be the goal line man in Jax? (1 Viewer)

[Thumper]

If MJD is getting the goal line touches. I think you could argue that Jones Drew is a low end #1 rb or a very good #2 rb.

If Greg Jones vultures the td's MJD could be nothing more than a middle of the road rb #2.

Any Jax homers out there know who will get the goal line love?

 

[C Diesel]

Let's not forget about Fred Taylor....although I doubt he would get a ton of goal-line touches, we don't know now that Garrard is the man. Overall I think MJD and Taylor's value gets a bump......haven't heard much on Greg Jones yet.

 

[gheemony]

I think Garrard steals a few short yardage TDs.

I'm not worried about Jones. I may end up being wrong, but the stats tell me that MJD is better than Jones in short yardage.

 

[Wadsworth]

There's really no data as to who will get the goal line carries in Jax yet. I expect that MJD will get most of the work, but Fred and Greg Jones should get a chance now and then. The real worry to an MJD owner should be David Garrard. David is a powerful runner and his short passing game is solid, this alone could steal some TDs from MJD. But beyond that, there's obviously a huge debate going on in Jax about Jack Del Rio turning Leftwich lose and starting David. Considering this, I expect David to get more than his normal share of chances around the endzone to try and prop up his stats in order to support Del Rio's choice. Especially early in the season, expect David to get at least one shot at the endzone everytime they get close.

 

[Traders2001]

MJD got drafted way too high this season . This will be RBBBBBBBBC a comittee of 3 that s bad .

 

[Parmcat]

How many times does this need to be answered in this preseason?

Fred Taylor has recently, been one of the WORST at converting goalline touched to TD's.

Why does everyone think that Greg Jones is going to Vulture ANYTHING besides the pregame buffett??? What has he EVER done...ever to suggest he is a goalline vulture?

MJG (I dont have the stats in front of me) was very efficient at converting last year on the goal line. Why is this going to change this year? He is going to get the ball as much if not more this year, as he is the playmaker. He will spilt some carries with Taylor, yes, but its the quality of the carries that matters, and he will be getting those quality carries.

Can we now put the Greg Jones issue to bed?

 

[Parmcat]

MJD got drafted way too high this season . This will be RBBBBBBBBC a comittee of 3 that s bad .

LOLOk

 

[Bri]

MJD got drafted way too high this season . This will be RBBBBBBBBC a comittee of 3 that s bad .

LOLOk

I don't recall ever seeing a backup RB going in round 1 or 2, so I'd have to agree with him. I do think MJD was excellent last year and think he has a world of potential and talent and all but FF is for the most part about opportunity. Just simple football experience would make a regular fan think Taylor went late MJD went early. There are people that think MJD takes this job and runs with it. That I can see, and I could roll with that as a completely different scenario but.....ya gotta admit it's awfully weird to draft a backup RB in round 1 or 2 and that the starter is considerred worse by his draft spot.What would you tell the guy that drafts Betts before Portis?Re this thread, at most Greg Jones does an imitation of Evans in NE. Once in a blue moon JDR lets him carry the rock, he puts his head down and barrels into some defenders. One 2 TD week all season....maybe. Several 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 carries probably. Nothing exciting, nothing FFers will care about as Evans didn't affect Maroney or Dillon in 06.His time in the NFL has shown that Jones is not an NFL RB. That's fine, apparently he's a good FB. Not everyone's game translates from college to the NFL. He's been hurt so often it's possible with some experience playing FB he sees some things he can do to his game and becomes a better RB but I think that's a leap.

 

[Parmcat]

MJD got drafted way too high this season . This will be RBBBBBBBBC a comittee of 3 that s bad .

LOLOk

I don't recall ever seeing a backup RB going in round 1 or 2, so I'd have to agree with him. I do think MJD was excellent last year and think he has a world of potential and talent and all but FF is for the most part about opportunity. Just simple football experience would make a regular fan think Taylor went late MJD went early. There are people that think MJD takes this job and runs with it. That I can see, and I could roll with that as a completely different scenario but.....ya gotta admit it's awfully weird to draft a backup RB in round 1 or 2 and that the starter is considerred worse by his draft spot.What would you tell the guy that drafts Betts before Portis?Re this thread, at most Greg Jones does an imitation of Evans in NE. Once in a blue moon JDR lets him carry the rock, he puts his head down and barrels into some defenders. One 2 TD week all season....maybe. Several 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 carries probably. Nothing exciting, nothing FFers will care about as Evans didn't affect Maroney or Dillon in 06.His time in the NFL has shown that Jones is not an NFL RB. That's fine, apparently he's a good FB. Not everyone's game translates from college to the NFL. He's been hurt so often it's possible with some experience playing FB he sees some things he can do to his game and becomes a better RB but I think that's a leap.

See post 6 for my opinion.I dont care who is the starter. MJD started was listed as the started only a few times last year, and took advantage. He got the quility carries.Do you not think that Jax needs to give the ball to the guy that can get them in the endzone? Yes, MJD caught lightning in a bottle last year, but there is no reason to think he cant come close to those numbers....maybe a few less TDs, but he has talent, and Jax needs to take advantage of it...not fool around with a FB that is injury prone. Let him block for the real RBs on the team.

 

[Art_VanDalay]

Just wanted to throw in some of my recent thoughts on Jax right now since there is more going on with this team right now than any other IMO. Garrard is an avg QB at best. I watched him when he started last year and he is a liability. Game Manager who can run a little but that is it. What Del Rio saw in PRESEASON to essentially assure himself a pink slip out of Jax in 2008 is beyond me. In any event, I believe teams will start the season vs. Jax daring Garrard to beat them and he won't. 8 men in the box and throw in the stone hands receivers (that was Lefty's fault too I think) and you have a recipe for a long season. BTW, if Gerrard fails and Quinn is the answer, then I would love to know the question. He had a shot last year too and is worse than Gerrard. As for GJones, you can say this guy has never done anything but they loved him in Jax two years ago before the ACL injury and he was going to be the GL specialist prior to MJD. All bets are off at the GL this year but I bet they don't get as many opportunities this year as last. Throw in the other factor that DC's will gameplan for MJD more this year knowing its the Taylor/MJD show and you have a lot of disappointed FF owners with Jax players. My advice is to avoid the entire Jax situation as much as possible. MJD is a good pick if its not too high this year and Taylor will get you yardage b/w the twenties but that is it. Take it for what its worth. (I feel better now)

 

[gianmarco]

The argument that makes me laugh for MJD is "how can the coaching staff not give the ball to the best player, MJD, when he's on the field?"

Not too solid an argument when you consider that same coaching staff just cut Leftwich and feel Garrard is the best starter for them.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

How many times does this need to be answered in this preseason?Fred Taylor has recently, been one of the WORST at converting goalline touched to TD's.Why does everyone think that Greg Jones is going to Vulture ANYTHING besides the pregame buffett??? What has he EVER done...ever to suggest he is a goalline vulture?MJG (I dont have the stats in front of me) was very efficient at converting last year on the goal line. Why is this going to change this year? He is going to get the ball as much if not more this year, as he is the playmaker. He will spilt some carries with Taylor, yes, but its the quality of the carries that matters, and he will be getting those quality carries.Can we now put the Greg Jones issue to bed?

Greg Jones very well could get the short yardage carries. Until it is known, I don't see how it can be ignored. I also think Garrard will get a few rushing Td's.

 

[Stingdiddy]

MJD got the ball ALOT during the 4th quarter of games last year. He's the guy that gets the rock late in the game. It's laughable when people call him a "backup". He may not be on the field the first play of the game, but, he's there in the end when it counts.

Were his 13 rushing TD's last year a fluke?

Last year MJD had 0 TD's in September, 3 in October, 3 in November and 7 in December. I like the direction he's moving.

When has Greg Jones ever done anything in the NFL?

 

[Bri]

MJD got drafted way too high this season . This will be RBBBBBBBBC a comittee of 3 that s bad .

LOLOk

I don't recall ever seeing a backup RB going in round 1 or 2, so I'd have to agree with him. I do think MJD was excellent last year and think he has a world of potential and talent and all but FF is for the most part about opportunity. Just simple football experience would make a regular fan think Taylor went late MJD went early. There are people that think MJD takes this job and runs with it. That I can see, and I could roll with that as a completely different scenario but.....ya gotta admit it's awfully weird to draft a backup RB in round 1 or 2 and that the starter is considerred worse by his draft spot.What would you tell the guy that drafts Betts before Portis?Re this thread, at most Greg Jones does an imitation of Evans in NE. Once in a blue moon JDR lets him carry the rock, he puts his head down and barrels into some defenders. One 2 TD week all season....maybe. Several 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 carries probably. Nothing exciting, nothing FFers will care about as Evans didn't affect Maroney or Dillon in 06.His time in the NFL has shown that Jones is not an NFL RB. That's fine, apparently he's a good FB. Not everyone's game translates from college to the NFL. He's been hurt so often it's possible with some experience playing FB he sees some things he can do to his game and becomes a better RB but I think that's a leap.

See post 6 for my opinion.I dont care who is the starter. MJD started was listed as the started only a few times last year, and took advantage. He got the quility carries.Do you not think that Jax needs to give the ball to the guy that can get them in the endzone? Yes, MJD caught lightning in a bottle last year, but there is no reason to think he cant come close to those numbers....maybe a few less TDs, but he has talent, and Jax needs to take advantage of it...not fool around with a FB that is injury prone. Let him block for the real RBs on the team.

all I said was it was weird...which I think it is

 

[Bri]

MJD got the ball ALOT during the 4th quarter of games last year. He's the guy that gets the rock late in the game. It's laughable when people call him a "backup". He may not be on the field the first play of the game, but, he's there in the end when it counts. Were his 13 rushing TD's last year a fluke?When has Greg Jones ever done anything in the NFL?

what's the definition of starter?How do you leap to rushing TDs being a fluke?4th Q has nothing to do with the terms starter or backupeveryone pretty much agrees with ya on Greg Jones

 

[cmv5]

If MJD is a backup then what is Reggie Bush?

Also, people keep bringing up the Garrard starting as being a negative but Garrard started 10 games last year. In those 10 games, he had zero rushing touchdowns. MJD, however was able to score 11 of his 16 touchdowns with Garrard as the QB.

 

[Xenopax]

I typically rate players based on what I see from them and not based on rumors or speculation.

MJD did well last year, nothing has changed to make it look like he won't do well this year, I would expect him to be in the same ballpark this year as last year. Who will get the TDs this year? The hell if I know, probably the guy who is in the best position to score as the team needs. That changes game-to-game. What I do know is Jacksonville relied on MJD last year to score, so I don't see why they wouldn't instill the same level of trust this year.

 

[-Crippler-]

MJD converted a higher % of carries inside the 5 than ANY OTHER PLAYER last year. Use common sense, he will be the goal-line man.

 

[Gr00vus]

Jones-Drew 6/10 converting goal line carries last year. 2nd best in the NFL. Had some of his best games of the season with Garrard under center and completely stinking it up.

Greg Jones is the fullback. He'll be blocking for Jones-Drew on Jones-Drew's goal line carries.

 

[Stingdiddy]

If MJD is a backup then what is Reggie Bush?Also, people keep bringing up the Garrard starting as being a negative but Garrard started 10 games last year. In those 10 games, he had zero rushing touchdowns. MJD, however was able to score 11 of his 16 touchdowns with Garrard as the QB.

Nice...very nice. MJD owners should rejoice in the fact that Leftwich got cut.

 

[NOONAN]

Jones-Drew 6/10 converting goal line carries last year. 2nd best in the NFL. Had some of his best games of the season with Garrard under center and completely stinking it up.Greg Jones is the fullback. He'll be blocking for Jones-Drew on Jones-Drew's goal line carries.

This is the correct answer here. People keep trying to recycle G Jones to justify a dynasty pick I think. He bulked up to be the Fullback. MJD showed he is one of the best in the ENTIRE NFL in goalline situations. He is like Bettis efficiency running and Westbrook receiving threat at the goalline. Jax knows this.Also, I love the argument that NOW DC's will gameplan for him. What, did the films from last year just become available? They tried to stop him last year and couldn't.

 

[Judge Smails]

MJD is the only the difference maker on that offense. He'll get PLENTY of opps to score...

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

MJD was excellent around the goal line last year. Greg Jones has 7 total TDs in 2 years. Why would he replace MJD as the goal line back?

 

[Tau837]

MJD got the ball ALOT during the 4th quarter of games last year. He's the guy that gets the rock late in the game. It's laughable when people call him a "backup". He may not be on the field the first play of the game, but, he's there in the end when it counts. Were his 13 rushing TD's last year a fluke?Last year MJD had 0 TD's in September, 3 in October, 3 in November and 7 in December. I like the direction he's moving.When has Greg Jones ever done anything in the NFL?

Fred Taylor was hurt in December but is not hurt now. Greg Jones was hurt all of last season but is not hurt now. Ignore those things at your own risk.

 

[Judge Smails]

MJD got the ball ALOT during the 4th quarter of games last year. He's the guy that gets the rock late in the game. It's laughable when people call him a "backup". He may not be on the field the first play of the game, but, he's there in the end when it counts. Were his 13 rushing TD's last year a fluke?Last year MJD had 0 TD's in September, 3 in October, 3 in November and 7 in December. I like the direction he's moving.When has Greg Jones ever done anything in the NFL?

Fred Taylor was hurt in December but is not hurt now. Greg Jones was hurt all of last season but is not hurt now. Ignore those things at your own risk.

Ignore MJD's nose for the goal line his entire athletic career at your own risk. He was a TD machine at UCLA, and he's a TD machine now..

 

[Parmcat]

MJD got the ball ALOT during the 4th quarter of games last year. He's the guy that gets the rock late in the game. It's laughable when people call him a "backup". He may not be on the field the first play of the game, but, he's there in the end when it counts. Were his 13 rushing TD's last year a fluke?Last year MJD had 0 TD's in September, 3 in October, 3 in November and 7 in December. I like the direction he's moving.When has Greg Jones ever done anything in the NFL?

Fred Taylor was hurt in December but is not hurt now. Greg Jones was hurt all of last season but is not hurt now. Ignore those things at your own risk.

Wally Pipp

 

[duaneok66]

MJD got the ball ALOT during the 4th quarter of games last year. He's the guy that gets the rock late in the game. It's laughable when people call him a "backup". He may not be on the field the first play of the game, but, he's there in the end when it counts. Were his 13 rushing TD's last year a fluke?Last year MJD had 0 TD's in September, 3 in October, 3 in November and 7 in December. I like the direction he's moving.When has Greg Jones ever done anything in the NFL?

Fred Taylor was hurt in December but is not hurt now. Greg Jones was hurt all of last season but is not hurt now. Ignore those things at your own risk.

these people pimping MJD will be cursing Del Rio in a few weeks . . .

 

[Parmcat]

MJD got the ball ALOT during the 4th quarter of games last year. He's the guy that gets the rock late in the game. It's laughable when people call him a "backup". He may not be on the field the first play of the game, but, he's there in the end when it counts. Were his 13 rushing TD's last year a fluke?Last year MJD had 0 TD's in September, 3 in October, 3 in November and 7 in December. I like the direction he's moving.When has Greg Jones ever done anything in the NFL?

Fred Taylor was hurt in December but is not hurt now. Greg Jones was hurt all of last season but is not hurt now. Ignore those things at your own risk.

these people pimping MJD will be cursing Del Rio in a few weeks . . .

Pour qua?

 

[duaneok66]

MJD got the ball ALOT during the 4th quarter of games last year. He's the guy that gets the rock late in the game. It's laughable when people call him a "backup". He may not be on the field the first play of the game, but, he's there in the end when it counts. Were his 13 rushing TD's last year a fluke?Last year MJD had 0 TD's in September, 3 in October, 3 in November and 7 in December. I like the direction he's moving.When has Greg Jones ever done anything in the NFL?

Fred Taylor was hurt in December but is not hurt now. Greg Jones was hurt all of last season but is not hurt now. Ignore those things at your own risk.

these people pimping MJD will be cursing Del Rio in a few weeks . . .

Pour qua?

for not putting Drew in consistently at the goal line . . .

 

[Parmcat]

MJD got the ball ALOT during the 4th quarter of games last year. He's the guy that gets the rock late in the game. It's laughable when people call him a "backup". He may not be on the field the first play of the game, but, he's there in the end when it counts. Were his 13 rushing TD's last year a fluke?Last year MJD had 0 TD's in September, 3 in October, 3 in November and 7 in December. I like the direction he's moving.When has Greg Jones ever done anything in the NFL?

Fred Taylor was hurt in December but is not hurt now. Greg Jones was hurt all of last season but is not hurt now. Ignore those things at your own risk.

these people pimping MJD will be cursing Del Rio in a few weeks . . .

Pour qua?

for not putting Drew in consistently at the goal line . . .

So Carnack, who will be in at the goal line???

 

[labman]

I live an hour south of Jax, I went to many practices, MJD WILL be the goalline man in most situations, i was burned by NOT starting him last year and it won't happen again, Garrard is better than most people think. Just my opinion and I am not a big jags fan. Time will tell but I'd bet my first born MJD and Garrard both excel this year.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

I live an hour south of Jax, I went to many practices, MJD WILL be the goalline man in most situations, i was burned by NOT starting him last year and it won't happen again, Garrard is better than most people think. Just my opinion and I am not a big jags fan. Time will tell but I'd bet my first born MJD and Garrard both excel this year.

What do you mean most?Which packages was he not in on for the GL plays?

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

Let's objectively look at the facts: MJD is a 2nd year player who averaged 6.5 yards per touch (reception or rush). He proved he could punch the ball into the end zone with great effectiveness scoring 15 TDs including 7 from within the 5 yard line. He was featured more and more into the offense as the season went on.

Knowing that, name one good reason why a guy who is in his 2nd year, is a huge part of the team's future and has proven he can punch the ball in the end zone better than anyone else on the roster, NOT get the goal line carries? Why would Greg Jones, he of the 7 career TDs, get the carries instead?

 

[Parmcat]

Let's objectively look at the facts: MJD is a 2nd year player who averaged 6.5 yards per touch (reception or rush). He proved he could punch the ball into the end zone with great effectiveness scoring 15 TDs including 7 from within the 5 yard line. He was featured more and more into the offense as the season went on.Knowing that, name one good reason why a guy who is in his 2nd year, is a huge part of the team's future and has proven he can punch the ball in the end zone better than anyone else on the roster, NOT get the goal line carries? Why would Greg Jones, he of the 7 career TDs, get the carries instead?

Well said!I guess there ARE Greg Jones dynasty owners that are still waiting for that breakout season!

 

[Chaka]

34 posts and no mention of Jacksonville hiring a new offensive coordinator this off season?

 

[Tau837]

Let's objectively look at the facts: MJD is a 2nd year player who averaged 6.5 yards per touch (reception or rush). He proved he could punch the ball into the end zone with great effectiveness scoring 15 TDs including 7 from within the 5 yard line. He was featured more and more into the offense as the season went on.

Knowing that, name one good reason why a guy who is in his 2nd year, is a huge part of the team's future and has proven he can punch the ball in the end zone better than anyone else on the roster, NOT get the goal line carries? Why would Greg Jones, he of the 7 career TDs, get the carries instead?

The bolded statement is misleading. It implies he gradually got more and more touches. In fact, his touches were pretty steady after the first 2 games until Taylor was hurt. Again, Taylor isn't hurt now.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

Let's objectively look at the facts: MJD is a 2nd year player who averaged 6.5 yards per touch (reception or rush). He proved he could punch the ball into the end zone with great effectiveness scoring 15 TDs including 7 from within the 5 yard line. He was featured more and more into the offense as the season went on.

Knowing that, name one good reason why a guy who is in his 2nd year, is a huge part of the team's future and has proven he can punch the ball in the end zone better than anyone else on the roster, NOT get the goal line carries? Why would Greg Jones, he of the 7 career TDs, get the carries instead?

The bolded statement is misleading. It implies he gradually got more and more touches. In fact, his touches were pretty steady after the first 2 games until Taylor was hurt. Again, Taylor isn't hurt now.

He got 33% more touches in the back half of the season than he did in the first half. We can attribute that to Freddy T being hurt and that's fine. Regardless, you're not addressing my point or the point of the original question.I'd really like to hear a logical reason that Greg Jones will get the goal line carries this year.

 

[Club Leftwich]

Because Greg Jones is the power back in Jville? Have you ever seen what he does to linebackers? Honestly, some of you guys should take a break from stats and watch a football game once in a while.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

Because Greg Jones is the power back in Jville? Have you ever seen what he does to linebackers? Honestly, some of you guys should take a break from stats and watch a football game once in a while.

Yes, nobody here watches actual football games.

 

[3C's]

If MJD is a backup then what is Reggie Bush?

Or MBIII? Ok, not exactly the same as the other 2, but as far as FF goes I'd rather have the "backup" than the "starter" on those 3 teams.

 

[cmv5]

Because Greg Jones is the power back in Jville? Have you ever seen what he does to linebackers? Honestly, some of you guys should take a break from stats and watch a football game once in a while.

Then why are you ignoring the fact that MJD has been more productive in the red zone than Jones?

 

[Parmcat]

Because Greg Jones is the power back in Jville? Have you ever seen what he does to linebackers? Honestly, some of you guys should take a break from stats and watch a football game once in a while.

SEVEN TDs IN 2 YEARS vs a rook that scored 16 and was 2nd best in the league at converting at the goalline last year.Why cant this thread die???Greg Jones is the blocking FB for the Jax goal line vulter....MJDPeriod!

 

[Tau837]

Personally, I wouldn't expect Jones to be "the goal line man". But I do expect him to get at least a couple of TDs. By definition, those are TDs that would have gone to others last year and won't this year. Since MJD had the most TDs, it stands to reason that he will be the one losing them.

Furthermore, the RBs as a whole could easily get fewer TDs. Here is how many TDs the JAX RBs scored the last 5 seasons:

2006 - 21

2005 - 13

2004 - 8

2003 - 13

2002 - 17

To be sure, MJD's talent helped push that number up. But it still looks like an outlier. Suppose they were to score only 17 this year, whether due to fewer TDs, Garrard stealing a couple, whatever. Now give 3 to Jones and other RBs besides Taylor and MJD and 6-7 to Taylor. That leaves 7-8 for MJD. Not at all implausible.

 

[John Maddens Lunchbox]

The way the offense is being run at the moment, I wouldn't be surprised to see Josh Scobee as the goal line back

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

Personally, I wouldn't expect Jones to be "the goal line man". But I do expect him to get at least a couple of TDs. By definition, those are TDs that would have gone to others last year and won't this year. Since MJD had the most TDs, it stands to reason that he will be the one losing them.Furthermore, the RBs as a whole could easily get fewer TDs. Here is how many TDs the JAX RBs scored the last 5 seasons:2006 - 212005 - 132004 - 82003 - 132002 - 17To be sure, MJD's talent helped push that number up. But it still looks like an outlier. Suppose they were to score only 17 this year, whether due to fewer TDs, Garrard stealing a couple, whatever. Now give 3 to Jones and other RBs besides Taylor and MJD and 6-7 to Taylor. That leaves 7-8 for MJD. Not at all implausible.

That might be a fair assessment although I think what you've presented is a worst case scenario for the following reasons:1) In the last 6 years, Taylor has 27 total TDs. This includes rushing TDs. I think we can say that while Taylor will bust a few runs for TDs, he's not a threat to eat into MJD's goal line TDs2) Your numbers above represent a 19% decrease in production for the RBs TDs. Given the fact that Garrard is the starter now, I expect their offense to be better than last year. That's a pretty signifcant decrease.I think it's entirely reasonable to postulate that MJD will not get as many goal line TDs this year. In fact, I think it's likely. However, I fully expect his touches to go up by 10-15% this year to offset this,putting him right around RB15 or so, slightly higher in PPR. And, if the TDs happen to NOT decrease, you're looking at a top 10 RB.

 

[Tau837]

Personally, I wouldn't expect Jones to be "the goal line man". But I do expect him to get at least a couple of TDs. By definition, those are TDs that would have gone to others last year and won't this year. Since MJD had the most TDs, it stands to reason that he will be the one losing them.Furthermore, the RBs as a whole could easily get fewer TDs. Here is how many TDs the JAX RBs scored the last 5 seasons:2006 - 212005 - 132004 - 82003 - 132002 - 17To be sure, MJD's talent helped push that number up. But it still looks like an outlier. Suppose they were to score only 17 this year, whether due to fewer TDs, Garrard stealing a couple, whatever. Now give 3 to Jones and other RBs besides Taylor and MJD and 6-7 to Taylor. That leaves 7-8 for MJD. Not at all implausible.

That might be a fair assessment although I think what you've presented is a worst case scenario for the following reasons:1) In the last 6 years, Taylor has 27 total TDs. This includes rushing TDs. I think we can say that while Taylor will bust a few runs for TDs, he's not a threat to eat into MJD's goal line TDs2) Your numbers above represent a 19% decrease in production for the RBs TDs. Given the fact that Garrard is the starter now, I expect their offense to be better than last year. That's a pretty signifcant decrease.I think it's entirely reasonable to postulate that MJD will not get as many goal line TDs this year. In fact, I think it's likely. However, I fully expect his touches to go up by 10-15% this year to offset this,putting him right around RB15 or so, slightly higher in PPR. And, if the TDs happen to NOT decrease, you're looking at a top 10 RB.

Regarding #1, your data is true but misleading. In 2001, he only had 32 touches on the season and scored 0 TDs. It really shouldn't be included in your assessment. That initially brings us to 27 TDs in the past 5 seasons - 5.4 per season. But then consider that it is really 27 TDs in 72 games, which scales to 6.0 over 16 games. That is also consistent with last season, when Taylor scored 6, and he did that despite getting only 9 carries over the last 3 1/2 games last year. Now, notice that I said I'd project him with 6-7. I fail to see how that is not right in line with any relevant past performance data.Regarding #2, I chose to use 17 because it was the highest total for JAX RBs in the last 5 years other than last year. Also, it may interest you to know that only 7 other teams had as many as 17 TDs scored by their RBs. It really isn't that common.I think a worst case scenario would be much less than 17 TDs. Look at the JAX RB numbers in past years... What you may be failing to grasp is that last season was very possibly their best case scenario, or at least very close to it.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

Personally, I wouldn't expect Jones to be "the goal line man". But I do expect him to get at least a couple of TDs. By definition, those are TDs that would have gone to others last year and won't this year. Since MJD had the most TDs, it stands to reason that he will be the one losing them.Furthermore, the RBs as a whole could easily get fewer TDs. Here is how many TDs the JAX RBs scored the last 5 seasons:2006 - 212005 - 132004 - 82003 - 132002 - 17To be sure, MJD's talent helped push that number up. But it still looks like an outlier. Suppose they were to score only 17 this year, whether due to fewer TDs, Garrard stealing a couple, whatever. Now give 3 to Jones and other RBs besides Taylor and MJD and 6-7 to Taylor. That leaves 7-8 for MJD. Not at all implausible.

That might be a fair assessment although I think what you've presented is a worst case scenario for the following reasons:1) In the last 6 years, Taylor has 27 total TDs. This includes rushing TDs. I think we can say that while Taylor will bust a few runs for TDs, he's not a threat to eat into MJD's goal line TDs2) Your numbers above represent a 19% decrease in production for the RBs TDs. Given the fact that Garrard is the starter now, I expect their offense to be better than last year. That's a pretty signifcant decrease.I think it's entirely reasonable to postulate that MJD will not get as many goal line TDs this year. In fact, I think it's likely. However, I fully expect his touches to go up by 10-15% this year to offset this,putting him right around RB15 or so, slightly higher in PPR. And, if the TDs happen to NOT decrease, you're looking at a top 10 RB.

Regarding #1, your data is true but misleading. In 2001, he only had 32 touches on the season and scored 0 TDs. It really shouldn't be included in your assessment. That initially brings us to 27 TDs in the past 5 seasons - 5.4 per season. But then consider that it is really 27 TDs in 72 games, which scales to 6.0 over 16 games. That is also consistent with last season, when Taylor scored 6, and he did that despite getting only 9 carries over the last 3 1/2 games last year. Now, notice that I said I'd project him with 6-7. I fail to see how that is not right in line with any relevant past performance data.Regarding #2, I chose to use 17 because it was the highest total for JAX RBs in the last 5 years other than last year. Also, it may interest you to know that only 7 other teams had as many as 17 TDs scored by their RBs. It really isn't that common.I think a worst case scenario would be much less than 17 TDs. Look at the JAX RB numbers in past years... What you may be failing to grasp is that last season was very possibly their best case scenario, or at least very close to it.

Actually, I didn't include 2001 I just made a typo. Should have been 5 years, not 6. I guess my point is I DO agree that 15 TDs for MJD is a best case scenario. That said, he's proven that he is effective in goal line situations so I'd be VERY surprised if he doesn't lead the team in TDs. Combine that with a 10-15% increase in yards due to more touches, which I expect, and I think he'll come very close to last year's numbers which had him at #8 in non-PPR leagues. I think we got a bit off track from the initial topic but this is a good conversation. MJD is probably the most polarizing player this year in fantasy. FWIW I have him ranked at 15th in non-PPR and 11th in PPR so I think mid-2nd round is an appropriate pick for him.

 

[Tau837]

Personally, I wouldn't expect Jones to be "the goal line man". But I do expect him to get at least a couple of TDs. By definition, those are TDs that would have gone to others last year and won't this year. Since MJD had the most TDs, it stands to reason that he will be the one losing them.Furthermore, the RBs as a whole could easily get fewer TDs. Here is how many TDs the JAX RBs scored the last 5 seasons:2006 - 212005 - 132004 - 82003 - 132002 - 17To be sure, MJD's talent helped push that number up. But it still looks like an outlier. Suppose they were to score only 17 this year, whether due to fewer TDs, Garrard stealing a couple, whatever. Now give 3 to Jones and other RBs besides Taylor and MJD and 6-7 to Taylor. That leaves 7-8 for MJD. Not at all implausible.

That might be a fair assessment although I think what you've presented is a worst case scenario for the following reasons:1) In the last 6 years, Taylor has 27 total TDs. This includes rushing TDs. I think we can say that while Taylor will bust a few runs for TDs, he's not a threat to eat into MJD's goal line TDs2) Your numbers above represent a 19% decrease in production for the RBs TDs. Given the fact that Garrard is the starter now, I expect their offense to be better than last year. That's a pretty signifcant decrease.I think it's entirely reasonable to postulate that MJD will not get as many goal line TDs this year. In fact, I think it's likely. However, I fully expect his touches to go up by 10-15% this year to offset this,putting him right around RB15 or so, slightly higher in PPR. And, if the TDs happen to NOT decrease, you're looking at a top 10 RB.

Regarding #1, your data is true but misleading. In 2001, he only had 32 touches on the season and scored 0 TDs. It really shouldn't be included in your assessment. That initially brings us to 27 TDs in the past 5 seasons - 5.4 per season. But then consider that it is really 27 TDs in 72 games, which scales to 6.0 over 16 games. That is also consistent with last season, when Taylor scored 6, and he did that despite getting only 9 carries over the last 3 1/2 games last year. Now, notice that I said I'd project him with 6-7. I fail to see how that is not right in line with any relevant past performance data.Regarding #2, I chose to use 17 because it was the highest total for JAX RBs in the last 5 years other than last year. Also, it may interest you to know that only 7 other teams had as many as 17 TDs scored by their RBs. It really isn't that common.I think a worst case scenario would be much less than 17 TDs. Look at the JAX RB numbers in past years... What you may be failing to grasp is that last season was very possibly their best case scenario, or at least very close to it.

Actually, I didn't include 2001 I just made a typo. Should have been 5 years, not 6. I guess my point is I DO agree that 15 TDs for MJD is a best case scenario. That said, he's proven that he is effective in goal line situations so I'd be VERY surprised if he doesn't lead the team in TDs. Combine that with a 10-15% increase in yards due to more touches, which I expect, and I think he'll come very close to last year's numbers which had him at #8 in non-PPR leagues. I think we got a bit off track from the initial topic but this is a good conversation. MJD is probably the most polarizing player this year in fantasy. FWIW I have him ranked at 15th in non-PPR and 11th in PPR so I think mid-2nd round is an appropriate pick for him.

I don't disagree that he may well lead JAX in TDs... I just think there is a good chance he does that with 10 or fewer total TDs.One more thing - a 10-15% increase in yards due to more touches is not a given. He will very likely be less productive per touch, which means he'd have to get an increase in touches much greater than 10-15% to see a 10-15% increase in yards.Agree we got off topic... sorry for the hijack. I agree Greg Jones is not "the goal line man".

 

[Keys Myaths]

How many times does this need to be answered in this preseason?Fred Taylor has recently, been one of the WORST at converting goalline touched to TD's.Why does everyone think that Greg Jones is going to Vulture ANYTHING besides the pregame buffett??? What has he EVER done...ever to suggest he is a goalline vulture?MJG (I dont have the stats in front of me) was very efficient at converting last year on the goal line. Why is this going to change this year? He is going to get the ball as much if not more this year, as he is the playmaker. He will spilt some carries with Taylor, yes, but its the quality of the carries that matters, and he will be getting those quality carries.Can we now put the Greg Jones issue to bed?

The speculation/panicking off NO news is plummeting MJD's perceived value, though. He really has become a strong value play.

 

[Gr00vus]

2006 - 212005 - 13

So what changed between 2005 and 2006? Was it Fred Taylor suddenly scoring more touchdowns? Was it Greg Jones suddenly scoring more touchdowns? Was it Byron Leftwich suddenly scoring more touchdowns? Was it Byron Leftwich suddenly becoming a great QB setting up lots more easy tds? Was it Byron Leftwich staying healthy through the season giving consistency at the qb position leading to lots more easy tds? Was it the receivers suddenly stepping up and dominating setting up lots more easy tds? Was it David Garrard playing great qb after becoming the starter and setting up lots more easy tds? Was it the defense becoming even better than it already was creating lots more easy tds for the offense? Was it the advent of Maurice Jones-Drew? hmmmmmm.........Occam's Razor.