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Will Jamal Lewis (1 Viewer)

mlwinokur

Footballguy
In 1984 Eric Dickerson set the single-season rushing record with 2,105 yards. Through five games Jamal Lewis has 748 yards, putting him on pace for 2,374 yards. He would crush the record. But Baltimore's inability to pass the football effectively, may mean teams will stack even more players on the line to stop Lewis, and thwart his efforts to break the record. I know it's still early, but does anyone think he might do it? Naysayers (H.K. that's you) are welcome to came and say "Nay, nay, nay"!!

 

grouse

Footballguy
Health. To me, that's the biggest obstacle in his way. He has a terrific closing schedule. If Lewis can play a full 16 games he'll get the record. Defenses can stack the box, and it won't matter. The Ravens have a fantastic o-line, and they don't face a bunch of stiff run D's the rest of the way.

 

CaptainHucklebuck

Ancient Chinese Secret
Problem is, one of those 5 games was for a record. I don't see him keeping pace with that all year... although it's still possible, I guess.

 

Spartans Rule

Footballguy
Problem is, one of those 5 games was for a record. I don't see him keeping pace with that all year... although it's still possible, I guess.
If you project Jamal to continue at his average for the 4 games excluding the record game, he will finish with 1,971 yards. Not quite 2000, but definitely in the ballpark.I'd love to see him break the record. Not just because he's on my team. Well, mostly because he's on my team.
 
No, because teams are going to stack 8 and 9 in the box. Did you see that the Colts are averaging 90 some yards passing a game? Are you kidding me?Let's talk about the lowest passing yards from a team in 16 games? Is it under 1500 yards because that's where Baltimore is currently heading.

 

mlwinokur

Footballguy
Did you see that the Colts are averaging 90 some yards passing a game?
The Colts left Baltimore in the 80's (you're dating yourself), the team in Baltimore is now called the Ravens? :excited:
 

radballs.

Footballguy
No way in hell he breaks it. He'll finish with around 1,800 IF he plays all 16. You can't say, "A guy is on pace to do this...." when one of the games was a statistical outlier of 300 yards. Get real.

 

scottybo

code
No, because teams are going to stack 8 and 9 in the box. Did you see that the Colts are averaging 90 some yards passing a game? Are you kidding me?Let's talk about the lowest passing yards from a team in 16 games? Is it under 1500 yards because that's where Baltimore is currently heading.
Baltimore will use whatever they can to win games. That's all that matters. If it means over-using Lewis and running him to exhaustion, then thats what they will do. Half-way through the season he will start running with an oxygen tank on his back. Bottom-line, I doubt he will break the record, but will come fairly close to the 1,700-2,000 range.
 

H.K.

Footballguy
NAY! IT IS NAY I MUST SAY!!!!!!

Reasons Jamal has no shot at the record (drum roll please):

1) Kyle Boller - No threat of a passing game will make every rushing yard that much tougher to get.

2) Injury risk - Lewis has an injury history. He takes (and gives) a lot of punishment, but he gets hurt as a result. Exhibit A is this week's injury report.

3) Opportunity - Billick is giving a lot of carries to Taylor to spell Lewis. Watching this happen is like watching stats go down a drain.

4) Karma - I have Jamal on my fantasy team and I am like the kiss of death for whoever I draft. I had Priest last year and as soon as he got within a whisker of the TD record, everything went kablooey. Check out Edge this year if you need more proof.

There you have it, so it is, so it shall be!

PS - Hey mlwinokur, I am sure you'll keep this one in the archives, just in case ;)

 
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RKade

Footballguy
Stuffing 8 or 9 in the box to stop the run at all cost-- done in every game this seasonNo passing game -- done in every gameI see no reason given that nobody has been able to stop him so far for him to falter.@ Cinn -- this guy has torched them since he came into the leage. Sick numbersDEN -- tough since DEN is great against the run. Average numbers but still should produceJAC -- sick numbers@STL -- sick numbers and people won't be talking about Faulk that day@MIA -- tough game here and won't know for a few weeks especially with Miami so up and downSEA -- sick numbersSF -- joke defense, sick numbersCINN -- again, sick numbers@Oak -- run run run sick numbersCLE -- super bowl weekend for me, perfect rematch and watch him try and break his single game record. SICK game.So, one possibly two games there are possible doubts. The rest, oh oh it's magic!!!!

 

marbotty

Footballguy
I think its unlikely he'll break it, but surpassing 2000 yards is definitely within the realm of realistic possiblities. As for defenses concentrating on stopping the run, isn't that what they've been doing already? Boller's been a complete non-factor in the offense to this point --- I think if he can improve, things could actual go better for Lewis. He certainly can't play much worse.

edited --- I see RKade essentially made the same point I did.

 
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H.K.

Footballguy
Talk about two different approaches to fantasy football:1) RKade = the glass is overflowing2) H.K. = the glass is completely empty because it is shattered on the floorClassic! :thumbup:

 

RKade

Footballguy
jax has a good d line and lb corps, very underated. its there pass d thats bad
CLEVELAND isn't too shabby either, good but not incredible, similar to Jax and how did JLEW do against them?Tell you what, I will be more shocked if he gets < 100 yards against them than if he gets > 100 yards against them.Even throwing in an additional game where he isn't on, his schedule is very favorable. He can only stop himself (injury) for this not to happen.
 

TheFanatic

Footballguy
He might. Ya never know!
This is a very insightful post.....Wow, I feel so enlightened....Seriously, though. Try he has an outlier in his games to date that inflate his stats, but someone said that he only needs to average 124 a game to do it. That is a distinct possibility, particularly considering his opponents.What if he busts off 200 against Cinci this week? that drops the average by 8 yards a week. I mean, even Edge was averaging close to 90 rushing yards a game and he has somehow swapped bodies with Fred Taylor. And it's not like Jamal has Peyton and Marvelous in the same huddle. Some see that as a deterent, but everyone else knows that they have no passing attack yet Jamal is still running all over everyone....
 

heyshady

Footballguy
No way in hell he breaks it. He'll finish with around 1,800 IF he plays all 16. You can't say, "A guy is on pace to do this...." when one of the games was a statistical outlier of 300 yards. Get real.
Huh? That statistical outlier is the REASON Jamal has a chance to break the record. Freak game or not, those yards count towards the record. You act as if, because he probably CAN'T rush for 300 yards again he won't break the record. He doesn't HAVE to do it again. All he needs is 124 yards per game. Factor in that he'll romp Cincy and Cleveland three more times for much more than 124 yds per game and the record becomes reasonably attainable.Because of Kyle Boller and the passing game, I don't think Jamal will break it. I know it hasn't hurt yet, but at some point during the season, the lack of even a shell of a passing game and balanced attack will probably slow him down in a few games.That being said, he does have a very reasonable shot at it and one can't just dismiss it altogether.
 

RKade

Footballguy
Talk about two different approaches to fantasy football:1) RKade = the glass is overflowing2) H.K. = the glass is completely empty because it is shattered on the floorClassic! :thumbup:
HK since you say you are the kiss of death with RBs you draft, PLEASE for the LOVE OF GOD, trade them both NOW!!!! I can give you my opponent's RBs and you can get them. Split the SB earnings then? :)It's not collusion if we aren't in the same league, is it???? :rolleyes: This week: vs Ricky Williams who I need taken out!
 

H.K.

Footballguy
HK since you say you are the kiss of death with RBs you draft, PLEASE for the LOVE OF GOD, trade them both NOW!!!! I can give you my opponent's RBs and you can get them. Split the SB earnings then? :)It's not collusion if we aren't in the same league, is it???? :rolleyes: This week: vs Ricky Williams who I need taken out!
OK, I'll deal Lewis & Edge but it'll cost you. How does 75% of your winnings sound? :yes: :lol: By the way, saw that you squeaked into the top 2000 this week in the $15 K, congrats!I've got some bye week issues this week at WR, I am going to need some breaks to keep going. Good luck this week!
 

GreedoShotFirst

Footballguy
I think he breaks it in the last game of the season and then goes out with his O-line to celebrate. As a two time loser in the league substance abuse program, he gets busted drinking beer and is suspended for the next season.

 

PMENFAN

Footballguy
I wouldn't give odds any higher than 4-1 against it. I think he's got a very realistic shot at it. Yes, he has a 295 yard game, but all backs that approach 200 have at least one game of 200+. If Baltimore develops a semblance of a passing game (which I think they will, or at least improve enough to give them some respect) it becomes almost a sure thing. Taylor taking carries isn't a concern, as it gives Jamal rest, and allows Taylor to wear down the D as well. I don't see Balt. getting blown out, leaving them to pass the ball. Not with that D. Everything sets up to allow him to do it, but there are so many variables involved that speculation is fruitless. He could be watching MNF this week and break his foot. It's been known to happen.

 

RKade

Footballguy
HK since you say you are the kiss of death with RBs you draft, PLEASE for the LOVE OF GOD, trade them both NOW!!!! I can give you my opponent's RBs and you can get them. Split the SB earnings then? :)It's not collusion if we aren't in the same league, is it???? :rolleyes: This week: vs Ricky Williams who I need taken out!
OK, I'll deal Lewis & Edge but it'll cost you. How does 75% of your winnings sound? :yes: :lol: By the way, saw that you squeaked into the top 2000 this week in the $15 K, congrats!I've got some bye week issues this week at WR, I am going to need some breaks to keep going. Good luck this week!
Actually, YOU need to trade JLEW and Edge for RWilliams and WGreen since those are the RBs I am going against this week. :) Yes, for the first time, I BARELY got through to the next week. To be honest I am more than happy so far and with only having one RB short since the start of the year I am a bit surprised I have lasted this long.By the way, do you play fantasy basketball and if you do, do you rec a site like this one or at least better than ESPN and Yahoo? I am getting thrown into a league.
 

H.K.

Footballguy
Actually, YOU need to trade JLEW and Edge for RWilliams and WGreen since those are the RBs I am going against this week. :) Yes, for the first time, I BARELY got through to the next week. To be honest I am more than happy so far and with only having one RB short since the start of the year I am a bit surprised I have lasted this long.By the way, do you play fantasy basketball and if you do, do you rec a site like this one or at least better than ESPN and Yahoo? I am getting thrown into a league.
Sadly, I won't be able to deal Jamal & Edge, you are stuck with my bad karma.I don't know jack about hoops, primarily a football junkie., so I can't give you any advice on FF basketball leagues or websites.
 
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SeniorVBDStudent

Footballguy
The biggest hurdle is not schedule, passing problems, or injury, its that Billick will protect him in the last 3 weeks (I'm assuming they will be in play for a wildcard).I think he will do it, as he will have two more 200 yard games.

 

Dave Dodson

Footballguy
No way in hell he breaks it. He'll finish with around 1,800 IF he plays all 16. You can't say, "A guy is on pace to do this...." when one of the games was a statistical outlier of 300 yards. Get real.
Sorry, but the statistical outlier is in the books and has no bearing on what happens from here on out. He needs 124 a game from here on out, a very reachable number, not 300.
 

Stoli

Footballguy
No, because teams are going to stack 8 and 9 in the box. Did you see that the Colts are averaging 90 some yards passing a game? Are you kidding me?Let's talk about the lowest passing yards from a team in 16 games? Is it under 1500 yards because that's where Baltimore is currently heading.
Teams are already doing this and he still leads the league in rushing. You think they have been concentrating on stopping a rookie QB so far???Nothing will change about the defenses he faces, teams are already doing everything they can.Like Dave said, it's what he has to do from here on out, not what he's done.I think it is very reachable.
 

Dave Dodson

Footballguy
NAY! IT IS NAY I MUST SAY!!!!!!

Reasons Jamal has no shot at the record (drum roll please):

1) Kyle Boller - No threat of a passing game will make every rushing yard that much tougher to get.

2) Injury risk - Lewis has an injury history. He takes (and gives) a lot of punishment, but he gets hurt as a result. Exhibit A is this week's injury report.

3) Opportunity - Billick is giving a lot of carries to Taylor to spell Lewis. Watching this happen is like watching stats go down a drain.

4) Karma - I have Jamal on my fantasy team and I am like the kiss of death for whoever I draft. I had Priest last year and as soon as he got within a whisker of the TD record, everything went kablooey. Check out Edge this year if you need more proof.

There you have it, so it is, so it shall be!

PS - Hey mlwinokur, I am sure you'll keep this one in the archives, just in case ;)
1) Not sure how you can get worse than a rookie QB starting his first NFL game at Pittsburgh and Jamal averaged 4.6 YPC. If anything it will get easier, maybe stay the same, can't imagine it getting worse than what he's done already. 2) Probable with a sore shoulder? Show me a RB that goes a season without making it on the injury report a time or two over the course of a season. Hard to take a lot of punishment when no one can catch you. Recall he was the fastest RB taken in the draft in 2000, a draft that included Thomas Jones and Trung Candidate (and Shaun Alexander but he's not fast). He said coming into the season he'd be at 4.2, I think the Browns would agree.

3) "A lot of carries" equates to 24 on the season, including 10 last week. This was stated early in the week that Taylor would get a boost in carries given the heat in AZ. Those carries increased beyond what was expected given Jamal had Xrays on his shoulder. All of that was worth 10 carries compared to 21 for Jamal, a trend that simply will not continue.

4) This worries me.

 

radballs.

Footballguy
Sorry, but the statistical outlier is in the books and has no bearing on what happens from here on out. He needs 124 a game from here on out, a very reachable number, not 300.
Hmmmm. That's 11 games with an average of 124. No way in hell Jamal averages that the rest of the season! Take a look at history. Jamal's a good back, but there have been many better than him that weren't able to do it. All it takes is a couple of sub 100 games and then all of a sudden he's going to need another 200+ whopper to be back on track. He won't have the health, consistency, or the surrounding offensive team balance to pull this off. Start talking about this when he has over 1,700 yards rushing with four games to go.
 
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grouse

Footballguy
...He won't have the health, consistency, or the surrounding offensive team balance to pull this off. Start talking about this when he has over 1,700 yards rushing with four games to go.
I think there is a pretty decent chance we'll be having this discussion when you suggest.And considering only 1 opponent out of his last 4 games ranks in the Top-20 in rush defense he'll have a legitimate shot at putting up big finishing totals.
 

grouse

Footballguy
He won't have the health, consistency, or the surrounding offensive team balance to pull this off. Start talking about this when he has over 1,700 yards rushing with four games to go.
Furthermore...You say he won't have the health to pull off the record. That's a real tough one to throw out there because it's such an intangible thing to predict. How many people thought Ricky Williams would play all 16 games in 2002? Many didn't, but he did. I'm also encouraged by the fact that Jamal only plays one carpet game all season. For a big back like him, that's a real nice bonus.You question his ability to be consistent over the course of a full season. Fair enough. But as of now, he's proving you wrong.Your notion that he doesn't have enough surrounding talent to pull it off is the one that holds the least amount of merit IMO. What difference does it make? You mean to tell me that last week, or three weeks ago, four weeks ago, defensive coordinators facing the Ravens still weren't quite sure what the Ravens pass/run mix was going to be going into their game? You mean to tell me that defensive coordinators still feel you gotta watch out for that Boller kid? Please. The Ravens are the easiest read in the NFL. From the opening kickoff of the first game of the season, Billick has been outwardly verbal about the Ravens 'old-school' approach to offense. They have basically dared defenses to stack the box. They have. And it's basically been man on man defense versus offense, and kudos to the Ravens for simply out-blocking their competitors week in and week out. There is zero mystery in Baltimore. So, throw out that balance argument. It holds no water.
 

cracKer

Shawn Culcasi
3) Opportunity - Billick is giving a lot of carries to Taylor to spell Lewis. Watching this happen is like watching stats go down a drain.
The record's fallin' boys, and here's why:in '84, when Dickerson posted 2105...

* Dickerson had 379 carries (5.6 average). Lewis' pace has him at 368 carries (6.5)

* Dickerson lost 119 carries and 586 yards to backup runners. Lewis' pace has him losing 176 carries and 819 yards. not a good point Let's just say that both received near 70% of their teams total carries.

* The Rams finished with 141 more rushes than pass attempts. The Ravens are on pace for 403 passing attempts and 544 rushes (difference of 141).

* The Rams primary backup finished with 73-337. Chester Taylor is on pace for 77-355.

* In '84, Dickerson was 24 years old. Lewis recently turned 24.

...it goes on & on :shock:

My prediction is around 2000 yards. I just don't see him maintaining 6.5 yards per carry.

 

The_Man

Footballguy
Put me down for saying he gets 2000 but doesn't get the record. But I really, really wish people would stop saying that defenses are going to stack the line against Jamal and make it tougher for him to run because Boller can't beat them.Do you really think that if you've thought of that, NFL coaches haven't already had that idea too? Last week, Arizona had 8 or 9 men in the box on 50 of Baltimore's 57 offensive snaps (from this week's Billick press conference). Teams already are stacking the line! They have been all season!The guy is an unbelievable combination of power and strength, the Ravens are going to ride him all season, and with their defense, they figure to be in a lot of close games which means he'll be getting carries deep into the fourth quarter almost every week.

 

H.K.

Footballguy
The record's fallin' boys, and here's why:.......My prediction is around 2000 yards. I just don't see him maintaining 6.5 yards per carry.
:confused: You stated all these reasons why he would break it and then said he wouldn't...not too sure I get your point...
 

Dave Dodson

Footballguy
Hmmmm. That's 11 games with an average of 124. No way in hell Jamal averages that the rest of the season! Take a look at history. Jamal's a good back, but there have been many better than him that weren't able to do it. All it takes is a couple of sub 100 games and then all of a sudden he's going to need another 200+ whopper to be back on track. He won't have the health, consistency, or the surrounding offensive team balance to pull this off. Start talking about this when he has over 1,700 yards rushing with four games to go.
Hmmmm. Take a look at all the backs in the NFL, ALL OF THEM THAT HAVE EVER PLAYED THE GAME, Jamal has outrushed every single one of them with his 295 yard performance. To say that he can't average 124 becuase others that were better in your opinion couldn't do it obviously a toss away comment, he's already proven he can rewrite history. Look at his schedule, he'll have at least one more 200 yard game between now and week 16.

As far as your other comments, he's rushed for more yards than any other back this far into a season with his health, consistency and team balance. I can assure you no team will play 10 or 11 in the box against him every week, so it really can't get much harder on him than it has been rushing against 8 and 9 in the box every week. If Boller gets better from here, you can easily argue his opportunities will improve.

 

Dave Dodson

Footballguy
Do you really think that if you've thought of that, NFL coaches haven't already had that idea too? Last week, Arizona had 8 or 9 men in the box on 50 of Baltimore's 57 offensive snaps (from this week's Billick press conference). Teams already are stacking the line! They have been all season!
:thumbup: Maybe this will end the, "Gee all they have to do is play 8 or 9 in the box to stop Jamal, how hard can it be?" comments.The glaring difference between perception and reality.
 

H.K.

Footballguy
The real question is who can stop Dodson's avatar, he's been running non-stop all season. Check out the leg drive on that guy!

 

rabidfireweasel

Footballguy
Do you really think that if you've thought of that, NFL coaches haven't already had that idea too? Last week, Arizona had 8 or 9 men in the box on 50 of Baltimore's 57 offensive snaps (from this week's Billick press conference). Teams already are stacking the line! They have been all season!
What ARizona does and its subsequent effect in no way relates to what a real NFL team does.People that are saying 8-9 men in the box will prevent the record aren't saying it will stop him from incredible production or an amazing year. I am saying that 8-9 men in the box, every game, for the rest of the season will limit him to less than a 120 yards per game average for the rest of the year.
 
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Stoli

Footballguy
Hmmmm. That's 11 games with an average of 124. No way in hell Jamal averages that the rest of the season! Take a look at history. Jamal's a good back, but there have been many better than him that weren't able to do it. All it takes is a couple of sub 100 games and then all of a sudden he's going to need another 200+ whopper to be back on track. He won't have the health, consistency, or the surrounding offensive team balance to pull this off. Start talking about this when he has over 1,700 yards rushing with four games to go.
Let's look at Jamal's rushing yards so far...Week 1: 69

Week 2: 295

Week 3: 132

Week 4: 115

Week 5: Bye

Week 6: 131

He has already out rushed 124 yards 3 out of 5 games this year, with 1 other game only 9 yards off the pace.

So where exactly do you not see him averaging 124 per game? More talk about the Ravens not having a passing game right? Well like I said in a previous post, they haven't had a passing game all year and he still leads the league in rushing. Not sure how that will suddenly make an impact when it hasn't mattered through 5 games.

 

cracKer

Shawn Culcasi
The record's fallin' boys, and here's why:

.......

My prediction is around 2000 yards. I just don't see him maintaining 6.5 yards per carry.
:confused: You stated all these reasons why he would break it and then said he wouldn't...not too sure I get your point...
Not too sure I had one :D I was noting the comparisons as I looked them up, some of which are favorable...some not (with a failed attempt at humor along the way). One thing that Jamal Lewis does not have that Dickerson did is the Rams offensive line from back in the day. Turning Charles White and Greg Bell into 1000 yard rushers when Dickerson left was quite a feat.

 

yetiknight

Footballguy
If he does it I will be surprised.

His matchups are favorable.

He is the whole offense.

His defense keeps him on the field.

But there is one thing that makes me think he won't do it.

It has never been done before.

It is definately too early to make a call on this subject and almost everyone post saying he will break the record is from some fantasy football hopeful with him on their team.

I, however, drafted Tiki Barber :wall: and prefer to be bitter and pessimistic about Lewis' chances.

Truthfully, their defense is unbelievable. It is alot better than people know. Better than Tampa, better than Carolina. Don't believe me, watch Ray Lewis play sometime. He is the best. Jamal will get opportunities. But I have to believe at least 3 or 4 teams will show up and stop him for 4 quarters. Marvin Lewis could have something, but I doubt it. I think it comes down to whether or not Jamal has a couple more huge games to make up for the inevitable slow days he will have.

 
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cracKer

Shawn Culcasi
Truthfully, their defense is unbelievable. It is alot better than people know. Better than Tampa, better than Carolina. Don't believe me, watch Ray Lewis play sometime. He is the best.
This statement just strikes me as funny...sorry :cool:
 

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