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Will moving the XP back mean no more fake XPs? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Black
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dehaven123
Footballguy
allow me to answer your question, with a question.
generally speaking, if instead of 4th and 2, it's 4th and 15, does it mean teams are less likely to go for it on 4th down?
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
Yep. Lots of folks seem worried about this, but I am not in the least. You almost never see it, because it's just as easy to convert from the two as it is to fake and convert from the 19 or wherever your kicker ends up getting the ball.
I'd gladly trade the 1 in a 1000 chance of an interesting play (fake XP) for a play that was interesting most or all of the time (longer XP attempt, or two pt conversion).
I think the bigger impact will be a LOT fewer XP attempts in general though. Most teams should attempt two pointers more than they do as it is. If the one point was no longer nearly automatic, it would make even more sense to go for two most of the time.
I'd gladly trade the 1 in a 1000 chance of an interesting play (fake XP) for a play that was interesting most or all of the time (longer XP attempt, or two pt conversion).
I think the bigger impact will be a LOT fewer XP attempts in general though. Most teams should attempt two pointers more than they do as it is. If the one point was no longer nearly automatic, it would make even more sense to go for two most of the time.
Village Idiot
Pokerguy
The closest I could quickly come to do a comparison for a 37 yards XP attempt was the FG accuracy for all NFL teams in 2013 from 30-40 yards.
NFL teams made 265 of 295 of those for a percentage of 89.83% which would equal .8983 points per XP attempt.
NFL teams attempted 69, 2 point conversions and made 33 of them for a percentage of 47.83% which would equal .9566 points per attempt.
The numbers will be different if someone has the numbers for all 37 yards FG attempts instead, and it would be better to have more than 1 year of data but, doing it quickly says go for 2 in most cases.
There will always be exceptions like scoring a TD to take an 8 point lead late in a game, so getting the XP makes it a 2 score game.
Since it's 89.83% using these numbers to take a 2 score lead vs. 47.83% to make it a 2 score lead by going for 2 you obviously elect to kick the XP.
NFL teams made 265 of 295 of those for a percentage of 89.83% which would equal .8983 points per XP attempt.
NFL teams attempted 69, 2 point conversions and made 33 of them for a percentage of 47.83% which would equal .9566 points per attempt.
The numbers will be different if someone has the numbers for all 37 yards FG attempts instead, and it would be better to have more than 1 year of data but, doing it quickly says go for 2 in most cases.
There will always be exceptions like scoring a TD to take an 8 point lead late in a game, so getting the XP makes it a 2 score game.
Since it's 89.83% using these numbers to take a 2 score lead vs. 47.83% to make it a 2 score lead by going for 2 you obviously elect to kick the XP.
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