Will Reggie Bush ever have more than 275 carries in a season? (1 Viewer)

[roarlions]

This question is prompted by a new dynasty league I joined, which awards 0.3 points per rushing attempt by RBs. However, it is possibly an important question for all types of dynasty leagues, and it doesn't only apply to Reggie.

Looking at the recent projections by Dodds, there are a few RBs who are projected to have less than 200 rushing attempts this season. Bush is projected for 160, Jones-Drew for 170, Marion Barber for 175, Norwood for 145. Do you think any/all of these backs will eventually become the type of backs that receive more than 275 rushes in a season, or are all of them destined to remain in roles where they receive no more than 200 -225 rushes in a season? Bush certainly makes up for his lack of rushing attempts in his number of receptions, but in the type of league I described it appears that this doesn't make up for the points he loses by having so few rushes.

I'm interested in a general discussion of what people expect from these players in the future. Thanks.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Think Jones-Drew is the most likely of those guys to eventually exceed that number

 

[DoubleG]

Without crunching the numbers, I would say that Bush does come with valid concerns. Will he put up decent fantasy points on a regular basis? Yes - some weeks even downright studly. But I do think, as long as McAllister is in NO with him, you run the risk of seeing his average production cut into, as Deuce is the RB (especially down close to the goal line). Bush is a tremendous weapon - but he is only 1 of many weapons the Saints have. That, coupled with the afore mentioned RBBC-type situation makes him less than a stud #1 RB - but still a very capable RB2. I would love him as my RB2 - but as far as a 1 (again, only assuming Deuce stays in NO and stays healthy), I'd have some concerns - especially given your scoring system.

 

[Weiner Dog]

As a Bush owner, I hope not.

250 carries and 100 receptions would be perfect.

 

[fsufan]

bush is the next faulk

20 to 25 touches(rush and rec) a games

1000 rushing

1000 rec

 

[TheBradyBunch]

Check this out:

http://vids.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseacti...eoid=1279277566

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

As a Bush owner, I hope not.250 carries and 100 receptions would be perfect.

It wouldn't shock me if he never exceeds 275. Faulk in St. Louis never went over 253 as the primary RB, and he/they did OK.

 

[Tau837]

I doubt he'll ever have 275 carries. However, I think he has excellent potential to be a regular top 10 RB in most fantasy scoring systems. A different system like yours may offer opportunity in getting Bush now at a discount.

Here is McAllister's base salary info from nflpa.org:

2006 1450000.00

2007 2600000.00

2008 3600000.00

2009 5200000.00

2010 6200000.00

2011 7100000.00

2012 8100000.00

I doubt this contract will stick after 2008. He will be 30 at that point. I would expect him to be traded or cut, depending on how well he performs over the next two seasons. And, knowing that is coming, I'd expect the touches at RB to slowly shift more to Bush over the next two years.

As to Bush's fantasy potential, consider this:

Games 1-8: 80/200/0 rushing (2.5 ypc) and 47/318/0 (6.8 ypr) receiving on 60 targets = 51.8 fantasy points

Games 9-16: 74/358/6 rushing (4.8 ypc) and 42/430/2 (10.2 ypr) receiving on 61 targets = 126.8 fantasy points

And note that the second half split includes week 17 against Carolina when Bush played only one quarter. Still, project his second half to 16 games and you get 148/716/12 rushing and 82/860/4...

Do I think Bush will produce like the second half for all of next season? Well, the TDs and the yards per carry and reception may tough to duplicate, but then again I'd expect more than 148 carries and very possibly more than 82 catches.

 

[roarlions]

I doubt he'll ever have 275 carries. However, I think he has excellent potential to be a regular top 10 RB in most fantasy scoring systems. A different system like yours may offer opportunity in getting Bush now at a discount.

Actually, I'm thinking it is possible that someone will draft him in the top 3 picks despite how low he scores in the system I described. I'm really interested to see what happens, as I have the 4th pick.

As to Bush's fantasy potential, consider this:Games 1-8: 80/200/0 rushing (2.5 ypc) and 47/318/0 (6.8 ypr) receiving on 60 targets = 51.8 fantasy pointsGames 9-16: 74/358/6 rushing (4.8 ypc) and 42/430/2 (10.2 ypr) receiving on 61 targets = 126.8 fantasy pointsAnd note that the second half split includes week 17 against Carolina when Bush played only one quarter. Still, project his second half to 16 games and you get 148/716/12 rushing and 82/860/4...Do I think Bush will produce like the second half for all of next season? Well, the TDs and the yards per carry and reception may tough to duplicate, but then again I'd expect more than 148 carries and very possibly more than 82 catches.

Dodds' projections are fairly close to the projections you get using the stats from Bush's 2nd half of last season. Dodds has Reggie with 160 rushes, 656 rushing yards, 85 receptions, 782 receiving yards and a total of 11 TDs. I plugged these stats into the scoring system for the league I described and Bush ends up with 277 points, which puts him at RB15. By comparison, using Dodds' projections for LJ puts him at RB1 with 466 points. That is why I'm hesitant to spend an early pick on Bush, even if his number of rushes and rushing yards increase significantly 2 - 3 years from now.I really don't want this to just focus on Reggie though, as I pointed out that there are other young players who are currently in a similar position. One poster already suggested that Jones-Drew is the most likely to reach 275 rushing attempts in the future. I'd like to hear if anyone else thinks that will be the case, or if Barber III or Norwood may also approach that level of rushes in the future.

 

[mlball77]

I think Barber and MJD are most likely to eclipse 275 carries in a season. I wouldn't rule it out for Bush either though, its simply less likely, imho.

 

[CalBear]

Any league that awards points for RB carries but not for receptions needs to be shut down.

 

[ChampBailey24]

I doubt he'll ever have 275 carries. However, I think he has excellent potential to be a regular top 10 RB in most fantasy scoring systems. A different system like yours may offer opportunity in getting Bush now at a discount.

Actually, I'm thinking it is possible that someone will draft him in the top 3 picks despite how low he scores in the system I described. I'm really interested to see what happens, as I have the 4th pick.

As to Bush's fantasy potential, consider this:Games 1-8: 80/200/0 rushing (2.5 ypc) and 47/318/0 (6.8 ypr) receiving on 60 targets = 51.8 fantasy pointsGames 9-16: 74/358/6 rushing (4.8 ypc) and 42/430/2 (10.2 ypr) receiving on 61 targets = 126.8 fantasy pointsAnd note that the second half split includes week 17 against Carolina when Bush played only one quarter. Still, project his second half to 16 games and you get 148/716/12 rushing and 82/860/4...Do I think Bush will produce like the second half for all of next season? Well, the TDs and the yards per carry and reception may tough to duplicate, but then again I'd expect more than 148 carries and very possibly more than 82 catches.

Dodds' projections are fairly close to the projections you get using the stats from Bush's 2nd half of last season. Dodds has Reggie with 160 rushes, 656 rushing yards, 85 receptions, 782 receiving yards and a total of 11 TDs. I plugged these stats into the scoring system for the league I described and Bush ends up with 277 points, which puts him at RB15. By comparison, using Dodds' projections for LJ puts him at RB1 with 466 points. That is why I'm hesitant to spend an early pick on Bush, even if his number of rushes and rushing yards increase significantly 2 - 3 years from now.I really don't want this to just focus on Reggie though, as I pointed out that there are other young players who are currently in a similar position. One poster already suggested that Jones-Drew is the most likely to reach 275 rushing attempts in the future. I'd like to hear if anyone else thinks that will be the case, or if Barber III or Norwood may also approach that level of rushes in the future.

1400 yards + 11 TDs = RB15? That scoring system is downright awful....

 

[CalBear]

1400 yards + 11 TDs = RB15? That scoring system is downright awful....

Maybe Ricky Williams is the commish.

 

[roarlions]

Any league that awards points for RB carries but not for receptions needs to be shut down.

All positions receive points for receptions in the league, but RBs receive about the same number of points for receptions as they do for rushing attempts. As a result, a difference of 150 rushing attempts can't be made up by having more receptions than other RBs. Add in the fact that LT, Jackson, Westbrook, and other RBs have nearly as many receptions as Reggie and he is still at a big disadvantage due to his lack of carries.

 

[nygiants56]

Barber 3 isn't likely to see that many carries. First, we're not sure he can handle that workload.

secondly, JJ will cut into his production, big time.

Jones-Drew is thisclose to taking that starting spot in Jax, and never looking back. When and if Fraud Taylor goes down, it's Drew's job to lose..

 

[WhoDat]

If Bush is playing for an OC and or HC that know how to use him, then, no, he will never see 275 carries. Total touches, yes, but not carries.