Will Reggie Wayne Surpass Harrison? (1 Viewer)

[chihawk]

Will this year be the year that Reggie Wayne bypasses Marvin Harrison as the colts leading receiver?

According to projections and WR rankings it shouldn't be, but I'm not so sure. I have included a table at the bottom showing all the relevant statistics referred to in this write-up. Included are also the percentages of projected pass distribution for 2006 between Wayne and Harrison. I didn’t include the actual numbers (since they are for paying subscribers only).

So, I took a look at the history of Wayne, Harrison, and Manning since Wayne joined the Colts in 2001. Wayne started out with a pretty minimal impact to the team. Only 7.9% of receptions and 8.4% of Manning passing yards went to Wayne, compared to 31.8% of receptions and 36.9% of the yards went to Harrison. Ever since then percentage of Manning's passes to Wayne have increased each season. In fact Wayne's share of receptions has pretty much gone up by approx 5% each year (reaching 27.2% last year). While Harrison has not continuously decreased his share of the receptions, he seems to have reached a plateau around 25% the last few years, and Wayne actually had more receptions than Harrison last year...so maybe he is already their leading receiver…but Wayne is still WR15 compared to Harrison being WR6.

While Manning’s projected to increase his completions from last year (probably due to the loss of an established RB), Wayne's projected to decrease his receptions (a drop from 27.2% to 23.9% of team total) while Harrison maintains his plateau and increase his receptions along with Manning’s increased production (25.1% of team total).

Similarly, with yards, Wayne has been steadily increasing the percentage of Manning's passing yards (reaching 28.2% last year), but is projected this year to decrease that percentage to 26%. Harrison's percentage of Manning's passing yards have been a little bit up and down, but had a solid 30.6% last year and is projected to have 29.2% this upcoming year. On a side note, it was interesting to see that when Manning had his monster year in 2004 with 4557 yds, Harrison actually had his worst yardage year (1113 yds, 24.4% of the total yards).

In the TD department, Wayne has definitely been behind Harrison. While Wayne has been mostly been ranging from 15-25% of Manning’s TD passes, Harrison has been pretty steady catching more than a third of Manning’s TD passes. The projections are calling for Wayne to increase his TD projection this year to get up back to 25% (compared to 18% last year).

With Manning's stats projected to increase compared to last year and the loss of James who was a great receiving RB, it really surprises me that the projections would call for Wayne's percentages of the offense to decrease compared to last year. Even with Harrison's precise route running (he is probably one of the greatest pure route-runners), his age is going to become a factor at some point. I don't know that this will be the year that Wayne outperforms Harrison in fantasy points, but he already passed him in receptions last year, and with a steady increase in receptions and yards, I wouldn't be surprised if he continues that trend and passes Harrison as their top fantasy WR this year.

Reggie Wayne

YEAR REC %REC YDS %YDS TD %TDs

2001 27 7.9% 345 8.4% 0 0.0%

2002 49 12.5% 716 17.0% 4 14.8%

2003 68 17.9% 838 19.6% 7 24.1%

2004 77 22.9% 1210 26.6% 12 24.5%

2005 83 27.2% 1055 28.2% 5 17.9%

2006 ### 23.9% ### 26.0% ### 25.8%

Marvin Harrison

YEAR REC %REC YDS %YDS TD %TDs

2001 109 31.8% 1524 36.9% 15 57.7%

2002 143 36.5% 1722 41.0% 11 40.7%

2003 94 24.8% 1272 29.8% 10 34.5%

2004 86 25.6% 1113 24.4% 15 30.6%

2005 82 26.9% 1146 30.6% 12 42.9%

2006 ### 25.1% ### 29.2% ### 35.5%

Peyton Manning

YEAR CMP ATT PCT YDS TD

2001 343 547 62.7 4131 26

2002 392 591 66.3 4200 27

2003 379 566 67 4267 29

2004 336 497 67.6 4557 49

2005 305 453 67.3 3747 28

 

[tytyty]

nice, hope to get him at 3.09 in a ten teamer

 

[Justloveit]

I'm not sure how this would affect the stats, but don't forget Harrison sat out the end of the season the last 2 yrs. I'm not sure if Indy will be that dominant this yr that they'll be able to do that again.

 

[Biabreakable]

good post.

I think it is certainly possible that Wayne surpases Harrison this year in FPs. I have them being equal in my projections except for TDs. However the trend definitly shows Waynes production increasing and Harrisons decreasing over the past 3 years.

I expect them both to increase in 2006 because I expect the Colts to pass more than they have the past 2 years. Rhodes/Addai will still get the Rb looks Edge used to get but that part of the pie will probobly be more divided. I think Dallas Clark will see a large spike in targets. Other TEs will still get some targets as well. Stokley and other Wr will get some looks but I don't expect much 3 WR sets because I think the Colts will use the 2 TE set much more to compensate for not having Edge in as a blocker. At least until the Rbs can prove capable of picking up the blitz reliably.

What it looks like to me here is that FBGs has averaged the last 3 years pie for % of completions projected by Manning. That is one way to do it. But the trending does show Waynes pie increasing substaintaly while Harrisons stays pretty flat.

My projection range for Wayne and Harrison has thier performance last year as being close to the low end of what I expect they will do. I think they will both catch 80-100 balls this year as the offense increases pass attempts due to not having Edge. I don't put this into my projection range for them but I more expect Wayne to fall closer to the high side of this range than I expect Harrison to because of the upward trending by Wayne over the last 3 years.

I will not be suprised at all if Wayne catches more than 90 this year.

TDs I still see Harrison as more likely to score than Wayne is.

 

[Black&Gold]

I'm targeting Wayne this year. I look for him to put up as good or better stats than Harrison. Plus, you can get him a round or two later. The Colts passing game is going to be close to 2004 form this year. Look for Rhodes, not Addai, to be in the lineup more than not for his veteren pass blocking.

 

[elcohiba]

If you could have both of them, would you do it??

 

[FatRader]

Excellent analysis. I too think 2006 is the year Wayne is a better Fantasy WR than Harrison. And given where both will be drafted, Wayne represents value.

With Harrison over 34 and his numbers decreasing the past 3 years (albeit slightly) I don't think projecting Harrison's stats to plateau is the right call.

When looking at guys with similar numbers (and in recs and yds, these 2 couldn't be much closer), I like to consider whether or not each player has had their "career" year yet. At 34, I think it's safe to say Harrison had his career year in 2002, and at 27 Wayne has not has his yet. So this year, I'm targeting Wayne over Harrison.

 

[Todem]

I'm targeting Wayne this year. I look for him to put up as good or better stats than Harrison. Plus, you can get him a round or two later. The Colts passing game is going to be close to 2004 form this year. Look for Rhodes, not Addai, to be in the lineup more than not for his veteren pass blocking.

You will not get Wayne past the 3rd in a 12 team draft unless your drafting with weak owners.Mid 3rd is where is is going on average. Redraft or Dynasty.Harrison will still lead this team but not by much.Looks like the same situation as in Arizona 1 and 1A.Still rather have Marvin who has done it for 8 season to Reggies one. Marvin will catch more TD's

 

[chihawk]

If you could have both of them, would you do it??

I probably wouldn't reach for that combination, but if you end up with finding value in both of them then I would do it. If you are in a 12 team league I don't know how you would be able to get both of them without reaching (unless you are trading picks or players). Harrison is usually gone by the end of the 2nd round, and Wayne gets taken by the end of the 3rd.I have the first pick in my draft, so I could potentially get both of them with the 2.12 and 3.01 picks, but that is not some that I am targeting.

 

[JAMMIN]

In a 12 team league is taking him at the end of the 2nd round a reach?

 

[Polish Hammer]

In my league (14 team, double serpentine, PPR, start 3 WR) I got him as part of my pairing at the rd 3/rd 4 turn. I got him and Driver there. Draft was August 12.

 

[chihawk]

In a 12 team league is taking him at the end of the 2nd round a reach?

I would say it's a slight reach towards the of the 2nd round...but nothing outrageous. It depends on your draft too. If a lot of RBs go in both first and second round, then there will be better WR value picks towards the end of the 2nd. If a lot of WRs go in the second round, then there should be some good RB picks towards the end of the 2nd.It would be an interesting option to grab both Harrison and Wayne at the turn with the 2.12/3.01 picks...you know that is going to generate some points....along with whatever RB you select at #1.

 

[facook]

In my league (14 team, double serpentine, PPR, start 3 WR) I got him as part of my pairing at the rd 3/rd 4 turn. I got him and Driver there. Draft was August 12.

Exactly the pairing I'm targeting in 3rd/4th of my 12 teamer. If I get out of the first four rounds with James/Caddy/Wayne/Driver, I'm feeling golden. (QBs have more value in our league due to scoring system, so Caddy might just fall to 2.03).

 

[cj*]

I have Boldin, Harrison, and Wayne as my top 3 with Glenn backing them up.

I have Manning as my qb. I know that I have all my eggs in one basket, but I like the basket.

12 teamer, I picked 12th and made some trades.

1.12 Manning

2.11 Boldin

3.2 Harrison

3.12 Wayne

Don't ask about rb's

 

[CravenM]

I've watched their offense a bunch and I think ultimately the comparison between MHarrison and RWayne is not about statistics, trends and age: it's about how the defense plays against the Colts.

Peyton said last year that they ran a lot more because teams were double covering Wayne and Harrison which left a lot of opportunity for Edge. Last night, Peyton kept finding the single covered receiver (including the TEs) or whoever worked inside the slot. As always, he made it seem easy.

I would predict that if Wayne goes off in a few games then defenses will double cover him and Harrison will start getting a lot more work. The Colt offense is a machine. The only thing I've ever seen come close to stopping is to pack the line with 2 more rushers than the Colts have available blockers and knock the stuffing out of Peyton over and over. He's certainly going to get off the occassional pass (and bomb to Harrison) but he can be rattled into making snap throws - he doesn't like to go down on the hard fake turf.

 

[CravenM]

I have Boldin, Harrison, and Wayne as my top 3 with Glenn backing them up.I have Manning as my qb. I know that I have all my eggs in one basket, but I like the basket.12 teamer, I picked 12th and made some trades.1.12 Manning2.11 Boldin3.2 Harrison3.12 WayneDon't ask about rb's

Bold move - I might not have the cajones to do that because I'd end up starting Fred Taylor and TJ Duckett.

 

[ericttspikes]

I have Boldin, Harrison, and Wayne as my top 3 with Glenn backing them up.I have Manning as my qb. I know that I have all my eggs in one basket, but I like the basket.12 teamer, I picked 12th and made some trades.1.12 Manning2.11 Boldin3.2 Harrison3.12 WayneDon't ask about rb's

I've been debating grabbing them both also. Peyton has been a rock, but I shudder to think what a Sorgi led Colts team would do to these guys production if this is the year Manning gets his bell rung. He sure was under fire during the playoffs and Edge was pretty good at protection. Should be interesting to see what D's do against him this year. I suspect a ton of blitzes until the Colts prove to show they can stop it. I could be wrong, but it seems like Wayne is better after the catch than Marvin. Maybe he will prove to be dangerous if Manning is forced to get rid of the ball quickly. If Stokley is healthy, I suspect he'll have a nice year too.