CONGRATS TO WILL SHIELDS ON FUTURE HoF...
the flip side to the LJ downcasting is that occasionally RBs have rare talent to transcend their OL...
when LT came up the team was not known for having a stellar OL... LT does have an extraordinary combo of RB attributes, but its not like LJ is a piker... & perhaps we could think of other RBs that have transcended OL (does gore have top 3 OL?), not having a pro bowl QB...
if huard is starter, not sure if he is or isn't as good as last year? in 06, its not like defenses were trying to stop the pass & daring KC to run...

so he already proved himself in difficult circumstances (the loss not only of roaf but green at times last season) LAST season... the loss of shields could hurt, but as good as shields was (i agree, he has resume to be HoF lock), will it drastically cut his TDs in half?
its not like other KC skill positions are weaponless... t-gon is one of the top receiving TEs in NFL history...
pessimistic forecasts aren't emphasizing the ability of the team to reload via draft... in the spot they are at, they could have a shot at 2nd tier WR like bowe or meachem, OR one of top OGs in draft (like blalock or grubbs)... rookie OG won't have to be as good as perennial pro bowl OL to be competent, effective starter... look at how good jahri evans did for NO (made all rookie teams as 5th rounder, i think), & STL found a starter in setterstrom with 7th round compensatory pick)... steven jackson had benefit of far better surrounding skill position talent, but for a significant part of last season rams OL started second year RT barron, second year "rookie" richie ingognito (broken knee cap sidelined him & was effective redshirt season in 05) at RG, practice squad castoff brett romberg at OC, aforemention rookie setterstrom at LG, & either a declining todd steussie or the immortal adam goldberg at LT...
the D could very likely be better... tamba hali year of NFL experience, & they added nap harris AND donnie edwards to LB corp (plus derrick johnson was injured & missed time last year)... edwards is older but continues to play at a high level... better defense could mean offense could have the ball more often, with shorter fields than in 06 (& 05, etc)...
i have seen at different places in this thread LJ be downcasted for BOTH having TOO many carries previous two seasons, & for fact that he might lose carries this season? you can't have it both ways...

if he had too many carries in half season of 05 & 06 (of course he did), that a reduction of carries, decreasing risk of his breaking down, should be viewed as a POSITIVE... unless some are predicting a reduction in carries on order of 50%, i don't see a reason to forecast a cut in half of his TDs... it is possible that he may not be a top 3 RB going forward, for those trying to guage his value... but if he was top 5, with likes of gore, that would be very good...
again, shields future HoFer, but will loss of one player cause him to plummet from #2 RB all the way out of top 10 (where - #15, #20?)...
the problematic thing for those citing loss of vermiel & his system as likely to have negative impact on LJ... he had a top two season LAST year with herm edwards as HC... if edwards had gone to SD instead of KC, would we be drastically revising LTs projections down, because he was no longer in "schottenheimer" system?