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Will Smith (1 Viewer)

Sleeperz

Footballguy
Will Smith was projected by every major IDP site to finish inside the top 10 this year, at minimum. So far he has been a major dissapointment. I would love to believe that he will wake up soon and start putting up numbers at least close to what we all thought he would. But, when I have a player (any position) who is majorly underperforming week after week, I have no choice but to delve inside the numbers to see exactly what could be going wrong.

There are plenty of reasons for the high rankings that he got this year.

1. Solid rookie season (04), only started in 4 of 16 games but had enough playing time to make an impact.

2. He improved nicely in his second season (05), started in 9 games but still had to split time in a rotation with Howard, finished inside the top 20 in almost all scoring systems. (not bad for splitting time)

3. Finally starting off the season as a secure starter, thought to be an every down defensive end, Darren Howard gone to the Eagles.

Well, most of us saw #3 as the turning point. Smith primed for a monster year with noone to slow him down. With numbers like he was putting up when splitting time, what could this guy do if given the chance to start every game?

So far, no good. Which is why I took at hard look at what he actually did in each game since entering the league. What I found took me by surprise a little.

1. His best 3 games (arguably) since starting his career in 04...

(04) week 17 - 5 tackles 1.5 sacks 1 FF 1 FR

(05) week 6 - 7 tackles 1 sack

(05) week 11 - 6 tackles 1.5 sacks 1 ff

2. Has never had a multiple sack game, unless you inclue the few games where he had a half a sack.

3. Averaged just under 2 solo stops per game in 04 (granted he only started 4 games but had playing time)

4. Averaged 3 solo stops per game in 05 (started in 9 games, more playing time than in 04)

5. Averaging 2 solo stops per game thus far in 06.

6. He is on pace to record 32 solos, 13 assists, 8 sacks, 3 FRs, 5 PD's (just slightly above what he finished with in his rookie season, not anywhere near top ten material)

Taking a look at his matchups through week 6, he probably should have had much better numbers to this point. Especially against the Falcons and Eagles. Looking ahead, the road seems ok for matchups but not exactly a schedule that you would ask for. He does get the Falcons again, Bengals and the Cowboys.

After starting off slightly better than average this season and slumping the last 4 games (more or less), I think it may be time to take a stronger look at him. He seems more like a situational DL from a FF perspective after really looking into what he has done. The one plus that he does have going for him.... he started off slowly last year also.

Now I could be way off on him, but I rarely go out on a limb unless I know its sturdy enough to hold the weight.

Sleeperz

 
:goodposting: sleeperz.

I agree that it's time to take a hard look at Will Smith. You raise a lot of the same issues I did in the pre-season writeups -- except I concluded that he was ready to combine the improved run support skill he showed in 2005 with his fine situational pass rushing over 2004-2005 and make the leap to elite two-way DE status.

The question for me: Which is the real Will Smith?

2006: Week 1-3 (8-2-3) >>> projects to 43-11-16

2006: Week 4-6 (4-3-0) >>> projects to 21-3-0

The last two games are what bothers me -- I think TB and PHI were good matchups. And the run support stats are lacking overall. With no science behind it, I like to target players who make 35-40 solo tackles after subtracting sacks as potential elite two-way linemen for standard leagues. Smith fit that bill in 2005.

I expect him to rebound but have tempered my expectations a little. Like Osi, he's hanging out around #30 in my leagues with plenty of DTs and Ryan Denneys/Chris Kelsays to run down. He's not going to approach my #4 ranking, but a return to 04/05 form should get him near the top 12.

 
Good breakdown of the numbers Sleeperz. Now the question remains, why is Smith not performing up to expectations?

I think the main difference is that the Saints are playing much better this year than the past 2 years on both sides of the ball. Saints defenders are not getting the TOP advantage right now that we are used to them getting over the past 2 years. The offense is more balanced than it was before and sustaining longer drives. The defense as a whole is playing better as well and getting off the field quicker than they were last year.

Fujita is playing SLB on the same side as Smith and has been making a lot of plays consistently. Unless Smith is playing RDE now off the weak side? I thought that was Grants position but depth chart on NFL.com is saying Grant is the LDE and Smtih is the RDE now? I have noticed that Scott Shanle has started making more tackles these past 3 games. I'm still uncertain right now which side the DEs are lining up on right now.

The Saints scheme is different than the past 2 years. From what I have read the DEs have more contain responsibilities now than they may have had before and are funneling plays to filling outside Lbers as well as the SS on Smiths side.

While I understand the reasoning for optimism for Smiths continued progression in the preseason it was also based on poor offensive/defensive performane of past years and on a different defensive scheme. Both of these things have changed. So while I think Smith is a quality player after 6 weeks it looks like this is how Smith will perform moving forward. I don't see reasons for that to change.

Charles Grant on the other side underperformed in the early going as well. But has started to put up better numbers now that he isn't splitting time with Rob Ninkovich.

 
I almost wish I didn't own this guy in every one of my leagues. I'd be targeting this "major disappointment" who's on pace for 32 solos and 9 sacks. Sheesh. Imagine if he reverts to form.

 
Can anyone clarify which side of the defense Smith/Grant are playing right now?

I do think it matters for matchups against LT or RT and which DE is playing opposite the strong side with the TE.

I know nfl.com depth charts are sometimes wrong.

ETA- every time I have watched the Saints Grant was playing against the LT as the RDE. I have not heard about a change to that.

 
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I almost wish I didn't own this guy in every one of my leagues. I'd be targeting this "major disappointment" who's on pace for 32 solos and 9 sacks. Sheesh. Imagine if he reverts to form.
You are missing the point completely I think. 99% of the IDP population thought his numbers would improve greatly this year and he has been nothing more than avarage to date. So yes, he is a "major disappointment" when you look at where he was projected and probably taken in most drafts this year. Sleeperz
 
I almost wish I didn't own this guy in every one of my leagues. I'd be targeting this "major disappointment" who's on pace for 32 solos and 9 sacks. Sheesh. Imagine if he reverts to form.
You are missing the point completely I think. 99% of the IDP population thought his numbers would improve greatly this year and he has been nothing more than avarage to date. So yes, he is a "major disappointment" when you look at where he was projected and probably taken in most drafts this year. Sleeperz
With all due respect, I think it's you who missed my point. So I figured I'd just wait a few weeks and let Will Smith make it for me...Smith, Will NOS DE

vs Ravens Sun 1:00 p.m. ET

2.00 1 Forced Fumbles

3.00 3 Tackles

1.50 3 Assists

6.50 Subtotal

Smith, Will NOS DE

at Buccaneers Sun 1:00 p.m. ET

2.00 1 Forced Fumbles

3.00 3 Tackles

2.00 4 Assists

6.00 2.0 Sacked a QB

13.00 Subtotal

:P

In all seriousness, DE is just one of those positions that you just have to get used to seeing some lean periods in...even with the best of 'em. This has obvious advantages in IDP leagues where exasperated owners can be exploited in trades after a few brutally unproductive weeks. The window has no doubt snapped shut by now in Smith's case, but I think he would have been an outstanding "buy low" candidate.

 
He seems to be turning things around like he did last season which I mentioned. The game against the Bucs was his best game since starting his career in the NFL a couple years ago. His first multi-sack game too. Heck, he only had 2 solo tackles against the Bucs in their first meeting this year. I hope he keeps it up, I have held onto him this long hoping of some form of last year.

Not to go back and forth with this but, the point you made was that he was doing fine with what he had done so far this season, before the last two games. He clearly wasnt doing anything near what most of us thought he would be doing, which is why I said you were missing my point. Ive been running with IDP leagues for over 12 years so I know that there really isnt many DL that can keep up any type of scoring pace. Like you said its something that is going to happen regardless of who we are talking about. They all flop at one point or another. Its when they flop for 4-5 weeks in a row that causes some to throw the red flag up.

Lets hope he can keep it goin. Maybe he came here and read my post. ;)

 
onionsack said:
Sleeperz said:
Lets hope he can keep it goin. Maybe he came here and read my post. ;)
Amen, brother. Now could you put in an ill word about Terrell Suggs? :D
Funny thing is, I have Suggs also in my main league riding the bench. Give me a day to sort through his stats and see how I can bring him down to earth. If you told me I would be starting Tamba Hali and Mathias Kiwanuka over Smith and Suggs in the beginning of the season, I would have said you were crazy. :P Sleeperz
 
Lets hope he can keep it goin. Maybe he came here and read my post. ;)
Amen, brother. Now could you put in an ill word about Terrell Suggs? :D
Whatever you said, it's working. :thumbup: Suggs, Terrell BAL DEvs Steelers Sun 1:00 p.m. ET 6.00 6 Tackles6.00 2.0 Sacked a QB12.00 Subtotal and Smith is continuing to shine too:Smith, Will NOS DEat Falcons Sun 1:00 p.m. ET 2.00 1 Forced Fumbles 1.00 1 Passes Defensed 5.00 5 Tackles 6.00 2.0 Sacked a QB 14.00 Subtotal Smith is now at #9 amongst DE and Suggs is #14. Getting there. :yes:
 
Smith got hurt this week, too. He left the ATL game twice due to injury, and had no more stats after leaving for the second time, early in the 3rd quarter. Anyone know what the injury was, or how serious it is?

 
Smith got hurt this week, too. He left the ATL game twice due to injury, and had no more stats after leaving for the second time, early in the 3rd quarter. Anyone know what the injury was, or how serious it is?
Payton didn't even mention Smith when talking about injuries post-game yesterday, or this morning on SIRIUS. Only injury he talked about was Simoneau with a broken bone in his hand.
 
Lets hope he can keep it goin. Maybe he came here and read my post. ;)
Amen, brother. Now could you put in an ill word about Terrell Suggs? :D
Whatever you said, it's working. :thumbup: Suggs, Terrell BAL DEvs Steelers Sun 1:00 p.m. ET 6.00 6 Tackles6.00 2.0 Sacked a QB12.00 Subtotal and Smith is continuing to shine too:Smith, Will NOS DEat Falcons Sun 1:00 p.m. ET 2.00 1 Forced Fumbles 1.00 1 Passes Defensed 5.00 5 Tackles 6.00 2.0 Sacked a QB 14.00 Subtotal Smith is now at #9 amongst DE and Suggs is #14. Getting there. :yes:
Beat me to the punch here ...Smith is ranked 9th in my league. Charles Grant isn't exactly slumming either. He's 14th!
 
The New Orleans Saints have declared LB Alfred Fincher, FS Bryan Scott, CB Curtis Deloatch, RB Fred McAfee, WR Marques Colston, OG Montrae Holland, OT Rob Petitti, DL Will Smith inactive for Week 13.
 
Any news on Mr. Smith this week? Kevin Williams is a coach killer!
Team was off Monday, and of course Tuesday is the players' normal day off. See if he practices today. Last night on local radio sports talk, they didn't sound too optimistic about him going this week though, fwiw.
 
Saints | W. Smith practices Wednesday

Wed, 6 Dec 2006 15:08:24 -0800

New Orleans Saints DE Will Smith (knee) practiced Wednesday, Dec. 6, and is questionable for Week 14.

 
Saints | W. Smith practices Thursday

Thu, 7 Dec 2006 15:20:17 -0800

New Orleans Saints DE Will Smith (knee) practiced Thursday, Dec. 7, and is questionable for Week 14.

 
Not worth much, but from Friday's Times-Pic:

SMITH STATUS: For the second consecutive day, defensive end Will Smith practiced completely, according to the Saints' official injury report, although he still is listed as questionable.

Smith was held out last week with a knee injury. He told reporters he'd probably play against the Niners but was inactive for the game.

"I feel fine," Smith said, smiling. "I felt fine last week."

Smith was playing coy on his status for the Cowboys.

"So you're asking me if I'm going to play this week?" Smith said. "We'll wait and see. I felt good. I'm fine. I'll be fine for the game. You just call it a game-time situation. I should be ready to go. I'd say about 75 or 80 (percent) chance I'll play."

And what was it last week when Smith didn't play?

"About 75 or 80 percent."

Link

 
"So you're asking me if I'm going to play this week?" Smith said. "We'll wait and see. I felt good. I'm fine. I'll be fine for the game. You just call it a game-time situation. I should be ready to go. I'd say about 75 or 80 (percent) chance I'll play."And what was it last week when Smith didn't play?"About 75 or 80 percent."
:wall:
 

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