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Will the Real Michael Clayton Please Step Up... (1 Viewer)

Bob_Magaw

Footballguy
in 2004, he was one of few WRs to get 1,000+yards in last few decades (with randy moss & anquan boldin)... and looked good doing it, with a few of the best TD catches in 2004... the one where his helmet came off & he had presence of mind to keep running... one where he made a one handed grab of a ball way overthrown... maybe his last of the season when he nearly hurdled a defender & his momentum put him in...

mitigating circumstances from last year were pre-season knee injury that prevented proper conditioning, & separate shoulder & turf toe injuries in-season...

some possibly relevant differences... galloway now looks like WR1... they have a more potent run game with cadillac...

is clayton still thought of as a difference maker with a bright future, or a one-year wonder?

clayton is a great athlete who saban said could have been an all american safety if he had been needed there more... frank coyle said that he may not test off the charts, he was one of toughest & best football players in entire class...

is there precedent for WRs that busted out with stellar rookie season that didn't quite live up to expectations thereafter... it would have to be small group, since the group that starts fast is itself very small to start with.

maybe terry glenn, considering how good a start he got off to (another rare 1,000 yard rookie season, i think?), would be such an example... i'd certainly be happy if his career mirrored moss & boldin... any catastrophic flameouts after spectacular beginnings?

 
the biggest question to me is how much of his dropoff was due to injury. His injuries ran the gamut, from offseason left knee surgery, to a problem shoulder from camp forward, a bruised right knee, and finally a toe injury. You have to think the kid was never able to really hit his stride. I don't if know if he's turned especially soft or brittle, I don't think he's ever had a reputation for being either of those things. If he can stay healthy, he should at least bounce back to Stallworth/Porter territory.

 
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He's good, but it was Gruden's offense that made him good. He had better numbers his rookie year than he "should" have because everyone else was hurt. Galloway had better numbers last year than he "should" have because Clayton got hurt. This year, with both healthy, they should both do OK, but I wouldn't expect big numbers from either unless one gets injured.

 
I was reading the blog of Dr Drinen and came across this:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=11

Michael Clayton’s decline

This generic feelgood article on the Buccaneers caught my eye for a couple of reasons. First, it talks about how beneficial it is to have stability in your personnel from year to year. I’d like to investigate that, but it might take awhile before I get around to it.

For now, I wanted to ponder the case of Michael Clayton, who had one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history and followed it up one of the biggest declines in NFL history. From the article, here is Jon Gruden’s take:

“We’ve talked privately a lot about that,” Gruden said. “He did not have the same kind of year for a lot of reasons. I think the injuries, the surgeries, all those things caught up with him. The lack of any offseason? You’ve got to practice, man. These guys go year-round. You see the bodies of some these guys, it’s insane what these guys go through to get themselves ready to play.

“And once you sacrifice half of that, or most of that preparation — the physical preparation, mental preparation — it catches up with you. ‘Cause the other guys are just as good physically as you are. It’s a fine line. And I think Michael has learned from that.”

Gruden said Clayton has had “a great offseason. He’s been in there every day. He’s upbeat. He’s alive. He got married, OK? So I’m really excited about joining forces again with him this year.”

The Institution of Marriage has no bigger fans than the guy typing this (and don’t think I’m sucking up; my wife wouldn’t read this blog on a dare), but if I’m a Buc fan this doesn’t fill me with confidence. What I want to hear is

People don’t understand the magnitude of the injuries he was playing through. We were having to drain his knee twelve times a day. The fact that he was even walking, much less giving 110% as a decoy for us, was remarkable. The doctors say they’ve never seen anyone play on a knee so messed up.

I probably wouldn’t believe that if Gruden had said it, but it’d be more comforting than “He got married, OK?” But who knows, maybe this is just the thing. Ladies of San Francisco, please monitor this situation. If Clayton turns it around, I’m going to be introducing you to a nice young man named Rashaun Woods.

For historical perspective, here are the biggest yards-per-game declines from one year to the next since 1978 (minimum 1000 yards in year one, minimum 12 games in year two).

Good year Bad year Next year

age G YD G YD G YD

Wes Chandler 27 | 8 1032 | 16 845 | 15 708

Derrick Alexander 30 | 16 1391 | 14 470 | 8 134

Michael Clayton 23 | 16 1193 | 14 372 | ? ?

Irving Fryar 36 | 16 1316 | 16 556 | 16 254

Stacey Bailey 25 | 16 1138 | 15 364 | 6 39

Roy Green 28 | 16 1555 | 13 693 | 11 517

Johnnie Morton 31 | 16 1154 | 14 397 | 16 740

Randy Moss 27 | 16 1632 | 13 767 | 16 1005

Mark Carrier 25 | 16 1422 | 16 813 | 16 698

Muhsin Muhammad 32 | 16 1405 | 15 750 | ? ?

Rob Moore 30 | 16 1584 | 16 982 | 14 621

Joe Horn 33 | 16 1399 | 13 654 | ? ?

Jerry Rice 34 | 16 1848 | 16 1254 | 2 78

Eric Metcalf 28 | 16 1189 | 16 599 | 16 576

Carlos Carson 30 | 12 1044 | 14 711 | 13 107

Nate Burleson 24 | 16 1006 | 12 328 | ? ?

John Jefferson 25 | 16 1340 | 13 632 | 8 452

Brett Perriman 32 | 16 1021 | 13 392 | 0 0

Brian Blades 25 | 16 1063 | 16 525 | 16 1003

Qadry Ismail 32 | 16 1059 | 14 462 | 0 0

Gary Clark 26 | 12 1066 | 16 892 | 15 1229

Henry Ellard 36 | 16 1014 | 16 485 | 7 115

Drew Pearson 29 | 15 1026 | 16 568 | 16 614

Robert Brooks 28 | 15 1010 | 12 420 | 0 0

Bruce Hill 25 | 14 1040 | 16 673 | 13 641

Anthony Miller 31 | 14 1079 | 16 735 | 16 645

Brandon Stokley 29 | 16 1077 | 15 543 | ? ?

Lionel Manuel 27 | 16 1029 | 16 539 | 14 169

 
He looked like the real deal to me in 2004. He looked smooth, like Chad Johnson, and led the league in YAC. If he gets back to 100% then I think he'll have a nice career. I don't see him ever being a superstar, but rather a consistent performer in the mold of Rod Smith or Hines Ward.

 
clayton isn't a blazer, but he is football fast... he gets into & out of his cuts pretty fast... at least when he was healthy...

maybe since speed isn't his strong suit & injuries presumably robbed him of some of that, it pushed him across a threshold where his speed was no longer as functional or playing fast as when healthy... a case where a difference can become magnified and make a big difference.

if he can return to his state of health from two years ago, I think the only thing that can hold him back, & is somewhat of a concern, is if simms locks on to galloway which artificially stunts his targets... with simms being a relatively young QB, it may be easier to just always look where galloway is, & he may not be as adept at surveying field & looking for secondary option (ie - clayton)...

 
If you go by this assumption - Clayton will completely regain and maintain his health - he will be a perrenial 1,000 yard WR who is also good at catching TD passes (good size, 6-4, good toughness, talented, plays for Gruden).

 
People don’t understand the magnitude of the injuries he was playing through. We were having to drain his knee twelve times a day. The fact that he was even walking, much less giving 110% as a decoy for us, was remarkable. The doctors say they’ve never seen anyone play on a knee so messed up.
This quote pretty much sums it for me. I'm thinking Clayton will be very undervalued this year

 
Why would the Bucs be so reckless with a player??

I don't buy the "we had to drain his knee twelve times a day"

You don't put anyone threw that just as a decoy. And bid mid season im not sure he was worth being a decoy. Who was worried about him at that point.

Bottom line the health of Galloway and the health of Clayton is why he did so poorly. I think he will rebound from last season but probably not have the #s from his rookie year.

 
you guys are totally taking drinen's quote out of context. he was saying that if he had heard that was what was going on with clayton, he would feel a lot better. there's no reports out there that his knee was being drained 12 times a day.

 
you guys are totally taking drinen's quote out of context. he was saying that if he had heard that was what was going on with clayton, he would feel a lot better. there's no reports out there that his knee was being drained 12 times a day.
Agreed, you guys need to read that a little more closely. The fact that there was no BIG reason like that you can point to is exactly what is worrisome. What about Eddie Kennison with the Rams or Chris Sanders with Tenn(?), they had big rookie years and then flamed out. Kennison has been productive lately though.

 
you guys are totally taking drinen's quote out of context. he was saying that if he had heard that was what was going on with clayton, he would feel a lot better. there's no reports out there that his knee was being drained 12 times a day.
I apologize for putting that quote in there if it stirred up trouble. I take Doug's statements at face value. I think he is just saying that we all would feel better, and value accordingly, if knew to what extent last year's injuries contributed to down year and how it affects the coming year.
 
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you guys are totally taking drinen's quote out of context. he was saying that if he had heard that was what was going on with clayton, he would feel a lot better. there's no reports out there that his knee was being drained 12 times a day.
"People don’t understand the magnitude of the injuries he was playing through. We were having to drain his knee twelve times a day. The fact that he was even walking, much less giving 110% as a decoy for us, was remarkable. The doctors say they’ve never seen anyone play on a knee so messed up."Where is this being taken out of context. Not trying to argue I just seriously don't understand what your implying.

 
you guys are totally taking drinen's quote out of context. he was saying that if he had heard that was what was going on with clayton, he would feel a lot better. there's no reports out there that his knee was being drained 12 times a day.
"People don’t understand the magnitude of the injuries he was playing through. We were having to drain his knee twelve times a day. The fact that he was even walking, much less giving 110% as a decoy for us, was remarkable. The doctors say they’ve never seen anyone play on a knee so messed up."Where is this being taken out of context. Not trying to argue I just seriously don't understand what your implying.
His knee was never drained twelve times a day. The doctors never said they've never seen someone play with a knee like that. None of that stuff happened. The quote you're talking about was an example that, had it been that way, the author would have felt better about Clayton's chances next year, as he is apparently healthy now. Instead, all Gruden says is that he's healthy and he's married.

 
you guys are totally taking drinen's quote out of context. he was saying that if he had heard that was what was going on with clayton, he would feel a lot better. there's no reports out there that his knee was being drained 12 times a day.
"People don’t understand the magnitude of the injuries he was playing through. We were having to drain his knee twelve times a day. The fact that he was even walking, much less giving 110% as a decoy for us, was remarkable. The doctors say they’ve never seen anyone play on a knee so messed up."Where is this being taken out of context. Not trying to argue I just seriously don't understand what your implying.
Read this whole section again:
Gruden said Clayton has had “a great offseason. He’s been in there every day. He’s upbeat. He’s alive. He got married, OK? So I’m really excited about joining forces again with him this year.”

The Institution of Marriage has no bigger fans than the guy typing this (and don’t think I’m sucking up; my wife wouldn’t read this blog on a dare), but if I’m a Buc fan this doesn’t fill me with confidence. What I want to hear is

People don’t understand the magnitude of the injuries he was playing through. We were having to drain his knee twelve times a day. The fact that he was even walking, much less giving 110% as a decoy for us, was remarkable. The doctors say they’ve never seen anyone play on a knee so messed up.

I probably wouldn’t believe that if Gruden had said it, but it’d be more comforting than “He got married, OK?” But who knows, maybe this is just the thing. Ladies of San Francisco, please monitor this situation. If Clayton turns it around, I’m going to be introducing you to a nice young man named Rashaun Woods.
He basically says that Gruden said he had a great offseason and got married. What he was hoping Gruden would say was that Clayton was really injured and could barely walk and in 2006 he is 100% healthy.
 
you guys are totally taking drinen's quote out of context. he was saying that if he had heard that was what was going on with clayton, he would feel a lot better. there's no reports out there that his knee was being drained 12 times a day.
"People don’t understand the magnitude of the injuries he was playing through. We were having to drain his knee twelve times a day. The fact that he was even walking, much less giving 110% as a decoy for us, was remarkable. The doctors say they’ve never seen anyone play on a knee so messed up."Where is this being taken out of context. Not trying to argue I just seriously don't understand what your implying.
Uh, read the part above that quite where the writer says:What I want to hear is

In other words, the writer of that blog wanted to hear that the reason Clayton struggled so much last year was because he could barely walk.

 
What about Eddie Kennison with the Rams or Chris Sanders with Tenn(?), they had big rookie years and then flamed out. Kennison has been productive lately though.
None of those guys had rookie years like Clayton. Some rookies might catch sveeral TDs and have a high YPC. But few catch 80/1193 their rookie season. Those are just not easy numbers to have as a rookie unless you are a legitimate NFL stud.Sanders actually caught more passes for more yards his second year, although it was still only 48/882. Kennison 54/924 his rookie year.

 
you guys are totally taking drinen's quote out of context. he was saying that if he had heard that was what was going on with clayton, he would feel a lot better. there's no reports out there that his knee was being drained 12 times a day.
"People don’t understand the magnitude of the injuries he was playing through. We were having to drain his knee twelve times a day. The fact that he was even walking, much less giving 110% as a decoy for us, was remarkable. The doctors say they’ve never seen anyone play on a knee so messed up."Where is this being taken out of context. Not trying to argue I just seriously don't understand what your implying.
His knee was never drained twelve times a day. The doctors never said they've never seen someone play with a knee like that. None of that stuff happened. The quote you're talking about was an example that, had it been that way, the author would have felt better about Clayton's chances next year, as he is apparently healthy now. Instead, all Gruden says is that he's healthy and he's married.
Thank You! :thumbup: It takes me a while sometime.
 
He's good, but it was Gruden's offense that made him good. He had better numbers his rookie year than he "should" have because everyone else was hurt. Galloway had better numbers last year than he "should" have because Clayton got hurt. This year, with both healthy, they should both do OK, but I wouldn't expect big numbers from either unless one gets injured.
:goodposting: Gruden's offense typically produces at least one stud fantasy WR. Fryar in Philly, Tim Brown in Oakland, Key, then Clayton, then Galloway in Tampa. Given Galloway's age, inconsistency, and injury history, I know who I'll be betting on to be the likely WR1 in Tampa this year and in the future. Clayton will fal farther than he should in redraft leagues this year, and he is a GREAT buy low canidate in dynasty/keeper leagues.

 
good calls on kennison & sanders...

they are not quite right for reasons baker outlined, but they are as good as anybody else i have heard offered for comp situations...

sanders didn't have pedigree of mid-first round, & neither guy had receptions or yards...

another differentiating factor is that kennison is primarily a deep threat & doesn't seem to have constellation of traits that would make him more well rounded, threat over the middle by which he could approach bigger reception numbers...

clayton is bigger & tougher, & as long as simms looks his way, is better constituted physically & in terms of superior overall athleticism & more versatile skill set to be more multi-purpose receiving weapon (ie - receptions, yards AND TDs), imo...

& clayton is kind of skinny, & if he could put on 10 lbs or so would be more boldin & TO like in terms of RAC potential... he has deceptive quickness & game speed when health permits him to be in condition...

 
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What about Eddie Kennison with the Rams or Chris Sanders with Tenn(?), they had big rookie years and then flamed out.
None of those guys had rookie years like Clayton.
Nonetheless, this streak I identified in my 2003 Stallworth face-off is still unbroken.I can't find the actual face-off article, or the Shark Pool thread about it, but this is from my notes:

Stallworth led all rookie WRs with 8.3 FFPG last year. This is just slightly below the average rookie leader for the previous ten years of 8.6 ppg. (Chris Chambers, JuJuan Dawson, Kevin Johnson, Randy Moss, Keith Poole, Terry Glenn, Joey Galloway, Darnay Scott, Horace Copeland, Arthur Marshall.) How much did that group improve in their second year? They didn’t. They declined to 5.8 ppg – a 32% decrease. Not a single WR improved in his second year – all ten declined; from 8% (Galloway) to 71% (Dawson). Average decline is 35%.
Stallworth did in fact end up slumping in his second year. So did Chambers, Boldin, and now Clayton. I think it's partially coincidence and partially not, but it's an impressive streak. For the past fifteen years or so -- as far back as I looked (I no longer remember exactly, but it was at least 10 years as of three years ago) -- every single WR who had the best rookie year of his class went on to be a disappointment the following year.
 
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What about Eddie Kennison with the Rams or Chris Sanders with Tenn(?), they had big rookie years and then flamed out.
None of those guys had rookie years like Clayton.
Nonetheless, this streak I identified in my 2003 Stallworth face-off is still unbroken.I can't find the actual face-off article, or the Shark Pool thread about it, but this is from my notes:

Stallworth led all rookie WRs with 8.3 FFPG last year.  This is just slightly below the average rookie leader for the previous ten years of 8.6 ppg.  (Chris Chambers, JuJuan Dawson, Kevin Johnson, Randy Moss, Keith Poole, Terry Glenn, Joey Galloway, Darnay Scott, Horace Copeland, Arthur Marshall.)  How much did that group improve in their second year?  They didn’t.  They declined to 5.8 ppg – a 32% decrease.  Not a single WR improved in his second year – all ten declined; from 8% (Galloway) to 71% (Dawson).  Average decline is 35%.
Stallworth did in fact end up slumping in his second year. So did Chambers, Boldin, and now Clayton. I think it's partially coincidence and partially not, but it's an impressive streak. For the past fifteen years or so -- as far back as I looked (I no longer remember exactly, but it was at least 10 years as of three years ago) -- every single WR who had the best rookie year of his class went on to be a disappointment the following year.
the streak will be broken this year, but that's only because no rookie WR had even a solid year by fantasy standards. I believe Reggie Brown was the best rookie WR for fantasy last year, and he only ended up with 43/571/4.
 
I think it's pretty simple actually. Galloway's presence hurt Clayton's numbers the most. Galloway is a reliable vet, and Simms does lock onto him.

 
you guys are totally taking drinen's quote out of context. he was saying that if he had heard that was what was going on with clayton, he would feel a lot better. there's no reports out there that his knee was being drained 12 times a day.
"People don’t understand the magnitude of the injuries he was playing through. We were having to drain his knee twelve times a day. The fact that he was even walking, much less giving 110% as a decoy for us, was remarkable. The doctors say they’ve never seen anyone play on a knee so messed up."Where is this being taken out of context. Not trying to argue I just seriously don't understand what your implying.
His knee was never drained twelve times a day. The doctors never said they've never seen someone play with a knee like that. None of that stuff happened. The quote you're talking about was an example that, had it been that way, the author would have felt better about Clayton's chances next year, as he is apparently healthy now. Instead, all Gruden says is that he's healthy and he's married.
:lmao: I misread it also
 
What about Eddie Kennison with the Rams or Chris Sanders with Tenn(?), they had big rookie years and then flamed out.
None of those guys had rookie years like Clayton.
Nonetheless, this streak I identified in my 2003 Stallworth face-off is still unbroken.I can't find the actual face-off article, or the Shark Pool thread about it, but this is from my notes:

Stallworth led all rookie WRs with 8.3 FFPG last year. This is just slightly below the average rookie leader for the previous ten years of 8.6 ppg. (Chris Chambers, JuJuan Dawson, Kevin Johnson, Randy Moss, Keith Poole, Terry Glenn, Joey Galloway, Darnay Scott, Horace Copeland, Arthur Marshall.) How much did that group improve in their second year? They didn’t. They declined to 5.8 ppg – a 32% decrease. Not a single WR improved in his second year – all ten declined; from 8% (Galloway) to 71% (Dawson). Average decline is 35%.
Stallworth did in fact end up slumping in his second year. So did Chambers, Boldin, and now Clayton. I think it's partially coincidence and partially not, but it's an impressive streak. For the past fifteen years or so -- as far back as I looked (I no longer remember exactly, but it was at least 10 years as of three years ago) -- every single WR who had the best rookie year of his class went on to be a disappointment the following year.
the streak will be broken this year, but that's only because no rookie WR had even a solid year by fantasy standards. I believe Reggie Brown was the best rookie WR for fantasy last year, and he only ended up with 43/571/4.
Braylon Edwards had the best PPG of the rookie WRs last year, so he's the one whom the curse shall befall in 2006.
 
I would rank Clayton higher this year if Gruden would come out and say that "Michael Clayton was playing through ball cancer in 2005, but it is all cured now."

 
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What about Eddie Kennison with the Rams or Chris Sanders with Tenn(?), they had big rookie years and then flamed out.
None of those guys had rookie years like Clayton.
Nonetheless, this streak I identified in my 2003 Stallworth face-off is still unbroken.I can't find the actual face-off article, or the Shark Pool thread about it, but this is from my notes:

Stallworth led all rookie WRs with 8.3 FFPG last year.  This is just slightly below the average rookie leader for the previous ten years of 8.6 ppg.  (Chris Chambers, JuJuan Dawson, Kevin Johnson, Randy Moss, Keith Poole, Terry Glenn, Joey Galloway, Darnay Scott, Horace Copeland, Arthur Marshall.)  How much did that group improve in their second year?  They didn’t.  They declined to 5.8 ppg – a 32% decrease.  Not a single WR improved in his second year – all ten declined; from 8% (Galloway) to 71% (Dawson).  Average decline is 35%.
Stallworth did in fact end up slumping in his second year. So did Chambers, Boldin, and now Clayton. I think it's partially coincidence and partially not, but it's an impressive streak. For the past fifteen years or so -- as far back as I looked (I no longer remember exactly, but it was at least 10 years as of three years ago) -- every single WR who had the best rookie year of his class went on to be a disappointment the following year.
the streak will be broken this year, but that's only because no rookie WR had even a solid year by fantasy standards. I believe Reggie Brown was the best rookie WR for fantasy last year, and he only ended up with 43/571/4.
Braylon Edwards had the best PPG of the rookie WRs last year, so he's the one whom the curse shall befall in 2006.
ah then maybe it will stay intact because of limited effectiveness from the knee injury... i was just looking at season end totals.
 
What about Eddie Kennison with the Rams or Chris Sanders with Tenn(?), they had big rookie years and then flamed out.
None of those guys had rookie years like Clayton.
Nonetheless, this streak I identified in my 2003 Stallworth face-off is still unbroken.I can't find the actual face-off article, or the Shark Pool thread about it, but this is from my notes:

Stallworth led all rookie WRs with 8.3 FFPG last year. This is just slightly below the average rookie leader for the previous ten years of 8.6 ppg. (Chris Chambers, JuJuan Dawson, Kevin Johnson, Randy Moss, Keith Poole, Terry Glenn, Joey Galloway, Darnay Scott, Horace Copeland, Arthur Marshall.) How much did that group improve in their second year? They didn’t. They declined to 5.8 ppg – a 32% decrease. Not a single WR improved in his second year – all ten declined; from 8% (Galloway) to 71% (Dawson). Average decline is 35%.
Stallworth did in fact end up slumping in his second year. So did Chambers, Boldin, and now Clayton. I think it's partially coincidence and partially not, but it's an impressive streak. For the past fifteen years or so -- as far back as I looked (I no longer remember exactly, but it was at least 10 years as of three years ago) -- every single WR who had the best rookie year of his class went on to be a disappointment the following year.
I stole this idea from Maurile to write the downside face-off either last year or the year before (so either on Boldin or Clayton). One thing I mentioned that you probably want to fix MT is that in 2000, JuJuan Dawson played in two games, and had 97 yards and 1 TD for a PPG average of 7.85, to lead all rookies.I'm pretty sure you'd agree that he's a bad example of a guy to use for the purposes of this "streak".

Fortunately for those in favor of these quirky pieces of trivia, the guy who was truly the best rookie WR was Peter Warrick. He ranked 1st in FPs, and 2nd in FP/G (behind Dawson of course). Warrick had 110 FPs and averaged 6.9 FP/G. The following year he averaged 4.6 FP/G.

Both years he played in all sixteen games (something he hasn't done since).

 
maurile's find begs the question for dynasty purposes...

is clayton more moss, boldin, chambers...

galloway & glenn...

or dawson, KJ, poole, scott, copeland & marshall...

???

 
I compare him to Colbert nice rookie season and then pouf.

So why is everyone so down on Colbert and thinks that Clayton can bounce back.

I say he is a below average receiver .

 
I compare him to Colbert nice rookie season and then pouf.

So why is everyone so down on Colbert and thinks that Clayton can bounce back.

I say he is a below average receiver .
:loco: Clayton as a rookie: 80 catches for 1193 yards and 7 TDs

Colbert as a rookie: 47 catches for 754 yards and 5 TDs

If Clayton is "below average," than Colbert flat out sucks...

 

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