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Will Trump face a serious primary challenge? (1 Viewer)

jamny

Footballguy
A few facts:

The last three incumbent presidents who were defeated (Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush) all have one thing in common: They faced a fairly serious primary challenger.

Ronald Reagan for Ford, Ted Kennedy for Carter, Pat Buchanan for Bush.

In contrast, the other modern presidents who won second terms — Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama — did not draw major primary challengers.3

Defining a “major” primary challenger is tricky and somewhat subjective, as tons of people run for president in both parties every year. We’ve used various complicated criteria to define “serious” candidates in the past. For our purposes here, though, suffice it to say that the re-nominations of Reagan, Clinton, Bush and Obama were never really in doubt.

It’s not totally clear which way the causation runs here — did the primary challenge weaken Ford, Carter and H.W. Bush ahead of the general election, or was it simply a symptom of a weakness that already existed? I tend to believe the second theory.
That said, no primary challenger has succeeded in displacing an incumbent president since 1884, which I believe tends to discourage would-be challengers. Challenging a sitting president and losing is not a great mark to have on one’s political career.






While I can see people like Flake or Kasich going for it in 2020, I don't see anyone capable at making a serious bid for the nomination. Obviously a lot can change in 2 years, or even just the next year.

 
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Sinn Fein

Footballguy
Serious challenge?  No

I imagine there might be a fringe candidate or two who makes a half-hearted effort.  Romney could float a trial balloon.   But, in the end, there is no better embodiment of the current state of the GOP than Trump.

 

timschochet

Footballguy
If there is a recession, and it is perceived as a direct result of Trump’s trade policies, the answer is yes. 

 

Workhorse

Footballguy
It depends. If the economy tumbles into recession in the next year or so, then yes, Trump will face a primary challenge. 

 

Mario Kart

Footballguy
If the Republican Party wants to save what may be left of it in 2020, there will be a couple of challengers. The debates will be good to see. Trump cannot run unopposed. Surely there are good people in the Republican Party that can see the flaws. 

Also, let’s assume Trump wins in 2020, who is he grooming to be the next Trump for 2024? It ain’t Jr. is it? It ain’t Pence? I don’t see anyone following up this kerfuffle after Trump. 

 
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I believe Romney could potentially challenge Trump. If Trump is the nominee again in 2020, the Republican Party is in for even worse results than 2018. 

 

[scooter]

Footballguy
Romney, Kasich, Evan McMullin.

Three scandal-free guys, pragmatists, who are non-evangelical Christians with squeaky clean personal lives.

(You know, like what the Republican party used to represent.)

 
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zftcg

Footballguy
Also, let’s assume Trump wins in 2020, who is he grooming to be the next Trump for 2024? It ain’t Jr. is it? It ain’t Pence? I don’t see anyone following up this kerfuffle after Trump. 
If Trump gets re-elected Pence will absolutely run in '24. That used to be the norm until candidates started picking old guys like Cheney and Biden as their running mates. It's true that he wouldn't have the same relationship with Trump's base. But he would be the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination.

Let's pray we never reach that point.

 

Biff84

Footballguy
Kasich will run but I’m not sure he’ll run a primary challenge. He’s long been rumored to be considering running on a unity ticket with a Democrat VP. In that case I’m not sure if they’d run as Republican or Independent.

 

zftcg

Footballguy
Kasich will run but I’m not sure he’ll run a primary challenge. He’s long been rumored to be considering running on a unity ticket with a Democrat VP. In that case I’m not sure if they’d run as Republican or Independent.
I doubt anyone who wants to defeat Trump will do that. The one possible exception would be if the Dems ran someone seen as way too far left. For example, if Bernie had won the nomination in '16, I'm pretty sure Bloomberg would have run third party. But I don't think Bernie has a chance in '20, and I don't think the left-most plausible candidate (Warren) would be considered enough of a threat that centrists would align against her.

 

the moops

Footballguy
I can see the Ford/Reagan primary being considered a serious race. Ford outdelegated him 1187 - 1070. Super close

But the Carter/Kennedy one was 51% for Carter and only 37% for Kennedy. But maybe it was closer than it seemed?

Bush/Buchanan should definitely not be on the list though. Bush won every delegate, and beat him 73% - 23%

 

D Baseball

Footballguy
Romney, Kasich, Evan McMullin.

Three scandal-free guys pragmatists who are non-evangelical Christians with squeaky clean personal lives.

(You know, like what the Republican party used to represent.)
Wait, I recall the left calling Romney a racist, mysogynyist and a homophobe. I don't recall him being called a white supremacist or a nazi, but it probably happened. Now he's a good guy? 

 

[scooter]

Footballguy
Romney, Kasich, Evan McMullin.

Three scandal-free guys pragmatists who are non-evangelical Christians with squeaky clean personal lives.

(You know, like what the Republican party used to represent.)
Wait, I recall the left calling Romney a racist, mysogynyist and a homophobe. I don't recall him being called a white supremacist or a nazi, but it probably happened. Now he's a good guy? 
Mitt Romney is a homophobe who holds outdated views on both women and race. But he's a million times better than the current Trumpster Fire occupying the White House.

I look forward to voting for Romney, Kasich, McMullin, or just about any other non-degenerate Republican in the 2020 primary.

 

Don Quixote

Footballguy
Going against a sitting President in a primary is almost always never going anywhere, but if I was a serious candidate, I still think there's an outside shot Trump just takes his ball and goes home, and run on the chance that he'll give up rather than fight for the nomination again.

He clearly hates the job (which was clear even before the LA Times story today).  His principal motivation for running seemed to be to get the like of Seth Meyers to stop making fun of him, but he's just a bigger laughingstock to everybody.  His ego can't really handle defeat -- why risk going out with a crushing loss, when he can go out "on top" and say that he would have won re-election, but wants to spend more time with his family (or whatever his make-believe excuse is).

It would not be the most predictable thing that Trump has done, but not the most unpredictable thing either.

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
Wait, I recall the left calling Romney a racist, mysogynyist and a homophobe. I don't recall him being called a white supremacist or a nazi, but it probably happened. Now he's a good guy? 
I have issues with Romney but he’s competent.

Also not everyone hear complaining about Trump is “the left”. Many of our moderates or conservatives who’ve fled the party. 

 

D Baseball

Footballguy
Mitt Romney is a homophobe who holds outdated views on both women and race. But he's a million times better than the current Trumpster Fire occupying the White House.

I look forward to voting for Romney, Kasich, McMullin, or just about any other non-degenerate Republican in the 2020 primary.
Interesting. What are his views on race? I don't recall him saying anything controversial. 

 

Henry Ford

Footballguy
It would either have to be someone who has a long time to go before an election (Senator elected in 2018) or someone who otherwise doesn’t need the Trump base after losing (Flake, Evan McMullen).

 

ffldrew

Footballguy
Cory Gardner should run - he's dead man walking in Colorado - but he's clean and nice enough and has projected himself as a "moderate" (it's a lie) Republican, really good at talking out of both sides of his mouth. Still he could find some backing and in a place like Iowa he'd get the evangelical votes enough to hurt Trump a bit. He'll have to couch it in a morality story - he's troubled by all the un-Christian methods that Trump uses and it's on his conscience. And if he gets the ball rolling he could get some help in NH from the Bush/Sunnunu teams to perhaps change the narrative and you know the MSM would love a big fight. If he loses he has the 2024 story of taking on Trump for the Christian right and to save the party while Pence stayed quiet which might give him the inside track.

 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
I think Trump will definitely be challenged and lose.  Unless you think the various scandals being investigated are bunk and Trump is innocent, I don't see how you can think otherwise.

 

IC FBGCav

Footballguy
Unfortunately, I think this is right.  The GOP has become Trump's party over the past couple of years, and I doubt there's room for a serious primary challenge.
They haven’t become Trump's party, he just let's them be vocal about their beliefs.  Trump isn't changing minds, he stoking the fire.  

 

lazyike

Footballguy
I actually think Romney would have made a pretty good President....wasn't it the reams of folders about women employees that got him in trouble? As to someone challenging Trump I think the next 6-9 months will be important. Do we get to see the Mueller report and is there significant detrimental information in it? does Trump finally say or do something that offend a larger portion of Republicans? Is Trump a lame duck President or does he work with the House and if so does it offend some of his base? 

 
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jamny

Footballguy
I actually think Romney would have made a pretty good President....wasn't it the reams of folders about women employees that got him in trouble? As to someone challenging Trump I think the next 6-9 months will be important. Do we get to see the Mueller report and is there significant detrimental information in it? does Trump finally say or do something that offend a larger portion of Republicans? Is Trump a lame duck President or does he work with the House and if so does it offend some of his base? 
How different things would be if Romney had won in 2012.

 

Henry Ford

Footballguy
I think Trump will definitely be challenged and lose.  Unless you think the various scandals being investigated are bunk and Trump is innocent, I don't see how you can think otherwise.
Because the people who vote for him don’t care about them. At all. 

 

Henry Ford

Footballguy
How different things would be if Romney had won in 2012.
Very.  #MeToo would have meant “I am also in the President’s binders full of women.”

And don’t get me started on how much more black people would trust the government.  

 

Maurile Tremblay

Administrator
Staff member
I actually think Romney would have made a pretty good President....wasn't it the reams of folders about women employees that got him in trouble?
Yes, it’s worth quoting the whole thing. It was pretty terrible.

Candy Crowley: Governor Romney, pay equity for women.

Mitt Romney: Thank you and important topic. And one which I learned a great deal about, particularly as I was serving as Governor of my state. Because I had the chance to pull together a Cabinet, and all of the applicants seemed to be men. And I went to my staff and I said: "How come all of the people for these jobs are all men?" They said: "Well, these are the people that have the qualifications." And I said: "Well gosh, can't we find some women that are also qualified?" And we took a concerted effort to go out and find women who had backgrounds that could be qualified to become members of our Cabinet. I went to a number of women's groups and said: "Can you help us find folks?" And they brought us whole binders full of women. I was proud of the fact that after I staffed my Cabinet, and my senior staff, the University of New York in Albany did a survey of all 50 states, and concluded that mine had more women in senior leadership positions than any other state in America.

 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
Because the people who vote for him don’t care about them. At all. 
The history of Clinton does seem to support you, however I think this will be a little bit more serious then sexual harassment and perjury when Mueller gets done.    I don't think Trump wins in the first place if the party had gone the Democrat route and thrown all their support and funding behind one candidate.

 
The history of Clinton does seem to support you, however I think this will be a little bit more serious then sexual harassment and perjury when Mueller gets done.   
It already is more serious and we haven't even heard from Mueller yet.  Trump supporters don't believe it or care.  They also think Mueller's investigation is a "witchhunt" so I'm not sure why you would expect them to believe what he has to say.

 

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