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Will Trump get reelected in 2020? (2019 version) (1 Viewer)

Will Trump get reelected

  • Yes

    Votes: 76 51.0%
  • No

    Votes: 73 49.0%

  • Total voters
    149

gianmarco

Footballguy
Pretty simple question. This isn't whether you want him to win but whether or not you think he will. 

Lots of hindsight about what happened in 2016. So, let's see who thinks he gets back in now.

I personally don't think he has a chance despite some of the recent things I've seen saying he's got a great shot.

I think there will be a huge wave of people that may not have voted in the past that come out to make sure he's gone. I don't see any way the people on the fence for him in 2016 go his way.

Just my $.02.

 

timschochet

Footballguy
Comes down to Pennsylvania and Florida. Trump needs to win both, same as before. 

I don’t love his chances but there’s a lot of time between now and then. 

 

Dickies

Footballguy
No, but I didn't expect W to get re-elected after lying to the country to get us into never-ending wars.  I also didn't expect us to elect a conman and wannabe mobster as POTUS either.

While I don't think he has a chance, the stupidity of this country never ceases to amaze me.

 

gianmarco

Footballguy
I know there's no way to know and there's lots of time. That's why I put 2019 version. We can do this again in the future and compare.

As things stand today with the first 2 years in the book and the Mueller report out, just vote if you think he wins or not.

 

badmojo1006

Footballguy
I said no way would he be elected in 2016. I hope the American people have learned since then, but it could happen again.

We shall see in the upcoming months

 

Juxtatarot

Infidel
Unlikely.  People will come out to vote against him. I just bet a whopping $10 on this with a friend the other day.

 

pinkham13

Footballguy
If the economy doesn’t fall apart and the stock market continues higher I don’t see him being defeated.

 

stlrams

Footballguy
Only way he wins if the dems put forth a candidate as flawed as Hillary.  I voted no assuming the dems can’t possibly make the same mistake twice..

 

Thunderlips

Footballguy
It is pretty much going to come down to PA.   2018's results there don't do anything to help him and he did only win it by 45,000.....so right now, I'd imagine the D's have to feel pretty good about flipping it back.  It does look like more states that went R last POTUS election are more in the toss up/slightly leaning R side.

OTOH.....he can afford to give back a couple of states (WI and MI) and still win.... he could still lose PA and keep WI and MI and win.  I think the EC path for him is easier than R's in the past.

At any rate...win or lose....I think he loses the popular vote by a wider margin that last election.  

 

Thunderlips

Footballguy
In 2004 the media was in the middle of their Bush is the Devil campaign, he was the most hated man in US history, literally Hitler (all sound familiar?)

His opponent was weak.

He easily won reelection.

In 2012 Obama was still the golden child in the eyes of the media, but many were soured on his false promises of hope and change. Fox and the republicans were doing their best effort to paint him as the devil.

His opponent was weak, in fact he gave up a month before the election.

He easily won reelection.

So how does Trump fair?

He has faced an opposition and hatred like no president in our history. The Mueller rejection of Russia collusion is a major blow to his haters. The economy is doing great and by all measures America and Americans are better off than they were 4 years ago. The media and Democrats will continue their hatred and conspiracies, but most moderate Americans are tired of it. And the Democratic party is moving to radical socialist ideas to appeal to the fringe of the fringe because they are losing their moderates. That doesn't bode well for a general election.

If Trump's opponent is one of the 25 already announced candidates it will be the greatest landslide since Reagan in 84.

This doesn't even take into account what we might learn in the coming months about the FISA/spying scandal. If the full details are released the Democratic party may be eliminated permanently. They will have to come up with a new name and new brand if they ever want power again.
Can't believe you're selling him short like that. Careful...they might kick you out of his club. 

 

Herb

Footballguy
Voted no. Trump is the most reviled President in my lifetime for sure, possibly ever. Almost half of Americans,  even after the Mueller report, believe he was complicit with Russia in election fraud/conspiracy. He produces scandals on nearly a weekly basis that would demolish any other presidency.  As long as the dems don't screw it up (big if, granted), and nothing crazy happens (massive terrorist attack, war, aliens invading Earth) Trump will shoot himself in the foot enough times to lose. 

 

timschochet

Footballguy
If Trump's opponent is one of the 25 already announced candidates it will be the greatest landslide since Reagan in 84.
It’s funny to me that in the Russia thread you recently complimented me for trying to have some realism, and then you write stuff like this. Apparently you’re not looking at the electoral map or you’re choosing to ignore it. So let’s be clear: there is not going to be a landslide. Not for Trump, not for his opponent. A landslide is not possible in our current system: too many things have changed since the 1980s. There are only a few swing states and they decide the election. In this case, as in 2016, it probably comes down to Pennsylvania. (maybe Florida as well.) If Trump wins the election it will be very close. If Trump loses the election it will be very close. The one thing we can predict with pretty good confidence is that Democrats will win the popular vote. Why can we predict this? Because since 1992 Democrats have won the popular vote 6 out of 7 times. 

And, you’re really not going to like this but that last fact doesn’t bode well for your party. It’s really strange that after the last election in 2018, you would be consigning the Democrats to doom. In fact, it’s the opposite. Republicans have become a regional party- you have managed to cling to power through the electoral college and gerrymandering. But demographics are aging are changing that. Within 10 years from now both Florida and Texas will move from red to purple- Florida might be there already, Within 20 years they will move from purple to blue- and at that point you will start to see landslides again- all in one direction. 

Due to regional politics and the electoral map, the GOP isn’t going anywhere, even though they’re going to elect less and less Presidents. I think their best bet to hanging on is to forge a coalition with centrist and pro-business Democrats against the more progressive Democrats who are soon to take control of the Democratic Party. Look for that divide (between the two halves of the Democratic Party) to define our national politics in the years to come. 

 

dkp993

Footballguy
In 2004 the media was in the middle of their Bush is the Devil campaign, he was the most hated man in US history, literally Hitler (all sound familiar?)

His opponent was weak.

He easily won reelection.

In 2012 Obama was still the golden child in the eyes of the media, but many were soured on his false promises of hope and change. Fox and the republicans were doing their best effort to paint him as the devil.

His opponent was weak, in fact he gave up a month before the election.

He easily won reelection.

So how does Trump fair?

He has faced an opposition and hatred like no president in our history. The Mueller rejection of Russia collusion is a major blow to his haters. The economy is doing great and by all measures America and Americans are better off than they were 4 years ago. The media and Democrats will continue their hatred and conspiracies, but most moderate Americans are tired of it. And the Democratic party is moving to radical socialist ideas to appeal to the fringe of the fringe because they are losing their moderates. That doesn't bode well for a general election.

If Trump's opponent is one of the 25 already announced candidates it will be the greatest landslide since Reagan in 84.

This doesn't even take into account what we might learn in the coming months about the FISA/spying scandal. If the full details are released the Democratic party may be eliminated permanently. They will have to come up with a new name and new brand if they ever want power again.
Do you understand, at all, how you sound exactly like those you rail against? Honestly, you sound exactly like those that have been claiming Trump is going to take down the GOP.  The irony is so thick here it’s hard to believe you do see it.  

 

AAABatteries

Footballguy
Could he?  Sure.  But I have to vote no.

- he won by very small margins in a few key states

- he won’t get to run against Hillary 

- he’s absolutely hated by about half the country 

- he’s alienated and pissed off so many folks since he won that will come out to vote against him

- some elderly voters who voted for him will have died off

- Florida has an influx of PR voters and felon voters 

- he’s still trying to screw around with healthcare 

- his tax break didn’t work for a lot of people

- the porn star stuff will keep some folks from voting for him 

- his administration has been in a constant state of flux 

- any type of outside interference I’m assuming will be monitored to make sure neither side 

- his tweeting is embarrassing to some people who voted for him and they will choose to stay home

- and most importantly people now realize that not only does he not know what he’s doing but he’s slowly dragging the Republican Party down with him 

 

The Commish

Footballguy
Trump has to be up there among the most hated.  I don’t think that’s a laughable claim at all.
These comments are almost always made as if the subjects of the hate are created equal and I will say that racial hate, especially in this country is significantly different.

ETA:  There were over 3000 "threats" against Obama that the Secret Service felt warranted investigation not including his time as a candidate.  We haven't broken 500 with Trump including his time as a candidate.

 
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Mr Anonymous

Footballguy
Gun to head I'd say No. But I'd be very, very worried since Dems can't get out of their own way. This should be layup but humans gonna human.

 

gianmarco

Footballguy
The results so far are pretty surprising, especially given how many are really against Trump currently. 

And incredibly disappointing, too. 

 

Stealthycat

Footballguy
I think he will. 

This country has went great under this administration. I think if he'll stand on the successes, stop idiot tweeting, get more great things accomplished ..... the Democrats can only really run on a hate platform and that will fail.

The Mueller failure is bigly important too ... people see that witch hunt and they'll vote accordingly.

It'll be another very close split in popular voting though - and the right Democrat could win ... a few swing states will make all the difference. 

 

fantasycurse42

Footballguy Jr.
I think the odds are very high he is reelected - We have to go back 27 years since someone wasn't reelected, that alone slants the odds in his favor. 

The Democrats are equally the mess the GOP is, but the GOP has the advantage of currently holding the seat. 

It comes down to the Dems finding a candidate everyone can agree on, some will have to hold their noses, but if it's someone so far in either direction, they'll have no chance.

Honestly, even if the stock market was to collapse, I think Trump will blame someone for it and his constituency will fall in line. 

 

Godsbrother

Footballguy
I voted yes for reelection.   He can do no wrong in the eyes of his supporters and the democrats are too screwed up to come up with a likable candidate and united stance on the issues that most Americans care about.

 

roadkill1292

Footballguy
Not that it really matters (don't get me started) but how many people who voted "yes" think that he'll win the popular vote, too?

Oh, prediction: too freaking close to call right now. The country is prone to very bad decision making.

 
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Punxsutawney Phil

Footballguy
timschochet said:
Comes down to Pennsylvania and Florida. Trump needs to win both, same as before. 

I don’t love his chances but there’s a lot of time between now and then. 
Don't worry about FL next election.  The recent amendment 4 passed allowing felons to vote, so that's going to be a huge boost to the Democrats.

 

James Daulton

Footballguy
I have a hard time seeing him getting re-elected.  Who who didn't vote for him will in 2020?  He's proved to be the absolute disaster most of us expected.

And those who held their nose and voted against Hillary will (hopefully) have a much better choice this time around.

And when the economy has clocked in 2.5% gdp increases or less, the trade gap has widened, trillion dollar deficits, and unemployment has ticked up from all time lows, what possible good news can he talk about?  I mean he can continue to lie about the 2.9% gdp being the best economy ever, but real wages are still basically flat and the economy is trending down.

I predict he loses bigly. 

 

roadkill1292

Footballguy
The midterms were pretty encouraging but there's precedent for those not translating into success at upending an incumbent president. Once the Dems have settled on their candidate, the Don will turn attack dog on that person. It'll be ugly, it'll be personal, it'll be irrelevant to the task at hand and he and his supporters will revel in every minute of it. I've never witnessed anything like how he can make that work for him.

 
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Gopher State

Footballguy
I have a hard time seeing him getting re-elected.  Who who didn't vote for him will in 2020?  He's proved to be the absolute disaster most of us expected.

And those who held their nose and voted against Hillary will (hopefully) have a much better choice this time around.

And when the economy has clocked in 2.5% gdp increases or less, the trade gap has widened, trillion dollar deficits, and unemployment has ticked up from all time lows, what possible good news can he talk about?  I mean he can continue to lie about the 2.9% gdp being the best economy ever, but real wages are still basically flat and the economy is trending down.

I predict he loses bigly. 
Unemployment currently at 3.8 percent up from 3:7 which was 49 year low.  Wage growth up to 3 percent with no inflation to speak of, Dow up 10 percent so far this year.  I don’t see this as a bad economy.  Fed taking about possible interest rate cut to keep the economy humming.  Looks to me that people who vote with their pocket book will vote Trump.

If these numbers hold up I see a Trump victory.

 
The results so far are pretty surprising, especially given how many are really against Trump currently. 

And incredibly disappointing, too. 
It might be a good sign, if you believe that in 2016 some would-be Hillary voters didn’t vote or voted third party because they thought she was a lock to win.  I think it’s important for anti-Trump people to be scared this time around.

 

The Commish

Footballguy
Unemployment currently at 3.8 percent up from 3:7 which was 49 year low.  Wage growth up to 3 percent with no inflation to speak of, Dow up 10 percent so far this year.  I don’t see this as a bad economy.  Fed taking about possible interest rate cut to keep the economy humming.  Looks to me that people who vote with their pocket book will vote Trump.

If these numbers hold up I see a Trump victory.
This isn't why they are talking about cutting interest rates.  

 

James Daulton

Footballguy
Unemployment currently at 3.8 percent up from 3:7 which was 49 year low.  Wage growth up to 3 percent with no inflation to speak of, Dow up 10 percent so far this year.  I don’t see this as a bad economy.  Fed taking about possible interest rate cut to keep the economy humming.  Looks to me that people who vote with their pocket book will vote Trump.

If these numbers hold up I see a Trump victory.
Unemployment is good, but it will inevitably tick up higher in the next 18 months.  You may think there's no inflation but real wage growth was 1.5% for 2018.  The Dow can change at the drop of a hat.  GDP growth, which Trump promised would be much higher than 3% hasn't yet hit 3% and is trending down, and we've been saddled with almost $1.6T in additional debt over his first two year.

In the grand scheme of things, people are worse off now than they were 2 years ago simply because wages haven't moved and the deficit is almost 10% higher.  The Dow is up quite a bit but that affects only a few people in any significant capacity.  

 

NCCommish

Footballguy
Every quarter growth has slowed. More and more it seems like a recession is looming. The whole greatest economy was a Wall Street mirage of tax cut driven stock buy backs and looming tariff driven over buying. Real wage growth is minimal. This whole house of cards is about to come down around his ears. If the economy tanks it will hurt his chances with his own party. Not to mention he has lost every demographic except white males over 45. Not to mention Democrats and Independents are going to turn out to vote against him. 

And this idea that none of the Democratic candidates can beat him is pure hubris. Hillary ain't running.

 

Gopher State

Footballguy
Unemployment is good, but it will inevitably tick up higher in the next 18 months.  You may think there's no inflation but real wage growth was 1.5% for 2018.  The Dow can change at the drop of a hat.  GDP growth, which Trump promised would be much higher than 3% hasn't yet hit 3% and is trending down, and we've been saddled with almost $1.6T in additional debt over his first two year.

In the grand scheme of things, people are worse off now than they were 2 years ago simply because wages haven't moved and the deficit is almost 10% higher.  The Dow is up quite a bit but that affects only a few people in any significant capacity.  
I respectfully disagree most people I know are better off then they were two years ago, housing market very strong, lots of jobs, Dow can drop but trending upward, consumers spending at a strong rate.  I agree on the additional debt, but look a the Dems green deal, healthcare for all, and increased pay for teachers, none of which I think are bad, but will send the deficit to the Moon.  I think we are on the brink of a deal with China which will increase GDP.  If things stay the same as today Trump wins, I agree with you if things change Trump could lose. But today the numbers favor Trump.

 

GoBirds

Footballguy
I was convinced he would be done after this term but after the Mueller investigation proved to be a waste of time I think it will make Trump look better and the alternative much less appealing as the tinfoil hat crowd without a clear message giving him a good shot. He could do something dumb of course to screw it up but right now would say his odds are as good as they’ve looked. 

 

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