Will Trump get reelected in 2020? (2019 version) (2 Viewers)

[timschochet]

Could the President have used the Barr memo to win the election? Can he still? Yes here’s how: 

Drop the immigration stuff. Drop the attacks against Obamacare. Announce that you’re glad the Mueller investigation is over, say that you have no hard feelings, you just want to move on. Then announce a big infrastructure plan and ask for bipartisan support. 

Its so easy. If he were to do this, he’d win back independent support. The Democrats would have a very difficult time beating him. But thankfully for them he’s taken the exact opposite approach. He’s doubled down on immigration, attacked Obamacare, and he means to keep talking about the “Russia Hoax” and name calling his enemies for the next two years. He’s handing the Dems the election IMO. 

 

[squistion]

Donald J. Trump‏ @realDonaldTrump 9m9 minutes ago

The Democrats are allowing a ridiculous asylum system and major loopholes to remain as a mainstay of our immigration system. Mexico is likewise doing NOTHING, a very bad combination for our Country. Homeland Security is being sooo very nice, but not for long!

 

[JohnnyU]

Drop the immigration stuff.

Why in the hell would he do that?

 

[GoBirds]

Why in the hell would he do that?

Help me understand why our extreme left friends don’t realize some level of border security is important? Do they just not like to follow laws/rules cause Trump wants it? I honestly don’t get it. 

 

[sho nuff]

Help me understand why our extreme left friends don’t realize some level of border security is important? Do they just not like to follow laws/rules cause Trump wants it? I honestly don’t get it. 

Is the left saying no border security?  Otherwise your statement makes no sense.

Also...who is the extreme left?

 

[timschochet]

Why in the hell would he do that?

Because those who agree with him on it are voting for him anyhow, and he puts at risk other voters who don’t like the way he’s demonizing people. If I was an advisor that’s what I’d tell him. 

 

[timschochet]

Help me understand why our extreme left friends don’t realize some level of border security is important? Do they just not like to follow laws/rules cause Trump wants it? I honestly don’t get it. 

The public absolutely approves of border security. The public does NOT approve of: 

1. Putting children in cages. 

2. Shutting down the government in an attempt to blackmail Democrats into supporting a wall. 

3. Shutting down the border with Mexico. 

4. Cutting off aid to 3 Latin American countries.

These things will help Trump lose. 

 

[JohnnyU]

The public absolutely approves of border security. The public does NOT approve of: 

1. Putting children in cages. 

2. Shutting down the government in an attempt to blackmail Democrats into supporting a wall. 

3. Shutting down the border with Mexico. 

4. Cutting off aid to 3 Latin American countries.

These things will help Trump lose. 

Yes, cutting off aid to those countries is the right move.  Thy should be preventing the migration to the US..  As for the kids in cages, wasn’t he trying to keep families together?  What they should do is bus them right back across the border and not deal with detention.  Stupid catch and release also needs to be changed.  They should shut down the border with Mexico until this mess gets under control and solutions rendered.

 

[JohnnyU]

Because those who agree with him on it are voting for him anyhow, and he puts at risk other voters who don’t like the way he’s demonizing people. If I was an advisor that’s what I’d tell him. 

Preventing illegals from crossing your borders isn’t demonizing people.  A nation without borders isn’t a nation.

 

[GoBirds]

Yes, cutting off aid to those countries is the right move.  Thy should be preventing the migration to the US..  As for the kids in cages, wasn’t he trying to keep families together?  What they should do is bus them right back across the border and not deal with detention.  Stupid catch and release also needs to be changed.  They should shut down the border with Mexico until this mess gets under control and solutions rendered.

As it seems out of control this makes sense.....all need to follow the rules and enter the country in the appropriate manner. I don’t get those that encourage these circumstances where people pour in illegally. 

 

[squistion]

Why in the hell would he do that?

The fear mongering about the border, immigrants, and the migrant caravan didn't work in 2018 and cost the GOP about 40 Congressional seats. If he plays the same cards again in 2020 we already know how this movie will end.

 

[timschochet]

Yes, cutting off aid to those countries is the right move.  Thy should be preventing the migration to the US..  As for the kids in cages, wasn’t he trying to keep families together?  What they should do is bus them right back across the border and not deal with detention.  Stupid catch and release also needs to be changed.  They should shut down the border with Mexico until this mess gets under control and solutions rendered.

Well as I wrote, if you have these views then you’re part of his base, and you’re going to vote for him even if he chooses not to emphasize this issue. Per very consistent polling, most of the voting public does not agree with you. 

 

[JohnnyU]

Well as I wrote, if you have these views then you’re part of his base, and you’re going to vote for him even if he chooses not to emphasize this issue. Per very consistent polling, most of the voting public does not agree with you. 

Immigration got Trump elected and it will get him re-elected.   Both he and Americans know it is a major problem with the US.

 

[sho nuff]

Immigration got Trump elected and it will get him re-elected.   Both he and Americans know it is a major problem with the US.

But his wall is unpopular and while Immigration is a top issue...I don't believe any majority of Americans feel its the problem that Trump and his base do.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/poll-immigration-is-top-concern-and-dems-are-winning

And that is from the examiner...

 

[timschochet]

Immigration got Trump elected and it will get him re-elected.   

Apparently that’s what he believes as well. But I would suggest that the results of the 2018 election should cause you (and he) to rethink this. 

 

[JohnnyU]

Apparently that’s what he believes as well. But I would suggest that the results of the 2018 election should cause you (and he) to rethink this. 

2016 was a Presidential election, big difference IMO.

 

[JohnnyU]

But his wall is unpopular and while Immigration is a top issue...I don't believe any majority of Americans feel its the problem that Trump and his base do.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/poll-immigration-is-top-concern-and-dems-are-winning

And that is from the examiner...

I guess we will find out in 2020 won't we.

 

[timschochet]

2016 was a Presidential election, big difference IMO.

In terms of issues? Why? 

 

[sho nuff]

I guess we will find out in 2020 won't we.

No...we already know the answer to the question of how Americans feel about immigration and the wall...that is what polling does and tells us.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I wouldn't get too carried away with the Obama praise. Something called the Tea Party and GOP congress did keep Obama's spending in check. Who knows what the debt would have been if the Democrats owned both chambers like the first two years.

Ah yes, the Tea Party and the 2010 Republican congress warning us that the $10T debt was Armageddon.  Now it’s 22T and long term interests rates are still historically low with little inflation.  Fair to say the tea party and 2010 GOP Congress were full of ####?

 

[tommyGunZ]

Yes, cutting off aid to those countries is the right move.  Thy should be preventing the migration to the US..  As for the kids in cages, wasn’t he trying to keep families together?  What they should do is bus them right back across the border and not deal with detention.  Stupid catch and release also needs to be changed.  They should shut down the border with Mexico until this mess gets under control and solutions rendered.

How much would it cost the US to shut down the Mexican border for say, a month, in terms of total economic impact? 

 

[JohnnyU]

In terms of issues? Why? 

I feel a single issue like immigration has more impact nationally than in local or state run elections.

 

[JohnnyU]

How much would it cost the US to shut down the Mexican border for say, a month, in terms of total economic impact? 

I don''t know but the cost of border shutdown,, but dealing with being overrun at the border (as Border Patrol agents say), has to offset the cost of shutting it down altogether until it's under control.   Even it the cost is heavy I suspect it is still cheaper than the long term cost of letting your nation take on more illegal immigrants than the system can handle.

 

[JohnnyU]

No...we already know the answer to the question of how Americans feel about immigration and the wall...that is what polling does and tells us.

Yeah, look what polling got you in 2016.

 

[The Commish]

Wait....I am confused.  If our border is the sieve that the Trumpster and his supporters claim it is, what's the point in shutting it down?  That's not going to have any impact other than the limit of goods coming back and forth to the economy.  Is he not content with the cluster#### he created with the tariffs?  Seriously, what gives here?  This position makes zero logical sense.

 

[timschochet]

I don''t know but the cost of border shutdown,, but dealing with being overrun at the border (as Border Patrol agents say), has to offset the cost of shutting it down altogether until it's under control.   Even it the cost is heavy I suspect it is still cheaper than the long term cost of letting your nation take on more illegal immigrants than the system can handle.

Closing the border would cost about a billion dollars a day. Do you suppose the migrant situation costs us the same? 

 

[timschochet]

Yeah, look what polling got you in 2016.

There ought to be a Godwins type of rule here that anytime somebody writes this they lose whatever argument they’re making. 

 

[Sabertooth]

Help me understand why our extreme left friends don’t realize some level of border security is important? Do they just not like to follow laws/rules cause Trump wants it? I honestly don’t get it. 

We have a level of border security already though, right?  I keep hearing about all these arrests on the border.  Also huge shipments of phentynal and drugs being nabbed in ports like Philadelphia.  

 

[Sabertooth]

I don''t know but the cost of border shutdown,, but dealing with being overrun at the border (as Border Patrol agents say), has to offset the cost of shutting it down altogether until it's under control.   Even it the cost is heavy I suspect it is still cheaper than the long term cost of letting your nation take on more illegal immigrants than the system can handle.

Overrun?  Like the Visagoths? 

 

[Sabertooth]

How's everybody dealing with the National Emergency?  Trump was right, this is just like 9/11.  

 

[Sabertooth]

Wait....I am confused.  If our border is the sieve that the Trumpster and his supporters claim it is, what's the point in shutting it down?  That's not going to have any impact other than the limit of goods coming back and forth to the economy.  Is he not content with the cluster#### he created with the tariffs?  Seriously, what gives here?  This position makes zero logical sense.

Logic is so 2012. 

 

[Sabertooth]

Is the left saying no border security?  Otherwise your statement makes no sense.

Also...who is the extreme left?

Anyone left of McConnell.

 

[JohnnyU]

Closing the border would cost about a billion dollars a day. Do you suppose the migrant situation costs us the same? 

I'm not the expert but somehow I doubt the net loss of what we sell vs buy from Mexico is a billion dollars a day.  If you know this as fact please post a link to educate me.

 

[Sabertooth]

I think he will.  I've pretty much lost faith in humanity at this point.  I'm checking out of the politics.  It doesn't really matter what we think.  The gears do the doom of our republic are already in motion.  No way CU gets overturned.  No way citizens can compete with corporations for our politicians loyalty.  It's ovah.  It was a good run.  

 

[JohnnyU]

There ought to be a Godwins type of rule here that anytime somebody writes this they lose whatever argument they’re making. 

Yep, tell that to the liberal media that yelled and screamed after the 2016 election, "How did the polls get this all wrong?".  Verbatim. 

 

[Sabertooth]

Yep, tell that to the liberal media that yelled and screamed after the 2016 election, "How did the polls get this all wrong?".  Verbatim. 

If you think polls have no value, how do you know anything about the pulse of anything?  Just how you "feel" about it?  Or go with your gut? 

 

[sho nuff]

Yeah, look what polling got you in 2016.

Very accurate results as far as voting is concerned?

 

[sho nuff]

Yep, tell that to the liberal media that yelled and screamed after the 2016 election, "How did the polls get this all wrong?".  Verbatim. 

How many times must the polling be discussed before it sinks in?  I mean, its an easy topic to keep posting the actual facts about it rather than the talking points.

 

[JohnnyU]

How many times must the polling be discussed before it sinks in?  I mean, its an easy topic to keep posting the actual facts about it rather than the talking points.

BS, they had it wrong.

 

[Sinn Fein]

BS, they had it wrong.

Who had it wrong?

What were they wrong about?

 

[sho nuff]

BS, they had it wrong.

The analysis of who would win?

Sure...the actual polling that was quite accurate within the margin of error of nationwide voting?  

This has been discussed over and over and over.

 

[JohnnyU]

Who had it wrong?

What were they wrong about?

There were a lot of forecasters out there projecting Clinton as the winner using state and national polls and based on those polls they were projecting a very high probability Clinton would win.  Nationally the polls weren't too bad, they projected she would win the popular vote and she did.  States like Pennsylvania and Ohio went for Trump in a much greater margin than was originally predicted.  

First, who was in the polls?  Non-response Bias - The people who will take your survey are different from the people who won't take your survey.  People who have a lower income, less education, less engaged in politics are less likely to take these surveys.  And if those people don't take the surveys and have a higher than expected turnout to vote, that is a problem with your poll.

Then you have those that voted for Trump even though it was socially undesirable by some people and they don't want to admit it to an interviewer or pollster they plan on voting for Trump.  Then when they get into the poll booth who they actually vote for is different from what they told pollsters. 

Also problem with getting more people telling you they are going to vote than actually turns out.  Pollsters do modeling likely / unlikely electorate   So based on what they're told they put people in groups of likely or unlikely voters. 

Measuring support groups that would turn out for each candidate was difficult in 2016.  Question whether Clinton could turn out some of those coalition groups that turned out for Obama in 2008 and 2012.  Trump drew support from some groups that were traditionally democratic, particularly in some of those Midwest states he was able to flip. 

 

[squistion]

The analysis of who would win?

Sure...the actual polling that was quite accurate within the margin of error of nationwide voting?  

This has been discussed over and over and over.

Nate Silver of 538 said on the eve of the election that he couldn't call it for Trump because he could see him pulling it off within the margin of error depending on how things broke in certain states.

This fiction that everybody had declared Hillary the winner is not accurate.

 

[sho nuff]

So...the polls were wrong because people didn't admit voting for Trump.  Which sounds interesting til you look at the polling and the percent of overall votes and how close they were.

 

[PhantomJB]

Ah yes, the Tea Party and the 2010 Republican congress warning us that the $10T debt was Armageddon.  Now it’s 22T and long term interests rates are still historically low with little inflation.  Fair to say the tea party and 2010 GOP Congress were full of ####?

What is the right debt level then?

You got nothing.

 

[Don't Noonan]

There ought to be a Godwins type of rule here that anytime somebody writes this they lose whatever argument they’re making. 

So you expected Trump to win in 2016?  That is what I thought.  Stop it with the popular vote argument.  

 

[tommyGunZ]

I don''t know but the cost of border shutdown,, but dealing with being overrun at the border (as Border Patrol agents say), has to offset the cost of shutting it down altogether until it's under control.   Even it the cost is heavy I suspect it is still cheaper than the long term cost of letting your nation take on more illegal immigrants than the system can handle.

Don’t you think you should know the costs of a policy before advocating for it?  I thought you considered yourself a conservative?

 

[tommyGunZ]

What is the right debt level then?

You got nothing.

It certainly wasn’t what you and the Tea Party were whining about on 2010, that’s for sure.  

 

[dkp993]

Help me understand why our extreme left friends don’t realize some level of border security is important? Do they just not like to follow laws/rules cause Trump wants it? I honestly don’t get it. 

Help me understand why our friends on the right make statements like this implying there is no current border security.  

Really “some level of boarder security”?!  You sound like stealthycat right now.  Have you ever been to the boarder? Those green and white cars and trucks, those guys that look like cops but dressed in green everywhere, those checkpoints, THATS ALL BOARDER SECURTIY.  

 

[dkp993]

As someone who has lived on the boarder (and crossed back and forth over it probably 75 times) my entire life this whole thing is asinine.  PURE political fodder.  My next door neighbor is boarder patrol, like any protection agency they’d like more money and resources to better do thier job but that will always be the case.  This is fear mongering pure and simple, all while we all watch our education system crumble and continue to get funding cut.  It heartbreaking and absolutely frightening to watch.