Win Probability shifts throughout the Colts-Patriots game (1 Viewer)

[Hoss Bog]

Check out this game breakdown with how much the Colts' win probability changed throughout the game.

No. 1: 4th quarter, 2:08, Peyton Manning completes a 32-yard pass to Bryan Fletcher

Colts' Win Probability before play: 17%

Colts' Win Probability after play: 58%

Impact: 41%

Commentary: With the Colts down 31-28, Manning's big pass on second-and-10 takes them from their own 31 into Patriots territory at the 37. The big gain allows Indy to start thinking about scoring seven for the win rather than just three for the tie.

This chart is a good way of seeing just how improbable Manning's comeback was.

What a game!

 

[parasaurolophus]

How exactly are these probabilities calculated?

Seems kinda gimicky to me.

 

[thesurfshop19]

The thing I'm wondering ... do Win Probabilities only take into account field position, time, possession, and point margin?

Does it treat a 41-38 lead in the 4th quarter, where offenses have dominated, the same as a 10-7 lead?