Jason Wood
Zoo York
It's February, the NFL coaching carousel is pretty much over, and we're in that lull right before free agency, Pro Days and the April draft start getting going. There are a TREMENDOUS amount of unknowns about the NFL draft process at this point. We need to get real measurables on most of the prospects, and of course Pro Days will help settle a lot of the current debate about how positions rank. And, of course, team needs are going to narrow considerably once free agency gets rolling.
In any event, here's my first mock draft of the year with many revisions to follow as the offseason progresses.
Round One Mock Draft
1.01) Houston Texans -- RB Reggie Bush, USC
No surprises here, I personally believe Bush will do nothing to hurt his already lofty grade and with the Texans picking up the option on Carr, Bush is the guy IF the Texans stay at 1.01. Regardless of what people on this board may think of Bush, there hasn't been a non QB with as universally high a pre-Combine grade in a long, long time.
1.02) New Orleans Saints -- QB Matt Leinart, USC
Leinart should and will be the Saints choice. Leinart has just about everything a team could want in a young franchise QB prospect, carries a higher grade than any of the QBs coming out the last few years, and goes to a team that happens to have a real need for a new QB with Aaron Brooks expected to be sent packing. New head coach Sean Payton is known for his work with QBs, this pick is too easy.
1.03) Tennessee Titans -- OT D'Brickshaw Ferguson, Virginia
95% of all mocks have Vince Young going to the Titans but I'm not sure it plays out that way. One, I think as Brick works out further and shows that he's not only the best OT in this draft by a wide margin, but grades out as a true cornerstone tackle. Two, Vince Young's flaws as passer are exposed and Norm Chow makes the case that he's not a fit for the Titans offense, at least not as currently constituted.
1.04) New York Jets -- QB Vince Young, Texas
Young is going to fall, but not that far. The Jets, already committed to a youth movement top to bottom [GM, HC, OC] can't pass up the chance at greatness, even though Young has a ton of risk involved too. The Jets will, by April, know whether Chad Pennington was willing to take the big pay cut. If he does, Young interns for a year or two. If he doesn't, a veteran is brought in for a bit and Young's timetable to play is accelerated.
1.05) Green Bay Packers -- OLB A.J. Hawk, Ohio State
The first of many Buckeyes to be drafted early, Hawk is a special player who stands out in a year when the LB crop is excellent. The Packers need help in a lot of places, and won't pass up the best available talent, which is Hawk at this point. Hawk brings the kind of all purpose game the Packers haven't had on their defensive front seven in some time.
1.06) Oakland Raiders -- DE Mario Williams, NC State
6'6", almost 300 pounds and equally adept at rushing the passer and playing the run, Williams is the class of the defensive end group this year and will fit perfectly opposite surprise AFC sack leader Derrick Burgess.
1.07) San Francisco 49ers -- TE Vernon Davis, Maryland
The 49ers drafted Alex Smith last year and need to surround him with talented offensive players. Vernon Davis has the chance to be the next dominant TE in the league, and has rare athleticism and soft hands to go along with good size. In a great year for TEs, Davis won't escape the top 10 after teams get a look at him in his Pro Day and at the Combine.
1.08) Buffalo Bills -- DT Haloti Ngata, Oregon
It seems I'm in the majority on this pick, as many mocks have Ngata going to Buffalo. The pick makes so much sense given a) the Bills need to reinvigorate its run defense, b) Ngata's projected draft grade suggests he's a top-10 player and the best DT in the draft class.
1.09) Detroit Lions -- QB Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt
This pick confounds me and ultimately I doubt my final mock will have Cutler being drafted here. But for now I see the logic given Cutler's potential as a franchise QB and the Lions new coaching staff likely signaling the end of the Joey Harrington era. However, with Mike Martz signing on, the Lions could well give Harrington one year under Mike and in that case, would turn their attention elsewhere, potentially Winston Justice or Michael Huff.
1.10) Arizona Cardinals -- OT Winston Justice, USC
There are a lot of ways the Cardinals could go with this pick, but if they're serious in re-signing Kurt Warner [we'll know by the draft], they HAVE to make the OL a major priority. In Justice, they get someone that should start immediately. Furthermore, Denny Green has recently gone on record saying that the offensive line will be a major focal point this offseason.
1.11) St. Louis Rams -- DB Michael Huff, Texas
A lot of folks think the Rams will go offense because of Scott Linehan's hiring. But in listening to Linehan in recent interviews, he's laser focused on the need improve the defense. Huff projects as a physical corner and, in my opinion, will end up with a higher rating than Jimmy Williams or Tye Hill once the pre draft workouts commence.
1.12) Cleveland Browns -- OLB Chad Greenway, Iowa
This is one of those picks that makes too much sense not to project. The Browns had a need for playmaking linebackers to run Crennel's complex 3-4 scheme and Greenway reasserted himself as an elite LB prospect with a great Senior Bowl week.
1.13) Baltimore Ravens -- RB DeAngelo Williams, Memphis
It seems most mock drafts have the Ravens looking at LenDale White, likely because they project White as the closer approximation to Jamal Lewis [a big inside runner]. But DeAngelo Williams is the better all around back and, if he's available here, will give the Ravens something they don't currently have, an every down franchise runner.
1.14) Philadelphia Eagles -- DE Tamba Hali, Penn State
The Eagles could go a lot of directions with this pick [or could trade up given the plethora of picks they've stockpiled], but if they stay here, I believe Hali is their guy. Hali is someone the Eagles know well [a local product] and his performance at the Senior Bowl cemented his status as the 2nd best end in the draft [behind Mario Williams].
1.15) Atlanta Falcons -- DT Brodrick Bunkley, Florida State
No draft goes completely the way we expect, in that teams don't always draft for need [particularly the very good franchises]. While the Falcons have Rod Coleman and like what they see in Chad Lavalais, their defensive line needs young playmakers and Bunkley will be too tempting to pass up at this point. DTs have a way of vaulting up the charts and Bunkley is my pick for the 2006 "fast riser."
1.16) Miami Dolphins -- CB Tye Hill, Clemson
The Dolphins probably find some way to end up with Jay Cutler the more I think about things, but if they stay at 16 and let Madison walk as expected, I think they opt for Hill at this spot. Again, people are going to wonder why I have Hill going ahead of Jimmy Williams, but with the way Hill blanketed receivers at the Senior Bowl and given his projected speed, I think Hill goes higher. The NFL has a long history of coveting blazing 40 times at corner and Hill should oblige.
1.17) Minnesota Vikings -- RB LenDale White, USC
New HC Brad Childress is, believe it or not, a huge proponent of a power running game. He didn't get a chance to show that in Philadelphia under Andy Reid. White should flourish behind the Vikings sizable offensive line, and gives the team a big back with natural goal line skills allowing it to no longer have to rely on a committee.
1.18) Dallas Cowboys -- CB/S Jimmy Williams, Virginia Tech
The Jimmy Williams free fall ends in Dallas, where Bill Parcells isn't afraid to add Williams to the mix. Ultimately Williams may project as a safety in the NFL, and the Cowboys could find a spot for him at either CB or S in 2006.
1.19) San Diego Chargers -- WR Santonio Holmes, Ohio State
The Chargers are another team that could go in a ton of directions, but I think Holmes is too compelling an option at this point in the 1st round for the Chargers to pass up. They addressed the defense last year via the draft, and definitely have the need for a young potential WR1, particularly with Keenan McCardell getting into the twilight of his career.
1.20) Kansas City Chiefs -- CB Ashton Youboty, Ohio State
Back to back Buckeyes as Herm Edwards gets his wish and the Chiefs add a defensive playmaker in the secondary. Youboty needs to solidify his status as a first rounder, but if he performs at the Combine as projected, he'll come off the board in the mid- to late-first round IMHO.
1.21) New England Patriots -- OLB Demeco Ryans, Alabama
The Patriots are never afraid to draft football players, regardless of their measurables. Some project Ryans to fall given his size [or lack thereof], but his unbelievably smart and consistent level of play for Alabama is all Belichick will need to add Ryans to the Patriots LB corps.
1.22) Denver Broncos [via Washington] -- C Nick Mangold, Ohio State
Mangold did everything he needed to at the Senior Week to work his way into the late 1st, early 2nd round mix. The Broncos need a youth infusion on the O-line and Mangold is the kind of smart, athletic blocker that has historically flourished under Shanahan. The Broncos may play Mangold at guard initially.
1.23) Tampa Bay Bucs -- OT Marcus McNeil, Auburn
McNeil was once considered a top 10 pick before the 2005 collegiate season, but he along with several other OT prospects failed to live up to lofty expectations. In any event, McNeil has a mean streak and is too athletic and technically sound for the Bucs to pass up. McNeil fills a need and is among the best players available.
1.24) Cincinnati Bengals -- TE Dominique Byrd, USC
It's a great TE class, with as many as six TEs possibly coming off the board in the first two rounds. Byrd outplayed [and out practiced] Marcedes Lewis at the Senior Bowl and is a natural fit with the Bengals as TE is one of the few offensive positions of need.
1.25) New York Giants -- LB Thomas Howard, UTEP
The Giants need 'backers and Howard is the best available at this point. Howard is a bit undersized but is versatile and should cement himself as a first rounder in the coming months.
1.26) Chicago Bears -- TE Leonard Pope, Georgia
The Bears need more offensive playmakers, but they're not going to lose their identity as a smash mouth, ball control team after the success they had in 2005. Pope is less polished offensively than the other top TE prospects but is still a quality player. But as importantly, he's the best blocker in the group and would help the running game as much as Rex Grossman.
1.27) Carolina Panthers -- DT Gate Watson, Michigan
Gabe Watson emerged from a crowded DT pack [after Ngata, that is], at the Senior Bowl and fits well with the Panthers. Watson is a classic 4-3 DT and would fit into the Panthers line rotation immediately and project as full time starter in a year or two.
1.28) Jacksonville Jaguars -- DE Matthius Kiwanuka, Boston College
Kiwanuka was viewed as a potential top-10 pick heading into the 2005 college season but nagging injuries have hampered his stock as he's been unable to display the natural pass rush moves seen earlier in his career. He was manhandled on a consistent basis by D'Brick at the Senior Bowl and will need a strong private workout to convince someone to take him in the late 1st. But the Jags have a need here and, injury concerns abated, Kiwanuka shouldn't fall this far based on his potential as a dominant DE with good size.
1.29) Denver Broncos -- DT Rod Wright, Texas
Rod Wright is the forgotten man of defensive tackles this year it seems but is a solid pro prospect with more athleticism than normally found in a stay at home DT. Wright could go much higher depending on his workouts, as DT is a coveted position traditionally, but if he's still on the board I think Denver snaps him up with their 2nd of two 1st round selections. This presumes the Broncos have some issue re-signing G. Warren; a priority this offseason.
1.30) Indianapolis Colts -- RB Laurence Maroney, Minnesota
Maroney would be a fantasy owners dream under this scenario, as he would be going to a ready made offense where teams couldn't stack the box, and he'd presumably have the starting job from Day One. Assuming Edge is gone in free agency, the Colts would have to look long and hard at Maroney who was highly productive as a workhorse back at Minnesota the last few seasons.
1.31) Seattle Seahawks -- FS Ko Simpson, South Carolina
The way the Seahawks safeties were exposed in the Super Bowl, Simpson seems like a great fit for a team without a ton of major needs. Simpson is a 3rd year sophomore who surprised many by declaring. He's a tackling machine but showed the ability to cover when called upon. The Hawks could go in a ton of directions here, but I'm projecting a bit that Simpson will continue to gain momentum as scouts get a look at him. As a sophomore playing for South Carolina, he doesn't have the high profile as some of the other DBs carrying potential 1st day grades.
1.32) Pittsburgh Steelers -- WR Sinorice Moss, Miami
When you just won the Super Bowl, you take a best player available approach most of the time. Assuming the Steelers lose Randel-El, they have a need for another wideout and a return man, and Moss is the most explosive option on the draft board.
Enjoy and feel free to comment/agree/disagree/debate/discuss! The next mock will come post the Combine, at which point 80% of these picks will probably be different.
In any event, here's my first mock draft of the year with many revisions to follow as the offseason progresses.
Round One Mock Draft
1.01) Houston Texans -- RB Reggie Bush, USC
No surprises here, I personally believe Bush will do nothing to hurt his already lofty grade and with the Texans picking up the option on Carr, Bush is the guy IF the Texans stay at 1.01. Regardless of what people on this board may think of Bush, there hasn't been a non QB with as universally high a pre-Combine grade in a long, long time.
1.02) New Orleans Saints -- QB Matt Leinart, USC
Leinart should and will be the Saints choice. Leinart has just about everything a team could want in a young franchise QB prospect, carries a higher grade than any of the QBs coming out the last few years, and goes to a team that happens to have a real need for a new QB with Aaron Brooks expected to be sent packing. New head coach Sean Payton is known for his work with QBs, this pick is too easy.
1.03) Tennessee Titans -- OT D'Brickshaw Ferguson, Virginia
95% of all mocks have Vince Young going to the Titans but I'm not sure it plays out that way. One, I think as Brick works out further and shows that he's not only the best OT in this draft by a wide margin, but grades out as a true cornerstone tackle. Two, Vince Young's flaws as passer are exposed and Norm Chow makes the case that he's not a fit for the Titans offense, at least not as currently constituted.
1.04) New York Jets -- QB Vince Young, Texas
Young is going to fall, but not that far. The Jets, already committed to a youth movement top to bottom [GM, HC, OC] can't pass up the chance at greatness, even though Young has a ton of risk involved too. The Jets will, by April, know whether Chad Pennington was willing to take the big pay cut. If he does, Young interns for a year or two. If he doesn't, a veteran is brought in for a bit and Young's timetable to play is accelerated.
1.05) Green Bay Packers -- OLB A.J. Hawk, Ohio State
The first of many Buckeyes to be drafted early, Hawk is a special player who stands out in a year when the LB crop is excellent. The Packers need help in a lot of places, and won't pass up the best available talent, which is Hawk at this point. Hawk brings the kind of all purpose game the Packers haven't had on their defensive front seven in some time.
1.06) Oakland Raiders -- DE Mario Williams, NC State
6'6", almost 300 pounds and equally adept at rushing the passer and playing the run, Williams is the class of the defensive end group this year and will fit perfectly opposite surprise AFC sack leader Derrick Burgess.
1.07) San Francisco 49ers -- TE Vernon Davis, Maryland
The 49ers drafted Alex Smith last year and need to surround him with talented offensive players. Vernon Davis has the chance to be the next dominant TE in the league, and has rare athleticism and soft hands to go along with good size. In a great year for TEs, Davis won't escape the top 10 after teams get a look at him in his Pro Day and at the Combine.
1.08) Buffalo Bills -- DT Haloti Ngata, Oregon
It seems I'm in the majority on this pick, as many mocks have Ngata going to Buffalo. The pick makes so much sense given a) the Bills need to reinvigorate its run defense, b) Ngata's projected draft grade suggests he's a top-10 player and the best DT in the draft class.
1.09) Detroit Lions -- QB Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt
This pick confounds me and ultimately I doubt my final mock will have Cutler being drafted here. But for now I see the logic given Cutler's potential as a franchise QB and the Lions new coaching staff likely signaling the end of the Joey Harrington era. However, with Mike Martz signing on, the Lions could well give Harrington one year under Mike and in that case, would turn their attention elsewhere, potentially Winston Justice or Michael Huff.
1.10) Arizona Cardinals -- OT Winston Justice, USC
There are a lot of ways the Cardinals could go with this pick, but if they're serious in re-signing Kurt Warner [we'll know by the draft], they HAVE to make the OL a major priority. In Justice, they get someone that should start immediately. Furthermore, Denny Green has recently gone on record saying that the offensive line will be a major focal point this offseason.
1.11) St. Louis Rams -- DB Michael Huff, Texas
A lot of folks think the Rams will go offense because of Scott Linehan's hiring. But in listening to Linehan in recent interviews, he's laser focused on the need improve the defense. Huff projects as a physical corner and, in my opinion, will end up with a higher rating than Jimmy Williams or Tye Hill once the pre draft workouts commence.
1.12) Cleveland Browns -- OLB Chad Greenway, Iowa
This is one of those picks that makes too much sense not to project. The Browns had a need for playmaking linebackers to run Crennel's complex 3-4 scheme and Greenway reasserted himself as an elite LB prospect with a great Senior Bowl week.
1.13) Baltimore Ravens -- RB DeAngelo Williams, Memphis
It seems most mock drafts have the Ravens looking at LenDale White, likely because they project White as the closer approximation to Jamal Lewis [a big inside runner]. But DeAngelo Williams is the better all around back and, if he's available here, will give the Ravens something they don't currently have, an every down franchise runner.
1.14) Philadelphia Eagles -- DE Tamba Hali, Penn State
The Eagles could go a lot of directions with this pick [or could trade up given the plethora of picks they've stockpiled], but if they stay here, I believe Hali is their guy. Hali is someone the Eagles know well [a local product] and his performance at the Senior Bowl cemented his status as the 2nd best end in the draft [behind Mario Williams].
1.15) Atlanta Falcons -- DT Brodrick Bunkley, Florida State
No draft goes completely the way we expect, in that teams don't always draft for need [particularly the very good franchises]. While the Falcons have Rod Coleman and like what they see in Chad Lavalais, their defensive line needs young playmakers and Bunkley will be too tempting to pass up at this point. DTs have a way of vaulting up the charts and Bunkley is my pick for the 2006 "fast riser."
1.16) Miami Dolphins -- CB Tye Hill, Clemson
The Dolphins probably find some way to end up with Jay Cutler the more I think about things, but if they stay at 16 and let Madison walk as expected, I think they opt for Hill at this spot. Again, people are going to wonder why I have Hill going ahead of Jimmy Williams, but with the way Hill blanketed receivers at the Senior Bowl and given his projected speed, I think Hill goes higher. The NFL has a long history of coveting blazing 40 times at corner and Hill should oblige.
1.17) Minnesota Vikings -- RB LenDale White, USC
New HC Brad Childress is, believe it or not, a huge proponent of a power running game. He didn't get a chance to show that in Philadelphia under Andy Reid. White should flourish behind the Vikings sizable offensive line, and gives the team a big back with natural goal line skills allowing it to no longer have to rely on a committee.
1.18) Dallas Cowboys -- CB/S Jimmy Williams, Virginia Tech
The Jimmy Williams free fall ends in Dallas, where Bill Parcells isn't afraid to add Williams to the mix. Ultimately Williams may project as a safety in the NFL, and the Cowboys could find a spot for him at either CB or S in 2006.
1.19) San Diego Chargers -- WR Santonio Holmes, Ohio State
The Chargers are another team that could go in a ton of directions, but I think Holmes is too compelling an option at this point in the 1st round for the Chargers to pass up. They addressed the defense last year via the draft, and definitely have the need for a young potential WR1, particularly with Keenan McCardell getting into the twilight of his career.
1.20) Kansas City Chiefs -- CB Ashton Youboty, Ohio State
Back to back Buckeyes as Herm Edwards gets his wish and the Chiefs add a defensive playmaker in the secondary. Youboty needs to solidify his status as a first rounder, but if he performs at the Combine as projected, he'll come off the board in the mid- to late-first round IMHO.
1.21) New England Patriots -- OLB Demeco Ryans, Alabama
The Patriots are never afraid to draft football players, regardless of their measurables. Some project Ryans to fall given his size [or lack thereof], but his unbelievably smart and consistent level of play for Alabama is all Belichick will need to add Ryans to the Patriots LB corps.
1.22) Denver Broncos [via Washington] -- C Nick Mangold, Ohio State
Mangold did everything he needed to at the Senior Week to work his way into the late 1st, early 2nd round mix. The Broncos need a youth infusion on the O-line and Mangold is the kind of smart, athletic blocker that has historically flourished under Shanahan. The Broncos may play Mangold at guard initially.
1.23) Tampa Bay Bucs -- OT Marcus McNeil, Auburn
McNeil was once considered a top 10 pick before the 2005 collegiate season, but he along with several other OT prospects failed to live up to lofty expectations. In any event, McNeil has a mean streak and is too athletic and technically sound for the Bucs to pass up. McNeil fills a need and is among the best players available.
1.24) Cincinnati Bengals -- TE Dominique Byrd, USC
It's a great TE class, with as many as six TEs possibly coming off the board in the first two rounds. Byrd outplayed [and out practiced] Marcedes Lewis at the Senior Bowl and is a natural fit with the Bengals as TE is one of the few offensive positions of need.
1.25) New York Giants -- LB Thomas Howard, UTEP
The Giants need 'backers and Howard is the best available at this point. Howard is a bit undersized but is versatile and should cement himself as a first rounder in the coming months.
1.26) Chicago Bears -- TE Leonard Pope, Georgia
The Bears need more offensive playmakers, but they're not going to lose their identity as a smash mouth, ball control team after the success they had in 2005. Pope is less polished offensively than the other top TE prospects but is still a quality player. But as importantly, he's the best blocker in the group and would help the running game as much as Rex Grossman.
1.27) Carolina Panthers -- DT Gate Watson, Michigan
Gabe Watson emerged from a crowded DT pack [after Ngata, that is], at the Senior Bowl and fits well with the Panthers. Watson is a classic 4-3 DT and would fit into the Panthers line rotation immediately and project as full time starter in a year or two.
1.28) Jacksonville Jaguars -- DE Matthius Kiwanuka, Boston College
Kiwanuka was viewed as a potential top-10 pick heading into the 2005 college season but nagging injuries have hampered his stock as he's been unable to display the natural pass rush moves seen earlier in his career. He was manhandled on a consistent basis by D'Brick at the Senior Bowl and will need a strong private workout to convince someone to take him in the late 1st. But the Jags have a need here and, injury concerns abated, Kiwanuka shouldn't fall this far based on his potential as a dominant DE with good size.
1.29) Denver Broncos -- DT Rod Wright, Texas
Rod Wright is the forgotten man of defensive tackles this year it seems but is a solid pro prospect with more athleticism than normally found in a stay at home DT. Wright could go much higher depending on his workouts, as DT is a coveted position traditionally, but if he's still on the board I think Denver snaps him up with their 2nd of two 1st round selections. This presumes the Broncos have some issue re-signing G. Warren; a priority this offseason.
1.30) Indianapolis Colts -- RB Laurence Maroney, Minnesota
Maroney would be a fantasy owners dream under this scenario, as he would be going to a ready made offense where teams couldn't stack the box, and he'd presumably have the starting job from Day One. Assuming Edge is gone in free agency, the Colts would have to look long and hard at Maroney who was highly productive as a workhorse back at Minnesota the last few seasons.
1.31) Seattle Seahawks -- FS Ko Simpson, South Carolina
The way the Seahawks safeties were exposed in the Super Bowl, Simpson seems like a great fit for a team without a ton of major needs. Simpson is a 3rd year sophomore who surprised many by declaring. He's a tackling machine but showed the ability to cover when called upon. The Hawks could go in a ton of directions here, but I'm projecting a bit that Simpson will continue to gain momentum as scouts get a look at him. As a sophomore playing for South Carolina, he doesn't have the high profile as some of the other DBs carrying potential 1st day grades.
1.32) Pittsburgh Steelers -- WR Sinorice Moss, Miami
When you just won the Super Bowl, you take a best player available approach most of the time. Assuming the Steelers lose Randel-El, they have a need for another wideout and a return man, and Moss is the most explosive option on the draft board.
Enjoy and feel free to comment/agree/disagree/debate/discuss! The next mock will come post the Combine, at which point 80% of these picks will probably be different.
) -- he would actually be about the best fit for the team.
That was me...which is why I emphasize that a) this is purely because I'm bored, and b) it's going to change a LOT between now and then.
