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Worth the Risk to draft McNabb (1 Viewer)

rascal

Footballguy
So I was working on my QB rankings and I was analyzing the SOS. In case you haven't looked at McNabb SOS go ahead and take a glance. It is easily the easiest schedule for QBs.

I have owned McNabb before, and the value of picking him in the fifth/sixth round to put up Manning type numbers is simply huge. Granted he is an injury risk, but IMO if you can find the ideal complimentary QB in later rounds it is worth the risk.

Ideally the complimentary player should excel during fantasy playoffs and the time leading up to that (based on McNabbs previous history of when his injuries occur. Looking at Gray's QB SOS the following teams have the best SOS during that time (last 5):

ATL

BUF

CAR

CHI

DAL

PHI

STL

TB

Obviously we eliminate PHI, DAL, and STL because the QB's ADP is too high and I'm looking for somebody I can snag late in drafts. That leaves ATL, BUF, CAR, CHI, and TB.

Personally I don't feel comfortable leaving my fantasy team in the hands of Harrington, Garcia, or Losman.

IMO if you want to gamble and take McNabb, you should look to target Delhomme or Grossman later in drafts to provide insurance should McNabb not make it through. Should he do so...well congratulations you got a QB putting up manning type numbers in the sixth round.

You might also consider the strategy of picking up Feeley very late in the draft. While he probably won't Garcia numbers, with their SOS and the pass happy offense he could still be a competent safety valve.

Am I insane?

 
So I was working on my QB rankings and I was analyzing the SOS. In case you haven't looked at McNabb SOS go ahead and take a glance. It is easily the easiest schedule for QBs.I have owned McNabb before, and the value of picking him in the fifth/sixth round to put up Manning type numbers is simply huge. Granted he is an injury risk, but IMO if you can find the ideal complimentary QB in later rounds it is worth the risk.Ideally the complimentary player should excel during fantasy playoffs and the time leading up to that (based on McNabbs previous history of when his injuries occur. Looking at Gray's QB SOS the following teams have the best SOS during that time (last 5):ATLBUFCARCHIDALPHISTLTBObviously we eliminate PHI, DAL, and STL because the QB's ADP is too high and I'm looking for somebody I can snag late in drafts. That leaves ATL, BUF, CAR, CHI, and TB.Personally I don't feel comfortable leaving my fantasy team in the hands of Harrington, Garcia, or Losman.IMO if you want to gamble and take McNabb, you should look to target Delhomme or Grossman later in drafts to provide insurance should McNabb not make it through. Should he do so...well congratulations you got a QB putting up manning type numbers in the sixth round.You might also consider the strategy of picking up Feeley very late in the draft. While he probably won't Garcia numbers, with their SOS and the pass happy offense he could still be a competent safety valve.Am I insane?
Not at all. Or, if you are, then so am I. In a recently completed Draftmasters league (no trades or waivers, you're stuck with who you draft) I got McNabb, Losman, and Delhomme. It's also a "best-ball" format, so I don't even have to decide who to start - whichever one scores the most each week will count as my starter. :thumbup:
 
I've been leaning this way as well, as I think Delhomme, Losman, and Grossman are good late picks to take fliers on too. However, I have the 10th pick in a 12 team draft, so unless I take him at 4.03, I don't think I'll get him unless I can move up from the 5.10 pick. I had McNabb last season, but unfortunately I traded away Kitna the week before the injury. I won't be dealing my #2 QB this season.

 
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I don't think I would take him at 4.03 (at that point Brees and Bulger should also be available). I think I would wait till 5.10 and if he is there take him, if not then change your QB strategy.

 
I take it you have to grab McNabb in the 5th round to insure getting him these days?

Am I crazy to be targetting him at 5.03? I like him, but feel like that's a bit early to be taking a guy coming off that type of injury.

What round was Carson Palmer's ADP in last year's drafts when he was coming back from his ACL?

 
Love him in the 5th.

take him and ride his gigantic fantasy points per game until he gets hurt.

then plug whatever QB you drafted in the late rounds.

McNabb's draft history reminds me a lot of Tiki Barber's... guys who's ADP bounce back and forth from 2nd to 5th round every other year... and whenever you get him (them) in that late round year, they're gold.

 
I take it you have to grab McNabb in the 5th round to insure getting him these days?

Am I crazy to be targetting him at 5.03? I like him, but feel like that's a bit early to be taking a guy coming off that type of injury.

What round was Carson Palmer's ADP in last year's drafts when he was coming back from his ACL?
Palmer went at 4.01 in my redraft last season. But in comparison, McNabb has had more time to rehabilitate his knee and I think Palmer's injury was much more severe.
 
Don't like McNabb at all. Blew out his ACL Nov 19th. It takes an entire year to recover completely from an ACL (ask Carson Palmer). And McNabb is a mobile QB who needs 2 healthy ACLs more than the average Joe at QB.

 
whodeywhodey said:
Don't like McNabb at all. Blew out his ACL Nov 19th. It takes an entire year to recover completely from an ACL (ask Carson Palmer). And McNabb is a mobile QB who needs 2 healthy ACLs more than the average Joe at QB.
I believe Carson Palmer had an awfully good year last season following his ACL injury, and had less time to make his recovery.McNabb seems like the more athletic of the two. If Palmer could get back, seems like McNabb can get back with a few additional months of recovery.But I could be wrong.
 
whodeywhodey said:
Don't like McNabb at all. Blew out his ACL Nov 19th. It takes an entire year to recover completely from an ACL (ask Carson Palmer). And McNabb is a mobile QB who needs 2 healthy ACLs more than the average Joe at QB.
I know its only pre-season, but McNabb sure looked good to me.
 

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