Would drafting top rookie WRs be too costly a move this year? (1 Viewer)

[mjr]

While there are exceptions once in a great while, most people agree it's normally difficult for rookie WRs to grasp a pro-style offense. The whole "3rd-year reciever" theory pretty much revolves around that basic fact. Now, you have to add this lockout on top of that which is depriving these rookies of even beginning to acclimate to their respective offenses. No playbooks in some cases, no organized team practices in others, etc. And... if that's not enough, AJ Green is facing even more complications with the big uncertainty as to who's going to be under center in Cincy come week 1. Sprinkle on top the postponing of cuts and FA moves and you've got quite the Adversity Sundae for rooks to swallow.

The learning curve for these rookie WRs is literally getting steeper and steeper by the day, which leads me to think there's going to be massive struggles and these guys are going to put up a season that would even remotely reflect the potential and hype these guys are getting right now.

All of this leads me to wonder if guys like AJ or Julio can be had cheeper through trade later on, after a far from spectacular season, rather than spending a 1.01 or 1.02 picks now and passing on RB's who can be much more effective in their rookie and softmore campaigns.

With the learning curve this year being steeper than it ever has been, is 2011 the year to reconsider using high picks on rookie WRs?

 

[_lurker_]

Agreed, but I'll still roll the dice on whichever rookie WR that Rod Smith is working with. Does anyone know what Smith is up to? He was awesome for Eddie Royal's rookie year!

 

[mlball77]

I'm not sure how much more of an impact the lockout and resulting lack of practice time etc. hurts rookie WRs vs. rookie RBs. Is the difference really significant? I'm not so sure.

Ex: A rookie RB could have less time to learn the pass protection schemes due to the lockout and see less playing time than he likely would have in a non-lockout year. If a rookie RB is in at all on downs that aren't obvious run downs, he needs to have a decent grasp on the pass protection schemes, it seems to me. So this could hurt some rookie RBs this year.

What I am sort of considering is the rookie WRs and RBs that got their respective team's playbook and are going to the player-led workouts for their new teams. Rookie WRs and RBs that have these might have a marked head start over other rookie WRs/RBs.

ETA: If you're proposing to trade away early rookie draft picks this year and then target guys you would have drafted after a potentially sub par rookie campaign, that might be a solid approach. If you're proposing taking a second tier rookie RB over AJ Green because you think the lockout impacts Green/WRs more, I'm not really sold.

 

[B Maverick]

How much practice do rookies get before they are signed in normal years? Do they get to go to passing camps and OTA? Do they get playbooks prior to signing? With most rookies not being signed until July/Aug anyway, whats the effect?

I am just curious how much the lockout will actually hurt rookies.

 

[Slider]

The 3 year WR development thing is pretty much dead.

 

[thriftyrocker]

If the hypothesis is you can get Julio or Green cheaper next year, I don't see that happening. Crabtree had the built-in excuse that he didn't participate in training camp, and his value didn't go down at all until end of Y2. If other WRs have a bad year or ride the pines - from Little and Baldwin to Gates and Brown - they very well could be cheaper. This has little to do with the NFL lockout and more to do with the boom/bust nature of non-elite WRs. The only 2010 WRs who are worth equal or more now than in 2010 are probably Dez, Williams, Danario Alexander, Emmanuel Sanders, Jacoby Ford.

 

[corpcow]

If you're a believer in their talent, then I think you secure them now. Calvin Johnson never got any cheaper even after a 48/756/4 rookie year, far from mindblowing - because once people saw him on the field, they saw the talent.

 

[FUBAR]

Depends on a few things. But BLUF, I think we could get Green cheaper next year, but Jones might cost more. In a very active league, it might make sense to take Jones over Green and swap later. (risky, but if you value them closely, not a bad risk to take)

First is clearly talent, both Jones and Green have this in spades.

Second is league / owner specific. If you pass on these two, who will take them? Is this owner impatient with young players, or is he likely to hold onto them? If you're in a league with a couple bad owners who bail on players early, by all means let them take them and then try to beat others to make a deal.

Finally is the situation. Here, I think Green will be slightly devalued and Jones slightly enhanced. I think it's likely that Green doesn't do exceptionally well this year (I'm avoiding him in redrafts at his ADP), while Jones could do better simply because he has the better QB and will be at best the 2nd guy covered. He's more likely to be the beneficiary of blown coverage, and if he can learn at least part of the playbook, he'll be at an advantage. Of course, he might get less targets too, but I think that's balanced out by him appearing to play better against weaker coverage. IMO, the most important thing you can get from a rookie WR is watching him play and he'll just look better against weaker coverage. Meanwhile, Green without the benefit of a long camp will face veteran corners who are less likely to blow coverage. In the long term, this is okay as he has the talent to dominate even if the D plays perfectly. But I tend to not like WRs who have to be the #1 from day one, especially with a bad QB. Of course, if Moss hits town or 85 or TO stay, that partly changes. Still his QB sucks.

 

[Shutout]

I would agree that this is likely a "bad" year for rookie WRs. You just can't overlook what the abcense of MENTAL preperation will do for players. You know how NFL coaches are: they obsess about every little detail and losing time to them will make them even more so. Not having these players in to train them on all the mental pieces of the game will show the holes when they come back.

Listening to some vets interview on radio, a thing has stuck with me that we probably don't consider much. They ALL talk about how invaluable it is to take these talented rookies and really instill into them the importance of watching film, learning the opponent's tendencies, and in general being a professional. You hear it all the time: EVERYONE at this level has talent and some have more than others but what makes players really stand out is how the game is played "from the neck up". Guys will often say the league is "90% mental."

That's the piece that is missing, regardless of how player-organized activities are being done. Its just not the same.

So, yeah, its hard for me to imagine a rookie WR lighting the world on fire this season. They probably will still be good long term and for dynasty leagues but a real temper fo the expectations should be in order. I think its like ten times as profound for QBs. This is a lost year for rookie QBs.

I agree with the person above on the AJ vs. Julio point in that I can see Julio looking more valuable this time next year. I can definitely see people looking "by the numberS" and making a case for Julio. His numbers will probably be promising enough, people will be thinking that Roddy is 31 then and Julio should be surpassing him at some point. AJ, on the other hand may be feeling the effects of being mired in whatever results formt he Palmer/Dalton situation and, if nothing else, will trust where the Falcons are and will be long term over the Bengals.

AJ Green is a very interesting guy to me. I really get the possibility of him being very Crabtree-like. The talent is a given but if things get off to a rocky start with a so-so organization, this could be an underwhelming fantasy player. when you think about it, you just don't see dominant (and that is what a lot of people eventually expect of AJ) fantasy WRs that play for mediocre teams that don't have at least a couple of good years at times. Even AJ really didn't become AJ until the Texans markedly improved. I can see the Bengals being a 4-6 win team for the next 4 years or so. I think the reality of the situations wear on players more than we think about when we look at our FF players.

 

[Tchula]

Let us not also overlook that some rookies like Jones played in a pro style offense in college. They ought to be slightly ahead of those that didn't.

 

[Pandy Fackler]

....and Greg Little will be playing in virtually the same offense he played in(briefly) at NC

 

[Go deep]

If you're a believer in their talent, then I think you secure them now. Calvin Johnson never got any cheaper even after a 48/756/4 rookie year, far from mindblowing - because once people saw him on the field, they saw the talent.

He might not have gotten much cheaper, but he and Lynch were close in value being drafted 2 and 3 in most rookie drafts. After their rookie season Lynch was a first round draft pick in dynasty start-ups, and Calvin was going in the 3rd/4rth round. That was a perfect example of taking a guy you think is less talented because he would have more immediate value....based on the fact that WR's take longer to develop than RB's. Its a risky game to play, and i would probably say to just take the guy you think is better. However, i do think there are occasions to roll the dice, the tricky part is figuring out when.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

when you think about it, you just don't see dominant (and that is what a lot of people eventually expect of AJ) fantasy WRs that play for mediocre teams that don't have at least a couple of good years at times.

Calvin JohnsonLarry Fitzgerald (other than Super Bowl year, where they were actually only 9-7 anyway)Chad OchocincoBrandon MarshallAll just recent examples - sure there's many others throughout history.

 

[Zdravko]

Even if they struggle as you expect, that poor performance is already built into the current market price. Any owner who drafts AJ Green today knows he probably will have to wait a bit before top production. So I don't think you will see many owners lowering their asking price because of a bad rookie year. Besides, don't underestimate the psychological factors, such as the emotional attachment to your own players and the psychological commitment to players you spent a high pick on.

I think the earliest you will see a high-ranked rookie experience a notable drop in value is after year 2 and even that is rare. Look at Crabtree: to the independent eye, he has bust potential written all over in big red letters.

No meaningful stats.

Poor work ethic.

Diva mentality.

Doesn't get along with QB.

Won't work out with teammates.

Dropping in dynasty rankings.

And yet I haven't see anybody try to move him. The few times I've asked about him I get demands comparable to his value last year.

So, bottomline, if you think you may get AJ Green or Julio at a discount later, you might have to wait 2+ years.

 

[JamesTheScot]

While there are exceptions once in a great while, most people agree it's normally difficult for rookie WRs to grasp a pro-style offense. The whole "3rd-year reciever" theory pretty much revolves around that basic fact. Now, you have to add this lockout on top of that which is depriving these rookies of even beginning to acclimate to their respective offenses. No playbooks in some cases, no organized team practices in others, etc. And... if that's not enough, AJ Green is facing even more complications with the big uncertainty as to who's going to be under center in Cincy come week 1. Sprinkle on top the postponing of cuts and FA moves and you've got quite the Adversity Sundae for rooks to swallow.

The learning curve for these rookie WRs is literally getting steeper and steeper by the day, which leads me to think there's going to be massive struggles and these guys are going to put up a season that would even remotely reflect the potential and hype these guys are getting right now.

All of this leads me to wonder if guys like AJ or Julio can be had cheeper through trade later on, after a far from spectacular season, rather than spending a 1.01 or 1.02 picks now and passing on RB's who can be much more effective in their rookie and softmore campaigns.

With the learning curve this year being steeper than it ever has been, is 2011 the year to reconsider using high picks on rookie WRs?

The problem with this thinking is that people who took an AJ or Julio (like me) aren't expecting a smashing rookie season. We knew what the lock-out possibilities looked like when we took them. So when you come sniffing around acting like you're doing us a favor to take him off our hands, we know that you are still trying to get him because you think he's due the same as we are planning on keeping him because we think he's due.If anything, pride makes you hold longer than you should because you did invest so much into them.

 

[mjr]

So when you come sniffing around acting like you're doing us a favor to take him off our hands, we know that you are still trying to get him because you think he's due the same as we are planning on keeping him because we think he's due.

I obviously wouldn't make an attempt to obtain a player if I didn't believe he 'was due'. Who would? The real issue is patience. It took me 6 months to get Jamaal Charles for a 1.11 rookie draft pick, and even when I did finally get him, it was another year before he popped off. A year and a half of working a guy who was stubborn and believed Charles 'was due'. But here's the thing....Do you have the patience to afford to sit on a rookie who puts up one big game in every 5, misses two or three games here and there for whatever reason, puts up goose eggs every 4th week, etc. while you keep paying up your 60, 75 or 100 dollar dues every year while never making the playoffs? Cant be that good if you're picking 1.01 or 1.02. Right? It's not 100% about how much you believe.... Anyway....as for whether or not this lockout is affecting players...there's this:

(TheHuddle) Miami Dolphins WR Brian Hartline said during a radio interview that he believes the lockout is hurting the offense because it is taking time away from the players to learn offensive coordinator Brian Daboll's new offense. "Without a doubt, missing OTAs and missing some of these things is definitely putting us back a little bit," Hartline said. "We'll probably need a little extra time. We can function on the level where the fan, and the average eye, might not understand. But the comfort in the huddle, and kind of being on the exact same page, is going to take a little longer time."

 

[domvin]

Good thread......

I think the real bargains will be the later drafted rookie ers, and maybe even some qbs but im not overly wild sbout the qb class as a whole.

Guys like vincent brown and torrey smith could wind up exchanged for 2nd rounders next year based upon production or other extenuating factors......ie, steve smith signs with the chargers

 

[FavreCo]

The 3 year WR development thing is pretty much dead.

Pretty much. These days, by the 3rd year now you should know if the guys is not NFL material. Dwayne Jarrett for instance. Guys at WR now have to come right in and do something. Even a 6th rounder (I think) like Gettis did something last year.

 

[Mr.Underhill]

So when you come sniffing around acting like you're doing us a favor to take him off our hands, we know that you are still trying to get him because you think he's due the same as we are planning on keeping him because we think he's due.

I obviously wouldn't make an attempt to obtain a player if I didn't believe he 'was due'. Who would? The real issue is patience. It took me 6 months to get Jamaal Charles for a 1.11 rookie draft pick, and even when I did finally get him, it was another year before he popped off. A year and a half of working a guy who was stubborn and believed Charles 'was due'. But here's the thing....Do you have the patience to afford to sit on a rookie who puts up one big game in every 5, misses two or three games here and there for whatever reason, puts up goose eggs every 4th week, etc. while you keep paying up your 60, 75 or 100 dollar dues every year while never making the playoffs? Cant be that good if you're picking 1.01 or 1.02. Right? It's not 100% about how much you believe.... Anyway....as for whether or not this lockout is affecting players...there's this:

(TheHuddle) Miami Dolphins WR Brian Hartline said during a radio interview that he believes the lockout is hurting the offense because it is taking time away from the players to learn offensive coordinator Brian Daboll's new offense. "Without a doubt, missing OTAs and missing some of these things is definitely putting us back a little bit," Hartline said. "We'll probably need a little extra time. We can function on the level where the fan, and the average eye, might not understand. But the comfort in the huddle, and kind of being on the exact same page, is going to take a little longer time."

I might go so far as to say it's all about expectations rather than patience...if you have realistic expectations, you are more likely to exhibit what others perceive as patience.If someone drafted Green or Jones needing them to produce WR2 numbers this year, then yes, you have a good chance of getting them from that owner at the end of year one.

But I don't think too many people took those guys without knowing what they were getting into. So I don't think this lockout off-season is reason for some fundamental shift in what is essentially a pricing strategy. That uncertainty, which applies to all players, was already taken into account in purchase price.

And most of us tend to look for excuses and redemption after a poor rookie year rather than to write that player off and cut ties.

But give it a whirl.

 

[noneother]

I am sitting on Julio , Hankerson , baldwin, Tory smith and Greg salas this year. I am hoping all together they can turn into a start at my wr3 spot. Interchanging as performance or matchup allow.

Next year I want 2 every week starters out of that lot.

Then I'll dump whatever doesn't develop.

 

[bengalbuck]

I am sitting on Julio , Hankerson , baldwin, Tory smith and Greg salas this year. I am hoping all together they can turn into a start at my wr3 spot. Interchanging as performance or matchup allow. Next year I want 2 every week starters out of that lot. Then I'll dump whatever doesn't develop.

I will likely end up with AJ and Julio (I have 1.2 and 1.3 in upcoming rookie draft). I'm really hoping one of them becomes a solid WR3 as a rookie because I am likely to need one of them immediately.

 

[domvin]

I am sitting on Julio , Hankerson , baldwin, Tory smith and Greg salas this year. I am hoping all together they can turn into a start at my wr3 spot. Interchanging as performance or matchup allow. Next year I want 2 every week starters out of that lot. Then I'll dump whatever doesn't develop.

Solid haul of wrs from one draft. I'd assume Hankerson would maybe not pan out, and Baldwin value could go upif Bowe gets dealt.