WR 2's who become WR 1's since 1980 (1 Viewer)

[Joe T]

This data was gathered based on questions from another thread regarding Lee Evans.

Since 1980, 91 times has a player who led a team in receiving yards left his team the following season. Of those 91 times, there were 24 times that the #2 WR from the team the prior year was able to take over as the #1 WR the following year.

The following is a look at those 24 times that a #2 WR took over as the #1 WR.

Some quick notes before the data:

1. It is a little odd that only 26% of the time that the #2 from the prior year actually became the #1 the following year.

2. Only once since 1980 has a #2 WR taken over for the #1 WR and produced 1,000+ yards when the #1 WR didn't produce 1,000+ yards the prior year. This exception was the Sean Dawkins to Darrel Jackson transition in 2000 and 2001. Darrel's numbers in '01 were 70-1081-8. Can you say "TOP END"? Can you say, "Not likely to happen" since its only happened one in the last 26 years?

3. Only 42% of the time did the WR #2 from the prior year who took over as the #1 WR the next year actually out-produce the WR #1 from the prior year.

Okay. Here's the data. Hopefully we can draw more conclusions as we go. Tomorrow I will likely post the 67 WR's who were #2's on a team where the #1 left, but failed to capture the coveted #1 WR spot the following year.

The first line is the #1 WR from the prior year and his stats.

The second line is the #2 WR from the prior year and his stats the year he took over as the #1.

Enjoy:

Last	First	Year	Team	Games	Rec	Yards	TDMartin	Tony	1998	atl	16	66	1181	6Mathis	Terance	1999	atl	16	81	1016	6Lewis	Frank	1983	buf	11	36	486	3Franklin	Byron	1984	buf	16	69	862	4Ismail	Raghib	1998	car	16	69	1024	8Muhammad	Muhsin	1999	car	15	96	1253	8Gault	Willie	1987	chi	12	35	705	7McKinnon	Dennis	1988	chi	15	45	704	3Graham	Jeff	1995	chi	16	82	1301	4Conway	Curtis	1996	chi	16	81	1049	7Brown	Eddie	1991	cin	13	59	827	2McGee	Tim	1992	cin	16	35	408	3Harris	Duriel	1984	cle	11	32	512	2Brennan	Brian	1985	cle	12	32	487	0McKnight	James	2000	dal	16	52	926	2Ismail	Raghib	2001	dal	14	53	834	2Ismail	Raghib	2001	dal	14	53	834	2Galloway	Joey	2002	dal	16	61	908	6Lofton	James	1986	gnb	15	64	840	4Stanley	Walter	1987	gnb	12	38	672	3Sharpe	Sterling	1994	gnb	16	94	1119	18Brooks	Robert	1995	gnb	16	102	1497	13Fryar	Irving	1995	mia	16	62	910	8McDuffie	O.J.	1996	mia	16	74	918	8Early	Quinn	1995	nor	16	81	1087	8Haynes	Michael	1996	nor	16	44	786	4Timpson	Michael	1994	nwe	15	74	941	3Brisby	Vincent	1995	nwe	16	66	974	3Johnson	Keyshawn	1999	nyj	16	89	1170	8Chrebet	Wayne	2000	nyj	16	69	937	8Thigpen	Yancey	1997	pit	16	79	1398	7Johnson	Charles	1998	pit	16	65	815	7Barnwell	Malcolm	1984	rai	16	45	851	2Williams	Dokie	1985	rai	16	48	925	5Ellard	Henry	1993	ram	16	61	945	2Anderson	Flipper	1994	ram	16	46	945	5Ismail	Qadry	2001	rav	16	74	1059	7Taylor	Travis	2002	rav	16	61	869	6Jefferson	John	1980	sdg	16	82	1340	13Chandler	Wes	1981	sdg	12	52	857	5Chandler	Wes	1987	sdg	12	39	617	2Holland	Jamie	1988	sdg	16	39	536	1Dawkins	Sean	2000	sea	15	63	731	5Jackson	Darrell	2001	sea	16	70	1081	8Wilson	Cedrick	2004	sfo	15	47	641	3Lloyd	Brandon	2005	sfo	16	48	733	5Clark	Gary	1992	was	16	64	912	5Sanders	Ricky	1993	was	16	58	638	4

 

[Kevin Ashcraft]

Thats good work...I will analyze the #s more later, but the first look tells me that the instances of the former #2 outperforming his former mate happened more in the 1980-1995 range. I cant find a significant jump, minus the aformentioned SEA instance, in the last 10 seasons.

 

[bagger.]

 

[-OZ-]

Are we really sure Moulds was the #1 in Buffalo?

I mean, 30 more receptions, great. 10.1 ypr

70 more yards, that's great I guess

Evans - 15.5 ypr, 3 more TDs.

This doesn't strike me as a clear #1 / #2 situation, but a role.

How often has a team's possession WR moved on, and the deep threat stayed?

What has been the results?

 

[amnesiac]

cool.

maybe those nfl gms know things after all.

 

[jurb26]

Are we really sure Moulds was the #1 in Buffalo?

I mean, 30 more receptions, great. 10.1 ypr

70 more yards, that's great I guess

Evans - 15.5 ypr, 3 more TDs.

This doesn't strike me as a clear #1 / #2 situation, but a role.

How often has a team's possession WR moved on, and the deep threat stayed?

What has been the results?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Moss/Carter

 

[bagger.]

Are we really sure Moulds was the #1 in Buffalo?

I mean, 30 more receptions, great. 10.1 ypr

70 more yards, that's great I guess

Evans - 15.5 ypr, 3 more TDs.

This doesn't strike me as a clear #1 / #2 situation, but a role.

How often has a team's possession WR moved on, and the deep threat stayed?

What has been the results?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

let the rationalization begin.

 

[-OZ-]

Are we really sure Moulds was the #1 in Buffalo?

I mean, 30 more receptions, great. 10.1 ypr

70 more yards, that's great I guess

Evans - 15.5 ypr, 3 more TDs.

This doesn't strike me as a clear #1 / #2 situation, but a role.

How often has a team's possession WR moved on, and the deep threat stayed?

What has been the results?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

let the rationalization begin.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Rationalization / analysis

tomAto / tOmato

 

[Big Score]

One point I think being overlooked here. I'd say the WR surroundings need to factored in as well.

For example the Wilson / Lloyd comparison & just looking at their QB's.

In 2004 the 49er's QB rating averaged 57.65

In 2005 the 49er's QB rating averaged 53.90

(*Note* Took out Picketts 40.00 rating from both years, as he only attempted 10 & 35 passes respectively)

When you factor in the drop off in QB efficiency from 2004 to 2005, the fact that Lloyd outperformed Wilson by almost 100 yds & 3 TD's stands out a little more.

A lot of work to look at all the surrounding factors I know, but if it's not done, I don't think you will get an accurate read.

 

[bagger.]

Are we really sure Moulds was the #1 in Buffalo?

I mean, 30 more receptions, great. 10.1 ypr

70 more yards, that's great I guess

Evans - 15.5 ypr, 3 more TDs.

This doesn't strike me as a clear #1 / #2 situation, but a role.

How often has a team's possession WR moved on, and the deep threat stayed?

What has been the results?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

let the rationalization begin.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Rationalization / analysis

tomAto / tOmato

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

AnOmelet

 

[Joe T]

Are we really sure Moulds was the #1 in Buffalo?

I mean, 30 more receptions, great. 10.1 ypr

70 more yards, that's great I guess

Evans - 15.5 ypr, 3 more TDs.

This doesn't strike me as a clear #1 / #2 situation, but a role.

How often has a team's possession WR moved on, and the deep threat stayed?

What has been the results?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's why this discussion is tabled - when a teams leading receiver in terms of yardage leaves.

 

[Men-in-Cleats]

I wouldn't count the Darrell Jackson case as an exception in this in that I wouldn't keep it in the data set at all. Jackson had nearly identical yardage to Dawkins that year (less than 20 yards separating them), had a few less catches, and had one more TD. That is more of a 1A/1B situation than a 1/2. As far as Evans is concerned, I'd say that we won't know if he's capable of being the #1 until he gets some decent throws to catch from a legitimate NFL QB.

 

[SSOG]

I wouldn't count the Lee Evans case as an exception in this in that I wouldn't keep it in the data set at all.  Evans had nearly identical yardage to Moulds that year (73 yards separated them), had a few less catches, and had three more TDs.  That is more of a 1A/1B situation than a 1/2.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Edited a few names, see if you can see the difference.

 

[BlueOnion]

What about T.O. He was clearly the #2 guy behind Rice in 1998 but eventually became the #2 guy. I believe it was a a big hub-bub during Rice's last game as a 49er and T.O. had something like 19 catches and shunned Rice's farewell tribute.

 

[Spike]

What about T.O.  He was clearly the #2 guy behind Rice in 1998 but eventually became the #2 guy.  I believe it was a a big hub-bub during Rice's last game as a 49er and T.O. had something like 19 catches and shunned Rice's farewell tribute.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Owens was the first one who came to mind for me, as well.

 

[Joe T]

What about T.O.  He was clearly the #2 guy behind Rice in 1998 but eventually became the #2 guy.  I believe it was a a big hub-bub during Rice's last game as a 49er and T.O. had something like 19 catches and shunned Rice's farewell tribute.

It's a good question. But I see why it didn't show up in the formula. The formula I had only captures when a #1 WR leaves the team the following season. T.O. was actually the niners #1 WR in Rice's last season there.

Last First Year Catches Yards TDOwens Terrell 2000 97 1451 13Rice Jerry 2000 75 805 7

 

[Captain Spaulding]

I'd rather see the stats of the returning WR from the prior year when he was the #2 and then what his stats were after becoming #1 WR for the team the following year. That is the info. us fantasy owners really want to know (how much of a jump in WR rankings should we bump WR's in those situations, or not at all).

 

[Joe T]

I'd rather see the stats of the returning WR from the prior year when he was the #2 and then what his stats were after becoming #1 WR for the team the following year. That is the info. us fantasy owners really want to know (how much of a jump in WR rankings should we bump WR's in those situations, or not at all).

That is very easy to get.But the bump will be very small I can already warn you.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'd be curious to see a comparison between WR 1's in year X+1 do compared to WR 1's production in year X when they stay on the same team, vs. new WR 1/old WR 2's production in year X+1 compared to his production in year X.

(I hope that made some sense).

Basically, if all the Lee Evanses (old WR2, new WR1) in the data set perform the same as all the Chris Chamberses (old WR 1, still WR 1), that really changes the analysis.